65 years ago, Ray Bradbury's short story "And Thunder Came" was published. It described a journey into the distant past, where one of the characters accidentally crushed a butterfly. This led to unpredictable consequences, radically changing the future. In the early 60s of the last century, a young assistant in the department of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Edward Lorenz, received a number of unusual diagrams. Their shape resembled the wings of a butterfly, and a great fan of science fiction, Lorenz, immediately called the pattern he discovered the butterfly effect. It soon became a universal concept, explaining many mysterious phenomena, when insignificant events lead to grandiose consequences, such as typhoons, large-scale epidemics, or the collapse of colossal glaciers from the dome of Antarctica.

Errors of round values

In fact, the butterfly effect is far from being a simple idea that follows from a very complex mathematical theory of chaos. It all started when Lorenz tried to create a set of computer programs that could predict long-term weather changes. Once he did not round off thousandths of meteorological quantities, such as wind strength, humidity and atmospheric pressure. Unexpectedly, this led to a phenomenal result. It turned out that these tiny data changes completely changed the long-term forecast.

For a whole decade, Lorenz worked on his theory, but it became famous thanks to the determination of another meteorologist. In 1972, a prestigious international conference was held, but Lorentz did not have time to present the title of the report. There was no time at all, and this was boldly done by his colleague, giving the work a completely non-academic title “Forecasting: the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil will cause a tornado in Texas?”. It was from this moment that a heated discussion of the Lorentz butterfly effect began.

In that long-standing work, Lorentz tried to prove that the far-reaching consequences of minor atmospheric anomalies constitute two very interesting problems at once. Firstly, you should not criticize weather forecasts and mock weather forecasters, because it turns out that it is almost impossible to create an accurate long-term weather map. Secondly, in many processes it is simply impossible to "catch a butterfly" and identify the tipping point that leads to the real end result.

Generally speaking, many philosophers are very apprehensive about Lorentz's butterflies, because if small inaccuracies in some natural phenomena are of such great importance, then it can be argued that our world is completely unpredictable in some way...

The birth and death of a tornado

According to the Lorenz diagrams, an incalculable number of natural relationships can not only cause a tornado with a flap of a butterfly's wings, but also extinguish a hurricane in the bud. Thus, if a person intervenes in the surrounding nature, for example, by disturbing the ecological balance, then we are unlikely to ever know for sure what would happen in the alternative scenario “Earth without people”. And all this because all subsequent changes are very difficult to track and restore the sequence of events.

Even during his lifetime, Lorenz sadly noted that most of the climatologists around him perceive his original constructions exactly the opposite. The most important thought in Lorentz's theory is that we just cannot easily track a significant event and its connection with the present. Asserting that the flapping of a butterfly's wings can cause a storm, we must immediately move on to the next question: how can we be sure that this particular atmospheric anomaly caused the birth, and not the death, of a crushing tornado? It turns out that Lorentz's research provides an opportunity to take a fresh look at the problem of cause-and-effect relationships, but does not at all contain simple answers for predicting the future.

Mysteries of the Kitchen of the Weather

As a meteorologist, Lorenz tried to explain many mysteries of the kitchen of the weather with the help of the phenomenon he discovered. In his bold assumption, the cause of the most powerful storms that are born in the Gulf of Mexico may be a small weather anomaly in the South Atlantic.

Already after the death of the scientist in 2008, a number of Latin American weather forecasters tried to connect the butterfly effect with the amazing Pacific El Niño phenomenon. In an incomprehensible way, this periodic atmospheric anomaly somehow affects the birth of devastating tornadoes that bring multibillion-dollar losses to the southern states of the United States.

At the same time, many American conspiracy theorists are simply sure that at the Pentagon's secret training grounds they have long been trying to bring out "meteo butterflies" that can cause storms in various parts of the world. In any case, this could be a real fuse for the hypothetical "climate weapon" that has been talked about a lot lately.

The main parameter here is the hurricane wind as one of the areas of research in atmospheric physics. This science has been trying for many years to predict the trajectories of air vortices, but still cannot predict their strength, and hence the scale of possible destruction.

hurricane equation

For a quarter of a century, meteorologists have been working hard to create reliable computer models of bad weather. The stumbling block here is the so-called hurricane equation, which cannot be solved on the basis of classical ideas about the mechanism of its formation. One can imagine that a powerful hurricane is forming somewhere in the southeastern part of the Caribbean Sea. There, currents of warm and humid air meet with cold winds blowing from the Andes. Intensive condensation of water vapor occurs with the formation of a powerful cloud cover. However, if we try to set all the necessary parameters, we will not be able to determine the course and increase in wind strength. In particular, the calculated wind speed will always be much lower than in reality.

It is well known that the stronger the wind, the more waves on the surface of the water. The waves here act as a natural "roughness" of the water surface, against which the air currents rub. Meanwhile, if we consider the balance between the energy supply and its absorption due to friction, then it turns out that the stronger the wind, the larger this absorption will be. That is, the waves should extinguish the wind, just like in the title of the cult work of the Strugatsky brothers, but in reality this does not happen.

Hypothesis of Russian geophysicists

At the end of the last century, a group of employees of the Department of Nonlinear Geophysical Processes of the Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences from Nizhny Novgorod expressed a very unusual hypothesis. Based on the principles of Lorentz's theory, they suggested that the resistance of the ocean surface paradoxically drops when the wind increases.

Then, in 2003, an article by the American researcher Kerry Emmanuel, describing a similar phenomenon, was published in the journal Nature. In his conclusions, he relied on long-term data on wind speeds inside tropical cyclones using falling GPS probes from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Observing Center. Based on the generalization of the results of these measurements, it turned out that the drag coefficient of the sea surface is much lower than the value obtained in the calculations of ordinary winds.

Russian scientists are studying -butterflies that generate hurricanes" at the unique "Complex of Large-Scale Geophysical Stands" installation, which consists of a pool with a high-speed wind-wave channel. Today, this complex is included in the list of installations of national importance in Russia.

Net for catching "hurricane butterflies"

The experiments of Nizhny Novgorod geophysicists gave amazing results. Using a high-speed video camera that shoots up to half a million frames per second, it was possible to capture the amazing processes of the birth of hurricane butterflies. Thus, an understanding of the mechanism of the occurrence of hurricane winds in the embryo of a storm arose. It became clear that at a certain stage, the air currents of a growing typhoon rush over the waves, like a hydrofoil glider or a colossal ekranoplan. In this case, the mass of air forms above the waves - a foam pillow - from solid lambs, which smooths out the excitement. At the same time, the resistance to air flows over the sea surface drops sharply.

Scientists counted the drops and realized that they had found the most effective mechanism for generating splashes, which greatly changes the pattern of hurricanes. Previously, it was believed that splashes are formed when pop-up bubbles burst and their number is incommensurably smaller. It turned out that if we recalculate the results of the Nizhny Novgorod laboratory experiment for natural conditions, then the formation of hurricane winds becomes clear. Scientists have understood what is an effective mechanism for the supply of energy to the monstrous force of the wind, and came close to predicting the destructive ability of a hurricane.

However, "Lorentz butterflies" were also found in sciences very far from meteorology.

Insects of financial crises

A decade ago, a few enthusiasts from Smartmoney, a virtual club of fans of financial forecasts, started doing market research “according to Lorentz” and immediately caught the “financial crisis butterfly”. It turned out that Sony's growing logistical problems could have a critical impact on a network of shareholders, sellers and investors. Thus, an ominous forecast appeared on the Smartmoney website: “One butterfly, in this case a Japanese butterfly, launches a whole critical process in the global chain of partners.” Unfortunately, no one heeded the unusual opinion of "economic dilettantes". And the crisis of 2008 struck...

Ashton Kutcher and Amy Smart just perfectly played in the sensational film "The Butterfly Effect". According to the story, the main character, having inherited a certain illness from his father, did not remember some moments of his life - those moments in which unusual, and sometimes even terrifying events took place. Then, having matured and entered college, Kutcher's hero discovers an amazing ability in himself - in the process of his diary entries, which he did at the insistence of his doctor, he can return to childhood and change the future by changing his actions.

So, some, sometimes even insignificant actions, had a huge effect on the events of the coming time. This, in fact, is called the butterfly effect. But a film is a film, and the characters of Amy Smart and Ashton Kutcher, having managed to unravel the mystery of changing the future, made it so that it was acceptable to them and all the people around them. You and I, in our lives, cannot look into the future to see how our current actions affect it. However, no one has canceled the butterfly effect, and today we will try to understand in more detail what kind of phenomenon it is, and whether it exists in the world of reality, and not just cinema.

What is the butterfly effect?

The concept of "butterfly effect" is used, as a rule, in the natural sciences, and it denotes a special property of some chaotic systems, according to which, even a small impact on the system can have the most unpredictable and large consequences in some other place and at another point in time.

Such systems, in which all processes occur as if by chance, despite the fact that they are conditioned by certain laws, are especially sensitive to insignificant influences. In a world where everything happens chaotically, it is very difficult to predict what changes can occur at a particular time and in a particular place, and uncertainty increases exponentially as time passes.

The presented phenomenon was called the "butterfly effect" by the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. It is defined as follows: a butterfly that flaps its wings, for example, in Iowa, is capable of initiating an avalanche of other effects that can reach its climax in Indonesia during the rainy season.

By the way, if you think about it, you can find a description of a similar phenomenon in the Brothers Grimm's fairy tale "The Flea and the Flea", in which the burn of the main character causes a worldwide flood, as well as in the story "And Thunder Came" by Ray Bradbury, in which the death of a butterfly in the past dramatically changes the world of the future. And the French mathematician Henri Poincare said that minor changes in the initial conditions give rise to large changes in the final phenomenon, and the prediction becomes possible.

But let's step aside from the scientific field of knowledge, filled with opinions, theories and hypotheses, and think about life - is there a butterfly effect in it?

Butterfly effect in people's lives

Have you ever thought that from time to time an accident, to which we do not attach any special importance, can turn our whole life upside down? Remember the words of Edward Lorenz again, and then do a little analysis of your life. It is likely that you will be able to recall at least one case when the butterfly effect took place. If we philosophize, we can conclude that our everyday life is quite chaotic, like, for example, the life of the world around us and nature, and we ourselves are part of them, and, therefore, we can be called one whole.

Just imagine how you would not have met your real life partner a few years ago if at a certain moment you had taken a different bus, gone on other business, returned home by a different way. What would happen in your life now? And what would happen if you decided not to answer the question that your future second half asked you at the meeting? How would things have been if life had not brought your parents together many years ago? What would you be doing now if you hadn't read this article?

In our life absolutely everything is connected with each other; there is nothing in it that should not be; All events have a cause and all events are the effects of something. Based on all this, “accident”, which we initially do not attach importance to, can cause our whole life to change drastically, and those events that we could not even think about will begin to occur.

First story

For example, here is a little story that we found on the Internet: one girl met a young man for several years, and really wanted to marry him. But no matter how much she talked about it, and no matter what hints she made, the young man was in no hurry to make an offer. But one day the girl's grandmother fell ill, and the very next day the young man offered his beloved a hand and a heart.

But do not think that the guy, fearing that the grandmother would no longer be able to recover, wanted to have time to make sure that she could see her granddaughter under the crown. The situation was as follows: a young couple went to the village to see their granny in order to take care of her and help with the housework. When the guy was chopping wood, he accidentally cut himself on the blade of the ax, and his passion gently and carefully treated the wound and bandaged his hand.

So what's the connection?

And the connection is that in childhood the guy was already in a similar situation, and then his mother treated the wound for him. When the girl showed concern for the guy, he immediately presented a picture from the past in all details, and the understanding came to him that next to him was exactly the girl with whom he wants to live his life.

This can be explained by the fact that the "picture" of a happy family was formed by a young man in his childhood, and his mother's attitude towards him was firmly imprinted in the subconscious. Having met his chosen one, a “puzzle” automatically began to assemble in his mind, and the guy was not even aware of how what happened in the past could manifest itself in the present.

Second story

One more example can be cited, which we also found on the Web: one woman, being always a responsible and accurate employee, for some reason regularly her boss, who, at every opportunity, tried to reproach her for something, humiliate, scold, make remark, etc. But one fine day, the son of this woman made a plasticine figurine in kindergarten, after which the boss stopped her attacks.

One can ask a logical question: why did this happen? Perhaps the woman decided to give the figurine to the boss, and she appreciated the deed and decided to change her behavior? However, things were completely different.

When a woman took her son from kindergarten, he constantly played in the car on the way home with his figure, which is why he left plasticine crumbs. The next morning, when the lady went to work, she sat down on plasticine and soiled her skirt. At work, she was constantly nervous about this and embarrassed. When the boss asked her to come into the office for a conversation in order to arrange another “debriefing”, our heroine, instead of worrying, as usual, paid all her attention to how to make sure that no one saw the stains on the skirt.

Some bosses, to the category of which the boss of this woman belonged, have a need to command and push someone around all the time. And it is very important that it has the proper effect on the object of influence. Constantly “bullying” her employee, the boss got what she needed, because the first one gave her her energy, because. worried and nervous.

Indifference, as you know, neutralizes the ardor of power-hungry people, and that day the woman, preoccupied only with her skirt and appearance, showed absolute indifference to the boss's attacks. As a result, the boss did not get what she usually received, stopped clinging to the woman and found a new employee whose reaction caused the desired effect for the boss. The woman began to receive only pleasure from work and that she would again have to endure bullying.

Finally

Everything we talked about today indicates that the butterfly effect is always present in a person's life, and each time it manifests itself in one form or another. And if you have an insatiable desire to make changes in your life, you don’t need to start everything from scratch, because you can change one thing so that it entails changes in another.

Just remember that your life is in your hands, and what and how to change in it is up to you and no one else!

The butterfly effect is a unique phenomenon that managed not only to become another boring discovery, but also to get into the cinema and the press. He confirms the correctness of popular sayings that an insignificant act can lead to serious consequences, unimaginable at first glance.

Butterfly effect - what is it?

This phenomenon may not occur in every system: only in the one that is called chaotic. It is based on the famous chaos theory, which says that any complex system is unpredictable and its details can mix with each other in a way that is unexpected for itself. The butterfly effect is a phenomenon capable of comprehending a biological system at any level. It is also subject to a person who is influenced by positive and negative factors that determine his health throughout his life. There are several points of view on it:

1. In differential equations, you can slightly change the conditions and this will significantly affect their solution.
2. The butterfly effect determines the behavior of a roulette ball in a casino, because its fall depends on a lot of circumstances.
3. In a world of chaos, it is impossible to predict the behavior of systems, but the likelihood of them getting out of control is steadily increasing.

Why is the butterfly effect so called?

The name was coined by the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He was the first to suggest, giving it a bizarre form of metaphor. Edward figured that the flapping of a single butterfly's wings in Iowa could trigger an avalanche of other actions, such as causing a storm during the Indonesian rainy season. The Butterfly Effect is a concept so named because of its association with the plot of Ray Bradbury's short story "Thunder Came".

Butterfly effect - psychology

The phenomenon ceases to be boring as soon as it enters the sphere of the humanities. The butterfly effect in psychology echoes Lorenzo's belief, but complements it with the ability of the individual to influence collective reality, like a raindrop filling a bowl. A person is arranged in such a way that it is easier for him to deny the possibility of influencing the outcome of the war, the growth of the population of homeless animals, public opinion. Knowing what the butterfly effect is, how to understand and apply its action to your advantage? The use of the phenomenon for the purpose of personal development consists of the following stages:

• awareness of positive and negative in details;
• accepting traits with which there was no desire to put up before;
• a reward for finding a balance between irreconcilable qualities;
• connection of all internal forces to strengthen the struggle with difficulties and circumstances.

Butterfly effect in real life

In the real world, you can find non-fictional cases of the influence of a small event on the course of history. About what the butterfly effect is, what each of its consequences means, such personalities as:

1. Resident of Stockton, California. In 2003, he failed to repay a $250,000 mortgage loan, triggering a global banking crisis.
2. Norman Bolog is a breeder who created unpretentious varieties of vegetables and fruits that saved a huge number of people from starvation during droughts and crop failures in the 20th century.
3. Catherine II - her husband, Peter the Third, was such an uninteresting interlocutor that she spent all her time in the library. Deep knowledge helped her to fairly rule the country for many years.

Butterfly effect - interesting facts

The butterfly effect is a phenomenon that became the main character of the Hollywood movie of the same name. The hero of Ashton Kutcher with enviable regularity uses his memory to travel into the past in order to change the events that led to the chain of tragedies in the future. The painting itself has become a symbol of the butterfly effect. Either because of the rental of higher-grossing films, or because of the illness of the actors, its premiere was postponed for one year.

Butterfly effect and chaos theory

This pattern really appeared thanks to the theory of chaos and became one of its signs. This teaching is based on the mathematical concepts used in the modulation of systems. The media, cinema and scientists have created the wrong image for teaching: for example, thanks to Jurassic Park, people know that society should be seriously wary of the unity of chaos and nature. There is no such second phenomenon as the butterfly effect, the chaos theory that would make the world famous, so people are afraid of the unknown. In its most primitive form, its postulates can be revealed as:

1. It does not deny the very essence of ordering. Systems can be programmable, but no one can give guarantees.
2. It focuses its efforts on the consequences of misfortunes caused by chaos.
3. It does not obey the expected periodicity. Time delays and feedback prevent the system from adjusting to the schedule.
4. It works on the principle of bifurcation. Taking bizarre forms and breaking all the rules, chaos is guaranteed to return to order.

Many people like to delve into their past. This is neither bad nor good, we still cannot change the past. A senseless waste of time, leading to introspection and often self-abasement, which is unhealthy.

Each of us has positive and negative qualities. And among them there are those that we accept and those that we would prefer to get rid of. In other words, there are qualities that we do not even want to admit to ourselves. Life calls to explore and reconcile the opposites in ourselves, and not to try to remove or change them. Understanding and reconciling both sides of his nature, a person becomes a single whole, not in conflict with himself. The task is difficult, it is important not just to recognize the existence of different traits. It is necessary to understand that those traits that you do not approve of are necessary for continued growth.

Opposites are not necessarily good and evil. Opposite features in ourselves, or in another person with whom we are trying to establish a connection, are a mirror image of each other, mutual complement and support. Here you need to achieve unity of these opposites, make them work together, overcome conflicts and create a whole - more than the sum of parts.

The reward for reconciling irreconcilable elements within is an increase in one's own strength and will. No more wasting time and energy on the struggle - always useless! - with those qualities in oneself or others that irritate. Instead, to combine them in oneself and use them to strengthen one's own power over circumstances, situations and events is aerobatics.

Clearly - an example with a butterfly. If you write qualities that, in your opinion, are good on one wing, and bad on the other, you can tear off a bad wing. Butterfly will live, she will even be able to eat, drink, move around, but will she be a whole person? But butterflies can fly...

The most difficult thing is to forgive yourself... To allow yourself to be a man, not a saint!

Accept - Understand - Forgive - Let go. A simple bunch, but it can be very difficult to apply. Accept yourself and your past as fact. To understand that at that moment they behaved this way only because they felt this way, thought this way, and that's all. Forgive yourself and all-all-all the mistakes made. To let go means to change the attitude towards the past (the past itself cannot be changed).

"The past is forgotten, the future is closed, the present is bestowed" - a phrase from a children's cartoon, and in fact, what do we do? We care about what was and what will be, but what are we doing now to improve our lives? Digging for shortcomings? Here are just the qualities they are like a knife: they can be used by holding on to the blade or holding the handle, in which case it is safe and useful.

Only the human mind imposes restrictions, then it was painful and not pleasant. But who came up with the idea that this is how it will always be? The main task is to move, to build our bright, warm, wonderful future right now, and this requires faith.

The best way to develop anything, including faith, is action. It is important to understand that you already have faith. It is impossible to strengthen it, you can only eliminate the restrictions that your mind imposes on it.

If you act on the basis of faith, that is, take risks in spite of your fear and at the same time know that everything will work out, any restrictions will disappear.

Butterfly Effect

Butterfly Effect- a term in the natural sciences, denoting the property of some chaotic systems. A small impact on the system can have large and unpredictable consequences somewhere else at another time.

History of the term

Deterministic-chaotic systems are sensitive to small influences. In a chaotic world, it is difficult to predict what variations will occur at a given time and place, errors and uncertainty build up exponentially over time. Lorenz Edward Norton called this phenomenon the "butterfly effect": a butterfly flapping its wings in Iowa can cause an avalanche of effects that can culminate in the rainy season in Indonesia ("the butterfly effect" also evokes an allusion to R. Bradbury's 1952 short story "And thunder struck", where the death of a butterfly in the distant past changes the world of a very distant future. You can also see an allusion to the fairy tale of the Brothers Grimm "Lock and Flea", where the burn of the main character eventually leads to a global flood).

“Small differences in the initial conditions give rise to huge differences in the final phenomenon ... Prediction becomes impossible” (A. Poincaré, after: Horgan, 2001).

see also

• snowball effect
• The End of Eternity (a novel by American science fiction writer Isaac Asimov, which is about an organization using the butterfly effect to change reality)

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Books

• Butterfly effect, Natalia Borisova. How many entities can there be in a person? Hidden thoughts, unspoken words, hidden emotions... In every person there is a whole world, which can be shaken by a light touch of wings... electronic book
• Butterfly Effect. Israel-Iran: From Peace to War, From Friendship to Hatred, Ephraim Bauch. The essays that make up this book were originally written for a newspaper. In some ways they are momentary, in some ways they are publicistic… Several years have passed. A new leader has already been chosen in Iran. He is considered…