Now, after a year, knowing the result, it is very interesting to make a comparison. What did he say then - and what actually happened. As they say - who was right, and who - a lion. Let's just read the quotes and compare. Note which side he constantly takes, where he draws information from.
Interview to InterpressNews Agency 05.07.2008. There is still a month before the war, but the situation is already heating up, the possibility of starting hostilities is in the air.
"It is clear that the Georgian side will not initiate the conflict, but if a military conflict starts, as far as I know, the Georgians are not going to retreat. The headquarters are ready to start operations."
"Saakashvili wants to go to Moscow, but the Russian troops are already in Abkhazia" NG. 28.07. 2008
"Since 2004, after Saakashvili came to power, the Georgian army was reformed at an accelerated pace and sparing no expense, given the possibility of a conflict with separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Modern Western weapons were purchased, including Israeli Hermes-450 drones, which The drones posed a serious problem last year and the authorities in Sukhumi announced last fall that they would shoot them down, but only six months later, Abkhazians say they shot down only four vehicles. Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia Ekaterina Zguladze acknowledges the loss of only one Hermes-450, which was shot down on April 20, according to Tbilisi, by a Russian fighter, since the Abkhaz have no real opportunity to do so.
The Georgians have Israeli self-propelled howitzers and an Israeli computerized fire control and target designation system that integrates different types of weapons on the battlefield, capable of using GPS data on the enemy received from Israeli drones, of which there are several dozen different sizes and purposes. There are 32 thousand regular troops in the staff of the Ministry of Defense and 15 thousand people in the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In 2008, $800 million was allocated for defense, but by the end of the year this amount is likely to grow one and a half to two times. There are up to 65 thousand reservists of varying degrees of readiness. Active retraining of reservists is now underway (although, according to Kezerashvili, "this is not connected with the current conflict").
One airborne battalion is clearly not enough to "teach Georgia a lesson." If it comes to shooting, it will be a long and bloody conflict with an uncertain end result."
BBC interview. 08 August 2008 09:58 GMT 13:58 MCK (Note that the war has already begun, the Georgians are shelling Tskhinval, they have already entered there. It seems to them that they have already won, a sea of victorious reports is coming from the Georgian side. The 58th army has already begun advance, but there is still a whole day before direct contact with the Georgians.Pay attention to where Pavel gets his information).
"The Georgians are very well prepared. They have very good army forces, perhaps the best in the CIS. They were able to carry out an offensive operation at night, conducting high-precision artillery fire and simply swept away the Ossetians.
There is no assault on Tskhinvali, there is its blocking. Tskhinvali is completely blocked, the Ossetians are swept away, the approaching columns are stopped by air strikes. Precise artillery fire was fired at Tskhinvali itself, selective government buildings in the center were destroyed there. The Georgians have Israeli artillery, which can fire according to GPS data with an accuracy of several meters.
They are not taking Tskhinvali, they are blocking it. Why should they get involved in bloody urban battles, besides, there are Russian peacekeepers there. They go around the city. They have complete superiority in army power and quality. They can carry out a night army offensive operation. Not only the Ossetians, but also the Russian armed forces cannot do this....
There will be very heavy losses among the Russian troops and there will be thousands of losses, including our aviation. We will have to face a fairly serious Georgian air defense system. This is not for you to drive militants across the North Caucasus. You have to understand that you will have to fight for the Ossetians and suffer very heavy losses. Otherwise it is necessary to agree politically. I hope that now the fire will stop, and the search will begin for how Ossetia will return to Georgia. There doesn't seem to be any other option right now."
"How Georgia Approached the War" NG 10.08. (August 10. The Russian Air Force and artillery have been destroying Georgian troops around Tskhinval and communications in Georgia for 2 days already. The 58th army was drawn into Ossetia, the first 2 Russian battalions entered Tskhinval. The Georgians retreated, they are still in South Ossetia, but the soldiers began to throw their weapons and run , the command is losing control, and at that moment reservists are being gathered in Georgia itself. The reservists will begin to scatter only tomorrow - 11.08., but the Georgians themselves do not know this yet.) Pavel writes:
“The Georgian military launched a night army offensive operation in South Ossetia at midnight on August 8 and literally swept away Ossetian formations from the battlefield in just a few hours. ... But the Georgian army has not yet been defeated, and as a result of mobilization deployment, its strength and combat capabilities will only increase. "The Russian military, thrown into South Ossetia, remains in the zone of destruction of Georgian artillery. In October, the Caucasian passes will be covered with snow until the end of next May. And the weather in the mountains will be almost constantly non-flying. Our military may find themselves in a desperate situation."
We know what happened next in South Ossetia. Pavel Felgenhauer - this genius of military-political forecasting and "impartial" observer - disappears from sight for the whole 2 weeks. Probably, he is trying to realize the reality that has finally eluded him, to understand why everything that the Georgians told him so confidently came true exactly the opposite, and to figure out what to say to readers after he “screwed up” the forecasts so much. He simply disappears from the horizon and appears only on August 25 with an article that, after all that he said before, is called very symbolically: "And what about the trophies?"
Great analyst! Did you pay attention from what, from whose positions does he cover the war? It just catches the eye! A person covers the war exclusively from the Georgian side, draws information entirely and only there. There is no question of any impartiality, no analysis! The analysis primarily implies a comparison of the positions of the parties, but there is no trace of this here - only the data of the Georgian side are available. Why is he called RUSSIAN columnist? Let's call him a GEORGIAN observer, a GEORGIAN analyst. It will be perfectly fair. What he does is also necessary! But let's call a spade a spade, this is not an "independent analysis", but simply a mechanical pouring out of the position of the Georgian authorities on the Russian people. Imagine how if the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper received all its materials from the press service of the White House. Felgenhauer is exactly the same.
But the question is not in it! Everything is clear here. The question is in ourselves. What kind of people are we? Next to us lives a man who constantly, and even more so at a difficult, decisive time for Russia and for our allies, speaks unequivocally from defeatist, from alien, from enemy positions. And we read it, listen to it, someone believes it. Believe me, if this happened in the country where Pavel was born - in the mega-democratic USA - on the eve or during the Iraqi or Serbian campaigns, then public outrage - the anger of the public (moreover, absolutely sincere!) Would be so great that Pasha would have been made just an outcast of society, its most despised member. Of course, they wouldn’t put him in jail, but they would stop shaking hands and boycott his newspaper would be such that after that the “big analyst” would simply be thrown out of there.
Why are we different? We must take into service all the most advanced and democratic ...
Andrey Epifantsev, independent political scientist
The profession of a journalist is quite difficult, but at the same time interesting and unpredictable. Communication with people, reviewing significant events, trips to hitherto unknown places and many other features of this intermittent work attract inexperienced young people, intriguing and exciting the imagination. Military observers who make predictions about the outcome of certain events are a complex and responsible business. Not every person wants, and simply not everyone is able, to engage in this kind of activity. Molecular biology, genetic engineering and other scientific research that is understandable only to the elite and knowledgeable in the matter - this is generally from the realm of science fiction. Is it possible to combine these three things at once, if hobbies and hobbies in life are history? The answer is obvious: it is possible, and not just to combine, but to be among those who are good at it. Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich is the person who proved by deed that it is possible to be diversified in absolutely opposite areas, benefiting society.
Felgenhauer's parents
Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich, whose biography is quite interesting, talks about his parents with great pleasure. His father is an American, who at the age of 17 (1937) was brought to Russia by his parents. Then everything changed for the young man in an instant: place of residence, citizenship, name and surname, but excellent knowledge of the English language remained unchanged. This made the choice of his future profession obvious. He became a translator and, in fact, devoted his whole life to this work. Although the mother was Russian, the Felgenhauer family (Pavel Evgenievich mentioned this more than once in interviews) was anti-Soviet. In this case, it means that there were American books and textbooks in the house, foreign radio was listened to, which was banned at that time by the government.
Childhood and memories of him
Pavel Evgenievich recalls the time of his childhood with great pleasure. In his interviews, he claims that he did not experience any special problems with Soviet bans on "foreigners": foreign radio stations were not jammed by the government, hoping that the population did not know English, and thanks to his father, he not only knew a foreign dialect, but also spoke it fluently . Felgenhauer's parents were friends with immigrants from the United States of America and other foreign citizens: this is a huge number of families with their children. Pavel Evgenievich himself jokingly calls them a "secret society".
Where to go to study? What to choose
Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich was born on December 6, 1951 in the capital of Russia, the most beautiful city of Moscow. He always studied excellently, he was interested in many things, he was a rather versatile boy. After graduating from secondary school, the question arose of where to go to study further. The young man himself was seriously interested in history and even thought about going to history. After consulting with adults, he changed his mind, because studying at the history department obliged him to be in the party, which Felgenhauer categorically did not want, and the competition for the place was very big. Then the young guy decided to connect his life with science and easily entered the Faculty of Biology at Moscow State University (MGU). After graduating in 1975, he worked in his specialty for a long time, doing genetic research.
Hard times
During the collapse of the Soviet Union, when there was devastation and chaos in our country, Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich changed his place of work. His choice was journalism: during the so-called perestroika, science was not in demand, a great need fell on the competent presentation of information and high-quality articles printed in newspapers. From 1993 to 1995, Pavel Evgenievich worked in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, and then until 1999 in the information publication Segodnya as a military observer. By the way, once, when Felgenhauer was asked why he chose the military path, he replied that it was his hobby from childhood - to be interested in military operations, monitor situations and make predictions about the upcoming decisions of certain political figures. For example, he predicted heavy human losses in the five-day military operations of Georgia directed towards Ossetia on August 8, 2008, and also warned of casualties in the Donbass.
Personal life
Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich, whose personal life has developed a very long time, has been happily married for many years. His wife is a candidate of philosophical sciences Elena Felgenhauer, who was born and raised in the city of Tashkent. By the time the relationship of the spouses was just beginning to develop, Elena had already managed to be married and give birth to a daughter, Tatyana, from her first husband. However, when she legalized relations with Felgenhauer, the girl was adopted by him and recorded by his last name. At the moment, Tatyana Felgenhauer is an adult woman who followed in the footsteps of her adoptive father. She became a journalist and now works as a deputy editor-in-chief at the Ekho Moskvy radio station. By the way, Pavel Evgenievich himself prepares some issues for the air.
Interesting facts about the journalist, biologist and military observer
Felgenhauer Pavel Evgenievich, whose photo can be seen in informational publications and on the personal page of the social network Facebook, where he has been blogging for a long time, managed to acquire some interesting achievements throughout his career:
- Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin personally presented him with an award for his participation in the suppression of the August coup that took place in Moscow in 1991. It was the medal "Defender of Free Russia".
- In 1987 he became a candidate of sciences, having defended his dissertation.
After the collapse of the USSR, he went into journalism. He worked as a full-time military observer for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1991-1993) and the Segodnya newspaper (1993-1999). He was a member of the editorial board of the latest edition. Since 1999, not being a full-time employee of any media, he has been acting as an independent military observer and analyst. The author's materials of the journalist are published on the pages of The Moscow Times and Novaya Gazeta newspapers, and his expert opinions can be found in a number of Russian and foreign media.
By Decree No. 174 of February 2, 1993, Boris Yeltsin was awarded the medal "Defender of Free Russia" for participating in the suppression of the August 1991 putsch.
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An excerpt characterizing Felgenhauer, Pavel Evgenievich
At the same time, at ten o'clock in the morning on September 2, Napoleon stood between his troops on Poklonnaya Hill and looked at the spectacle that opened before him. From August 26 to September 2, from the Battle of Borodino to the entry of the enemy into Moscow, all the days of this anxious, this memorable week, there was that extraordinary autumn weather, which always surprises people, when the low sun heats hotter than in spring, when everything glitters in the rare, clean air so that it hurts the eyes when the chest grows stronger and fresher, inhaling the odorous autumn air, when the nights are even warm and when in these dark warm nights from the sky incessantly, frightening and delighting, golden stars are pouring.On September 2, at ten o'clock in the morning, the weather was like this. The sparkle of the morning was magical. Moscow from Poklonnaya Gora spread out spaciously with its river, its gardens and churches, and it seemed to live its own life, quivering like stars, its domes in the rays of the sun.
At the sight of a strange city with unprecedented forms of extraordinary architecture, Napoleon experienced that somewhat envious and restless curiosity that people experience when they see the forms of an alien life that does not know about them. Obviously, this city lived with all the forces of its life. By those indefinable signs by which, at a long distance, a living body is unmistakably recognized from a dead one. Napoleon from Poklonnaya Gora saw the trembling of life in the city and felt, as it were, the breath of this large and beautiful body.
- Cette ville asiatique aux innombrables eglises, Moscou la sainte. La voila donc enfin, cette fameuse ville! Il etait temps, [This Asiatic city with countless churches, Moscow, their holy Moscow! Here it is, finally, this famous city! It's time!] - said Napoleon and, getting off his horse, ordered the plan of this Moscou to be laid out in front of him and called the translator Lelorgne d "Ideville. "Une ville occupee par l" ennemi ressemble a une fille qui a perdu son honneur, [City occupied by the enemy , is like a girl who has lost her innocence.] - he thought (as he said this to Tuchkov in Smolensk). And from this point of view, he looked at the oriental beauty lying in front of him, which he had never seen before. It was strange to him that, at last, his long-standing, which seemed to him impossible, wish had come true. In the clear morning light, he looked first at the city, then at the plan, checking the details of this city, and the certainty of possession thrilled and terrified him.
“But how could it be otherwise? he thought. - Here it is, this capital, at my feet, waiting for its fate. Where is Alexander now and what does he think? Strange, beautiful, majestic city! And strange and majestic this minute! In what light do I present myself to them! he thought of his troops. “Here it is, the reward for all these unbelievers,” he thought, looking around at those close to him and at the troops approaching and lining up. - One word of mine, one movement of my hand, and this ancient capital of des Czars perished. Mais ma clemence est toujours prompte a descendre sur les vaincus. [kings. But my mercy is always ready to descend to the vanquished.] I must be magnanimous and truly great. But no, it's not true that I'm in Moscow, it suddenly occurred to him. “However, here she lies at my feet, playing and trembling with golden domes and crosses in the rays of the sun. But I will spare her. On the ancient monuments of barbarism and despotism, I will write great words of justice and mercy ... Alexander will understand this most painfully, I know him. (It seemed to Napoleon that the main significance of what was happening was his personal struggle with Alexander.) From the heights of the Kremlin - yes, this is the Kremlin, yes - I will give them the laws of justice, I will show them the meaning of true civilization, I will force generations boyars lovingly commemorate the name of their conqueror. I will tell the deputation that I did not and do not want war; that I waged war only against the false policy of their court, that I love and respect Alexander, and that I will accept peace conditions in Moscow worthy of me and my peoples. I do not want to take advantage of the happiness of war to humiliate the respected sovereign. Boyars - I will tell them: I do not want war, but I want peace and prosperity for all my subjects. However, I know that their presence will inspire me, and I will tell them, as I always say: clear, solemn and great. But is it really true that I'm in Moscow? Yes, here she is!
On Sunday, November 25, combat boats of the border service of the FSB of the Russian Federation, with the support of the Black Sea Fleet, attacked and captured a pair of boats of the Ukrainian Navy - "Nikopol" and "Berdyansk" - which, accompanied by a tugboat, tried to pass into the Sea of Azov, heading to Mariupol. According to the 2003 agreement, which Moscow continues to consider valid, the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait are considered joint Ukrainian-Russian inland waters. Moscow claims it has the right to keep foreign warships out, while the Ukrainian Navy believes it has the right to pass.
Our authorities and state propaganda had to work hard, coming up with suitable explanations for why Ukrainian boats were first not allowed into the Sea of Azov for a long time, and then, when they were eventually forced to turn back home, to Odessa (for small boats of the Gyurza-M type, the duration of an autonomous sailing only 5 days), the Russian military (border guards), in the absence of any external threat, opened fire and wounded three Ukrainian sailors (according to information from Ukrainian sources, 6 were wounded). Ukrainian boats and a tug with crews (either 23 or 24 people according to various sources) were taken prisoner and taken to Kerch.
Small armored artillery boat "Berdyansk" of the Ukrainian Navy, detained and moored in the port of Kerch. Photo: RIA Novosti
River boats "Gyurza-M" have a crew of 5 people, bulletproof armor and two combat modules from the land-based BM-3 "Shturm" at the stern and at the bow, each with a 30-mm automatic cannon, automatic grenade launcher, machine gun and anti-tank missile system " Barrier-VK "Ukrainian production. In fact, this is a floating twin infantry fighting vehicle capable of close combat with an equivalent enemy on the water or firing at a target on the shore. And in my opinion
these two boats by themselves did not pose a real threat to the Crimean bridge or Russian total dominance in the sky and on the water in the Azov-Black Sea region.
The Russian side claims that the application for passage under the Crimean bridge was not filed "in the prescribed manner", but this is not a reason to shoot at living people. During the long hours that the confrontation lasted on November 25, it was probably possible to find a way to secure either passage to the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov, or allow them to return to Odessa.
But in recent years, the aggression of the perpetrators has become rabid: diplomats are rude, career intelligence officers arrange sabotage in European cities, pilots and sailors intercept foreign ships and aircraft with the risk of collisions.
Offensive intervention is taking place at all levels and in all environments. Now it's time for the shooting. And behind the Ukrainian boats, the bosses, of course, see the main enemy - the US and the EU - which the Foreign Ministry has already warned about "serious consequences of provoking a conflict with the Russian Federation in the waters of the Azov and Black Seas."
What is the reason for choosing such routes of the Ukrainian Navy? The Ukrainians are building a naval base in Berdyansk, and boats built in Nikolaev are deployed to protect it.
Launching of the new armored boat "Gyurza M" in Kyiv, 2015. Photo: Nazar Furyk / Zuma / TASS
Moscow is seriously afraid that if the base can be equipped in Berdyansk, NATO ships may come on a friendly visit,
capable of operating in the shallow Azov littoral, armed with powerful long-range missiles, protected by modern missile defense and air defense systems. Then, for example, it will be difficult or impossible to transfer corvettes with Caliber missiles from the Caspian Sea to the Black and Mediterranean, and back through Azov and the Volga-Don Canal, which our Navy constantly practices. By the way, many warships of the Black Sea Fleet cannot be used in the Sea of Azov because of the shallow water.
The Caucasus, Crimea, the Black Sea, the Bosphorus, bases in Syria and the grouping in the Mediterranean Sea are now linked into one most important southwestern strategic direction, which should, first of all, ensure reliable defense of Sochi on the distant approaches - the second, and often the main center of control of the country and the armed forces. And then a potential adversary decided to drive a wedge into the foundation of this entire strategy by deploying a base in Berdyansk.
Neighborhood of Berdyansk. Photo: Wikimapia
In Ukraine, in response, martial law was introduced in a number of regions for 30 days, and President Petro Poroshenko referred not only to the Kerch incident, but, above all, to intelligence about the likelihood of an offensive by Russian (pro-Russian) forces on the southern flank of the Donetsk front in order to occupy Mariupol and Berdyansk.
Since the summer of 2015, there have been many discussions at NATO headquarters and in the Pentagon about the possibility of such a campaign in order to break through the so-called “land corridor to Crimea.” It seems that with the launch of the Crimean bridge, this “corridor” became irrelevant, but now it has become unclear whether the naval base in Berdyansk scared Moscow so much, or serious problems arose with the Crimean bridge, which are still kept secret, or both straightaway.
It cannot be ruled out that a winter campaign to finally oust Ukraine from the Azov coast may begin in the near future.
The purpose of the operation may be limited to the coast to Berdyansk. Or to Melitopol, Genichesk and Chongar, if the land "corridor to the Crimea" is really needed. In any case, unless, of course, God forbid, such a decision is made, regular Russian forces will have to be brought into battle en masse, especially if, as in 2014-2015, they begin to portray that they are, they say, Donetsk militias they themselves are advancing, and therefore there will be no active air support.
Entrance to Mariupol. Photo: RIA Novosti
By the way, the front-line Mariupol can be relatively easily bypassed and cut off, but then the city may have to be stormed, like Aleppo, with great destruction. However, there are commanders with Syrian experience in the troops, and fighters-specialists in storming cities using heavy weapons can be discharged.
Of course, the West will protest and impose additional sanctions, but this will rather upset the liberal-economic bloc of the current regime (the so-called “peace party”), whose next failure will only be an additional bonus for their opponents from the so-called “war party”. Western leaders will not impose all one murderous total embargo on the export of Russian gas and oil, especially in winter, as it was never introduced in Soviet times and for the same reasons - no one in the West needs a price shock and an economic downturn before the elections.
The Ukrainians will have to fight back alone or hope that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a mistake, or that Moscow will change its mind and there will be no winter war. Or, in extreme cases, hope that Western mediators, after the troops complete the main tasks (as in 2015 after Debaltsevo), will help sign another truce, like the three Minsk agreements.
