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Human civilization is developing very quickly. Only five thousand years ago, the first nodular writing appeared - and today we have already learned how to exchange terabytes of information at the speed of light. And the pace of progress is growing.
Predicting what human impact on our planet will look like even in a thousand years is almost impossible. However, scientists like to fantasize about what awaits the Earth in the future if our civilization suddenly disappears. Let us, following them, imagine an unusual situation: for example, in the 22nd century all earthlings will fly away to Alpha Centauri - in this case, what awaits our abandoned world?
global extinction
Through its activities, mankind constantly influences the natural cycle of substances. In fact, we have become another element capable of causing a cataclysm of unprecedented proportions. We are changing the biosphere and climate, extracting minerals and producing mountains of garbage. But, despite our power, it will take only a few thousand years for nature to return to its former "wild" state. Skyscrapers will collapse, tunnels will collapse, communications will rust, dense forest will conquer the territory of cities.
Since emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will stop, nothing can prevent the onset of a new ice age - this will happen in about 25 thousand years. The glacier will begin to advance from the north, holding down Europe, Siberia and part of the North American continent.
It is clear that the last evidence of the existence of civilization will be buried and ground into fine dust under many kilometers of creeping ice. However, the biosphere will suffer the most damage. Having mastered the planet, mankind practically destroyed natural ecological niches, which led to one of the most mass extinctions of animals in history.
The departure of mankind will not stop this process, because the chains of interaction between organisms have already been broken. Extinction will continue for more than 5 million years. Large mammals and many species of birds will completely disappear. The biological diversity of fauna will decrease. An obvious evolutionary advantage will be received by genetically modified plants, which scientists have adapted to the most severe conditions of existence.
Such plants run wild, but being protected from pests, they will quickly capture the vacant niches, giving rise to new species. Moreover, during these millions of years, two dwarf stars will pass close to the Sun, which will inevitably lead to a change in the planetary characteristics of the Earth, a hail of comets will fall on the planet. Such catastrophic phenomena will further accelerate the pestilence among the species of animals and plants known to us. Who will replace them?
Rebirth of Pangea
It has long been established that the earth's continents move, albeit very slowly: at a speed of several centimeters per year. During a human life, this drift is practically imperceptible, but over millions of years it can radically change the geography of the Earth.
In the Paleozoic era, there was a single continent Pangea on the planet, washed from all sides by the waves of the World Ocean (scientists gave the ocean a separate name - Panthalassa). Approximately 200 million years ago, the supercontinent split into two, which, in turn, also continued to break up. Now the planet is waiting for the reverse process - the next reunification of land into a common colossal territory, which scientists have dubbed Neopangea (or Pangea Ultima).
It will look something like this: in 30 million years, Africa will merge into Eurasia; in 60 million years Australia will crash into East Asia; in 150 million years, Antarctica will join the Eurasian-African-Australian supercontinent; in 250 million years both Americas will be added to them - the process of formation of Neopangea will be completed.
Continental drift and collisions will significantly affect the climate. New mountain ranges will appear, changing the movement of air currents. Due to the fact that ice will cover most of the Neopangea, the level of the World Ocean will noticeably decrease. The global temperature of the planet will fall, but the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere will increase. In regions with a tropical climate (and there will always be such, despite the cooling), an explosive multiplication of species will begin.
Insects (cockroaches, scorpions, dragonflies, centipedes) develop best in such an environment, and again, as in the Carboniferous period, they will become the real "kings" of nature. At the same time, the central regions of Neopangea will be an endless scorched desert, since rain clouds simply cannot reach them. The temperature difference between the central and coastal regions of the supercontinent will cause monstrous monsoons and hurricanes.
However, Neopangea will not last long by historical standards - about 50 million years. Due to powerful volcanic activity, colossal cracks will cut through the supercontinent, and parts of Neopangea will separate, setting off into “free floating”. The planet will again enter a period of warming, and the level of oxygen will fall, threatening the biosphere with another mass extinction. Some chance of survival will remain for those creatures that will adapt to life on the border of land and ocean - first of all, amphibians.
New person
In the press and science fiction, one can come across speculative assertions that man continues to evolve, and in a few million years our descendants will be as different from us as we are different from monkeys. In fact, human evolution stopped at the moment when we found ourselves outside natural selection, gaining independence from changes in the external environment and defeating most diseases.
Modern medicine makes it possible to be born and grow up even to such children who would be doomed to death in the womb. In order for a person to start evolving again, he must lose his mind and return to an animal state (before the invention of fire and stone tools), and this is almost impossible due to the high development of our brain. Therefore, if a new person ever appears on Earth, he is unlikely to come from our evolutionary branch.
For example, our descendants can enter into a symbiosis with a closely related species: when a weaker but smarter monkey controls a more massive and formidable creature, literally living on its back. Another exotic option is that a person will move to the ocean, becoming another marine mammal, but due to climate change and a lack of resources, he will return to land in the form of a clumsy "aquabiota" crawling in search of food. Or the development of telepathic abilities will direct the evolution of new people in an unexpected direction: there will be communities of "hive" in which individuals will be specialized, like bees or ants ...
After 250 million years, the galactic year will end, that is, the solar system will make a complete revolution around the center of the galaxy. By that time, the Earth will be completely transformed, and any of us, if he gets into such a distant future, is unlikely to recognize his native planet in it. The only thing that will remain at that time from our entire civilization is the small footprints on the moon left by American astronauts.
Paleontologists have established that mass extinctions of animals were a periodic phenomenon in the Earth's past. There are five mass extinctions: Ordovician-Silurian, Devonian, Permian, Triassic and Cretaceous-Paleogene. The most terrible was the "great" Permian extinction 252 million years ago, which killed 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial animal species. Moreover, it also affected insects, which usually manage to avoid the disastrous consequences of a biospheric catastrophe.
Scientists have not been able to determine the causes of the global pestilence. The most popular hypothesis says that a sharp increase in volcanic activity led to the Permian extinction, which changed not only the climate, but also the chemical composition of the atmosphere.
Anton Pervushin
At this point, you are probably fully aware of global warming. But in case you don't know about it, it must be said: the temperature is really rising rapidly.
In fact, 2016 was the hottest year on record. Temperatures this year have risen 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages. This brings us dangerously close to the 1.5 degree limit that has been set by international politicians for global warming.
Climatologist Gavin Schmidt, who is director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA), says that global warming is not stopping. And everything that has happened so far fits into this system.
This means that even if carbon dioxide emissions drop to zero tomorrow, we will still see climate change for many centuries to come. But, as we know, no one is going to stop emissions tomorrow. Thus, the key issue now is the slowing down of climate change, which should be sufficient for humanity to be able to adapt to it.
So what will the Earth look like over the next 100 years if we can still adapt to climate change?
Changes in degrees
Schmidt estimates that 1.5 degrees (2.7 Fahrenheit) is an unattainable goal in the long run. Most likely, we will reach this indicator by 2030.
However, Schmidt is more optimistic about rising temperatures 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Although it is precisely such indicators that the UN hopes to avoid.
Let's assume that we are somewhere between these indicators. This means that by the end of the century the world will have warmed 3 degrees Fahrenheit or so more than it does now.
Temperature anomalies
However, the average temperature of the Earth's surface cannot fully reflect climate change. Temperature anomalies - that is, how much the temperature in a given area will deviate from what is normal for that region - will become commonplace.
For example, last winter the temperature in the Arctic Circle became above zero for one day. Of course, it is cold for our latitudes, but extremely hot for the Arctic. This is not normal, but it will happen much more often.
This means that years like this one, when the lowest sea ice levels were recorded, will become commonplace. Summers in Greenland could be completely ice-free by 2050.
Even 2015 was not as bad as 2012, when 97% of the Greenland ice sheet began to melt during the summer. As a rule, such a phenomenon can be observed once every hundred years, but we will be able to see it every 6 years by the end of this century.
sea level rise
However, ice in Antarctica will remain relatively stable, making a minimal contribution to sea level rise.
According to the best scenario, the level of the oceans will rise by 60-90 centimeters by the end of 2100. But even less than 90 centimeters of sea level rise would destroy the homes of 4 million people.
However, changes in the world's oceans will occur not only at the poles, where the ice is melting. It will continue to oxidize in the tropics. The oceans absorb about a third of all carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which leads to an increase in their temperature and acidity.
If climate change continues, virtually all coral reef habitats will be devastated. If we stick to the best-case scenario, then half of all tropical corals will disappear.
Hot Summer
But the oceans are not the only place where things will heat up. Even if we limit emissions, the number of summer extreme warm days in the tropics will increase by 1.5 times after 2050. Further north, 10 to 20% of the days of the year will be hotter.
Let's compare this to a typical scenario in which temperatures in the tropics remain unusually high throughout the summer. This means that in temperate zones the number of warm days will increase by 30%.
But even a slight warming will affect water resources. In a 2013 paper, scientists used models to estimate what the world would look like after a drought that is about 10% worse than it is now. Climate change could lead to severe drought on 40% of our planet, twice as much as it is now.
weather anomalies
It is worth paying attention to the weather. If El Niño in 2015-2016 was any sign, then we will face more dramatic natural disasters. By 2070, more extreme storm surges, wildfires and heatwaves will hit the earth.
It's time to make a decision
Humanity is now on the brink of an abyss. We can ignore the warning signs and continue polluting the Earth, resulting in what climate scientists call a "very different planet." This means that the climate in the future will differ from the current one in the same way that the current one is not similar to the one that was in the Ice Age.
Or we can make innovative decisions. Many of the scenarios proposed here assumed that we would be net-net by 2100, meaning we could absorb more than we emit with carbon capture technology.
Schmidt says that by 2100 the planet will reach a state that will be somewhere between "a little warmer than today" and "much warmer than today."
But the difference between small and large on the scale of the Earth is calculated in millions of saved lives.
More than 68% of the Earth's fresh water is in a solid state, including glaciers, snow cover and permafrost. The ice sheet in Antarctica contains about 80% of all fresh water on the planet. Scientists are inclined to believe that at current rates it will take more than 5 thousand years to melt all the ice on the planet, but if this happens, the level of the World Ocean will rise by more than 60 meters. On these maps you will see the world as it would be if all the glaciers melted. The thin white lines mark land boundaries that still exist today.
Europe
Thousands of years later, in such a scenario, Denmark and the Netherlands would almost entirely become part of the sea, including the capitals and largest cities of Europe. In Russia, this fate would have befallen the second largest city of St. Petersburg. In addition, the expanding waters of the Black and Caspian Seas would swallow up many coastal and inland cities, most of which are in Russia.
North America
In this case, the waters of the Atlantic Ocean will completely bury the state of Florida and many coastal cities in the United States. Significant territories of Mexico, Cuba, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama will also be under water.
South America
The waters of the Amazon will become a gigantic bay, as will the waters of the confluence of the Uruguay and Paraná rivers on the southeast coast of South America. Under water will be the capitals of Argentina, Uruguay, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and Peru, as well as a large number of coastal cities.
Africa
Had there been a global ice melt, Africa would have lost less land than other continents. But a rise in the Earth's temperature would render part of Africa uninhabitable. The northwestern part of the continent would suffer the most, as a result of which the Gambia will almost completely go under water, and part of the land will be significantly affected near Mauritania, Senegal and Guinea-Bissau.
Asia
As a result of the melting of ice, all the states of Asia, one way or another having access to the sea, will suffer. Indonesia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, part of Vietnam will suffer to a large extent. Singapore and Bangladesh will go completely under water.
Australia
The continent, which will almost completely turn into a desert, will acquire a new inland sea, but will lose all the coastal cities in which most of the population currently lives. Today, if you leave the coast and go inland for about 200 kilometers, you can find only sparsely populated areas.
Antarctica
The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest on Earth and is approximately 10 times larger than the Greenland ice sheet. The ice reserves of Antarctica are 26.5 million km³. The average ice thickness on this continent is 2.5 km, but in some areas it reaches a maximum value of 4.8 km. Studies show that due to the severity of the ice cover, the continent sank by 0.5 km. This is what Antarctica would look like without the ice sheet.
Take a moment to enjoy 25 truly breathtaking photos of the Earth and Moon from space.
This photograph of Earth was taken by the astronauts of the Apollo 11 spacecraft on July 20, 1969.
Spacecraft launched by mankind enjoy the view of the Earth from a distance of thousands and millions of kilometers.
Taken by Suomi NPP, a US weather satellite operated by NOAA.
Date: April 9, 2015.
NASA and NOAA created this composite image using photographs taken from the Suomi NPP weather satellite, which orbits the Earth 14 times a day.
Their endless observations allow us to track the state of our world with a rare position of the Sun, Moon and Earth.
Taken by the DSCOVR spacecraft for observing the Sun and the Earth.
Date: March 9, 2016.
The DSCOVR spacecraft took 13 images of the moon's shadow running across Earth during the 2016 total solar eclipse.
But the more we delve into space, the more we are fascinated by the sight of the Earth.
Taken by the Rosetta spacecraft.
Date: November 12, 2009.
The Rosetta spacecraft is designed to study the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko comet. In 2007, he made a soft landing on the surface of a comet. The main probe of the apparatus completed its flight on September 30, 2016. This photo shows the South Pole and sunlit Antarctica.
Our planet is like a brilliant blue marble wrapped in a thin, almost invisible layer of gas.
Photographed by the crew of Apollo 17
Date: December 7, 1972.
The crew of the Apollo 17 spacecraft took this photograph called "The Blue Marble" during the last manned flight to the Moon. This is one of the most shared pictures of all time. It was taken at a distance of about 29 thousand km from the Earth's surface. Africa is visible at the top left of the image, and Antarctica at the bottom.
And she drifts alone in the blackness of space.
Taken by the Apollo 11 crew.
Date: July 20, 1969.
The crew of Neil Armstrong, Michael Collins and Buzz Aldrin took this picture during a flight to the moon at a distance of about 158 thousand km from Earth. Africa is visible in the frame.
Almost alone.
Approximately twice a year, the Moon passes between the DSCOVR satellite and its main observation object, the Earth. Then we get a rare opportunity to look at the far side of our satellite.
The Moon is a cold stone ball, 50 times smaller than the Earth. She is our largest and closest heavenly friend.
Photographed by William Anders as part of the crew of the Apollo 8 spacecraft.
Date: December 24, 1968.
The famous Earthrise photograph taken from the Apollo 8 spacecraft.
According to one hypothesis, the Moon was formed after the proto-Earth collided with a planet the size of Mars about 4.5 billion years ago.
Taken by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO, Lunar Orbital Probe).
Date: October 12, 2015.
In 2009, NASA launched the LRO robotic interplanetary station to study the cratered surface of the moon, but seizing the moment, the device took this modern version of the Earthrise photograph.
Since the 1950s, humanity has been launching humans and robots into space.
Taken by Lunar Orbiter 1.
Date: August 23, 1966.
The Lunar Orbiter 1 robotic unmanned spacecraft took this photo while searching for a place to land astronauts on the moon.
Our exploration of the moon is a mixture of technological conquest...
Photographed by Michael Collins of the Apollo 11 crew.
Date: July 21, 1969.
The Eagle, the lunar module of the Apollo 11 spacecraft, returns from the surface of the moon.
and irrepressible human curiosity...
Taken by the lunar probe Chanye 5-T1 (Chang "e 5-T1).
Date: October 29, 2014.
A rare view of the far side of the Moon taken by the Chinese National Space Administration's lunar probe.
and search for extreme adventures.
Taken by the crew of Apollo 10.
Date: May 1969.
This video was filmed by astronauts Thomas Stafford, John Young and Eugene Cernan during a test flight to the Moon on the Apollo 10 spacecraft (without landing). To get such an image of "Earthrise" is possible only from a moving ship.
The Earth always seems to be close to the Moon.
Taken with the Clementine 1 probe.
Date: 1994
The Clementine mission was launched on January 25, 1994, as part of a joint initiative between NASA and the North American Aerospace Defense Command. On May 7, 1994, the probe went out of control, but had previously transmitted this image showing the Earth and the Moon's north pole.
Taken by Mariner 10.
Date: November 3, 1973.
A combination of two photographs (on one - the Earth, on the other - the Moon), taken by NASA's Mariner 10 automatic interplanetary station, which was launched to Mercury, Venus and the Moon using an intercontinental ballistic missile.
the more amazing our house looks...
Photographed by the Galileo spacecraft.
Date: December 16, 1992.
En route to studying Jupiter and its moons, NASA's Galileo spacecraft took this composite image. The Moon, which is about three times brighter than the Earth, is in the foreground, closer to the viewer.
And the more lonely he seems.
Taken by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous Shoemaker ("NEAR Shoemaker") spacecraft.
Date: January 23, 1998.
NASA's NEAR spacecraft, sent in 1996 to the asteroid Eros, took these images of the Earth and Moon. Antarctica is visible at the South Pole of our planet.
Most images do not accurately represent the distance between the Earth and the Moon.
Taken by the Voyager 1 probe.
Date: September 18, 1977.
Most photographs of the Earth and Moon are composite images made up of several shots, as the objects are far apart. But above you see the first photo in which our planet and its natural satellite are captured in one frame. The picture was taken by the Voyager 1 probe on its way to its "big tour" of the solar system.
Only after overcoming hundreds of thousands or even millions of kilometers, then returning back, we can truly appreciate the distance that lay between the two worlds.
Photographed by the automatic interplanetary station "Mars-Express".
Date: July 3, 2003.
The robotic interplanetary station of the European Space Agency "Max-Express" (Mars Express), heading to Mars, took this picture of the Earth at a distance of millions of kilometers.
It's a huge and empty space.
Taken by NASA's Mars Odyssey Orbiter.
Date: April 19, 2001.
This infrared photograph, taken from a distance of 2.2 million km, shows the huge distance between the Earth and the Moon - about 385 thousand kilometers or about 30 Earth diameters. The Mars Odyssey spacecraft took this picture while heading towards Mars.
But even together, the Earth-Moon system looks insignificant in deep space.
Photographed by NASA's Juno spacecraft.
Date: August 26, 2011.
NASA's Juno spacecraft took this image during its nearly 5-year journey to Jupiter, where it is conducting research on the gas giant.
From the surface of Mars, our planet appears to be just another "star" in the night sky, which puzzled early astronomers.
Taken by the Spirit Mars Exploration Rover.
Date: March 9, 2004.
About two months after landing on Mars, the Spirit rover took a photo of the Earth looking like a tiny dot. NASA says it is "the first ever image of the Earth taken from the surface of another planet outside the moon."
Earth is lost in Saturn's glowing icy rings.
Photographed by the automatic interplanetary station "Cassini".
Date: September 15, 2006.
NASA's Cassini space station took 165 photographs in the shadow of Saturn to compose this backlit mosaic image of the gas giant. The Earth crept in on the left in the image.
At a distance of billions of kilometers from the Earth, as Carl Sagan sarcastically remarked, our world is just a “pale blue dot”, a small and lonely ball on which all our triumphs and tragedies are played out.
Taken by the Voyager 1 probe.
Date: February 14, 1990.
This image of Earth is one of a series of "solar system portraits" taken by Voyager 1 about 4 billion miles from home.
From Sagan's speech:
“Perhaps there is no better demonstration of stupid human arrogance than this distant picture of our tiny world. It seems to me that it emphasizes our responsibility, our duty to be kinder to each other, to protect and cherish the pale blue dot - our only home.
Sagan's message remains the same: there is only one Earth, so we must do everything in our power to protect it, protect it mostly from ourselves.
The Japanese artificial lunar satellite Kaguya (also known as SELENE) captured this video of the Earth rising over the Moon at 1000% acceleration for the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 8 Earthrise photo.
