We can foresee the future on an ordinary level (for example, according to signs that have become popular with Russian entrepreneurs), trust our intuition or entrust ourselves to mystical powers (prophecy, divination, horoscope). Foresight can also be built as a scientific study, and then it is no longer a premonition, not a prediction, but a forecast.

The concept of forecast.A forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty 16 . Prophecy does not imply the likelihood of its fulfillment: it must come true. The forecast is probabilistic and logically constructed as a model of the future.

In management, an instrumental interpretation of the forecast has been formed as a planning method, in which the prediction of the future is based on accumulated experience and current assumptions about the future 17 .

Forecast and globalistics. With the development of cybernetics, forecasting began to develop as a practical and applied scientific activity. Since the end of the 60s of the XX century, the assessment of the global prospects of mankind has become its most important direction. In this activity, a philosophical understanding of the future was realized, which unexpectedly received powerful arguments from detailed calculations. This direction of forecasting was largely formed under the influence of reports Club of Rome.

The Club of Rome is an international community of leading economists, specialists in management theory, sociologists, political scientists and politicians, founded in 1968 by the Italian economist A. Peccei to develop global predictive models. Until the middle of the 1990s, the preparation by members of the club, the discussion and publication of summarizing reports on pressing global problems was the main form of work of the Club of Rome.

The first report "Limits to Growth" (1972), made under the direction of D. Meadows on the basis of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was based on the Mir-2 cybernetic program of one of the largest experts in the field of control theory, J. Forrester. D. Meadows (Forester's graduate student) modified this program. In the new Mir-3 program, key factors (global population, food production, natural resources, industrial production, environment) were modeled on the basis of existing trends (2 percent annual growth, doubling in about 30 years, and for industrial production the data of the 1960s were recalculated on the basis of a 5-7% increase per year, doubling in 10-15 years). The conclusion of the report "Limits to Growth" was that already in the first decades of the 21st century, a catastrophe awaits mankind 18 . The publication of this and subsequent reports to the Club of Rome invariably became a worldwide sensation and led to the intensification of predictive research. From the tenth report "Routes leading to the future", prepared by the director of the International Institute of Management Bogdan Gavrylyshyn (1980), a new stage of global forecasting began, the content of which is the transition to the analysis of socio-political institutions, reliance on the study of "political reality", an attempt to determine " societal efficiency” of various countries. Guidelines for an effective society in socio-economic, political and cultural relations 19 began to be developed. In fact, this was the beginning of social forecasting on a global scale.

Today in the Club of Rome there is a realization that the days of analysis and giving recommendations in the form of reports are over (reports are only archived!). Now the priority of the club has become the desire to influence the state of affairs in the world.

The preparation of reports is only the first stage of work on a particular problem. At the next stages, participation in debates and other forms of persuasion of the leaders of states and international organizations, participation in managerial decision-making at the national and international levels is expected. The Declaration of the Club of Rome (1996) states that this international association "desires to strengthen its role as a catalyst for change and as a center of innovation and initiative" 20 .

The direct connection between the forecast and management decisions both at the global and local levels, thus, is increasingly relevant for social management. The desire to consolidate this connection on a scientific basis predetermined the development of social forecasting, and more recently, its wider application in social design.

Features of forecasting social phenomena and processes. There is a noticeable difference between forecasting within the natural and technical sciences, on the one hand, and within the social sciences, on the other. The weather forecast, for example, can be set with a high degree of probability. But at the same time, it cannot be canceled by a managerial decision. Within small limits, a person can consciously change the state of the weather (for example, it is possible to clear the sky from clouds in connection with a major public holiday or stimulate avalanches in the mountains), but these are very rare cases of counteraction to the forecast. Basically, a person has to adapt his actions to the weather (take an umbrella if rain is expected; put on warm clothes if it is cold, etc.).

The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Having predicted an undesirable social process, we can stop it or modify it in such a way that it does not show its negative qualities. Having predicted a positive process, we can actively contribute to its development, contribute to its expansion in the territory of action, coverage of people, duration of manifestation, etc.

Social innovation has specific features among other innovations: if in the scientific, technical, economic spheres the meaning of innovation is to achieve greater efficiency, then in the social sphere, establishing efficiency is problematic. How is this determined?

1. In the social sphere, the improvement of the position of some people can create tension (sometimes only psychological) for others. Social innovation is evaluated through the prism of the value-normative system.

Karl Marx (1818-1883) in his work “Wage Labor and Capital” (1849) gave an expressive description of the social assessment of the acceptability of housing: “No matter how small a house is, but as long as the surrounding houses are just as small, it satisfies all requirements for housing” 21 . It must be said that the housing problem, precisely because of such social assessments, is perceived as acute, although housing construction is ongoing. Today, it is unlikely that anyone in Moscow will be satisfied with a room in a communal apartment in a wooden house, without running water, gas, with a toilet in the yard, although back in the 50s such housing was perceived as completely acceptable, since many Moscow families lived this way.

2. The successful solution of some social problems may give rise to other problems or turn out to be a success not in the sense in which the task was understood.

Thus, an attempt to transfer to the USSR the experience of the GDR, Bulgaria and other countries in offsetting credit obligations to a young family in the event of the birth of children did not take into account that in the USSR there were two demographic problem situations: for 80% of the population it was a problem of a one-child family, for 20% it continued "population explosion" 22 . I had to abandon such a solution to the problem.

Social forecasting faces the same problems as social engineering. Who and on what grounds recognizes one social process as desirable and another as dangerous? Where is the line separating the positive from the negative in a social forecast? Once again, we enter the field of value characteristics. Dependence on people's value relations is an important specific feature of social forecasting.

Thus, the objectivity of a social forecast is of a special kind; it is realized in the context of a particular value-normative system. Only if the social forecast is based on this system can it have a positive impact on social practice.

"The Oedipal Effect". If we know an unfavorable forecast and we take certain actions in view of it, aimed at ensuring that it does not materialize, we may well achieve success in this. A change in objects or processes that occurs as a result of the implementation of management decisions that take into account the results of the forecast, called in prognostication "Oedipus effect".

The "Oedipus effect" appears where the solution, as it were, crosses out the prediction, leads to "self-fulfillment" or "self-destruction" of the prediction 23 . The predicted undesirable event does not occur in this case, not because of the inaccuracy of the forecast, but, on the contrary, because of the timely response to an accurate forecast that was not allowed to materialize.

"The Pygmalion Effect". It has long been noted that predicting success mobilizes people to do things that would otherwise be impossible. We call this phenomenon "Pygmalion effect": a special desire for success and creativity are able, as they say, to revive even a stone (as happened in the famous ancient Greek myth of Galatea).

The essence of the effect is seen in the fact that the forecast acts as an orienting stimulus for people's behavior, it affects the emotional-sensory, rational and volitional spheres of the human psyche, the realization creative(creative) abilities of people.

At the same time, such an incentive should be perceived as a temporary factor, as a kind of "fair wind" that can change.

Attention to this circumstance is often guessed in the marketing of certain goods and services (although only economic calculation is most often visible on the surface), since when selecting target markets, measurements and forecasting of demand are carried out, taking into account all the expected factors. The example of Atari's work in the video game market is instructive. In 1977 The release of video games on cassettes was a huge success for the company, but the firm's strategic planning took into account the opinion of experts who predicted a drop in demand for cassettes used in game consoles as the home computer market saturates. The firm was able to reorganize its activities in time 24 .

The same psychological effect is present in predicting failure. The forecast of a catastrophe can cause panic and complete demoralization of people, or, conversely, rally them in opposition to the threat.

Technology of social forecasting. The typical method of social forecasting, according to I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada 25 , contains 44 operations, summarized in seven procedures:

1. Development of the research program(pre-forecast orientation): definition and refinement of the object, subject, goal, objectives, structure, working hypotheses, methodology and organization of the study.

2. Construction of the initial (basic) model and its analysis: clarification of the parameters of the "innovation field", the formulation of alternative options, their ranking based on priority.

3. Building a predictive background model and its analysis: consideration of external factors affecting the fate of innovation, determination of the possible consequences of innovation for the system (the standard forecast background contains seven groups of data: 1) scientific, technical and environmental, 2) demographic, 3) economic, 4) sociological, 5) sociocultural, 6) domestic political, 7) foreign policy 26).

4. Search forecast: variable direct "weighing" of the consequences of the planned innovation with the definition of a "problem tree".

5. Normative forecast: determination of possible ways to solve the problems identified by the predictive search, the ideal (without taking into account the limitations of the forecast background) and the optimal (taking into account these limitations) state of the system into which the innovation is introduced; correction of the "weighting" data of the consequences obtained in the predictive search.

6. Forecast verification, determination of the degree of its reliability, accuracy and validity.

Even in the most simplified versions, the social forecast is basically based on this technology, which sets both the content and the sequence of actions. Of particular importance for practical purposes is the division of the forecast into search and normative.

Search forecast.A search forecast is such a prediction of a social situation at a certain point in the future, which is based on an analysis of the states of a social phenomenon or process in the past and present. For social innovations, the exploratory forecast captures the future states of the given innovation and its environment, based on the detected trends.

The essence of the search forecast is to "find out what will happen, what problems will arise or mature if the existing development trends continue, that is, provided that the management sphere does not develop any solutions that can modify unfavorable trends" 27 . The purpose of the search forecast is to establish a promising problem situation 28 .

The search forecast is very important for working out the issues of the viability of a social project. It allows you to solve several problems at once. First, it outlines the potential of the social problem, its future growth or decline, which is the backdrop for the project. Secondly, it demonstrates the potential for innovation that the project carries, its ability to make positive changes. Thirdly, he warns about the possible negative consequences of innovation.

An example of a exploratory forecast is the examination of events planned in 1990, carried out with our participation. Council of Ministers of the RSFSR in connection with the resettlement of Soviet military personnel and members of their families from Germany to their homeland. It was assumed that new settlements in the Non-Chernozem region would be built for the settlers according to Western standards. The experts proceeded from the fact that the resettlement of such a grandiose scale could not be considered only as an organizational and technical and economic task. It was also about resolving the most complex socio-cultural problem. It has been suggested that it is the socio-cultural aspect of the project that is decisive for the effective investment of such large material and financial resources. Here are some of the findings:

Professionally, those who have arrived do not constitute a group that is self-sufficient for autonomous living in a separate city, town, village. In this regard, the construction of new settlements (which was the main task of the project. - V.L.) dangerous not only in terms of possible environmental errors, but primarily in terms of the social unformedness of new large settlements, which is always fraught with social instability.

Construction on the basis of the established historical centers of the Non-Black Earth Region, which is generally more preferable, poses the problem of combining the traditional way of Russian cities with material and spiritual innovations foreign to them. The obvious revival of life in such historical centers will be perceived by the local population (and local leadership) as nothing more than external expansion. Resistance is inevitable.

The construction of new settlements and infrastructures of the western type will give rise to the migration of the population of nearby zones to such settlements. Refugees will be drawn there. In fact, a situation will arise when the funds raised will not provide for the migrants to live according to the standard of living planned by the investors. From the idea, an average solution may remain, economically inefficient and spiritually miserable.

The experts concluded that the named negative consequences of the implementation of this project are largely inevitable, but their manifestation can be significantly mitigated, and to some extent overcome by introducing a block of socio-cultural design.

Positive processes, previously analyzed using predictive methods, in the expert opinion were as follows:

1. Settlers who have been trained in civilian professions in Germany will bring with them a new professional and organizational culture. Rationally located production facilities based on the achievements of the scientific and technological revolution will be able to rely on qualified personnel potential. Thus, the outstripping social and cultural development of the places of the new settlement, which will arise as a result of a large currency and material-production injection, will continue as a trend for decades.

2. The delicate intervention of new construction in the existing structure of historical Russian centers and especially the formation of a modern social infrastructure will give these centers dynamism. The economic and spiritual dynamism of small and medium-sized cities in Russia is a decisive condition for the development of Russia, and the unfolding of this process in the Non-Black Earth region, on the near approaches to Moscow, is most consistent with the traditions of Russian spiritual life.

3. "Oasis" settlements, which will be settlements built with funds, according to projects and materials from the FRG, with all the disadvantages of a sociocultural nature, have an important advantage: they act as a kind of landmarks, models that will lead to a series of direct and indirect imitations ( according to the type of plan of the Moscow "New Cheryomushki", reproduced in various cities of the country) and, accordingly, searches in areas that previously did not receive public recognition and support.

4. The presence of a large contingent of young people among the migrants raises the question of the education system in the places of new settlements, and this can turn from a problem into one of the achievements. The development of large educational centers in small towns of the Non-Chernozem region should be carried out according to the model of university campuses. In such university centers new forms of reunification of the intellectual forces of Russia and the West would be possible.

In the above example, there is no hierarchy of highlighted issues. In other cases, search forecasting allows you to formalize the problem field in the form of a “problem tree”, which was discussed above (in Chapter 3). It is important to emphasize that in the last group of assessments, forecasting actually turns into the concept of a social project.

Normative forecast.A normative forecast is a prediction of the future states of a social phenomenon (process), provided that active actions are taken in relation to it in accordance with pre-established goals, rules and indicators. In our case, this means that the future states of social innovation and its environment are predicted according to previously known standards.

The essence of the normative forecast is the optimization of the management decision, i.e., the choice of the best (from the possible) solution in accordance with the intended goal. In the search forecast, an assessment is given of the probable, in the normative - the desirable (subject to predetermined norms) state of the social object 29 .

As part of the development of a normative forecast, it is especially important to apply the principle, which is called Pareto efficiency. Pareto-efficient is a position that allows you to provide at least one person with more welfare in such a way as not to reduce the welfare of anyone else.

This approach is used in world practice in the organization of the public sector economy. E. B. Atkinson and J. E. Stiglitz in their Lectures on the Economics of the Public Sector, in particular, write: positions of the Pareto concept” 30 .

It is obvious that this principle may well be applied to the peculiarities of the social sphere.

Since the normative forecast is associated with goal setting, within its framework, the systematization of goals in the form of their hierarchy as a “tree of goals” has been greatly developed (for a “tree of goals”, see Chapter 3).

Forecasting and the problem of risk management. To a certain extent, the various goals of social forecasting can be reduced to identifying likely risks and identifying ways to avoid them. Of course, this is only one side of the assumptions about the future of our project. Forecasting will show us the positive aspects of the project, will allow us to establish our intention to implement it. But we should remember what we set when planning the project (see Chapter 3) the rule of consequences according to which it is recognized that every project has positive and negative consequences and one should strive to minimize the negative and maximize the positive consequences of its implementation.

Given this, we can recognize that even the most remarkable achievements that a project promises us are worth little if the risk of negative consequences of its implementation is high.

The problem of risk management has become one of the most urgent for society today. Global, regional, local risks have become extremely diverse, and their identification and prevention has become the most important task of ensuring international and national security. Emergencies have become commonplace. The level of risk of natural and man-made disasters at the beginning of the 21st century is extremely high.

On this basis, a theoretical concept of the opposite of risk and security has been developed. Perhaps most of all, this is seen in the concepts of emergency risk management, in which the concept of about risk as about the probability of a catastrophe and the damage that it can cause. The risk assessment in this case takes the form of a numerical mark on a scale that fixes the indicators of expected losses in a particular area at a certain time.

At the scientific-practical conference "Emergency Risk Management" held by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, the Ministry of Industry and Science and the Russian Academy of Sciences (2001), it was determined that the main task of risk management should include both assessing the size of a particular risk and assessing how big the risk is. for us. It follows from this that the risk management process has two sides: 1) an objective risk assessment is based on various data correlated with established indicators and standards; 2) subjective assessment is based on an analysis of how the given risk (probable danger) is perceived by society and what are the ideas that have developed in public opinion about ways to overcome the risk. “Thus, the first step in risk management is the calculation of risk probability. The second stage is its qualitative assessment, i.e., the idea of ​​its importance” 31 .

A broader understanding of the specifics of risks is provided by concepts in which risk is opposed to uncertainty. An indeterminate situation is a situation in which two or more opposite possibilities can become real at once. The risk in this case is way to overcome uncertainty because it means choosing one of the possibilities 32 .

It is obvious that such an approach covers a much wider range of phenomena, including those related to the peculiarities of people's daily lives. The concept of "risk society" has grown out of it, which proceeds from the notion that modern society has risk as its necessary component: the production and distribution of wealth gives way to the production and distribution of risks and threats. The task is not so much in anticipating and reducing risks, but in adapting a person to life in conditions of uncertainty, to actions in a situation of risk 33 .

Such an interpretation of risks is more consistent with the peculiarities of predicting the consequences of social design. It also requires a more careful attitude to traditional methods of social forecasting, since the difficulties of their application depend on the level of social control, on how much we are able to stop the “rushing truck” (an image used by the prominent English sociologist Anthony Giddens to characterize risk-producing modernity) 34 .

Nevertheless, the main methods of social forecasting may well be used in assessing the viability of social projects.

The main methods of social forecasting. Forecasting is a type of professional activity closely related to the current level of development in a number of areas of mathematics. Until recently, specialists with a good mathematical education and practical programming experience were mainly involved in predictive research. But the computerization of society has changed the picture. What used to be within the competence of only mathematicians has become part of the software packages available to any user. Many of those who do not have special mathematical training (although it is, of course, desirable in this work) have approached forecasting. The humanists have brought more realistic and meaningful interpretations of the data to forecasting. This had a positive impact primarily on social forecasting, which in many respects remains the art of interpretation.

The main methods of social forecasting are extrapolation, modeling, expertise

Extrapolation. Extrapolation is the distribution of conclusions made in the study of one part of a phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. In the social field, it is a way of predicting future events and states, based on the assumption that some trends that have manifested themselves in the past and in the present will continue.

Extrapolation example: a series of numbers 1,4, 9, 16 suggests that the next number will be 25, since the beginning of the series is the squares of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. We extrapolated the found principle to the unwritten part of the rad.

Extrapolation is widely used in demography when calculating the future size of the population, its sex and age and family structures, etc. Using this method, the future rejuvenation or aging of the population can be calculated, the characteristics of fertility, mortality, marriage rates are given in periods that are several years away from the present. decades.

With the help of computer programs (Exel, etc.) it is possible to build an extrapolation in the form of a graph in accordance with the available formulas.

Modeling. Modeling is a method of studying objects of knowledge on their counterparts - real or mental.

An analogue of an object can be, for example, its layout (reduced, proportionate or enlarged), drawing, diagram, etc. In the social sphere, mental models are more often used. Working with models allows you to transfer experimentation from a real social object to its mentally constructed duplicate and avoid the risk of an unsuccessful, all the more dangerous for people, management decision. The main feature of a mental model is that it can be subject to any kind of tests, which practically consist in changing the parameters of itself and the environment in which it (as an analogue of a real object) exists. This is the great advantage of the model. It can also act as a model, a kind of ideal type, an approximation to which may be desirable for the creators of the project.

In modern concepts of social management, it is established that the modeling method answers the question of how goal setting is carried out. This means that the construction of a social model presupposes, among other things, the definition of the general goal of the social system (maintaining its integrity and conditions for development) and the division of the general goal into a number of subgoals 35 . In social design, it is more accurate to say that a model created on the basis of a plan and preliminary information makes it possible to identify, clarify and limit the goals of the project being developed.

At the same time, the disadvantage of the model is its simplification. Certain properties and characteristics of a real object in it are coarsened or not taken into account at all as insignificant. If this were not done, the work with the model would be extremely complicated, and the model itself would not contain dense, compact information about the object. And yet there are potential errors in the application of modeling to social engineering and forecasting.

The main stages of mathematical modeling will be presented in accordance with the description of BA Suslakov 36 .

1. First, a mathematical model (“mathematical image”) of the object (phenomenon, process) under study is formulated. The most significant relationships that characterize the object are selected, while others (side, random) are discarded. The selected links are written in the form of equations.

2. The model must be studied with different parameter values. For this, numerical methods (computational algorithms) are used. The choice of a computational algorithm is the content of this stage of work.

3. The computational algorithm is being translated into a programming language.

4. To obtain data on the properties of the object being modeled, which are included in the model in the form of equation coefficients, an auxiliary computational experiment is carried out.

5. Mathematical methods are used to process observational data on the behavior and states of a real object.

6. Calculations are made on the computer according to the compiled program. The result of the experiment carried out on the model is recorded in a set of numbers.

7. At the final stage, the results are analyzed and compared with other data obtained both theoretically and as a result of real experimentation.

These are the stages of mathematical modeling of social phenomena and processes, which is a complex professional activity. With the development of computer programs, mathematical modeling becomes available to a much larger number of creators of social projects, including small ones.

Modeling can also be applied in non-mathematical forms.

Modeling specialist Yu.M. Plotinsky rightly writes: “The idea that the model can only be mathematical, rooted in school years, is deeply erroneous. The model can also be formulated in natural language” 37 .

This circumstance is important to take into account in social design. Modeling techniques can facilitate design tasks and make the project visible. Many, while talking, hold a sheet of paper in front of them and, in the course of presenting their point of view, fix the main points, indicate the links between them with arrows and other signs, etc. This is one of the common forms visualization, widely used in modeling. Visualization is able to more clearly reveal the essence of the problem and clearly indicate in which directions it can be solved and where to expect success and where failure.

Interesting ideas in the field of visualization have recently been proposed by a well-known specialist in management and organizational consulting, Yu. D. Krasovsky. The methodological tool that he proposed for diagnosing organizations turned out to be very simple and universal, and besides, it was also suitable for constructing managerial scenarios. This or that organizational problem is presented in the form of a model: a cross-shaped intersection of two 10-point scales, each of which is constructed as a pole differentiation of a trait. This is how, for example, the problem of visualizing a model of possible counseling strategies is solved. 38

Many other models are built in this way, for example, the orientational model of the preferred behavior of company employees: "client behavior - anti-client behavior", "pseudo-client behavior - client-selective behavior". Diagnostics of the firm is easily carried out in such a coordinate system, and possible trends of movement towards one or another perspective are immediately clear (usually along a diagonal passing through the intersection of coordinates). We can say that Krasovsky managed to develop express methods of visual modeling that make it possible to bring the tasks of diagnosing an organization as close as possible to the tasks of decision making.

The value of non-mathematical modeling for social design is very high. The model allows not only to develop an effective managerial decision, but to simulate conflict situations that are likely when making a decision, and ways to reach agreement.

In fact, any kind of business games are simulations. Some of the domestic developments in this area (“innovative games” according to the method of V. S. Dudchenko, “ensemble games” according to the method of Yu. D. Krasovsky) can be successfully applied in social design precisely from the standpoint of developing various predictive models.

The analysis and modeling of social systems has recently been developed into an autonomous sociological discipline with original mathematical software.

Expertise. Expertise is a special method of forecasting. In social design, it is used not only to solve problems of predictive justification, but also wherever it is necessary to deal with issues with a low level of certainty of the parameters to be studied.

Expertise in the context of research on artificial intelligence is interpreted as a resolution of a hard-to-formalizable(or poorly formalized) tasks. Arose in connection with the problems of programming, this understanding of expertise has acquired a system-wide character. It is the difficulty of formalizing a certain task that makes other methods of its study ineffective, except for expertise. As a way to describe the problem by formal means is found, the role of accurate measurements and calculations increases and, on the contrary, the effectiveness of expert assessments decreases.

So, expertise is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming an opinion (preparing a conclusion) of a specialist who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic nature of information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems and relying on "common sense".

A social project is subject to expertise throughout its development and implementation.

At the concept development stage, many indicators are set by experts to measure the effectiveness of the project. The viability assessment of a project relies heavily on expert judgment both in relation to the project and in relation to the social environment in which it is being implemented. Diagnostic and predictive research in the social field is impossible without the use of expert methods. When considering the prepared text of the project by the competition commissions, investors, state authorities and local governments, other organizations that make management decisions on the project, an examination is also carried out. The project is evaluated by experts within the framework of current control over its implementation. Finally, the completion of the project, the establishment of whether it was possible to implement it in accordance with the plan, also involves an examination.

When working with social projects, various types of expertise can be used insofar as the project involves construction, or activities that require licensing, or interference with the natural environment. This is how it works with all projects. But the peculiarity of social projects is that social expertise plays a leading role here - a special type of expert work.

The priority national projects implemented since 2006 are aimed at modernizing and improving the efficiency of social sectors, primarily healthcare and education. Much attention is paid to raising the standard of living of the population and improving the demographic situation.

Today, the purpose of social forecasting is to identify positive trends in problem areas of the social sphere and determine the range of actions to achieve these positive trends.

Forecasting, strategic planning and programming of social services that ensure the reproduction and improvement of the quality of human potential, covers four interrelated activities (social services):

• * public health and medical care of the population;
• * social security for various categories of the population requiring the care of society and state support;
• * education in all its forms;
• * culture, recreation and tourism.

The system of social forecasts and programs in the Russian Federation

In the Federal Law of July 20, 1995 N 115-FZ "On State Forecasting and Programs for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation". It highlights the stages of short-, medium- and long-term planning. Forecasts for the short, medium and long term are subject to publication.

The forecast of socio-economic development for the long term is developed once every five years for a ten-year period. The concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term specifies the options for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, determines the possible goals of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, ways and means to achieve these goals. The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development and the procedure for developing a concept for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. In order to ensure the continuity of the socio-economic policy of the state, the data of the forecast of socio-economic development and the concept of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term are used in the development of forecasts of socio-economic development and programs for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term.

The forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is developed for a period of three to five years and is adjusted annually. The procedure for developing a forecast of socio-economic development for the medium term is determined by the Government of the Russian Federation. The annual message of the President of the Russian Federation contains a section devoted to the forecast for the medium term, which formulates and justifies the strategic goals and priorities of the state's socio-economic policy, directions for the implementation of these goals, the most important tasks to be solved at the federal level, provides the most important target macroeconomic indicators that characterize the social -economic development of the Russian Federation. Based on the provisions contained in the President's annual address.

Forecasts of socio-economic development include quantitative indicators and qualitative characteristics of the development of the macroeconomic situation, economic structure, scientific and technological development, foreign economic activity, dynamics of production and consumption, level and quality of life, environmental situation, social structure, as well as education, healthcare and social provision of the population.

The program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term should reflect:

assessment of the results of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the previous period and a description of the state of the economy of the Russian Federation;

the concept of the program of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the medium term;

macroeconomic policy;

institutional transformations;

investment and structural policy;

agricultural policy;

environmental policy;

social politics;

regional economic policy;

foreign economic policy.

The function of developing forecasts is entrusted to the Government of the Russian Federation. Territorial programs are developed and approved by state authorities of the subjects of the Federation.

In addition to the Federal Law of July 20, 1995 No. 115-FZ "On State Forecasting and Programs for the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation", the basis for their development is the Federal Law of October 6, 1999 No. 184-FZ "On the General Principles of Organizing Legislative (Representative) and executive bodies of state power of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

INTRODUCTION

When developing forecasts, specialists often encounter difficulties associated with the lack of certainty in the terminology of this relatively new area of ​​scientific research.

The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions. Sometimes some of these concepts are used as synonyms, sometimes a different meaning is put into each of them. This situation greatly complicates the development of prognosis and gives rise to fruitless discussions on issues of terminology.

In 1975, the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences prepared a draft terminology for the general concepts of forecasting, as well as the object and apparatus of forecasting. The draft was circulated for wide discussion in organizations involved in the problems of forecasting, finalized taking into account the comments and published in 1978 in the 92nd edition of the collections of terms recommended for use in scientific and technical literature, information, educational process, standards and documentation. In this section, an attempt is made to bring into a system some of the terms (some of them are beyond the scope of the specified dictionary), which denote the initial concepts of prognostication and without which it is difficult to perceive the subsequent presentation (the dictionary is given in the Appendix).

Foresight and forecasting. It seems necessary to introduce a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future - foresight, which is divided into scientific and non-scientific (intuitive, everyday, religious, etc.). Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future. There are a lot of superstitions about this.

Sometimes the concept of foresight refers to information not only about the future, but also about the present, and even about the past. This happens when still unknown, unknown phenomena of the past and present are approached in order to obtain scientific knowledge about them as if they relate to the future. Examples include estimates of mineral deposits (presentist foresight), mental reconstruction of ancient sites using the tools of scientific foresight (reconstructive foresight), estimating hindsight from the present to the past or from less distant to more distant past (reverse foresight), estimating hindsight from past to present or from a more distant to a less distant past, in particular - for testing methods of foresight (simulation foresight).

Foresight affects two interrelated sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Prediction is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition - the subconscious. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​the simplest advanced reflection as a property of any organism. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Sometimes this concept is extended to the entire area of ​​complex advanced reflection, which is a property of the highest form of the movement of matter - thinking. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Preindication appears in the forms of goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and current management decisions. Goal-setting is the establishment of an ideally expected result of an activity. Planning is a projection into the future of human activity in order to achieve a predetermined goal with certain means, the transformation of information about the future into directives for purposeful activity. Programming in this series of concepts means establishing the main provisions, which are then deployed in planning, or the sequence of specific measures for the implementation of plans. Design is the creation of specific images of the future, specific details of the developed programs. Management as a whole, as it were, integrates the four listed concepts, since each of them is based on the same element - a decision. But decisions in the field of management do not necessarily have a planned, program, project character. Many of them (the so-called organizational, as well as actually managerial) are, as it were, the last step in the concretization of management.

These terms can also be defined as the processes of developing forecasts, goals, plans, programs, projects, and organizational decisions. From this point of view, a forecast is defined as a probabilistic scientifically based judgment about the prospects, possible states of a particular phenomenon in the future and (or) about alternative ways and timing of their implementation. The goal is a decision regarding the intended result of the activity being undertaken. Plan - a decision on a system of measures that provides for the order, sequence, timing and means of their implementation. A program is a decision regarding a set of measures necessary for the implementation of scientific, technical, social, socio-economic and other problems or some of their aspects. The program can be a pre-plan decision, as well as specify a certain aspect of the plan. A project is a decision regarding a specific activity, structure, etc., necessary for the implementation of one or another aspect of the program. Finally, the actual decision in this series of concepts is an ideally assumed action to achieve the goal.

Religious foresight has its own forms of concretization. So, “prediction” takes the form of “revelation”, divination (prophecy), fortune-telling, and “foretelling” takes the form of “predestination”, sorcery, spells, requests for prayer, etc. But all this (as well as forms of concretization of intuitive and everyday foresight ) is a special topic.

It is important to emphasize that prediction and prediction are closely related. Without taking this connection into account, it is impossible to understand the essence of forecasting, its actual relationship with management. The volitional principle can prevail in pre-instruction, and then the corresponding goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general turn out to be voluntaristic, subjectivistic, arbitrary (with an increased risk of non-optimality, failure). In this regard, it is desirable to predominate in them an objective, research principle, so that they are scientifically sound, with an increased level of expected effectiveness of decisions made.

The most important methods of scientific substantiation of predictions - description (analysis), explanation (diagnosis) and prediction (forecast) - constitute the three main functions of each scientific discipline. The forecast is not only a tool for such justification. However, its practical significance is reduced precisely to the possibility of increasing the efficiency of decisions made with its help. It is only because of this that forecasting has taken on unprecedented proportions in recent decades and has begun to play an important role in management processes.

Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is essential). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probabilistic approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or most desirable, optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts should precede plans, contain an assessment of the progress, consequences of the implementation (or failure to implement) plans, cover everything that cannot be planned, resolved. They can cover, in principle, any period of time. Forecast and plan differ in the way they handle information about the future. A probabilistic description of what is possible or desirable is a prediction. A directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for the plan to be effective, optimal, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, which allows scientifically substantiating this and subsequent plans.

TYPOLOGY OF FORECASTS

Typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead time, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, survey, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).

Search forecast- determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. This prediction answers the question: What is most likely to happen if current trends continue?

Normative forecast- definition of ways and terms of achievement of possible states of the phenomenon accepted as the purpose. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. This prediction answers the question: what are the ways to achieve what you want?

The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Normative forecasting is in some respects very similar to normative planning, programming, or project development. But the latter imply a directive establishment of measures for the implementation of certain norms, while the former is a stochastic (probabilistic) description of possible, alternative ways to achieve these norms.

Normative forecasting not only does not exclude normative developments in the field of management, but is also their prerequisite, helping to develop recommendations to increase the level of objectivity and, consequently, the effectiveness of decisions. This circumstance prompted to identify the specifics of forecasts serving, respectively, goal-setting, planning, programming, design, and directly the organization of management. As a result, according to the criterion of correlation with various forms of concretization of management, some experts distinguish a number of subtypes of forecasts (exploratory and normative).

Target Forecast actually desired states answers the question: what is desirable and why? In this case, on a certain scale (field, spectrum) the possibilities of a purely evaluative function are built, i.e. preference distribution functions: undesirable - less desirable - more desirable - most desirable - optimal (with a compromise on several criteria). Orientation - assistance in optimizing the goal-setting process.

Planned forecast(plan-forecast) of the progress (or non-fulfillment) of plans is essentially the development of search and regulatory forecast information for the selection of the most appropriate planning standards, tasks, directives with the identification of undesirable alternatives to be eliminated and with a thorough clarification of the direct and remote, indirect consequences of the adopted planned decisions. This prediction answers the question: how, in what direction should planning be oriented in order to more effectively achieve the set goals?

Program forecast possible ways, measures and conditions for achieving the expected desired state of the predicted phenomenon answers the question: What exactly is needed to achieve what you want? To answer this question, both search and normative predictive developments are important. The former identify the problems that need to be solved in order to implement the program, the latter determine the conditions for implementation. Program forecasting should formulate a hypothesis about the possible mutual influence of various factors, indicate the hypothetical timing and sequence of achieving intermediate goals on the way to the main one. Thus, as it were, the selection of possibilities for the development of the object of study, begun by planned forecasting, is completed.

Project forecast specific images of this or that phenomenon in the future, under the assumption of a number of conditions that are still missing, answers the question: how (specifically) is this possible, what might it look like? A combination of search and regulatory developments is also important here. Project forecasts (they are also called forecast projects, design forecasts, etc.) are designed to help select the best options for long-term design, on the basis of which real, current design should then be deployed.

Organizational forecast current decisions (in relation to the sphere of management) to achieve the intended desired state of the phenomenon, the set goals answers the question: in what direction should decisions be oriented in order to achieve the goal? Comparison of the results of search and regulatory developments should cover the entire range of organizational measures, thereby increasing the overall level of management.

According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-, medium-, long- and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts are distinguished. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of study are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium-term covers the prospect between the short and long-term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long-term (super-long-term) - the prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of nature and society.

Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.

The temporal gradation of forecasts is relative and depends on the nature and purpose of the given forecast. In some scientific and technical forecasts, the lead period, even in long-term forecasts, can be measured in days, and in geology or cosmology - in millions of years. In socio-economic forecasts, in accordance with national economic plans and in accordance with the nature and pace of development of the forecasted phenomena, the following time scale is empirically established: operational forecasts - up to one year, short-term - from one to five years, medium-term - for five to ten years, long-term - for a period of up to fifteen to twenty years, long-term - beyond long-term.

However, even here there are differences related to the characteristics of individual branches of socio-economic forecasting. Thus, in the sphere of politics, the range between the short and long term narrows to the limits of the next decade, in urban planning it stretches for a whole century (since most of the objects have already been designed for the coming decades and only operational forecasting is possible), in the economy it adapts to the ranges of national economic plans. etc.

According to the object of study, natural science, scientific-technical and social science (social in the broad sense of the term) forecasts are distinguished. In natural science forecasts, the relationship between prediction and prediction is insignificant, close or practically equal to zero due to the impossibility of controlling the object, so here, in principle, only exploratory forecasting is possible with an orientation towards the most accurate unconditional prediction of the future state of the phenomenon. In social science forecasts, this relationship is so significant that it can give the effect of self-fulfillment or, on the contrary, self-destruction of forecasts by people's actions based on goals, plans, programs, projects, decisions in general (including those made taking into account the forecasts made). In this regard, a combination of search and regulatory developments is necessary here, i.e. conditional predictions with a focus on improving management efficiency. Scientific and technical forecasts occupy, as it were, an intermediate position in this respect.

natural science predictions are divided into the following areas:

1) meteorological (weather, air currents and other atmospheric phenomena);

2) hydrological (sea waves, water runoff regime, floods, tsunamis, storms, freezing and opening of the water area, other hydrospheric phenomena);

3) geological (mineral deposits, earthquakes, avalanches and other lithospheric phenomena);

4) biological, including phenological and agricultural (productivity, morbidity and other phenomena in the flora and fauna, in general in the biosphere);

5) medical and biological (now mainly human diseases);

6) cosmological (the state and movement of celestial bodies, gases, radiation, all phenomena of the cosmossphere);

7) physical and chemical predictions of the phenomena of the microworld.

Scientific and technical forecasts in a narrow sense, or, as they are also called, engineering, cover the prospects for the state of materials and the mode of operation of mechanisms, machines, devices, electronic equipment, and all phenomena of the technosphere. In a broad sense - in the sense of the prospects for the development of scientific and technological progress - they cover the promising problems of the development of science, its structure, the comparative effectiveness of various areas of research, the further development of scientific personnel and institutions, as well as the promising problems of technology (the “man-machine” system), more precisely, the controlled aspects of scientific and technological progress in industry, construction, urban and agricultural, transport and communications, including the information system.

Social science forecasts divided into areas:

1) socio-medical (health care, including physical culture and sports);

2) socio-geographical (prospects for further development of the earth's surface, including the World Ocean);

3) socio-ecological (the prospect of maintaining a balance between the state of the natural environment and the life of society);

4) socio-space (the prospect of space exploration);

5) economic (prospects for the development of the national economy, economic relations in general);

6) sociological, or social in the narrow sense (perspective for the development of social relations);

7) psychological (personality, its behavior, activities);

8) demographic (growth, age and sex structure, population migration);

9) philological and ethnographic, or linguistic and ethnological (development of language, writing, personal names, national traditions, mores, customs);

10) architectural and urban planning (social aspects of settlement, development of the city and village, housing, generally inhabited environment);

11) educational and pedagogical (upbringing and training, development of personnel and institutions in the field of public education - from nurseries and kindergartens to universities and graduate schools, including subsystems for advanced training and retraining of personnel; adult self-education, parental education, additional education, etc.);

12) cultural and aesthetic (material and technical base of art, literature, all culture; artistic information, development of personnel and cultural institutions - book, magazine, newspaper business, radio and television, cinema and theater, museums and cultural parks, clubs and libraries, cultural monuments, etc.);

13) state-legal, or legal (development of the state and legislation, law and criminology, legal relations in general);

14) internal political (internal policy of one's own and another country);

15) foreign policy (foreign policy of one's own and another country, international relations in general);

16) military (military-technical, military-economic, military-political, military-strategic, military-tactical, military-organizational forecasts).

Often, scientific and technical forecasts are also called natural science forecasts, and social science forecasts are often called socio-economic forecasts, and all forecasts of this group, except economic ones, are in this case called social forecasts. Philosophical and theoretical-methodological problems of forecasting constitute a special area.

It should be noted that there is no blank wall between natural and social science predictions, since theoretically the relationship between prediction and prediction is never zero. A person begins to influence the weather (dispersion of fogs, hail clouds), productivity (production of fertilizers), etc. It is likely that in time he will learn to control the weather, regulate sea disturbances, prevent earthquakes, obtain predetermined crops, program the physiological and psychological development of man, change the orbits of celestial bodies, etc. Then the difference between these types of forecasts will gradually disappear altogether.

At the same time, it is not difficult to notice a well-known connection between forecasts of both types. This is natural, since the links between the natural, technical and social sciences are becoming ever closer. The typology of forecasts is not limited to the listed criteria and named orders for each type. In principle, there are much more criteria, and for each of them, subtypes of the third, fourth, etc. can be distinguished. order. However, the development of a "forecast type tree" is still awaiting special study.

Forecasting and forecasting. The listed subtypes of forecasts according to the criterion of the object of study represent a well-known abstraction. In practice, none of them exist in a "pure" form, since they are interconnected and form complex complexes. Usually, a forecast is developed within a certain grouping of forecasts, depending on the purpose of the study (target grouping of forecasts).

It would be difficult, for example, to give a forecast of the development of science or technology without having data from related industries (economy, demography, culture, etc.). In the same way, it is difficult to determine the prospects for the development of an economy or culture without knowing the prospects for the development of science, technology, population, urban planning, public education, and so on.

For each forecast, it is desirable to involve as much data as possible in related areas. Only a few of the most important for the purpose of the study are currently used. As experience shows, other things being equal, the degree of forecast reliability is always directly proportional to the degree of completeness of the material used in other industries, the degree of completeness of the target group.

The target group is composed of the leading (profile) and auxiliary (background) directions. In principle, in accordance with the purpose of the study, any direction can become a leader. In practice, among the target groupings, one of the most developed is singled out - national economic forecasting, where economic and social forecasting are leading, and scientific, technical and demographic forecasting are auxiliary (other areas still play an insignificant role).

The need to form target groupings of forecasts is dictated by the requirements of forecasting practice. Not a single scientific team is able to develop forecasts of sufficiently high reliability for all branches of forecasting. The target grouping helps to mobilize the forces of specialists in various fields of scientific knowledge and organize them in an optimal way to develop a forecast.

The leading direction of the target group forms the forecast profile, which is the subject of the study. Auxiliary directions make up the forecast background - a set of conditions external to the object of forecasting that are essential for solving the forecast problem. Unlike profile data, background data are usually not the subject of research by one research team (since this is practically impossible and impractical): they are either obtained ready-made by order from other, sufficiently competent scientific institutions, or they are drawn from the available scientific literature, or they are conditionally postulated. with appropriate reservations regarding the degree of their reliability. The standard forecast background is divided into scientific and technical, demographic, economic, sociological, sociocultural, organizational and political, international. Usually, several subdivisions are selected depending on the purpose and objectives of developing a forecast.

The difference between the forecasting industry and the target grouping of forecasts is fundamental. Ignoring it leads to fruitless disputes, for example, on the question of whether demographic or scientific and technical forecasting is an independent branch or only a sub-branch of economic forecasting, which is sometimes considered as a synonym for economic forecasting.

The set of target groupings of forecasts is a complex of forecasts in existing sciences, and not some new science that replaces existing ones, as this would lead to an artificial break in the study of trends and prospects for the development of natural and social phenomena studied by each science, to a break in the unity of integral basic functions each science - descriptions, explanations and predictions.

The scientific discipline about the patterns of development of forecasts - forecasting has as its subject the study of the laws and methods of forecasting. Its tasks are the development of relevant problems of epistemology and the logic of theoretical prognostic research, the scientific principles of the typology of forecasts, the classification of forecasting methods, the distinction between such interrelated concepts as hypothesis and forecast, forecast and law, analysis and forecast, forecast and plan, solution, etc. One of the most important tasks of forecasting is the development of special methodological problems of forecasting in order to increase the validity of forecasts.

In the structure of prognostics, private forecasting theories with “double subordination” should be developed: along the line of general prognostication and along the line of the corresponding scientific discipline within the framework of natural science or social science (scientific and technical, economic, sociological, political, etc. prognostication). True, prognostics is still at the initial stages of development, when it is somewhat premature to talk about the details of its “budding”. This is apparently a matter for the future. But in all cases, it is precisely the theory of forecasting that is meant and should be meant, and not the isolation of some part of the problems of existing scientific disciplines into a kind of “science about the future”.

This is important to emphasize, because over the past half century there has been no shortage of speculation on the specificity of the problem of forecasting. This is especially true for the ambiguous term "futurology", which currently has the following meanings:

1) "philosophy of the future", opposed to all social teachings of the past and present, which the German philosopher of the first half of the 20th century. K. Mannheim divided into "ideology" and "utopia" (the doctrines that respectively defended or rejected the dominant social system). The term "futurology" in this sense was proposed in 1943 by a German sociologist who emigrated to the United States - O. Flechtheim. This concept did not catch on;

2) "science of the future", "history of the future", the subject of which should be the prospects for the development of all phenomena - primarily social ones - in contrast to other disciplines limited to studies of the past and present. The term in this sense became widespread in the West in the early 60s in connection with the then unfolding "boom of forecasts" (the appearance of special institutions engaged in the development of forecasts of a scientific, technical and socio-economic nature). However, in the second half of the 60s, the failure of attempts to single out the “history of the future” by analogy with the “history of the past” was revealed, and by the beginning of the 70s, the term “futurology” in this sense had almost completely ceased to be used.

The analogy between the study of the past and the future turned out to be wrong. History studies past events of special historical interest with the help of special scientific tools that are different from the methods of studying observed phenomena. This makes it justified to single out the historical sciences as a separate group. Therefore, the appearance of the history of the theater, physics, agriculture, humanity as a whole is natural.

Meanwhile, the phenomena of the present and the future are of interrelated topical interest. The scientific toolkit for studying the phenomena of the future, although it has a certain specificity, is closely connected with the toolkit for studying the observed phenomena. We have already mentioned above the unity of description, explanation and prediction as the main functions of each science. So far, the predictive function in most scientific disciplines is less developed than the explanatory and descriptive. But this does not undermine the principle that the purpose of every science, if it is really a science, is to describe, explain, and predict.

That is why the "science of the future" is deprived of the subject of study, which actually belongs to many existing disciplines. The realization of this circumstance led to the discrediting of this meaning of the term "futurology";

3) a complex of social forecasting as a closely interconnected set of prognostic functions of the existing social sciences and prognostication as a science of the laws of forecasting. In this sense, futurology as "interdisciplinary research", "metascience" received significant distribution in the West by the end of the 60s. However, the uncertainty of the term and the frequent confusion of this meaning with the two previous ones caused, from the beginning of the 70s, its displacement by other terms (prognostics, futurist, futuristics, "study of the future", etc.). To date, the latter term as a synonym for the complex of social forecasting and social forecasting is dominant in the West;

4) a synonym for the complex of social forecasting - in contrast to forecasting. In this sense, the term is rarely used;

5) a synonym for prognostics - in contrast to the complex of social forecasting. In this sense, the term is also rarely used;

6) in the narrow sense, during the second half of the 20th century, the concepts of the future society, opposing scientific communism (such as the theory of "post-industrial society", etc.);

7) in a broad sense - all modern publications (both scientific and journalistic) about the prospects for the development of human society. True, more and more often, not only modern or only non-Marxist, but more often all "literature about the future" is meant.

In the Soviet Union, the term "futurology" in its 3rd meaning (synonymous with the complex of social forecasting and forecasting) was sometimes used in journalism or in popular science literature. In the specialized scientific literature, this term was usually used only in the 6th and 7th meanings, as a rule, with the epithet "bourgeois".

Forecasting toolkit. Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:

Assessment of development prospects, the future state of the predicted phenomenon based on experience, most often by analogy with fairly well-known similar phenomena and processes;

Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known;

A model of the future state of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desirable changes in a number of conditions, the development prospects of which are quite well known.

Accordingly, there are three complementary ways to develop forecasts:

Questioning (interviewing, survey) - a survey of the population, experts in order to streamline, objectify subjective assessments of a predictive nature. Peer review is especially important. Polls of the population in the practice of forecasting are still relatively rarely used;

Extrapolation and interpolation (detection of an intermediate value between two known moments of the process) - construction of time series of the development of indicators of the predicted phenomenon over the periods of the basis of the forecast in the past and anticipation of the forecast in the future (retrospection and prospection of forecast developments);

Modeling - the construction of search and normative models, taking into account the probable or desired change in the predicted phenomenon for the forecast lead period, based on the available direct or indirect data on the scale and direction of changes. The most efficient predictive model is a system of equations. However, all possible types of models in the broad sense of the term matter: scenarios, simulations, graphs, matrices, collections of indicators, graphic images, etc.

The above division of forecasting methods is conditional, because in practice, as already mentioned, these methods overlap and complement each other. A predictive estimate necessarily includes elements of extrapolation and modeling. The extrapolation process is impossible without elements of evaluation and modeling. Modeling involves preliminary estimation and extrapolation. This circumstance for a long time made it difficult to adequately classify forecasting methods. The development of the latter was also hampered by the lack of certainty of the concepts of reception, procedure, method, technique, method, system, forecasting methodology, which were often used one instead of the other or figured as phenomena of the same order, despite the significant qualitative difference between them. In recent years, significant work has been carried out in this regard, which has made it possible to create a reliable theoretical basis for the classification of forecasting methods. As a result, the given series of concepts lined up in the following logical system.

Reception of forecasting - a specific form of theoretical or practical approach to developing a forecast, one or more mathematical or logical operations aimed at obtaining a specific result in the process of developing a forecast. Procedure - a number of techniques that ensure the performance of a certain set of operations. Method - complex technique, an ordered set of simple techniques aimed at developing a forecast as a whole. Methodology - an ordered set of techniques, procedures, operations, research rules based on one or more often a specific combination of several methods. Methodology forecasting - a field of knowledge about methods, methods, systems of forecasting. Prediction method- obtaining and processing information about the future based on homogeneous methods for developing a forecast. Forecasting system("predictive system") - an ordered set of techniques, technical means, designed to predict complex phenomena or processes. Experience shows that none of the above methods (and even more so methods), taken by itself, can not provide a significant degree of reliability, accuracy, range of the forecast. But in certain combinations they are highly effective.

The general logical sequence of the most important operations for developing a forecast is reduced to the following main stages:

1. Pre-forecast orientation (research program). Refinement of the task for the forecast: nature, scale, object, periods of foundation and lead, etc. Formulation of goals and objectives, subject, problem and working hypotheses, determination of methods, structure and organization of the study.

2. Construction of the initial (basic) model of the predicted object by the methods of system analysis. To refine the model, a survey of the population and experts is possible.

3. Collection of forecast background data by the methods mentioned above.

4. Construction of time series of indicators - the basis of the core of future predictive models by extrapolation methods, it is possible to generalize this material in the form of predictive pre-model scenarios.

5. Building a series of hypothetical (preliminary) exploratory models of the predicted object using the methods of exploratory analysis of profile and background indicators with specification of the minimum, maximum and most probable values.

6. Construction of a series of hypothetical normative models of the predicted object using the methods of normative analysis with specification of the values ​​of the absolute (i.e., not limited by the forecast background) and relative (i.e., tied to this framework) optimum according to predetermined criteria in accordance with specified norms, ideals, goals.

7. Evaluation of the reliability and accuracy, as well as the validity (verification) of the forecast - the refinement of hypothetical models, usually by interviewing experts.

8. Development of recommendations for decisions in the field of management based on a comparison of search and regulatory models. To clarify the recommendations, another survey of the population and experts is possible. Sometimes (although still rarely), a series of post-probabilistic predictive scenario models are built, taking into account the possible consequences of the implementation of the developed recommendations for their further refinement.

9. Expert discussion (examination) of the forecast and recommendations, their revision taking into account the discussion and delivery to the customer.

10. Again, a pre-forecast orientation based on a comparison of the materials of an already developed forecast with new data on the forecast background and a new cycle of research, because forecasting should be as continuous as goal-setting, planning, programming, design, generally management, the increase in the efficiency of which it is intended to serve.

What has been said requires three essential additional remarks:

Firstly, the effectiveness of forecasts (especially social science ones) cannot be reduced only to the degree of their reliability, accuracy, range, although all this is very important; it is equally important to know to what extent this or that forecast helps to increase the validity, objectivity, and effectiveness of decisions developed on its basis;

Secondly, the verification of forecasts has significant features that distinguish it from the verification of analysis or diagnosis data. In forecasting, in addition to absolute verification, i.e. empirical confirmation or denial of the correctness of the hypothesis, there is a relative (preliminary) verification that allows you to develop scientific research and practically use its result before the possibility of absolute verification. Methods of relative verification are known: this is a check of the results obtained, but not yet amenable to absolute verification, by control studies.

With regard to the forecast, absolute verification is possible only after the transition of the lead period from the future to the past. But long before that, it is possible and should resort to repeated or parallel studies using a different methodology (for example, to conduct a survey of experts). If the results match, there are grounds for more confidence to consider the degree of reliability of the forecast as high; if not, there is time to find and eliminate errors or shortcomings in the methodology for developing forecasts.

In this regard, it is important to clearly distinguish between the categories of validity and truth (forecast). The validity of scientific information is, in short, the level of the state of knowledge and the quality of scientific research. If new scientific information is based on a solid scientific theory, the effectiveness of which has been proven in relation to similar objects of research, if this information is obtained as a result of sufficiently reliable methods, procedures, operations of scientific research (tested on other objects), then it is considered to be fully justified even before it is confirmed. practice.

The criterion of the truth of scientific information, as you know, is practice. However, practice cannot be understood only as a purely empirical experience of today. A broader understanding of practice includes, first of all, the socio-historical practice of the development of human society as a whole. Therefore, the problem of the truth of the forecast cannot be limited to the possibility of a "momentary" practical verification, it must be associated with real trends in the development of human society.

Ultimately, as it is clear from the above, any verification of the forecast is not an end in itself. If the forecast has an effect in terms of increasing the scientific level of management, it acts as a full-fledged result of scientific research long before the possibility of absolute verification. In this regard, modern science has enough proven examples in practice.

Improving the efficiency of decisions through the use of predictive information was achieved in the 60-70s, in fact, at the initial stage of the development of forecasting, when many methods had not yet been theoretically developed or practically insufficiently tested, when many methods were still actually experimental in nature. All this gives grounds for putting forward a completely scientific hypothesis that as forecasting develops and its methods improve, forecasting will have an even more effective impact on the level of goals, plans, programs, projects, organizational decisions than at present.

Thirdly, even a preliminary acquaintance with modern forecasting tools shows that the latter is by no means universal and omnipotent, that it is not able to replace the broader concept of foresight. The peculiarities of methods for developing a forecast impose fundamental restrictions on the possibilities of forecasting both in the time range (the lead time in socio-economic forecasts in practice is limited, as a rule, to the next few decades) and in the range of research objects (not all phenomena are amenable to predictive estimates). These limitations must be constantly taken into account when specifying tasks for the development of forecasts.

Social forecasting is a field of sociological research (prospects for social phenomena and processes) and, at the same time, part of an interdisciplinary complex of future studies. In the USSR, it developed in the second half of the 60s, when the "boom of forecasts" reached Moscow.

Then it was crushed in the late 60s and throughout the 70-80s. developed in two ways: official (as part of the "Comprehensive Program of Scientific and Technological Progress", which served as a scientific cover for voluntary planning) and unofficial (in one of the committees of the Union of Scientific and Engineering Societies). In 1989-1990 both branches entered a state of collapse. Since the beginning of the 90s. attempts are being made to revive this area of ​​social research within the framework of the Association for the Promotion of the World Federation for Future Studies.

In the scientific literature, there are several approaches to explaining the essence of forecasting. The point of view of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, who proceeds from the fact that the forecast does not provide for solving the problems of the future, has received the greatest distribution. Its task is different: to promote the scientific substantiation of plans and decisions. Forecasting presumably characterizes a possible set of necessary ways and means of implementing the planned program of action. In this regard, a number of authors believe that a forecast should mean a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty. Its difference from foresight lies in the fact that the latter is treated as an apodictic (improbable) statement about the future, based on absolute certainty, or (another approach) is a logically constructed model of a possible future with an as yet undetermined level of certainty. It is not difficult to see that the degree of reliability of statements about the future is used as a basis for distinguishing between terms.

There are other points of view. According to K. Schuster, the forecast has a specific character and is necessarily connected with the "calendar", i.e. with certain quantifications. In accordance with this, he classifies the expected number of crimes in the next calendar year as a forecast, and the early release of a prisoner under certain conditions as a prediction. A. Schmidt and D. Smith state that a forecast is usually understood as a quantitative prediction. Thus, a "line of demarcation" is drawn between qualitative (prediction) and quantitative (forecast) assessments of the future.

An interesting consideration expressed by D. Johnson. He believes that prediction is the prerogative of the physical sciences, since it requires the application of an "embracing law." Since the social disciplines have a weak basis for formulating laws of this type, they confine themselves to forecasts that reflect realistic or probable combinations of assumed orientations and initial conditions. Forecasts of social disciplines, in his opinion, act as "substitutes" for predictions of more exact sciences.

Some authors do not particularly find it difficult to define the essence of forecasting in the sense that they do not separate it from foresight and planning. There is a rational moment in these arguments, since social planning to a certain extent is also forecasting, but not vice versa.

A bad service in social prognostication was played by the fact that to some extent it began to be identified with the word "prophecy", which was assigned an unambiguous negative meaning. However, not to mention social prognostication, prophecy is not devoid of positive beginnings.

Elucidation of the essence of forecasting is inextricably linked, according to the just statement of V.A. Lisichkin, with the need to "develop a specifically prognostic system of concepts", including "the correct definition of the concept of" forecast "and distinguishing it from such concepts as foresight, prediction, plan, program , project, expectation, assumption, hypothesis".

In the works devoted to this issue or affecting it (meaning the works of I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada, A.V. Brushlinsky, A.M. Gendin, T.M. Rumyantseva, L.L. Rybakovsky, A.V. Ryabushina, etc.), many interesting thoughts were expressed about the specificity and correlation of the basic concepts of social prognostication. The complexity and difficulty of this task is due primarily to the fact that the question of delimiting categories in the analysis of problems of the future has not been the subject of special research until recently. Its solution is not limited to the circle of internal prognostic demands and involves terminological and semantic "docking" with other sciences that have passed a more or less long way of development. And here a very contradictory situation arises.

On the one hand, the conceptual apparatus of social prognostication, which studies the laws, principles and methods of forecasting, cannot simply be borrowed from specific sciences. It is distinguished by the universality of terms, i.e. the applicability of each of them with the "assigned" value to it in different branches of knowledge.

On the other hand, while improving the conceptual apparatus, social prognostics cannot ignore the traditions that have historically developed in line with various sciences, when they performed predictive functions. This includes both the features of the use of terms (for example, the preference given to one or the other), and their interpretation.

But one should not exaggerate the fact that outside of social forecasting, an undifferentiated approach to it continues to exist: it is important that forecasting itself and its developments constantly deepen the understanding of the problems of forecasting.

The introduction into circulation as synonyms of a number of terms that are simultaneously among the main categories of prognostication creates conditions (of course, after each category has its own meaning in prognostics) for their subsequent differentiation in all sciences, including sociology. .

This direction of further development seems to be the most probable. It is indisputable that in the presence of a dilemma generated by the action of two trends in the use of predictive terminology, the choice in sociology is determined depending on the tasks being solved. It is this approach that makes it possible to overcome the doubts expressed by individual scientists that "in sociological theories there are no foundations for forecasts for the future."

It is necessary to say more about such distinctive features of social forecasting. First, the goal statement here is relatively general and abstract: it allows for a high degree of probability. The purpose of forecasting is, based on the analysis of the state and behavior of the system in the past and the study of trends in the change of factors affecting the system under consideration, to correctly determine the quantitative and qualitative parameters of its development in the future, to reveal the content of the situation in which the system finds itself.

Secondly, social forecasting does not have a directive character. In other words, the qualitative difference between a variant forecast and a specific plan is that the forecast provides information to justify the decision and choose planning methods. It indicates the possibility of one or another development path in the future, and the plan expresses the decision on which of the possibilities the society will implement.

And, finally, social forecasting has specific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment. Let's dwell on this in more detail.

Social forecasting applies several methods. First of all, this is a method of expert assessments, designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the object of forecasting based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual opinions of experts. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend to a decisive extent on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps: selecting the composition of experts and assessing their competence; compiling questionnaires for interviewing experts; obtaining expert opinions; assessment of the consistency of expert opinions; assessment of the reliability of the results; drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

Solving such a difficult task as forecasting new directions, which is necessary to determine prospects and trends, requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is called "the method of the Delphic oracle", or "the method of Delphi". It provides for a complex procedure for obtaining and mathematical processing of answers. On its basis, scientists put forward forecasts for decades ahead regarding scientific, technological and social progress, military-political and some other problems. But to what extent are long-term (and even more super-long-term) forecasts compiled in this way and the very method of their formation reliable?

Forecasts obtained using the "Delphi method" are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the subjective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future.

In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, since it is based on the expert's extensive experience. Of course, in such cases, forecasts sometimes turn out to be erroneous, for which history knows many examples. Therefore, the intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results, especially when solving problems of great complexity, and social forecasting is increasingly faced with just such problems. The study of intuitive forecasts, writes, for example, the Austrian forecaster E. Janch, reveals that "they are rather disorderly fragments of systematic thinking, uncritical extrapolations of the current state of affairs and repetitions of other forecasts."

Usually, the "Delphi method" makes it possible to identify the prevailing opinion of the respondents on a selected range of problems. It is especially suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events, i.e. in relatively simple cases. But the use of the method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive, and even more so global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts.

Along with the positive aspects of the method of expert assessments, its disadvantages should also be noted: it is cumbersome, since it takes a lot of time for each cycle of obtaining answers from experts, which provide a fairly large amount of information. In addition, since the method is based on the intuition and subjective views of the respondents, the quality of the assessment directly depends on the qualifications of the experts.

The method of mathematical modeling (solution optimization) is associated with the search for various development options, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires the definition of an optimality criterion, which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread. In dynamic programming problems, a system is considered that can change its state over time, and this process can be controlled.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. However, there are also negative aspects in modeling, due to the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models when forecasting for a long period.

The extrapolation method is aimed at constructing dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past up to the date of forecasting. In this case, the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory - the entire arsenal of modern mathematics and cybernetics, which makes it possible to more accurately assess the scale of possible shifts in extrapolated trends, has a great effect.

Extrapolation is limited in social forecasting. This is due to a number of reasons. Some social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. Until a certain period, the process slowly increases, then a period of rapid development begins, which ends with a saturation stage. After that, the process stabilizes again. Failure to comply with this requirement leads to serious errors.

One of the ways to test the reliability of this method may be extrapolation of growth curves "to the point of absurdity." It shows that the current mechanism should change in the future, new trends in its development will emerge. In this case, the correct solution requires an integrated approach that combines logical analysis, expert assessments and standard calculations.

Thus, social forecasting is based on the study of the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as on modeling options for their future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

Foreign experience (in particular, the USA) shows that the forecasting of social systems occupies a leading position (53%) among other areas of research. In terms of time parameters, the ratio of studies in percentage is as follows: for 5 - 10 years - 52%; for 5 - 25 years - 64%; for 10 - 25 and more years - 26%.

The forecasting process itself involves: conducting a brief retrospective analysis of the predicted object; description of the current state of the object (comparative analysis of observed trends in domestic and foreign experience); problem identification:

already decided, but their implementation and implementation is just beginning;

those problems that have been solved, but have not found practical use;

assessments of experts in leading scientific research in the field.

The main conditions for the reliability of forecasts include:

a) depth and objectivity of the analysis;

b) knowledge of specific conditions;

c) efficiency, competence and speed in carrying out and processing materials.

Of particular importance in social forecasting is information, a database of statistical material.

In theoretical and methodological terms, it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions:

perception of social processes as an objective reality;

using a holistic, systematic approach to research; historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the causal-causal conditions of these processes.

When analyzing the level of forecasting activity, one should take into account many factors that affect the effectiveness of forecasts and their qualitative characteristics.

There are factors of a fundamental, methodological nature, a high degree of complexity. This is, first of all, the ability to take into account the specifics of the relationship of socio-economic and spiritual-ideological aspects in the development of models, forecasts and their results.

Some organizational deficiencies should be attributed to two groups of people: those who develop models and forecasts, and those who try to implement the results of research.

The insufficiently high professional level of forecasters and experts, their lack of information about the positions of potential customers, in whose interests certain models and forecasts are developed, lead to a number of undesirable moments, on the basis of which a number of conclusions can be drawn.

The first conclusion is the inconsistency in the prognostic reports of the volumes of descriptive and informational (up to 90%) materials with the procedural content. As a result, extremely important information about forecasting measures, the procedure for processing information, and the sources used is occupied by the smallest amount compared to retrospection.

The second conclusion is that often the predominant attention is paid to the research approach to the very process of developing forecasts and less attention is paid to the analysis of the prognostic background of the relationships of various factors, the so-called external environment, the use of higher-order forecasting systems.

INTRODUCTION

1.1. The concept of social forecasting

1.2. Methods of social forecasting

2.1. The concept of social foresight

2.2. Types of social foresight

3.1. The concept and forms of intuition

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

CONCLUSION

List of used literature

Introduction

Foresight, as one of the most important forms of anticipatory reflection of reality, was inherent in mankind at all stages of its existence, starting from the moment it appeared on the historical arena. However, it developed in forms that reflect prescientific experience and methods for predicting the future, and which still exist today in the form of clairvoyance, insight, divination, prophecy. It is these forms of foresight that are exploited by astrology, psychics, quackery and hysteria, based both on scientific data and on arbitrary conjectures.

Elements of the science of the future - futurology - were developed in the ancient world (for example, Thales predicted a solar eclipse in 585 BC). As knowledge was enriched, events or phenomena that would inevitably take place were predicted (and came true) more and more often.

The term futurology was proposed in 1943 by the German sociologist O. F-lechtheim as the name of a certain supra-class "philosophy of the future", which he contrasted with ideology and utopia. In the early 1960s, this term became widespread in the sense of "the history of the future", "the science of the future", designed to monopolize the predictive functions of existing scientific disciplines. Since the late 1960s, the term futurology, due to its ambiguity and uncertainty, has been supplanted by the term research into the future.

The purpose of this work is to study intuition and its role in social foresight.

The following tasks follow from the goal:

Expand the concept of social foresight;

Consider intuition and its role in social foresight;

Analyze the forms of intuition in social foresight.

The object of research is intuition. The subject of research is the role of intuition in social foresight.

Research methods include - analysis and generalization of the role of intuition in social foresight based on the study of information materials.

When writing the work, book publications were used, recommended by the Educational and Methodological Center as textbooks and teaching aids of 1997-2007 editions, which contain the main educational material. They reveal the most important theoretical and methodological issues of social forecasting and foresight, reveal the concept and meaning of intuition, as well as its role in social foresight.

CHAPTER 1. SOCIAL FORECASTING

1.1. The concept of social forecasting

Social forecasting is one of the main areas of specific social research, a special object of which is the prospects for the development of specific social processes. In a broad sense, it covers all processes associated with the life of human society (as opposed to natural, technical, biological processes of a spontaneous, “spontaneous” nature, for example, weather forecasts, crop yields, earthquakes, the course of a disease, etc.), and includes includes the prospects for the development of social aspects of science and technology, economics, social relations, demographic and ethnic processes, health and physical culture, public education, urban planning, literature and art, state and law, domestic and foreign policy of states, international relations, military affairs, further exploration of the Earth and space. Accordingly, there are scientific and technical, biomedical, socio-economic, military-political and geocosmic areas of social forecasting. In a narrow sense, the latter is usually identified with sociological forecasting - the study of the prospects for the development of social relations proper. Philosophical and methodological problems form a special direction: epistemology and the logic of scientific foresight, methodology and methodology for developing forecasts.

In modern conditions, the issues of scientific foresight in solving specific long-term problems of a scientific, technical, socio-economic, military-political nature are of particular importance.

The efficiency of forecasting social processes in economic terms is very significant. As early as 40 years ago, some American firms were able to double and triple the sales of their new products (and hence their profits) only by quickly taking into account the data contained in forecasts that were developed by their own research institutions or bought from “forecast traders” firms. Every dollar invested in developing forecasts turns into fifty dollars of net profit in a short time. At the same time, it was discovered that a well-established forecasting service can significantly reduce the time for developing various plans, programs, projects, decisions and, most importantly, can significantly increase their scientific level, and hence their effectiveness.

Among the distinctive features of social forecasting are:

The formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract (allowing a high degree of probability);

It does not have a directive character - the forecast provides information to justify decisions and choose planning methods.

Ospecific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment.

The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

The experience of past years and the scientific achievements of the present make it possible to carry out forecasting, i.e., scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of specific social processes with particular accuracy.

Research in the field of social forecasting is being developed in full measure. Already now, on their basis, it is possible to draw a number of conclusions about individual contours of the near future.

1.2. Methods of social forecasting

Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions. It is connected with the prediction of the directions of development of the phenomenon in the future, by transferring to it the idea of ​​how the phenomenon develops in the present.

Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future: extrapolation in the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present; modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions; predictive assessment of an expert.1

One of the first methods that became widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of establishment (prospect) of the forecast.1 With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions (taking into account time, conditions, etc.) d.). A great effect is the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory, etc.

With social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited, since social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity".

Expert methods are very widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and meetings in order to agree on opinions and develop informed decisions to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend to a decisive extent on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps:

Selection of the composition of experts and assessment of their competence;

Drawing up questionnaires for interviewing experts;

Obtaining expert opinions;

Evaluation of the consistency of expert opinions;

Assessment of the reliability of the results;

Drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

The solution of such a difficult task as forecasting new directions is necessary to determine the prospects, trends, and requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is the method of the Delphic oracle or the Delphi method. The forecasts obtained using this method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, as it is based on the expert's extensive experience. An intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results and most often the forecasts turn out to be erroneous. Basically, it is suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events. But the use of this method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts. Among the shortcomings of this method, the following are noted - the bulkiness and the need for highly qualified experts.

An important role in social forecasting is played by the Oedipus effect, i.e. the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, during which positive warnings and threats are realized or eliminated. The conclusions obtained in the process of this forecast contribute to the awareness and understanding of the prospects for this or that event and the need to develop measures to prevent this forecast from taking place.

Forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if they form a single chain of needs and interests of people both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of possible changes.

A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which involves obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study.1 This method assumes the complete absence of any preliminary judgment or discussion. It answers the following types of questions: what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; what is the sequence of events; how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? Particularly significant in this method is the requirement that no opportunity be missed without a preliminary exhaustive study.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on the real situation, the future state of the object of study, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the development background and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of goals.

Predictive graphs are also used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

The method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used in social forecasting, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires determining the optimality criterion , which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. The negative features of modeling are the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.

The process of social forecasting can be presented step by step as follows1:

1. choice of the object of social forecasting;

2. choice of research direction;

4. choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence that meets the requirement of scientific research;

5. actual predictive research;

6. processing of results, analysis of the information received in relation to the research problem;

7. determination of the reliability of the forecast.

Social forecasting is based on various methods for studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

CHAPTER 2. SOCIAL FORESIGHT

2.1. The concept of social foresight

In modern scientific literature, scientific foresight is usually divided into natural science (prospects for the development of nature as a whole or its individual phenomena) and social (prospects for the development of the individual and society).

Foresight in the scientific literature in most cases is interpreted in two senses:

a) as a prediction of certain events;

b) as preferable knowledge about events and phenomena that exist, but are not fixed in experience.

This is a contradiction when a phenomenon or event exists (or their existence is possible), but, not being reflected in experience, gives rise to pre - and unscientific forms of foresight based on the subconscious, on life observations and possible options for turning human destinies.

Special mention should be made of pseudo-foresight (prophecy, divination, "revelation", fortune-telling), when its bearers try to claim such forms of advanced knowledge that are unknown to science, but which are inherent in individual individuals due to their personal characteristics of consciousness and behavior. Thus, astrology seeks to interpret experience in a peculiar way, paying attention to the fixation of recurring events in physical space (when determining the location of the luminaries). But the signs of the Zodiac, the luminaries, multiplied by the diversity of human destinies, give so many options for the development of events that the coexistence of scientific and non-scientific explanations becomes not only possible, but also successfully competing.

Since ancient times, there have been words in every language that denote different shades of judgments about the future: prophecy, divination, divination, anticipation, foresight, prediction, etc. At different times, the meaning of each of these words had a different meaning, not always identical to the modern one. Some of them are synonyms (for example, prophecy and divination, anticipation and divination). But in most cases, each word indicates some kind of feature, has its own, specific meaning.

Thus, the word "foresight" usually denotes the most general, generic concept of judgments about the future, which includes all other varieties of such judgments. At the same time, with the help of this word, as a rule, they emphasize a certain objectivity, the validity of such judgments.

“Prediction” is, in general, of the same character, but indicates, so to speak, a higher degree of activity and at the same time concreteness of judgment, it represents, as it were, a logical conclusion from foresight: a person foresees that events will unfold in such and such a way. , and predicts that this and that should be expected.

"Prophecy" in the strict sense of the word is foresight with the help of some supernatural powers, for example, when a person announces that "God's revelation" has descended upon him. In view of the futility of this kind of “foresight”, this word has acquired an ironic connotation over time, emphasizing the pretentiousness, subjectivity, groundlessness or inconsistency of one or another prediction.

On the contrary, “anticipation” usually indicates the success, reliability of foresight, and, moreover, not with the help of some supernatural forces, but with the help of the intuition of the person himself, by a correct guess, random or somehow justified.

The discussions that have taken place in recent years on the question of whether another word in this series, namely "forecasting", has the right to exist, stemmed for the most part from the purest misunderstanding: forecasting was completely wrongly assigned the meaning of either foresight in general, or prediction and anticipation especially. Why, indeed, another synonym, when there are already a lot of them? But the fact of the matter is that “forecast” in the modern sense of the word is not just foresight, but a special kind of it, which differs significantly from all other types (especially divination and anticipation) by a high degree of validity, scientific thoroughness, objectivity. Forecasting is not just a statement about the future, but a systematic study of the prospects for the development of a particular phenomenon or process using the means of modern science.

Prediction is always built on the basis of scientific explanation, aims to explain the phenomenon in the future. Prediction is characterized by uncertainty, because it speaks of an event as a possible state, of the emergence of a new one.

believes that foresight in the broad sense of the word is the receipt of information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena, regardless of their spatial and temporal localization. A similar point of view (with minor variations) is shared by A. Bauer and V. Eichhorn and others.

It is important to emphasize that foresight in all its varieties is a reflection of the future, knowledge of future development processes.

forecasting means knowledge of the future, and prediction is interpreted as obtaining information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena.

And they believe that a prediction is a description with a given accuracy of the state of an object at a moment in time following the moment of prediction. A prediction turns into a prediction after the time for which it was made. In other words, according to the opinion of these authors, a forecast is actually retrospective knowledge about an object, so to speak, a former prediction.

More acceptable is the point of view of those who propose to use the concept of prediction to express the qualitative level of describing the future, the concept of forecast to denote the quantitative parameters of predicted phenomena, and the concept of foresight as a generic concept for the first two.

Finally, it should be said about the ambiguity of the concept of foresight. The term foresight is used to refer to both the process of predictive research and the resulting final knowledge about the future. In concepts expressing various modifications of foresight, these two aspects can be emphasized with the help of such terms as prediction and prediction, forecast and prediction.

2.2. Types of social foresight

In the futurological literature, it is generally accepted to subdivide foresight into the prediction of the future and the prediction of existing phenomena that already take place in the present, but are not yet known.

It also highlights the prediction of "existing but unknown" phenomena, which actually turns out to be a prediction of future discoveries of the existence of these phenomena or their properties. So Mendeleev, strictly speaking, did not predict the existence of certain properties of a number of chemical elements unknown at that time (it is impossible to predict what already exists), but put forward a hypothesis about their existence, on the basis of which he predicted the possibility of discovering elements possessing these properties in the future. This foresight was to a certain extent the substantiation of the hypothesis relating to the actual reality. In the same way, geologists, based on the study of the structural features of rock masses, the patterns of their formation, do not predict the areas of occurrence of certain minerals, but on the basis of their hypotheses about the location, they predict the possibility of discovering new deposits.

In characterizing foresight in the temporal plane as the comprehension of the future that has not yet arisen, the future that is becoming, one should single out some of its very peculiar varieties. One of these is hindsight, where predictive thinking moves from the more distant to the less distant, or from the past to the present. Here, obviously, it is legitimate to speak of foresight in the event that the subject of cognition conditionally puts himself in the situation that existed at the time of the forecast, and tries to recreate after the fact possible paths of further development in the past in accordance with the real possibilities that then existed, in accordance with those decisions and methods of action that could potentially be adopted and put into practice in those conditions. Of course, it would be a hopeless task to guess "what would happen if ..." in the sense of a detailed prediction of the possible social consequences of various decisions, actions, alternative development options in the past. However, such a retrospective foresight, reconstructing the earlier possible paths of history, is in principle possible and has a scientific, theoretical, as well as educational value.

Foresight, carried out from some point in the past to the present, the so-called post-forecast, can also be used to practically test the effectiveness of modern forecasting methods by comparing the results obtained with indicators of the actual course of development. Such approbation of the methods of predictive research on the material of development in the past and its results in the present makes it possible to increase the degree of probability and reliability of predicting the future.

It is legitimate to consider as a kind of foresight the transition from information about a more distant future to information about a less distant future, as well as from the future to the present. The latter takes place in normative forecasting. Here, predictive thinking, in contrast to the traditional search for forecasts, moves as if in the opposite direction - from the future to the present. The starting point in this case are the final points of the development of the social system - the satisfaction of certain social needs and the fulfillment of possible goals. From this final future state, the normative forecast consistently, step by step, "goes" to the present, fixing possible intermediate stages and at the same time determining the range of possible goals, methods of activity, the choice and implementation of which are necessary to achieve the predicted final result that meets the criteria set on the basis of social ideals. and regulations. Although in both cases mental operations are performed in the time interval in the direction opposite to the real development processes, we are talking about foresight, since the object of reflection is the prospects for the future course of events, future directions and results of activity.

There is scientific and non-scientific foresight. In addition, one should also distinguish between empirical prediction, which occupies, as it were, an intermediate position between scientific and non-scientific prediction.

Such foresight is unscientific, which is based on fantastic, unreal, artificially constructed relationships, often on visions, "revelations", i.e., such foresight, the only purpose of which is to manipulate human views and behavior, which has no factual basis. Dreaming, divination, astrology, and the like also belong to non-scientific foresight. This group also includes prophecies and social utopias, predictions of a utopian and religious nature.

Scientific is such a prediction, which is the result of a scientific theory obtained within the framework of this theory, based primarily on the foundation of a systematic scientific and theoretical analysis of the laws of social development and the conditions for their implementation.

Only foresight, based on an analysis of real conditions, can be as reliable as possible and most fully penetrate into the possible, probable and necessary trends of the future. But the hallmark of scientific foresight is not absolutely accurate and complete knowledge of the future. Such knowledge, as will be seen from what follows, is logically meaningless. Characteristic of scientific forecasting, first of all, is that it is based on the knowledge of objective laws and on an effective methodology; its results can be checked, corrected, refined and developed further; it is limited to predicting what can be predicted as necessary and probable due to its dialectical determinism, starting from the past and the present.

Empirical is called foresight, which is based on the everyday experience of people, on actual or imaginary interconnection and regularity, which, however, is not based on a scientific theoretical basis or an assessment of experience, on the study of the laws of ongoing processes. An example is the so-called folk omens. Usually these predictions are doubtful or uncertain. But this does not exclude the possibility that they can sometimes be justified, either by chance or by virtue of an unknown reflection of actual regular relationships.

For a long time, foresight of this kind played a significant role in human life, appearing in the form of worldly rules. It existed for quite a long time in the conditions of stable and closed dwarf farms with their production and social relations. The situation is different at the present time, which is characterized by a continuous change in the productive forces, a high degree of penetration of science into all aspects of the life of society.

It should be emphasized the fundamental incompatibility of utopia and scientific foresight, which always gives a dynamic picture in which all predictable circumstances are perceived as moments of one continuous process of development, and the latter can only be understood on the basis of real conditions, contradictions, driving forces and patterns.

Utopianism, like divination, gives a frozen, motionless image of the predicted circumstances. In addition, where real interconnections and processes operate in scientific foresight (from which a forecast arises), desires, assessments, moral requirements operate in utopia, presented as independent historical forces; they take the place of regular relationships and are perceived as the latter, so that in the end the utopia is a simple extrapolation of assessments and moral views or depicts subjective desires, assessments and demands as a future reality.

Chapter 3. THE CONCEPT OF INTUITION AND ITS ROLE IN SOCIAL FORESIGHT

3.1. The concept and forms of intuition

Intuition is a specific form of cognitive process. Through its various forms, the interaction of sensory and logical knowledge is carried out. The epistemological functions of intuition consist in a kind of combinatorics of available knowledge with data from cryptognoses and the subsequent transformation of the new knowledge obtained into the status of scientific. Thus, the action of intuition also extends to the level of scientific knowledge, or rather, its result - intuitive knowledge is an important component of the process of obtaining new scientific knowledge.

The epistemological analysis of the intuitive form of the cognitive process involves the elucidation of the relationship "between the knowledge available at the beginning of the intuitive act and the knowledge obtained as a result of this act, as well as the identification of the essence of the epistemological mechanism by which the transformation of the "old" (initial) knowledge into the new takes place" .

In accordance with the tasks set, the main content of the stated concept is that intuition appears in cognition as a process and as a result. The epistemological analysis of intuition as a process is reduced to the analysis of the action of its various forms in human cognitive activity. As a result, intuition appears in the form of "intuitive knowledge".

Most often, researchers refer to the classification proposed by Mario Bunge. The contradictory attitude to this classification that takes place in our literature prompts us to examine it in detail.

"When we do not know exactly which of the listed mechanisms played a role, when we do not remember the premises or are not clearly aware of the sequence of inference processes of inference, or if we have not been systematic and rigorous enough, we are inclined to say that all this was a matter of intuition. Intuition is a collection of rubbish where we dump all the intellectual mechanisms that we don’t know how to analyze them or even how to accurately name them, or those whose analysis and name do not interest us, ”writes Bunge. He considers the most commonly used meanings of the term intuition, such as quick perception, imagination, abbreviated reasoning, and sound judgment. Bunge distinguishes primarily sensual and intellectual intuitions.

Sensual intuition, according to Bunge, has the following forms:

1. Intuition as perception.

Intuition as perception is expressed in the process of rapid identification of an object, phenomenon or sign.

Clear understanding of meaning and relationship or sign.

Ability to interpret.

2. Intuition as imagination.

The faculty of representation or geometric intuition.

The ability to form metaphors: the ability to show the partial identity of features or functions, or the complete formal or structural identity of otherwise different objects.

Creative imagination.

Bunge classifies intellectual intuition (intuition as reason) as follows:

1. Intuition as reason.

Accelerated inference - a rapid transition from one statement to another, sometimes with a quick slip of individual links.

The ability to synthesize or generalized perception.

Common sense is a judgment based on ordinary knowledge and not based on special knowledge or methods, or limited to the passed stages of scientific knowledge.

2. Intuition as an assessment.

Sound judgment, phronesis (practical wisdom), insight or penetration: the ability to quickly and correctly assess the importance and significance of a problem, the plausibility of a theory, the applicability and reliability of a method, and the usefulness of an action.

Intellectual intuition as a normal way of thinking.

These, according to Bunge, are the main varieties of intuition. The author makes an attempt to systematize the most commonly used meanings of intuition among the endless hierarchy of interpretations of this concept. However, its systematization is not always consistent.

The main goal of Bunge's entire study is to reveal the enormous heuristic role of intuition as a necessary moment in the process of the scientist's cognitive activity. In this regard, his work is of known value. Thanks to this study, the main approaches to the study of the problem are outlined, providing a constructive attitude towards the latter. According to Bunge, this constructive approach includes:

Careful analysis of the numerous meanings of the term "intuition" and careful use of it.

Empirical and theoretical analysis of intuition within the framework of scientific psychology.

Refining the results of intuition through classifying, enriching and clarifying concept development8.

These three positions are really important in the development of the problem under study. But the classification of types of intuition proposed by Bunge does not fully meet these requirements.

The problem of classifying intuition is one of the most difficult points in the study of the problem as a whole. This is because the object itself, which is subjected to the operation of classification, is not subject to the action of the rules necessary, say, for a formal classification. Any formal classification presupposes, first of all, a clear, sharp separation of the objects of one group from the objects of another group. The result of such a classification should be the establishment of some order in the arrangement of these groups themselves, although in this case the established order is often artificial and arbitrary. Classification based on formal principles implies some kind of distribution into groups, which is based on the similarity of the objects of each group due to the presence of a common property. It is quite clear that intuition is not amenable to formal classification, since we can only talk about clarifying the concept and systematizing this field of knowledge in order to facilitate orientation in it. Establishing a clear similarity and difference between the varieties of intuition does not seem appropriate.

Intuitive knowledge is an important area of ​​human knowledge, belonging to the field of both scientific and non-scientific knowledge. In this section, we will be mainly interested in the operation of intuition as a process in scientific knowledge, so we will try to start by highlighting the specific characteristics of scientific intuition.

The most characteristic features of scientific intuition include:

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through sensory knowledge of the surrounding world.

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through direct logical inference.

Unaccountable confidence in the absolute truth of the result (this in no way removes the need for further logical processing and experimental verification).

Suddenness and unexpectedness of the result.

Immediate evidence of the result.

Unconsciousness of the mechanisms of the creative act, ways and methods that led the scientist from the initial formulation of the problem to the finished result.

Extraordinary lightness, incredible simplicity and speed of the path traveled from initial premises to discovery.

A pronounced feeling of self-satisfaction from the implementation of the process of intuition and deep satisfaction from the result.

So, everything that happens intuitively must be sudden, unexpected, directly obvious, unconsciously fast, unconsciously easy, outside of logic and contemplation, and at the same time strictly logical in itself and based on previous sensory experience.

The peculiarity of intuitive knowledge is that, in its epistemological essence, it is a transformative, combinatorial knowledge, the result of which is intuitive knowledge.

As a fact of knowledge, each kind of intuition is an indisputable reality that exists in the field of knowledge for all knowers. The human mind, preoccupied with comprehending questions related to cognitive activity, also tried to resolve the question of how knowledge generated by experience and possessing relative necessity and universality can follow knowledge that no longer has relative, but unconditional universality and necessity.

Intuitive cognition as direct differs from rational cognition based on the logical apparatus of definitions, syllogisms and proofs. The advantages of intuitive knowledge over rational knowledge can be represented as follows:

1) the ability to overcome the limitations of known approaches to solving a problem and go beyond the usual ideas approved by logic and common sense, to see the problem as a whole;

2) intuitive knowledge gives the cognizable object as a whole, immediately "all the infinite content of the object", allows "to grasp the greatest fullness of possibilities." At the same time, various aspects of an object are known on the basis of the whole and from the whole, while rational knowledge deals only with parts (sides) of the object and tries to put together a whole out of them, to build an infinite series of general concepts that are attached to each other, but due to the fact that that such a series is unrealizable, rational knowledge always remains incomplete;

3) intuitive knowledge has an absolute character, because it contemplates a thing in its essence, rational knowledge has a relative character, since it consists only of symbols;

4) intuition is given creative variability, the fluidity of reality, while in the general concepts of rational knowledge only immobile, general states of things are conceived;

5) intuitive knowledge is the highest manifestation of the unity of intellectual knowledge, because in the act of intuition, the mind simultaneously thinks and contemplates. Moreover, this is not only a sensory knowledge of the individual, but an intellectual contemplation of the universal and necessary connections of the subject. Therefore, as the rationalists of the 17th century believed, intuition is not just one of the types of intellectual knowledge, but its highest form, the most perfect.

Possessing all these advantages over rational knowledge, intuition, nevertheless, has vulnerabilities: it

1) the lack of manifestation of the reasons that led to the result obtained,

2) the absence of concepts that mediate the process of intuition, the absence of symbols, and

3) confirmation of the correctness of the result.

And although a direct understanding of the connections of an object or phenomenon may be sufficient to discern the truth, but not at all sufficient to convince others of this, proof is required for this. Every intuitive guess needs verification, and such verification is most often carried out by logically deducing the consequences from it and comparing them with the available facts.

Thanks to the basic mental functions (sensing, thinking, feeling and intuition), consciousness receives its orientation. The peculiarity of intuition is that it participates in perception in an unconscious way, in other words, its function is irrational. Differing from other perceptual functions, intuition may also have features similar to some of them, for example, sensation and intuition have much in common, and, in general, these are two perceptual functions that mutually compensate each other, like thinking and feeling.

Today, there are many disparate, unsystematic approaches to determining the form in which intuition manifests itself.

From the point of view of the subject of perception itself, these are subjective and objective forms - Subjective - this is the perception of unconscious mental data of subjective origin. Objective form is the subliminal perception of factual data emanating from the object, accompanied by subliminal thoughts and feelings.

The ability of a person to distinguish and identify objects of the surrounding world and their simple combinations is intuitive. The classic intuitive concept of objects is the idea of ​​the presence of things, properties and relationships. First of all, we mean objects that are sensually perceived either in the surrounding reality or in the reality of the inner world of images, emotions, desires, etc.

Thus, the simplest form of intuition, which plays an important role in the initial stages of the creative process, is sensory contemplation, or spatial intuition. With its help, the initial geometric concepts of figures and bodies are formed. The first simple judgments of arithmetic have the same sensory-practical and intuitive character. All elementary ratios of arithmetic, such as "5 + 7 = 12", are perceived as absolutely reliable.

Conclusions are also taken as immediate evidence, something unconditionally given. Logical analysis takes into account, but never rejects, this kind of statement. This type of intuition in mathematics is called "objective" or "praxeological".

A somewhat peculiar kind of intuition is the transfer of features that have a common meaning for a certain class of objects to new objects of this class. In mathematics, it is called "empirical" intuition. Logically, empirical intuition is a hidden conclusion by analogy, and it has no more certainty than analogy in general. The conclusions obtained in this way are tested by logical analysis, on the basis of which they can be rejected.

Confidence in the results of sensory intuition was undermined after a large number of concepts and theories arose in mathematics that contradicted everyday sensory intuition. The discovery of continuous curves that have no derivatives at any point, the emergence of new, non-Euclidean geometries, the results of which at first seemed not only contrary to ordinary common sense, but also unimaginable from the point of view of intuition based on Euclidean ideas, the concept of actual infinity, conceivable according to analogies with finite sets, etc. - all this gave rise to a deep distrust of sensual intuition in mathematics.

At present, it is generally accepted that in scientific creativity the decisive role belongs to intellectual intuition, which, however, is not opposed to the analytical, logical development of new ideas, but goes hand in hand with it.

Intellectual intuition does not rely at all on sensations and perceptions, even in their idealized form.

In mathematical reasoning, primarily in elementary discursive transitions, i.e., in conclusions “from the definition”, as well as in conclusions on logical schemes of transitivity, contraposition, etc., without an explicit formulation of these schemes, there is a so-called “logical” intuition . Logical intuition (certainty) also refers to stable unrealizable elements of mathematical reasoning.

Based on the division of situations of intuitive clarity, two main types of intuition are distinguished: apodictic, the results of which are not subject to revision from the point of view of logic, and assertoric, which has a heuristic value and is subject to logical analysis.

One of the most productive forms of intellectual intuition is creative imagination, with the help of which new concepts are created and new hypotheses are formed. An intuitive hypothesis does not logically follow from the facts, it relies mainly on creative imagination.

In other words, intuition in mathematical creativity acts not only as a holistic, unifying idea, to a certain extent completing the cycle of research, but also as a conjecture that needs further development and verification using deductive, evidential methods of reasoning.

Concrete intuition is the perception of the factual side of things, abstract intuition is the perception of ideal connections.

The conceptual one forms new concepts on the basis of previously existing visual images, and the eidetic one builds new visual images on the basis of previously existing concepts.

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

The role of intuition in scientific and, in particular, mathematical knowledge has not yet been sufficiently developed. It is known that the intuitive components of cognition can be found in representatives of many professions and in various life situations. Thus, in jurisprudence, a judge is expected not only to know the "letter" of the law, but also its "spirit". He must pass sentence not only according to a predetermined amount of evidence, but also according to "internal conviction".

In philology, one cannot do without the development of a “linguistic sense”. Having cast a cursory glance at the patient, the doctor can sometimes make an accurate diagnosis, but at the same time he has difficulty explaining which symptoms he was guided by, he is not even able to realize them, and so on.

As for mathematics, here intuition helps to comprehend the relationship between the whole and parts, before any logical reasoning. Logic plays a decisive role in the analysis of the finished proof, in dividing it into separate elements and groups of such elements. The synthesis of parts into a single whole, and even individual elements into larger groups or blocks, is achieved with the help of intuition.

Attempts at machine modeling of human activity turn out to be secondary in relation to intuitive human activity, based on the synthesis of parts and the whole.

Consequently, the understanding of mathematical reasoning and proof is not limited to logical analysis, but is always supplemented by synthesis, and such synthesis, based on intellectual intuition, is by no means less significant than analysis.

The intuitive hypothesis does not follow logically from the facts, it is mainly based on the creative imagination. In addition, intuition is "the ability to see the target from afar."

The ideas of intuitionism are so widespread that they are appealed to when analyzing the views of prominent philosophers. According to Husserl's phenomenological description, the idea of ​​succession - central to the concept of number - is an essential feature of the process of intuition.

In history, it was not uncommon for situations when the intellect was unable to penetrate into the essence of a process or phenomenon, and intuition came to the rescue as the “highest revelation”, as an unconscious penetration (comprehension) of the future with the help of instinct and other components of the subconscious.

The theory of intuitionism proceeded from the fact that intuition is irrational, that it is necessary to focus not so much on the mind, thinking, but on "seeing sympathy."

Further study of intuition showed that it can manifest itself, firstly, in a form based on feelings. This is quite typical for interpersonal communication both in the family and at work, when the smallest details in the relationships of people gradually form a general impression of the actions and behavior of other people, on the basis of which expectations of future events and possible changes are built.

Secondly, intuition in social foresight is based on rational thinking (“intellectual intuition”). Therefore, insight does not come just like that, but as a meaningful reality in a special way, knowledge of a huge amount of information, as, for example, it happened with the discovery of the periodic system of elements.

At the same time, it is necessary to know the limitations that accompany intuition as a method of cognition, as a form of social foresight. Intuition can acquire the strength of prejudice, delusion, if, being effective in relation to one social process, it will be unquestioningly transferred to other social processes and phenomena.

Intuition can turn into projecting if it does not rely on a significant information base. In this case, it becomes akin to charlatanism, which operates with random, little interconnected information, relies on conjecture and arbitrary interpretation of events that have come to hand.

In this regard, it is important to understand the role and significance of innate ideas, which are given to thinking initially, are not acquired from experience and cannot be changed on the basis of empirical knowledge. Usually this:

1) ready-made ideas or concepts that people operate as true;

2) ideas embedded in thinking as potential abilities and inclinations.

The main thing is that these possibilities should be realized, seen and supported, and also used in deciding the future of this or that social process or phenomenon.

It is the use of intuition (based on a large amount of disparate data) that allows us to assert that in the 21st century social confrontations will shift from interracial, interethnic contradictions towards religious confrontation (and even religious wars) between the largest confessions of the world. As for the sociology of management, there is no doubt that intuition is used by almost every leader (consciously or spontaneously), including when solving not only operational, but also long-term problems of the development of his organization. And the more the leader knows the virtues and limitations of intuition, the more successfully he will apply it in social foresight.

Conclusion

Foresight is concretized in two forms: in the predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) form related to the category of foresight itself, and in the conjugated with it, related to the category of control - pre-indicative. Prediction implies a description of possible prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Prediction is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society.

Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition, subconsciousness. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is important). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probable approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts must precede plans, contain a pre-evaluation of the consequences of fulfilling (or not fulfilling) plans, and cover everything that cannot be planned. Forecast and plan differ in the ways of operating information about the future: a probable description is a forecast, a directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for a plan to be effective, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, allowing scientific substantiation of this and subsequent plans.

The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions.

Methods of social foresight are still in search, in the process of creative development and testing by time, which, undoubtedly, gradually enriches the arsenal of this stage of social management.

List of used literature

1. Berger in sociology. humanistic perspective. M., 1996.

2. Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. – M.: Thought, 1968.

3. Bestuzhev-Lada substantiation of social innovations / -Lada. - M.: Nauka, 19s.

4. Bondarenko of social forecasting: (Tutorial-methodical manual) / ; Far East. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 19s.

5. Krapivensky knowledge / // Krapivensky philosophy. - M., 1996. - S. 293-351.

6. Kurbatov design: Proc. allowance for universities / , . - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 20s.

7. Modeling of social processes: Proc. allowance. - M .: Publishing house Ros. economy acad., 19s.

8. Forecasting and planning in the market: Proc. allowance / Ed. , . - M.: UNITI-Dana, 20s.

9. Romanenko and economic forecasting: Lecture notes / . - St. Petersburg: Publishing house, 2000. - 62 p. - (Higher professional education).

10. Sorokin trends of our time / ; Per. from English. and foreword. . - M.: Institute of sociology. RAS, 19s.

11.Stegniy and methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991.

12.Tikhomirov socio-economic forecasting /,. - M.: VZPI Publishing House: Rosvuznauka, 19s.

13. Toshchenko: General course /. - 2nd ed., add. and reworked. – M.: Yurayt-Izdat, 2004. – 527 p.

15. Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicality / . - M., 19s. - (New in forecasting: theory, methods, experience).

Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. p.

Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. - P.10.

1 Social work: Proc. - Rostov n / D, 2003. - S. 269.

1 Toshchenko: general course. - M., 2004. - S. 438.

1 Toshchenko: general course. - M., 2004. - S. 441 ..

1 Technologies of social work: Proc. - 2002. - S. 108.

Bestuzhev - Lada in the future. - M.: Thought, 1968. -S. 13 .

Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - S. 78

Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - S. 67.

Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. -p.70.

Stegniy and the methodology of social forecasting. Lecture course. Perm: PGTU, 1991. - P.74.

Berger in sociology. humanistic perspective. M., 1996. - P.78.

Bondarenko of social forecasting: (Tutorial-methodical manual) / ; Far East. acad. state services. - Khabarovsk, 1998. - P.14.

Yakovets of the future: the paradigm of cyclicity / . - M., 1992. - P.45.