Stepan Demura, biography - who is he really?

Stepan Demura is an experienced financial market expert. However, his predictions do not always come true and in almost all cases go against the opinion of the majority of world experts.

School and student years of the expert

Stepan Demura was born in the city of the capital of Russia in August 1967. He graduated from school with success, constantly defending his position in front of anyone. From an early age, he showed assertiveness and often brought any business to a world end. In those years, the boy began to show interest in the financial system, but after school it was decided to enter the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology as a rocket engineer. But this circumstance did not affect his craving for the analysis of the financial system. The young man studied English, and the exchange system finally won his heart. Demura recalls that even then a lot of remarkable opportunities were spinning in his head, but he could not bring them to life due to financial problems.

A specialist with a red diploma was immediately noted by foreign colleagues and invited to work at a research university in Chicago. Demura agreed and went to live in America.

Work in America

After a year of internship abroad, Stepan Demura was hired by Sheridan Investments LLC, where a year later he became the head of the department dealing exclusively with global market research. The 90s became a real triumph for the expert in his professional activity:

1992 - the analyst has a lot of opportunities to implement his ideas, since this year Russia enters the world markets;

1994 - the career ladder raises Stepan higher and higher, and he becomes first a consultant, and then a leading securities trader in a state-owned American company. Soon he was offered the position of a leading analyst in the field.

Twelve years after starting his career in Stepan Demura returns to Russia.

Work at home

After returning to Moscow, the expert continues to work with the stock market. After some time, Stepan Gennadievich began to manage the property of the Russian Investment Club, being also a member of the Arlan company.

For the first time, viewers were able to see him on television in 2006. Then he tried to tell the public about his calculations on the state of the world market. According to his calculations, in 2008 a global crisis was to occur. But against the background of the general development of many industries, no one took his words seriously. But, continuing to defend his position, two years later, the expert announces a possible mortgage collapse in the United States, which will affect residents in all countries. Within a few months, his words became reality and he began to gain popularity.

The expert gives his vivid forecasts based on the Elliott wave theory, which shows the dynamics of stock exchange instruments on graphical models.

Such a promising analyst was noticed by the oligarch and the owner of the TV channel, who offered him the place of a TV presenter in two popular TV programs at once: "Dialogue" and "Markets".

However, in 2012, the TV channel had to terminate the contract with the scandalous Stepan Gennadievich, since Demura began to allow various kinds of “mistakes” on the air and often allowed himself to be expressed inappropriately.

Until 2015, after his dismissal from television, the analyst worked at Ekho Moskvy radio. There he hosted his own show. However, the project is closed, and today Stepan Gennadievich gives seminars on finance in Russia and European countries.

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Financial analyst Stepan Demura predicts a further fall in the Russian currency, the collapse of the economy and the entire state.

Moscow financial analyst Stepan Demura, unlike many experts, warned about the impending collapse of the Russian economy, the fall of both oil prices and the ruble. Now Stepan Demura says that a revolutionary situation has matured in Russia, the country's margin of safety has been exhausted, but there will be no peaceful "color revolution", and bloody events are coming. In the meantime, the ruble will continue to fall.

- How do you explain your predictive talent - is it intuition, is it experience?

“There is no talent, no intuition. You just need to understand how markets and the economy work. There is a toolkit for market analysis, these are Elliot waves, they work great, as I have been demonstrating since the mid-2000s, and Robert Prechter has been using them since the late 1970s and making very big money on it. Roughly speaking, this is the theory of crowd behavior, the so-called sociodynamics. Crowds are delusional or delusional. Markets are completely illogical from the point of view of the crowd. The modern economy is built on the fact that all investors are rational objects, that is, all their actions are rational: based on the information that they have, they make rational decisions. So the crowd or economic agents behave irrationally, and therefore the whole modern economy is a ridiculous science. The Austrians von Mises and von Hayek talked a lot about the irrational behavior of the crowd. They used this in their business cycle theories. But since these are absolutely non-kosher things in the modern economy, no one deals with them, and they are under taboo.

- You predicted the collapse of the ruble, and now the most pessimistic forecasts are being heard: for example, on the air of the Dozhd channel, having dumbfounded the host of the program, the director of the Finam company, Nikolai Solabuto, calmly remarked that by March the dollar would cost 200 rubles. Support his prediction?

– 200 while the target is not worth it. The only thing I can say is that the ruble has no bottom for technical and fundamental reasons. Now the ruble has gone on its last journey. Of course, there will be significant corrections of 10, 7 rubles per dollar, but the global direction of this trend is only down. As for two hundred, I joke in a different way, that we can easily see a situation where both oil is 150 and the ruble is 150. The reason is very simple, that the oilfield services market, and this is the maintenance of production wells, geological exploration, drilling, in Russia takes about 80 %. There were 4 large companies, now Halliburton bought Hughes, there are almost 3 left, they occupy 80% of the market, and they are under sanctions. And there is already a heated discussion in the Russian government about what they will do with their production facilities - sell them, close them, and the like. A sharp reduction in production volumes and, accordingly, oil exports will simply begin. Therefore, oil can cost 150, and foreign exchange earnings in the country's budget will be much less. Of course, oil will begin to rise, and supply on the oil market will begin to decline from Russia due to these reasons: accordingly, we can see an increase in oil and a further fall in the ruble.

- Now they are sharing on social networks links to predictions made 11 months ago by analysts who told Russians that they should not buy a dollar for 35 rubles, because the ruble will certainly grow. What should the townsfolk do, who then believed these forecasts, did not buy anything and are still hesitating, do not know whether to change or wait for the ruble to grow?

- The layman actually has an unenviable fate, since more than 90% of market participants lose money. Therefore, no matter what the layman does, he will lose money sooner or later. Even if you now tell the layman that the ruble has no bottom, buy dollars and do not pay attention to the temporary strengthening of the ruble, he may go and buy dollars, but then, when the ruble strengthens by 5-7 rubles against the dollar, he will swear at the giver this advice will go and hand over its dollars 7 rubles cheaper and, of course, after that the exchange rate will reverse, and the ruble will begin to fall again. Therefore, it is useless to give advice to people here, they will do the opposite anyway.

- In his address, Putin threatened currency speculators and, apparently, expected to stop the fall of the ruble. Naturally, he got the opposite effect right during his speech - the ruble immediately crept down.

- I even wrote in the blog at the beginning of the week, laughed: “Where is Nabiullina? She either fell asleep at the helm, or she hasn’t been beaten on the head with an oar for a long time - she rocks the boat.” Of course, the Central Bank came out and began to make some interventions to stabilize the exchange rate. Just by the time Putin began his speech, if we go into technical analysis, the ruble was falling, the ruble began to correct, the correction had almost exhausted itself, there were divergences on the five-minute charts, and the ruble was supposed to start another small slalom, which happened. And Putin's speech... Events coincided, it happens.

- Now, almost seriously, in the Duma they are proposing to denominate the ruble only for the sake of psychological effect, so that the euro is not 60 rubles, but 6. Does this seem to be a sign of complete panic?

- I call the Duma a state fool, because their initiatives would be ridiculous if they were not so terrible. One cannot seriously consider their statements or speeches of the president, because, in my opinion, they work mainly for the domestic market, for the domestic consumer, for the so-called great Russian world and are of a Balabol character. Well, they say they won’t do anything anyway, or they will do the opposite. There are a huge number of examples of this, for example, take the promise of not raising taxes on small and medium-sized businesses, which were made a year or two ago. It's like going to a madhouse and seriously analyzing the statements of the inhabitants. They mean nothing. Yes, it looks ridiculous from the outside, you can laugh at it, but if you think that these are the so-called people's deputies, the legislative branch, then it becomes very sad.

- And as for the statement of the former prime minister, and now the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Fradkov, who said that the collapse of the ruble is the actions of dark forces in the West, the United States, investment funds that are specifically engaged in speculation - are these also statements from a madhouse?

- No, it's not just from the madhouse. I would like to upset Fradkov a little more by the fact that major players, major speculators have not yet begun to withdraw from the ruble. The main blow to the ruble from the despicable speculators in 2008-2009 came precisely from the funds that invested in Russian shares: there was a powerful outflow, in my opinion, one and a half billion went away. And now the main blow, and it is just beginning to swell, comes from funds that invested in ruble bonds, which took cheap money in the West in foreign currency at low interest rates, converted it into rubles, bought both government and corporate ruble bonds and, accordingly, , on these “two percent”, as they say here, the new cool ones, and lived. Now, according to my estimates and according to the Central Bank, such investment money is about 60-66 billion dollars - this is the first. Second, you need to understand the differences in psychology between funds and managers who invest in bonds and stocks. For fund managers, a drawdown of 10 or 15% is already like death, they begin to have a nervous tic. So, if we take the dynamics of ruble-denominated corporate blue chips and government bonds and impose on this dynamics losses, ruble risk, because they have a currency balance - either the dollar or the euro, then we will find that even with the accumulated income over the past two years , they have now crossed the line of 15-20% drawdown. That is, now a mass exit from ruble bonds will begin, it is just beginning. The Central Bank has money to support the ruble, according to my estimates, somewhere from 30 to 60 billion dollars in total, according to other estimates, it turns out from 40 to 100, that is, there is no currency to support the ruble. And this will really be a powerful blow from the so-called despicable speculators, and this blow has not yet begun.

- Can we expect a blow from the other side - SWIFT shutdown? You know the statements of the head of VTB Kostin, who said that this would mean a declaration of war, and the US ambassador would have to leave the country on the same day. The anticipation of such a sanction is quite serious. Will the West decide on this?

- Hard to say. I will not invent anything here - I will leave this to the artists of the conversational genre, to all sorts of political scientists. And I have such a bad habit of reading Brzezinski's columns and his speeches, since I lived in the States for 12 years, I know English well, I even met Brzezinski a couple of times at university corporate parties. At the very beginning of what was happening, he wrote that Western leaders needed to make it clear to Mr. Putin and his inner circle that the price for their actions for them personally would be very high. Indeed, at first there appeared a list of Putin's inner circle who fell under the sanctions. Firtash flew off, they immediately took him, tied him up, now, apparently, he began to testify, hoping for a deal with the investigation, with the FBI. But this did not affect them, there was no change in foreign policy and policy towards Ukraine. Brzezinski was a bit disappointed later, he wrote that the only thing that still keeps Putin on his course is popular love. So, we will beat the people. And then the most powerful sanctions have already gone, which hit not on Putin’s circle, but on the economy as a whole. This is the cutting off of all Western capital markets, this is also work with the Chinese, which was very successful, so that if they do not join the sanctions, then at least they do not violate them. This is also work with Europeans, because, to be honest, Europeans are neither fish nor fowl, only now they have become hot. The Americans, apparently, explained to them very clearly and intelligibly what they were dealing with. But this takes time. And only now there is some confidence that the sanctions really work. They have not yet led to a change in Putin's course, they have slightly slowed down the escalation of the situation, but so far they have not changed anything. What will be the next step? Well, if you disconnect Russia from the SWIFT system, this will be a very quick painful blow, at one time such a blow was dealt to Iran. But not fatal. Because Western strategists (there are practically none there, in my opinion, with the exception of Brzezinski) underestimate what is happening in Russia, underestimate the level of manipulation of public opinion and consciousness that is taking place here. All this will be explained to the people by the intrigues of the accursed West, which hates the great Russian world for its high spirituality, something like that will be on Channel One. Therefore, this, too, probably will not lead to a change in Putin's foreign policy. But the gradual strengthening of existing sanctions in the field of mining, exploration of minerals, the banking sector, sooner or later will lead to the desired results. Because the connection between the durascope and the refrigerator cannot be established.

- Russian businessmen are furious. In the restaurant "Pushkin" now the conversations are the same as at some meeting of the "Solidarity" movement four years ago. Can the indignation of businessmen, whom Crimea has ruined or is ruining, lead to a revolt of the rich against officials, against Putin, or is this a completely unrealistic scenario?

- Everyone is corrupt, tied up, almost everyone has folders, and they are terribly cowardly. Yes, they can say something, but when it comes down to it, they are not capable of anything. This is not the contingent that is able to do something, to change the situation.

- There is an interesting version, it was expressed on our air by the American financial analyst Vitaly Katsenelson, that the Ukrainian adventure of the Kremlin was started because Putin felt the impending economic catastrophe and the fall in oil prices and decided to divert attention in this way. Sounds too good, or is it true?

- It sounds too nice. Most experts, analysts and politicians in general are now refusing to admit to themselves one simple fact. What is the management system in Russia, the country, as an integral organism, where there is a management system, which is called the vertical of power or Politburo-2? Nothing like that, I call the control system DGA - fools, fools, absurdity. Fools give orders, fools carry them out, what we get as a result is absurd, completely absurd. Putin did not have any strategy and still does not. All his tactics are very simple, boil down to the following: do something, look at the reaction. If it hurts a lot, go in the other direction. If it seems to hurt, but not hit so hard, well, we will push further in this direction. That's all. And some kind of conclusions that last more than half a move are not his strong point and not the strong point of his entourage, in my opinion. Crimea was planned, perhaps even earlier, because the Kremlin does not perceive Ukraine as some kind of independent or viable country. For example, the banners of the so-called Nedorossiya or Lugandonia were illuminated at various gatherings on Seliger in 2011 and 2012, so some part of this was being prepared. But the annexation or occupation of Crimea, I think it was Putin's spontaneous decision, because just a regime absolutely similar to him, just one in one similar, flew off in just two months. What do we have to do? When such an asshole is in the country, it means that we need to talk about patriotism, that we are great, that we get up from our knees and, of course, while there is bread and circuses, we need to throw another spectacle to the people. Here they threw it. What happened to Putin's rating? He took off into the sky. Therefore, this tactical move worked, and it was calculated on this. Although they, I think, absolutely did not calculate the consequences. They got away with Georgia, they thought that they would get away with Crimea. If the Americans had not intervened here, if Putin had not climbed into the east of Ukraine, I think that the Europeans would have forgiven Crimea too. Buzzed, buzzed, but the Crimea would be forgiven. But everything has gone too far.

- We talked about what to do to the townsfolk who were afraid to change rubles, and what to do to people, let's say, "thinking"? I see from my acquaintances: people who until recently did not even think about emigration, now do not talk about anything else at all. I know that you also advised in your public speeches to leave Russia?

Yes, I don't see any other way. I said that if by the end of 2014 pogroms do not start in Russia, then I will leave the country. They did not start, the people again ate this dish prepared by the Kremlin propagandists. And I get the impression that the country is close to passing the point of no return, after which it will cease to be a country that has any future.

– You mentioned Iran, the situation is similar there: both the broadest sanctions and SWIFT were turned off, and yet, the Iranian revolution bogged down, the government has not changed, now the sanctions are being slowly lifted, some kind of “stability” is being established for many years. Can everything end in the Iranian version in Russia as well? Or can't you compare?

- No, why, you can. Only, you see, the Iranians still had an ideological margin of safety, they are still Muslims. In Russia, there is no such margin of safety. In Russia now there is the only margin of safety from an ideological point of view - this is the fact that a significant part of the population has suddenly united against a common enemy. For some reason, our people always unite against the enemy. It is impossible to unite just like that, to do something useful for the country. With the enemy, yes. Moreover, the enemy was chosen very well: as always, he is somewhere far away, he is big and scary, his actions can be seen on your refrigerator, but he is far away, such an incomprehensible abstract enemy. And that's all, there are no other ideological bonds, there is no ideology in the country at all. Therefore, the whole question is how long and deep the sanctions will be. Because in Iran, due to the ideological margin of safety, there was no collapse of the institutions of power and social institutions. Corruption in Iran is not the worst and the biggest in the world. There is no control system in Russia, it comes down to DGA - fools, fools, absurdity. Corruption is ubiquitous, it just struck like a cancer, the state, the state machine is no longer capable of anything. The income gap is horrendous. Therefore, a revolutionary situation has been created in Russia by Putin's hands over the past 10 years, when the lower classes do not want, the upper cannot. Moreover, in Russia there are practically no political freedoms, therefore, as Putin himself correctly noted, Maidan is impossible in Russia. I agree with him, Maidan, that is, a bloodless revolution is impossible here. If you look at all these “color revolutions”, they were successful in countries where there was relative political freedom, where there really was not a funny Kremlin opposition. Somewhere they brought their results, somewhere not. Here it is impossible. That is, if Maidan is not possible here, then Tahrir will be here. It will happen sooner or later, because there is a revolutionary situation in the country, and it is only getting worse. In my opinion, sanctions are not the root cause of the deterioration of the economic situation, and of everything that is happening. The economy actually began to crumble in 2012, the ruble, if it had not fallen in 2014, would have fallen in 2015. It's just that each system has a tensile strength and a wear limit when it begins to break down and collapse. In my opinion, these limits have already been passed in Russia, and the sanctions have only highlighted the ugliness of the state machine, the state structure that exists in Russia. Therefore, there will be no peaceful way here, unfortunately.

Stepan Demura began his career in the early 90s in the USA. He gained notoriety for his early prediction of the American subprime crisis. RBC TV hosted the programs "Markets", "Dialogue", on the Finam-FM radio station - the program "Paradox".

Full name Demura Stepan Gennadievich. He himself was born in 1967. His date of birth is August 12th. As a child, he read and studied a lot. Also, teachers and classmates at school paid attention to him. In most cases, it was because he knew how to stand up for himself. That is, by the analytical method to prove to other people that you are right. Already at such a young age, he began to be interested in how the world market actually works. This is what was reflected in the life of Demur in the future.

Shortly after school, Stepan entered the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. There he devoted himself completely to the study of concepts new to him. In parallel with the main subjects of the technical cycle, he continued to study world markets in great detail. It was here that several ideas came to him that could be implemented on the stock exchanges, but the funds did not allow it to be done completely.

After he gave a lot of effort to the institute, it is not surprising that Stepan Gennadievich graduated with honors. Shortly thereafter, he moves to the US. There he was offered to study at a very respectable university in Illinois. The true name of the university is the University of Chicago. Stepan Gennadievich immediately grasped the essence of studying abroad. He had a little trouble with the language at first, as most of the people there spoke with a particular dialect, but a strong preparation at home and a very good memory helped him settle in very quickly. After that, he more than once recalled his first teachers in a foreign language, and how they taught him. Nevertheless, he learned the basics of the language himself.

To date, Stepan Gennadievich has returned to Russia and now lives in Moscow. His appearance on the financial markets was noticed back in 1992. Then the development of various systems lay to his soul. So he started as a developer of new trading systems. In 1994, his presence on the market was noticed, and they began to take a serious interest in him. In the same year, he was taken to the US Government Bonds. Stepan Demura started working there as a trader. But over time, he was promoted to the analytics of the derivatives market.

So he, with various changes in his work, gradually finalized until 2001. In 2001, Stepan Demura quits US government bonds and is temporarily left without a permanent job. At this time, he tries himself in different roles. In 2004, he entered the next more or less permanent job in Russia. At this time, they began to notice him more and more often on the Russian stock market. He works there to this day.

In 2008, he was hired by a well-known financial company called "Russian Investment Club". There he proved himself to be a very good worker in a difficult position. He was in asset management. Until that time, Stepan Demura was one of the leaders of the TPA "ARLAN". He was in charge of the analytical divisions. This company itself is developing in the direction of gold mining. With the advent of Stepan Gennadievich, the affairs of the corporation gradually began to improve.

If you remember the USA, then he worked there for a very long time. More than 12 years old. During this time, he perfectly studied their language and methods of behavior. As for the work itself, it was different for him. He first worked as a consultant. Since he was good at it, and he was quickly noticed, in the near future he moves to the position of financial engineer. In his free time, he taught at the University of Chicago. The students appreciated him very much because he showed a good understanding of the material, and most importantly, he could convey it in an easy way to the students. Now, after so many job changes, he has become a true professional in his field. Also a big role in his life was played by work on television. He appeared on screen almost every day.

Stepan Gennadievich Demura(born August 12, 1967, Moscow) - Russian financial and stock analyst, economist, former columnist and presenter of the RBC TV channel, expelled from there for being principled (apparently, at the suggestion of the owner of this media. Also worked on Finam FM radio.

Stepan Gennadievich Demura
Occupation:
analyst, trader, TV presenter
Date of birth: August 12, 1967
Place of birth: Moscow, RSFSR, USSR
Citizenship: Russia

Stepan Demura is known for a point of view independent of both neo-liberals and conservatives, which often also differs significantly from the opinion of most analysts. Particularly popular Stepan Demura's predictions began to be used during the crisis of 2008, when he predicted in advance the downturn in the US mortgage market. The analyst also warned of a fall in oil prices and the ruble exchange rate in 2014.

Was born Stepan Demura August 12, 1967 Stepan Demura graduated from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology with a degree in rocket engineer and the University of Chicago (USA, Illinois).

For over 12 years he has worked in the USA as a consultant, financial engineer, and lecturer at the University of Chicago. From 1994 to 2001, he worked as a trader and analyst in the derivatives market for US government bonds. He has been working on the Russian stock market since 2004.
Stepan Demura is a supporter of the Elliott Wave theory in the analysis of financial markets.

Stepan Demura's career on television and radio

In Russia Stepan Demura made a career on television as the host of financial programs on RBC, but was fired for remarks about colleagues in unprofessionalism (the channel's management considered that he had violated professional ethics):

“I have an offer for Mr. Lyubimov, since he is a businessman. We have 9 people in the Financial News program who analyze the market. Why not make a little competition between all of us? We all express our point of view on the market. The conditions are very simple - one trade per week is allowed, since we are all talking about medium-term trends. What's the point - people will be more responsible in what they say about the market. Because, according to the results of the quarter, two from the list who made the smallest percentage go to work in Morning with Dana Borisova, they have 10 percent deducted from their salaries, which go to the next quarter, to the one who won first place. This is discipline. Because every time you try to open a trade, you will think - for a change. And when you start thinking, there will be less rubbish and less bazaar on the air. »