BREATHING EXERCISES Taking the full breath as a basis, it is useful to perform special breathing exercises. Here are some of them. Cleansing Breathing While inhaling slowly and completely, hold the air for a short while and then exhale it with short and strong pushes.

• Types of breathing
• YOGA
• BODYFLEX
• BUTEYKO RESPIRATORY SYSTEM
• REBEFING
• VAYVATION
• HOLONOTROPIC BREATHING

The first thing a baby does after birth is to take a deep breath. The lungs expand and the baby lets out its first cry. This is a good sign, indicating that the baby was able to survive childbirth and is entering a new life. After that, he does not stop breathing until his death. Breathing is a natural process. We take a deep breath of fresh air, hold our breath for unpleasant odors or under water. Anxious moments in movies or books leave us breathless. Or we try not to breathe during the first kiss. However, in ordinary life, people do not pay attention to how they breathe. The process goes by itself, as it should. But proper breathing can bring our body into harmony, get rid of fullness, from multiple diseases. This is a whole science that needs to be learned. There are several breathing practices. If you master them, you can get rid of spiritual and physiological problems. It's amazing that something as natural as breathing can change our lives so much.

The benefits of breathing exercises

It is impossible to live long without breathing. Even our ancestors correlated this process with the soul. And the very word "breath" is similar to the word "soul". It is the breath that connects our spiritual state with the physical incarnation. It is breathing that allows us to understand our psyche. based on this connection, they help to achieve harmony between body and soul. If you learn how to breathe correctly, you can be cured of many diseases. This is diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, and sexual dysfunction. Naturally, breathing practices can improve the performance of the respiratory system. Another positive quality of exercise - opportunity to lose weight. Many overweight girls have been able to lose those extra pounds thanks to proper breathing. Unfortunately, most people do not take this process seriously, do not believe in the benefits of breathing exercises. But the result of proper breathing is simply stunning.

Types of breathing

To obtain oxygen and release carbon dioxide, we use the respiratory organs - the nasal cavity, trachea, bronchi, lungs, etc. Sometimes some organs perform the function of others, for example, with a cold, when the nose is blocked, we inhale air through the mouth. Although we use the same complex of organs of the respiratory system, we breathe differently. Breathing can be

YOGA

Yoga is a system of exercises that allows a person to learn to control the spiritual and physiological functions of the body. This system operates with the concept of "prana". The Vedas and Upanishads, the oldest Hindu texts, speak of prana. There is food and breathing prana that allows you to maintain human life. Breathing exercises in yoga are called Pranayama - the fourth level of Ashtanga yoga. With the help of breathing, you can learn to control prana.

Yoga technique is mixed or full breathing. It is characterized by the opening and ventilation of the lungs. Breathing practice allows you to achieve the following results:

• excellent ventilation of the lungs;
• saturation of the body with oxygen;
• pressure reduction;
• improved metabolism;
• restoration of the nervous system;
• increased immunity.

Moreover, when performing breathing practice, your body is filled with life-giving prana, you gain balance and harmony.

First you need to sit in Turkish, facing north (south for women), close your eyes and straighten your back. At the same time, the hands are on the knees, and the fingers are collected in Jnani mudra. First, exhale deeply so that the air completely leaves the lungs. You need to start with abdominal breathing. To do this, stick out your stomach. Feel the lower part of your lungs open up. Then comes the middle breathing - the chest rises, the air fills the middle part of the lungs. After that, lift your shoulders, fill the upper part of the lungs with oxygen. In this case, the stomach needs to be pulled in a little. When exhaling, the shoulders and chest drop. The breathing itself should be smooth and even. You should not exert effort or strain the internal organs. Feel what muscles work with each stage of breathing. Focus on prana, on the life-giving energy that fills your body with every breath. The breathing exercise includes 3-14 complete inhale-exhale cycles.

BREATHING GYMNASTICS STRELNIKOVA A.N.

Breathing exercises are a set of exercises that can fight against many ailments. Among them are bronchial asthma, and cardiovascular diseases, and diseases of the central nervous system, and deformities of the spine or chest. Strelnikova's technique is based on gas exchange. More air enters the lungs than usual, so gas exchange in the blood is stimulated. The exercises involve not only the respiratory system, but also the diaphragm, head, neck, and abdominals. Gymnastics involves the whole body, so its beneficial effect is so great.

Strelnikova's set of exercises is quite extensive. We will give three introductory exercises as an example.

• "Palms"

Breathing is like clapping your hands. You need to take 4 breaths through your nose, while exhaling through your mouth. Inhalation should be noisy and deep, and exhalation should be imperceptible and quiet. Every 4 breaths there is a pause of 3-5 seconds. Then the exercise is repeated. When inhaling, you need to clench your hands into fists, while resting, your hands fall. In total, 24 exercises of 4 breaths should be done. Shoulders and stomach are not involved in breathing. This exercise can cause slight dizziness. Then the pause between sets should be increased to 10 seconds.

This exercise involves 8 breaths in a row, without any stop. After the breaths, a short break for 4-5 seconds follows, after which the exercise is repeated again. "Shoulders" are performed while standing, hands should be pressed to the stomach. The fingers are clenched into fists. On exhalation, a sharp push is made with the hands to the floor without the participation of the shoulders. The arms should be fully extended. During exhalation, the hands are again pressed against the stomach. The exercise should be repeated 12 times for 8 breaths.

• "Pump"

Exercise should be done while standing. We lean towards the floor. In the middle of the tilt, a breath is taken through the nose, which ends with the tilt. Then you need to straighten up, bend over again and inhale. The exercise is performed 12 times for 8 breaths. After each figure eight rest 4-5 seconds.

Strelnikova's gymnastics also includes other exercises that involve the legs, neck and head. Some exercises need to be done while standing, others can be done while sitting. have an amazing effect on the body, but you need not to overdo it. Be sure to pause between sets, otherwise gymnastics can only do harm.

BODYFLEX

This technique is incredibly attractive in women. After all, it allows lose extra pounds without resorting to exhausting diets or exercise. Its author Greer Childers is a woman who lost weight after giving birth with just breathing. It takes only 15 minutes a day, but the benefits of exercise are much greater than those of diets and sports. This technology is suitable for women who do not have time for the gym or do not have the opportunity to go on a diet. The basis of the method is aerobic breathing and stretching. When exercising, the body is saturated with oxygen, which burns fat, and the muscles tense up and become elastic. Bodyflex is designed for people of any age. Breathing techniques for weight loss are best done in the morning, but any time will do. The main thing is 2 hours after eating.

Bodyflex includes several exercises, each of which allows you to fight excess weight, sagging skin or wrinkles. The breathing technique is performed in a certain position - as if you are going to sit on a chair. The pelvis needs to be taken back, put your feet shoulder-width apart, bend over and rest your hands on your hips. Then slowly exhale through the mouth, quickly and sharply inhale through the nose. After that, the air must be pushed out of the lungs with force, straining the diaphragm. Then we draw in the stomach and count to ourselves to 10. Now you can inhale.

In combination with stretching and exercises on the muscles of the face, an incredible effect is achieved. Centimeters are reduced, and the body becomes elastic and flexible.

BUTEYKO RESPIRATORY SYSTEM

Novosibirsk doctor Konstantin Buteyko uses a completely different technique. According to his research, diseases do not occur due to a lack of oxygen in the body, but because of its excess. We release carbon dioxide that we think is harmful too quickly, so disease appears. According to Buteyko, shallow breathing should be practiced. His method allows you to get rid of bronchial asthma, diabetes, heart disease and metabolic disorders.

Gymnastics should be performed under the supervision of a specialist. To prescribe exercises, you need to undergo an assessment of lung function, measure the pulse, and calculate the control pause. The latter represents the time from inhalation to the subsequent desire to inhale. The normal control pause is 60 seconds or more. Another reason to exercise under medical supervision is the cleansing response. A person may feel unwell, accompanied by fever, vomiting and pain. However, Buteyko calls to consider this effect as a norm. Although modern scientists disagreed. Some believe that the technique is dangerous for the respiratory center, and British scientists consider shallow breathing effective and efficient.

LEO KOFFLER'S THREE-PHASE BREATHING SYSTEM

Leo Kofler is an opera singer. He developed his technique at the end of the 19th century. Then Kofler suffered tuberculosis, because of which he left the stage. To get back to what he loves, Kofler developed set of breathing exercises which allowed him to get rid of tuberculosis. His three-phase breathing system allows you to recover not only from consumption, but also from other lung diseases. This technique was supplemented, after which it was called the Kofler-Lobanova-Lukyanova method. The basis of the respiratory system is the training of the respiratory apparatus.

Three-phase breathing begins with exhalation. Only half of the air comes out of the lungs, then a pause follows. The pause must be kept until the body has a desire to inhale. After that, inhale through the nose and exhale. There is no pause between inhalation and exhalation. Exercises should be performed while standing, straightening your back.

This complex helps to train a uniform exhalation. Also, the Kofler-Lobanova-Lukyanova method includes the elimination of nasal overtones, the development of the muscles of the pharynx and an economical exhalation. The system allows you to expand the volume of the lungs, learn to sing or speak while performing rhythmic movements. This is especially true for singers who, during performances, must both dance and sing at the same time. Also, the technique allows you to cope with pulmonary diseases.

REBEFING

American Leonard Orr created a technique to get rid of negative thoughts. The term "rebirthing" itself comes from the English "rebirthing", which means "rebirth". According to Orr, a person experiences a birth trauma, which is deposited in the subconscious, negatively affecting his subsequent life. With the help of breathing, Orr offers to get rid of this trauma, as well as negative events that have an overwhelming effect on us. Rebirthing is a deeper method that includes not only breathing techniques, but also philosophy, a positive attitude. But this technique is controversial, because so far there have been no studies confirming its effectiveness.

Exercises should be performed under the supervision of a professional, but then, when a person learns to breathe correctly, you can do them yourself. This breathing technique for relaxation combines the frequency and depth of breathing, each exercise corresponds to a different psychological state. For example, slow deep breathing is designed to reduce negative emotions, to allow the body and mind to relax. And fast shallow breathing crushes all experiences so that you can quickly get rid of them. Exercises need to be performed to special music, setting yourself up in a positive way.

VAYVATION

The rebirthing technique was perfected by Jim Lenard and Phil Louth. They also believed that a person should be freed from negative experiences. But at the same time, you need to help him cope with the experiences that appear during the breathing exercises. The English word "vivation" has the Latin root "viva". Viva means "life". The technique involves a calm and free cycle of inhalation and exhalation, between which there is no pause. If the inhalation is through the mouth, then the exhalation will be through the mouth. If a person inhales through the nose, then he should exhale in the same way. Vaivation includes three classes of breathing - deep slow, deep fast and shallow fast. This technique allows a person to realize himself in the world with his feelings, to achieve harmony. There are 5 elements in total:

HOLONOTROPIC BREATHING

The method was developed by Stanislav and Christina Grof in the 1970s. Their discovery was connected with the prohibition of LSD, and at that time, many of Stanislav's studies were based on the expansion of consciousness. Holotropic breathing is shallow breathing. As a result, carbon dioxide is washed out of the blood, which causes vasoconstriction of the brain. This contributes to the appearance of hallucinations, memories from the past. As a result, a person is able to move to the transpersonal level. Holotropic Breathwork has been widely criticized because of the potential for brain cells to die during exercise. Breathing itself does not have a clear instruction - it is more frequent than normal breathing and more superficial. The technique is performed in pairs - one breathes, and the second performs the function of a sitter. During holotropic breathing sounds specific music designed to move to the transpersonal level. One session lasts about two hours.

RESPIRATORY SYSTEM ACCORDING TO Yu.I. PERSHINA

The basis of the Pershin method is the improved methods of Kofler, Buteyko and Strelnikova. The respiratory system allows you to saturate the internal organs with oxygen, because. the amount of carbon dioxide in the blood increases. The technique helps to get rid of headaches, allergies, toxins, fights sciatica, heart disease and overweight. Breathing according to Pershin should be shallow, a pause is made between exhalation and inhalation, which allows you to increase the amount of carbon dioxide in the blood. Exhalations and inhalations are carried out through the nose. The system includes exercises for different zones - the genital area, the spine area, the cervical region, and so on. The set of exercises is quite large.

Many breathing techniques modernize or repeat existing ones. For example, the Bulanov method takes the Buteyko system as a basis, but makes it more rigid. The pause between exhalation and inhalation is as long as a person can withstand, close to suffocation. Method E.V. Streltsova is based on yoga breathing. A significant part of the exercises is performed only under the supervision of specialists, otherwise breathing practices can harm.

General principles of breathing exercises

If you have settled on the system that you can perform on your own, then you should follow a few rules in order for the exercises to be effective.

Proper breathing really works wonders. But before choosing a set of breathing exercises for yourself, you should consult with a professional. There may be a specific technique for you. Do not be skeptical about breathing exercises. This technique has been known since ancient times, it really allows you to get rid of mental and physical ailments. The main thing is a competent approach.

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Social forecasting is a kind of research, the result of which is the scientific prediction of the course of social processes, changes in the system of social relations, the transformation of social objects and their structures, the dynamic development of social systems.

Foresight is a general concept that unites all varieties of obtaining information about the future. Scientific foresight is based on knowledge of the laws governing the development of nature, society, and thought; the intuitive is based on the premonitions of a person, the ordinary is based on the so-called worldly experience, related analogies, signs, etc .; religious - on the belief in supernatural forces that predetermine the future.

The result of scientific foresight is a forecast. A forecast is a probabilistic statement about the future with a relatively high degree of certainty.

Foresight affects two interconnected sets of forms of its concretization: relating to the category of foresight itself - predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) and associated with it, relating to the category of management - pre-indicative (prescriptive, or prescriptive). Prediction implies a description of possible or desirable prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society. The specificity of social forecasting lies in the fact that the prediction of social phenomena and processes and their management are closely related. Social forecasting directly or indirectly serves to improve the efficiency of social management and regulation of social processes.

TYPES OF SOCIAL FORECASTING (forecasts).

The typology of forecasts can be built according to various criteria depending on the goals, objectives, objects, subjects, problems, nature, lead period, methods, organization of forecasting, etc. The problem-target criterion is fundamental: what is the forecast for? Accordingly, two types of forecasts are distinguished: exploratory (they were previously called research, exploration, trend, genetic, etc.) and normative (they were called program, target).

Search forecast - determination of possible states of the phenomenon in the future. This refers to the conditional continuation into the future of the trends in the development of the phenomenon under study in the past and present, abstracting from possible decisions, actions on the basis of which can radically change the trends, cause in some cases the self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast. The search forecast is built on a certain scale (field, spectrum) of possibilities, on which the degree of probability of the predicted phenomenon is then established. Such a forecast answers the question: what is most likely to happen if the existing trends continue?

Normative forecast - determination of the ways and timing of achieving the possible states of the phenomenon, taken as a goal. This refers to predicting the achievement of desired states on the basis of predetermined norms, ideals, incentives, and goals. With normative forecasting, the same probability distribution occurs, but in the reverse order: from a given state to observed trends. Such a forecast answers the question: what are the ways to achieve the desired?

According to the lead period - the period of time for which the forecast is calculated - operational (current), short-, medium-, long- and long-term (super-long-term) forecasts are distinguished. Operational, as a rule, is designed for the future, during which no significant changes in the object of study are expected - neither quantitative nor qualitative. Short-term - for the prospect of only quantitative changes, long-term - not only quantitative, but mostly qualitative. The medium term covers the prospect between the short and long term with a predominance of quantitative changes over qualitative ones, the long term (super long term) - the prospect when such significant qualitative changes are expected that in essence we can only talk about the most general prospects for the development of the object.

According to the time criterion, short-term (operational), medium-term (tactical) and long-term (strategic) PS are distinguished. In the social sciences, short-term forecasting is considered to be 1-2 years, medium-term - up to 5 years, long-term - up to 10 - 15 years.

Operational forecasts contain, as a rule, detailed-quantitative assessments, short-term - general quantitative, medium-term - quantitative-qualitative, long-term - qualitative-quantitative and long-term - general qualitative assessments.

METHODS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING. Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future:

Assessment of development prospects, the future state of the predicted phenomenon based on experience, most often with the help of analogy with fairly well-known similar phenomena and processes;

Conditional continuation into the future (extrapolation) of trends, the patterns of development of which in the past and present are quite well known;

A model of the future state of a particular phenomenon, process, built in accordance with the expected or desirable changes in a number of conditions, the development prospects of which are quite well known.

In connection with the sources of information, the main methods of forecasting are distinguished. 1. EXTRAPOLATION is based on the extension of the conclusions made in the study of one part of any phenomenon (process) to another part, including the unobservable. It is based on the assumption that some trends in the development of a social object, which have manifested themselves in the past and present, persist in the future.

2. MODELING. The method of studying objects of knowledge on their analogues - material or mental.

3. EXPERTISE. It is used in the study of questions with a low level of parameter certainty. This is a study of a problem that is difficult to formalize, which is carried out by forming the opinions of a specialist (expert) who is able to make up for the lack or non-systematic information on the issue under study with his knowledge, intuition, experience in solving similar problems or relying on common sense.

Mathematical Methods

Examples and the need for forecasts in social work

Social design as a technology for the implementation of social changes. The concept, typology and content of the social project.

Social design is a type of activity that is directly related to the development of the social sphere, the organization of effective social work, and the overcoming of various social problems. Social design is the construction by an individual, group or organization of an action aimed at achieving a socially significant goal and localized in place, time and resources.

A social project is a social innovation constructed by the initiator of the project, the purpose of which is the creation, modernization or maintenance of a material or spiritual value in a changed environment, which has spatio-temporal and resource boundaries and whose impact on people is recognized as positive in its social significance.

The essence of social design is the design of a desired future.

Subjects of social design:
Legislation (since 1995)
Service
New St. in an old thing
new thing
Some organization (social services, rehabilitation center)
Non-material property of a thing (fashion. Advertising, image)
Events (charity, social action)

Typology of projects.
Normal project type is the conventional name of the project, which corresponds to 4 features: quality, resource provision, implementation time, project scale.

According to the nature of the projected changes:

Innovative project (implementation of fundamentally new developments), supporting (solving problems of an ecological nature, including within the framework of the ecology of culture.).

By directed activities:

Educational (tasks mainly related to the provision of educational services.), Scientific and technical, cultural (artistic, symbolic, exotic, etc.).

According to the features of finance:

Investment projects (Investment is the contribution of property to a business with the aim of making a profit.), Credit project, sponsorship, charity, budget, grants (A. Nevsky, Vernadsky, Yashin, Lomonosov, Tsiolkovsky).

By scale of implementation:

Micro project (an individual initiative that received support and approval from the outside)
Small project (do not include too many consumers, are quite easy to manage, do not require large financing.)
Mega project (Mega projects are usually targeted programs consisting of interrelated projects.)

By implementation time:

Short-term (Typically, short-term projects take about a year to complete, two years at the most.)
Medium-term (Usually medium-term projects are implemented in 3-5 years)
Long-term (Such projects are carried out for 10-15 years.)
According to the prestige of consumption:

Prestige projects (promotion of consumer goods)
Pseudo-projects (quasi-projects that have all the signs of project norms, but the proposed innovations are not really such)
Fiction-projects

INTRODUCTION

1.1. The concept of social forecasting

1.2. Methods of social forecasting

2.1. The concept of social foresight

2.2. Types of social foresight

3.1. The concept and forms of intuition

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

CONCLUSION

List of used literature

Introduction

Foresight, as one of the most important forms of anticipatory reflection of reality, was inherent in mankind at all stages of its existence, starting from the moment it appeared on the historical arena. However, it developed in forms that reflect prescientific experience and methods for predicting the future, and which still exist today in the form of clairvoyance, insight, divination, prophecy. It is these forms of foresight that are exploited by astrology, psychics, quackery and hysteria, based both on scientific data and on arbitrary conjectures.

Elements of the science of the future - futurology - were developed in the ancient world (for example, Thales predicted a solar eclipse in 585 BC). As knowledge was enriched, events or phenomena that would inevitably take place were predicted (and came true) more and more often.

The term futurology was proposed in 1943 by the German sociologist O. F-lechtheim as the name of a certain supra-class "philosophy of the future", which he contrasted with ideology and utopia. In the early 1960s, this term became widespread in the sense of "the history of the future", "the science of the future", designed to monopolize the predictive functions of existing scientific disciplines. Since the late 1960s, the term futurology, due to its ambiguity and uncertainty, has been supplanted by the term research into the future.

The purpose of this work is to study intuition and its role in social foresight.

The following tasks follow from the goal:

Expand the concept of social foresight;

Consider intuition and its role in social foresight;

Analyze the forms of intuition in social foresight.

The object of research is intuition. The subject of research is the role of intuition in social foresight.

Research methods include - analysis and generalization of the role of intuition in social foresight based on the study of information materials.

When writing the work, book publications were used, recommended by the Educational and Methodological Center as textbooks and teaching aids of 1997-2007 editions, which contain the main educational material. They reveal the most important theoretical and methodological issues of social forecasting and foresight, reveal the concept and meaning of intuition, as well as its role in social foresight.

CHAPTER 1. SOCIAL FORECASTING

1.1. The concept of social forecasting

Social forecasting is one of the main areas of specific social research, a special object of which is the prospects for the development of specific social processes. In a broad sense, it covers all processes associated with the life of human society (as opposed to natural, technical, biological processes of a spontaneous, “spontaneous” nature, for example, weather forecasts, crop yields, earthquakes, the course of a disease, etc.), and includes includes the prospects for the development of social aspects of science and technology, economics, social relations, demographic and ethnic processes, health care and physical culture, public education, urban planning, literature and art, state and law, domestic and foreign policy of states, international relations, military affairs, further exploration of the Earth and space. Accordingly, there are scientific and technical, biomedical, socio-economic, military-political and geocosmic areas of social forecasting. In a narrow sense, the latter is usually identified with sociological forecasting - the study of the prospects for the development of social relations proper. Philosophical and methodological problems form a special direction: epistemology and the logic of scientific foresight, methodology and methodology for developing forecasts.

In modern conditions, the issues of scientific foresight in solving specific long-term problems of a scientific, technical, socio-economic, military-political nature are of particular importance.

The efficiency of forecasting social processes in economic terms is very significant. Even 40 years ago, some American firms were able to double and triple the sales of their new products (and hence their profits) only by quickly taking into account the data contained in forecasts that were developed by their own research institutions or bought from firms - “forecast traders”. Every dollar invested in developing forecasts turns into fifty dollars of net profit in a short time. At the same time, it was discovered that a well-established forecasting service can significantly reduce the time for developing various plans, programs, projects, decisions and, most importantly, can significantly increase their scientific level, and hence their effectiveness.

Among the distinctive features of social forecasting are:

The formulation of the goal is relatively general and abstract (allowing a high degree of probability);

It does not have a directive character - the forecast provides information to justify decisions and choose planning methods.

Ospecific methods: complex extrapolation, modeling, the possibility of conducting an experiment.

The object of social forecasting can be all social systems, all phenomena occurring in society.

The experience of past years and the scientific achievements of the present make it possible to carry out forecasting, i.e., scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of specific social processes with particular accuracy.

Research in the field of social forecasting is being developed in full measure. Already now, on their basis, it is possible to draw a number of conclusions about individual contours of the near future.

1.2. Methods of social forecasting

Social forecasting is the definition of development options and the choice of the most acceptable, optimal, based on resources, time and social forces that can ensure their implementation. Social forecasting is work with alternatives, a deep analysis of the degree of probability and the multivariance of possible solutions. It is connected with the prediction of the directions of development of the phenomenon in the future, by transferring to it the idea of ​​how the phenomenon develops in the present.

Forecasting is based on three complementary sources of information about the future: extrapolation in the future of trends, patterns of development that are well known in the past and present; modeling of research objects, their presentation in a simplified form, a schematic form, convenient for obtaining predictive conclusions; predictive assessment of an expert.1

One of the first methods that became widely used in forecasting was the extrapolation method. Its essence is the construction of dynamic (statistical or logical) series of indicators of the predicted process from the earliest possible date in the past (retrospective) up to the date of establishment (prospect) of the forecast.1 With this approach, the choice of the optimal type of functions (taking into account time, conditions, etc.) d.). A great effect is the use of complex extrapolation formulas, the conclusions of probability theory, game theory, etc.

With social forecasting, the possibilities of extrapolation are limited, since social processes develop along curves that are close to a logical function. One way to test the reliability of this method may be to extrapolate growth curves "to the point of absurdity".

Expert methods are widely used in forecasting, ranging from analytical notes and meetings in order to agree on opinions and develop informed decisions to special expert assessments designed to give an objective description of the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the forecasting object based on the processing and analysis of a set of individual expert opinions. The quality of an expert assessment, its reliability and validity depend to a decisive extent on the chosen methodology for collecting and processing individual expert values, which includes the following steps:

Selection of the composition of experts and assessment of their competence;

Drawing up questionnaires for interviewing experts;

Obtaining expert opinions;

Evaluation of the consistency of expert opinions;

Assessment of the reliability of the results;

Drawing up a program for processing expert opinions.

The solution of such a difficult task as forecasting new directions is necessary to determine the prospects, trends, and requires more advanced scientific and organizational methods for obtaining expert assessments.

One of them is the method of the Delphic oracle or the Delphi method. The forecasts obtained using this method are based on research and objective knowledge of the object, taking into account the objective views and opinions of the respondents regarding this future. In this case, intuition plays a big role, which can suggest the right decision, as it is based on the expert's extensive experience. An intuitive approach does not always lead to the desired results and most often the forecasts turn out to be erroneous. Basically, it is suitable for making short-term forecasts, predicting local events. But the use of this method of expert assessments in any of its variants for long-term, comprehensive and global social foresight increases the reliability of forecasts. Among the shortcomings of this method, the following are noted - the bulkiness and the need for highly qualified experts.

An important role in social forecasting is played by the Oedipus effect, i.e. the possibility of self-fulfillment or self-destruction of the forecast, if the creative activity of people is connected to this process, during which positive warnings and threats are realized or eliminated. The conclusions obtained in the process of this forecast contribute to the awareness and understanding of the prospects for this or that event and the need to develop measures to prevent this forecast from taking place.

Forecasts have the ability to self-realization, but only if they form a single chain of needs and interests of people both at the level of social, industrial, and their personal lives. The experience of forecasting and implementing forecasts shows that their value is also associated with the ambiguity of approaches to solving social problems, with the depth of analysis of the degree of probability of possible changes.

A huge role in social forecasting is played by morphological synthesis, which involves obtaining systematic information on all possible parameters of the problem under study.1 This method assumes the complete absence of any preliminary judgment or discussion. It answers the following types of questions: what tools are needed to obtain forecast information; what is the sequence of events; how to trace the application of all means, or all methods, or all stages of solving a given problem? Particularly significant in this method is the requirement that no opportunity be missed without a preliminary exhaustive study.

Among the methods used in social forecasting, forecasting scenarios play a significant role. With their help, a logical sequence is established in order to show how, based on the real situation, the future state of the object of study, social process or phenomenon can unfold step by step. The main significance of the forecast scenario is associated with the definition of development prospects, its main line, as well as the identification of the main factors of the development background and criteria for assessing the levels of achievement of goals.

Predictive graphs are also used, which can be directed or undirected, contain or not contain cycles, be connected or unconnected, and so on. Together with the goal tree, they determine the development of the object as a whole, participate in the formulation of forecast goals, the scenario, in determining the levels and criteria for the effectiveness of forecasts.

The method of modeling (optimization of decisions) is widely used in social forecasting, which is associated with the search for development alternatives, which makes it possible to select the best option for given conditions. The task of choosing the optimal option for long-term prospective development requires determining the optimality criterion , which should reflect the efficiency of the system and have a simple mathematical expression. Among the methods for solving optimization problems, linear programming is widespread.

All mathematical models and forecasting methods are probabilistic in nature and are modified depending on the duration of the forecasting period. The use of models increases the efficiency of forecasting, allows you to consider a large number of possible options and choose the most appropriate one. The negative features of modeling are the lack of accuracy and elasticity of models in forecasting, especially for a long period.

The process of social forecasting can be presented step by step as follows1:

1. choice of the object of social forecasting;

2. choice of research direction;

4. choice of a forecasting method, one of the methods or a set of methods in a certain sequence that meets the requirement of scientific research;

5. actual predictive research;

6. processing of results, analysis of the information received in relation to the research problem;

7. determination of the reliability of the forecast.

Social forecasting is based on various methods for studying the objective patterns of scientific, technological and social progress, as well as modeling options for future development in order to form, justify and optimize promising solutions.

CHAPTER 2. SOCIAL FORESIGHT

2.1. The concept of social foresight

In modern scientific literature, scientific foresight is usually divided into natural science (prospects for the development of nature as a whole or its individual phenomena) and social (prospects for the development of the individual and society).

Foresight in the scientific literature in most cases is interpreted in two senses:

a) as a prediction of certain events;

b) as preferable knowledge about events and phenomena that exist, but are not fixed in experience.

This is a contradiction when a phenomenon or event exists (or their existence is possible), but, not being reflected in experience, gives rise to pre - and unscientific forms of foresight based on the subconscious, on life observations and possible options for turning human destinies.

Special mention should be made of pseudoforesight (prophecy, divination, "revelation", divination), when its bearers try to claim such forms of advanced knowledge that are unknown to science, but which are inherent in individual individuals due to their personal characteristics of consciousness and behavior. Thus, astrology seeks to interpret experience in a peculiar way, paying attention to the fixation of recurring events in physical space (when determining the location of the luminaries). But the signs of the Zodiac, the luminaries, multiplied by the diversity of human destinies, give so many options for the development of events that the coexistence of scientific and non-scientific explanations becomes not only possible, but also successfully competing.

Since ancient times, there have been words in every language that denote different shades of judgments about the future: prophecy, divination, divination, anticipation, foresight, prediction, etc. At different times, the meaning of each of these words had a different meaning, not always identical to the modern one. Some of them are synonyms (for example, prophecy and divination, anticipation and divination). But in most cases, each word indicates some kind of feature, has its own, specific meaning.

Thus, the word "foresight" usually denotes the most general, generic concept of judgments about the future, which includes all other varieties of such judgments. At the same time, with the help of this word, as a rule, they emphasize a certain objectivity, the validity of such judgments.

“Prediction” is, in general, of the same character, but indicates, so to speak, a higher degree of activity and at the same time concreteness of judgment, it represents, as it were, a logical conclusion from foresight: a person foresees that events will unfold in such and such a way. , and predicts that this and that should be expected.

"Prophecy" in the strict sense of the word is foresight with the help of some supernatural powers, for example, when a person announces that "God's revelation" has descended upon him. In view of the futility of this kind of "foresight", this word eventually acquired an ironic connotation, emphasizing the pretentiousness, subjectivity, groundlessness or inconsistency of one or another prediction.

On the contrary, “anticipation” usually indicates the success, reliability of foresight, and, moreover, not with the help of some supernatural forces, but with the help of the intuition of the person himself, by a correct guess, random or somehow justified.

The discussions that have been going on in recent years on the question of whether another word in this series, namely “forecasting”, has the right to exist, stemmed mostly from the purest misunderstanding: forecasting was completely wrongly attributed to the meaning of either foresight in general, or prediction and anticipation. especially. Why, indeed, another synonym, when there are already a lot of them? But the fact of the matter is that “forecast” in the modern sense of the word is not just foresight, but a special kind of it, which differs significantly from all other types (especially divination and anticipation) by a high degree of validity, scientific thoroughness, objectivity. Forecasting is not just a statement about the future, but a systematic study of the prospects for the development of a particular phenomenon or process using the means of modern science.

Prediction is always built on the basis of scientific explanation, aims to explain the phenomenon in the future. Prediction is characterized by uncertainty, because it speaks of an event as a possible state, of the emergence of a new one.

believes that foresight in the broad sense of the word is the receipt of information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena, regardless of their spatial and temporal localization. A similar point of view (with minor variations) is shared by A. Bauer and V. Eichhorn and others.

It is important to emphasize that foresight in all its varieties is a reflection of the future, knowledge of future development processes.

forecasting means knowledge of the future, and prediction is interpreted as obtaining information about some unknown, but possibly existing phenomena.

And they believe that a prediction is a description with a given accuracy of the state of an object at a moment in time following the moment of prediction. A prediction turns into a prediction after the time for which it was made. In other words, according to the opinion of these authors, a forecast is actually retrospective knowledge about an object, so to speak, a former prediction.

More acceptable is the point of view of those who propose to use the concept of prediction to express the qualitative level of describing the future, the concept of forecast to denote the quantitative parameters of predicted phenomena, and the concept of foresight as a generic concept for the first two.

Finally, it should be said about the ambiguity of the concept of foresight. The term foresight is used to refer to both the process of predictive research and the resulting final knowledge about the future. In concepts expressing various modifications of foresight, these two aspects can be emphasized with the help of such terms as prediction and prediction, forecast and prediction.

2.2. Types of social foresight

In the futurological literature, it is generally accepted to subdivide foresight into the prediction of the future and the prediction of existing phenomena that already take place in the present, but are not yet known.

It also highlights the prediction of "existing but unknown" phenomena, which actually turns out to be a prediction of future discoveries of the existence of these phenomena or their properties. So Mendeleev, strictly speaking, did not predict the existence of certain properties of a number of chemical elements unknown at that time (it is impossible to predict what already exists), but put forward a hypothesis about their existence, on the basis of which he predicted the possibility of discovering elements possessing these properties in the future. This foresight was to a certain extent the substantiation of the hypothesis relating to the actual reality. In the same way, geologists, based on the study of the structural features of rock massifs, the patterns of their formation, do not predict the areas of occurrence of certain minerals, but on the basis of their hypotheses about the location, they predict the possibility of discovering new deposits.

In characterizing foresight in the temporal plane as the comprehension of the future that has not yet arisen, the future that is becoming, one should single out some of its very peculiar varieties. One of these is hindsight, where predictive thinking moves from the more distant to the less distant, or from the past to the present. Here, obviously, it is legitimate to speak of foresight in the event that the subject of cognition conditionally puts himself in the situation that existed at the time of the forecast, and tries to recreate after the fact possible ways of further development in the past in accordance with the real possibilities that existed then, in accordance with those decisions and methods of action that could potentially be adopted and put into practice in those conditions. Of course, it would be a hopeless task to guess "what would happen if ..." in the sense of a detailed prediction of the possible social consequences of various decisions, actions, alternative development options in the past. However, such a retrospective foresight, reconstructing the earlier possible paths of history, is in principle possible and has a scientific, theoretical, as well as educational value.

Foresight, carried out from some point in the past to the present, the so-called post-forecast, can also be used to practically test the effectiveness of modern forecasting methods by comparing the results obtained with indicators of the actual course of development. Such approbation of the methods of predictive research on the material of development in the past and its results in the present makes it possible to increase the degree of probability and reliability of predicting the future.

It is legitimate to consider as a kind of foresight the transition from information about a more distant future to information about a less distant future, as well as from the future to the present. The latter takes place in normative forecasting. Here, predictive thinking, in contrast to the traditional search for forecasts, moves as if in the opposite direction - from the future to the present. The starting point in this case are the final points of the development of the social system - the satisfaction of certain social needs and the fulfillment of possible goals. From this final future state, the normative forecast consistently, step by step, "goes" to the present, fixing possible intermediate stages and at the same time determining the range of possible goals, methods of activity, the choice and implementation of which are necessary to achieve the predicted final result that meets the criteria set on the basis of social ideals. and regulations. Although in both cases, mental operations are performed in the time interval in the direction opposite to the real development processes, we are talking about foresight, since the object of reflection is the prospects for the future course of events, future directions and results of activity.

There is scientific and non-scientific foresight. In addition, one should also distinguish between empirical prediction, which occupies, as it were, an intermediate position between scientific and non-scientific prediction.

Such foresight is unscientific, which is based on fantastic, unreal, artificially constructed relationships, often on visions, "revelations", i.e., such foresight, the only purpose of which is to manipulate human views and behavior, which has no factual basis. Dreaming, divination, astrology, and the like also belong to non-scientific foresight. This group also includes prophecies and social utopias, predictions of a utopian and religious nature.

Such a prediction is considered scientific, which is the result of a scientific theory obtained within the framework of this theory, based primarily on the foundation of a systematic scientific and theoretical analysis of the laws of social development and the conditions for their implementation.

Only foresight, based on an analysis of real conditions, can be as reliable as possible and most fully penetrate into the possible, probable and necessary trends of the future. But the hallmark of scientific foresight is not absolutely accurate and complete knowledge of the future. Such knowledge, as will be seen from what follows, is logically meaningless. Characteristic of scientific forecasting, first of all, is that it is based on the knowledge of objective laws and on an effective methodology; its results can be checked, corrected, refined and developed further; it is limited to predicting what can be predicted as necessary and probable due to its dialectical determinism, starting from the past and the present.

Empirical forecasting is called, which is based on the everyday experience of people, on the actual or imaginary relationship and regularity, which, however, is not based on a scientific theoretical basis or assessment of experience, on the study of the patterns of ongoing processes. An example is the so-called folk omens. Usually these predictions are doubtful or uncertain. But this does not exclude the possibility that they can sometimes be justified, either by chance or by virtue of an unknown reflection of actual regular relationships.

For a long time, foresight of this kind played a significant role in human life, appearing in the form of worldly rules. It existed for quite a long time in the conditions of stable and closed dwarf farms with their production and social relations. The situation is different at the present time, which is characterized by a continuous change in the productive forces, a high degree of penetration of science into all aspects of the life of society.

It should be emphasized the fundamental incompatibility of utopia and scientific foresight, which always gives a dynamic picture in which all predictable circumstances are perceived as moments of one continuous process of development, and the latter can only be understood on the basis of real conditions, contradictions, driving forces and patterns.

Utopianism, like divination, gives a frozen, motionless image of the predicted circumstances. In addition, where real interrelations and processes (from which a forecast arises) operate in scientific foresight, desires, assessments, moral requirements operate in utopia, presented as independent historical forces; they take the place of regular relationships and are perceived as the latter, so that in the end the utopia is a simple extrapolation of assessments and moral views or depicts subjective desires, assessments and demands as a future reality.

Chapter 3. THE CONCEPT OF INTUITION AND ITS ROLE IN SOCIAL FORESIGHT

3.1. The concept and forms of intuition

Intuition is a specific form of cognitive process. Through its various forms, the interaction of sensory and logical knowledge is carried out. The epistemological functions of intuition consist in a kind of combinatorics of available knowledge with data from cryptognoses and the subsequent transformation of the new knowledge obtained into the status of scientific. Thus, the action of intuition also extends to the level of scientific knowledge, or rather, its result - intuitive knowledge is an important component of the process of obtaining new scientific knowledge.

The epistemological analysis of the intuitive form of the cognitive process involves the elucidation of the relationship "between the knowledge available at the beginning of the intuitive act and the knowledge obtained as a result of this act, as well as the identification of the essence of the epistemological mechanism by which the transformation of the "old" (initial) knowledge into the new takes place" .

In accordance with the tasks set, the main content of the presented concept is that intuition appears in cognition as a process and as a result. The epistemological analysis of intuition as a process is reduced to the analysis of the action of its various forms in human cognitive activity. As a result, intuition appears in the form of "intuitive knowledge".

Most often, researchers refer to the classification proposed by Mario Bunge. The contradictory attitude to this classification that takes place in our literature prompts us to examine it in detail.

"When we do not know exactly which of the listed mechanisms played a role, when we do not remember the premises or are not clearly aware of the sequence of inference processes of inference, or if we have not been systematic and rigorous enough, we are inclined to say that all this was a matter of intuition. Intuition is a collection of rubbish where we dump all the intellectual mechanisms that we don’t know how to analyze them or even how to accurately name them, or those whose analysis and name do not interest us, ”writes Bunge. He considers the most commonly used meanings of the term intuition, such as quick perception, imagination, abbreviated reasoning, and sound judgment. Bunge distinguishes primarily sensual and intellectual intuitions.

Sensual intuition, according to Bunge, has the following forms:

1. Intuition as perception.

Intuition as perception is expressed in the process of rapid identification of an object, phenomenon or sign.

Clear understanding of meaning and relationship or sign.

Ability to interpret.

2. Intuition as imagination.

The faculty of representation or geometric intuition.

The ability to form metaphors: the ability to show the partial identity of features or functions, or the complete formal or structural identity of otherwise different objects.

Creative imagination.

Bunge classifies intellectual intuition (intuition as reason) as follows:

1. Intuition as reason.

Accelerated inference - a rapid transition from one statement to another, sometimes with a quick slip of individual links.

The ability to synthesize or generalized perception.

Common sense is a judgment based on ordinary knowledge and not based on special knowledge or methods, or limited to the passed stages of scientific knowledge.

2. Intuition as an assessment.

Sound judgment, phronesis (practical wisdom), insight or penetration: the ability to quickly and correctly assess the importance and significance of a problem, the plausibility of a theory, the applicability and reliability of a method, and the usefulness of an action.

Intellectual intuition as a normal way of thinking.

These, according to Bunge, are the main varieties of intuition. The author makes an attempt to systematize the most commonly used meanings of intuition among the endless hierarchy of interpretations of this concept. However, its systematization is not always consistent.

The main goal of Bunge's entire study is to reveal the enormous heuristic role of intuition as a necessary moment in the process of the scientist's cognitive activity. In this regard, his work is of known value. Thanks to this study, the main approaches to the study of the problem are outlined, providing a constructive attitude towards the latter. According to Bunge, this constructive approach includes:

Careful analysis of the numerous meanings of the term "intuition" and careful use of it.

Empirical and theoretical analysis of intuition within the framework of scientific psychology.

Refining the results of intuition through classifying, enriching and clarifying concept development8.

These three positions are really important in the development of the problem under study. But the classification of types of intuition proposed by Bunge does not fully meet these requirements.

The problem of classifying intuition is one of the most difficult points in the study of the problem as a whole. This is due to the fact that the object itself, which is subjected to the operation of classification, is not subject to the action of the rules necessary, say, for a formal classification. Any formal classification presupposes, first of all, a clear, sharp separation of the objects of one group from the objects of another group. The result of such a classification should be the establishment of some order in the arrangement of these groups themselves, although in this case the established order is often artificial and arbitrary. Classification based on formal principles implies some kind of distribution into groups, which is based on the similarity of the objects of each group due to the presence of a common property. It is quite clear that intuition is not amenable to formal classification, since we can only talk about clarifying the concept and systematizing this field of knowledge in order to facilitate orientation in it. Establishing a clear similarity and difference between the varieties of intuition does not seem appropriate.

Intuitive knowledge is an important area of ​​human knowledge, belonging to the field of both scientific and non-scientific knowledge. In this section, we will be mainly interested in the operation of intuition as a process in scientific knowledge, so we will try to start by highlighting the specific characteristics of scientific intuition.

The most characteristic features of scientific intuition include:

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through sensory knowledge of the surrounding world.

The fundamental impossibility of obtaining the desired result through direct logical inference.

Unaccountable confidence in the absolute truth of the result (this in no way removes the need for further logical processing and experimental verification).

Suddenness and unexpectedness of the result.

Immediate evidence of the result.

Unconsciousness of the mechanisms of the creative act, ways and methods that led the scientist from the initial formulation of the problem to the finished result.

Extraordinary lightness, incredible simplicity and speed of the path traveled from initial premises to discovery.

A pronounced feeling of self-satisfaction from the implementation of the process of intuition and deep satisfaction from the result.

So, everything that happens intuitively must be sudden, unexpected, directly obvious, unconsciously fast, unconsciously easy, outside of logic and contemplation, and at the same time in itself strictly logical and based on previous sensory experience.

The peculiarity of intuitive knowledge is that, in its epistemological essence, it is a transformative, combinatorial knowledge, the result of which is intuitive knowledge.

As a fact of knowledge, each kind of intuition is an indisputable reality that exists in the field of knowledge for all knowers. The human mind, preoccupied with comprehending questions related to cognitive activity, also tried to resolve the question of how knowledge generated by experience and possessing relative necessity and universality can follow knowledge that no longer has relative, but unconditional universality and necessity.

Intuitive cognition as direct differs from rational cognition based on the logical apparatus of definitions, syllogisms and proofs. The advantages of intuitive knowledge over rational knowledge can be represented as follows:

1) the ability to overcome the limitations of known approaches to solving a problem and go beyond the usual ideas approved by logic and common sense, to see the problem as a whole;

2) intuitive knowledge gives the cognizable object as a whole, immediately "all the infinite content of the object", allows "to grasp the greatest fullness of possibilities." At the same time, various aspects of an object are known on the basis of the whole and from the whole, while rational knowledge deals only with parts (sides) of the object and tries to put together a whole out of them, to build an infinite series of general concepts that are attached to each other, but due to the fact that that such a series is unrealizable, rational knowledge always remains incomplete;

3) intuitive knowledge has an absolute character, because it contemplates a thing in its essence, rational knowledge has a relative character, since it consists only of symbols;

4) intuition is given creative variability, the fluidity of reality, while in the general concepts of rational knowledge only immobile, general states of things are conceived;

5) intuitive knowledge is the highest manifestation of the unity of intellectual knowledge, because in the act of intuition, the mind simultaneously thinks and contemplates. Moreover, this is not only a sensory knowledge of the individual, but an intellectual contemplation of the universal and necessary connections of the subject. Therefore, as the rationalists of the 17th century believed, intuition is not just one of the types of intellectual knowledge, but its highest form, the most perfect.

Possessing all these advantages over rational knowledge, intuition, nevertheless, has vulnerabilities: it

1) the lack of manifestation of the reasons that led to the result obtained,

2) the absence of concepts that mediate the process of intuition, the absence of symbols, and

3) confirmation of the correctness of the result.

And although a direct understanding of the connections of an object or phenomenon may be sufficient to discern the truth, but not at all sufficient to convince others of this, evidence is required for this. Every intuitive guess needs verification, and such verification is most often carried out by logically deducing the consequences from it and comparing them with the available facts.

Thanks to the basic mental functions (sensing, thinking, feeling and intuition), consciousness receives its orientation. The peculiarity of intuition is that it participates in perception in an unconscious way, in other words, its function is irrational. Unlike other perceptual functions, intuition may also have features similar to some of them, for example, sensation and intuition have much in common, and, in general, these are two perceptual functions that mutually compensate each other, like thinking and feeling.

Today, there are many disparate, unsystematic approaches to determining the form in which intuition manifests itself.

From the point of view of the subject of perception itself, these are subjective and objective forms - Subjective - this is the perception of unconscious mental data of subjective origin. Objective form is the subliminal perception of factual data emanating from the object, accompanied by subliminal thoughts and feelings.

The ability of a person to distinguish and identify objects of the surrounding world and their simple combinations is intuitive. The classic intuitive concept of objects is the idea of ​​the presence of things, properties and relationships. First of all, we mean objects that are sensually perceived either in the surrounding reality or in the reality of the inner world of images, emotions, desires, etc.

Thus, the simplest form of intuition, which plays an important role in the initial stages of the creative process, is sensory contemplation, or spatial intuition. With its help, the initial geometric concepts of figures and bodies are formed. The first simple judgments of arithmetic have the same sensory-practical and intuitive character. All elementary ratios of arithmetic, such as "5 + 7 = 12", are perceived as absolutely reliable.

Conclusions are also taken as immediate evidence, something unconditionally given. Logical analysis takes into account, but never rejects, this kind of statement. This type of intuition in mathematics is called "objective" or "praxeological".

A somewhat peculiar kind of intuition is the transfer of features that have a common meaning for a certain class of objects to new objects of this class. In mathematics, it is called "empirical" intuition. Logically, empirical intuition is a hidden conclusion by analogy, and it has no more certainty than analogy in general. The conclusions obtained in this way are tested by logical analysis, on the basis of which they can be rejected.

Confidence in the results of sensory intuition was undermined after a large number of concepts and theories arose in mathematics that contradicted everyday sensory intuition. The discovery of continuous curves that have no derivatives at any point, the emergence of new, non-Euclidean geometries, the results of which at first seemed not only contrary to ordinary common sense, but also unimaginable from the point of view of intuition based on Euclidean ideas, the concept of actual infinity, conceivable according to analogies with finite sets, etc. - all this gave rise to a deep distrust of sensual intuition in mathematics.

At present, it is generally accepted that in scientific creativity the decisive role belongs to intellectual intuition, which, however, is not opposed to the analytical, logical development of new ideas, but goes hand in hand with it.

Intellectual intuition does not rely at all on sensations and perceptions, even in their idealized form.

In mathematical reasoning, primarily in elementary discursive transitions, i.e., in conclusions “from the definition”, as well as in conclusions on logical schemes of transitivity, contraposition, etc., without an explicit formulation of these schemes, there is a so-called “logical” intuition . Logical intuition (certainty) also refers to stable unrealizable elements of mathematical reasoning.

Based on the division of situations of intuitive clarity, two main types of intuition are distinguished: apodictic, the results of which are not subject to revision from the point of view of logic, and assertoric, which has a heuristic value and is subject to logical analysis.

One of the most productive forms of intellectual intuition is creative imagination, with the help of which new concepts are created and new hypotheses are formed. An intuitive hypothesis does not logically follow from the facts, it relies mainly on creative imagination.

In other words, intuition in mathematical creativity acts not only as a holistic, unifying idea, to a certain extent completing the cycle of research, but also as a guess that needs further development and verification using deductive, evidential methods of reasoning.

Concrete intuition is the perception of the factual side of things, abstract intuition is the perception of ideal connections.

The conceptual one forms new concepts on the basis of previously existing visual images, and the eidetic one builds new visual images on the basis of previously existing concepts.

3.2. The role of intuition in social foresight

The role of intuition in scientific and, in particular, mathematical knowledge has not yet been sufficiently developed. It is known that the intuitive components of cognition can be found in representatives of many professions and in various life situations. Thus, in jurisprudence, a judge is expected not only to know the "letter" of the law, but also its "spirit". He must pass sentence not only according to a predetermined amount of evidence, but also according to "internal conviction".

In philology, one cannot do without the development of a “linguistic sense”. Having cast a cursory glance at the patient, the doctor can sometimes make an accurate diagnosis, but at the same time he has difficulty explaining which symptoms he was guided by, he is not even able to realize them, and so on.

As for mathematics, here intuition helps to comprehend the relationship between the whole and parts, before any logical reasoning. Logic plays a decisive role in the analysis of the finished proof, in dividing it into separate elements and groups of such elements. The synthesis of parts into a single whole, and even individual elements into larger groups or blocks, is achieved with the help of intuition.

Attempts at machine modeling of human activity turn out to be secondary in relation to intuitive human activity, based on the synthesis of parts and the whole.

Consequently, the understanding of mathematical reasoning and proof is not limited to logical analysis, but is always supplemented by synthesis, and such synthesis, based on intellectual intuition, is by no means less significant than analysis.

The intuitive hypothesis does not follow logically from the facts, it is mainly based on the creative imagination. In addition, intuition is "the ability to see the target from afar."

The ideas of intuitionism are so widespread that they are appealed to when analyzing the views of prominent philosophers. According to Husserl's phenomenological description, the idea of ​​succession - central to the concept of number - is an essential feature of the process of intuition.

In history, situations were not uncommon when the intellect was unable to penetrate into the essence of a process or phenomenon, and intuition came to the rescue as the “highest revelation”, as an unconscious penetration (comprehension) of the future with the help of instinct and other components of the subconscious.

The theory of intuitionism proceeded from the fact that intuition is irrational, that it is necessary to focus not so much on the mind, thinking, but on "seeing sympathy."

Further study of intuition showed that it can manifest itself, firstly, in a form based on feelings. This is quite typical for interpersonal communication both in the family and at work, when the smallest details in the relationships of people gradually form a general impression of the actions and behavior of other people, on the basis of which expectations of future events and possible changes are built.

Secondly, intuition in social foresight is based on rational thinking (“intellectual intuition”). Therefore, insight does not come just like that, but as a meaningful reality in a special way, knowledge of a huge amount of information, as, for example, it happened with the discovery of the periodic system of elements.

At the same time, it is necessary to know the limitations that accompany intuition as a method of cognition, as a form of social foresight. Intuition can acquire the strength of prejudice, delusion, if, being effective in relation to one social process, it will be unquestioningly transferred to other social processes and phenomena.

Intuition can turn into projecting if it does not rely on a significant information base. In this case, it becomes akin to charlatanism, which operates with random, little interconnected information, relies on conjecture and arbitrary interpretation of events that have come to hand.

In this regard, it is important to understand the role and significance of innate ideas, which are given to thinking initially, are not acquired from experience and cannot be changed on the basis of empirical knowledge. Usually this:

1) ready-made ideas or concepts that people operate as true;

2) ideas embedded in thinking as potential abilities and inclinations.

The main thing is that these possibilities should be realized, seen and supported, and also used in deciding the future of this or that social process or phenomenon.

It is the use of intuition (based on a large number of disparate data) that allows us to assert that in the 21st century social confrontations will shift from interracial, interethnic contradictions towards religious confrontation (and even religious wars) between the largest confessions of the world. As for the sociology of management, there is no doubt that intuition is used by almost every leader (consciously or spontaneously), including when solving not only operational, but also long-term problems of the development of his organization. And the more the leader knows the virtues and limitations of intuition, the more successfully he will apply it in social foresight.

Conclusion

Foresight is concretized in two forms: in the predictive (descriptive, or descriptive) form related to the category of foresight itself, and in the conjugated with it, related to the category of control - pre-indicative. Prediction implies a description of possible prospects, states, solutions to the problems of the future. Foretelling is connected with the actual solution of these problems, with the use of information about the future for the purposeful activity of the individual and society.

Prediction results in the forms of premonition, anticipation, foresight, forecasting. Premonition (simple anticipation) contains information about the future at the level of intuition, subconsciousness. Foresight (complex anticipation) carries information about the future based on life experience, more or less correct guesses about the future, not based on special scientific research. Finally, forecasting (which is often used in the previous meanings) should mean, with this approach, a special scientific study, the subject of which is the prospects for the development of a phenomenon.

Forecasting is not limited to trying to predict the details of the future (although in some cases this is important). The forecaster proceeds from the dialectical determination of the phenomena of the future, from the fact that necessity makes its way through chances, that a probable approach is needed to the phenomena of the future, taking into account a wide range of possible options. Only with this approach, forecasting can be effectively used to select the most probable or optimal option when justifying a goal, plan, program, project, or decision in general.

Forecasts must precede plans, contain a pre-evaluation of the consequences of fulfilling (or not fulfilling) plans, and cover everything that cannot be planned. Forecast and plan differ in the ways of operating information about the future: a probable description is a forecast, a directive decision regarding measures to achieve the possible, desirable is a plan. Forecast and plan can be developed independently of each other. But in order for a plan to be effective, it must be preceded by a forecast, as continuous as possible, allowing scientific substantiation of this and subsequent plans.

The future is sought to be foreseen, predicted, anticipated, foreseen, predicted, etc. But the future can also be planned, programmed, designed. In relation to the future, you can set goals and make decisions.

Methods of social foresight are still in search, in the process of creative development and testing by time, which, undoubtedly, gradually enriches the arsenal of this stage of social management.

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