Legal statistics is understood as a science based on the principles of the general theory of mathematical statistics and studying the quantitative side of mass legal phenomena and processes in order to reveal their qualitative content, as well as trends and patterns of development in specific conditions of place and time.

The mathematical basis of any branch of statistics, including the legal one, is the law of large numbers, which states that statistical patterns are formed and clearly manifested only in a mass process and with a sufficiently large number of population units.

With a large number of observations, the experimental results of the research become close to the theoretical ones.

Thus, studying various legal phenomena in large quantities, such as: criminal offenses, road accidents, filing all kinds of lawsuits, etc., legal statistics makes it possible to predict the growth of crimes in the future, as well as the patterns of their development, as a result of which the role of preventive measures increases in the prevention of various kinds of offences.

• 1. The method of mass statistical observation consists in studying a large number of offenses, which makes it possible to identify objective patterns in the field of crimes, in the law enforcement activities of courts, prosecutors, police and other law enforcement agencies. To obtain objective results, statistical observation must cover either the entire (general) set of phenomena studied, or such part of it that would be sufficiently representative (representative) and would allow us to say that the results identified on the basis of incomplete data have such and such an error.
• 2. Summary and grouping of observational data is the next method (stage) of legal statistics. Its essence lies in the reduction and grouping of data obtained through statistical observation, according to one or another feature, so that each group represents a certain qualitative homogeneity. For example, the totality of the studied crimes is grouped according to the objects of encroachment (against the individual, the economy, the state, etc.), according to the content of motivation (mercenary, violent, etc.) or according to the subjects of crimes (sex, age, social status, previous conviction). Summary and grouping of data allows you to see the structure of the studied phenomena, their similarities and differences. This method allows you to see the unity of quantitative and qualitative in a given set.
• 3. Statistical quantitative analysis reveals patterns and interdependencies of mass legal, criminological and sociological phenomena. The results of a statistical study at this stage are expressed as percentages, coefficients, indices and other general indicators that do not include private, individual or random deviations. They reveal the main trends, typical features, correlations, characteristics.

A comprehensive qualitative analysis of legal quantitative phenomena is applied at all stages of statistical research. It involves a deep understanding of the essence of the analyzed processes on the basis of the theoretical provisions of civil, criminal law, criminology, etc., followed by deepening the theory of these sciences and improving legal practice.

Using the above methods, legal statistics provides:

• - the study of the criminological characteristics of crime, and together with sociology - criminal law - and the study of non-criminalized criminal activity;
• - study of the causes and conditions of crimes;
• - study of the criminological characteristics of the personality of offenders;
• - predicting crime and individual criminal behavior;
• - planning and organizing the fight against criminal acts;
• - verification of the effectiveness of the fight against criminal manifestations.

Statistical observation includes:

• - definition of goals and objectives of statistical observation;
• - choice of the object of study;
• - establishment of units of observation, population, measurement;
• - drawing up a monitoring program.

The goals of statistical observation can be very different. They arise from the real socio-legal needs of law enforcement and other legal institutions or the state as a whole. For example, tracking the level of recorded crime, detection rate, criminal record and the total number of prisoners constitutes a database on the basis of which the fight against crime is organized and the safety of society is assessed. Other, more detailed or private information about crime or criminal record is collected in connection with emerging tasks.

The choice of the object of observation depends on the goals set and includes a set of social and legal relations that should be studied in order to achieve the goals set. For example, if the goal of monitoring is to develop a more effective fight against corruption among civil servants, then the object of monitoring can be a set of social and legal relations in the public service: the level of corrupt acts committed, the actual proportion of their detection by law enforcement agencies, the circumstances of latency of corruption, causes and conditions contributing to the corruption of civil servants, the proportion of corrupt officials who bear real criminal responsibility for their actions, the level of criminalization of real corrupt acts, etc.

The unit of observation is usually referred to as the source from which the primary statistical information should be obtained. For example, police departments, district or city prosecutor's offices, district courts, etc.

The unit of the population is considered to be the primary composite indivisible element of the studied population, the features of which must be recorded in the process of observation. For example, such elements include a crime, a criminal, a victim, a plaintiff, a defendant, etc.

The unit of measurement shows the values ​​in which the social and legal phenomena studied by legal statistics are taken into account. For example, in the statistical reporting of criminal justice bodies, three indicators are used as units for measuring crime: a criminal case (investigative or judicial proceedings), a crime (by type) and a subject of a crime (by person) - suspected, accused, defendant, convicted, prisoner.

The program of statistical observation is a list of clearly formulated questions to which reliable answers must be obtained in the course of the observation. The content of the program is determined by the goals and specifics of the object of observation.

In form, a statistical summary can be decentralized, which happens when it is finally made on the ground, for example, in the lower internal affairs bodies, the prosecutor's office, the tax police or in court; mixed (the report is carried out in the district, city, then in the subject of the Federation, and then in the center); centralized (only in the center).

The constituent elements of summary and grouping are:

• a) development of a system of indicators characterizing crime or other socio-legal phenomenon in general and its separate groups;
• b) statistical grouping of the received data;
• c) calculation of group and general results;
• d) presentation of results in statistical tables and graphs.

The development of a system of indicators characterizing a particular phenomenon is considered the first, and the grouping of data itself is the second element of the considered stage of summarizing and grouping statistical indicators. These elements are closely related, since any summary of quantitative materials is always based on a grouping of indicators collected during the observation process. The grouping of statistical data, determined by the tasks and objectives of the study, involves the division of indicators on crimes, administrative offenses, criminal and civil proceedings into qualitatively homogeneous groups according to essential features.

Grouping features can reflect the qualitative or quantitative side of the phenomenon under study. When distributing data according to quantitative characteristics (the age of offenders, the number of persons in an organized criminal group, the number of convictions, terms of imprisonment, etc.), it is necessary to single out the total number of groups and determine the difference between the maximum and minimum values ​​of the characteristic (interval) in each group. Moreover, the intervals cannot be chosen arbitrarily, based on external signs, equality, etc. They should reflect the essential aspects of phenomena and processes, reveal the transition of quantity into quality.

Statistical groupings reflecting qualitative (attributive) features (the degree of social danger and severity of crimes, the type of acts, the content of the motivation for criminal behavior, the social status of offenders, the conditions for the moral formation of a personality in the family, the nature of a civil claim, the type of civil tort, etc. ) are widespread in socio-legal studies.

• · Direct statistical observation - observation, in which the registrars themselves, by direct measurement, weighing, counting, establish the fact to be recorded.
• § Documentary observation -- is based on the use of various types of accounting documents.

It includes a reporting method of observation, in which enterprises submit statistical reports on their activities in a strictly mandatory manner.

• § Poll - is to obtain the necessary information directly from the respondent.
• § There are the following types of survey:
• § Expeditionary - registrars receive the necessary information from the interviewees and record it themselves in the forms.
• § Method of self-registration - the forms are filled in by the respondents themselves, the registrars only distribute the forms and explain the rules for filling them out.
• § Correspondent - information to the relevant authorities is reported by the staff of voluntary correspondents.
• § Questionnaire - the collection of information is carried out in the form of questionnaires, which are special questionnaires, it is convenient in cases where high accuracy of the results is not required.
• § Private - is to provide information to the relevant authorities on a private basis.

Statistical observation data must be accurate, so the following requirements apply:

The accuracy of observation is the degree to which the value of a feature or indicator obtained through statistical observation corresponds to its actual value. The smaller the discrepancy between the indicators obtained as a result of statistical observation and their actual value, the higher the degree of accuracy of statistical observation.

The discrepancy between the established statistical observation and the actual values ​​of the studied tasks are called observation errors, which are divided into several types:

• · Registration errors - this is the discrepancy between the statistical value fixed during the observation of its actual value as a result of incorrect, erroneous registration of the answer to the question of the statistical form.
• Random registration errors are errors that occur due to various random reasons (the respondent made a reservation, a typo was made when recording the result, etc.)
• · Systematic registration errors are inaccuracies that occur due to certain factors that are constantly acting throughout the entire statistical observation in one direction. (these errors increase or decrease the values ​​of the indicator, which significantly distorts the results of the observation). Intentional registration errors are errors resulting from the fact that the interviewee deliberately, knowingly reports incorrect data to the registrar. Unintentional registration errors - these are errors that are inadvertent in nature, are made unintentionally (omissions in records, insufficient qualifications of employees)
• · Random representativeness errors are errors that occur when a population of randomly selected observation units does not fully and accurately reproduce the population as a whole.
• Representativeness biases are errors resulting from violations of the principles of unbiased, unintentional selection of population units that should be observed

To ensure the necessary reliability of observations, it is necessary to provide for a thorough check of their quality, which involves statistical, logical and arithmetic control.

• 1. Statistical control consists in checking the correctness of the structure and execution of the document, as well as in analyzing the completeness of the material.
• 2. Logical control consists in comparing answers to interrelated questions of a statistical form or other document in order to identify logically incompatible answers
• 3. Arithmetic control consists in checking the correctness of the arithmetic totals of the indicators contained in the statements.

The most important works of Semenov:

• "Bulletin of the Geographical Society"
• «Geographical and statistical dictionary of the Russian Empire»
• Memoirs

Summary and grouping of statistics

Obtained as a result of statistical information and observation, the data must be brought into a certain order; for this, a statistical summary is used - this is a scientifically organized process of processing observation materials, where:

• Systematization of data
• Grouping
• · Spreadsheets
• Calculation of averages
• ・Counting totals

The summary allows you to analyze and predict certain processes. She happens:

• 1. Simple, when only the total count is made
• 2. Mechanized, using information technology

The summary is carried out according to a certain:

The program when the steps are set:

a) Selection of a grouping characteristic

b) Determining the order in which groups are formed

c) Development of a system of statistical indicators and table layouts to provide summary results

When summarizing, materials are combined into groups using the grouping method.

Statistical grouping is the process of forming homogeneous groups based on the division into parts of certain units.

The grouping method allows the development of primary statistical material and is currently used in the system of national accounts. Grouping allows you to solve the following tasks:

• 1. Identification of socio-economic types of phenomena
• 2. Studying the structure of the phenomenon
• 3. Identification of relationships and dependencies between individual features

To solve these problems, the following types of groupings are used:

• Typological
• Structural
• Combination

Typological grouping is the division of a heterogeneous population into separate qualitatively homogeneous groups, socio-economic classes and the identification of economic types of phenomena on this basis. When constructing a typological grouping, both quantitative and qualitative features can act as grouping features.

Grouping on a qualitative basis assumes that the number of selected groups strictly corresponds to the actual number of gradations of this attribute. Consider the conditions of this table 1.

Table 1 Grouping of enterprises by form of ownership

When constructing a typological grouping on a quantitative basis, it is necessary to correctly set the grouping interval, determine the required number of groups. The boundaries of the intervals are set in such a way that within each selected group the units of the population are homogeneous in qualitative and quantitative terms, while the groups themselves differ significantly from each other.

The number of groups in a typological grouping depends on the number of actually existing socio-economic types.

Structural grouping is the division of a qualitatively homogeneous set of units according to certain, essential features into groups that characterize its composition and structure. Quantitative and qualitative features are also considered.

When grouping according to a qualitative (attributive) attribute, groups differ from each other in the nature of the attribute. The number of groups into which the studied population is divided, as a rule, is determined by the number of gradations of the attribute. This is clearly shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Distribution of the unemployed by sex and education (% of total)

Structural grouping on a quantitative basis also involves determining the number of groups and the width of the interval (for more details, see Table 3)

Table 3 Grouping the elements of the stock market by the value of the quotation of bank debts offered for sale in the bill center

This grouping shows that 60.6% of stock market issuers have a total debt of 24.6%, and 24.2% of issuers - 52.9%, i.e. more than twice as many.

The practical application of structural groupings allows at the local level to reveal the structure of the population, to analyze the phenomena and processes under study, their change over time, and the patterns of change in the composition of the population over time.

An analytical grouping is a grouping that reveals the interrelationships and interdependencies between the studied socio-economic phenomena and the features that characterize them. In statistics, all signs are divided into factorial and effective. Factor signs are signs that influence the change in effective signs. Effective features are features that change under the influence of factor features. The relationship is manifested in the fact that with the increase in the role of the factor trait and under its influence, the effective trait changes more intensively.

A grouping is considered combinational when the population is divided into groups according to two or more grouping characteristics taken in combination with each other. First, groups are formed according to one attribute, then they are divided into subgroups according to another attribute, and so on. Combination groupings allow you to study the units of the population simultaneously on several grounds. These groupings are used, as a rule, in the study of complex socio-economic phenomena and processes. An example of combinational grouping is presented in Table 4.

Group number	Group of issuers by bank debt quotation, million rubles	Subgroups of issuers by weighted average rate	Number of elements
		100-120 120-140
		100-120 120-140
		100-120 120-140
Subgroup total	100-120 120-140

In statistics, more attention is paid to grouping by quantitative characteristics, where the grouping interval is determined. An interval is a quantitative value that separates one group from another. It is determined by dividing the difference Xmax and Xmin by n, where n is the number of groups, X is the largest and smallest value of the feature.

For example, in 2010 the salary of workers ranged from 10 to 25 thousand. Divide into 5 groups.

I 1000 to 13000

II 13000 to 16000

III 16000 to 19000

IV 1900 to 22000

V 22000 to 25000

Table, types, rules.

The table is one of the visualization methods in statistics, i.e. it is the result of a summary, grouping for further analysis of indicators. The construction table should be convenient, compact and small.

The basis (backbone) of a statistical table is a series of intersecting horizontal and vertical lines that form horizontal lines and graphs vertically. An atistic table contains three types of headings: general (reflects the contents of the entire table), upper (characterize the content of the column, subject headings) , lateral (headings of the predicate).

The subject in the statistical table is an object that is characterized by numbers. The predicate of the statistical table forms a system of indicators that characterize the object of study, i.e. subject of the table.

Table building rules

• 1. The table should be compact.
• 2. The title and title of the column, lines should be clear, concise and capitalized.
• 3. Information located in the columns must be completed with a total (“total” or “total”).
• 4. In large tables, it is necessary to leave a gap between the five columns in order to make it easier to count.
• 5. Columns and lines must be numbered. Usually the columns of the subject are indicated by capital letters of the alphabet, and the predicate by numbers in ascending order.
• 6. It is necessary to arrange information sequentially.
• 7. For convenient work with digital material, the numbers in the columns should be written one under the other, observing the units.
• 8. If the data will have additional information, then a note must be given to the table.
• 9. The table must always be closed.

There are the following types of tables:

1. Simple tables, in the subject of which there is no grouping, but a listing of territorial units, units of time, or some other list is given. Such tables are the most widely used. (example table 1)

Table 1 Provision of the population of the Russian Federation with medical care

2. Group tables in which the object under study is divided in the subject into groups according to one or another attribute. (example table2)

statistics information observation data

Table 2 Ratio of urban and rural population in Russia for 1996-1999,%

3. Combination tables, in the subject of which a grouping of units of the population is given according to two or more features taken in combination. Such tables contain groups formed according to one attribute, and subgroups formed according to another attribute.

Legal statistics

Subject, method and tasks of legal statistics

Statistics, like other sciences, has its own subject and method of knowledge. At the present stage, the term statistics has three different meanings:

1. statistics is understood as a special branch of practical activity of people, aimed at collecting, processing and analyzing data characterizing the socio-economic situation of the state, its regions, areas of law enforcement, etc.

2. statistics this is a science that develops theoretical provisions and methods used by statistical practice (statistical science relies on the materials of practice and, generalizing the experience of practice, develops new provisions).

3. statistics , as it is often defined, these are statistical data presented in reports on various sectors of the economy, the results of sociological and criminological research published in collections, the media, which are the result of statistical work.

Subject The study of legal statistics is a quantitative characteristic of mass phenomena and processes of a legal nature inextricably linked with their qualitative side.

In each particular case object statistical research is a certain statistical totality.

The statistical totality of the studied legal phenomena can be:

The population of the country, city, village, district, persons who committed offenses, crimes, facts of appeals to the courts, the number of decisions made by judicial and other law enforcement agencies, and the like.

In turn, the studied population may differ in terms of gender, nationality, place of residence, the severity of the crime committed, the degree of public danger, the level of competence of the decision-making body, etc.

So, for example, when taking into account crime and criminal record in Russia, the statistical aggregate includes all the facts of committing acts prohibited by criminal law, as well as persons who have committed crimes and sentenced to serving a criminal sentence by a court verdict, and a separate crime or criminal.

As an example of a statistical aggregate, we will give information on the distribution of various groups of crimes in Russia as a whole and in federal districts (table 3.1).

Table 3.1

The level of crime in the federal districts of Russia in 2002

To determine the quantitative characteristics of the statistical population, special methods of statistical research are used.

The components of the statistical research method are (Fig. 3.1.)

Rice. 3.1. Components of the statistical research method

At the stage of mass statistical observation, based on the developed programs and tools (instructions, forms, tables, etc.), a scientifically organized collection of information about the studied processes or phenomena of social life is carried out.

Grouping and summary is performed on the basis of data obtained as a result of statistical observation. The collected material is systematized and, as a rule, reduced to statistical tables.

The definition and analysis of generalizing indicators makes it possible to establish causal relationships of the studied phenomena and processes, to give an assessment, to formulate conclusions and suggestions.

Statistics on the basis of a system of statistical indicators gives a quantitative measure of the structure, volume, dynamics and relationship of the phenomena and processes under study.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF STATISTICAL RECORDING IN LAW ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES

FEATURES OF STATISTICAL OBSERVATION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK

CURRENT PROBLEMS OF STATISTICAL

RECORDING IN LAW ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES:

MIGRATION OF THE POPULATION, PROBLEMS OF ACCOUNTING

AND REGULATION

Today, a large number of social problems fall into the sphere of law enforcement. This is due to the fact that in the transition to a democratic society, the most effective way to resolve social conflicts lies in the field of law. The globalization of the modern world intensifies many social contradictions, and their actions extend even to those countries that have not previously encountered them.

And in this regard, it should be noted that today for Russia the problem of regulating the migration of the population, the significance of which fifteen to twenty years ago was extremely insignificant, is quite relevant.

Migration processes can be called an indicator of the development of the situation in society, since it is here that the reaction to changes in the economic, political and social life of the state is clearly visible.

Starting from February 2002, activities in the field of regulation of migration processes were transferred to the sphere of authority of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 232 “On Improving State Administration in the Field of Migration Policy” 1 .

The problems of migration are one of the most urgent today all over the world. Of particular concern is the situation in the field of illegal migration, which, according to experts, acts as one of the global phenomena of modern international life.

Almost all regions of the world and many states are involved in this process as either countries of origin, or countries of destination, or countries with mixed flows. The role of individual participants may change. Today, in addition to the traditional host countries (USA, Canada, Israel, Australia), many states of Western Europe fully enjoy this status, in recent decades they have been joined by the countries of Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal), as well as dynamically developing regions of Asia. All these states are to some extent under pressure from illegal migrants 2 .

Modern Russia can be viewed from three positions:

First, it is the country of origin (for example, according to some estimates, about 1.5–2 million people traveled abroad only to earn money annually, of which only 45,800 had a work permit in 20001);

Secondly, the territory of the Russian Federation is used for the transit of illegal migrants (due to the fact that huge sections of its border are actually open, Russia is still widely used by illegal migrants as a transit territory. During 1997-1999, employees of the Russian border service detained 1965 people (out of 1,538 Afghans) on the border with Kazakhstan and 2,618 on the border with Ukraine.During 1998-2000, 8,928 people were detained while trying to enter Russia and other countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) guarded by Russian border guards; 6,750 people were detained trying to leave Russia with invalid documents About 150,000 people with expired visas were fined in 2000, more than a thousand people were detained trying to leave Russia with fake documents. from Turkey, 151 from Sri Lanka, 141 from India and 49 each from Pakistan and China. apprehended approximately 400 organized groups of traffickers; in 1998, 16,200 travel agencies were fined (6,300 in 1999 and 7,100 in 2000). In 1998-2000 a total of 70,300 illegal migrants were deported from Russia 2);

Thirdly, Russia is a destination country for migrants. In addition to officially registered flows, about 1.5 million migrants - half of them Chinese and a significant number of Afghans - lived illegally in Russia. This category included Chinese and Vietnamese migrant workers and petty traders with expired visas; up to 60 thousand foreign students from developing countries (mainly from Afghanistan, Iraq, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea and Ethiopia) who arrived during the Soviet era and did not return home after graduation; another 9,000 students, mostly from African countries, who arrived after 1991 and stayed longer than expected; 7 thousand labor migrants with expired work permits; 4-5 thousand Vietnamese and North Korean contract workers who arrived during the Soviet era and did not leave after the end of the contract, asylum seekers, transit migrants and other categories of migrants. It is estimated that more than 3 million labor migrants from the EECA countries came to work in Russia every year, of which only 100,000 had legal work permits.

In addition, for the effectiveness of the study of any social process, it is necessary to determine not only the quantitative component, but also qualitative characteristics that allow us to consider the object of study from a systemic standpoint. And first of all, for the analysis it is important to identify the factor component that determines the development of the object under study.

As Professor N.M. Rimashevskaya, the direct factors of international migration of the population, affecting its intensity, are reduced to four groups:

Differences in the modes of demographic reproduction, causing the aging of the population in some countries and the formation of a relatively young structure in others;

Significant and ever-increasing polarization of living standards, the growth of deprivations and exclusions in individual countries;

Overpopulation of predominantly backward regions of the world;

Differences in the degree of employment of the able-bodied population and an increase in the level of unemployment, which primarily causes labor migration 2 .

Accounting for these factors makes it possible to more effectively predict the development of migration processes in the Russian Federation. In addition, this makes it possible to identify the most attractive regions for illegal migration, which are mostly border regions (Far Eastern region, Krasnodar Territory) and industrialized centers (Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg and Leningrad region).

Estimating the volume of illegal migration is extremely difficult. The results of numerous studies conducted in recent years within the framework of the Migration Information Program under the auspices of the International Organization for Migration are based mainly on methods for studying indirect characteristics and expert assessments.

The main sources of information when conducting a study using the method of expert assessments are the data collected by the official statistics of the state on measures aimed at curbing illegal migration.

The sources of all the necessary information are precisely those state structures that are evaluated according to the indicators of the effectiveness of the control of migration processes. In this regard, the following should be noted: the structures that maintain statistical records in these areas are rather closed, and statistics are of a departmental nature, which serves as an obstacle to the study of migration processes.

The departmental procedure for registering information in the field of migration processes and maintaining statistics cannot provide an adequate understanding of both the general social situation in Russia and the crime situation associated with migration. You can talk about that. that departmental accounting, the departmental nature of migration statistics lead to various negative phenomena (the inability to prioritize the implementation of migration policy and criminal policy, various forms of human rights violations, etc.). Experts emphasize the need to create a research base for the formation of the concept of migration policy, social and criminological monitoring, and legislative acts.

The monopoly of departmental science in the field of obtaining knowledge about such a social object as migration, in the development of bills and government programs is fraught with serious losses for society, since the nature of the departmental approach is based on a certain focus on the implementation of corporate interests, serving the political interests of individual social groups, and not on the formulation and solution of real social problems, not on obtaining fundamental, objective knowledge.

In the absence of an element of independent science, it is impossible to form socially significant goals, determine the mechanisms and limits of activity for individual state structures, and develop an effective migration policy.

To create a scientifically based concept of migration policy, it is necessary to present it as a complex activity consisting of three levels: foundations, subjects and objects (addressees of the activity).

When developing a migration policy in general for the Russian Federation, as well as in a particular region, it is necessary to analyze the situation and, on this basis, link all these levels. That knm oorazom. It is necessary not only to know the social and criminal situation in the country, region, to identify possible effective subjects of activity, but also to identify the addressees - potential consumers of the results of the activity. In addition, it is necessary to understand the possibilities, directions, strategy of the activities of various actors, as well as the possibilities of interaction between them.

To predict the development of the migration situation in Russia, the research process should include as subjects both the bodies that directly regulate this area and those structures that at this stage are in the most convenient position for research.

So. famous American scientist D.T. Campbell. points out that “in the case of action research, there are a number of other relevant groups of non-professional observers, persons in a position convenient for observation, which is not typical for other social roles. This includes the senior staff of the program and those groups of citizens who are in constant contact with persons experiencing the effects of the program "". In our case, along with specialists from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. FSB (in terms of border control), the Ministry of Internal Affairs. must be considered as possible experts, representatives of ethnic diasporas, public associations of a national, religious nature.In the current situation, it is precisely such "non-professional observers" who are in the most convenient position for observation.

The program for studying the state of illegal migration and the trends in its further development should include two levels, only if they are correlated, the results can be valid.

Thus, from the point of view of studying official statistics, it is necessary to include representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the monitoring. FSB and MVD.

In the process of studying the social situation, in addition to specialists from state bodies of the law enforcement system, experts in the field of social protection, health care, employment, education, as well as representatives of public associations of a foreign nature should be included.

Thus, the research algorithm should include two approaches. The first should be to conduct a survey of experts from law enforcement agencies and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, federal and municipal authorities, who should be provided with statistical data for at least three years for evaluation in the following areas:

Information about refusals to issue entry visas and the number of foreigners not allowed into the country (mainly due to improper execution of entry documents, their absence or an attempt to enter with invalid, forged or someone else's documents);

Number of people arrested or detained at the border while trying to cross it illegally (mostly victims of migrant smuggling);

Information about deportations, i.e. on the number of persons forcibly expelled from the country;

The number of persons detained and prosecuted for violation of the passport and visa regime.

The result is a summarized opinion of a group of experts on the nature of officially registered illegal migration and, based on the available data, on the effectiveness of the structures involved in the regulation of this area, on a possible unrecorded component of illegal migration in Russia.

The second direction includes conducting surveys and questioning representatives of public organizations of an ethno-national character, as well as representatives of the local population, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which are most attractive to illegal migrants, entrepreneurs working in the construction, trade areas, in the service and entertainment sector.

The main result of this direction should be a list of problems associated with illegal migration and having a negative connotation, increasing anxiety in society, disrupting the effective work of social institutions.

TESTS for Chapter 3

1. The purpose of criminological research is:

a) obtaining various data on the social situation in society;

b) obtaining data on the state of society and the state from the perspective of studying crime;

c) obtaining any data about the society.

2. The criminological research program is:

a) a set of methods necessary to achieve the goal of the study;

b) methods and tools for criminological research:

c) the sequence of actions, methodology and certain stages and stages of criminological research. 3. The object of criminological research is:

a) crime;

b) social groups of the population;

c) the social situation in the region.

4. Regulation of migration processes is one of the areas of activity:

a) the state;

b) the international community;

c) Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation.

5. For a better statistical record of migration flows, it is first necessary to:

includes regulation of migration processes;

b) development of a unified state migration policy;

c) increasing the activity of militia services.

6. In the courts, the primary statistical records are:

a) statistical cards;

b) accounting journals;

c) statistical forms.

7. In notaries' offices, primary statistical records are:

a) statistical forms;

b) registers (lists);

c) registers.

8. Statistical reporting in the Department of Internal Affairs is:

a) statistical forms;

b) a system of statistical cards, journals and registers;

c) statistical forms.

9. Civil registry offices (civil registry offices) carry out statistical accounting using:

a) registration acts;

b) statistical cards;

c) registers.

10. To take into account the activities of the bar to promote the protection of the rights and legitimate interests of citizens in the administration of justice, the following are used:

a) registration cards;

b) accounting journals;

c) registers.

AND TECHNIQUE

In order for the information obtained about each unit of observation to be used to characterize the population under study as a whole, they must be scientifically processed, systematized, calculated and summarized.

A statistical summary is a scientifically organized systematization and calculation of group and general summary statistical data.

The purpose of the summary is to bring together the materials of statistical observation and obtain generalizing statistical indicators that characterize the essence of socio-economic phenomena or processes that reflect certain statistical patterns.

A summary of statistical data is carried out according to a pre-compiled program, the content of which is determined by the objectives of the study. The program should contain a list of objects and indicators for studying the phenomenon under study, the choice of grouping features. The program should provide for a system of table layouts in which objects, groups and subgroups are listed in a certain order and the final and intermediate indicators necessary for their characterization.

According to the execution technique, the summary can be performed both manually and mechanized.

According to the organization of work, centralized and decentralized reports are distinguished (Fig. 4.1.1).

With a centralized summary, observation materials are concentrated in one central body (for example, in the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (formerly Goskomstat), and in the case of departmental statistics, the SIC of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia).

Rice. 11. Statistical summary

Summary in a broad sense

Summary in the narrow sense

With a decentralized summary, the generalization of the collected information is carried out on the ground - in district, city, regional, regional statistical bodies according to a single plan. The summary results are already transferred to the higher statistics body for their further generalization.

In addition, there is a summary in a narrow sense, which is a count (summation) of data on the number of units of the population and the value of their features. Such a summary is otherwise known as a simple summary.

A complex summary, or a summary in the broadest sense, is a method of scientific processing of primary statistical information, including grouping the phenomena under study, obtaining a system of indicators to characterize typical groups and subgroups, calculating group and overall results, tabular and graphic design of statistical indicators.

FROM ESSENTIALITY AND TYPES OF GROUPINGS

Summarization and grouping are interrelated processes of the statistical study of mass observations. Without a summary, it is impossible to make a grouping; a summary without a grouping does not allow one to single out the characteristic features of individual types of phenomena, to establish the patterns of the studied phenomena and the relationships between them.

Statistical grouping(Fig. 12) is a process of dividing a complex mass phenomenon into homogeneous groups according to some essential features in order to identify types of phenomena, study the structure and analyze their state, development and relationships. At the same time, it is also a method of combining population units into homogeneous groups, according to which statistical indicators are determined.

The attribute underlying the grouping is called the grouping attribute, or the basis of the grouping.

Rice. 12. Statistical groupings

Grouped sign - it is a distinctive feature inherent in the unit of the statistical population, on the basis of which separate groups are built.

All signs are divided into attributive (qualitative) and quantitative.

Attributive, or qualitative, signs can only be expressed by discrete indicators in the form of a text entry. Examples of qualitative characteristics can be: gender, nationality, country, type of activity, education, type of criminal activity, branch of law, etc. The number of possible groups is determined by the number of features under study.

When grouping according to a quantitative attribute, unlike a qualitative one, each group has a digital expression and can take any fractional and integer values, that is, it is a continuously changing value. Such grouping characteristics include, for example, age, work experience, production or consumption of products, productivity, sown areas, etc. In table. 4.2.1 presents qualitative grouping features - elements of crimes against life and health in the federal districts of the Russian Federation.

1. The subject of statistics as a social science.
2. Subject, methodological bases and methods of legal statistics.
3. Legal statistics and its main branches.
4. The value of accounting and statistics in the life of society.
5. The concept of statistical series, their types.
6. Transformation of dynamic series (enlargement of intervals,
smoothing, closing the dynamic range).
7. The concept of statistical observation.
8. Types of statistical observation.
9. General concept of the theory of probability. The law of large numbers.
10. The concept of statistical grouping.
11. Selective observation and its main categories.
12. Statistical summary and statistical tables. Types of statistical
tables.
13. Methods for selecting units in the sample.
14. The general concept of the error of representativeness (from fr. .
15. Graphical representation of statistical data.
16. Forms of statistical accounting in the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the court and the prosecutor's office.
17. Forms of statistical reporting in the bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the court and the prosecutor's office. eighteen.
18. The concept and tasks of statistical analysis.
19. Statistical analysis of the activities of law enforcement agencies
(main directions).
20. Statistical analysis of crime (general directions).
21. Average values. General characteristics and breeding rules.
22. Arithmetic mean (simple and weighted).
23. Mode and median.
24. Relative intensity values. Crime rate. The coefficient of criminal defeat.
25. Relative values ​​of the population structure.
26. Relative values ​​of dynamics. Basic and valuable ways to
calculation.
27. Relative values ​​of the implementation of the plan. Clearance rate
crimes.
28. Tasks and types of generalization of judicial practice.
29. Techniques and methods of statistical analysis.
30. Interpolation, extrapolation and forecasting.
31. Indicators of time series.
32. General position on regularities and its types.
33. Statistical regularity and its features.
34. Stages of statistical observation.
35. The program of statistical observation.
36. Functional and correlation links.
37. Main groupings. Rules for the formation of groups and intervals of groups.
38. Types of statistical groupings. secondary groups.
39. Rows of distribution.
40. Medium progressive.
41. Indicators of variation. Methods for calculating the indicators of variation.
42. Conditions for the correct construction of time series.
43. The concept and types of indices.
44. Features of the use of indices in legal statistics.
45. Modern organization of statistics in the Russian Federation and the main tasks.
46. ​​General characteristics of world criminological statistics.
47. Forecasting and forecasting crime in Russia.
48. Forecast of crime in the world.
49. The concept of relative values. The use of relative values ​​in
legal statistics.
50. The use of averages in legal statistics.

1. Subject and method of statistical science.

The subject of statistics is the quantitative characteristics of mass phenomena and processes of interest to the researcher in order to identify their qualitative originality and hidden patterns. Quantity and quality appear in statistics as two sides of the same. Quantity is a measure of things and phenomena, expressed using certain units of measurement and statistical indicators. Quantity in statistics always has a qualitative certainty. Quality is the properties of things and phenomena, expressed in the social certainty inherent in the existence of an object or phenomenon, in connection with which the object of study is precisely this, and not another. To study its subject, statistics develops and applies a variety of methods, the totality of which forms a statistical methodology. The application and statistical study of specific methods is predetermined by the tasks set for this and depends on the nature of the initial information.

The general basis for the development and application of statistical methodology are the principles of the dialectical approach to the study of the phenomena of social life. The most important provision of the dialectical method of cognition is the consideration of the phenomenon under study in development, the movement from occurrence to disappearance. Statistics studies the dynamics of social phenomena in their historical conditioning.

Statistics is based on the dialectical categories of the accidental and the necessary, the individual and the mass, the individual and the general.

Statistics method - this is a set of specific techniques and methods for studying mass phenomena, the main of which are: the method of statistical observation; method of statistical summary and grouping; method of deriving generalizing indicators; method of statistical analysis.

Statistical Observations - mass registration of the facts of the phenomenon of interest to us in accordance with the program of statistical observation. At the same time, the program of statistical observation is understood as a list of signs and issues on which the study of this phenomenon is carried out.

Statistical summary - this is a summing up of the results of statistical observation, calculation of group and general results of observation.

Statistical grouping - dismemberment of population units according to homogeneous characteristics.

Derivation of generalizing indicators - this is the calculation (calculation) of various kinds of quantitative indicators in accordance with the developed procedures of a mathematical and statistical nature.

Under statistical analysis refers to a scientifically based interpretation (interpretation) of absolute and general indicators obtained in the course of a statistical study, the derivation of new or the statement of already known patterns.

Along with the methodology, the method of statistics also uses the research methodology.

Research methodology - this is a set of tactics and methods for the most appropriate research. In the field of general theory of statistics and, accordingly, in legal statistics, the most developed methods and techniques for the implementation of statistical observation, the calculation of certain general indicators, statistical tables and graphs, groupings and regroupings, etc.

2. Subject and method of legal statistics.

Legal statistics is one of the branches of statistical science. In pre-revolutionary Russia, it was called judicial or criminal statistics. Abroad - most often moral statistics. After the October Revolution, in 1918, a department of moral statistics was formed as part of the Central Statistical Bureau, later renamed the department of social anomalies. In the mid-1920s, the department returned to its original name - the Department of Moral Statistics. However, in 1930 work on moral statistics was banned. In 1988, in accordance with the resolution of the Central Committee of the CPSU "On increasing the role of Marxist-Leninist sociology in solving the key social problems of Soviet society", the Department of Moral Statistics was again created as part of the State Committee of the USSR.

Subject of legal statistics : the study of the quantitative characteristics of mass legal and immoral manifestations and processes, aimed at identifying their qualitative originality and hidden patterns. Legal statistics method : this is a set of specific techniques and methods for studying mass phenomena, i.e., statistical observation, statistical summaries and groupings, calculation of generalizing indicators and statistical analysis.

The subject of administrative and legal statistics are, respectively, statistical patterns characterizing the movement of administrative offenses, persons who committed these offenses, and administrative measures applied to violators. The relevant statistical forms on these facts are filled in by the authorities that apply administrative measures to violators. courts, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, traffic police, various kinds of inspections, the administration of enterprises and institutions that register disciplinary violations and penalties.

The main tasks of legal statistics are as follows:

The study of indicators and patterns that characterize the structure, dynamics and general state of crime and offenses;
- identification of indicators characterizing the causes and conditions that contribute to the commission of crimes, offenses;

The study, with the help of statistical indicators, of the features and patterns that characterize the personality of the offender;

Examination of the quantitative characteristics of the work undertaken in the country in terms of ensuring law and order,
- statistical study with the aim of comparing and using positive experience in the field of strengthening law and order in other countries.

3. Legal statistics and its main branches.

Legal statistics in accordance with the three branches of law is divided into three main branches: criminal law, civil law and administrative law.

The subject of criminal law statistics are statistical patterns that characterize the movements, firstly, crime in all its manifestations, secondly, criminals and, thirdly, punishments and other measures applied to persons who have committed crimes.

A more specific description of the signs on which the crime is being studied is given by form No. 1, a single statistical card for the detected crime, used by the investigating authorities for the statistical recording of crimes. A detailed description of the identity of the offender is provided in form No. 2 (a single statistical card for the person who committed the crime).

After the sentence is pronounced, depending on the type of punishment, the convicts are recorded in the statistics of the execution of sentences. The subject of civil law statistics is: claims - plaintiffs and defendants - decisions on claims. All basic information about this is reflected in the corresponding form cards filled in by judges after considering each civil case.

The subject of administrative and legal statistics are, respectively, statistical patterns that characterize the movement of administrative offenses, persons who committed these offenses, and administrative measures applied to violators. The relevant statistical forms on these facts are filled in by the authorities that apply administrative measures to violators. The relevant statistical forms on these facts are filled in by the bodies applying administrative measures: courts, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the traffic police, various kinds of inspections

administration of enterprises and institutions, registering disciplinary violations and penalties.

Although the considered branches of legal statistics cover a fairly wide range of issues, they miss a lot. So, in order to develop moral statistics as a unified system of information support for science for the study and prevention of antisocial phenomena, it is proposed to include victimological statistics, statistics of immoral offenses, state-legal and international-legal statistics, statistics of minors as independent sections.

4. The importance of accounting and statistics in the life of society

In modern conditions, three main accounting are used: accounting operational and statistical.

Average values, as well as relative ones, are a kind of generalizing indicators.

However, unlike relative values, they characterize the phenomenon of interest to us not in terms of quality, but in terms of quantity, and are expressed by named, not abstract numbers.

For example, the average sentence for those convicted of murder out of jealousy is 10 years; the average life expectancy for men in Russia in 1994 was 57.3 years, for women - 71.1 years; the average monthly old-age pension for pensioners of the Tomsk region in 1996 was 206,794 rubles, in 1997 - 243,551 rubles. etc. Such examples can be cited as many as you like, which indicates the wide use of averages. At the same time, it must always be remembered that average values ​​give a correct idea of ​​the phenomenon under study only when they are used to characterize qualitatively homogeneous groups.

In this regard, the most important condition for obtaining reliable and reliable average values ​​is that these values ​​should be calculated only on the basis of preliminary scientifically substantiated groupings.

Failure to comply with this condition can lead to incorrect conclusions or ridiculous curiosities if, for example, we combine the so-called "new Russians" and semi-poor pensioners into one set, and then calculate their average annual income.

In legal statistics, average values ​​are used more often to characterize the average size of a claim, the average time for consideration of a particular category of cases, the average amount of damage, the average workload of investigators and judges, the average age of convicts, etc. According to their content and method of calculation, average values ​​are divided into several types: arithmetic mean (simple and weighted);

Structural averages (mode and median);

Progressive mean and others (eg geometric mean, harmonic mean).

22. Arithmetic mean.

The arithmetic mean is the most common type of average. It is of two types: simple arithmetic average and weighted arithmetic average.

The simple arithmetic mean is the quotient of dividing the sum of quantities by their number. The weighted arithmetic mean is used in cases where the values ​​of features are repeated several times. For example, in the city, 12 criminal cases per month are considered not by one, but by 10 investigators, 10 criminal cases by 18 investigators, 5 by 18 cases, and 7 investigators by 8 cases. In other words, the weighted arithmetic mean is the quotient of dividing the sum of the products of each feature value by the number of units having this value, by the total number of population units.

Sometimes the value of a sign is expressed not as a certain number, but as an interval "from - to".

In this case, you must first determine the centers of the intervals (as the arithmetic mean of the interval), and then make calculations.

23. Mode and median.

Mode and median are the simplest types of averages that do not require special calculations.

Mode is the value (numerical value of the attribute), which is most often found in the studied population. For example, 1,000 convicted rapists were distributed by age as follows:

from 14 to 20 years old - 650 people. from 20 to 30 years old - 250 people from 30 to 40 years old - 80 people. Over 40 years - 20 people.

In the studied population, the most common (650) is the numerical value of the trait “from 14 to 20 years old”. This will be a fashion that does not require any special calculations.

The median is the indicator that is located in the center of the so-called ranked series.

For example, mass riots (Article 212 of the Criminal Code, part 1) are punishable by imprisonment for a term of 4 to 10 years. The ranked series, built in ascending order of the sanction provided for by law with an interval of 1 year, will look like this: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. The median of the sanction in this case will be the sentence of 7 years, because this indicator is located in the center of the ranked row.

24. Relative intensity values. Coefficients.

Relative values ​​are generalizing indicators that characterize phenomena in their relationship to each other. According to its content, the relative values ​​of subdivisions into several types: the ratio of the part to the whole (= relative intensity); rel characterizing the structure of the population; dynamics; implementation of a plan; degree and comparison relations.

The ratio of the part to the whole (refers units of intensity) - indicators that characterize the ratio of the magnitude of the phenomenon under study to the number of the environment in which this phenomenon exists. They are often used in criminal law statistics to characterize the crime rate-prevalence of crimes in certain territories or k-l territories for several years. Kpr \u003d (P / N) * E, where P is the absolute number of crimes committed, N is the number of the population, E is the unit of the distribution environment. The prevalence rate is the ratio of the proportion of criminals of a certain group in their total number to the proportion of the same age group in the total population. Coeff pp: K1 / K2.

25. Relative values ​​of the population structure.

Relations characterizing the structure of the population (relative values ​​of the structure, distribution relations) are usually the percentages of individual parts of the population under study to their total, taken as 100.

The structure of crime is the ratio or proportion of certain types of crime to their total.

Relations that characterize the structure of the population (distribution relations) are widely used to characterize convicts by sex, age, social, marital status, level of education, and other characteristics.

For clarity, relative values ​​characterizing the structure of the population are often depicted in the form of bar or sector graphs. S=(B/C)*100%.

26. Relations that characterize the dynamics.

The relative values ​​of the dynamics are indicators characterizing the change in time of the phenomena of interest to us. They are widely used in the study of the dynamics of crime or the dynamics of certain types of crimes. The dynamics of crime is a change in its main indicators for a given period of time, it is the movement of crime towards growth, decrease or its stabilization.

The relative values ​​of the dynamics (growth rates, decline rates) are the percentage of the level of the phenomenon under study on the date of interest to us to the level taken as the base.

Thus, the growth rate (decrease) is determined by the following formula: Trosta \u003d (Level int / Level base) * 100%,

where Ur. int-level of interest to the researcher, i.e. the numerical value of the phenomenon on a certain date; Lv. bases - the numerical value of the phenomenon on the date taken as a reference point (base).

Distinguish basic and valuable rates of growth (decrease). When one, constant value for a certain date is taken as a reference point (base), then the basic growth (decline) rate is obtained.

When the value of each subsequent period is compared with the previous value of the series, then I get a valuable rate of growth (decrease). Chain growth rates are calculated by comparing each subsequent indicator with the previous one (and not with the base one).

27. Relative values ​​of the implementation of the plan. Crime detection rate.

Relative values ​​characterizing the implementation of the plan (up todialect): the percentage of the dynamic performance of some work to the planned (contractual) obligation.

The technique for calculating these values ​​is extremely simple: the plan is taken as a base, and the actual performance is percentageed to the planned (contractual) obligation. Vplan=(Actual\Plan)*100%.

The relative values ​​of the implementation of the plan (contract) are most often used in economic statistics, however, law enforcement officers, lawyers working in the economic sphere, very often have to deal with these types of relative values.

relative quantities degrees are used to compare heterogeneous quantities expressed in different units of measurement.

relative quantities comparisons also represent the quotient of dividing one quantity by another. However, the compared quantities must be homogeneous (as opposed to ratios of degree), comparable in content or in units of measurement.

29. Basic techniques and methods of statistical analysis.

Statistical analysis is based on a very large variety of different techniques and methods for studying statistical indicators.

The most common techniques and methods of statistical analysis are the method of grouping the phenomena under study according to certain characteristics into qualitatively homogeneous species or types (typological, structural, variational, analytical, secondary). These are distribution series (attribute and variation), dynamic and parallel series, these are generalizing indicators (relative and average values).

For a deeper and more comprehensive analysis, a wide range of other, more specialized techniques and methods are used. So, for example, along with the general coefficient (crime coefficient), differentiated coefficients of the prevalence of crime or convictions for different regions, among different groups of the population, among special subjects of crimes, etc. are widely used.

Much less frequently, in the analysis of crime, such most complex methods as the method of factorial statistical analysis, the index method of crime analysis, and others are used.

Statistical analysis often begins with the study of absolute indicators of the phenomenon of interest to us.

After that, it is necessary, based on the goals and objectives of the study, to break, for example, all registered crimes into qualitatively homogeneous groups or by type (murder, rape, theft, robbery, robbery, etc.), or depending on the nature and degree of public hazards by categories (small severity, moderate severity, severe and especially severe), or by other signs that are of interest to the researcher.

At this stage, the grouping method is widely used.

In addition to the grouping method for establishing correlations, connections and regularities of the studied phenomena, an extremely important place in statistics is occupied by generalizing indicators, which are divided into relative and average values.

Of the relative values ​​in the statistical analysis of crime, the most widely used are the relative values ​​characterizing:

1) the prevalence or intensity of the phenomenon (for example, the coefficient

crime rate, coefficient prestporage);

2) the structure of crime (the object of encroachment, the objective side of crimes, the subjects of crime, punishments);

3) dynamics.

The analysis of dynamics involves the ability to use such statistical techniques as calculating the absolute increase (decrease), growth (decrease), growth rate, and the value of one percent increase (decrease).

30. Interpolation, extrapolation and forecasting

Interpolation is an approximate calculation of the missing level, which is inside a ranged dynamic series (or inside a homogeneous period of an oscillating series)

Extrapolation is an approximate calculation of the missing level, located at the beginning or end of the ranked series. In those cases when a level is found at the beginning of the series, i.e., facing the past, the extrapolation is called retrospective, in the same cases when it is in the future, it is called prospective, or prospective.

Interpolation and extrapolation are necessarily based on the assumption that the trend (pattern) identified for the studied period of time will continue for some time in the future. The prognostic possibilities of extrapolation are also based on this: it is assumed that no shocks will occur in the development of the phenomenon under study, that at least for some period of time it will develop in the same direction. At the same time, since no more or less complex social phenomenon can remain completely unchanged in its development, such forecasting is of a probabilistic nature, and the forecasting error in this case will be equal to the extrapolation error.

When using extrapolation as a forecasting method, including legal and criminological processes, 2 questions inevitably arise:

How long can such a forecast be? There is no unequivocal answer to it, but the general judgment is as follows: the more stable, constant are the dynamic series and the phenomenon hidden behind it as a whole, the longer (and reliable) the forecast can be and, conversely, the more unstable the series, the shorter and less forecast must be reliable.

How long, “large” should be the time series, on the basis of which the extrapolation forecasting is carried out? At first glance, it would seem that the longer the previous period, the more reliable the forecast can be. But this is not always the case: the fact is that the longer the period, the more the conditions for the existence of both the phenomenon under study and the dynamic series reflecting it change. Therefore, the main criterion in determining the length of the initial dynamic series for forecasting should not be a formal assumption according to the principle “the more the better”, but the degree of constancy or variability of the environment of the predicted phenomenon and the statistical series: the more constant and stable the conditions, the longer may be the original row; the more unstable and changeable the conditions, the shorter the series should be.

As a general rule, for example, time series for 5-10 years are used in criminological forecasting.

31. Indicators of time series.

There are several types of indicators that are used to characterize the dynamic series - these are absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, the absolute value of one percent growth.

Absolute growth - this is the difference between the levels (indicators) of a number of subsequent and previous periods (with a valuable method of calculation) or the difference between the level of interest to us and the basic level (with the basic method of calculation). Growth rate - this is the percentage ratio of the level (indicator) of the next period to the previous one (with a valuable method of calculation). With the basic calculation method, the growth rate is a percentage of the level of interest to us to the level taken as the base of comparison. Rate of increase - this is the percentage of absolute growth to the base level (or to the level of the previous period with a valuable method of calculation). The absolute value of one percent increase is the quotient of absolute growth divided by the growth rate.

Growth rates can also be calculated in a simpler way (if growth rates are known): it is enough to subtract 100% from the growth rate indicator.

32. General concept of regularity and its types.

Regularities are the most essential, necessary, stable, recurring in the phenomena of the real world, and in relationships with each other.

Taking into account their origin, regularities are divided into empirical ones, expressing the connections between the sensibly observed properties of things and phenomena (for example, the Boyle-Mariatta law, etc.), and theoretical ones, revealing and explaining the deep connections of processes and the mechanisms of their flow, primarily on the basis of the transition from quantitative characteristics to qualitative and logical-mathematical research methods.

Depending on the sphere of action, regularities are divided into general, or universal, and specific. The former include such laws of nature as the law of conservation and transformation of energy, the law of universal gravitation, the laws of materialistic dialectics, and others. The second - laws related to one or another specific form of motion of matter or spheres of reality - biological, psychological, economic, etc.

From the point of view of the severity of determination, relationships of cause and effect, regularities are divided into dynamic and statistical.

Dynamic patterns are patterns that express a strictly necessary causal relationship, in which the relationship between cause and effect is unambiguous, strictly determined. For example, the law of Archimedes can be traced on a thousand objects immersed in a liquid, and on some one object.

Statistical patterns are those patterns that express the dialectical unity of necessity and chance, due to which the subsequent state of a phenomenon or system of phenomena is of a probabilistic nature. For example, patterns of fertility, mortality, crime, etc.

According to their qualitative content (society-nature), patterns are divided into social and natural. Natural - these are laws of a physical, chemical, biological, etc. nature.

Public or social patterns are objectively existing, recurring, essential connections between the phenomena of social life or the stages of the historical process that characterize the progressive development of history.

The number of social laws includes all processes occurring in public life, including legal and criminological ones.

33. Statistical patterns and their main features.

Statistical patterns are patterns that express the dialectical unity of necessity and chance, due to which the subsequent state of a phenomenon or system of phenomena acquires a probabilistic, ambiguous character.

They only show up when mass statistical observations. In a large number of observations, features that relate only to individual facts and are not characteristic of the essence of the entire population under study are mutually canceled out and thereby the regularity is manifested in all its qualitative and quantitative definiteness as a result of basic, essential causes.

In statistical regularities, dialectical unity of necessity and chance, as a result of which the future state of the phenomenon is always ambiguous, probabilistic.

Ustenacity or stability. They are act as trends. Trend - a certain direction of the process, as a result of modification by various circumstances. This means that the growth trend can also be realized through temporary declines - through temporary periods of the rise of the phenomenon. This is also confirmed by the practice of analyzing time series of crime and other legal processes.

Irregularity i.e., the external independence of individual facts from each other, which as a whole, in their usual mass, manifest themselves as statistical regularities. In other words, the external independence of events from each other is an individual manifestation of the common deep beginning of events.

The considered features of statistical regularities are only a part of their actual diversity.

34. Stages of statistical observation.

Statistical observation is a mass registration of facts of interest to the researcher in accordance with the program of statistical observation. Registration means that the researcher is never limited to visual observation, it is necessary to document the information. Bulk Registration: This is about registering not 1 but many facts. The program is a list of signs and questions, according to which this phenomenon is observed, a set of facts, which will be subject to further study. 3 stages of statistical observation: 1. Preparatory work. Issues to be resolved: purpose; drawing up a statistical plan, which defines the object and unit of observation (reporting), the unit of population and units of measurement, the time and place of observation and a number of organizational questions; development of a program (or several programs) statnabl. 2. Direct receipt of data, those filling in statistical documents, prog of statistical observation; 3.Control of received information. Deviations or differences between the calculated indicators and the true values, called errors, are: accidental and intentional. Counting and logical control can be applied.

35. The program of statistical observation.

Statistical Surveillance Program - this is a list, a system of signs and questions, on the basis of which the study of this phenomenon is carried out. The quality of the collected material and its value largely depend on how well the observation program is developed. The specific content of the program depends on many factors - on the object of observation, on the goals and objectives of the study, on the completeness of coverage of population units, etc.

Statistical theory and practice have developed a number of principles and requirements for the correct construction of a statistical observation program: it is necessary to choose the most significant features that characterize the phenomenon under study. When selecting signs for observation, one should proceed from the need to consider signs and phenomena in their interrelation and mutual conditionality. The program of statistical observation should be developed in such a way as to ensure the possibility of obtaining the most reliable and complete information. The simplicity, accuracy and unambiguity of the selected textual formulations of questions and features are important, guaranteeing their uniform interpretation and understanding by all participants in the study. It is necessary to ensure the comparability of the information received with the data of statistical studies of previous periods, and possibly parallel studies. The successful construction of an observation program is also facilitated by the definition of the object of observation, the unit of observation, as well as a clear establishment of the goal and objectives of statistical research.

A statistical observation program is often created in several stages: preparation of a version of the program; testing it on a small array; taking into account the identified shortcomings; development of the second version of the program; a new test is possible, etc.

The statistical observation program always presents a single document or, in other words, a statistical form.

Statistical forms These are forms of certain forms of accounting and reporting. Under the conditions of machine processing of observation results, technical means serve as information carriers: punched cards, punched tapes, magnetic disks (tapes, cards), etc.

There are two types of information carriers: individual and list forms.

An individual form contains information about one unit of the population (for example, a single statistical card for a detected crime (F. No. 1).

The list form contains data for several population units.

37. The basis of the grouping. Rules for the formation of groups and intervals of groups.

Grouping base - these are grouping characteristics that underlie the division of the population into homogeneous groups and subgroups. The entire x-r of the study and its conclusions depend on the correct choice of the base of r. The choice of a characteristic group should be carried out on the basis of a deep preliminary, professional study of the essence of the phenomenon and taking into account the specific history and territorial conditions in which the phenomenon under study is revealed, taking into account the complexity of the phenomenon, on which the number of grouping characteristics may depend. According to their origin, the bases of the grouping are divided into: natural, general social, specialized. According to the nature of the groups, the signs of mb are attributive and quantitative. Atr or qualitative features are always expressed in the form of certain properties, characteristic features of phenomena or objects. They cannot be expressed numerically. Quantity is expressed as a numerical value. There are discrete (only in whole units) and continuous. Grouping interval - min and max value of the quantities of the attribute., are open and closed, equal and not, specialized. Open: with 1 marked border. Unequal: the step size is different (up to a year, from a year to 3, etc.). Specialization: on the basis of signs and sizes specific to some phenomena, for example: grouping cities according to the number of inhabitants. When determining intervals, it is necessary: ​​that int unite native units; a change in an attribute within an int did not lead to the appearance of a new quality; chosen int coincided with int cat established in the current law; so that they ensure the comparability of information with similar groups; the selected ints made it possible to identify the most significant groups of population units.

38. Types of statistical groupings. secondary groups.

Typological, structural, variational and analytical groupings are used. In practice, they are used in combination.

Typological groupings - these are groupings aimed at identifying the largest types of phenomena (including socio-economic ones) and carried out by dividing a diverse mass of phenomena into homogeneous, qualitatively irreducible aggregates. Widely used in legal statistics. For example, the distribution of crimes by chapters of the criminal code, the distribution of convicts according to the types of punishments applied to them, the dismemberment of convicts by sex, by social status, etc. The main thing in all cases is the qualitative irreducibility of one group to another. Structural groupings - dismemberment into separate groups of aggregates that are generally homogeneous in their essence. Variational groupings - this is essentially a kind of structural groupings. If we take into account that structural ones are built on the basis of qualitative (attribute) features, then variational ones are created on the basis of a quantitative variable, i.e., a changing feature common to a given population. For example, the grouping of convicts sentenced to imprisonment according to the term of punishment, the grouping of claims for compensation for harm by size, etc.

Analytical groupings - these are groupings aimed at identifying the relationship between two or more features of the phenomenon under study or the phenomena themselves. These signs are divided into factorial and effective. Factor signs are called signs, under the influence of which other signs that depend on them, called effective ones, change.

In addition to groupings that can be called primary in statistics, there are also so-called secondary groupings , i.e. rearrangements of already grouped material. Secondary grouping is resorted to when previously produced groupings do not make it possible to deeply investigate the phenomena under study, to establish the patterns of their development, their typical features.

39. Rows of distribution.

The results of the summary and grouping of statistical observation materials are drawn up in the form of statistical distribution series and tables.

The distribution series are the series of numerical indicators that characterize the distribution of units of the studied population depending on the grouping attribute. They characterize the composition (structure) of the phenomenon under study, make it possible to judge the homogeneity of the population, the boundaries of its change, and the patterns of development of the observed object.

Depending on the grouping characteristic, distribution series can be: 1) attributive, if they are formed according to a qualitative characteristic (specialty, nationality, gender, etc.); 2) variational, if they are formed on a quantitative basis (the term of imprisonment, the size of the fine, the amount of the claim, etc.).

Variational series are divided into two types: discrete and interval. In discrete series, the distribution of a feature is given only in the form of integers. For example, the number of accused in one criminal case. In interval series, the variation of the trait under study is given as a continuously changing value, i.e., the value of the trait can be expressed by any fractional number. For example, terms of imprisonment varying within a year (6 months, 9 months, etc.). For interval variation series, it is characteristic that they are built on the basis of a quantitative trait, expressed as an interval "from ... to".

40. Medium progressive.

The progressive mean is the arithmetic mean calculated from scores that are above the arithmetic mean for the entire population.

For example, 5 athletes ran a 100-meter race with the following results:

1st in 15s, 2nd in 12s, 3rd in 10s, 4th in 14s, 5th in 19s The arithmetic average for the entire population will be equal to 14 seconds. The average progressive will be equal to 11 sec. And vice versa, the arithmetic mean, calculated from indicators that are inferior in its value to the arithmetic mean of the entire population, can be called regressive mean, i.e., the average for the worst indicators, which indicators in our example are the indicators of the 1st (15 sec.) and 5th 19 (sec.) athletes. Thus, the average regression will be equal to 17 sec, those are (17 + 19) \ 2.

41. Indicators of variation

To characterize the degree of homogeneity of the studied population, the degree of fluctuation of individual knowledge of a sign from the average for the entire population, the so-called indicators of variation are used: the range of variation, the average linear deviation, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. Span variation - this is the difference between the maximum and minimum value of the attribute for this population. Shows only the difference between the maximum and minimum values ​​of the trait under study, without touching the degree of fluctuation (variation) of the traits of other units of the population.

Average linear deviation - this is the arithmetic mean, obtained from the absolute deviations of the individual values ​​of the trait from the arithmetic mean for the entire population.

Standard deviation is determined by taking the square root of the sum of the squares of the linear deviations divided by the number of individual values ​​of the characteristics of the studied population. The coefficient of variation : percentage of the standard deviation to the arithmetic mean.

42. Conditions for the correct construction of time series.

The main condition for the correct construction of a dynamic series is to ensure the comparability of the levels of the series (numerical values ​​of the phenomenon under study).

The comparability of the levels (indicators) of the series is ensured by strict adherence to a number of rules for constructing a dynamic series.

1. All indicators of the dynamic series must be expressed in the same units of measurement. If, for example, the dynamics of crime is analyzed, then all indicators of the dynamic series should be expressed either in the number of registered crimes; or in the number of people convicted of crimes, etc. It is clear that these indicators can differ significantly from each other.

2. All indicators of the dynamic series are calculated according to a single methodology, in the same way.

3. All indicators of the dynamic series should be the same in terms of completeness of coverage of the studied population. This means that all indicators of the time series should refer to equal periods of time (or per month, or per quarter, or per year, etc.), to the same territory.

Finally, it is quite clear that for the correct construction of a dynamic series, it is necessary to ensure the complete reliability of all indicators of the series, their scientific validity, since any negligence, inaccuracy can fundamentally distort the pattern (trend) being studied.

43. The concept and types of indices.

Index-relative value (indicator), expressing the change

complex phenomenon in time, in space or in comparison with the plan. In this regard, there are dynamic, territorial indices, as well as indices of the implementation of the plan.

either to different periods of time, or to a planned task, or to

various territories. In this regard, a distinction is made between the base period (the period to

to which the value being compared refers) and the reporting period

(the period to which the compared value refers) . When calculating, it is important

choose the correct period to be used as the base of comparison. Indexes can

refer either to individual elements of a complex phenomenon, or

to the entire phenomenon. Indicators that characterize the change in more or less homogeneous objects that make up a complex phenomenon are called individual indices. An index is named after the indexed value. In most cases, the numerator is the current level, and the denominator is

base level. Indices are measured either as percentages (%) or as

coefficients. The complex phenomena for which the composite index is calculated are distinguished by the fact that the elements that make them up are heterogeneous and, as

usually incommensurable with each other. Comparability can be achieved in various ways: complex phenomena can be broken down into such simple elements that are to a certain extent homogeneous; The purpose of index theory is to study the methods of obtaining relative values ​​used to calculate the total

changes in a number of heterogeneous phenomena.

Composite indices in aggregate form allow us to measure not only the relative change in individual elements of the phenomenon under study and the phenomenon as a whole in the current period compared to the base one, but also the absolute change.

The aggregate form of the index is one of the most important, but not the only one. In practical calculations, average indices are very often used. The quotient of the subsequent basic index divided by the previous index gives us the chain index for the corresponding period.

45. Modern organization of state statistics in the Russian Federation, its tasks.

Principles: centralized leadership, unified organizational structure

and methodology, an inextricable link with the public administration.

The system of state statistics has a hierarchical structure. This

structure has a federal, republican, regional, regional, district,

city ​​and district levels. Goskomstat has departments, departments, a computer center. Tasks of statistics: Organization of statistical activities. Development of analysis methodology. To popularize the data of statistical observation. In general, the tasks of statistics manifest themselves as follows:

To give an objective picture of the state of society, its economy, culture, science, moral and other important indicators of well-being and (and) trouble at a particular point in time;

Allow for constant monitoring of the implementation of various national economic programs and identify imbalances, deviations in certain areas of development. + Development of a system of indicators for managing the economy at the macro and micro levels .;

They can act as the most important basis for scientific planning for the further development of society.

49. The concept of relative values. Application in statistics.

All statistical values ​​can be divided into 2 large groups: absolute values ​​and generalizing indicators (also includes average values). Relates quantities: generalizing indicators, the cat characterizes phenomena in their relationship to each other. In the form of expression, they usually act as multiple ratios (when a unit is taken as the base) or as a percentage. According to their content, they are divided into several types: the ratio of the part to the whole (relative to intensity); characterizing the structure of the population; dynamics; implementation of the plan; relations of degree and comparison. Requirements for calculation: comparability of indicators by time, place, other data in the comparison base.

The relative value shows how many times

the compared value is greater or less than the base value, or what fraction is the first

is relative to the second. In some cases, the relative value

shows how many units of one quantity are per unit of another.

An Important Property – Relative Magnitude Abstracts Differences

absolute values ​​and allows you to compare such phenomena, absolute sizes

which are not directly comparable.

Widely used in various branches of statistics, they allow the most profound analysis of the studied phenomena, giving them not only quantitative, but also qualitative assessments.

50. Application of cf values ​​in the legal art.

Average values ​​are a kind of generalizing indicators that characterize the phenomenon of interest to us not in terms of quality but in terms of quantities and are expressed by named, not abstract numbers. In the law of statistics, average values ​​are used more often to characterize the average size of a claim, the average time for consideration of a particular category of cases, the average amount of damage, the workload of investigators and judges, the age of convicts, etc.

Types of statistical observation.

Statistical observation is subdivided into:

In terms of coverage of population units - into continuous and non-continuous;

By the time of holding - into continuous (current), one-time and periodic;

According to the method of organization - to specially organized statistical observation and reporting (discussed in the previous lecture);

According to sources of information - for direct observation, documentary and questioning;

According to the method of registration - forwarding, questionnaire, correspondent, self-registration.

Statistical methods - methods for analyzing statistical data.

There are methods of applied statistics that can be used in all areas of scientific research and any sectors of the national economy, and other statistical methods, the applicability of which is limited to a particular area. This refers to methods such as statistical acceptance control, statistical control of technological processes, reliability and testing, and design of experiments.

It is advisable to distinguish three types of scientific and applied activities in the field of statistical methods of data analysis (according to the degree of specificity of methods associated with immersion in specific problems):

a) development and research of general purpose methods, without taking into account the specifics of the field of application;

b) development and research of statistical models of real phenomena and processes in accordance with the needs of a particular field of activity;

c) application of statistical methods and models for statistical analysis of specific data.

Let us briefly consider the three types of scientific and applied activity that have just been identified. As you move from a) to c), the breadth of the scope of a particular statistical method narrows, but its importance for the analysis of a particular situation increases. If works of type a) correspond to scientific results, the significance of which is assessed according to general scientific criteria, then for works of type c) the main thing is the successful solution of specific problems of a particular field of application (engineering and technology, economics, sociology, medicine, etc.). Works of the type b) occupy an intermediate position, since, on the one hand, the theoretical study of the properties of statistical methods and models intended for a certain field of application can be very complex and mathematical (see, for example, the monograph), on the other hand, the results are not universal. interest, but only for a certain group of specialists. It can be said that works of type b) are aimed at solving typical problems of a specific field of application.

Description of the type of data and, if necessary, the mechanism of their generation is the beginning of any statistical study. Note that both deterministic and probabilistic methods are used to describe the data. With the help of deterministic methods, it is possible to analyze only those data that are available to the researcher. For example, they were used to obtain tables calculated by official state statistics bodies on the basis of statistical reports submitted by enterprises and organizations. It is possible to transfer the obtained results to a wider set, to use them for prediction and control, only on the basis of probabilistic-statistical modeling. Therefore, only methods based on probability theory are often included in mathematical statistics, leaving deterministic methods to the economic academic discipline "General Theory of Statistics".

The quantitative side of state-legal phenomena is the subject of scientific study using statistical methods. In particular, criminological statistics explores various quantitative aspects of offenses - criminal, civil, administrative, their structure and dynamics, their causes and conditions, the effectiveness of control measures.

One of the methods of statistics is mass observation method , which is based on the use of the law of large numbers, the latter is understood as a general principle under the influence of which the cumulative action of a large number of random facts leads to a result that is almost independent of chance. This makes it possible identify a pattern where only the surface of phenomena can be observed sensually.

Grouping method allows body of facts, which are being investigated divide on the individual qualitatively homogeneous kinds(for example, on the types of crimes in accordance with the Special Part of the Criminal Code). Groupings are usually subdivided into three types:

typological, which dismember the diverse mass of phenomena into qualitatively homogeneous categories or types (for example, the breakdown of theft by individual sectors of the national economy);

variational, characterizing the structure of the population according to any quantitative attribute (for example, the age structure of convicts);

analytical, with the help of which the interdependence of phenomena is established (for example, the relationship between crime and certain social conditions).

Method summary indicators is aimed at converting absolute values ​​into so-called generalizing indicators - average and relative values, the character of one number is the typical, widespread aspects of the phenomena under study, abstracting from the particular, individual and random, and this makes it possible to establish and measure the patterns of various mass processes.