Nagorno-Karabakh conflict causes the course of the conflict outcomes. The essence and history of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh

15 years ago (1994) Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed the Bishkek Protocol on ceasefire on May 12, 1994 in the Karabakh conflict zone.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in Transcaucasia, de jure part of Azerbaijan. The population is 138 thousand people, the vast majority are Armenians. The capital is the city of Stepanakert. The population is about 50 thousand people.

According to Armenian open sources, Nagorno-Karabakh (the ancient Armenian name is Artsakh) was first mentioned in the inscription of Sardur II, king of Urartu (763-734 BC). In the early Middle Ages, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Armenia, according to Armenian sources. After most of this country was captured by Turkey and Iran in the Middle Ages, the Armenian principalities (melikdoms) of Nagorno-Karabakh retained a semi-independent status.

According to Azerbaijani sources, Karabakh is one of the most ancient historical regions of Azerbaijan. According to the official version, the appearance of the term "Karabakh" dates back to the 7th century and is interpreted as a combination of the Azerbaijani words "gara" (black) and "bag" (garden). Among other provinces of Karabakh (Ganja in Azerbaijani terminology) in the 16th century. was part of the Safavid state, later became an independent Karabakh khanate.

According to the Kurekchay Treaty of 1805, the Karabakh Khanate, as a Muslim-Azerbaijani land, was subordinated to Russia. AT 1813 Under the Gulistan Peace Treaty, Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Russia. In the first third of the 19th century, according to the Treaty of Turkmenchay and the Treaty of Edirne, the artificial placement of Armenians resettled from Iran and Turkey began in Northern Azerbaijan, including in Karabakh.

On May 28, 1918, the independent state of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR) was created in Northern Azerbaijan, which retained its political power over Karabakh. At the same time, the declared Armenian (Ararat) Republic put forward its claims to Karabakh, which were not recognized by the government of the ADR. In January 1919, the ADR government created the Karabakh province, which included the Shusha, Javanshir, Jabrayil and Zangezur districts.

AT July 1921 By decision of the Caucasian Bureau of the Central Committee of the RCP (b), Nagorno-Karabakh was included in the Azerbaijan SSR on the basis of broad autonomy. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was formed on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

February 20, 1988 Extraordinary session of the Regional Council of Deputies of the NKAR adopted a decision "On the petition to the Supreme Soviets of the AzSSR and the ArmSSR on the transfer of the NKAO from the AzSSR to the ArmSSR". The refusal of the allied and Azerbaijani authorities caused demonstrations of protest by Armenians not only in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also in Yerevan.

On September 2, 1991, a joint session of the Nagorno-Karabakh regional and Shahumyan regional councils was held in Stepanakert. The session adopted a Declaration on the proclamation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic within the borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the Shahumyan region and part of the Khanlar region of the former Azerbaijan SSR.

December 10, 1991, a few days before the official collapse of the Soviet Union, a referendum was held in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which the vast majority of the population - 99.89% - voted for complete independence from Azerbaijan.

Official Baku recognized this act as illegal and abolished the autonomy of Karabakh that existed in the Soviet years. Following this, an armed conflict began, during which Azerbaijan tried to keep Karabakh, and the Armenian detachments defended the independence of the region with the support of Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora from other countries.

During the conflict, regular Armenian units completely or partially captured seven regions that Azerbaijan considered its own. As a result, Azerbaijan lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, the Armenian side believes that part of Karabakh remains under the control of Azerbaijan - the villages of the Mardakert and Martuni regions, the entire Shaumyan region and the Getashen sub-region, as well as Nakhichevan.

In the description of the conflict, the parties give their own figures on losses, which differ from those of the opposite side. According to consolidated data, the losses of both sides during the Karabakh conflict amounted to 15 to 25 thousand people killed, more than 25 thousand wounded, hundreds of thousands of civilians left their places of residence.

May 5, 1994 Through the mediation of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed a protocol that went down in the history of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as Bishkek, on the basis of which an agreement on a ceasefire was reached on May 12.

On May 12 of the same year, a meeting was held in Moscow between the Minister of Defense of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan (now the President of Armenia), the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan Mammadraffi Mammadov and the Commander of the NKR Defense Army Samvel Babayan, at which the commitment of the parties to the previously reached ceasefire agreement was confirmed.

The negotiation process to resolve the conflict began in 1991. September 23, 1991 A meeting of the Presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia took place in Zheleznovodsk. In March 1992, the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) was established to resolve the Karabakh conflict, co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France. In mid-September 1993, the first meeting of representatives of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh took place in Moscow. At about the same time, a private meeting was held in Moscow between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and then-Prime Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh Robert Kocharyan. Since 1999, regular meetings have been held between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijan insists on maintaining its territorial integrity, Armenia defends the interests of the unrecognized republic, since the unrecognized NKR is not a party to the negotiations.

In early August, there was an escalation in the tension of the conflict in the zone of Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to human casualties.

This confrontation has been going on since 1988. At the same time, since the beginning of the 20th century, the region of Nagorno-Karabakh twice became the scene of bloody Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes. AiF.ru talks about the history and causes of the intercommunal Karabakh conflict, which has long historical and cultural roots, and what led to its aggravation today.

History of the Karabakh conflict

The territory of modern Nagorno-Karabakh in the II century. BC e. was annexed to Greater Armenia and for about six centuries formed part of the province of Artsakh. At the end of the IV century. n. e., during the division of Armenia, this territory was included by Persia in its vassal state - Caucasian Albania. From the middle of the 7th century until the end of the 9th century, Karabakh fell under Arab rule, but in the 9th-16th centuries it became part of the Armenian feudal principality of Khachen. Until the middle of the 18th century, Nagorno-Karabakh was under the rule of the union of Armenian melikdoms of Khamsa. In the second half of the 18th century, Nagorno-Karabakh with a predominantly Armenian population became part of the Karabakh khanate, and in 1813, as part of the Karabakh khanate, under the Gulistan peace treaty, it became part of the Russian Empire.

Karabakh Armistice Commission, 1918. Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org

At the beginning of the 20th century, the region with a predominantly Armenian population twice (in 1905-1907 and in 1918-1920) became the scene of bloody Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes.

In May 1918, in connection with the revolution and the collapse of Russian statehood, three independent states were proclaimed in Transcaucasia, including the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (mainly on the lands of the Baku and Elizavetpol provinces, the Zagatala district), which included the Karabakh region.

The Armenian population of Karabakh and Zangezur, however, refused to obey the ADR authorities. Convened on July 22, 1918 in Shusha, the First Congress of the Armenians of Karabakh proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh an independent administrative and political unit and elected its own People's Government (since September 1918 - the Armenian National Council of Karabakh).

Ruins of the Armenian quarter of the city of Shusha, 1920. Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org / Pavel Shekhtman

The confrontation between the Azerbaijani troops and the Armenian armed groups continued in the region until the establishment of Soviet power in Azerbaijan. At the end of April 1920, Azerbaijani troops occupied the territory of Karabakh, Zangezur and Nakhichevan. By mid-June 1920, the resistance of the Armenian armed groups in Karabakh was suppressed with the help of Soviet troops.

On November 30, 1920, Azrevkom, by its declaration, granted Nagorno-Karabakh the right to self-determination. However, despite the autonomy, the territory continued to remain the Azerbaijan SSR, which led to the tension of the conflict: in the 1960s, socio-economic tension in the NKAR several times escalated into riots.

What happened to Karabakh during perestroika?

In 1987 - early 1988, the dissatisfaction of the Armenian population with their socio-economic situation intensified in the region, which was influenced by the policy of democratization of Soviet public life initiated by the President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachev and the weakening of political restrictions.

Protest moods were fueled by Armenian nationalist organizations, and the actions of the emerging national movement were skillfully organized and directed.

The leadership of the Azerbaijan SSR and the Communist Party of Azerbaijan, for its part, tried to resolve the situation by using the usual command and bureaucratic levers, which turned out to be ineffective in the new situation.

In October 1987, student strikes took place in the region demanding the secession of Karabakh, and on February 20, 1988, the session of the regional Council of the NKAO appealed to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR and the Supreme Soviet of the Azerbaijan SSR with a request to transfer the region to Armenia. Thousands of nationalist rallies were held in the regional center, Stepanakert, and Yerevan.

Most of the Azerbaijanis living in Armenia were forced to flee. In February 1988, Armenian pogroms began in Sumgayit, thousands of Armenian refugees appeared.

In June 1988, the Supreme Council of Armenia agreed to the entry of the NKAR into the Armenian SSR, and the Azerbaijani Supreme Council agreed to the preservation of the NKAR as part of Azerbaijan, with the subsequent liquidation of autonomy.

On July 12, 1988, the regional council of Nagorno-Karabakh decided to withdraw from Azerbaijan. At a meeting on July 18, 1988, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR came to the conclusion that it was impossible to transfer the NKAO to Armenia.

In September 1988, armed clashes began between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, which turned into a protracted armed conflict, as a result of which there were large casualties. As a result of the successful military actions of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh in Armenian), this territory got out of the control of Azerbaijan. The decision on the official status of Nagorno-Karabakh was postponed indefinitely.

Speech in support of the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. Yerevan, 1988 Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org / Gorzaim

What happened to Karabakh after the collapse of the USSR?

In 1991, full-fledged military operations began in Karabakh. Through a referendum (December 10, 1991), Nagorno-Karabakh tried to gain the right to full independence. The attempt failed, and this region became a hostage to the antagonistic claims of Armenia and Azerbaijan's attempts to retain power.

The result of full-scale military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1991 - early 1992 was the complete or partial capture of seven Azerbaijani regions by regular Armenian units. Following this, military operations using the most modern weapons systems spread to internal Azerbaijan and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

Thus, until 1994, Armenian troops occupied 20% of the territory of Azerbaijan, destroyed and plundered 877 settlements, while the death toll was about 18 thousand people, and more than 50 thousand were wounded and disabled.

In 1994, with the help of Russia, Kyrgyzstan, as well as the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS in Bishkek, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan signed a protocol, on the basis of which an agreement was reached on a ceasefire.

What happened in Karabakh in August 2014?

In the zone of the Karabakh conflict at the end of July - in August 2014, there was a sharp escalation of tension, which led to human casualties. On July 31 of this year, skirmishes took place between the troops of the two states on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, as a result of which servicemen from both sides died.

A stand at the entrance to the NKR with the inscription "Welcome to Free Artsakh" in Armenian and Russian. 2010 Photo: Commons.wikimedia.org / lori-m

What is Azerbaijan's version of the conflict in Karabakh?

According to Azerbaijan, on the night of August 1, 2014, reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Armenian army made an attempt to cross the line of contact between the troops of the two states in the territories of the Aghdam and Terter regions. As a result, four Azerbaijani servicemen were killed.

What is Armenia's version of the conflict in Karabakh?

According to official Yerevan, everything happened exactly the opposite. The official position of Armenia says that an Azerbaijani sabotage group penetrated the territory of the unrecognized republic and fired at the Armenian territory from artillery and small arms.

At the same time, Baku, according to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan, does not agree to the proposal of the world community to investigate incidents in the border zone, which means, therefore, in the opinion of the Armenian side, it is Azerbaijan that is responsible for the violation of the truce.

According to the Armenian Defense Ministry, only during the period of August 4-5 this year, Baku resumed shelling the enemy about 45 times, using artillery, including large-caliber weapons. There were no casualties from Armenia during this period.

What is the version of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) about the conflict in Karabakh?

According to the Defense Army of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), in the week from July 27 to August 2, Azerbaijan violated the ceasefire regime established since 1994 in the conflict zone in Nagorno-Karabakh 1.5 thousand times, as a result of actions on both sides, about 24 people died. human.

Currently, the exchange of fire between the parties is carried out, including with the use of large-caliber small arms and artillery - mortars, anti-aircraft guns and even thermobaric grenades. Shelling of border settlements also became more frequent.

What is Russia's reaction to the conflict in Karabakh?

The Russian Foreign Ministry regarded the aggravation of the situation, "which entailed significant human casualties," as a serious violation of the 1994 ceasefire agreements. The agency urged "to show restraint, refrain from using force and take immediate measures aimed at stabilizing the situation".

What is the US reaction to the conflict in Karabakh?

The US State Department, in turn, called for the ceasefire to be respected, and for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to meet at the earliest opportunity and resume dialogue on key issues.

"We also urge the parties to accept the OSCE Chairman-in-Office's proposal to start negotiations that could lead to the signing of a peace agreement," the State Department said.

It is noteworthy that on August 2 Prime Minister of Armenia Hovik Abrahamyan stated that the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev may meet in Sochi on 8 or 9 August this year.

TBILISI, April 3 - Sputnik. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in 1988, when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR. Negotiations on a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict have been held since 1992 within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a historical region in Transcaucasia. The population (as of January 1, 2013) is 146.6 thousand people, the vast majority are Armenians. The administrative center is the city of Stepanakert.

Background

Armenian and Azerbaijani sources have different points of view on the history of the region. According to Armenian sources, Nagorno-Karabakh (ancient Armenian name - Artsakh) at the beginning of the first millennium BC. was part of the political and cultural sphere of Assyria and Urartu. First mentioned in the cuneiform writing of Sardur II, king of Urartu (763-734 BC). In the early Middle Ages, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Armenia, according to Armenian sources. After most of this country was captured by Turkey and Persia in the Middle Ages, the Armenian principalities (melikdoms) of Nagorno-Karabakh retained a semi-independent status. In the 17th-18th centuries, the princes of Artsakh (meliks) led the liberation struggle of Armenians against the Shah's Persia and Sultan's Turkey.

According to Azerbaijani sources, Karabakh is one of the most ancient historical regions of Azerbaijan. According to the official version, the appearance of the term "Karabakh" dates back to the 7th century and is interpreted as a combination of the Azerbaijani words "gara" (black) and "bag" (garden). Among other provinces, Karabakh (Ganja in Azerbaijani terminology) was part of the Safavid state in the 16th century, and later became an independent Karabakh khanate.

In 1813, according to the Gulistan peace treaty, Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Russia.

In early May 1920, Soviet power was established in Karabakh. On July 7, 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (AO) was formed from the mountainous part of Karabakh (part of the former Elizavetpol province) as part of the Azerbaijan SSR with the administrative center in the village of Khankendy (now Stepanakert).

How did the war start

On February 20, 1988, an extraordinary session of the regional Council of Deputies of the NKAR adopted a decision "On a petition to the Supreme Soviets of the AzSSR and the ArmSSR on the transfer of the NKAO from the AzSSR to the ArmSSR."

The refusal of the allied and Azerbaijani authorities caused demonstrations of protest by Armenians not only in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also in Yerevan.

On September 2, 1991, a joint session of the Nagorno-Karabakh regional and Shahumyan district councils took place in Stepanakert, which adopted a Declaration on the proclamation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic within the borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the Shaumyan region and part of the Khanlar region of the former Azerbaijan SSR.

On December 10, 1991, a few days before the official collapse of the Soviet Union, a referendum was held in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which the overwhelming majority of the population - 99.89% - voted for complete independence from Azerbaijan.

Victims and losses

The losses of both sides during the Karabakh conflict amounted, according to various sources, to 25 thousand people were killed, more than 25 thousand were injured, hundreds of thousands of civilians left their places of residence, more than four thousand people are missing.

As a result of the conflict, Azerbaijan lost over Nagorno-Karabakh and, in whole or in part, seven regions adjacent to it.

Negotiation

On May 5, 1994, through the mediation of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and the Interparliamentary Assembly of the CIS in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, representatives of Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Nagorno-Karabakh signed a protocol calling for a ceasefire on the night of May 8-9. This document entered the history of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as the Bishkek Protocol.

The negotiation process to resolve the conflict began in 1991. Since 1992, negotiations have been underway on a peaceful settlement of the conflict within the framework of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France. The group also includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland and Turkey.

Since 1999, regular bilateral and trilateral meetings of the leaders of the two countries have been held. The last meeting of the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan within the framework of the negotiation process on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem took place on December 19, 2015 in Bern (Switzerland).

Despite the confidentiality surrounding the negotiation process, it is known that they are based on the so-called updated Madrid principles, transmitted by the OSCE Minsk Group to the parties to the conflict on January 15, 2010. The main principles of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, called Madrid, were presented in November 2007 in the capital of Spain.

Azerbaijan insists on maintaining its territorial integrity, Armenia defends the interests of the unrecognized republic, since the NKR is not a party to the negotiations.

15 years ago (1994) Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed the Bishkek Protocol on ceasefire on May 12, 1994 in the Karabakh conflict zone.

During the conflict, regular Armenian units completely or partially captured seven regions that Azerbaijan considered its own. As a result, Azerbaijan lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan insists on maintaining its territorial integrity, Armenia defends the interests of the unrecognized republic, since the unrecognized NKR is not a party to the negotiations.

After the Black January tragedy, tens of thousands of Azerbaijani communists publicly burned their party cards during those hours when a million-strong crowd in Baku followed the funeral procession. Many PFA leaders were arrested, but they were soon released and were able to continue their activities. Vezirov fled to Moscow; Ayaz Mutalibov succeeded him as party leader of Azerbaijan. Mutalibov's rule from 1990 to August 1991 was "calm" by Azerbaijani standards. It was characterized by the "enlightened authoritarianism" of the local nomenclature, which exchanged communist ideology for national symbols and traditions in order to strengthen their power. May 28, the anniversary of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic of 1918-1920, became a national holiday and official tribute was paid to the Islamic religion. Furman notes that the Baku intelligentsia supported Mutalibov during this period. An advisory council was established with the participation of opposition leaders, and it was with the consent of this council that Mutalibov was elected president for the first time by the Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan in the autumn of 1990. Of the 360 delegates, only 7 were workers, 2 collective farmers and 22 intellectuals. The rest were members of the party-state elite, directors of enterprises and law enforcement officials. The PFA received 31 mandates (10%), and according to Furman, it had little chance of getting more in an environment of relative stability.

After the "Black January" crisis in Azerbaijan, which led to military clashes between the Soviet Army units and units of the PFA in Nakhichevan, something like a compromise was reached between Mutalibov and the allied leadership: communist rule is restored in Azerbaijan, but in exchange the Center provides political support to Mutalibov - for account of Armenia and the Armenian movement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The allied leaders, in turn, sought to support Mutalibov, fearing to lose not only Georgia and Armenia, but the entire Transcaucasus. Attitudes towards Nagorno-Karabakh became even more negative after the ANM won the elections in Armenia in the summer of 1990.

The state of emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh was in fact a regime of military occupation. 157 out of 162 "passport check" operations carried out in 1990, the true purpose of which was to terrorize the civilian population, were carried out in ethnically Armenian villages.

By the autumn of 1990, after elections in all the republics of Transcaucasia, the Communists retained power only in Azerbaijan. Support for the Mutalibov regime became even more important for the Kremlin, which sought to preserve the unity of the USSR (in March 1991, Azerbaijan voted in favor of preserving the USSR). The blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh was strengthened. The strategy, jointly developed by Azerbaijan and high-ranking Soviet military and political figures (especially the future organizers of the August 1991 putsch), provided for the deportation of at least part of the population from the NKAR and adjacent Armenian villages.

The deportation operation was codenamed "Ring". It lasted four months, until the August coup of 1991. During this period, about 10 thousand people were deported from Karabakh to Armenia; military units and riot police devastated 26 villages, killing 140-170 Armenian civilians (37 of them died in the villages of Getashen and Martunashen). Residents of the Azerbaijani villages of the NKAO, speaking to independent observers, also spoke about the massive violations of human rights by Armenian militants. The operations of the Soviet army in Karabakh only led to the progressive demoralization of the troops themselves. Nor did they stop the spread of armed struggle in the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh: declaration of independence

After the failure of the August coup in Moscow, almost all the organizers and inspirers of Operation Ring lost their power and influence. In the same August, military formations in the Shahumyan (Azerbaijani name: Goranboy) region received an order to cease fire and withdraw to their places of permanent deployment. On August 31, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan adopted a declaration on the restoration of the independent Republic of Azerbaijan, i.e. the one that existed in 1918-1920. For the Armenians, this meant that the legal basis for the autonomous status of the Soviet-era NKAO was now being abolished. In response to the declaration of independence of Azerbaijan, the Karabakh side proclaimed the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). This was done on September 2, 1991 at a joint meeting of the regional council of the NKAO and the regional council of the Shaumyan region populated by Armenians. The NKR was proclaimed within the borders of the former Autonomous Okrug and the Shahumyan region (which had not been part of the NKAO before). On November 26, 1991, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan adopted a law abolishing the autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh. On December 10, the NKR Supreme Council, consisting exclusively of representatives of the Armenian population, declared its independence and secession from Azerbaijan based on the results of a referendum held among the Armenian population. Armenian legislators have still not resolved the apparent contradiction between the declaration of independence of the NKR and the still pending resolution of the Supreme Council of Armenia of December 1, 1989, according to which Nagorno-Karabakh was reunited with Armenia proper. Armenia stated that it has no territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Such a position allows Armenia to consider the conflict as a bilateral one, in which Azerbaijan and the NKR participate, while Armenia itself does not directly participate in the conflict. However, Armenia, following the same logic and out of fear of worsening its own position in the world community, does not officially recognize the independence of the NKR. In recent years, debates have continued in Armenia on the topic: will the cancellation of the “annexationist” decision of the Armenian parliament of December 1, 1989 and the official recognition of the NKR make a full-scale war with Azerbaijan inevitable (Ter-Petrosyan), or will such recognition help convince the world community that that Armenia is not an aggressor country? The latter point of view, in particular, was defended in June 1993 by Suren Zolyan, secretary of the commission on Artsakh (Karabakh) of the Supreme Council of Armenia. Suren Zolyan argued that until the NKR is recognized as a subject of international relations, the full responsibility for its actions lies with Armenia, which lends some validity to the thesis of Armenian aggression. In Nagorno-Karabakh itself, a certain ambiguity about whether it should be independent, whether to enter Armenia, or whether to turn to Russia with a request for inclusion in its composition, is emphasized by the fact that at the end of 1991 the then chairman of the NKR Supreme Council G. Petrosyan sent a letter to Yeltsin with a request for the entry of the NKR into Russia. He did not receive an answer. On December 22, 1994, the NKR parliament elected Robert Kocharyan, previously the chairman of the State Defense Committee, as the president of the NKR until 1996.

Armenia and Azerbaijan: the dynamics of the political process

In autumn 1990 Ter-Petrosyan, head of the ANM, won the general elections and became the president of the republic. The ANM, unlike the Armenian opposition, seeks to prevent the republic's direct participation in the Karabakh conflict and is trying with all its might to limit the scope of the conflict. One of the main concerns of the ANM is to establish good relations with the West. The leadership of the ANM is aware that Turkey is a member of NATO and the main ally of the United States in the region. It recognizes the reality, refraining from making claims to the lands of historical Armenia (now located in Turkey), and wishes to develop Armenian-Turkish contacts.

Unlike the ANM, the Dashnaktsutyun (Armenian Revolutionary Federation), mainly based abroad, among the Armenian diaspora, is predominantly an anti-Turkish party. Currently, its efforts are focused on organizing public pressure in the West to force Turkey to officially condemn the 1915 genocide. The party has a strong position in Karabakh due to its image of a firm, heroic and uncompromising organization, emphasis on military discipline, numerous connections and significant funds abroad . However, there is a sharp rivalry between the Dashnaktsutyun and President Ter-Petrosyan. In 1992, the latter expelled the Dashnak leader Hrayr Marukhyan from Armenia; in December 1994 he suspended the activities of the party, accusing it of terrorism.

Nevertheless, the efforts of the Armenian diaspora have borne fruit. Its lobby in the US Congress in 1992 secured a provision banning any non-humanitarian aid to Azerbaijan until it took "demonstrable steps" to end its blockade of Armenia. In 1993, the United States allocated $195 million to help Armenia (Armenia is in second place, after Russia, in the list of aid recipients among all post-Soviet states); Azerbaijan received 30 million dollars.

Seven opposition parties - including, in addition to the Dashnaks, the Union of National Self-Determination, led by former dissident Paruyr Hayrikyan, and the Ramkavar-Azatakan (liberals) - have criticized what they see as Ter-Petrosyan's arbitrariness and arbitrariness in governing the country and the concessions made by the Armenian leadership under pressure from foreign powers and the UN (non-recognition of the NKR, principled consent to the withdrawal of the NKR troops from the occupied ethnically Azerbaijani regions). Despite relative political stability in Armenia, the ANM's popularity is declining, largely due to the economic deprivation caused by the Azerbaijani blockade. The total volume of industrial production in the first nine months of 1993 decreased by 38% compared with the corresponding period in 1992. The hardships of life in besieged Armenia led to mass emigration, estimated at 300-800 thousand in 1993, mainly to South Russia and Moscow. The wide discrepancy in the numbers of emigrants is explained by the fact that many of those leaving have retained their propiska in Armenia.

In Azerbaijan, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh also determines the rise and fall of the fortunes of politicians. Until mid-1993, defeats in the course of the war or political crises accompanying various ups and downs of the struggle for Karabakh led to the fall of four first secretaries of the Communist Party and presidents in a row: Bagirov, Vezirov, Mutalibov (with the interim presidency of Mammadov and Gambar in May - June 1992. ), again Mutalibov and Elchibey.

The August 1991 coup in Moscow undermined the legitimacy of President Mutalibov in Azerbaijan. During the coup, he made a statement condemning Gorbachev and indirectly supporting the Moscow putschists. The PFA launched rallies and demonstrations demanding new parliamentary and presidential elections. Mutalibov urgently organized presidential elections (September 8, 1991); 85.7% of those included in the lists took part in the voting, of which 98.5% voted for Mutalibov. This result was considered by many to be rigged. The Communist Party was officially dissolved, and on October 30, the Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan, under pressure from the Popular Front, was forced to transfer part of its powers to the Milli Majlis (National Council) of 50 members, half of which consisted of former communists and the other half from the opposition. The PFA campaign to remove Mutalibov continued, with the latter blaming Russia for abandoning him to his fate. The final blow to Mutalibov came on February 26-27, 1992, when Karabakh forces captured the village of Khojaly near Stepanakert, killing many civilians in the process. Azerbaijani sources claim that the massacre, allegedly carried out with the help of Russian troops (a fact denied by the Armenian side), led to the death of 450 people and 450 were injured. The very fact of the massacres was later confirmed, among others, by a fact-finding mission of the Moscow human rights center Memorial. On March 6, 1992, Mutalibov resigned. Shortly thereafter, ex-president Mutalibov questioned the Armenians' responsibility for Khojaly, hinting that some of the Azerbaijani civilians may have actually been killed by Azerbaijani forces in order to discredit him. Yagub Mammadov, chairman of the Supreme Council, became interim head of state. The election campaign was in full swing when on May 9, 1992 the news of the fall of Shushi arrived. This made it possible for the ex-communist Supreme Soviet to annul Mutalibov's resignation, removing the blame for Khojaly from him (May 14). The Milli Majlis was dissolved. The next day, PFA supporters stormed the building of the Supreme Council and seized the presidential palace, forcing Mutalibov to flee to Moscow. On May 18, the Supreme Council accepted Mammadov's resignation, elected PFA member Isa Gambar as interim president, and transferred his powers back to the parliament, which he abolished three days ago. In the new elections held in June 1992, the leader of the PFA, Abulfaz Elchibey, was elected president (76.3% of those who took part in the vote; 67.9% in favor).

Elchibey promised to solve the Karabakh problem in favor of the Azerbaijanis by September 1992. The main points of the PFA program were as follows: pro-Turkish, anti-Russian orientation, upholding the independence of the republic, refusing to join the CIS and advocating a possible merger with Iranian Azerbaijan (a trend that alarmed Iran). Although the Elchibey government included a large number of brilliant intellectuals who had never been part of the nomenklatura, the attempt to purge the government apparatus of old corrupt officials failed, and the new people brought to power by Elchibey were isolated, and some of them corrupted in their turn. In early May 1993, popular discontent culminated in anti-government rallies in a number of cities, including Ganja, after which many members of the opposition Milli Istiglal (National Independence Party) were arrested. The popularity of Heydar Aliyev, a former member of the Politburo and later head of Nakhichevan, who managed to keep peace on the border of his autonomous region with Armenia, increased. Aliyev's "New Azerbaijan" party, founded in September 1992, became the focus of the opposition, bringing together a wide variety of groups - from neo-communists to members of small national parties and societies. Defeats in battle and covert Russian maneuvers against Elchibey led to an uprising in June 1993 led by a wealthy wool factory director and warlord Suret Huseynov (hero of Azerbaijan). The latter's triumphant peaceful campaign against Baku ended with the overthrow of Elchibey and his replacement by Aliyev. Suret Huseynov became prime minister. Aliyev revised the PFA policy: he brought Azerbaijan into the CIS, abandoned exclusively pro-Turkish orientation, restored broken ties with Moscow and strengthened the country's international positions (contacts with Iran, Great Britain and France). He also suppressed separatism in the south of the republic (the proclamation of Talysh autonomy by Colonel Aliakram Gumbatov in the summer of 1993).

Nevertheless, internal instability continued in Azerbaijan even after Aliyev came to power. The relations of the latter with Suret Huseynov soon deteriorated. Aliyev removed Huseynov from negotiating oil (and hence from appropriating future proceeds from its sale). Huseynov also appeared to be opposed to Aliyev's exit from the Russian orbit that took place during 1994. In early October 1994, after the signing of an oil contract with a Western consortium on September 20, an attempted coup d'état took place in Baku and Ganja, with some conspirators belonged to the circle of supporters of Suret Huseynov. Aliyev suppressed this coup attempt (if there was one: a number of observers in Baku describe it as an intrigue by Aliyev himself) and shortly thereafter relieved Huseynov of all duties.

Russian policy towards the conflict (August 1991 - mid-1994)

As the collapse of the USSR became a reality from August 1991 (ending in December), Russia found itself in the position of a country without a specific mission in the zone of military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, which, moreover, did not have common borders with this zone. The end of 1991 was marked by the collapse of the (temporary?) imperial ideology and the weakening of control over the army. In the conflict zones in the Soviet / Russian troops, almost all decisions were made solely by an individual officer, at most a general. The processes that began in the army as a result of the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the collapse of the USSR and the Gaidar reforms - mass demobilization, the withdrawal of troops from near and far abroad (including Azerbaijan, from where the last Russian troops were withdrawn at the end of May 1993), division as military contingents, and armaments between the various republics and the conversion of the military industry - all this aggravated the general chaos in the conflict zones. In Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and Moldova, ex-Soviet mercenaries and filibusters appeared on both sides of the front. Under these conditions, what can be called Russian policy in the region had an accidental, reactive character, which it remained until in 1992-1993. the slow increase in the controllability of the state apparatus has led to some restoration of Russia's ability to formulate and achieve its goals in relations with neighboring countries (although the factor of "hungry and angry" officers waging their local wars "on the edge of the former Soviet empire" still cannot be discounted ).

Beginning in August 1991, Russian policy towards the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh developed in the following main directions: attempts at mediation, such as those made by B. Yeltsin and Kazakh President N. Nazarbayev in September 1991, and later participation in the work of the Minsk the CSCE group, the tripartite initiative (USA, Russia and Turkey) and the conduct of independent missions, such as the one carried out by Ambassador-at-Large V. Kazimirov in 1993 and 1994; the withdrawal of Russian armed forces from the conflict zone and the distribution of the weapons left behind among the newly formed republics; an attempt to maintain a military balance in the region and prevent third-party players (Turkey and Iran) from entering their Caucasian zone of influence. With the development of economic reforms in Russia, the economic factor began to play an increasingly important role in the country's relations with the new republics. In 1993, Russia showed increasing interest in bringing Azerbaijan and Georgia into the CIS and playing the role of sole peacemaker in the former Soviet republics.

Since the Russian troops in Karabakh, which had lost their combat mission after August 1991, were in serious danger of demoralization, the withdrawal of Soviet internal troops from Karabakh (except for the 366th regiment in Stepanakert) began in November. In March 1992, the 366th regiment literally fell to pieces, as part of its non-Armenian contingent deserted, and the other part, especially Armenian soldiers and officers, captured light and heavy weapons and joined the units of the NKR.

In the field of diplomacy, Russia tried to maintain a balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, preventing one of the parties from achieving decisive superiority. According to the bilateral agreement of 1992, Russia was obliged to protect Armenia from external (it was understood: Turkish) intervention, but this agreement was never ratified by the Supreme Soviet of Russia, which was afraid of drawing Russia into the Caucasian conflicts.

According to the Tashkent Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992, signed among other countries by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, any attack on any of the parties will be regarded as an attack on all. However, less than a month later, power in Azerbaijan passed into the hands of the pro-Turkish government of Elchibey. When threats were heard against Armenia from Turkey in connection with the crisis in the Nakhichevan region in mid-May 1992, Russian State Secretary G. Burbulis and Defense Minister P. Grachev paid a visit to Yerevan to discuss specific ways to implement the collective bargaining agreement. security: it was a clear signal that Russia would not leave Armenia alone. The United States issued a corresponding warning to the Turkish side, and the Russian authorities warned Armenia against invading Nakhichevan. Turkish intervention plans were cancelled.

Another incident, in September 1993, led to a dramatic increase in Russia's role in the region. When fighting broke out again in Nakhichevan, Iranian troops entered the autonomous region to guard the jointly operated reservoir; they also entered the Goradiz point in the "continental" part of Azerbaijan, ostensibly to provide assistance to Azerbaijani refugees. According to Armen Khalatyan, an analyst at the Moscow Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, the appeal of the Azerbaijani authorities for military assistance to Turkey could provoke an armed conflict between the Turkish and Russian units guarding the Armenian border, as well as a clash with the Iranians who had already entered Nakhichevan. Baku was thus faced with a choice: either allow the conflict to escalate to uncontrollable proportions, or turn to face Moscow. Aliyev chose the latter, thus allowing Russia to regain its influence along the entire perimeter of the Transcaucasian border of the CIS, which effectively took Turkey and Iran out of the game.

On the other hand, condemning each subsequent seizure of even more territory of Azerbaijan by the NKR troops, Russia continued to supply Azerbaijan with weapons, while at the same time quietly using Armenian victories on the battlefield to ensure the coming to power of a government in Azerbaijan that would better listen to Russian interests ( i.e., the Aliyev government instead of the Elchibey government) - a calculation that justified itself only in the short term, and not in the long term. At the end of June 1993, Aliyev suspended a deal between Baku and a consortium of eight leading Western firms (including British Petroleum, Amoco and Pennsoil) to develop three Azerbaijani oil fields. The route of the proposed oil pipeline, which was previously supposed to go to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, now had to pass through Novorossiysk - at least the Russians hoped so. The Russian press assumed that the laying of this oil pipeline, if it bypassed Russia, could actually free Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and possibly even the oil-rich Muslim republics of Russia itself from Russian influence, whereas earlier the oil wealth of these regions came to the world market only through Russia.

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