More and more migrants and refugees from Africa, Asia and the Middle East continue to arrive in Europe. This flow will go down in history as the most massive migration of people in the era of globalization.

As one person remarked:History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes". The current migration process is unique in its own way, but at the same time it has features that were inherent in the large-scale migrations of the past.

The flight from poverty and wars in the hope of a better life brings alien peoples to indigenous peoples, and in this clash, as always, many things are born: the shock of the invasion, the joy of finding a new home, relief after a long journey, a hidden hatred for foreigners and their customs, intensification of conflicts and a whole gamut of other human emotions, as well as long-term political and socio-economic consequences and changes.

Great Migration

"I would rather say that these are bipedal animals, not people, or stone pillars, roughly hewn in the form of a person, which are displayed on bridges. This disgusting appearance corresponds to their habits, characteristic of cattle: they eat food unboiled and unseasoned; instead of ordinary food supplies, they are content with wild roots and the meat of the first animal they come across, which they put under their seat on a horse and so soften.

They live roaming among the forests and mountains, hardened from cold and hunger. They wear clothes like a tunic of linen or fur, and once they put their head through it, they do not let it off their shoulders until it falls off in tatters. They cover their heads with fur-lined hats and wrap their hairy legs in goatskin.

All of them, without a roof, without a fatherland, without any habit of a settled way of life, wander in space, as if everyone is running further, carrying their carts behind them, where their wives work clothes for them, give birth and raise their children ... "

Attila and his hordes invade Italy. Eugene Delacroix

This is how the ancient Roman historian Ammianus Marcellinus (who, by the way, was a Syrian Greek by origin) described the Huns in his work "Acts" (Res Gestae, also known as "History" or "Roman History"), commenting on the invasion of barbarian tribes into Europe in the middle of IV century AD e.

Experts are still arguing about the reasons for the mass migration of nomads. Some talk about "global climate change": severe droughts have led to the depletion of lands controlled by nomadic tribes. Population growth also played a role. As a result, the barbarians began to increasingly visit the inhabitants of the European part of the Roman Empire.

The expansion of the living space of the Huns, Goths, Vandals and other tribes and their penetration deep into Europe stretched for several centuries. The aggravation of cultural, linguistic and religious conflicts between the Germanic tribes and the settled population ultimately led to the collapse of Rome and the destruction of the empire.

Newcomers arriving in Europe today do not wear goatskins or fur tunics. In many ways, however, their invasion of modern Europe looks as overwhelming as the barbarian invasion looked to the citizens of the Roman Empire 15 centuries ago.

What drives people from different parts of Africa and Eurasia today? In this crisis, it is quite difficult to distinguish between refugees and migrants. Many have indeed lost everything they had in the bloody chaos of the wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and other conflicts. Others flocked to the countries of the Old World in search of new opportunities, fleeing poverty in their native lands.

Intercontinental migrations

In search of new opportunities, many migrants of the past made even longer journeys than those who flee today to Europe. The European and African ancestors of today's Americans, Canadians, and residents of South America followed the discoverers of new continents, from the Old World to the New.

At the same time, according to many estimates, the number of imported slaves from Africa until the beginning of the XIX century. outnumbered free people. A number of historians note that in the period 1492-1776. of the 6.5 million immigrants who crossed the Atlantic and settled in the Western Hemisphere, only 1 million were Europeans. The remaining 5.5 million were slaves brought by force from Africa.

During the nineteenth century the scale of intercontinental migration is on the rise, due to relative overpopulation in some countries and labor shortages in others. In addition to the main migration destinations - the United States, Canada, as well as a number of countries in South America - following the exiled prisoners, in search of a better life, people went to Australia and New Zealand.

At the same time, as during the Great Migration of Peoples in the IV-VII centuries. in Europe, conquistadors and adventurers of all stripes and the waves of migrants that followed them crushed the old order of life in those parts of the world where they came to plunder and equip their new world.

A new beginning and expansion of living space for Old World colonists and their slaves was an apocalypse for the indigenous peoples of the Americas. Many tribes and peoples were completely exterminated, their cultures and value systems were wiped off the face of the Earth.

The genocide of the natives of Australia and Tasmania by the British colonists also went down in history and was described by a number of contemporaries, in particular Charles Darwin, as well as military historian and correspondent Alan Moorhead.

Intercontinental migration to the countries of North and South America reached its maximum at the beginning of the 20th century. In 1900–1914 about 20 million people left Europe, about 3/5 of this number settled in the United States. The subsequent world wars had a serious impact on the fate and lives of many people and migration flows.

Immediately after the First World War, the intensity of intercontinental migration dropped sharply. A number of countries, in particular the United States and Australia, introduced restrictive measures for migrants at the legislative level, and after a surge in the early 1920s. in the future, the number of overseas migrants again began to decline.

First and Second World Wars

The First World War led to mass movements of the peoples of Europe. People were forced to flee from the war zones both to other regions of their countries and to neutral countries. However, a much more serious factor was the conclusion of peace treaties and the establishment of new state borders following the war. National minority groups were forced to leave their former places of residence, often there were also forced deportations. In particular, over 500 thousand Germans were resettled from the territory that had ceded from Germany to Poland, more than 200 thousand Hungarians were forced to leave the territory of Czechoslovakia. Groups of the German-Austrian population moved to Austria from areas that used to belong to Austria-Hungary.

The Second World War further accelerated the movement of population groups of one nationality from one country to another. Before the start of the war, more than 12 million Germans lived in the countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, on the territory of Hungary, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.

Those who did not return to Germany along with the retreating German troops were resettled in Germany in the years after World War II by the decisions of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. Many countries of Eastern Europe also exchanged national minorities - again due to changes in the borders of states following the war.

At the same time, the Second World War led to a new intensification of intercontinental migrations. In particular, during the repatriation of the Japanese from the regions of China, Korea, and other regions of Asia, about 6.3 million people were resettled in Japan.

Great Depression in the USA

An example of a large-scale flight from poverty was migration within the United States during the Great Depression and a series of dust storms in the 1930s.

By some estimates, more than 1 million Americans impoverished by the economic and environmental crises have traveled across the continent in search of work.

The confrontation with the reality of poverty and hopelessness, as well as the contempt with which the desperate migrants in the western states were met, was described by John Steinbeck in The Grapes of Wrath:

"And in the eyes of people, a feeling of powerlessness and despair, in the eyes of the hungry, anger is ripening. In the souls of people, clusters of anger are pouring and ripening - heavy clusters, and now they do not ripen for long.".

Some rural counties in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have shrunk by more than 25%. At the same time, in a number of districts of the western states (California, Nevada), the population has almost doubled. The population of Los Angeles County grew by over 500,000, the largest increase of any county in any US state between 1930 and 1940.

From all over the world to Israel

The very emergence of Israel as a separate state after a large amount of time since quite ancient times, the resettlement of Jews around the world and the persecution they have undergone in various countries - this issue is likely to be the subject of all sorts of disputes and conspiracy theories for a very long time.

One way or another, the migration of Jews in the course of a series of so-called "aliyahs" to the territory of the future state of Israel and their repatriation after the official creation of the country in 1948 became the acquisition of a home (perhaps the most long-awaited in history) for some and a disaster for others. According to a number of estimates, after the partition of Palestine in 1947, more than 700,000 Palestinian Arabs were forced to flee the territories occupied by Israel.

Since the founding of the state, Israel, surrounded by Arab countries, has been fighting for existence and capturing more and more new territories. The ongoing demolition of Palestinian settlements in territories seized after the Six-Day War in 1967 is just one example of what one ethnic group has found a home for others.

Resettlement 2.0: reshaping Europe

What conclusions can be drawn from these and many other similar migration processes?

First, migrants flee to Europe not only from the countries of the Middle East or specifically from Syria, as a number of politicians are trying to present.

Migrants from African countries, as well as Central Asia (in particular, Afghanistan) also represent a fairly significant proportion of those eager to get into the EU.

Data: EU External Border Security Agency, graphics: BBC

Secondly, the migration crisis did not begin this year at all. The flow of migrants, which was measured in tens of thousands in 2012, has grown many times in a few years. The belated reaction of the authorities indicates their low ability to analyze further migration trends.

Thirdly, the statements of the Prime Ministers of Britain and France David Cameron and Manuel Valls about the need to "remove Assad by military force" - in 2015, after since 2011 the authorities of these countries have actually done nothing to destroy the Islamists tearing apart Syria and Iraq speak of their inability to understand the cause-and-effect relationships in the current crisis.

After the "humanitarian" bombing of Libya during NATO's "Operation Unified Protector" and the ensuing virtual political and economic collapse of Libya, the flow of migrants to Europe only intensified. Will it become smaller after the complete destruction of the remnants of statehood in Syria?..

In addition, the statements of the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, that another 160 thousand migrants planned for resettlement in the EU countries represent "only 0.11% of the European population" also call into question the ability of the EU authorities to deal with the current crisis.

Data: United Nations Refugee Agency, graphics: BBC

If Brussels could predict the social stability of society by calculating the growing share of migrants in Europe, then, quite possibly, the European commissioners could notice a certain connection between the ethnic riots that occurred in Sweden in 2014 and the increase in incoming migrants.

Europe is on the verge of a new round of exacerbation of social tension. At the same time, most likely, the growth of nationalist sentiment is inevitable, which will strengthen the positions of parties that openly criticize the continuation of European integration and the loss of national sovereignty and control of individual countries over their borders.

Questions are already open about what will become of the Schengen agreements on free movement within the EU. But what will happen to the very future image of Europe? Will the future face of the average European become a little more Syrian-Iraqi? Or will the Mali-Somali traits stand out more strongly? ..

There is a certain non-zero and growing risk that while interest rates are being calculated in Brussels and quotas for resettling migrants are being distributed, not everyone will want to wear masks of tolerance.

Individual law-abiding citizens of Europe may decide in the future to cease being such and, without waiting for the moment when Messrs. Cameron, Waltz, Juncker and others deign to "find a solution", they themselves will begin to "solve problems" - and by exactly the same methods that the European authorities offer for Syria and other countries.

The era of the migration of peoples represents another period of searching for land. The end of the Middle Ages and almost all new centuries are devoted, at least in Europe, mainly to the creation of people's states and laws suitable for economic and industrial development.

Having touched on the past migration of peoples, which has so changed the picture of the whole world, with the exception, perhaps, only of China, I cannot help but dwell for a moment on the present and future situation of this subject, because its significance, without a doubt, is higher than many other things that are considered very important.

Of course, the resettlement of peoples is the fault of Stalin and his political entourage. At the same time, it should be recognized that there were renegades among the deported peoples. So, in 1943, dozens of armed groups, hundreds of fascist accomplices, thousands of deserters were neutralized (N. F. Bugai. For what peoples were resettled.

In the USSR, the forced migration of peoples to the east. 13 thousand Germans arrived in Bashkortostan in 1941-42.

Strangely wedged into the panorama of the migration of peoples, the story of Slavic literacy continues. And his chronicle leads from the time when the Slavs lived already baptized.

There is no doubt that the Germans, right up to the migration of peoples, were organized into clans. They seem to have occupied the territory between the Danube, the Rhinenot, the Vistula and the northern seas only a few centuries before our era; The resettlement of the Cimbri and Teutons was then still in full swing, and the Suebi settled firmly only in the time of Caesar. Of the latter, Caesar definitely says that they were settled by clans and kindred groups (gentibus cognationibusque) 141, and in the mouth of the Roman from gens Julia this word gen-tibus has a quite definite and indisputable meaning.

There is no doubt that the Germans, right up to the migration of peoples, were organized into clans. They apparently occupied the territory between the Danube, the Rhine, the Vistula and the northern seas only a few centuries before our death; The resettlement of the Cimbri and Teutons was then still in full swing, and the Suebi settled firmly only in the time of Caesar.

News of Byzantine historians, explaining the Russian history of ancient times and the migration of peoples.

This ancient so-called tribal nobility, for the most part, perished during the migration of peoples, or shortly after it. Warlords were chosen regardless of origin, solely on the basis of ability. Their power was not great, and they had to influence by their example; Tacitus definitely attributes the actual disciplinary power in the army to the priests.

Interregional migration is also characterized by forced migration from Chechnya (200,000 people), resettlement of repressed peoples, and ethnic migration (mainly Russians) from the national republics of the Russian Federation.

The Federal Migration Service was established in June 1992. Its main tasks are: the formation of the migration policy of the Russian Federation; forecasting of migration processes; protecting the rights of migrants; development of migration programs; organization of external labor migration and migration control; providing information to migrants (through state authorities and local self-government bodies) about settlements recommended for permanent residence, about employment opportunities in them; finalization and adjustment of the long-term program Migration, aimed at solving the problems of refugees, internally displaced persons, resettlement of repressed peoples, migrants from third countries; the conclusion of annual agreements with the former Soviet republics on quotas for entry into the Russian Federation, on the rights of national minorities, principles for determining citizenship, and property rights of migrants. In its activities, the Federal Migration Service is guided by the laws of the Russian Federation on refugees and forced migrants.

They are home to about 1 billion people and harvest almost a third of the harvest of many agricultural crops. Forced migrations of peoples deep into the continents are fraught with military conflicts and social upheavals.

Forced migration is associated with tragic, in most cases, military events. In these cases, there is a mass resettlement of the people. The settlers are forced to leave their once inhabited places and become refugees. The problem of forced migration leads to acute, difficult to resolve socio-economic and political conflicts. The reasons for this kind of migration are the events in Chechnya, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and other places.

During the Middle Ages, the foundations of Western European civilization were laid, which, as most researchers believe, is the fruit of the synthesis of ancient and barbarian societies. They began to actively interact during the so-called great migration of peoples in the 4th-6th centuries.

Our civilization knows many facts of the great migration of peoples. The first millennium was the time of the great migration of the peoples of Europe and Asia. Subsequently, it will be called the "Great Migration of Nations" or "ethnic revolution." As a result of large-scale movements of people, the boundaries of settlements changed, entire states disappeared, ethnic components mixed up, new nationalities were formed. Historians believe that this migration of people became the basis of the ethno-political situation of the modern world.

Researchers are sure that the reason for the majority of mass movements of people is leaving impoverished and unfavorable regions in order to find lands that are attractive for living. One of the main reasons for the mass exodus of people from inhabited territories in 535-536 was the climatic cooling. In this regard, the population from cold regions rushed to areas with a warmer and milder climate.

Subsequently, numerous migrations of peoples were associated with the Arab conquests, expeditions of the Normans, Mongol campaigns and the creation of the Ottoman Empire. Among the large-scale migrations, one can rightfully include the mass emigration of the population from the European continent to the USA, Australia and Canada in the 19th and 20th centuries. As well as the resettlement of Jews in Palestine in the 20th century. In the modern world, migration flows go from poor or war-torn countries to rich ones with comfortable living conditions.

Man, as a rational being, has achieved power on Earth, but it is not unlimited. Society cannot control floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, unable to prevent drought, volcanic eruptions ... The result of these natural disasters: death of people, destruction of housing, water sources, rendering fertile land unusable. The consequence of these disasters is the migration of people from the affected areas. But, since the indigenous population of the regions where the flow of refugees is sent is not always happy to accept them, it is possible that uninvited migrants will come not with a request for help, but with. Mankind is too wasteful and thoughtlessly spends natural resources. It is quite likely that a fierce struggle for the mastery of territories rich in natural resources may begin. And these are not only natural resources, oil and gas - a war can start due to a lack of drinking water or food for the attackers.

If we analyze the conflicts taking place in the world, we can conclude that in the future the world will face a fierce struggle for the possession of hydrocarbon raw materials with the use of armed violence. Research by British petroleum says that there are enough proven sources of oil to supply the planet, but the demand for them in the last five years has significantly exceeded the level of the 90s. Humanity currently consumes about 85 million barrels of oil daily. IEA experts believe that by 2030 oil consumption per day will be 113 million barrels. The total oil reserves are estimated at 15 trillion. barrels. The acuteness of the oil problem is created by the fact that the sources of production have an uneven geographical distribution.

No less tense situation was created in the natural gas market. For the European Union and developing China, uninterrupted supplies of blue fuel are vital. The people of these countries demand that their leaders take steps to ensure the guaranteed supply of this natural fuel in the required volumes and at a favorable price for citizens and corporations.

But the most acute problem facing mankind in the future will be the lack of drinking water - in 2030, half of the world's population will lack it.

The bioresources of the Earth are depleted: soil, forests, water. They do not have time to reproduce naturally. Disagreements in the field of ecology can lead to violent actions of some subjects against others in order to reduce the risks of man-made disasters.

From the above, it is clear that military conflicts and mass migration of the population are possible in the future due to changes in climatic conditions in certain regions of the planet.

Let's remember the earthquake in Haiti in 2010: more than 200 thousand people died, 3 million people lost their homes. Currently, the number of migrants from the territory of Haiti is annually 6% of the total population of the country.

By order of the Pentagon, futurologists have prepared a report on possible conflicts in the future due to natural disasters.

Here is some data from this report:

2015 will bring Europe clashes over food, energy and drinking water. Only Russian help can save the Europeans from energy shortages.

In 2018, perhaps, China will undertake a military operation against Kazakhstan in order to take control of the oil and gas pipelines passing through the territory of this Central Asian country.

The year 2020 will bring another problem to Europe - an increase in the flow of migrants, in connection with which the already existing shortage of drinking water will be exceeded. Note that back in 2006, the World Water Council noted that 41 million Europeans lack water for drinking, and 80 million Europeans have neither sewerage nor drainage systems.

2022 - A conflict between France and Germany is likely over the Rhine River. The Rhine is not only the largest river in Europe, but also a natural border between Liechtenstein and Switzerland, Germany and France, Austria and Switzerland. These countries are now faced with the difficult task of keeping the Rhine waters from pollution, since this river is their main source of drinking water. The fate of millions of Europeans depends on whether the parties reach an agreement.

In 2025-2030, the collapse of the European Union is possible, which will lead to the migration of Europeans to the southern Mediterranean. The resettlement rate could reach 10% of the European population. The large-scale transition of the peoples of Northern Europe to the south will be facilitated by climate change - it will become much more severe. Migrants from Turkey, Tunisia and Libya will also rush to the south of Europe. It is difficult now to imagine how the situation in the European south will develop in this case.

By 2030, relations between Japan and China may worsen due to raw material sources.

As for the United States, this country is threatened by the flow of migrants from the Caribbean islands, and starting from 2015, Europeans will immigrate en masse to America.

It is assumed that in connection with a significant increase in oil prices by 2020, a number of serious conflicts will arise between the leading world powers. And sooner or later, it is in the Persian Gulf that a conflict will occur between the United States and China in the struggle for oil sources.

The governments of China, Pakistan and India will do their best to hold on to power. And to do this, they can plunge their peoples into a large-scale military conflict. Crowds of hungry people will seek refuge in other countries of the world.

It is believed that the grain-producing regions of the world will be able to maintain a stable position in the event of a global climate catastrophe - these are Argentina, Russia and the United States.

Some countries will unite in front of the possibility of an external threat: Mexico, Canada and the United States will create a single state. The main task of which will be the fight against uncontrolled migration from Europe and Asia.

The unification of Korea will benefit both states: the entire Korean population will have access to the latest technologies that Seoul previously possessed. A unified Korea will become a nuclear power.

In Africa, in the future, constant military conflicts are possible, so the resettlement of Europeans or Asians there is unlikely to happen.

The report of American scientists states that Russia, having become part of a united Europe by 2030, will become a supplier of energy resources, food and fresh water for Europeans.

UN specialists also prepared a report on possible migration processes and regional conflicts in the future.

According to their forecasts, Africa will face the spread of AIDS, a water crisis and an avalanche-like migration of the population to Europe. By 2025, there will be an armed conflict between the states located on the banks of the Nile.

The mass migration of the peoples of many countries to the south of Europe can provoke a revolt against black foreigners. The Europeans will be forced not only to finance the famine-stricken countries, but also to create camps for refugees.

The current increase in droughts in Latin America will lead, in the future, to an agricultural crisis. For example, last year in Brazil, a drought that swept its northeastern regions caused a difficult food situation in more than 1,000 cities in the country. Fights over water have become more frequent in rural areas. The water crisis has led to the bankruptcy of many farms. More than half of the livestock has been lost. There has already been a reduction in the harvest of legumes, soybeans and grains. UN experts believe that in the future the ecological balance of the Amazon may be completely upset and Latin America will face an increase in the struggle for the possession of fertile lands.

The Asian region will not have problems with drinking water, but this part of the planet is threatened, in the future, by powerful cyclones and rising water levels.

Pakistan's rivers may dry up. This will lead to tension throughout the region. And, it is possible that a war will begin between India and Pakistan. The fact that the opponents of this confrontation have nuclear weapons will further aggravate the situation around the world.

China will face the most difficult situation: the south of the country will suffer from heavy rainfall, and the northern regions will turn into a desert due to severe drought. The Chinese coast will be devastated by typhoons. Thousands of refugees will be sent to the south of the country, fleeing the climate catastrophe. The government of the Celestial Empire will try to deal with the chaos with the help of the army, perhaps using weapons.

The United States will try to block the flow of migrants from its southern border into its territory. In the border towns, due to the crowding of people, the crime rate will increase. Thus, according to the information available today, the majority of illegal migrants ended up in the United States by crossing the border with Mexico: 90% of them are of Mexican origin.

According to a forecast report by UN experts, American cities can be destroyed by the strongest hurricanes. If the American oil-producing infrastructure is destroyed, the US will be forced to use its strategic reserve, which will significantly weaken the country.

We must pay tribute to the leadership of the United States: they took the information about possible climate catastrophes in the world very seriously. The Pentagon has already developed a military training program to help the affected regions. New “desert” food rations have been introduced for the soldiers, the necessary uniforms have been prepared and new types of weapons have been created.

Russia has also changed its priorities in terms of types of weapons, significantly reducing the purchase of traditional weapons, began to build frigates and landing ships. Consequently, the Russian military plans in the future to switch to a “gunboat policy” towards a potential adversary. The reduction of the country's population and the decline in the power of the armed forces do not add optimism to the understanding of the future of the Russian state. The optimal strategy for Russia is to strengthen the state's armed forces while simultaneously solving the demographic problem of increasing the country's indigenous population.

Materials used:
http://x-files.org.ua/articles.php?article_id=2901
http://forum.artofwar.net.ru/viewtopic.php?t=110
http://janaberestova.narod.ru/wel.html
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C2%E5%EB%E8%EA%EE%E5_%EF%E5%F0%E5%F1%E5%EB%E5%ED%E8%E5_%ED %E0%F0%EE%E4%EE%E2

THE GREAT MIGRATION OF PEOPLES, the designation of mass migrations in Europe at the end of the 4th-7th centuries, which was one of the main reasons for the fall of the Western Roman Empire (see Ancient Rome) and the basis for the formation of a modern ethno-cultural map of Europe, is accepted in historical science. The term "Great Migration of Nations" (French les Grandes invasions, German Völkerwanderung) entered scientific circulation in the 1st half of the 19th century, primarily thanks to French and German researchers who were searching for the historical roots of their nations. Since then, various scientific schools of historians, archaeologists, linguists, ethnologists and scientists of other specialties have been studying the Great Migration of Nations. But many problems associated with the study of the phenomenon of the Great Migration of Nations remain debatable.

Among the reasons for the Great Migration of Peoples are usually attributed socio-economic and socio-psychological changes in the Eurasian barbarian world, which was no longer able to meet the needs of a growing population and a distinguished elite, affected by the influence of civilization and striving for rapid enrichment due to robbery. Also important are the processes that took place within the Roman Empire and made it more and more vulnerable to the barbarians. Specific explanations for the causes of the Great Migration of Nations are also offered, such as the impact on the socio-ethnic sphere of climate change, cycles of solar activity or outbursts of passionarity.

One of the most controversial is the problem of the space-time continuum of the Great Migration of Nations. The main tradition was laid down in the works of Western European historians of the 19th century, who studied the circumstances of the collapse of Rome, the origins of modern European peoples and states. Many of them considered the year 375 to be the starting point of the Great Migration; Around this time, the Huns defeated the Ostrogoths (Ostrogoths), causing the migration of the Visigoths (Visigoths) and other barbarians who flooded the provinces of the Roman Empire. They attributed the completion of the Great Migration of Nations to the middle of the 6th century, when the formation of the Frankish state was completed. Later, some historians began to include the migration of Slavs and Turks in the Great Migration of Peoples, which ended by the end of the 7th century with the formation of the Khazar Khaganate and the First Bulgarian Kingdom. In modern historiography, there is a tendency to expand chronological boundaries both in the depths of centuries and in later times. Some researchers attribute the beginning of the Great Migration to the 2nd half of the 2nd century (see Marcomannic wars, Velbar culture, Alemanni, Goths). Some historiographic schools consider the end of the Great Migration of Nations to be the resettlement of the Hungarians in the Carpathian Basin at the end of the 10th century and the last period of the Viking era. Attempts have also been made to consider the Great Migration of Peoples in a global context, including, in addition to Europe, Central Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, North Africa and the Middle East and covering a huge time period from the 3rd millennium BC to the 1st millennium AD .

According to the composition of the most important participants and the nature of their actions, the direction of migrations (see maps) and their results in the Great Migration of Peoples, several periods can be distinguished: “prologue” (2nd half of the 2nd - middle of the 3rd century), “Hunno-East Germanic” (late 4th - the middle of the 5th century), "Ostgothic-West Germanic" (2nd half of the 5th - 1st third of the 6th century) and "Slavic Turkic" (6th-7th centuries). In turn, within these periods, there are stages associated with key events in European history of the 1st millennium AD.

The "prologue" of the Great Migration of Peoples, which is not included by all historians in the Great Migration itself, was the Marcomannic wars, when the Germans (Marcomanni, Quadi, Lombards, etc.), representatives of the Sarmatian and other tribes invaded the territory of Pannonia, Rezia, Noric and other Roman provinces. The barbarians were rebuffed, but they received the right to settle on the land of the Roman Empire along its borders. These wars provoked migratory waves of tribal unions of the Alemanni and Franks, who lived between the Rhine and the Elbe. In the middle of the 3rd century, tribal unions of Borans, Costoboks, Goths, Gepids allied with them and other tribes moved to the Balkan and Asia Minor provinces. Rome had to cede to the barbarians a small part of its lands (Dacia and some others), but on the whole it managed to stop the threat with the help of military force and skillful diplomacy.

The existing system of the Roman Empire - the barbarian world - for decades was in a situation of mobile balance, from which it was brought out by a powerful external factor. Around 375, the Huns appeared in the Northern Black Sea region from the east. They defeated the Goths led by Ermanaric, which prompted some other Gothic and related groups to move to the territory of the Roman Empire, which granted the newcomers the rights of federates (see also Untersiebenbrunn). Soon a conflict broke out between the Romans and the Visigoths, which ended with the defeat of the army of Rome and the death of Emperor Valens in the battle of Adrianople on 9.8.378.

At the end of the 4th - beginning of the 5th century, the tribes of Sarmatians, Saxons, Burgundians, Vandals, Sueves, Gepids, etc. came into motion. In 404-406, their hordes, led by Radagaisus, invaded Italy, but were defeated by Stilicho. In 406, the Vandals, Alans and Suebi, breaking the resistance of the Frankish federates, broke into Gaul, but by 409 they were driven out to Spain, where they captured most of the country. A huge moral shock for the ancient world was the capture (24.8.410) and sack of Rome by the Visigoths of Alaric I. After a series of agreements and clashes in 416, the Visigoths again became federates and received the southwestern part of modern France for settlement.

In the 420-450s, the barbarians of Eastern and Central Europe consolidated under the rule of the Huns. The formation of their power from the Volga to the Danube was completed under Bled and Attila. However, the onslaught of the Huns and their allies to the west was stopped by Aetius in the "battle of the peoples" on the Catalaunian fields in 451. After the campaign in Italy (452) and the death of Attila (453), the Huns and their allies were defeated by the tribal groups that rebelled against them in the “battle of the tribes” on the Nedao River; their empire collapsed. After the battle on the Nedao River and a number of other clashes, the Gepids, who led the uprising against the Huns, founded a kingdom in Potissia (see Apahida), the Ostrogoths began to control Pannonia, the Rugs - Coastal Noric, the Heruli - lands in modern South Moravia and Western Slovakia. Groups with a significant East Germanic component in the 2nd half of the 5th century are known in the Eastern Carpathian region, Upper Potissia, Central Poland, and the lower reaches of the Vistula (vidivaria).

During the 1st half of the 5th century, new migration waves reached the Atlantic. In Britain abandoned by the Roman troops (end of the 4th - beginning of the 5th century), which was attacked by the Picts and Scots, around the 420s Saxons appeared (see Anglo-Saxons). From the middle of the 5th century, new waves of Angles, Saxons, Jutes, and Frisians began to arrive here. Seeking salvation from this invasion, part of the Britons moved to Brittany (in 441 and others).

In 422, having defeated the Romans, the Vandals and Alans captured the coastal cities and fleet in Spain, which allowed them in 429 under the leadership of Gaiseric (428-477) to cross to North-West Africa. Under the treaty of 442, the kingdom of the Vandals and Alans becomes the first legally recognized independent state on the territory of the Roman Empire.

In the 2nd half of the 5th century, the weakening of Rome and the expansion of the Germanic tribes reach their climax. In 455, the Vandals terminated the treaty with the Western Roman Empire and sacked Rome again. The Western Roman Empire (actually Italy), relying on squads of barbarians, was actually ruled in 456-472 by Ricimer (half Sev and Visigoth), from 474 by Orestes (former secretary of Attila), from 476 by skir Odoacer, who deposed the last Western Roman emperor Romulus Augustulus.

In 489, the Ostrogoths and other factions, led by Theodoric the Great, invaded Italy and by 493 captured it. Founded by Theodoric the Great, the Ostrogothic kingdom for several decades turned into the most powerful force in Western and Central Europe. Thus, at the end of the 5th - the middle of the 6th century, the transition from the stage of resettlement of the Germanic tribes to the stage of their establishment in new lands and the formation of "barbarian kingdoms" was completed. As a result, on the territory of the former Western Roman Empire, the state of the Burgundians in South-East Gaul (see Burgundy, Arelat), the Toledo kingdom of the Visigoths - in Spain (see the Visigothic kingdom), the Ostrogoths, and then the Lombards - in Italy (see the Lombard kingdom), the Franks in Gaul. "Barbarian kingdoms" also formed in Britain after its conquest in the middle of the 5th century by the Anglo-Saxons (see Anglo-Saxon conquest). A new ethnopolitical map of Western Europe is taking shape.

However, the idea of ​​restoring the Roman Empire was also preserved, which the emperor of the Eastern Roman Empire Justinian I tried to implement. Having conquered the state of the Vandals in Africa by 534, the Byzantine troops began a war with the Ostrogoths, who were broken in 552. By 555, Constantinople had achieved complete control of Italy and Dalmatia. The year before, the Byzantines had landed in Spain, beginning the capture of its southeastern part, where they held out until 626.

In the 6th century, a new wave of migration of the peoples of Central and Eastern Europe gained momentum. By the end of the 5th century, the Lombards mastered the upper reaches of the Elbe, in 526/527 they occupied the lands from Vienna to Aquinas, from 546 - the territory of modern southwestern Hungary. In 558, the Avars appeared in the steppes of South-Eastern Europe. In 568, having defeated the Gepids in alliance with the Lombards and after the latter left for Italy (a new kingdom of the Lombards with a center in Pavia formed in its northern and central parts), they became masters of the entire Middle Danube region, establishing the Avar Khaganate here. In the steppes of Eastern Europe, after the Avars, the Turks appear, who until 630 included the lands east of the Don in the Turkic Khaganate.

The process of the Great Migration of Peoples was completed by the migration of Slavic and Turkic tribes, including to part of the territory of the Eastern Roman Empire. Already in the 5th century, the Slavs proper (Slavs according to Latin and Greek sources) mastered the territory from the Dnieper to the Oder and from Polissya to the Eastern Carpathian region (see Prague culture). Groups close to them (see Zaozerye) from the Upper Dnieper region settled to the territory of modern southeastern Estonia, the Pskov region and the Upper Volga (long mounds of culture). Other groups of Slavs occupied the basin of the Desna and the Seim (Kolochinskaya culture), and also spread through the Ukrainian forest-steppe to modern central Moldavia (Antes). Until the middle of the 6th century, the Slavs advanced beyond the Oder (then gradually mastering the lands to the Elbe) and in Pomerania (see Sukov - Dziedzitsy), to the northeast of the Carpathian basin (probably by agreement with the Lombards), the Lower Danube (see Ipotesti - Kyndeshti - Churel ). Since the 520s, raids of the Sklavians and Antes on the Balkans have been known. Especially massive were the campaigns of the Sklavinian groups in 540-542, 548-551, in the late 570s - 580s. Together with them or separately, raids on the Balkans were also carried out by Eastern European nomads, among whom Western Turkic groups dominated from the 5th century (see Proto-Bulgarians). Not later than the 580s, groups of Slavs already lived in Thessaly, by the 1st third of the 7th century - in the Western Balkans, in the Southern and Eastern Alps (see Serbs, Croats, Slovenes, etc.). The counter-offensive of the Byzantines against the Slavs and Avars, which began after the conclusion of peace with the Persians (591), ended with the uprising of Phocas (602) and the fall of the border of the Eastern Roman Empire on the Danube.

In the 7th century, the Slavs settled throughout the Balkan Peninsula up to the Peloponnese, forming tribal principalities - "Sclavinia", some groups moved to Asia Minor, raided as far as Crete and Southern Italy. Although the huge forces of Byzantium were taken away by the opposition to the Arab conquests, already from the 2nd half of the 7th century, the restoration of the power of Constantinople in the south of the Balkans began.

From the middle of the 7th century, new early political formations appeared in the steppes of Eastern Europe (see Great Bulgaria, Pereshchepinsky treasure, Voznesenka). The result of the expansion of the Khazars in the 660-680s was the departure of part of the Bulgars to the Balkans, where the First Bulgarian Kingdom was formed and the Khazar Khaganate was formed in the south of Eastern Europe.

With the completion of the Great Migration of Peoples, migration processes in Europe, Asia, North Africa, the Near and Middle East did not stop, but their role in world history was already different.

The Great Migration of Nations had enormous historical consequences. The civilization associated with the Roman Empire experienced tremendous upheaval and destruction. From now on, the main carrier of ancient traditions was the Eastern Roman Empire, in which they underwent a profound transformation (see Byzantium). In place of the Western Roman Empire, absorbing elements of its culture, new political formations arose - "barbarian kingdoms", which were destined to become the prototype of the European states of the Middle Ages and Modern times. The ethnolinguistic map of Europe began to be largely determined by the Germanic and Slavic peoples. The habitats and the ratio of the Turkic, Finno-Ugric, Iranian, Celtic and other peoples of Eurasia have changed significantly. European civilization parted with the era of antiquity in order to enter the era of the Middle Ages.

Lit.: Diesner H. J. Die Völkerwanderung. Lpz., 1976; Die Germanen. V., 1976. Bd 2; Goffart W. Barbarians and Romans. Princeton, 1980; Korsunsky A.R., Günther R. The decline and death of the Western Roman Empire and the emergence of the German kingdoms (until the middle of the 6th century). M., 1984; Wolfram H. Das Reich und die Germanen: zwischen Antike und Mittelalter. V., 1990; Bona I. Das Hunnenreich. bdpst; Stuttg., 1991; Collection of the oldest written news about the Slavs. M., 1991-1995. T. 1-2; Zasetskaya I.P. The culture of the nomads of the southern Russian steppes in the Hun era (the end of the 4th-5th centuries). SPb., 1994; Machatschke R. Volkerwanderung. Von der Antike zum Mittelalter. Die Wandlung des Römischen Reichs und das Werden Europas. W., 1994; Martin J. Spätantike und Völkerwanderung. Munich, 1995; Maczyriska M. Wçdrôwki ludow. Warsz.; Krakow, 1996; Shuvalov P. V. The penetration of the Slavs into the Balkans // Fundamentals of Balkan linguistics, languages ​​of the Balkan region. SPb., 1998. Part 2; Budanova V.P., Gorsky A.A., Ermolova I.E. The Great Migration of Peoples. Ethnopolitical and social aspects. M., 1999; L'occident romain et l'Europe centrale au début de l'époque des Grandes Migrations. Brno, 1999; Budanova V.P. The barbarian world of the era of the Great Migration of Peoples. M., 2000; Gavritukhin I. O. The beginning of the great Slavic settlement to the south and west // Apxeological studies. Kiev; Chernivtsi, 2000.T. one; Tyszkiewicz L. A. Hunowie w Europie. Wroclaw, 2004; Sedov V.V. Slavs. Ancient Russian people. M., 2005; Shchukin M. B. The Gothic Way. SPb., 2005.

Many development projects that use natural resources, especially large infrastructure projects, involve moving people away from their traditional livelihoods. Large dams are no doubt unique among such projects in that they lead to extensive impacts on ecosystems by blocking the flow of rivers. The result is land and freshwater impacts that not only affect ecosystems and biodiversity, but also have severe impacts on people living near and far from the dam.

Large dams have significantly changed many of the world's river basins. This has led to dire consequences for the way of life of tens of millions of people inhabiting these regions. The impact of dams on people and their livelihoods, both upstream and downstream of their sites, has been particularly devastating in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

The term resettlement in this text refers to both the physical displacement and involuntary displacement of people due to the loss or change of their livelihoods. It is caused not only by the flooding of the territory, but also by the construction of a dam, as well as a change in the infrastructure associated with it. The information base of the Commission shows that too often this physical displacement is forced, forced, and in some cases even accompanied by killings.

However, land flooding and changes in river ecosystems, both downstream and upstream, also affect the use of natural water and land resources. When local people depend on these factors, the destruction or alteration of land and natural resources often results in the loss of traditional livelihoods, including agriculture, fishing, hunting, grazing, firewood and other forest resources. This not only destroys the local economy, but also forces people to leave their homes. Deprivation of access to natural resources separates local residents from their livelihoods and familiar socio-cultural environment.

The manifestation of these social impacts over time depends on the geographical location of settlements in relation to the dam and reservoir. In case of loss of homes and livelihoods when the reservoir is filled, the social impact is quick and immediate.

However, the impact on downstream lifestyles becomes apparent only after the dam is built. It can manifest itself quickly, for example, due to changes in the hydrological regime of the river and its impact on agriculture, or slowly, when natural complexes are degraded, biodiversity and ecosystem productivity are lost due to changes in physical and chemical processes.

Scale of physical displacement

The information base of the Commission shows that a large number of dams were accompanied by physical displacement of the population. Over the past half century, the creation of large dams around the world has forced tens of millions of people to leave their homes. The scale of this impact is highly dependent on the location of the dam, its size and other characteristics, such as the flooded area, population density in the river valley.

Of the eight dams for which a detailed analysis was carried out, only in one case there was no involuntary resettlement of people. This is a cascade of dams in the basin of the Glomma and Laagen rivers. In the survey analysis, physical resettlement was noted during the construction of 68 out of 123 dams. Of these 68 projects, 52 are in Latin America, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.

Large dams on major river channels in densely populated parts of the world inevitably lead to displacement. The results of the survey analysis show that it was required in 26% of cases for dams with a flood zone of less than 1 sq. km. km. For dams whose flood area exceeded 100 sq. km, forced resettlement of people occurred in 82% of cases. At the same time, it should be taken into account that this indicator may turn out to be underestimated due to the general tendency to conceal the true volumes of involuntary resettlement, which will be discussed further.

On a global scale, the total number of forced migrants in connection with the construction of dams can be in the range of 40-80 million people. According to official statistics, between 1950 and 1990. In China, the displaced population amounted to 10.2 million people. This is 34% of the total displacement caused by development projects, including the construction of cities. Independent sources estimate the real number of displaced people is much higher than the official figures, indicating that 10 million people were displaced only in connection with the construction of dams on the Yangtze River. Large dams in India forced 16-38 million people to leave their homes. The total figures for India and China show that only in these countries the total number of forced migrants in connection with the construction of dams in 1950-90. could be 26-58 million people. Their numbers increased significantly after 1990 in connection with the implementation of new major projects, such as the Three Gorges Dam in China.

Among the World Bank-financed projects that result in the need for population displacement, large dams accounted for 63% of the resettlers. These estimates do not include the millions of people who have been displaced by other aspects of large dam projects, such as the construction of canals, buildings, infrastructure, and compensatory measures, such as the creation of specially protected natural areas. In addition, the estimates refer only to involuntary resettlement from the flood zone. They do not include people upstream and downstream of the dam who have to move due to loss of livelihoods.

Box 4.2: Economic, socio-cultural consequences of resettlement and its impact on public health

Resettlement programs are mainly focused on the process of physical displacement rather than on the economic and social development of the resettled population and other groups affected by dams.

According to the Cernea model “Impoverishment Risks and Reconstruction…”, resettlement is usually accompanied by the marginalization of certain groups of people, that is, the loss of their usual place of residence and the economic disruption of the existing system of social ties. In this regard, the migrants face a huge risk of increasing poverty, meaning landlessness, unemployment, homelessness, food shortages, increased mortality, loss of public natural resources, resulting in a loss of socio-cultural sustainability.

The main economic risk for the resettled population is the deprivation of traditional sources of livelihood - arable land, forests, pastures, surface and ground water, fish stocks, etc., as well as access to natural resources. The destruction of existing systems leads to a temporary or permanent, often irreversible, decrease in the standard of living of people. Due to declining water quality and other reasons, there is a risk of disease outbreaks, which can lead to increased mortality. An example is the high mortality rates observed after relocation from the flood zone of the Kariba and Aswan dams.

Underestimation of the number of displaced persons.

At the planning stage, the number of people who will be directly and indirectly affected by the dam is often underestimated, which leads to an inadequate understanding of the nature and extent of negative impacts. In all projects for which the Commission carried out detailed analyzes, the initial estimates did not take into account all the people who would be affected by the dam. The level of this underestimation ranged from 2 to 40 thousand people.

Box 4.3: Lost Migrants - Projects by Sardar Sarovar in India and Pak Moon in Thailand.

For the Indian project Sardar Sarovar, the Narmada Water Tribunal in 1979 indicated a figure of 6,147 families to be resettled, which was about 39,700 people. The mission of the World Bank in 1987 estimated the number of migrants at 12,000 families, which is about 60,000 people. In 1991, the project administration provided an estimate of the number of migrants already at 27,000 families. According to data received from the authorities of the three states whose residents were affected by the project, now we are talking about 41,000 families (205,000 people).

The number of resettlers in connection with the Sardar Sarovar project is likely to increase, since even 13 years after the start of full-scale construction work, resettlement issues have not been resolved. Estimates of the number of migrants do not include at least 157 thousand people displaced in connection with the construction of irrigation canals. This also does not include the population displaced in connection with the creation of a specially protected natural area, as well as 900 families living directly at the site of the dam construction. They were evicted back in the 1960s at the stage of preparatory work.

These estimates also exclude the population living downstream of the dam. The influence of the latter on the livelihoods of these people was also not evaluated. Work in this direction began only in recent years, when after 1985 local residents sharply intensified their struggle for their rights.

In 1991, when the construction of the Pak Moon dam began, 241 families received the status of migrants. By the time construction was completed, it became clear that 1,459 families had to move. However, the true social impact of this project became clear when the impact of the dam on fisheries downstream of the dam was taken into account. This happened after an active struggle on the part of the affected population. As a result, in May 2000, the Thai government paid temporary compensation (until a final decision is made on the loss of fishing as a source of livelihood) to 6204 families.

Examples include major dam projects in Africa such as the Ruzizi hydropower project affecting Zaire, Rwanda and Burundi, the Funtua Dam in Nigeria, and the Kiambere Reservoir on the Tana River in Kenya. The underestimation of the number of migrants ranged from 1 to 15 thousand people. A similar pattern is observed in other regions of the world.

Among the projects financed by the World Bank, the actual number of resettlers after their completion exceeded the values ​​declared at the project evaluation phase by 47%.

The Commission's review analysis also shows a similar trend in project baselines, resulting in 35% more people actually displaced than originally planned. At the same time, we are talking about the most minimal estimates of the scale of this problem, since the reliability of the initial information is very low. The materials provided by non-governmental organizations during the discussion of the results of the review analysis and challenging the official data on the number of migrants confirm this point of view.

Groups of people in the zone of influence of the dam that are not counted and do not receive compensation

The system of registration of the population, which is affected by dams in general, is imperfect. The boundaries for determining the status of such persons are sharply narrowed and do not take into account a number of social groups. This includes landless peasants, indigenous tribes, the population living downstream of the dam.

A detailed analysis of dam projects conducted by the Commission showed that at the project preparation stage, the number of affected by dams does not include the population living downstream of the dam site, without officially registered land rights, indigenous tribal population affected by the work to create infrastructure for the project dams.

Among those who have received the status of victims, compensation is usually paid only when the rights to land and natural resources are formalized. As a result, many people are left without compensation, often the poorest, who depend on the use of land and natural resources that are in common use, such as forests or pastures.

The Commission's in-depth analysis shows that in the Grand Cooley, Tarbela, Aslantas and Tukurui projects, compensation was paid only to those who could present official documents for land and natural resources. With this approach, the indigenous tribal population and ethnic minorities suffer huge losses due to the possible lack of citizenship or any official documents on the lands and resources traditionally used by them.

One fifth of the physically displaced people due to the construction of the Kao Laem Dam in Thailand are Karen. Since they do not have official residence documents in Thailand, they have been deprived of their rights to compensation.

Often the population physically displaced in connection with the construction of canals, industrial buildings, the construction of reservoirs, the creation of specially protected natural areas is not included in the number of forced migrants. There are examples of this kind in all parts of the world, including the Indonesian Sulawesi, the Mahaweli project in Sri Lanka, Sardar Sarovar in India. Since these people do not have the official status of forced migrants, no compensation is paid to them.

Not all large dams lead to the physical displacement of people, but it is almost impossible to find rivers whose natural functions would not be used in one way or another by the local population. In many cases, large dams in densely populated tropical countries result in the need for physical relocation and displacement of people due to the loss of livelihoods. For example, the Urra 1 project on the Sinu River in Colombia caused the need to relocate 12,000 people, and also had a very strong negative impact on more than 60,000 fishermen in the lower reaches of the river, where the number of fish decreased sharply after the dam was created.

Physically Displaced Persons Not Receiving Assistance or Compensation

Among the physically displaced persons who are officially recognized as affected by the dam project, not all receive assistance to relocate to a new location.

In India, the number of those who received such assistance is less than 10% of the number of internally displaced people at the construction of the Bargi dam and up to 90% at the construction of the Dhom dam.

The Yacyreta dam in Argentina and Paraguay is a classic example of a protracted and incomplete resettlement. Over the 20 years of the project's implementation, only 30% of those who were to be assisted in this process were resettled. The rest were forced to leave their places of residence in a hurry during the entire 2 years remaining until the reservoir was filled. Given the experience of other large dam projects in Latin America, most of the population displaced by the construction of the Yacyreta dam will not receive the assistance that should be provided to officially recognized settlers.

An in-depth analysis of the Tarbela project in Pakistan shows that of the officially recognized 96,000 migrants, two-thirds were to move to agricultural land in the states of Punjab and Sindh. However, 2,000 families (about 20,000 people) did not receive them, as the Sindh state government allocated less land than planned.

In the case of the Aslantas dam, only 75 out of 1,000 displaced families requested resettlement assistance. Of these, 49 were deemed eligible and received new homes. The rest preferred to receive financial compensation.

In the case of Tukurui, only the Paracana tribe received the status of immigrants from the indigenous Indian population forced to move. Representatives of other tribes were not recognized as eligible for compensation.

As a result of the construction of the Grand Cooley Dam, two Indian reservations and three large Indian villages were flooded. In the summer of 1940, when the filling of the reservoir began, representatives of the authorities cleared the flooded areas by various methods, including burning houses. None of their owners received compensation. The Indians were outraged. They needed money to build new homes. In addition, they learned that white homeowners had already received compensation. As a result of mass protests, residents of Indian reservations received payments for flooded land, but only in the summer of 1941. Two Indian villages were built on a new site and still exist. However, the rest of the Indian settlements disappeared from the face of the earth after the flood.

Reducing the negative effects of resettlement, development programs for the local population

Participation of the local population in the planning and construction of dams, including on resettlement and rehabilitation issues, is very limited and ineffective. Resettlement becomes forced, traumatic, often delayed for many years or even decades and makes it impossible for any development in the flood zone. For millions of people around the globe, displacement is often associated with acts of violence by the authorities.

A striking example is one of the early projects - the Kariba Dam. The resistance of the local Tonga people ended in shooting and the death of 8 people. In 1981, the eviction of people in connection with the construction of the Sri Sailam Dam in India was also carried out with the use of force. The expulsion of people from the flood zone of the Chixoy Dam in Guatemala resulted in the death of 376 Maya Indians. During the implementation of the Miguel Aleman project in Mexico, the houses of 21,000 local Indians who did not want to move to other places were burned. During the construction of the Bargi dam in India, the authorities flooded 162 villages without warning, without waiting for the problem of resettlement of their inhabitants to be resolved.

Cash payments are the main form of compensation for migrants. However, they are usually delayed, and if they are carried out in a timely manner, then their size does not cover the damage. Compensations are special measures to compensate for the losses of the population affected by the dam. They usually take the form of one-time payments, or the provision of land, houses, etc.

The Commission's analysis shows that people living downstream of the Tukurui dam in Brazil and the Tarbela dam in Pakistan have lost their floodplains and fisheries and received no compensation. The Indians, through whose lands the power lines from the Tukurui hydroelectric power plant passed, were not initially considered to be eligible for compensation. However, later they were paid money. In the cases of the Aslantas (Turkey), Tarbela (Pakistan) and Kiambere (Kenya) dams, the affected population was not compensated enough to purchase new land to replace the lost land.

Many projects demonstrate the inadequacy of the amount of compensation, the ineffectiveness of damage reduction measures, and the lack of resources. Among them are Sri Sailam in India and Kao Laem in Thailand. There are delays in the payment of compensation, paperwork for land and houses, and the provision of basic communal amenities. Examples of long delays in the implementation of offsets (from 5 to 15 years) are the Aswan high-rise dam project in Egypt, the Nangbeto dam in Togo, Akosombo in Ghana, Itá in Brazil, Bhumibol in Thailand.

Places for resettlement are often chosen without taking into account the availability of land and livelihoods, do not take into account the wishes and preferences of the settlers. They are often forced to move to degraded land in the vicinity of the reservoir. Such lands are rapidly losing their ability to sustain human existence.

Examples of this kind include the Liu-Yan-Ba project on the Yellow River in China, when 40,000 people were relocated from a fertile valley to a windswept upland. Erosion of lands and the loss of their fertility led to the fact that people were forced to leave the developed agricultural lands with great difficulty, which, as a result, led to the impoverishment of the settlers. Similar examples are the Hoa Binh projects in Vietnam, Sirindhorn in Thailand, Batang Ai in the Malay province of Sarawak, and other rice-growing countries in Southeast Asia with a high rural population density.

The loss of cultivated land and the inability to obtain quality land compensation has a strong negative impact on the indigenous population and farmers. Examples are the Miguel Aleman and Cerro de Orro dams in Mexico, the plight of Indian tribes in Panama and Brazil, and the Tongas in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Compensation for losses in the event of loss of agricultural land, the creation of basic living conditions and infrastructure in resettlement areas are often not carried out, or are carried out in insufficient volumes and with delays for many years. The lack of means of subsistence forces the migrants to migrate. An example of this kind is the Tarbela dam, when the plots of land provided to the settlers were of poor quality, and the conditions for a normal life (such as electricity, the construction of first-aid posts, schools, etc.) were not created. Electricity was brought to resettlement settlements only after 25 years. Similar patterns were observed in the settlements of immigrants in connection with the construction of the Tukurui dam in Brazil, Sirindhorn in Thailand, Akosombo in Ghana. In northeastern Thailand, the failure of resettlement schemes between 1960 and 1970 left 15,000 rural families without land. Government reports in China characterize the resettlement problems associated with dam construction as "seven hardships" and "four inadequacies". The "seven difficulties" include lack of electricity, drinking water, food, schools, medical facilities, lack of communications and transport. The "four inadequacies" refer to insufficient and poor quality irrigation, housing, flood control, and reservoir management.

Resettlement programs primarily focus on the process of physical displacement of the population, and not on the economic and social development of resettlers and other social groups that are negatively affected by dams. The lack of responsibility on the part of the state for the fulfillment of obligations leads to poor and incomplete implementation of resettlement programs. Long delays in the start of resettlement programs are common, which creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and causes psychological and social tension among those awaiting resettlement. These and other problems significantly reduce the effectiveness of resettlement programs and the issuance of compensation for the settlement of displaced persons, and the risk of increasing poverty increases.

Not surprisingly, the standard of living of migrants is not restored to its original level. At least 46% of the 10 million Chinese displaced in connection with the construction of reservoirs are below the poverty line. In India, 75% of internally displaced people have not reached the initial standard of living and live on the verge of poverty. A 1993 survey of 32,000 people displaced by the Kedung Ombo dam in Indonesia found that 72% were worse off than before the resettlement. The living conditions of the 800 Nya Heun ethnic minority families displaced by the construction of the Houay Ho Dam in Laos are shocking. These people suffer from lack of food, clean water, lack of arable land.

Often, the large scale of resettlement makes this process very difficult and makes it difficult to carry out restoration activities at the proper level.

The feedback between the volumes of resettlement and the possibilities of its qualitative implementation is quite obvious. For example, in the flood zone of the Danjiangkou project in the Chinese province of Hubei in 1958, there were 345 villages. Although in the 1980s and 1990s The Chinese authorities persistently tried to improve the living conditions of the migrants, many acute problems remained unresolved. In 1996, out of 35 thousand migrants living in the vicinity of the city of Shiyan, their incomes were below the official poverty line.

In India, large volumes of resettlement have made it extremely difficult for the Sardar Sarovar project to address this problem (see Box 4.3). From the start of the resettlement process in 1984 to date, only 20% of eligible people have been resettled.

Positive experience of resettlement, compensation and development

The impoverishment of migrants is increasingly recognized as unacceptable. There is a wide range of options available to ensure that not only the settlers, but everyone affected by the project will benefit from it. The implementation of these options in life is in the interests of all interested parties. The local population that has benefited from the project will reduce the cost of its implementation and the cost of building dams. The difficulty of solving the problem of turning the local population into a beneficiary of projects lies in imperfect laws, plans, financial opportunities, lack of political will on the part of the authorities and project managers.

To obtain positive results, it will be necessary to minimize the number of displaced persons, approach resettlement as a development, with appropriate legislative support for this process. Sustainable livelihoods of the local population can be provided through both land use and other non-agricultural options. It is also necessary to ensure the active participation of the local population in making design decisions and choosing forms of damage compensation, accountability and fulfillment of obligations by the authorities, as well as the structures implementing the dam project.

The creation of a legislative framework that will put the process of displacement in a legal direction is an important step in protecting the rights of the population. For example, the Reservoir Resettlement Act adopted in China clarifies the rights of the population, determines the responsibilities of the state, procedures for resolving conflicts and handling complaints. The recent changes in China's policy in this area are a positive example for other countries. Minimizing the need for resettlement is another way to effectively address the problem.

In some cases, the authors of dam projects, in order to minimize socio-cultural disturbances, make efforts to resettle local residents in single communities. The Nigerian Kainji project has taken steps to preserve social ties at the local level. The use of the social sciences contributed to the solution of this problem. Demographic and socio-cultural studies have played an important role in informing the project authors about the social and cultural characteristics of the population living in the project impact area.

When compensation is discussed and agreed upon with the local population and other stakeholders, the likelihood of unfair decisions is reduced and resettlement processes are facilitated. Even if the participants in the discussions do not fully agree with the compensation decision, they will feel more confident taking part in the discussion. This is confirmed by the resettlement program in the Zimapan project in Mexico.

In the case of the Mubuku 3 hydropower project in Uganda, public consultations involving local councils and local community leaders have made it possible to more accurately assess land values. This reduced the volume of resettlement by changing the route of the canals.

The resettlement plan prepared by the Chinese authorities for the population affected by the Xiaolangdi Dam is an example of a comprehensive strategy that combines the development of livelihoods related to both land use and other factors. The resettlement plan focuses on investing in the training and education of resettlers that the local and regional economy needs as an efficient workforce. Particular attention was paid to working with women.

The involvement of all stakeholders, including the local population, in decision-making creates the conditions for transforming the resettlement process into a local development option. The management of this long-term procedure is carried out jointly - by the population, the builders of the dam, the authorities. In the case of the Itá dam in Brazil, the hard struggle of the local population for a fair resettlement led to a joint agreement on the distribution of income, resettlement with the preservation of the structure of local communities, and the joint implementation of this program. As a result, the local population signed an agreement with Electrosul to self-manage the resettlement program.

The development of resettlement policies in countries such as Ghana and China represent two more positive attempts to learn from past mistakes.

In the case of Ghana, taking advantage of the work of the same "Resettlement Administration r. Volta", during the planning stage of the Kpong Dam, it was possible to avoid some of the mistakes that occurred during the construction of the Akosombo Dam. At the same time, despite the presence of a developed legislative framework for land issues and resettlement, as well as the improvements noted in the Kpong Dam project, it should be noted that not all possible positive intentions were realized.

China's experience in relocating people from the zone of influence of dams before 1980 was mostly not positive. New policies and legislation in this area should remedy the situation. To what extent this will be reflected in the success of the implementation of resettlement and development programs - the future will show.

Resettlement is not an inevitable consequence of infrastructure projects. It also does not always lead to the impoverishment of the poorest social groups. Recognizing the rights of the local population, especially the socially and economically marginalized, as well as ensuring that the process of resettlement and economic development is managed on the basis of the agreement of the parties, is critical to achieving positive results.