Settlement of peoples on Earth - a journey, migration or a way home? Great migration of peoples in the future: forecasts.

More and more migrants and refugees from Africa, Asia and the Middle East continue to arrive in Europe. This flow will go down in history as the most massive migration of people in the era of globalization.

As one person remarked:History doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes". The current migration process is unique in its own way, but at the same time it has features that were inherent in the large-scale migrations of the past.

The flight from poverty and wars in the hope of a better life brings alien peoples to indigenous peoples, and in this clash, as always, many things are born: the shock of the invasion, the joy of finding a new home, relief after a long journey, a hidden hatred of foreigners and their customs, intensification of conflicts and a whole gamut of other human emotions, as well as long-term political and socio-economic consequences and changes.

Great Migration

"I would rather say that these are bipedal animals, not people, or stone pillars, roughly hewn in the form of a person, which are displayed on bridges. This disgusting appearance corresponds to their habits, characteristic of cattle: they eat food unboiled and unseasoned; instead of ordinary food supplies, they are content with wild roots and the meat of the first animal they come across, which they put under their seat on a horse and so soften.

They live roaming among the forests and mountains, hardened from cold and hunger. They wear clothes like a tunic of linen or fur, and once they put their head through it, they do not let it off their shoulders until it falls off in tatters. They cover their heads with fur-lined hats and wrap their hairy legs in goatskin.

All of them, without a roof, without a homeland, without any habit of a settled way of life, wander in space, as if everyone is running further, carrying their carts behind them, where their wives work clothes for them, give birth and raise their children ... "

Attila and his hordes invade Italy. Eugene Delacroix

This is how the ancient Roman historian Ammian Marcellinus (who, by the way, was a Syrian Greek by origin) described the Huns in his work "Acts" (Res Gestae, also known as "History" or "Roman History"), commenting on the invasion of barbarian tribes into Europe in the middle of IV century AD e.

Experts are still arguing about the reasons for the mass migration of nomads. Some talk about "global climate change": severe droughts have led to the depletion of lands controlled by nomadic tribes. Population growth also played a role. As a result, the barbarians began to increasingly visit the inhabitants of the European part of the Roman Empire.

The expansion of the living space of the Huns, Goths, Vandals and other tribes and their penetration deep into Europe stretched for several centuries. The aggravation of cultural, linguistic and religious conflicts between the Germanic tribes and the settled population ultimately led to the collapse of Rome and the destruction of the empire.

Newcomers arriving in Europe today do not wear goatskins or fur tunics. In many ways, however, their invasion of modern Europe looks as overwhelming as the barbarian invasion looked to the citizens of the Roman Empire 15 centuries ago.

What drives people from different parts of Africa and Eurasia today? In this crisis, it is quite difficult to distinguish between refugees and migrants. Many have indeed lost everything they had in the bloody chaos of the wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and other conflicts. Others flocked to the countries of the Old World in search of new opportunities, fleeing poverty in their native lands.

Intercontinental migrations

In search of new opportunities, many migrants of the past made even longer journeys than those who flee today to Europe. The European and African ancestors of today's Americans, Canadians, and residents of South America followed the discoverers of new continents, from the Old World to the New.

At the same time, according to many estimates, the number of imported slaves from Africa until the beginning of the XIX century. outnumbered free people. A number of historians note that in the period 1492-1776. of the 6.5 million immigrants who crossed the Atlantic and settled in the Western Hemisphere, only 1 million were Europeans. The remaining 5.5 million were slaves brought by force from Africa.

During the nineteenth century the scale of intercontinental migration is on the rise, due to relative overpopulation in some countries and labor shortages in others. In addition to the main migration destinations - the United States, Canada, as well as a number of countries in South America - following the exiled prisoners, in search of a better life, people went to Australia and New Zealand.

At the same time, as during the Great Migration of Peoples in the IV-VII centuries. in Europe, conquistadors and adventurers of all stripes and the waves of migrants that followed them crushed the old order of life in those parts of the world where they came to plunder and equip their new world.

A new beginning and expansion of living space for Old World colonists and their slaves was an apocalypse for the indigenous peoples of the Americas. Many tribes and peoples were completely exterminated, their cultures and value systems were wiped off the face of the Earth.

The genocide of the Aborigines of Australia and Tasmania by the British colonists also went down in history and was described by a number of contemporaries, in particular Charles Darwin, as well as military historian and correspondent Alan Moorhead.

Intercontinental migration to the countries of North and South America reached its maximum at the beginning of the 20th century. In 1900–1914 about 20 million people left Europe, about 3/5 of this number settled in the United States. The subsequent world wars had a serious impact on the fate and lives of many people and migration flows.

Immediately after the First World War, the intensity of intercontinental migration dropped sharply. A number of countries, in particular the United States and Australia, introduced restrictive measures for migrants at the legislative level, and after a surge in the early 1920s. in the future, the number of overseas migrants again began to decline.

First and Second World Wars

The First World War led to mass movements of the peoples of Europe. People were forced to flee from the war zones both to other regions of their countries and to neutral countries. However, a much more serious factor was the conclusion of peace treaties and the establishment of new state borders following the war. National minority groups were forced to leave their former places of residence, often there were also forced deportations. In particular, over 500 thousand Germans were resettled from the territory that had ceded from Germany to Poland, more than 200 thousand Hungarians were forced to leave the territory of Czechoslovakia. Groups of the German-Austrian population moved to Austria from areas that used to belong to Austria-Hungary.

The Second World War further accelerated the movement of population groups of one nationality from one country to another. Before the start of the war, more than 12 million Germans lived in the countries of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, on the territory of Hungary, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.

Those who did not return to Germany along with the retreating German troops were resettled in Germany in the years after the Second World War by the decisions of the Potsdam Conference in 1945. Many countries of Eastern Europe also exchanged national minorities - again due to changes in the borders of states following the war.

At the same time, the Second World War led to a new intensification of intercontinental migrations. In particular, during the repatriation of the Japanese from the regions of China, Korea, and other regions of Asia, about 6.3 million people were resettled to Japan.

Great Depression in the USA

An example of a large-scale flight from poverty was migration within the United States during the Great Depression and a series of dust storms in the 1930s.

By some estimates, more than 1 million Americans impoverished by the economic and environmental crises have traveled across the continent in search of work.

The confrontation with the reality of poverty and hopelessness, as well as the contempt with which the desperate migrants in the western states were met, was described by John Steinbeck in The Grapes of Wrath:

"And in the eyes of people, a feeling of powerlessness and despair, in the eyes of the hungry, anger is ripening. In the souls of people, clusters of anger are pouring and ripening - heavy clusters, and now they do not ripen for long.".

Some rural counties in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have shrunk by more than 25%. At the same time, in a number of districts of the western states (California, Nevada), the population has almost doubled. The population of Los Angeles County grew by over 500,000, the largest increase of any county in any US state between 1930 and 1940.

From all over the world to Israel

The very emergence of Israel as a separate state after a large amount of time has passed since quite ancient times, the resettlement of Jews around the world and the persecution they have undergone in various countries - this issue is likely to be the subject of all sorts of disputes and conspiracy theories for a very long time.

One way or another, the migration of Jews in the course of a series of so-called "aliyahs" to the territory of the future state of Israel and their repatriation after the official creation of the country in 1948 became the acquisition of a home (perhaps the most long-awaited in history) for some and a disaster for others. According to a number of estimates, after the partition of Palestine in 1947, more than 700,000 Palestinian Arabs were forced to flee the territories occupied by Israel.

Since the founding of the state, Israel, surrounded by Arab countries, has been fighting for existence and capturing more and more new territories. The ongoing demolition of Palestinian settlements in territories seized after the Six-Day War in 1967 is just one example of what one ethnic group has found a home for others.

Resettlement 2.0: reshaping Europe

What conclusions can be drawn from these and many other similar migration processes?

First, migrants flee to Europe not only from the countries of the Middle East or specifically from Syria, as a number of politicians are trying to present.

Migrants from African countries, as well as Central Asia (in particular, Afghanistan) also represent a fairly significant proportion of those eager to get into the EU.

Data: EU External Border Security Agency, graphics: BBC

Secondly, the migration crisis did not begin this year at all. The flow of migrants, which was measured in tens of thousands in 2012, has grown many times in a few years. The belated reaction of the authorities indicates their low ability to analyze further migration trends.

Thirdly, the statements of the Prime Ministers of Britain and France David Cameron and Manuel Valls about the need to "remove Assad by military force" - in 2015, after since 2011 the authorities of these countries have actually done nothing to destroy the Islamists tearing apart Syria and Iraq speak of their inability to understand the cause-and-effect relationships in the current crisis.

After the "humanitarian" bombing of Libya during NATO's "Operation Unified Protector" and the ensuing virtual political and economic collapse of Libya, the flow of migrants to Europe only intensified. Will it become smaller after the complete destruction of the remnants of statehood in Syria?..

In addition, the statements of the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, that another 160 thousand migrants planned for resettlement in the EU countries represent "only 0.11% of the European population" also call into question the ability of the EU authorities to deal with the current crisis.

Data: United Nations Refugee Agency, graphics: BBC

If Brussels could predict the social stability of society by calculating the growing share of migrants in Europe, then, quite possibly, the European commissioners could notice a certain connection between the ethnic riots that occurred in Sweden in 2014 and the increase in incoming migrants.

Europe is on the verge of a new round of exacerbation of social tension. At the same time, most likely, the growth of nationalist sentiments is inevitable, which will strengthen the positions of parties that openly criticize the continuation of European integration and the loss of national sovereignty and control of individual countries over their borders.

Questions are already open about what will become of the Schengen agreements on free movement within the EU. But what will happen to the very future image of Europe? Will the future face of the average European become a little more Syrian-Iraqi? Or will the Mali-Somali traits stand out more strongly? ..

There is a certain non-zero and growing risk that while interest rates are being calculated in Brussels and quotas for resettling migrants are being distributed, not everyone will want to wear masks of tolerance.

Individual law-abiding citizens of Europe may decide in the future to stop being such and, without waiting for the moment when Messrs. Cameron, Waltz, Juncker and others deign to "find a solution", they themselves will begin to "solve problems" - and by exactly the same methods that the European authorities offer for Syria and other countries.

For several weeks now, Europe has been literally stormed by hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Middle East. Through Italy, Greece, Serbia, Macedonia and Hungary, they are trying to reach Germany, France and Britain in order to settle there permanently. A large number of people are fleeing warring Syria, where about half of the population(!) was forced to leave her permanent place of residence. About two million Syrian refugees moved to neighboring Turkey alone, who are now striving to get to European countries.

They are also joined by migrants from other countries of the Near and Middle East, as well as South Asia - Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc. According to experts, Europe has not encountered such a flow of refugees since the Second World War ...

It is obvious that the leaders of the European Union are in a real stupor, because they do not know what to do with this problem. This is evident from their own statements, which literally contradict each other.

Thus, German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks about the need for an even distribution of arriving people across various EU countries. In response, voices of protest against Merkel's proposals are heard from states such as Poland or Slovakia - this is not surprising, since the weak economies of these states are unlikely to withstand the additional burden in the form of migrants.

The Italians generally threaten to sink ships with refugees, and Britain is ready to leave the EU if the problem is not resolved in the very near future...

In general, Europe is confused and it does not seem that this confusion has somehow passed.

Conspiracy here, conspiracy there

What caused such a massive migration? There are a lot of theories about this. Up to the most exotic.

For example, the leader of the "National Front" of France, Marine Le Pen, sees in what is happening a conspiracy of the ruling circles of Germany. According to her, the Germans today are very seriously concerned about their rising in price products, which can no longer compete with the products of other countries, especially China. And in order to reduce the cost of their export goods, the German rulers want to reduce their cost. First of all - due to a sharp reduction in wages for workers and employees.

It is clear that the native Germans will never agree to this. Therefore, I will replace them with foreigners from Asia and Africa. First, in less qualified areas of the German economy, and then in more complex areas. That is why, says Marine Le Pen, Angela Merkel is so calm about migration issues and calls not to drive out the newcomers, but rather, to accept them almost with open arms.

In this regard, Merkel's idea to create special refugee camps is curious. The Germans will filter people there - Germany will take away the most literate and sought-after people, but the rest of the “foam” will be sent to the expanses of some Romania, Poland or even Ukraine, which, in pursuit of the European dream, has already expressed its readiness to host eastern migrants ...

But there is a more bewitching conspiracy theory. An article is very popular on the Internet today, which claims that in fact, through the invasion of migrants, we see the invisible struggle of the two almighty world financial clans, the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers. The former are European oligarchs, while the latter are American.

Allegedly, the Rothschilds were already tired of the omnipotence of the Americans and therefore set out to create their own global financial system, an alternative to the US Federal Reserve System. To do this, they organized the flow of migrants in order to scare the most important US ally in Europe - Britain. Therefore, it is not in vain that today the British authorities are constantly talking about their possible exit from the EU. And every day this prospect becomes more and more real.

“The referendum on UK membership in the EU is a good time. And the influx of migrants from continental Europe is designed to cause maximum irritation among the subjects of the kingdom, to encourage them to vote for leaving the EU.”

And as soon as Britain leaves the EU, the Rothschilds will have a free hand. Moreover, they will even agree to an alliance with the most important geopolitical opponents of the United States:

“Their main wallet and ally is China. Hopes are connected with him for the creation of a new world center, challenging the old American hegemon. For the sake of an alliance with Beijing, the Rothschilds are ready to enter into temporary cooperation with Russia - due to its obvious geopolitical necessity for China - to integrate Russia, and more broadly, the Eurasian space, into their global plans.

The author believes that the Rothschilds will succeed, especially against the backdrop of today's obvious degradation of the American political and business elite, which has sowed such chaos in the world that it can no longer control it...

And finally, the third version of the global conspiracy, which is especially popular with Russian propagandists, is a purely American game. As political scientist Elena Ponomareva, who is close to the Kremlin, writes about this:

“NATO has deliberately created certain problems for the Russian Federation, because the so-called arc of instability, which stretches from the Balkans through North Africa and the Middle East, is a direct threat to Russia's southern border.

The Western bloc deliberately initiated the destabilization of these regions. The United States was well aware that there would certainly be a flow of refugees, and in which direction it would also move. First of all, to Europe.

Thus, Washington intended to weaken the EU and sow chaos in Europe, which, as a national structure, has become a fairly serious competitor to the United States in the economic and political sense. In addition, in the longer term, the US plans included upsetting the alliance between Moscow and Berlin, because the establishment of partnership relations between Russia and Germany is a nightmare for the United States.”

Honestly, the argument is very weak. The United States does not need to destabilize Europe through refugees, because Europe, from the point of view of geopolitics, is a complete zero. She and her elite have long been tightly controlled by the Americans - the events in Ukraine showed this most clearly. Therefore, there is no “strategic partnership” between Moscow and Berlin and could not be, by definition.

I think that the situation in reality is much more prosaic and scarier than any global conspiracy theories...

How do you live without Gaddafi?

Best of all, in my opinion, this situation was defined by the former employee of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry, Sandor Chikos. Here is what he said in an interview with the Free Press:

“The first reason for what is happening is the syndrome of the crisis of capitalism, when life for billions of people has become unbearable: blatant poverty, hopelessness, and more specifically, there is nothing to live on.

The second reason is, of course, the aggressive policy of the United States - the same policy of "controlled chaos". The insatiable greed of TNCs. The insane desire of the United States to dominate the whole world, at any cost crushing everyone and everything who and what tries to stand in their way in defiance. All these endless wars, conspiracies to eliminate objectionable regimes (Gaddafi, now Assad). Recently still quite prosperous, flourishing countries of Libya, Syria are now turned into ruins.

Let's show this with concrete examples. It all started with the US attack on Iraq under the slogan of "fighting world terrorism." In fact, America - in pursuance of its well-known strategy to establish complete control over the world's energy resources - has begun to seize by force the richest sources of raw materials, primarily oil and gas, which are located in the Middle East.

This strategy continued already during the so-called "Arab Spring", which led to the overthrow of secular dictatorial regimes from Tunisia to Egypt. It didn’t work out only in Syria, where the rather smart and tough ruler Bashar al-Assad turned out to be in power, who did not want to “bend under the changing world.”

The result of this American policy was the emergence of ISIS, the ongoing war in Syria and complete chaos in countries such as Libya ...

A year and a half ago, the representative of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, John Ging, said that it would take decades to resume normal life in Syria and rebuild everything destroyed:

“The streets and districts of cities were destroyed. Heavy military equipment fired on residential areas: tanks, artillery. In many cases, houses cannot be repaired, only demolished and rebuilt.”

As Ging further noted, the most difficult situation has developed in the city of Deraa, from which anti-government demonstrations began in 2011, and in Aleppo, which was considered the economic capital of Syria before the war. According to him, almost the entire infrastructure of these cities has been destroyed, factories and offices have been looted, schools and hospitals are not working. The country is thrown back in development for decades!

According to the Al-Watan newspaper, as a result of the war, the Syrian economy lost almost the entire oil industry - oil exports fell by 95% compared to the pre-war level. The volume of deliveries of imported goods decreased by 88%. The Syrian pound has been sharply devalued. The population in a panic is buying food and essential goods. From 2011 to mid-2013, prices have risen by 212%! It is not surprising that more than half of the population lives below the poverty line, who, by hook or by crook, seeks to leave their defeated country ...

The situation in Libya is no better. Here is how our regular author Yulia Chmelenko described it:

“The system of social protection of the population has been completely destroyed - in this once rich country, where everyone had guaranteed medical care and free education, today healthcare has been destroyed, unemployment and devastation reign in the country. Damage from NATO bombings is estimated at $14 billion, which is seven times higher than the similar losses of European countries from German bombings during World War II in comparable prices.

In addition, huge damage was done to the country's economy, which will take decades to recover. According to a study by the international consulting company Geopolicity, Libya's budget losses alone amounted to about $14 billion.

The oil infrastructure of the state has collapsed. If before the start of the conflict, daily oil production was 1.6 million barrels per day, then by the end of the conflict, production had fallen as much as eight times! The new Libyan authorities are constantly trying to raise the level of oil production to pre-war levels. However, even by the beginning of 2013, this level was no more than 1.4 million barrels per day. Difficulties in the recovery of the oil industry are still associated with constant armed clashes in Cyrenaica, the main oil-producing region of the country, and the lack of necessary investment resources.

Before the war, many of the largest oil and gas companies in the world worked in the country, including the Italian ENI, the Austrian OMV, the Spanish Repsol, the French Total and the German Wintershall. Many of them are returning to the Libyan market today. However, ongoing armed conflicts and security problems bring all these attempts to naught ...

And also, as a result of the conflict, Libya, in fact, has become an eternal debtor of those countries where the rebels who fought against Gaddafi were trained and treated. Thus, the debt to Greece alone in this regard amounted to about €150 million.

In addition, foreign banks, with the beginning of the revolution, froze Libyan accounts in the amount of more than $ 150 billion. According to the chief researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Historical Sciences Anatoly Yegorin, these funds are actually lost for Libya itself ... ".

But the worst thing is the actual disintegration of the state into separate, independent territories:

“The former central government that existed under Gaddafi does not exist in Libya today. At one time, it was this man who managed to unite under his command the individual Libyan clans and tribes, who renounced mutual claims and were able to coexist peacefully within one state. And now the ruling General National Council is not able to control even 30% of the Libyan territory, where armed conflicts break out every now and then between individual Libyan tribes and militant groups.

Thus, two-thirds of all Libyan hydrocarbon resources are located in Cyrenaica, which no longer wants to “feed” the entire country. In 2013, the capital of Cyrenaica set up its own government, with the aim of "sharing resources in a better way and destroying the centralized system inherited by the authorities in Tripoli"...

Following Cyrenaica, the region of Fezzana also proclaimed its autonomy. The authorities of the region even elected their own president. The official reason for separation from the center was the inability of the latter to solve the primary problems of the region...”.

In a word, the Libyans, like the Syrians, no longer expect anything good from the future, and therefore they rushed in droves today to prosperous Europe.

And all this was superimposed on the global economic crisis, the end of which is not in sight. The crisis hit the underdeveloped countries of the third world most of all - Western investors left, who now prefer to keep their funds in strong economies, there were no free funds from various international financial organizations such as the IMF - also due to the crisis in the main donors, Western countries. For the same reason, many humanitarian and social programs under the auspices of the UN, which at least somehow supported the needy people in the countries of Asia and Africa, have been curtailed.

That is, capitalism today is not just in crisis. He, due to the existing globalization, where everyone is connected with everyone, generally called into question the existence of entire states and peoples!

All hope for Russia

Thus, the picture is not at all cheerful. Perhaps we are witnessing not just another wave of migration, but the real migration of peoples, which humanity has not seen for almost two thousand years. And it was not I who said this, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of the most intelligent and sober-minded leaders of modern Europe.

He also outlined the prospects for such a great migration - the ethnic "washout" of native Europeans, the elimination of Christian values ​​and, ultimately, the destruction of Europe in its current cultural and political understanding...

Let me remind you about the previous Great Migration. It happened approximately in the III-VIII centuries of our era during the extinction of the ancient ancient world. Then, in the vast expanses of our continent, global climate changes occurred - there was a sharp cooling, which made it simply impossible to live in many parts of Europe and Asia.

Entire tribes and peoples moved from their habitual habitats, who went to look for a better life in more prosperous regions. It is clear that the eyes of the then barbarians turned primarily to the prosperous and civilized countries of that time. As a result, the barbarian invasions almost completely destroyed the ancient cultures both in the East and in the West - the barbarians swept like a terrible tornado through vast territories stretching from the Atlantic to China.

But the most powerful blow fell on the Roman Empire, which was hit by powerful human flows of the ancient Germans, Slavs, Finno-Ugric peoples, Arabs, Sarmatians, Alans, etc. And the empire ceased to exist...

The result was a real regression, the world sank into the darkness of the Middle Ages, many purely technical skills were lost, education became the lot of only the very elite, and culture sank to the most primitive level. According to historians, the level of the Roman Empire - in various areas of life - Europe managed to reach only after ... almost a thousand years!

So is it really worth hoping that the current Great Migration will be less cruel and destructive? I don't think so.

In this regard, the European media even appeared even reasoning that very soon the inhabitants of the continent will soon have to seek salvation not just anywhere, but in Russia hostile to the West.

This, in particular, writes the Polish edition of Obserwator Polityczny:

“As the fall of the West intensifies, Russia will turn every year into the only strong and stable state in an unstable environment.

Already today, many people from countries ruled by soft-hearted politicians who are unable to cope with the banal problem of illegal immigration look with admiration and hope at Russia, about which much can be said, but one thing is for sure - Russians can be sure of their leaders. They will not leave them and hide under the table, waiting until the situation changes enough so that they can go to the cameras and lie.

Today there can be no doubt that the Russian model of state organization is more efficient and, in principle, completely resistant to crises, and Europeans can envy the Russians. Peaceful sleep in some regions of Hungary today is already a memory. People are afraid of illegal migrants who, not respecting their rights and customs, often behave at night in such a way that people perceive it as a threat. Neighbors organize surveillance in villages and small towns, because the Hungarian government is clearly afraid to intervene, so as not to be declared fascists under pressure from European print media ...

There are fewer and fewer states in the world where you can go to sleep peacefully, without fear that someone else will come home at night and cause harm. A year ago, we did not notice this, but today, many in Europe would like to see a few “polite people” in green uniforms standing at the nearest crossroads and ensuring stability, peace and security. But where do you get them from?

And if we take this issue seriously, then in Europe, if nothing changes, in some five years Russia will be the only strong and stable state in an unstable environment. Most likely, the only one in which it will be possible to flee, asking for asylum. Better Siberia or Sakhalin than the fall of Western civilization, which you may not survive.

Of course, the scenario described here looks incredible today. But this is just for now. After all, the ancient Romans also probably thought that everything would work out somehow. But alas, when the disaster came, they did not have their own alternate "airfield", similar to today's Russia ...

Vadim Andryukhin, editor-in-chief

The resettlement of man on the planet is one of the most exciting detective stories in history. Deciphering migrations is one of the keys to understanding historical processes. By the way, you can see the main routes on this interactive map. Recently, many discoveries have been madeScientists have learned how to read genetic mutations; in linguistics, methods have been found in accordance with which it is possible to restore proto-languages ​​and the relationships between them. There are new ways of dating archaeological finds. The history of climate change explains many routes - a man went on a great journey around the Earth in search of a better life, and this process continues to this day.

The ability to move was determined by the level of the seas and the melting of glaciers, which closed or opened up opportunities for further advancement. Sometimes people have had to adapt to climate change, and sometimes it seems to have worked out well. In a word, here I reinvented the wheel a little and sketched out a brief summary of the settlement of the earth, although I am most interested in Eurasia, in general.


This is what the first migrants looked like

The fact that Homo sapiens came out of Africa is now recognized by most scientists. This event happened plus or minus 70 thousand years ago, according to the latest data, it is from 62 to 130 thousand years ago. The figures more or less coincide with the determination of the age of skeletons in Israeli caves at 100,000 years. That is, this event still took place over a decent period of time, but let's not pay attention to the little things.

So, a man came out of southern Africa, settled on the continent, crossed into the narrow part of the Red Sea to the Arabian Peninsula - the modern width of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 20 km, and in the Ice Age the sea level was much lower - perhaps it could be crossed almost ford. The level of the world's oceans rose as the glaciers melted.

From there, part of the people went to the Persian Gulf and into the territory of approximately Mesopotamia,part further to Europe,part along the coast to India and further - to Indonesia and Australia. Another part - approximately in the direction of China, settled Siberia, partly also moved to Europe, another part - through the Bering Strait to America. So Homo sapiens basically settled around the world, and in Eurasia there were several large and very ancient centers of human settlements.Africa, where it all began, is by far the least studied, it is assumed that archaeological sites can be well preserved in the sand, so interesting discoveries are also possible there.

The origin of Homo sapiens from Africa is also confirmed by the data of geneticists, who discovered that all people on earth have the same first gene (marker) (African). Even earlier, there were migrations of homoerectus from the same Africa (2 million years ago), which reached China, Eurasia and other parts of the planet, but then died out. Neanderthals most likely got into Eurasia by approximately the same routes as homo sapiens, 200 thousand years ago, they died out relatively recently, about 20 thousand years ago. Apparently, the territory approximately in the region of Mesopotamia is generally a passage yard for all migrants.

In Europe the age of the oldest Homo sapiens skull is determined at 40 thousand years (found in a Romanian cave). Apparently, people climbed here for animals, moving along the Dnieper. Approximately the same age as the Cro-Magnon man from the French caves, who is considered in all respects the same person as we are, only he did not have a washing machine.

The lion man is the oldest figurine in the world, 40 thousand years old. Restored from micro parts over 70 years, finally restored in 2012, kept in the British Museum. Found in an ancient settlement in southern Germany, where the first flute of the same age was found. True, the figurine does not fit into my understanding of the processes. In theory, it should be at least female.

Kostenki, a large archaeological site 400 km south of Moscow in the Voronezh region, whose age was previously determined at 35,000 years, also belongs to the same time period. However, there are reasons to make the time of the appearance of man in these places ancient. For example, archaeologists have found layers of ash there -trail of volcanic eruptions in Italy 40 thousand years ago. Numerous traces of human activity were found under this layer, so the man in Kostenki is more than 40 thousand years old, at least.

Kostenki were very densely populated, the remains of more than 60 ancient settlements were preserved there, and people lived here for a long time, not leaving it even during the Ice Age, for tens of thousands of years. In Kostenki, they find tools made of stone, which could be taken no closer than 150 km, and shells for beads had to be brought from the sea coasts. This is at least 500 km. There are figurines made of mammoth tusk.

Diadem with mammoth tusk ornament. Kostenki-1, 22-23 thousand years old, size 20x3.7 cm

It is possible that people left at about the same time from the common transit ancestral home along the Danube and along the Don (and other rivers, of course).Homo sapiens in Eurasia encountered the local population living here for a long time - Neanderthals, who quite spoiled their life, and then died out.

Most likely, the process of resettlement to one degree or another continued constantly. For example, one of the monuments of this period - Dolni Vestonica (South Moravia, Mikulov, the nearest large city - Brno), the age of the settlement is 25 and a half thousand years.

Vestonica Venus (Paleolithic Venus), found in Moravia in 1925, 25 thousand years old, but some scientists consider it older. Height 111 cm, kept in the Moravian Museum in Brno (Czech Republic).

Most of the Neolithic monuments of Europe are sometimes combined with the term "Old Europe". These include Trypillya, Vinca, Lendel, the culture of funnel-shaped goblets. Minoans, Sikans, Iberians, Basques, Lelegs, Pelasgians are considered pre-Indo-European European peoples. Unlike the Indo-Europeans who came later, who settled in fortified cities on the hills, the old Europeans lived on the plains in small settlements and did not have defensive fortifications. They did not know the potter's wheel and wheel. On the Balkan Peninsula there were settlements of up to 3-4 thousand inhabitants. The Basque Country is considered to be a relic old European region.

In the Neolithic, which begins about 10 thousand years ago, migrations begin to take place more actively. The development of transport played an important role. The migrations of peoples take place both by sea and with the help of a new revolutionary vehicle - a horse and cart. The largest migrations of the Indo-Europeans belong to the Neolithic. Regarding the Indo-European ancestral home, almost unanimously they name the same area in the territory around the Persian Gulf, Asia Minor (Turkey), etc. Actually, it has always been known that the next resettlement of people occurs from the territory near Mount Ararat after a catastrophic flood. Now this theory is increasingly being confirmed by science. The version needs proof, so the study of the Black Sea is of particular importance now - it is known that it was a small freshwater lake, and as a result of an ancient catastrophe, water from the Mediterranean Sea flooded nearby areas, possibly actively inhabited by Proto-Indo-Europeans. People from the flooded area rushed in different directions - theoretically, this could serve as an impetus for a new wave of migrations.

Linguists confirm that a single linguistic Proto-Indo-European ancestor came from the same place where migrations to the territory of Europe and in earlier times take place - approximately from the north of Mesopotamia, that is, roughly speaking, all from the same area near Ararat. A large migration wave went from about the 6th millennium almost in all directions, moving in the directions of India, China and Europe. In earlier times, migrations also took place from the same places, in any case, it is logical, as in earlier times, the penetration of people into Europe along the rivers approximately from the territory of the modern Black Sea region. Also, people actively populate Europe from the Mediterranean, including by sea.

During the Neolithic, several types of archaeological cultures developed. Among them are a large number of megalithic monuments.(megaliths are large stones). In Europe, they are distributed mostly in coastal areas and belong to the Eneolithic and Bronze Age - 3 - 2 thousand BC. To an earlier period, the Neolithic - in the British Isles, in Portugal and France. They are found in Brittany, the Mediterranean coast of Spain, Portugal, France, as well as in the west of England, in Ireland, Denmark, Sweden. The most common are dolmens - in Wales they are called cromlech, in Portugal anta, in Sardinia stazzone, in the Caucasus ispun. Another common type of them is corridor tombs (Ireland, Wales, Brittany, etc.). Another type is galleries. Menhirs (separate large stones), groups of menhirs and stone circles, which include Stonehenge, are also common. It is assumed that the latter were astronomical devices and are not as ancient as megalithic burials, such monuments are associated with migrations by sea. The complex and intricate relationships between settled and nomadic peoples are a separate story; by the year zero, a quite definite picture of the world is taking shape.

Quite a lot is known about the great migration of peoples in the 1st millennium AD thanks to literary sources - these processes were complex and diverse. Finally, over the course of the second millennium, the modern map of the world is gradually taking shape. However, the history of migrations does not end there, and today it takes on no less global scale than in antiquity. By the way, there is an interesting BBC series "The Great Settlement of Nations".

In general, the conclusion and the bottom line is this - the resettlement of people is a living and natural process that has never stopped. Migrations occur for certain and understandable reasons - it's good where we are not. Most often, a person is forced to move on by worsening climatic conditions, hunger, in a word, the desire to survive.

Passionarity - a term introduced by N. Gumilyov, means the ability of peoples to move and characterize their "age". A high level of passionarity is a property of young nations. Passionarity, in general, was good for the peoples, although this path has never been easy. It seems to me that it would be better for a single person to be smarter and not sit still :))) Willingness to travel is one of two things: either complete hopelessness and compulsion, or youth of the soul .... Do you agree with me?

led to the Hellenization of many "barbarian" peoples.

Migrations in Ancient Rome. On the territory of modern Italy, the first migrations are associated with the Etruscan tribes, who originally lived between the Tiber and Arno rivers. In the 7th century BC e. the Etruscans began to spread their influence to neighboring regions - Campania, to the north of the Apennine Peninsula and the Po Valley. The Etruscans founded the cities of Capua, Nola, Mantua, Spina, and some believe that Rome.

The further migration of the Etruscans to the south of the Apennine Peninsula was hampered by the presence of Greek colonies. However, the influence in the territories they conquered was so great that the Etruscan dynasty seized power in Rome for a while. But in 509 BC. e. The Etruscans lost their dominant position in Italy. From the very beginning of its existence, Rome waged constant wars with its neighbors, either for the preservation of independence or for new lands.

By the 3rd century BC e. almost all of Italy was under the rule of Rome, then more and more new territories were included in the state, which were proclaimed provinces: in the 3rd century. BC e. Corsica, Sardinia and Illyria were captured; in the II century. BC e. Rome is established in Greece, Asia Minor, Numidia (Eastern Algeria), Scandinavia. Constant commercial migration contributed to the spread of elements of the culture of the Etruscans and Greeks among the settlers.

Germanic tribes originally lived in northern Germany between the Eames and the Oder and in the

pax Harz, in southern Sweden and Jutland (the Romans called "Germans" all the tribes living in Europe beyond the border of the Roman Empire, which passed along the Rhine and Danube). They were characterized by active migration processes.

At the end of the Bronze Age - around 800 BC. e. - The Germans began to migrate to the areas inhabited by the Celts. Overpopulation in the upper reaches of the Rhine and Danube, as well as the threat from the north from the Germans, forced the Celts to migrate through the Alps to Northern Italy - to the Podan Plain. The Celts made repeated attacks on Roman territories in the 3rd century BC. e. In eastern Central Europe, the Celts advanced into the Balkans and into Greece. Migration destroyed the unity of the Celtic La Tène culture.

The Germanic tribes were characterized by increased migration mobility, which is associated with several reasons: a sharp deterioration in the climate, the advance of the sea on land, the lack of a culture of rational land use, overpopulation, and rumors about the wealth of Rome.

Around 105 BC. e. the Germanic tribes of Kimry, Teutons and Ambrons, who originally lived on the Jutland peninsula and in northeastern Germany, began to move. They won several victories over the Romans and migrated to the borders of the Roman Empire. The Cymry reached Spain, and the Teutons settled in Gaul.

Around the same time, around 100 BC. e., another Germanic tribe - the Lombards - from the island of Gotland moved to the south of the Baltic Sea, where they encountered vandals. The Germanic tribe of the Suebi, who lived on the Elbe River, migrated further south, to the Main River region and to southern Germany. The deserted territories were settled by vandals.

In the 1st century BC e. Rome annexed Gaul to its possessions, having won a whole series of victories over the Germanic tribes of the Suebi, Helvetii, Belgians, Aquitanians, Arverns, Biturings, etc. The new border of the Roman Empire now passed along the Rhine-Main line -

Weser-Meuse. Gradually, the Germans became Romanized, adopting some elements of the culture of the Romans. Gradually, in Europe, Roman culture replaced the Celtic culture, which was facilitated by the mass migration of the population.

Migrations in the Middle Ages

The Middle Ages are characterized by an intensification of the migration movement, due to which the ethnic, cultural and political face of the European continent has changed.

Great Migration- the conditional name of the era of mass migrations of the Hunnic, Germanic, Alanian and other tribes in Europe between the 2nd and 7th centuries, which captured almost the entire continent and radically changed its ethnic, cultural and political appearance. The period of the Great Migration of Nations consists of three main stages.

The first stage of the Great Migration of Nations, called "German", began in the II century. from the resettlement of the Goths, who migrated from the territory of Central Sweden along the Vistula to the Black Sea coast. In 238, the Goths crossed the border of the Roman Empire on the Lower Danube, and their squads raided the Black Sea coast. Around 269, the Goths divided into the Ostrogoths, who occupied vast areas in the Northern Black Sea region, and the Visigoths, most of whom moved to the Balkans. In addition, from the III century. Germanic tribes invaded the Roman Empire: Alemanni, Vandals, Saxons, Franks. The end of the first stage dates back to 378 - the battle of Adriano-Polish.

Second stage of the Great Migration began in 378, with the invasion of Europe by the Huns - nomads

from the steppes of Central Asia of Turkic or Mongolian origin. At the beginning of the migration, the Huns subjugated the Alans, then they defeated the Ostrogoths, and the Visigoths were pushed back to the west. And although the Romans managed to stop the expansion of the Huns in 451 on the territory

modern France, this invasion set in motion the tribes that bordered the Roman Empire, hastened its conquest and collapse. The Huns themselves "dissolved" among the later migrating tribes. The Visigoths in 400 migrated to Greece, and then moved to Italy, in 410 they captured Rome. After that, they settled in the south of Gaul and penetrated the Iberian Peninsula, where they created their kingdom.

The Romans were forced to withdraw their troops from Gaul to fight the Visigoths, which was used by the Vandals and Sueves, who migrated initially to Gaul, and then (in 409) to Spain. The Sueves formed their own kingdom in the west of the Iberian Peninsula. The Vandals first settled in Andalusia in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, and in 429 crossed over to North Africa and created a German kingdom with its capital in Carthage. The Alemannic tribes crossed the Rhine and occupied the southwest of Germany, Alsace, most of Switzerland, but they were later subjugated by the Franks. The Ostrogoths crossed into Italy in 488, taking possession of the entire Alpine region and the northeastern part of the Roman province of Illyria on the Balkan Peninsula. Ravenna became the capital of the Ostrogothic kingdom, which included Italy, Pannonia and Illyria. In 555, the kingdom fell under the blows of Byzantium.

In III-IV centuries. Franks ("brave") from the right bank of the Rhine gradually migrated to Gaul. In the 5th century King Clovis expanded the possessions of the Franks up to the Pyrenees. In 486, the Frankish kingdom was formed on the territory of Gaul, the main ethnic groups in which were the Franks and the Gallo-Romans. Gradually, the Franks captured almost all the possessions of the Visigoths and Burgundians, subjugated the Germans who lived beyond the Rhine - the Thuringians, Alamans, Bavarians. Initially, the Franks settled in isolation from the Gallo-Roman population, but gradually a process of ethnic mixing took place, the pace of which varied greatly in different parts of the country.

Saxons, Angles and Jutes began to migrate from the Jutland peninsula. Part of the Saxons penetrated far into

south - to lower Saxony, Westphalia and Thuringia. Another part of the Saxons, together with the Angles and Jutes, migrated in the 5th-6th centuries. to the British Isles, where several German state formations arose, in the 9th century. became a single kingdom. German settlers pushed the Celtic tribes of the Picts and Scots into the highlands in the west of the island (Wales and Cornwall), and some moved to the continent

- on the Brittany Peninsula. Anglo-Saxon migration to Britain basically ended in the 7th century. The final events of the second stage are considered to be the invasion of the Lombards into the territory of modern

As a result of intensive migrations in Europe, a synthesis of ancient and barbarian cultures began. It was most active in northeastern Gaul. The process of ethnic and cultural mixing depended on several factors:

synthesis proceeded faster in areas where the Romans were numerically superior to the Germans;

on the nature of the settlement of the barbarians on the territory of the empire, that is, if they settled in isolation from the Romans, then this slowed down the rate of mixing;

a significant role was played by the cultural level of the alien and local population;

the adoption of Christianity by some Germans and the possibility of marriage with the Romans significantly accelerated the process of their cultural assimilation;

Severe climatic conditions (for example, in Scandinavia) had a certain effect on slowing down the pace of cultural synthesis.The third stage of the Great Migration associated with the invasion of the Slavic tribes on the Balkan Peninsula and the territory of Byzantium. The ancestral home of the Slavs stretched from the Carpathians to the area between the Vistula and the Dnieper. In the north, it bordered on the territory occupied by the Baltic tribes; in the southeast, in the Lower Volga region, the neighbors of the Slavs in ancient times were the nomadic tribes of the Iranian group - the Scythians, Sarmatians and Alans. From the 5th century movement began

nyh Slavic tribes to the west, beyond the Vistula. Another stream of migrants moved to the lower reaches of the Danube and to Byzantium, in 636 the Slavs reached the coast of the Adriatic Sea. Somewhat later, under the onslaught of the Avars, the Slavs continued to migrate to Eastern Europe. Some of them settled Pannonia, others - Moravia and the Czech Republic, others moved to the Balkan Peninsula, and then even to Asia Minor. In the Balkans, the Slavs assimilated the local tribes, while further south the Slavs themselves merged with the indigenous population. As a result of these migrations, the Slavs occupied vast territories in Eastern Europe.

Sometimes the Arab conquests of the 7th-11th centuries, the campaigns of the Normans at the end of the 8th-11th centuries, the settlement of Pannonia by the Hungarians at the end of the 9th century are sometimes attributed to the third stage of the Great Migration of Peoples.

It is difficult to estimate the number of peoples who participated in the migrations. According to some sources, the Visigoths, who occupied the Roman province of Moesia in 376, numbered 15 thousand people; vandals who moved to Italy in 406 - presumably from 200 to 400 thousand people; Slavs who crossed in 557 through

Danube to the Balkans, there were up to 100 thousand people.

So, thanks to intensive migrations in the era of the Great Migration of the Peoples of Europe, not only did the ethnic “face” change radically, but the pace of socio-economic and social development accelerated.

Arab migration

The Arabs belong to the Semitic peoples who originally lived on the Arabian Peninsula, they were engaged in nomadic camel breeding (Bedouins) and caravan trade, making seasonal migrations.

In the 620s. Islam arose in them and the rulers began an active policy of conquest in relation to neighboring territories. Arab Caliphs conquered the countries of the Near and Middle East, North Africa, and Southwestern Europe. During the Arab conquests, the Caliphate was created - a theocratic state.

The Arabs actively assimilated the culture of the peoples they conquered, in turn passing on their language, script, religion, etc. The interaction between the Arabs and the conquered peoples led to the formation of medieval Arab culture.

The liberation struggle of the peoples of Central Asia, Iran, Transcaucasia (2nd half of the 9th-10th centuries), as well as Spain (Reconquista, 8th-15th centuries) led to their liberation from Arab domination. Subsequently, Arab states formed on a large territory of the Near and Middle East and North Africa.

Reconquista

The reconquista was the process of returning and colonizing the territories occupied by Muslims by the peoples of the Iberian Peninsula; all groups of the population of Christian states were interested in it. Quite intensive migrations in the Iberian Peninsula are associated with this process.

The reconquista lasted almost 8 centuries and had its own characteristics at various stages of the history of Spain. Until the middle of the 8th century the Reconquista was characterized by the migration of people from south to north, the development of the interior of Spain by people from devastated regions and emigrants - Mozarabs. Later (until the middle of the 9th century), the deserted frontier lands of Spain were settled by peasants, and later the state took part in the resettlement. A special contribution to the Reconquista was made by the Franks, who in the VIII century. conquered Catalonia from the Arabs, and in the 9th - 10th centuries. - the north of the peninsula (the county of Aragon and the kingdom of Navarre).

Despite the successful completion of the Reconquista in Spain, the Arabs began to occupy a significant place in the total population of its population. In addition, one of the consequences of the Arab conquests was the spread of Islam, Arab culture and philosophy here.

Migrations of "barbarian" peoples

The ancient Greeks called barbarians peoples who did not speak Greek. These included nomadic Scythians who migrated from the Central Asian steppes in the 9th-8th centuries. BC e. and settled in the steppes of the Northern Black Sea region. Later (about 650 BC), the Scythians invaded Asia Minor and reached Egypt. Their migrations were mainly in the nature of military campaigns or were associated with nomadic cattle breeding.

AT 8th century BC e. Western and Central Europe were inhabited by Celtic and Germanic tribes. The Celts occupied the territories of modern Southern Germany, the central part of the Czech Republic and France. They dominated Western and Central Europe between 1000 and 500 BC. e. and created a culture known as La Tène. The Celts were engaged in trade from the Mediterranean to Palestine, Syria, Egypt and Persia.

AT 8th century the Arabs conquered North Africa and conquered almost the entire Iberian Peninsula, Southern France. In the ninth century they captured Crete, Sicily and southern Italy. In the east they conquered Transcaucasia, Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan, India and China.

The local population sometimes accepted the Arabs as liberators from Byzantine and Persian rule, some conquered peoples converted to Islam. Other peoples, retaining their religion, adopted the culture of the Arabs - these were called Mozarabs, or "Arabized".

Viking Age

The Vikings are warlike tribes that lived in Scandinavia and made sea predatory and trading trips to various countries from the 8th century. (in France, the Vikings were called "Normans", in England - "Danes", in Germany - "Askemanns", in Russia - "Varangians", and in Byzantium - "Varangas",

in the rest of Europe - "northern people").

The main reason for Viking migration was the severe lack of land in Scandinavia (not just their warlike spirit). England, Ireland, as well as cities in Europe were subjected to their attacks. Gradually, the Vikings fortified on the coast of northern England, from the 10th century. The Vikings launched a massive and organized attack on Europe: Russia, Byzantium, France, Spain, Italy were attacked, they conquered Naples and the island of Sicily. In 1066 they seized the royal power in England. They served as mercenaries in Russia and Byzantium. (Some domestic historians believe that from 862 the Varangian princes - Rurikovich - began to rule in Russia).

In addition to seizing settled lands, the Vikings also peacefully colonized undeveloped territories. In 874 they discovered and settled Iceland, in the 80s. 10th century - Greenland, and in 986 crossed over to America.

The Vikings were also engaged in trade - it was they who opened the famous route "from the Varangians to the Greeks" along the rivers of Ancient Russia. Gradually, their onslaught on Western Europe weakened, in the XI century. own kingdoms developed in Scandinavia, and the Vikings - the conquerors of Normandy, England, Italy, Ireland and Sicily - gradually mixed with the local population of these territories.

Some researchers tend to see the last wave of the Great Migration in the campaigns of the Vikings. Like the Germans, they did not limit themselves to attacks, but moved to the conquered countries. The Vikings had a great influence on changing the social, political and demographic structure of Europe.

Commercial migration during urban growth

In most countries of Western Europe, urban settlements mainly appeared in the 11th century. Their appearance is associated with commercial migrations and the development of trade. As a rule, urban settlements in Western Europe arose around merchant trading posts.

An important role in the formation of medieval cities was played by the migration of peasants and artisans. Among other types of economic activity common in the Middle Ages, an important place belonged to transit trade, which in the XI - XV centuries. in Europe centered around two "commercial crossroads". The first was the Mediterranean region - trade routes from Spain, France and Italy to the countries of the East, Byzantium and the Black Sea passed through it. The Great Silk Road, which connected China with Central and Western Asia and Europe, played a significant role in this process. The development of trade along the Great Silk Road contributed to the economic and cultural development of many states.

The Baltic and North Seas became the second trading area - merchants from Russia, Poland, the Eastern Baltic, Northern Germany, the Netherlands, England and Scandinavia traded here. The connection between these trading regions passed through the Alpine passes to the Rhine.

To protect their interests, unions of participants in commercial migrations arose. The most famous association in the XIV century. became the Hanseatic League of German merchants who traded in the Baltic region. The commercial migration of that time became one of the most important sources of primitive capital accumulation in Europe.

Crusades

The Crusades were a large-scale military-colonization movement in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1096 to 1270. The Catholic Church gave them a religious character - the struggle of Christianity with Muslims.

The reason for the beginning of the Crusades was the need to liberate Jerusalem and provide assistance to Constantinople, which was invaded by the Seljuk Turks in the 11th century. The main reasons for the Crusades were economic factors - overpopulation and the spread of poverty in Europe,

the need to expand the possessions, trade influence and income of the organizers and participants of the campaign. In total, 8 crusades took place, which led to the migration of colossal masses of

personal social and ethnic populations from Western Europe to the Middle East. However, these migrations were temporary, since the states formed by the crusaders did not last long: in the 13th century. most of the crusader states fell. Many participants in the Crusades were forced to return to their homeland - to Europe.

Spiritual and knightly orders were rather closed organizations, and their influence was rather political and economic, since they practically did not affect the demographic structure of the population of the occupied territories. One of the main consequences of the Crusades was the strengthening of the position of European merchants in the Eastern Mediterranean.