In Peru, this year's rainy season has been devastating as heavy rains have continued since December last year, causing floods and landslides.

During this time, about 200,000 homes across the region were flooded or washed away by water currents, 700,000 people lost their homes. About 50 archaeological sites were damaged, the number of tourists decreased by more than three times, and since tourism is one of the three components of the country's economy, the flood caused serious damage to economic stability.

The overflowing waters of the Piura River (Piura) flooded the central part of the city of the same name, which is located in northwestern Peru, as well as other areas of this city, informs COEN. Ten thousand people affected by powerful floods were evacuated.

Hundreds of homes on the outskirts of Lima, Peru's capital, were submerged as the Rimac River overflowed its banks due to incessant rains. Emergency services managed to evacuate people, but their homes were completely destroyed. After the water subsided, the locals began to return to where their houses used to be. Without a roof over their heads, the poorest Peruvians were left, who settled on the cheapest land along the river.

As stated in the report of the ALLATRA SCIENCE community of scientists " " :

“People need to discard all frameworks and conventions, they need to consolidate here and now. Nature does not look at ranks and ranks when it unleashes its thousand-year-old wrath, and only a manifestation of true fellowship between people, based on human kindness, can give humanity a chance to survive.”

On Wednesday, February 8, a meeting of the regional commission for emergency situations and fire safety was held in Kaluga. One of the main topics of the meeting was the forthcoming spring flood.

For the last three years, it has been calm, without flooding of settlements. The level of water rise during the flood was significantly lower than the average multi-year values, - reported Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation for the Kaluga Region Viktor FEDORENKO. “But this year's winter shows that we shouldn't calm down. The amount of snowfall and ice thickness on water bodies exceed the long-term average values.

The winter weather regime in the Kaluga region was established at the end of October, a week and a half earlier than usual. Heavy snowfalls led to the fact that a stable snow cover was formed a month and a half earlier than the average multi-year periods.

The increase in snow cover proceeded at a rapid pace, as cool, with precipitation, weather prevailed. At the end of January, the height of the snow cover was from 30 to 40 cm, which is 10-20 cm more than the norm, - said Head of the Kaluga Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Valentina SEMYONOVA. - The moisture content of the snow cover at that time was 69.92 mm at a rate of 40.65 mm.

A steady freezing of the soil began one to two weeks earlier than usual. However, due to the large amount of snow that fell, the increase in the thickness of the frozen layer was not intense even during severe frosts. As of January 31, the ground was frozen by only 12-25 cm and only in some places - up to 35 cm. According to the average long-term indicators, the depth of the frozen layer by this time is 30-50 cm.

The thickness of the ice on the rivers of the Kaluga region as of February 1 is: on the Oka - 35 cm, on Zhizdra - 30 cm.

According to long-term weather forecasts, sub-zero temperatures are expected in our region throughout February. Positive weather will come around March 10th.

The forecast, when the rivers will open and what the water level will rise, will come on March 5, - added Valentina Semyonova. – I hope that everything will be fine if the night temperatures are below zero and warm up during the day. Since the ground is not very frozen, the water will slowly leave.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, with an unfavorable flood, the most difficult situation is possible in the Dzerzhinsky, Zhukovsky, Kozelsky districts and in Kaluga.

14 settlements can be flooded, up to 170 residential buildings with a population of more than 500 people, Viktor Fedorenko said. - As a result of active snowmelt, it is possible to flood individual buildings in settlements in Yukhnovsky, Maloyaroslavetsky and Borovsky districts.

To minimize possible negative consequences, the regional Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations is preparing a plan of the necessary measures for this. In the period from February 27 to March 10, the leadership of the Office will conduct a large-scale inspection in those municipalities whose territories may be flooded.

The leadership of the regional Rostekhnadzor is also concerned about some dams. Some of them are ownerless. The deplorable state of these HTS can cause serious problems during the spring flood. Read more about this in the next issue of Kaluga Crossing and in the news on our website.

March 14, 2017

The winter of 2016-2017 in most regions of the European part of Russia was close to normal - without prolonged thaws and mostly snowy.

Pre-winter soil moistening was heterogeneous: in the river basins of the north-west of the European part of Russia and in the Trans-Volga region, it was 15–60% higher than the norm; Don and Khoper - 25-30% less than the norm.

In most of the country, the soil was slightly frozen. In the river basins of the northwest, on the Upper Oka, the soil has frozen to 5-40 cm; in the basins of the Don, Khopra and Medveditsa - by 20-50 cm, and only in the Trans-Volga region and in the Southern Urals, the depth of soil freezing was 40-100 cm.

By the beginning of March 2017, in general, in the basin of the river. Volga, the water reserve in the snow cover was 136 mm (123% of the norm). In most private basins, the water reserves in the snow cover exceeded the usual values ​​by 15–35%, and only in the basins of the Moscow and Kama rivers, as well as the Volgograd reservoir, were they close to the norm. Almost throughout the river basin. Volga snow reserves were higher than last year by 17-49 mm, and in the basins of the river. Kama, Saratov and Volgograd reservoirs are close to them.

In the river basin Don above the Tsimlyansk reservoir, the water reserves in the snow amounted to 145% of the norm and were 56 mm higher than last year. In the basins of its eastern tributaries - pp. Khopra and Medveditsa - snow reserves amounted to 135 and 80% of the norm, respectively.

In the basins of rivers and reservoirs of Siberia, the water reserves in the snow at the end of February were mainly 85-161% of the norm. The largest reserves of water in the snow (150-160% of the norm) were observed on the Upper Ob and in the basin of the river. Tobol. In the basin of the Upper Yenisei, snow reserves exceeded the usual values ​​by 30-45%, and in the basin of the river. Angara and Lake Baikal, they were close to normal.

Opening of the ice of the rivers of the European part of the country in 2017

In early March, 20-25 days earlier than normal, the river opened up. Volga below the city of Volgograd, r. Dnieper below the city of Smolensk.

Calculations made by Roshydromet show that at the end of the first and second decades of March, 7-16 days earlier than normal, the opening of the river is expected. Oka above the mouth of the river. Moscow, Upper and Middle Don, r. Khoper below the mouth of the river. Crow, r. Dnieper above the city of Smolensk, as well as the river. Western Dvina.

In the third decade of March, 8-10 days earlier than normal, the opening of the river is expected. Volga above the city of Tver, r. Oka below the mouth of the river. Moksha, Sura and Khoper above the mouth of the river. Voron, rivers of the Pskov, Novgorod regions and the Zavolzhsky regions of the Saratov region.

The formation of dangerous ice jams is possible when the lower reaches of the river are opened from ice. Shelon, Lovat, Msta, Pola, Pasha, Oyat, Syasi, rivers of the Republic of Karelia (rivers Ivina, Vodla, Shuya), small steppe and mountain rivers of the Republic of Bashkortostan, as well as the Belaya and Ufa rivers; Northern Dvina (section of the village of Brin-Navolok - village of Yemetsk), Pinega (village of Nizhnyaya Palenga), Mezen (village of Lampozhnya), Pechora (city of Naryan-Mar).

Maximum levels of spring flood on the rivers of the European part of the country in 2017

As a result of the hydrometeorological conditions prevailing by the beginning of March, it can be expected that the flood of 2017 in the south, west and center of the European part of the country will be lower than usual. In the basins of the river In Kostroma, Unzha, Vyatka, Kama, Ural, rivers of the Trans-Volga region, flood maxima will be above the norm, in other river basins - mostly close to it.

With the friendly development of spring processes, as well as in the event of heavy rains and the formation of ice jams, the highest maximum water levels (by 0.5-1.0 m, in some places up to 1.5 m above the norm) are expected on the river. Kostroma, Unzha, Sukhona, Vaga, Vologda, Vyatka, the upper reaches of the Kama and its tributaries, Belaya, Ufa, the rivers of the Samara region and the Volga regions of the Saratov region, as well as in the Ural river basin.

Below the norm (by 1.0-1.5 m, in some places up to 2.5-4.9 m), the maximum flood levels will be on the Don, Oka, Upper Dnieper and most of their tributaries, as well as on the Pskovskaya, south of Leningrad and north Kaliningrad regions.

On the other rivers of the European part of the country, flood maxima are expected to be mostly close to the norm.

Opening of the ice of the rivers of the Asian part of the country in 2017

Ice break-up of most of the rivers in the Asian part of the country is expected in terms that are mostly close to the norm.

Earlier than usual (by 3-5, in some places up to 15 days) ice drift will begin on the Upper Ob and Upper Yenisei.

The formation of dangerous ice jams is possible on the river. Ob (near the city of Kamen-na-Obi, in the sections of the village of Nikolskoye - the village of Molchanovo, the city of Kolpashevo - the village of Kargasok), in separate sections of the Biya, Charysh, Chumysh, Tom rivers (in the region of the city of Tomsk), Mras-Su, Kondoma, Berd, Inya, Baksa, Karasuk, on the Irtysh, Northern Sosva, on the rivers of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, on the Yenisei (near the city of Kyzyl, in the sections of the village of Nazimovo - the village of Podkamennaya Tunguska, the city of Igarka - Dudinka), on Podkamennaya Tunguska (estuary section), Nizhnyaya Tunguska (section of Tura village - mouth). With a friendly and early spring, traffic jams are possible on the river. Abakan, Tuba, Kan, Taseeva, Chulym and their tributaries, on the Biryus, Kirenga, Lena (in the upper and middle reaches, including in the suburbs of Yakutsk), on the Aldan (within the Tomponsky district), on the rivers Yana, Indigirka , Kolyma (section of the Ust-Srednekanskaya hydroelectric power station - the village of Ust-Srednekan), Taui (section of the village of Talon - the village of Balagannoye), on the rivers of the Trans-Baikal Territory (Argun, Shilka, Ingoda, Nercha, Vitim, Selenga, Chikoy, Khilok), on the Upper and Lower Amur, Khor, Anyui, Tumnin, Uda, as well as on the rivers of the Jewish Autonomous Region.

Maximum spring flood levels on the rivers of the Asian part of the country in 2017

In the Asian part of the country, the highest flood maxima (by 0.5-1.5 m, in some places up to 2.7 m above the norm) are expected on the Ob to the mouth of the Tym River, Irtysh, Ishim, Tobol, Upper Kolyma and their tributaries, as well as on the rivers of the Primorsky Territory, the south of the Kamchatka Territory and the south of the Sakhalin Region.

Below the usual (by 0.5-1.0 m, in some places up to 1.6 m) there will be flood maxima on the Yenisei below the mouth of the Angara, Upper Lena, Podkamennaya Tunguska, Lower Tunguska, Nadym and Kazym.

On the other rivers of the Asian part of the country, flood maxima are expected to be mostly close to the norm.

With the friendly development of the spring flood during the passage of its maxima, flooding of the lowered coastal parts of the following settlements is possible:

-Tikhvin, Tosno, Lyuban (Leningrad region);

-gg. Kursk, Rylsk, with. Lebyazhye (Kursk region);

-with. Ushcherpie (Bryansk region);

-with. Kuzmina Gat (Tambov region);

-Ostashkov, it is also possible flooding of floodplain areas in the basins of the rivers Mologa (near the village of Maksatikha), Zapadnaya Dvina (near the city of Zapadnaya Dvina), Obsha (near the city of Bely), Mezha near the village of Zharkovsky (Tver region);

-Kirov (Kirov region);

-Nizhny Novgorod (Nizhny Novgorod region);

-low coastal areas of individual villages and villages in the basins of the Kostroma, Unzha and Vetluga rivers in the Buysky, Soligalichsky, Makaryevsky, Manturovsky, Neysky, Vokhomsky, Ponazyrevsky and Sharyinsky districts (Kostroma and Nizhny Novgorod regions);

-Alatyr (Chuvash Republic);

-gg. Ufa, Birsk, Sterlitamak (Republic of Bashkortostan);

-gg. Velsk and Shenkursk (Arkhangelsk region);

-low coastal areas of individual villages and villages located on the rivers Sviyaga, Selda (Ulyanovsk region), in the upper reaches of Samara (Orenburg region), on the rivers Syzran, Bolshoy Cheremshan, Sok, Kondurcha, Samara, Bolshoi and Maly Kinel, Chapaevka, Chagra ( Samara Region);

-low coastal areas of settlements located on the Kazanka, Mesha, Sheshma, Dymka, Kubnya, Xun and Ik rivers (Republic of Tatarstan);

-low coastal areas of settlements, bridges, roads, economic facilities located in the floodplains of the rivers Veslyana, Kosa, Inva near the city of Kudymkar (Perm Territory), Chusovaya, Sylva, Tura, Nica near the city of Irbit, Sosva (Sverdlovsk region), Tobol near the city of Kurgan (Kurgan region), Ui, Iset near the city of Dalmatovo, Sim near the city of Asha and the city of Minyar, Ai near the cities. Zlatoust and Kusa (Chelyabinsk region), as well as flooding of the floodplain and economic facilities on the frozen small rivers of the Chelyabinsk region;

-coastal areas of settlements, summer cottages and economic facilities on the river. Ob (near the village of Ust-Charyshskaya Pristan, Barnaul, Kamen-on-Ob), r. Katun near the village Joints, Charysh near the village. Beloglazovo (Altai Territory), on the river. Tom (Mezhdurechensk, Novokuznetsk, Krapivino village, Kemerovo), r. Kondoma (near the village of Kuzedeevo), r. Mras-Su (Myski town), r. Kiya near the city of Mariinsk (Kemerovo region), on the Ob near the city of Novosibirsk (Novosibirsk region), near the village. Molchanovo, Kolpashevo, with. Kargasok, r. Tom (Tomsk), r. Chulym (v. Teguldet, v. Baturino), r. Tea at the village Podgornoye (Tomsk region);

-flooding of drainless low areas of the terrain of the southern regions of the Omsk and Tyumen regions with melt water;

-settlements located along the banks of the rivers Tuba, Kan, Kas (Krasnoyarsk Territory);

-Kyzyl (Republic of Tyva);

-settlements, agricultural lands located along the banks of the rivers Biryusa, Upper Lena, Kirenga, Lower Tunguska, Iya and their tributaries (Irkutsk region);

-low areas of settlements located on the Lena (in the Lensky, Olekminsky and Namsky districts, in the suburbs of Yakutsk), on the river. Kolyma near the village of Zyryanka and the city of Srednekolymsk (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia));

-settlements located along the banks of the rivers: Spasovka (the city of Spassk-Dalniy), Ussuri (Chuguevsky, Kirovsky, Lesozavodsky, Dalnerechensky districts), Arsenyevka (Yakovlevsky district), Ilistaya (Chernigov district), Malinovka, Bolshaya Ussurka (Krasnoarmeisky, Dalnerechensky districts ) in Primorsky Krai;

-in the river basin Tym and rivers of the northern regions of the Sakhalin region;

-with. Markovo, Vaegi, Ilirney, Chuvanskoye, Keperveem (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug).

In the Southern, North Caucasian, Volga, Urals and in the south of the Siberian federal districts, during the passage of spring floods, breakthroughs of unemptied ponds on small rivers and related flooding are possible.

According to preliminary estimates, water inflow in the second quarter is expected to:

In the reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade 150-184 km 3 (norm 161 km 3);

To the Tsimlyansk reservoir 5.0-7.0 km 3 (norm 10.4 km 3);

In the reservoirs of the Angara-Yenisei cascade 65.7-83.7 km 3 (norm 78.7 km 3), including in the Sayano-Shushenskoye reservoir - 18.1-22.8 km 3 (norm 20.2 km 3) ,

and the Irkutsk reservoir (Lake Baikal - 18.1-22.8 km 3, the norm is 23.6 km 3).

Russian scientists have made a disappointing forecast of the impact of global warming on the Arctic regions: the permafrost will melt, which could cause eight regions of the country to be flooded at once.

Ural scientists from the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Physics of Ural Federal University, in cooperation with colleagues from several institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as from France, Germany and Japan, are preparing to create a verified model by 2020 that predicts what will happen to the climate of the Arctic part of Russia in the next 50 years, transmits.

Data collected over several years on the isotopic composition of water, as well as on the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (primarily carbon dioxide and methane) and measurements of the melting of glaciers with permafrost, lead scientists to disappointing conclusions.

“According to monitoring data at various international stations, the temperatures of the permafrost layer in the Arctic have changed a lot over 50 years. Previously, it was about minus 10 degrees, by 2015 it is already about minus 5 degrees. When it is plus 1 degree, the frozen soil will melt and everything will collapse. In five years, with the naked eye, we probably won’t notice the difference yet, but in 50 years it will be a disaster. Even, perhaps, faster, since now all processes are on the rise, ”says Vyacheslav Zakharov, head of the laboratory of climate and environmental physics of Ural Federal University, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences.

At positive temperatures, the permafrost will melt, the landscape will change, and the permafrost zone will turn into a heavily flooded area.

“Permafrost in Western Siberia begins at about 63 degrees north latitude. Further to the east of Russia, it descends even lower to the south to 60 degrees. The characteristic thickness of the permafrost layer in Western Siberia is 20 m, further to the east there are depths of 200 and even 500 m. The thinnest permafrost layers in Western Siberia are the first to melt, which is quite understandable. Imagine: everything will go down by 20 meters and fill with water. It will flood all the cities of Yamal: Salekhard, Novy Urengoy, Labytnangi. Accordingly, the entire oil and gas infrastructure will disappear, all oil and gas pipelines. The same Bovanenkovo, the port of Sabetta and so on,” says Zakharov.

The territories of eight regions of Russia fall into the risk zone, including the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions, the Komi Republic, the Yamalo-Nenets district, the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Yakutia.

In the more distant future, if nothing is done, the ice sheet of Greenland and Antarctica will melt, then a significant part of Europe will be flooded, scientists say. On land left unflooded, "there will be such a climate that life as we know it at the present time will certainly not remain."

Earlier, French scientists stated that due to global warming, the Siberian permafrost may begin to thaw, and this is within the next 35 years of residential and industrial buildings in the region.

The Ministry of Emergency Situations has made a preliminary forecast and already has certain views for the spring. They were shared with RG journalists by the country's chief rescuer, Vladimir Puchkov. True, the minister emphasized that the forecast is not a sentence, and the most accurate prediction can be made only three days in advance. The head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations told how rescuers interact with local authorities and the population, preparing for predictable threats. What new technology will help save people's lives in natural and man-made disasters. With such training, rescuers are guided by the results of scientific modeling and computer forecasts of emergency situations.

What are these predictions for 2017?

Vladimir Puchkov: First of all, it should be noted that the preliminary emergency forecast for 2017 was compiled by specialists from the Antistichia Center with the participation of scientific and other organizations. At the same time, the forecast is constantly being refined, its detailing up to the object level.

Having received the calculations of scientists at its disposal, our national Crisis Management Center takes into account this forecast and takes control of measures aimed at reducing the risks of emergencies.

The analysis of risks shows that in most cases, emergency situations leading to serious damage, loss of life and disruption to the life of the population are floods, natural fires, accidents at public utilities and the electric power industry, and transport.

In recent years, unfortunately, there has been a trend of increasing extreme deviations, primarily climatic: abnormal frosts in Siberia and the Urals, floods in the Amur in 2013 and in Primorye last year, abnormal heat in 2010 in Central Russia.

The Ministry of Emergency Situations has already reported that there is now twice as much snow, especially in Siberia, than usual. Does this mean that the regions are waiting for a guaranteed serious flood? And how can this be avoided?

Vladimir Puchkov: We have 32 subjects of the Russian Federation today are under special control on issues of spring floods.

We once again checked the state of engineering structures, set the task of putting in order all the facilities that are involved in the regulation of wastewater. And we coordinated all plans, schedules, put all these issues under strict control.

Secondly, a powerful grouping of forces has been formed, which is already engaged in the prevention of spring floods, and directly carries out measures for blackening and sawing ice.

We state that a serious flood is expected in the territory of Siberia, the Far East, the North-West

Prepared mobile task forces. Monitoring of the state of the ice cover, snow cover, and moisture reserves has been strengthened. And a clear schedule for changing weather conditions. The timing of ice and snow melt is very important.

So spring will be early or late?

Vladimir Puchkov: Spring will come... This is the main thing. But seriously, the spring, according to estimates, should be average. But there may be deviations from the norm.

We have 85 subjects of the Russian Federation. Today we have minus 50 and below in the North, and in the south we have regions today where it is plus 18-20 degrees.

When and where the anomalous heat will come, it will become clear a little later. But I will say for sure that the Ministry of Emergency Situations will bring this information and each region will receive clear information, taking into account changes in the temperature field.

And yet, I want to know about the threatening dangers as early as possible, since a huge number of our population lives in risk areas. Some regions in our country are generally smoothly moving from one natural disaster to another. What are the main threats you see, how are you preparing for them? Where should you pay special attention because it can be dangerous?

Vladimir Puchkov: Today we note, firstly, in the natural sphere, natural risks associated with cyclical changes in weather conditions.

Moreover, the schedule for changing weather conditions changes every year.

Because in the past few years we have literally been breaking records for both sub-zero temperatures and positive temperatures in a number of regions of our country. Therefore, I would note all the risks associated with the cyclical nature.

We state that a serious flood is expected in the territory of Siberia, the Far East, the North-West and high risks of a surge wave in the southern territories. This is the first.

Second: everything related to natural phenomena. The Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the emergence of new risks of hazards and threats in the form of tornadoes, heavy rains in those regions where this has traditionally not been.

If Primorsky Krai is ready for natural disasters every year, today we are noticing such trends in the south of our country, in the central part, in the Volga region and in a number of other regions.

We also note the high risks of natural phenomena that will affect the sustainable operation of the entire transport support system. This primarily concerns regional roads and local roads.

We also carried out an additional forecast and we have under special control all potentially dangerous zones where the risks of an earthquake remain. This is the North Caucasus, the south of Siberia, this is traditionally the Far East.

And, of course, volcanic activity in the zone of action of the main volcanoes will continue. These are also natural risks.

As for man-made emergencies...

Vladimir Puchkov: Energy facilities are most exposed to the risks of emergencies, especially in municipalities. These are objects of transport communications. And, of course, housing and communal services.

Since 2017, we have left under special control all issues of the safety of the operation of the gas facilities. Because in this area, unfortunately, we are seeing growth.

How can you improve the situation and ensure safety with gas matters in residential buildings?

Vladimir Puchkov: We have prepared a whole system of events. On behalf of the President of the Russian Federation, amendments are being made to the legislation of the Russian Federation, defining the responsibility of all organizations involved in the operation and maintenance of the gas facilities. In addition, the work of integrated interdepartmental groups to inspect gas facilities should be organized on an ongoing basis, and not on a case-by-case basis, which should include representatives of the Goszhilnadzor bodies, employees of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, specialists from Rostekhnadzor, as well as representatives of service organizations.

And, of course, people should not forget that rescuers are always ready to help and provide it professionally, but it is important that the message about the required assistance arrives in a timely manner.

Read a detailed report on the "Business Breakfast" with Vladimir Puchkov in one of the next issues of Rossiyskaya Gazeta.