Recently, my husband and I discussed the topic of how our Earth will change in many, many years, or even earlier. Especially considering the rapid human activity. The husband mentioned that there is such a thing as a "geographic forecast", and he provides answers to many such questions.
The essence of geographic forecasting
In general, a forecast is a judgment with a degree of probability about what state an object or phenomenon will have in the future, which is based on special scientific methods. Judging by the subject, it can be natural science and social science. The geographic forecast is at the intersection of these concepts, that is, it implies that we can change some moments in the behavior of the environment, while others will have to come to terms and adapt.
There are different types of geographic forecasts. Judging by the coverage of territories, it is global (for the entire Earth), regional (for large regions or countries, for example, the Baltic states or Belarus) and local (for small and mostly homogeneous territories).
One of the first global forecasts was the assumption of a change in the planet's climate due to the economic activities of people back in the 70s. The general change in air temperature, the melting of glaciers, the restructuring of the circulation of the atmosphere, in general, everything that we are seeing now, was announced.
I now live in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. However, according to the forecasts of our great minds of science, with such climate change, in ten years we will have a full-fledged steppe. And an indicator of this is the appearance in our area of species of animals and insects that are characteristic of the steppe.
What methods are used for geographic forecasting?
There are quite a few methods, they often overlap with other sciences. Here is some of them:- deductive;
- inductive;
- intersystem analysis;
- expert assessments;
- goal tree.
And this is not even taking into account that geographic forecasting includes forecasts of settlement systems, social, development of the service sector, and many others. This type of research is still in its infancy. (Document)
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4. Geographic forecasting
It is hardly legitimate to start developing recommendations for optimizing the natural environment for a more or less long term without imagining in advance how geosystems will behave in the future due to their natural dynamic tendencies and under the influence of technogenic factors. In other words, it is necessary to make a geographical forecast, the purpose of which, according to the definition of Academician V. B. Sochava, is to develop ideas about the natural geographical systems of the future. Perhaps the strongest evidence of the constructive nature of geography must lie in the ability of scientific foresight.The problems of geographic forecasting are quite complex and diverse. This was to be expected, knowing about the complexity and diversity of the forecasting objects themselves - geosystems of various levels and categories. In exact accordance with the hierarchy of the geosystems themselves, there is also a hierarchy of forecasts, their territorial scales. There are local, regional and global forecasts. In the first case, the forecast objects are the morphological subdivisions of the landscape up to facies; in the second case, we are talking about the future of landscapes and regional systems of higher ranks; in the third case, the future of the entire landscape envelope. It can be argued that the complexity of forecasting problems increases with the transition from the lower levels of the geosystem hierarchy to the higher ones.
As is known, any geosystem of a relatively lower level functions and develops as an integral part of systems of higher ranks. In practice, this means that the development of a forecast of the "behavior" in the future of individual tracts should be carried out only against the background of the enclosing landscape, taking into account its structure, dynamics, and evolution. And the forecast for any landscape should be developed against an even broader regional background. Ultimately, a geographical forecast of any territorial scale requires taking into account global trends (trends).
The development of a forecast is always guided by certain estimated dates, that is, it is carried out with a predetermined lead time. Therefore, one can also speak about the time scales of the forecast. On this basis, geographical forecasts are divided into ultra-short-term (up to 1 year), short-term proper (up to 3-5 years), medium-term (for the next decades, more often up to 10-20 years), long-term (for the next century) and super-long-term, or long-term ( for millennia and beyond). Naturally, the reliability of the forecast, the probability of its justification, is the less, the longer its estimated time is.
The principles of geographic forecasting follow from theoretical ideas about the functioning, dynamics and evolution of geosystems, including, of course, the patterns of their anthropogenic transformation. The initial bases of the geographic forecast are those factors, or predictors, on which the upcoming changes in geosystems may depend. These factors have a dual origin - natural (tectonic movements, changes in solar activity, etc., as well as processes of landscape self-development) and technogenic (hydrotechnical construction, economic development of the territory, land reclamation, etc.).
There is a certain relationship between the bases (factors) of the forecast and its spatial and temporal scales. The range of a truly comprehensive geographic forecast is limited by our more than modest ability to foresee the paths of social and technological progress (fiction writers do not count). And this means that geographical forecasts beyond the foreseeable future can only be based on taking into account the most general natural factors, such as the trend of tectonic movements and large climatic rhythms. Since these processes are characterized by a wide range of action, the spatial scale of the forecast should also be quite wide - global or macro-regional. So, I. I. Krasnov tried to outline planetary natural climate changes for 1 million years ahead, based on the studied paleogeographic patterns. V. V. Nikolskaya developed a regional forecast for the south of the Far East 1000 years ahead, also based on paleogeographic data.
The forecast for the shortest periods - within a year - is also based on natural factors, on the course of seasonal processes. For example, by the nature of winter, one can judge the course of subsequent spring and summer processes; the peculiarities of vegetation of plants in the spring of the next year, etc. depend on the conditions of moisture in this autumn. Accounting for technogenic factors is of little relevance in this case, since their indirect impact will significantly affect the structure of the natural complex only after years and even decades.
The possibility of the most complete consideration of the factors of forthcoming changes in geosystems, both natural and technogenic, is realized with medium- and partly long-term geographic forecasting, i.e., for the coming years and decades. Landscapes and their regional associations of the order of landscape sub-provinces and regions should be considered optimal territorial objects in these cases.
Geographic forecasting is based on the application of various complementary methods. One of the most well-known is extrapolation, i.e., the prolongation of trends identified in the past for the future. But this method should be used with caution, since the development of most natural processes proceeds unevenly, and even more so it is unacceptable to extend to future current rates of population and production growth, modern trends in the development of technology, etc.
The method of geographical analogies consists in transferring patterns established in some landscapes to other, but necessarily similar landscapes. For example, the results of observations on the influence of existing reservoirs on adjacent tracts and areas are used to predict possible geographic consequences from projected reservoirs in the same type (for example, taiga or desert) landscapes.
The landscape indication method is based on the use of particular dynamic features to judge the upcoming significant changes in the landscape structure. For example, a decrease in the level of lakes, the advance of forests into swamps may indicate more general trends in the development of landscapes associated with climate drying or stable trends in tectonic movements. For ultra-short-term local forecasting, the use of phenological indicators is promising. It is known that there is a fairly stable relationship between the timing of the onset of various phenological phenomena (phenological lag). This makes it possible to predict the onset of a number of natural phenomena according to the observations of some phenological indicators (for example, the beginning of dusting of alder or birch, the flowering of mountain ash or linden) up to one to five weeks ahead.
As is known, there is no such rigid determinism between geographical phenomena as exists in celestial mechanics or in a clockwork, therefore a geographical forecast can only be probabilistic (statistical). This implies the importance of methods of mathematical statistics, which make it possible to express in numerical form the correlations between the components of geosystems, the cyclical nature of processes and their trends for the estimated forecast periods.
Several years ago, both in scientific circles and among the general public, a heated discussion broke out around the proposed diversion of part of the flow of northern rivers to the south. The views of both supporters and opponents of the “turning” of the rivers were based not so much on strict scientific calculations as on emotions. Meanwhile, we are faced with a typical task of geographic forecasting: it was necessary to answer the question about possible negative consequences for the natural environment in the event of a project being implemented. And some geographical teams worked on resolving this issue, although, unfortunately, the results of the research remained practically inaccessible to the public. The problem turned out to be so voluminous that it is impossible to describe it in any detail here. We confine ourselves to just one example.
First of all, the spatial and temporal scales of such a forecast should be clearly defined. In terms of time scales, it can be defined as medium-term - in this case, the forecast for the next 10–20 years or a little further is the most relevant and most reliable. With regard to spatial scales, here we can talk about all three levels.
The local forecast affects geosystems directly adjacent to hydraulic structures - dams, reservoirs, canals. The mechanism of local technogenic impacts is relatively simple, and its range covers mainly geosystems at the level of natural boundaries. Its main manifestations are flooding and underflooding of the coastline, erosion and resurfacing of peatlands, some change in the local climate (for example, a decrease in the annual temperature amplitude by 1–2 °C). These changes will noticeably affect a strip hundreds of meters wide, but in different landscapes in different ways. For example, on the low-lying marshy lacustrine-glacial plains adjacent to the lakes Lacha, Vozhe, Kubenskoye, the level of which was supposed to be increased in the event of a project to withdraw part of the runoff from the basins of the Onega and Sukhona rivers, all natural processes associated with waterlogging will worsen. In the middle part of the segment of the Sukhona valley, the effect of flooding will almost not affect, despite the filling of the valley with a reservoir: the river is cut here to a depth of 50–60 m and the reservoir mirror would be 10–20 m below the valley edge; the banks are composed of strong Upper Permian rocks, so that their erosion should not be significant. In the upper part of the Sukhona valley, where the famous Vologda floodplain is located, a decrease in spring flood levels, a reduction in the duration of flood flooding, a decrease in groundwater, a part of flood lakes, and degradation of water meadows are expected.
All these and many other specific local consequences of hydrotechnical construction are reflected most accurately and in detail on the predictive landscape map, which conveys the expected state of natural boundaries for the estimated period (for example, by 2000 or 2010). But the solution of the problem is by no means exhausted by the development of a local forecast. It is necessary to find out whether there will be any unexpected disturbances of natural processes on a regional scale, i.e., on the territory covering the basins of the donor rivers, in particular the Northern Dvina, Onega, and Neva. Therefore, we are talking about the territory of several landscape provinces (North-Western taiga, Dvina-Mezen taiga and part of neighboring ones). In fact, predictive analysis has to involve natural processes covering even more vast areas. The withdrawal of part of the river flow sets in motion chain reactions that can affect the system of interactions between land, ocean and atmosphere.
The first impetus in this chain of processes will be the shortage of tens of cubic kilometers of relatively warm and fresh river water annually by the marginal Arctic seas (White and Barents). The further effect of this phenomenon is contradictory: on the one hand, a decrease in heat inflow should stimulate ice formation, on the other hand, a decrease in freshening by the river runoff of sea water will lead to an increase in their salinity and, consequently, will weaken ice formation (salt water freezes at lower temperatures than fresh water). It is extremely difficult to estimate the total effect of these two oppositely directed processes, but we will accept the worst case, i.e., an increase in ice cover. Theoretically, this circumstance should contribute to a decrease in the temperature of the air masses formed above the surface of the marginal seas. In turn, acting through the active circulation of the atmosphere on the land of the European North, these maritime air masses will lead to a cooling of the climate in the region (as well as to a reduction in precipitation).
This is a purely qualitative, theoretical scheme. If, however, we turn to some figures, it turns out that the technogenically conditioned component of the considered processes cannot be compared with the natural background. The flow of warm waters from the North Atlantic has a decisive influence on the ice and temperature regime of the seas washing the north of Europe. Its average annual value is more than 200 thousand km 3, while the entire volume of annual river flow into the Arctic Ocean is 5.1 thousand km 3. If the amount of river runoff withdrawal reached even 200 km 3 (and the project of the first stage provided for 25 km 3), then this would be three orders of magnitude lower than the inflow (advection) of Atlantic waters. Only annual fluctuations of this inflow, i.e., possible deviations from the average, reach 14 thousand km 3, i.e., tens or hundreds of times cover the volume of the proposed withdrawal of runoff from the northern river basins. Thus, there is no reason to expect any tangible regional, and even more so global, effect in this case. However, if we make similar calculations for the Ob basin–Kara Sea system, we will get significantly different results, because there the share of river runoff in the formation of the salt, heat, and ice regimes of sea waters is much higher, and we can expect more tangible changes in the climate of the adjacent land.
From a general scientific point of view, forecasting is most often defined as hypothesis about the future development of the object. If a person cannot influence the object of forecasting, such a forecast is called passive(e.g. weather forecast). Active the forecast implies feedback and control over the object of forecasting. Such a forecast is characteristic of geographical science.
In the most general way geographic forecasting - This is a special scientific study of specific prospects for the development of geographical phenomena. Its task is to determine the future states of integral geosystems, the nature of the interactions between nature and society.
The main operational units of geographic forecasting - space and time - are considered in comparison with the purpose and object of the forecast, as well as with the local natural and economic features of a particular region. The success and reliability of a geographic forecast are determined by many factors, including the correct choice of the main factors and methods that provide a solution to the problem.
Geographical forecasting of the state of the natural environment is multifactorial, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. These factors can be external and internal.
Classification of forecasts by aspect criteria (according to V. A. Lisichkin)
| signs | Types of forecasts and their characteristics |
| The attitude of specialists developing a forecast (predictor) to the forecast object | Active (constructive and destructive) - the predictor affects the forecast object Passive - the predictor does not interact with the object |
| The purpose of the forecast | Confirmative (affirmative) - confirm or refute hypothetical ideas about the object Planification - create a foundation for planning |
| Purpose of the forecast | General purpose Special purpose Management - to decide on the management of the facility |
| Degree of awareness and validity | Intuitive - made on the basis of unconscious methods Logical - having a rationale for methods |
| The form of expressiveness of the results of the forecast | Quantitative - with calculated parameters Qualitative - without quantitative expressions |
| The system of knowledge on which the forecasting method is based | Household - based on a simple repetition of events Scientific - based on the laws in force in the world |
| Prediction Method | Obtained by general scientific methods Obtained by interscientific methods Obtained by special scientific methods |
| Number of methods | Simplex - one method applied Duplex - two methods applied Complex - more than two methods applied |
| Predictive event lead time | Long-term: economic (10 - 13 years), development of science and technology (5 - 7 years), weather (10 - 100 days), hydrological (10 - 30 days), sea (10 days), avalanches (2 - 5 days) Medium-term - respectively 2 - 5 years, 3 - 5 years, 3 - 10 days, up to 1 day, 15 - 48 hours Short-term - respectively: up to 2 years, 1 - 3 years, 1 - 2 days, up to 1 day, 1 - 24 hours, 2 – 15 hours |
| The nature of the forecasting process | Continuous Discrete |
| The nature of the forecast object | Natural sciences and scientific and technical Economic, social and political Natural resources |
| The structure of the prediction object | Uniquely Deterministic Probabilistic |
| Object stability in time | Stationary facilities Non-stationary facilities |
| The scale of the forecasting object | Sublocal Local Superlocal Subglobal Global Superglobal |
| Number of predicted objects | Singular - forecasts of one object of the same scale Binary - forecasts of two objects of the same scale Multiplet - forecasts of more than two objects of the same scale |
| The nature of the relationship of the predicted object with other objects | Conditional - forecasts of events that will occur if other events occur Independent - will occur independently of others |
The development of geographic forecasts is a sequence of several logically interrelated stages including:
1. Statement of the purpose and objectives of the study.
2. Determination of the chronological and territorial scope of the study.
3. Collection and systematization of all information about the functioning and development of territorial systems and their functional subsystems.
4. Building a "tree of goals", choosing forecasting methods, identifying limitations and inertial aspects of the development of a predicted object or process.
5. Development of private geographic forecasts: natural resources, territorial organization of productive forces, intersectoral complexes, population and settlement systems, etc.
6. Synthesis of particular geographic forecasts.
7. Development of the main forecast options.
8. Building a preliminary forecast.
9. Examination and preparation of the final forecast.
10. Forecast correction.
11. Using the results of forecasting to solve theoretical and practical problems of geography.
Main purpose geographic forecasting is to obtain reliable data on the future state of natural and socio-economic territorial systems, providing decision-makers and organizations with the information necessary for a long-term assessment of human living conditions and the location of production.
When compiling a geographical forecast, two main questions should be investigated - how a person affects nature and how nature changed by a person affects his life and production in the future. In accordance with this, geographic forecasting is the task of identifying trends in the development of the landscape envelope of the Earth as a whole and its individual regions and components under the influence of three main factors - abiogenic, biogenic and anthropogenic.
Forecasting in general is a form of scientific foresight. A geographic forecast is a scientifically based prediction of changes in the natural and socio-economic properties of territories in the foreseeable future. Among the scientists who were at the origins of geographical forecasting, one can name I.R. Spector (1976, p. 192), who most fully defined the essence of this scientific direction. In his opinion, "a geographical forecast is a statement that fixes with an a priori estimate of probability and a given lead time the state of socio-economic and natural systems that are formed on the earth's surface in characteristic spatio-temporal intervals."
Geographical forecasting as a scientific direction arose in connection with large-scale national economic planning related to the development of natural resource potential and expert assessments of projects under development. As Yu.G. Simonov (1990), geographic forecasting originated at Moscow University in the 70s. 20th century Its foundations were developed by Yu.G. Saushkin (1967, 1968), T.V. Zvonkovoy, M.A. Glazovskaya, K.K. Markov, Yu.G. Simonov. The students-geographers of the 5th year of the Moscow State University were taught a volume course "Rational nature management and geographical forecast". T.V. Zvonkova published a textbook "Geographic Forecasting" (1987). Zvonkova (1990, p. 3) believes that "geographical forecasting is a complex ecological and geographical problem, where the theory, methods and practice of forecasting are closely related to the protection of the natural environment and its resources, planning, and project expertise." Geographers of the 60-80s past century
participated in the development of large environmental projects, their expertise, in the preparation of situational forecasts of a possible change in territorial natural and economic complexes in the direction of their optimization. Geographers were involved in the justification of projects for diverting part of the water flow of the rivers of the European North of Russia to the basins of the Azov and Caspian Seas, reconstructing the water management of the so-called Middle Region, which included Western Siberia, Kazakhstan and Central Asia. An example of the principled position of geographers is the negative conclusion of the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR on the project of the Nizhne-Obskaya hydroelectric power station. As Simonov noted (1990, p. PO-111), “the goal of the geographic assessment of rational nature management ... is reduced to an optimization problem - how to change the economic functions of the territory for the better ... assessing the degree of geographical rationality of using the territory in this case ... ". Geographic forecasting assumed: “to establish the boundaries of the change in nature; assess the degree and nature of its change; determine the long-range effect of anthropogenic change and its direction; determine the course of these changes in time, taking into account the interconnection and interaction of elements of natural systems and those processes that carry out this interconnection” (Ibid., p. 109).
Geographic forecasts can be classified according to different criteria. They can be local, regional, global; short-term, long-term and extra-long-term; component-by-component and complex; related to the study of the dynamics of natural, natural-economic and socio-economic systems.
A special place in the world and domestic geographical literature has acquired forecasts of global and rational, but associated with global forecasting processes. The impetus for forecasts of this nature for periods of 20, 50 and 100 years was given by the conclusions of the members of the Club of Rome. Not immediately, but concern about the prospects for the development of mankind in a changing world was transferred to domestic scientists and public figures.
Deep fundamental studies of climate dynamics under the influence of natural factors and human economic activity were carried out by M.I. Budyko. The problem of the impact of human activity on the climate and on the environment as a whole was formulated by him back in 1961. In 1971, he published a forecast of the upcoming global warming, but he caused distrust among climatologists. Studying natural climate changes in the geological past, Budyko came to the conclusion about the gradual loss of heat by the earth's surface due to a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the likely onset of a new epoch of glaciation in the next 10-15 thousand years. years. However, human activities are increasingly affecting climate change. It is associated with an increase in energy production, an increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and changes in the concentration of atmospheric aerosol. In a 1962 paper, Budyko noted that “an increase in energy production from 4 to 10% per year can lead to the fact that in no later than 100–200 years the amount of heat created by man will be comparable to the radiation balance of the entire surface of the continents. Obviously, in this case, there will be huge climate changes on the entire planet” (Budyko, 1974, p. 223).
Human activity has changed the direction of the process of concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide instead of decreasing to its noticeable increase. The greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide also leads to heating of the surface layer of air. The opposite process, leading to a decrease in air temperature, is associated with an increase in the dust content of the atmosphere. Budyko, the parameters of the influence of anthropogenic aerosol on the average global temperature of the surface air layer were calculated. The resultant effect of the combination of these three anthropogenic factors is “a rapid increase in planetary temperature. This increase will be accompanied by enormous climate changes, which can lead to catastrophic consequences for the national economy of many countries” (Ibid., p. 228) in the next 100 years. Budyko considered such climate change as the first real sign of “a deep ecological crisis that humanity will face with the spontaneous development of technology and the economy” (Ibid., p. 257). In Budyko's subsequent works, the concept of climate change and biospheric processes was developed on the basis of refining the quantitative parameters of the acting factors and testing the closeness of their relationship according to real observations at different latitudes of the globe. Budyko's books "Climate in the past and future" (1980), "Evolution of the biosphere" (1984) were devoted to this problem. Under the leadership of Budyko, the collective monographs Anthropogenic Climate Changes (1987) and Upcoming Climate Changes (1991) were prepared, in which Budyko's forecasts for the last decades of the 20th century were confirmed. about an increase in the average annual air temperature in the middle latitudes by 1 °C compared with the pre-industrial period, and forecasts for the 21st century were made. According to the forecast, the average annual temperature of the surface air layer will increase by 2 °С by 2025 and by 3–4 °С by the middle of the 21st century. The most significant increase in temperature occurs during the cold period.
With significant warming, an increase in air humidity, an increase in the volume of precipitation and, in general, the establishment of a more favorable environment for the development of biota on the territory of Russia is expected. But in the first decades of the new century, an increase in the frequency of droughts, returns of cold weather in the spring, and manifestations of catastrophic atmospheric processes is not ruled out.
Budyko's forecasts are based on taking into account the trend of increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, taking into account the analysis of paleogeographic information. On the basis of paleogeographic reconstructions, similar conclusions about the upcoming changes in landscape and climatic conditions in the coming periods of the coming century were obtained by A.A. Velichko and employees of the laboratory of evolutionary geography of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences headed by him. The expected anthropogenic increase in the global average temperature in the first decade of the century is close to the GS, in 2025-2030. it will become close to 2°C, and in the middle of the century the temperature increase is estimated at 3-4°C (Velichko, 1991). The degradation of permafrost will occur, the rate of rise in the level of the World Ocean will increase, the abrasion of the shores of the Arctic and other seas will become more active (Kaplin, Pavlidis, Selivanov, 2000), the structure of landscapes will gradually restructure, especially in high latitudes. The upcoming warming will initially resemble climate Atlantic optimum of the Holocene, in the future - the climate of the Mikulin interglacial.
Velichko (1992) detailed the changes in the landscapes of the European territory of Russia and Western Siberia in the first half of the 21st century. by natural areas. In particular, in the Arctic, the most likely warming is 4-6°C in summer, up to 6-8°C in winter, and an increase in precipitation by 100-200 mm. Under these conditions, the landscapes of the Arctic deserts will be replaced by tundra. Navigation conditions along the Northern Sea Route will improve incomparably; already now the thickness of the Arctic ice has decreased by 30% compared to half a century ago. In the tundra zone, a decrease in the area of swamping, an increase in the proportion of cereal vegetation is expected, in the southern limits - an increasing distribution of trees.
In the forest belt in the European sector, in the first two or three decades, it will become warmer by 1-3 °С in winter and summer and the amount of precipitation will decrease to 50 mm. The volume of river runoff will decrease by -50-100 mm, or by 15% of the norm. By the middle of the century, even deeper warming will be observed, accompanied by an increase in moisture. The river runoff will increase significantly, by 20%, and the agro-climatic potential will increase. In Western Siberia, the area of swamping will decrease.
In the steppe zone, it will become warmer by 3-5 °C in winter, but summer may turn out to be cooler; the volume of precipitation will increase by 200 - 300 mm. Cereal vegetation will be replaced by mesophilic, moisture-loving, the forest boundary will shift gradually to the south. The agro-industrial potential may increase by 40% by the middle of the century. The general conclusion on the presented forecast regarding the ratio of heat and moisture in the main territory of Russia can be expressed as follows: the living conditions of people will become more favorable. Forecasts of this type are probabilistic, that is, other conclusions are also likely.
According to the model of the general circulation of the atmosphere (Sirotenko, 1991), in the event of warming, all climatic zones can shift towards higher latitudes. The southern regions of Russia may be in the zone of influence of tropical air masses of high pressure and low moisture. And this means a decrease in the biological productivity of agroecosystems in the North Caucasus by 15%, in the Volga region by 17%, in the Central Chernozem region by 18%, in the Ural region by 22%. This conclusion is consistent with the "law" of A.I. Voeikova: “It is warm in the north, dry in the south.” But this "law" contradicts the conclusions drawn from paleogeographic reconstructions and the modern trends of simultaneous increase in temperature and increase in precipitation. This gave grounds to W. Sun et al. (2001 C 15) to state: “... we are still not able to reliably predict the climate of the future ... The scenarios of global climate change proposed so far can be interpreted only as conditional numerical experiments on climate sensitivity, but in no way not predictions. More serious research is needed.
More significant consequences for people can and do in fact entail a change in the geochemical situation in their habitat, in the nature of changes occurring in the biosphere as a whole. In many studies of domestic and foreign scientists, conclusions are drawn about an imminent environmental catastrophe associated with an imbalance in the functioning of the biosphere. “The global ecological system,” stated V.M. Kotlyakov (1991, p. 6, 7), - can no longer develop spontaneously. A conscious ordering and regulating activity is needed, which guarantees the survival of nature and mankind. There is no alternative: either the Earth will perish and we will die with it, or we will develop and observe a certain scientific and cultural code of conduct for mankind. Survival is ensured only by the reasonable management of the global natural-anthropogenic geosystem.” And further: “Any reasonable choice of managerial decisions is unthinkable without knowledge of the dynamics of natural processes, their anthropogenic transformations, the territorial distribution of resources, population, production, the limits of stability of natural and man-made territorial systems and their combination in space. All this is a traditional object of geography.”
It was concern about the prospects for the development of earthly civilization that dictated the convening of the UN International Conference on Environment and Development with the participation of heads of state and government in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and meetings in subsequent years. The concept of sustainable development of the world system based on the observance of the laws of nature was proclaimed, the essence of which was set forth in the theory of biological regulation of the environment by V.G. Gorshkova (1990). The main content of Gorshkov's theory includes the following provisions. The biosphere has powerful mechanisms for stabilizing environmental parameters due to a closed system of matter cycles. The cycles of substances exceed the natural level of environmental disturbances by many orders of magnitude, which allows it to compensate for adverse changes by opening the cycles. The main thing is to determine the threshold of biosphere stability, above which the stability of the biota and its habitat is disturbed. It has been established that the biosphere is stable as long as the consumption of primary production by humans does not exceed 1%, the remaining 99% is spent by biota on environmental stabilization. But scientists conclude (Danilov-Danilyan et al., 1996; Danilov-Danilyan, 1997) that the threshold of 1% consumption of biota products was exceeded at the beginning of the 20th century. Now the share of consumption of primary products is about 10%. With the current rates of economic development and population growth, in 30-50 years about 80% of pure biological products will be used. The biota and the environment have become unsustainable, and the ecological catastrophe has already begun.
To stabilize the conditions for the development of mankind, it is necessary to fulfill at least three conditions: the population of the Earth should not exceed 1-2 billion people; the share of the developed land should be reduced to 40, then to 30% (excluding the area of Antarctica), now the development of land by economic activity is about 60%; economic growth should not violate the basic properties of the biosphere, its stability, in particular, the volume of energy consumption should be reduced. “There is every reason to believe that the biota has mechanisms for crowding out those species that violate its stability ... This crowding out has already begun ... We need to change everything: stereotypes, economic goals, behavior, ethics. Otherwise, the biota... will ensure its stability by itself, most likely by destroying a part of itself along with humanity... The word "development" should take the same place in our lexicon as the words "war", "robbery", "murder". It is necessary to adopt laws in which calls and actions leading to the further development of the North, Siberia, and the Far East would be regarded as the most serious crimes against the peoples of Russia” (Danilov-Danilyan, 1997, pp. 33, 34).
Non-compliance with the principles of sustainability of the biosphere inevitably leads to a social and environmental catastrophe. The genetic degeneration of the population due to pollution will begin no later than the end of the first - the beginning of the second quarter of the current century. Yu.N. Sergeev (1995) predicts the peak of ecological catastrophe in Russia in 2050-2070. By 2060, 90% of fuel resources will be used up. By 2070, due to toxicants and lack of food, the population in the territory of the former USSR will be reduced to 120 million people, and life expectancy will be reduced to 28 years. Russia is able to survive the socio-ecological crisis and move towards sustainable development, as it has the necessary ethnic culture and vast land resources (Myagkov, 1995). But this is possible not on the basis of a market economy of the Western type, but on the principles of social and environmental prohibitions (Myagkov, 1996). According to V.A. Zubakov (1996), the survival of mankind and the entire animal world is possible only as a result of the world ecological revolution. Its main goal should be a consciously and voluntarily chosen reduction of the world's population to a size that guarantees an equilibrium relationship between humanity and the biosphere and, consequently, a radical solution to all economic problems. Women should become the main social force, which should manifest itself in the restoration of some elements of matriarchy in the way of life of people. The main goal of women in the society of the future should not be the process of having children in itself, but the education of a worthy member of society.
K.Ya. Kondratiev (1997, 1998, 2000). In his opinion, not everything is completely clear in the causes of modern warming. An anthropogenic cause of this process is possible, but not proven. An end to population growth and the use of natural resources is desirable. A true global catastrophe may be a violation of the isolation of cycles, already leading to the destruction of the biosphere. It is necessary to search for a new socio-economic development paradigm “based on an unprecedentedly wide cooperation of specialists in the field of natural and social sciences” (Kondratiev, 2000. p. 16) in an environment of global partnership “in conditions of democracy, respect for people and harmony between states” ( Kondratiev, 1997, p. 11).
Other views on environmental problems, more optimistic for human society, are developed by Yu.P. Seliverstov. In his opinion, “man's contribution to the replenishment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, ozone and other volatile compounds is modest compared to natural processes and does not pose a danger to civilization. Pollution does not yet create a real threat to the planet as a whole and its individual geospheres, however, elements of a global environmental risk still exist ... ”(Seliverstov, 1994, p. 9). The biosphere has not lost the ability to neutralize the waste of human activity. Mankind should not reshape the environment, but adapt to the rhythms of natural processes. “There is no global ecological crisis, just as it does not exist on the scale of the Russian Federation. There is a risk of regional environmental crises, some of which have already manifested themselves... We must take a sober look at things - stop interference in natural processes and phenomena as much as possible, be more attentive to them so that they do not take people by surprise, do not draw hasty conclusions from what is observed, especially do not evaluated by the consequences of measures to "correct" natural patterns and their earthly incarnations. It has long been known that you can’t do better than nature, but almost always worse... It’s time for humanity to extinguish the anthropocentric megalomania and permissiveness, to understand its place in the world around it, which gave birth to it and nurtured it not for experiments on its imaginary improvement, conquest and destruction” (Seliverstov, 1995, pp. 41, 42, 43). Geoecology, according to Seliverstov (1998, p. 33), is the science of compromises between nature management and ecology. "The search for the main compromise of modernity consists in a fair and unambiguous assessment of the state of the environment, the degree of its impact and damage by unnatural processes and phenomena, in providing opportunities for the rehabilitation of the environment and its return (or approximation) to the natural motive of evolution - the restoration of harmony in nature with the progress of mankind" .
Nikita Nikolaevich Moiseev (1920-1999) was a major researcher of anthropogenesis and civilizational development, a thinker, a bearer of Reason in its highest purpose. Moiseev, mathematician, academician, made a great contribution to understanding the interdependent processes occurring in the biosphere, taking into account the influence of human activity. Under the guidance of Moiseev, the country's most advanced system of mathematical models "Gaia" was created at the Computing Center of the USSR Academy of Sciences, with the help of which unique experiments were carried out on the behavior of the biosphere under various options for disturbing its natural development. The main conclusions obtained in these experiments and used for theoretical constructions are set out by Moiseev in the books "Ecology of mankind through the eyes of a mathematician", "Man and the noosphere" and a number of fundamental articles. In particular, the consequences of a nuclear war were calculated. The conclusions obtained are confirmed by independent studies by American scientists, and they have had a significant impact on softening the international confrontation between the main nuclear powers. The concept of “nuclear winter” has entered the arsenal of geopoliticians. “The results made us see the possible consequences of a nuclear war in a completely different way,” wrote Moiseev (1988, pp. 73, 74, 85). - It became clear that a nuclear conflict would lead not to local cooling and darkness under the canopy of individual soot clouds, but to a "global nuclear night" that would last about a year. Calculations on the computer showed: the Earth will be enveloped in darkness. Hundreds of millions of tons of soil raised into the atmosphere, the smoke of continental fires - ash and mainly soot from burning cities and forests will make our sky impenetrable to sunlight ... Already in the first weeks, the average temperature of the Northern Hemisphere will fall by 15 - 20 ° C below the ordinary. But in some places (for example, in Northern Europe), the drop will reach 30 and even 40 - 50 ° C ... Since temperatures will turn out to be negative on almost the entire surface of the continents, all sources of fresh water will freeze, and crops will die almost all over the globe. To this we must also add radiation, the intensity of which over vast territories will exceed the lethal dose. Under these conditions, humanity will not be able to survive.” The experiments carried out in the USSR and the USA transferred nuclear weapons, according to E.P. Velikhov, from an instrument of politics to an instrument of suicide.
Mathematical models have made it possible to trace the evolution of the biosphere under the "usual behavior" of mankind, and the conclusions do not cause optimism. A planetary crisis is inevitable. “And it is becoming more and more obvious that it is impossible to overcome the impending crisis by technical means. Waste-free technologies, new methods of waste processing, river cleaning, raising health standards can only alleviate the crisis, delay its onset, give humanity a time-out to find more radical solutions ... It should be understood: the balance of the biosphere has already been disturbed, and this process is developing exponentially . And humanity faces questions that it has never met before” (Moiseev, 1995, pp. 44, 49). It is impossible, Moiseev argued, to restore the disturbed balance by the methods that we have today. Humanity has an alternative to restoring balance: “either to move to full autotrophy, that is, to settle a person in a certain technosphere, or to reduce the anthropogenic load by 10 times” (Ibid., p. 45). A different strategy of humanity is needed, capable of “ensuring the co-evolution of man and the environment. Its development seems to me the most fundamental problem of science in the history of mankind. Perhaps our entire common culture is just a preparatory stage for solving this problem, on the success of which the very fact of the preservation of our species in the biosphere depends ... A deeper moral restructuring of the very spirit, the very meaning of human culture is necessary ”(Ibid. pp. 46, 51). The co-evolution of man and the biosphere is the provision of such human behavior that would not destroy the biosphere, its foundations. Man's dependence on nature is not decreasing, but on the contrary, it is increasing. Man must live in harmony with nature. Moiseev proclaimed the "ecological imperative" - the priority of the laws of nature, to which a person is obliged to adapt his actions. The ecological imperative of Moiseev is a certain set of properties of the environment, the change of which by human activity is unacceptable under any conditions. From this follows one of the tasks of geography - the study of the limits of the possible transformation of the biosphere, which would not lead to consequences that are irreversible for humans. Moiseev proclaimed the need to create a new moral imperative of respect not only for nature, but also for people to each other
Humanity has no prospects, developing according to the European-American model of the consumer society. The main task of science is to formulate a system of prohibitions and ways to implement them. A strict system of birth control is needed. The population should be reduced by 10 times. “The regulation of population growth, of course, will not lead to a tenfold reduction in the number of inhabitants of the planet. This means that, along with a smart demographic policy, it is necessary to create new biogeochemical cycles, that is, a new circulation of substances, which will include, first of all, those plant species that more efficiently use clean solar energy that does not bring environmental harm to the planet” (Moiseev, 1998. P. ten). “The future of mankind, the future of Homo sapiens as a biological species, depends to a decisive extent on how deeply and fully we can understand the content of the “moral imperative” and how much a person will be able to accept it and follow it. This, it seems to me, is the key problem of contemporary humanism. I am convinced that in the coming decades the level of their awareness will become one of the most important characteristics of civilization” (Moiseev, 1990, p. 248).
A person who builds the future and is eager to search is primarily interested not in surprises, but in what is more or less amenable to calculation, forecast.
Mihai Shimai
Essence and factors of geographic forecasting
From a general scientific point of view, forecasting is most often defined as hypothesis about the future development of the object. This means that it is possible to predict the development of a wide variety of objects, phenomena and processes: the development of science, a branch of the economy, a social or natural phenomenon. Especially common in our time are demographic forecasts of population growth, socio-economic forecasts of the possibility of satisfying the growing population of the Earth with food, and environmental forecasts of the future environment of human life. If a person cannot influence the object of forecasting, such a forecast is called passive(e.g. weather forecast).
The forecast can also consist in assessing the future economic and natural state of any territory for 15-20 years ahead. Anticipating, for example, an unfavorable situation, it is possible to change it in a timely manner by planning an economically and environmentally optimal development option. Exactly like this active a forecast that implies feedback and the ability to control the object of forecasting is characteristic of geographical science. For all the differences in the goals of forecasting, there is no more important common task for modern geography and geographers than the development of a scientifically based forecast of the future state of the geographic environment based on estimates of its past and present. It is in conditions of high rates of development of production, technology and science that humanity especially needs this kind of advanced information, because due to the lack of foresight of our actions, the problem of the relationship between man and the environment has arisen.
In its most general form, geographic forecasting is
this is a special scientific study of specific prospects for the development of geographical phenomena. Its task is to determine the future states of integral geosystems, the nature of the interactions between nature and society.
In geographical research, first of all, successive connections of a temporal, spatial and genetic nature are used, since it is these connections that are characterized by causality - the most important element in predicting events and phenomena, even a high degree of chance and probability. In turn, complexity and probabilistic nature are specific features of geoforecasting. The main operational units of geographic forecasting - space and time - are considered in comparison with the purpose and object of the forecast, as well as with the local natural and economic features of a particular region.
The success and reliability of a geographic forecast are determined by many factors, including the correct choice of the main factors and methods that provide a solution to the problem.
Geographical forecasting of the state of the natural environment is multifactorial, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. It is necessary to analyze these factors and select those that, to some extent, can control the state of the environment - to stimulate, stabilize or limit unfavorable or human-favorable factors of its development.
These factors can be external and internal. External factors are, for example, such sources of environmental impact as quarries and overburden dumps that completely destroy the natural landscape, smoke emissions from factory chimneys that pollute the air, industrial and domestic effluents entering water bodies, and many other sources of environmental impact. . The size and strength of the impact of such factors can be foreseen in advance and taken into account in advance in the plans for the protection of nature in a given region.
Internal factors include the properties of nature itself, the potential of its components and landscapes as a whole. Of the components of the natural environment involved in the forecasting process, depending on its goals and local geographical conditions, the main ones may be relief, rocks, water bodies, vegetation, etc. But some of these components for the forecast period, for example, 25-30 years forward, remains virtually unchanged. Thus, the relief, rocks, as well as the processes of slow tectonic subsidence or uplift of the territory can be considered relatively constant factors in the development of the natural environment. The relative stability of these factors over time makes it possible to use them as a background and framework for the forecast.
Other much more dynamic factors, such as dust storms, drought, earthquakes, hurricanes, mudflows, have the value of probabilistic quantities in geographical forecasting. Under specific conditions, the strength of their impact on the landscape and the process of economic activity will depend not only on them, but also on the stability of the natural background on which they act. Therefore, when predicting, the geographer operates, for example, with indicators of the division of the relief, vegetation cover, mechanical composition of soils, and many other components of the natural environment. Knowing the properties of the components and their mutual relations, differences in response to external influences, it is possible to foresee the response of the natural environment in advance, both to its own parameters and to the factors of economic activity. But, even having selected not all, but only the main natural components that are most appropriate for solving the problem, the researcher still deals with a very large number of parameters of the relationship of each of the properties of the components and types of technogenic loads. Therefore, geographers are looking for integral expressions for the sum of components, that is, for the natural environment as a whole. Such a whole is the natural landscape with its historically established structure. The latter expresses, as it were, the "memory" of landscape development, a long series of statistical data necessary to predict the state of the natural environment.
Many people believe that the degree of diversity of its morphogenetic structure can serve as an indicator of the stability of a landscape to external stresses, especially pollution. With an increase in the diversity of natural complexes and its constituent components, the processes of regulation intensify in natural complexes and stability is maintained. Sustainability can be disrupted by extreme natural processes and anthropogenic pressures that exceed the potential of the landscape.
Anthropogenic factors, as a rule, reducing the diversity of the landscape, reduce its stability. But anthropogenic factors can also increase the diversity and resilience of the landscape. Thus, the stability of the landscape of suburban areas with parks, gardens, ponds, i.e., territories that are quite diverse in structure and origin, is higher than it was before, when fields with agricultural monoculture crops dominated here. The least stable are natural landscapes with a simple monotonous structure that develop under conditions of extreme temperatures and moisture. Such landscapes are characteristic, for example, of desert and tundra zones. The potential instability of these territories to many types of technogenic loads is enhanced by the incompleteness of their natural complexes - the absence of soil and vegetation cover in many areas or its thinness.
