History is actually full of these potential game-changed battles that have all but taken place. It is impossible to know for sure how things would turn out, but it is incomprehensible to the mind to think that ...
1. Stalin's Berlin Tricks Almost Started World War III
It was 1948 and the dust from World War II was just settling. After kicking Nazi ass with the help of his Entente allies, Joseph Stalin decided it was time to play the role of the great villain again.Berlin was beginning a new life as a divided city, with the Soviet Union in the east and the Allies in the west. However, Stalin did not want to settle for only half the pie. He blocked Berlin from all military and civilian traffic from the West, which was a particularly effective move since West Berlin was completely surrounded by the fully communist German Democratic Republic. Thus, Stalin gave the Western forces a giant middle finger... and gave the encircled West Berlin about a month before it starts to starve to death.
Stalin did not want to start a war with the West. But he needed to show his strength, which, in his usual mode of action, required the constant tension of his opponents. However, the United States still remembered the previous mustachioed madman ranting about Berlin and was fully prepared for a scandal. General Lucius D. Clay, head of administration of the American Occupation Zone in post-war Germany, took the defensive by sending an armed convoy to fight its way to Berlin through eastern Germany. In other words, effectively went to war with the Soviets.
Although the enterprise was risky (World War II nevertheless showed that the Soviet troops were by no means a weak enemy), the Joint Chiefs of Staff took everything very seriously. To counter any resistance, Clay asked Air Force General Curtis Emerson LeMay to provide air cover. But LeMay's miscalculation was just as impressive as Clay's. He simply proposed a pre-emptive attack on all Soviet airfields in Germany.
What stopped?
Fortunately, instead of starting a third world war, the Allied forces decided to give peace a chance. They launched the Berlin Airlift, an air-supply operation for West Berlin until Stalin got sick of it all and backed down.If the war started?
There would be a third world nuclear dance.Imagine the Allies' collective fear of Stalin's actions. They had not yet recovered from the battle with the dictator of a mass scale, and then they suddenly faced another one who had just given a light to the first one. They were not in the mood to take risks.
And if Clay had sent his convoy away and been fired upon, not only would LeMay have thrown out all the anger of hell on the councils, but Truman would have repeated Hiroshima against Stalin. Even during the airlift, Truman kept his finger on the big red button. If the Soviets had shot down a single plane, the US response would have been atomic. The Cold War would not have ended in 1948 with a series of giant explosions. Harry Truman would have gone down in history with a hell of a reputation, and the USSR would have been bombed by all-continental atomic fallout.
2. The Soviet Union and China almost destroyed each other during the Cold War
As the two dominant communist superpowers, the Soviet Union and China under Mao Zedong were technically on the same side during the Cold War. But in fact, there were constant disagreements between the two countries, condemning each other for overreacting to trifles and fomenting conflicts over territory. In a word, they behaved like a married couple, who are only connected by a common hatred for their neighbor Vasya.
By the end of the 60s, the controversy had grown into throwing dishes. The Soviets rejected Mao's help in building the atomic bomb, most likely because he was unsatisfied with the concept of nuclear war. With no access to his toys and frustrated that the Soviet Union was oblivious to his political views, Mao demanded respect. In 1969, Chinese troops invaded Soviet-occupied Daman Island, which Zedong claimed was originally Chinese territory. Then everything can be easily assumed: shots, dead soldiers, more troops in the region from both sides, and everything became very real.
Ownership of the island bounced back and forth, and the atmosphere heated up. The two superpowers seemed about to tear each other apart until the bewildered democracies they were supposed to be fighting had a chance to make their own popcorn.
What stopped?
Mao Zedong retreated.As the idea of war began to take over the peoples of both the Soviet Union and China, Mao realized that challenging an opponent with a solid track record and a handful of nuclear weapons might not be a very reliable strategy, even if China had its own nuclear program in operation at the time. . Meanwhile, Soviet leaders remained absolutely calm about the destruction, asking the stunned Americans if it would be a problem for them if the Soviet Union launched a pre-emptive nuclear strike on China.
Zedong decided it was time to sit down at the negotiating table. Luckily for him, it turned out that neither side wanted a war over the tiny island. But still, the conflict created a permanent enmity between the two nations. Meanwhile, the US gleefully took advantage of the situation and made the first move towards China, arriving with flowers, trade agreements and diplomatic greetings. This helped pave the way for the ambivalent relations that now exist between countries.
If the war started?
The two greatest armies would kill each other with or without nuclear weapons.A Soviet war with China would involve two incredibly huge conservative armies in a grand duel. Knowing that both sides had access to tactical nuclear weapons and were led by some rather... unstable personalities, one can easily assume that either side would use these weapons to end the bloody conservative war in their favor.
3 The Mexican-American War Almost Helped Germany Win World War I
The Mexican Revolution was a 10-year chain of chaos that turned Mexico upside down. Military leaders rose and fell like pop stars. Short flashes of fame gave way to long declines filled with drunkenness, woeful interviews and rare executions. By 1916, one of these former revolutionary stars, one Pancho Villa, hoped to return to the game by destroying the incumbent big shot, Venustiano Carranza. Villa devised a very desperate plan: to organize a great surprise attack on the United States, so that they would think of Carranza and, out of anger, would repay him with military reprisal. After all, nothing proves your love for the country so much as to allow a huge alien army to suddenly tear it to pieces.
On March 9, 1916, Villa attacked and burned parts of Columbus, New Mexico, to unexpected surprise from the United States. In search of Villa, who tragically forgot to wear a Carranza mask, two columns of US Army troops were sent to Mexico. Also, many American reservists were posted along the border. The invading American forces clashed with the Mexican army, which was quite understandably angry at the brazen infiltration of American soldiers into their territory. Everyone was ready for battle.
What stopped?
Smart leaders. Venustiano Carranza received the Americans rather indifferently, while Woodrow Wilson kept a close eye on the incident. Carranza realized that he was walking on hot coals and resolved the situation without reacting to it. The invading part of the American army and its commander, General Pershing, were allowed to roam northern Mexico as much as they liked. Carranza kept his troops on a tight leash, only letting go when Pershing wandered far south.Meanwhile, Wilson realized that he could not let the Mexican adventure escalate into a real war, because of the threat of being drawn into a real big world war. By February 1917, Wilson withdrew Pershing and his troops, ending the conflict by not wanting to catch Villa.
If the war started?
The United States would not have been able to play its decisive role in the arena of the First World War. This, in turn, would give Germany a great chance to win.By 1917, France and Britain were in serious trouble. Russia dropped out of the war, giving free rein to the German troops to fight on the western front. With these liberated troops, Germany went on a rampage and practically knocked France and Britain out of the war. The only thing that kept Germany from making a decisive move against its opponents was the timely arrival of American forces, which helped to stabilize the western front.
If instead the US had been embroiled in a major war in Mexico, these fresh American soldiers would not have been available to soak up Germany's near-successful attempt to take over Europe. Then perhaps World War II... wouldn't have started? This is the whole point of dreaming about changing history: you change one thing, and who knows where it will all end ...
4. France and Britain almost ruined World War I (before it started)
Looking at the current friendship between France and England, it is easy to forget that they have been at war for about 800 years. So it's not at all surprising that the 19th century was a constant cockfight between them, mostly because of some stupid dispute over North Africa. The dispute was about who would control Egypt and its hotspots - the Nile River and the Suez Canal.In 1898, France finally got fed up and sent an armed expedition to Fashoda on the Upper Nile. Britain responded by sending its armed forces there as well.
People in both countries became indignant at this situation and began to demand that the two nations resolve the issue in a human way, that is, with full-scale perseverance and mass executions, which was a kind of tradition at that time.
What stopped?
France realized that the war would be mainly at sea. It meant coming face to face with the British navy, an unstoppable, worldwide destructive force that the French adversary had never been. This in turn meant that the French army, which could challenge the British, would only cover the causal spots while the British ships broke through their opponents.
Realizing that they would only receive a brutal mid-air strike, France retreated and abandoned its claims to Egypt. In return, the British agreed to more friendly relations. The resolution marked the beginning of a further friendship that would soon make them the powerful allies they are known today…beginning with Germany's standoff in World War I.
If the war started?
Again, the Germans would have won World War I. But this time the British would have helped them.In the late 19th century, the traditionally arrogant Britain gradually realized that being alone was no fun, even as one of the greatest empires in history. When the Fashoda Crisis occurred, Britain leveled its list of potential friends to either France or another rival, Germany. If France had not retreated, Britain might have shaken hands with Germany. And when World War I broke out in 1914, there was a chance that the British military force of 9 million would have joined the Central Powers (well, they would have remained on the sidelines).
5 The Sea Invasion Almost Dragged Britain Into The American Civil War
In 1862, the United States tried to subdue the Confederates in a small skirmish known as the Civil War. To achieve its goals, the north put pressure on the throat of southern trade and supply routes by blockade. The south had no chance to break through without help, so they tried to call on Europe (especially Britain) to fight on their side.
When the Confederates sent a team of diplomats to argue their case, the north found out. Soon, the over-zealous captain of the ship boarded the ship of the diplomats and arrested them. Unfortunately, he overlooked the fact that the ship was carrying diplomats to Britain and sailing under the British flag. Consequently, he essentially invaded Britain, giving them a great excuse to throw all their anger against the north.
No wonder the British lost their temper. And the people of the north recklessly declared: “We will take your tender British asses along with the south, just bring it!”
Indeed, after this there is only one possible outcome. So why doesn't the Confederate flag fly over the whole country and the strange British-southern dialect is not heard?
What stopped?
Political moves of Abraham Lincoln.
Lincoln recognized the gravity of the situation and immediately unleashed a series of extreme Machiavellian strategies. First, he quietly released two diplomats to Britain. He then apologized to Britain for the disturbance. Finally, he gave his own slap in the face by publicly recommending learning how to fight one war at a time.
All this helped to calm the general fury and the desire of Britain to get involved in the war gradually disappeared. And the southerners now had to overcome this display of extreme courtesy in order to gain the support of Europe. As history has shown, they were not particularly successful in this.
If the war started?
The US could become at least two separate nations. While it has always been argued that the South never had a chance to win a civil war, an alliance with the British might have turned things around differently. The British navy was powerful enough to help the south break through the blockade of the north. If, in addition to this, Britain sent away ground forces as well, the south would have the opportunity to end the war, at least with a political settlement, and not with a victory for the north.
And this is only on the condition that the British would calmly go home after the war. But, if they decided to grab a piece of land for themselves, then who knows what the map would look like today, or what other successive wars were fought after that.
Such a joke of the first person of the state became a vivid illustration of the tension that reigned throughout the world. Our US correspondent Nina Vishneva tells what has changed in 30 years:
He has always been a great joker. Other times it's very unique. So on that Saturday afternoon, before the traditional radio address, instead of the banal “one, two, three,” Ronald Reagan stunned the audience: “My fellow Americans, I am pleased to inform you today that I have signed a decree outlawing Russia forever. The bombardment will begin in five minutes."
Almost no one in America remembers the day when World War III didn't start. Unless professional historians and journalists. In 1984, Jonathan Sanders worked as a correspondent for the CBS television channel in the USSR.
“It was the peak of the Cold War. You can imagine the reaction."
The Soviet troops were immediately put on alert. When it became clear that this was just political prank, the USSR attacked America with an angry rebuke: “TASS is authorized to declare that the Soviet Union condemns the unprecedented hostile attack of the President of the United States. Such behavior is incompatible with the high responsibility that the leaders of states, primarily those possessing nuclear weapons, bear for the destinies of their own peoples, for the destinies of mankind.”
The American "Bulletin of Atomic Scientists" then moved the arrows of the symbolic countdown to the nuclear apocalypse by 23 hours and 57 minutes. Closer to the end of the world was only in 1953, when both the US and the USSR tested the hydrogen bomb. Now it's 5:00 p.m. and relations are cooling down again.
Jonathan Sanders, professor, former correspondent for CBS:“The difference is that young Americans now don't even know where Russia is. And if you ask them who the president of Russia is, they can say Yeltsin. Or Gorbachev. Or even Stalin.
The Ukrainian crisis turned history back. America churns out sanctions lists, Russia responds to them. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFall argues that now is the moment of the biggest confrontation between our countries since Mikhail Gorbachev. At the same time, Barack Obama has his own labels.
Barack Obama, US President:"No, this is not a new cold war, this is a very specific issue related to Russia's unwillingness to recognize that Ukraine must determine its own path."
Points out the way - including Russia - America long ago. Carter boycotted the Olympics and imposed a grain embargo; Reagan lifted the embargo, considering the sanctions ineffective, but called the USSR an "evil empire"; Bush Jr. threatened Russia with "adequate" measures. And John McCain sees Russia only as a gas station masquerading as a country. With all the consequences.
Serge Millian, financial expert:“Russia has always been under certain sanctions. Even when the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which had set everyone on edge, was repealed, the Magnitsky Act immediately took its place. History repeats itself - new faces, new politicians, new companies, but the strategy does not change.
And yet, there were periods of warming, and in no case should we forget about them. Under the same Reagan, who almost provoked Armageddon.
Governors Island. Governor's Island. It is called the burial ground of that past Cold War. In 1988, Reagan and Gorbachev met here, and changes for the better began in relations between our two powers. The small island solved big problems. The house where the historic meeting took place is still called Gorby House. True, at the moment it is not suitable for peacekeeping tasks - the current administration of the White House is preoccupied with something else. new sanctions.
© AP Photo, Darko Vojinovic
When a nuclear war nearly started over the moon
Twice during the Cold War the world was on the brink of nuclear war and doomsday due to events in which Norway was involved. The war could have started over faulty electronics, poorly functioning bureaucrats, and misunderstandings, not to mention the Moon.
Fifteen minutes. A break during a football game or a big break at school. This is the length of time that the President of the United States had from the moment a Soviet nuclear attack was discovered to the moment when nuclear missiles could hit the target. Best case scenario.
In this short period of time, the president had to press his own atomic button and thus kill millions of people and make our planet lifeless.
So far, everything is going well. But the situation approached a dangerous line several times. And Norway has been involved at least twice.
Rocket panic reigns
Colorado Springs, USA, October 5th, 1960. In a dark bunker at Ent Air Force Base, officers sit in rows in the vast control center of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD. Their task is to detect the attack of Russian nuclear missiles. A surprise nuclear missile attack is the biggest nightmare for Americans right now.
They had a monopoly on nuclear weapons until 1949. In 1957, the Russians launch the world's first artificial earth satellite, and then it becomes clear that they also have the technology to produce rockets that can reach the US.
In fact, the Russians had very few missiles at this time, but the Americans did not know this. Because of the satellite, they were seized by a missile panic. One of the most important reciprocal steps was the construction of 20 huge radar stations to continuously monitor the Soviet Union.
Antennas 50 meters high and 120 wide, resembling giant church organs, were built in Alaska, Scotland and Thule Air Force Base in Greenland. Each antenna made it possible to cover large areas of airspace that Soviet missiles had to cross on their way to the United States.
The paint at the radar station on the west coast of Greenland had just dried, and the system had only been up and running for a few days. Huge antennas pointed in the direction of Norway and the Soviet missile bases at Plesetsk, which lay in a straight line beyond the province of Finnmark.
On this day in 1960, representatives of several civilian firms visited the control center in Colorado, supplying equipment to an ultra-modern facility. One of them is Peter Peterson, vice president of Bell & Howell. It made projectors that projected images of the Earth onto the screens of the control center.
Above a large wall-wide map of the world hung a large illuminated panel with numbers from 1 to 5. When the businessmen entered the premises, some of the numbers were not lit.
“If the number 1 is on, it means that there is an unidentified object on the way to the USA. If the number 3 is lit, it means a high degree of danger. And if the number five lights up, it means 99.9% that the United States is under attack, ”explained their guide.
This is a nuclear attack
Peter Peterson, then president of Bell & Howell, had the opportunity to test the US Air Force Center chair just as the moon rising on the coast of Norway misled the system into a nuclear war. American writer and journalist Eric Schlosser described the dramatic nature of the situation in the book "Command and control" (Command and control).
Peter Peterson settled into the NORAD commander's chair. As soon as he sat down, the lights began to light up. First 1, then 2 and 3. When 4 caught fire, officers burst into the control center from their offices at a run. Now this is real anxiety.
And right after that. as the number 5 lit up, they knew the US was under attack. The large armored doors protecting the facility closed. All civilians were taken out of the control center and locked in a small office.
“There they were left to their own devices, convinced that a nuclear war had just begun,” writes Schlosser.
"Where is Khrushchev?" And there, in the control center, the deputy commander of NORAD, Canadian General Roy Slemon, was frantically trying to find the commander. He was on board the plane. If this is indeed a Soviet nuclear attack, then the countdown of fifteen minutes has begun.
"Chief, this is a hot one" (Commander, this is an attack), - said Slemon, connecting with the commander by phone.
The warning system showed that the Soviet Union had launched a full-scale nuclear war, and that hundreds of missiles were hurtling toward the United States. The top leadership of the Department of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were sitting in Washington, all awaiting orders for their next steps. There were only a few minutes left before the missiles hit the target.
Slemon turned to the NORAD intelligence chief and asked: "Where is Khrushchev?" Nikita Khrushchev is the leader of the Soviet Union. And the head of intelligence remembered that the Soviet leader was taking part in a meeting at the UN headquarters in New York just at that time.
This proved to be decisive for Slemon. He could not imagine the Soviet Union starting a nuclear war when its leader was in New York. But he wasn't completely sure. A few minutes pass and no missiles arrive in the US. It becomes clear that the terrible event occurred due to a technical failure.
Context
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But what happened? The investigation showed that the signals from the new radar station were so powerful that the moon reflected them, and they returned back to the antennas after two seconds. And the computer interpreted the returned radar signals as missiles flying towards the United States.
That day, radar signals from antennas in Greenland, sending their signals in the direction of Norway, hit the moon as it slowly rose behind the coast of Finnmark.
To the computers in Colorado, it looked as if the Soviet Union had launched all of its missiles from northern Russia.
When news of the NORAD alert was leaked to the press, the US Air Force announced. that they never took the attack seriously. One civilian who lived through everything that happened sees it in a different light. Charles H. Percy, who was later elected to the Washington DC Senate, later spoke of the panic that reigned in the Colorado bunker.
The radar manufacturer quickly produced a device that should solve the problem, the so-called "moon gater". It is turned on every time the moon rises over Norway, and does not allow false interpretation of signals.
Drama on Andøya
In 1995, the Cold War finally ended. The coup d'état that the old guard of the Soviet Union tried to carry out in order to preserve the communist superpower had been crushed two years earlier. The union, which inspired fear, disintegrates completely - geographically and economically.
Russia has inherited the nuclear weapons of the Soviet Union and is armed to the teeth just like before. But an acute shortage of funds greatly affected the existence of a system that should warn of a possible American nuclear attack.
Together with bureaucratic confusion, this led to what experts called the most dangerous episode in the history of nuclear weapons.
And it all started on Andøya, in the north, in Vesterålen.
On the morning of January 25, 1995, the temperature was four or five degrees below zero, with a light breeze blowing over the island, where strong winds usually blow. Mounted on the launch ramp is an imposing rocket, the Black Brant 12, 15 meters high.
The rocket is larger. than any other missile previously fired at Andøya. The rocket engine consists of several stages that undock as the rocket rises to the top of the trajectory of 1,500 kilometers.
special day
The rocket was supposed to be launched to study the northern lights. As usual, the Russian Foreign Ministry received a warning about the launch, so that the radar crews on the other side of the border knew that this was a completely normal launch for peaceful purposes.
We were very interested to know what the launch of this rocket could reveal, especially considering that the weather was supposed to be clear, and the northern lights could be observed in three places: Alaska, Svalbard and Andøya, and such things do not happen every day, Kolbjørn Adolfsen, then director of the Andøya missile range, said in an interview with the NRC in 2012.
With a yellow fiery tail, the Black Brant 12 took off from the launch ramp and disappeared like a burning arrow into the polar darkness. Heading for Svalbard. There, the rocket was supposed to fall into the sea 330 kilometers northeast of the archipelago.
What happened made the international experts say a lot of big words afterwards. Peter Vincent Pry is a Congressional Security Adviser and a former CIA officer. He wrote a book about the catastrophes that could happen with nuclear weapons, where the story of Andøya is devoted to two chapters. He told this to the NRC in 2012.
Although the "Norwegian Missile Crisis" lasted approximately 20 minutes, it was the most serious incident in the history of atomic weapons. Never before has the world been so close to a nuclear war.
Russia's nightmare
Because when the missile from Andøya rose high enough to be intercepted by Russian early warning radars, none of the radar operators knew it was a peaceful launch.
“Norway did everything that was necessary and warned the Russian Foreign Ministry. But there, some bureaucrat made a mistake and did not pass the message on to the Russian Ministry of Defense. As a result, there was nothing known about the launch of the rocket,” says Peter Pry.
Now the Russians thought with horror that one of their worst nightmares - a surprise nuclear attack - was becoming a reality.
“Such an attack could start with a single nuclear missile that would explode over Russia and destroy their command and control system. Thus, they would be unable to launch their nuclear missiles and would be defenseless in the face of the large-scale American attack that would follow. And now everything looks to the Russians as if this is exactly what is happening, ”says Pry.
Screams at Yeltsin
The Russian Ministry of Defense has begun to assess the situation to determine if this is a real attack or not. And they came to the conclusion, Pry writes, that the attack was real.
They activated the so-called "cheget", or nuclear briefcase. He gives the president, who was then Boris Yeltsin, full control over Russia's nuclear weapons.
For the first time, things went so far that it was necessary to activate the atomic briefcase.
“The opening of the atomic briefcase means that Russia is under surprise attack,” Pry says.
The day after the launch of the rocket, President Yeltsin personally confirmed this dramatic event in a television interview.
“Yesterday morning, for the first time, I used the black suitcase that I always have with me, and I immediately called the Minister of Defense and the General Staff,” Yeltsin says.
He suggested that the West wanted to test Russia's reaction, seeing it as militarily weak.
Yeltsin did not tell in the interview what happened while the rocket was rising. But Pry, who has investigated the case extensively, thinks he knows more.
There was a bitter dispute about whether Yeltsin should press the button or not. The Minister of Defense shouted that he must do it. But Yeltsin hesitated, he could not believe it. that the US wanted to launch such an attack on Russia. And Yeltsin's doubts saved the world from a nuclear holocaust, he says.
What the hell are you doing?
Kolbjorn Adolfsen at the Andøya missile range, unexpectedly caught in the middle of this dangerous incident, did not know what had happened until he received a call from an acquaintance who learned the news.
“What the hell are you doing? Do you understand what your rocket has done? Everything is very serious, the Russians were going to start a third world war!”
“It was only then that I realized the seriousness of the situation,” says Adolfsen.
Peter Pry believes that the Andøya crisis of 1995 should be as well known in the world as the Cuban crisis of the 60s.
The Andøya case is another prime example of how a nuclear war can break out. I don't think that a nuclear war can start as a consequence of any superpower wanting to conquer the whole world. It is much more likely that a nuclear war could start as a result of an accident or a misunderstanding, he says.
Andrei Manoilo on the causes and consequences of the US-China conflict in the South China Sea
Last week, World War III nearly broke out in the South China Sea. The event was quickly lost in the newsfeed against the background of others, but it would be very easy to ignore it.
It all started with the fact that on the morning of October 27, the US Navy destroyer Lassen began patrolling a 12-mile zone of artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea.
Admiral Wu Shengli, Commander-in-Chief of the Chinese Navy, said there was a risk that a "minor incident" could lead to the outbreak of war due to the provocative actions of the United States in the South China Sea.
"Such actions by the United States endangered China's sovereignty and security, and harmed peace and stability in the region," Wu Shengli said. “If the American side continues to commit such dangerous and provocative actions, the navies and air forces of the two states may find themselves in an emergency situation, up to and including “involuntary shots while cleaning a gun,” the Chinese admiral said. As TASS explains, the commander used a Chinese idiom meaning an unexpected incident that leads to unforeseen consequences.
The Pentagon confirmed the operation in the South China Sea. Moreover, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter noted that Washington intends to carry out such operations "in the coming weeks and months." The head of the Pentagon explained that the United States would patrol the specified area, since such actions do not carry any violations of international law.
We talk with our expert Professor Moscow State University M.V. Lomonosov, doctor of political sciences Andrei Manoilo ...
Andrey Viktorovich! During the last ten days of October and to this day, a tense situation has developed between the United States and China in the South China Sea. Please tell us what is the essence of the conflict?
- The reason is the same, but the motives of the Chinese side and the United States of America are different. Moreover, they are diametrically opposed.
The reason for the clash is that the United States is deploying its expansionist policy in this region. This is where the two foreign policy strategies of two major forces, the United States and China, collide.
As for China. For a long time, China's naval strategy in the South China Sea has been reduced to a strategy of territorial defense. The code name for this strategy is String of Pearls. It boils down to the fact that for many, many decades, the Chinese navy has been tasked with defending territorial waters, deterring the naval forces of its closest neighbors, and blocking the naval threat from Taiwan.
Taiwan is located in such a way (Chinese sailors told me about this) that you can go to the open sea, to the ocean, either to the south of Taiwan or to the north of it. In both cases, these exits will be fired upon from Taiwan. In fact, it blocks the access of the navy of all of China to the operational space. That is, Taiwan, by its position, prevents the Chinese fleet from becoming a fleet of the high seas.
The Chinese did not set themselves large-scale tasks for a long time. However, when a country becomes a powerful state, their global military strategy begins to change, and with it the naval one. China is gaining strength. He is actively rearming the People's Liberation Army. And as China grows in strength and power, China begins to realize that it is approaching a level that allows it to contain the power of the United States on an equal footing.
China is building a fleet for operations away from China's territorial waters on the high seas in various theaters of war. The ships of the Chinese Navy are actively involved in the operation in the Gulf of Aden. Thus, the largest flotilla that escorts ships and protects them from pirates in this region is the Chinese Navy.
In fact, in the Gulf of Aden, China is training its captains on a large scale to conduct long-distance operations on the high seas. This is necessary in order to secure the supply of energy carriers that are delivered by tankers to China from the African coast: from Sudan, Libya (until recently, it was the largest supplier of hydrocarbons to China). And the Americans, if they want, can easily cut these lines. Therefore, China is training its command staff to conduct operations in distant territorial waters.
This qualitative change has just influenced the policy that China is pursuing in the South China Sea. Now that there is already a fleet that can solve problems in the open ocean, China considers the South China Sea its own. Well, since this territory is disputed - it is claimed by the Philippines and a number of neighboring countries - China began to promote the following tactics: it began to "fill" the islands, create artificial ones. And so do the Filipinos. For a long time.
The South China Sea is very shallow in some parts, and the Filipinos sank their old patrol ships or barges there, washed up the earth around and turned out to be an artificial island. China is doing the same. He began to build man-made islands on the shallows and proclaim his sovereignty over these areas of land, because the reclaimed island is already dry land. And around the land, the sovereignty of the state, which extends to a 12-mile sea zone, and this zone immediately becomes the territorial waters of the state to whom this island belongs.
Thus, China began to turn the East China Sea almost into its own, building a chain of islands with mutually intersecting 12-mile zones. And this has caused conflict with the Philippines, which are the main NATO allies of the United States in this region. Therefore, the aggravation of relations between China and the Philippines is a blow to American interests.
As for the interests of the United States. When they won the war against the Soviet Union (namely, all the military forces of the Americans were concentrated against the USSR), this entire group became unnecessary in Europe. The Americans began to transfer it to Southeast Asia in order to contain the rising China. This was before the "Arab Spring" in the Middle East, before the events in Ukraine. That is, when everything was quiet and there were no problems that today occupy the attention of everyone without exception. By this time, the Americans had already transferred their bases and fleets, including nuclear ones, to Southeast Asia.
Now about 80% of the nuclear fleet is located along the border with China, which adequately accepted this and began to prepare to repel military aggression. Thus, the main military strategy of the United States was focused on containing China, on a possible aggravation of relations with China up to an armed conflict.
In order to deploy strike contingents, the United States began to negotiate with different parties, from which they had previously been forced to leave for various reasons. And one of those parties is the Philippines. There were two huge bases there, and the Americans are again trying to create them.
One of the Philippine bases is located very close to the chain of man-made islands that the Chinese have washed up. A few days ago, this destroyer passed along the border of the 12-mile territorial zone of one of these reclaimed islands. A conflict unfolds. The United States needs bases in the Philippines, the Philippines needs the United States to contain China.
- I see... The United States is once again trying to stake out places, especially since it is no longer so easy to do this in Syria. But why is this conflict escalating now?
- Firstly, in 2017, the comprehensive rearmament of the People's Liberation Army of China is ending (although in fact they have already rearmed themselves). Therefore, the Chinese military is acting more boldly than a year ago, two years ago or three. They feel their strength and demonstrate this strength.
The Chinese admiral's statement that any escalation could lead to war is very harsh. It would have been impossible three years ago, when China's military potential was somewhat different. Today it has become possible.
The process that the Americans launched ten years ago, when they decided to contain China militarily, has just led to results at the current point in the political process. That is, everything is natural. This is the first moment.
Secondly, for the Americans, until recently (the conflict in Ukraine and Syria), the Chinese confrontation was the main line. In their previous edition of the national security strategy, China is mentioned as the main military adversary. Now the Americans have added to this strategy containment of Russia.
The United States, of course, is a great country that has colossal power. It is the number one military power in the world. But, if this country had set the task of containing only one Russia or only one China, perhaps it would have succeeded in this direction. But containing China and Russia simultaneously on two fronts for the United States is fraught with the collapse of its entire foreign policy and the power of global dominance. That is, everything they wanted.
There is a big risk that by holding back China and Russia at the same time, their "navel will be untied." Resources are not enough. Taking into account the fact that the States today are forced to resolve issues in the face of severe resource constraints. There were no such restrictions in the Bush administration, nor in the Clinton administration - in the "golden age" of American expansion.
- So the United States itself “allowed” the build-up of the power of China and Russia, didn’t it?
- As for China, they could hardly interfere. China objectively gained power. The States understood this very well. Over the past decades, they have been engaged in the fact that they have prevented China in every possible way from maintaining the high rates of growth in power that China had.
The "Arab Spring" is the same one that broke out. It is clear that it was made by the Americans for several other purposes. But note that the growth of China's economy and its power depended on the supply of hydrocarbons. What does the situation have to do with this: Libya under Gaddafi gave 13% of the oil that the Chinese economy consumes. This oil came until the Arab Spring came and Gaddafi died. And that's all. There is no Libyan stream.
13 percent "with a penny" has always been given by Sudan, and its oil-bearing southern and southeastern provinces. What is now called South Sudan since 2011 is two provinces and the province of Darfur as part of Sudan. There has been a civil war going on for many years. Moreover, the factions that clash there: some groups support the United States, while others support China. But implicitly, of course. And when it is necessary to put pressure on China, they kindle this civil war, and oil supplies from Darfur are stopped.
Another point is Iran, on which the Americans imposed sanctions. But it is next to China. What explains the US hatred of Iran? Iran provides 26 percent of all oil consumed by the Chinese economy. They wanted to cut this supply channel as well. And when the economy is growing at a rapid pace, it is very vulnerable. She's like a plane taking off. Slightly reduce the speed, and he will fall into a tailspin. That is, a slowdown for a fast-growing economy is fraught with a breakdown in a "corkscrew". The Americans tried to do this in every possible way and generally achieved success on many fronts.
- Andrey Viktorovich, you said yourself that China warned the United States that this incident in the South China Sea could lead to the outbreak of war. What does this mean? The last Chinese warning, and in this context can we say that we are now together with China against America?
- Not. China is always on its own. This is such a self-sufficient country that in their mentality, in their culture there is a ban on entering into allied relations with anyone. They have no allies. They have temporary partners or fellow travelers, as the Chinese themselves call them. Therefore, China does not "ally" with anyone. He was not and cannot be an ally.
— So after all we are partners with China? It doesn't matter that the US confronted us in Syria...
“What is happening in Syria has nothing to do with this conflict in the South China Sea. There is no connection. This is a longstanding conflict between the United States and China. This is their two-way business.
“Nevertheless, a parallel suggests itself… Right now China has entered a phase of confrontation with the United States… We cannot find a common language with them in Syria. Almost in sync...
- If the synchronism is more likely random. One would like to think that the Chinese are also irritated by the behavior of the United States, and they support Russia in this confrontation. In fact, there is nothing like it. China is minding its own business and its own issues. The synchronicity here is connected exclusively with the peculiarity of the foreign policy pursued by the United States today.
The conflict in the South China Sea is Obama's mistake... One of many mistakes. As well as a colossal mistake with the unleashing of the conflict in Ukraine. As well as the colossal mistake with the cultivation of the "Islamic State" and the "Arab Spring", which was also initiated by the Americans. What these mistakes have in common is that they are the result of the activities of one person and one administration. That is why they are so similar to each other.
The Americans, striving for their global dominance, make the same "mistakes" in different regions and spoil relations in approximately the same format with various countries: with Russia, with China, with Brazil - with a whole galaxy of countries. And they do it under a blueprint.
I believe that the Chinese warning is more than serious. Pay attention to the form in which they made it - they did not just warn about the inadmissibility of actions. The Chinese admiral appealed to the minds of politicians in the White House administration. He asked that the actions of the Americans finally become reasonable, that they be aware of the full risk of being drawn into an armed conflict. It is very serious.
With its warning, China asks and tearfully begs the United States, the political elite of the United States, President Obama not to make fatal mistakes for themselves, that is, for the United States.
Recall that according to international law, state territorial waters extend to 12 miles from the coast. At the same time, the United States believes that such a rule does not apply to artificial islands.
For several decades, China has been in dispute with many countries in the region over the territorial affiliation of a number of islands in the South China Sea, on the shelf of which significant hydrocarbon reserves have been discovered. We are talking primarily about the Xisha archipelago (Paracel Islands), the Nansha and Huangyan islands. In addition to China, these territories are claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Since the end of 2013, China has been carrying out large-scale hydrotechnical and construction work to expand and develop the territories under its control, which has been criticized by several countries in the Pacific region. China has already built airstrips, lighthouses and other facilities on individual artificial islands.
Beijing does not recognize the decision of the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which will concern the territorial ownership of the islands in the South China Sea, said Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin. Earlier, the Philippines filed a lawsuit against China.
Please note that the following extremist and terrorist organizations are banned in the Russian Federation: Jehovah's Witnesses, National Bolshevik Party, Right Sector, Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), Islamic State (IS, ISIS, DAISH) , "Jabhat Fath ash-Sham", "Jabhat an-Nusra", "Al-Qaeda", "UNA-UNSO", "Taliban", "Majlis of the Crimean Tatar people", "Misanthropic Division", "Brotherhood" Korchinsky, "Trident them. Stepan Bandera", "Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists" (OUN).
In 1979, shortly before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was announced, the world was under the threat of nuclear war for several minutes. Those events date back to November 9, when, unexpectedly for everyone, the US military received information that the Soviet Union had launched a massive nuclear strike on the territory of the United States - 17 years after the end of the Caribbean crisis.
Moreover, seven years before the events described, in 1972, an agreement was signed between the two states on the limitation of anti-missile defense systems, which became the forerunner of all agreements on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons.
The beginning of November 1979 turned out to be rich in political events. Of course, the main one was the ongoing revolution in Iran, followed by the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran. Subsequently, based on these events, the Oscar-winning “Operation Argo” will be filmed. However, a much more dangerous event on a global scale occurred in the state of Colorado, where Cheyenne Mountain is located. Its height reaches almost 3 km, and deep in the bowels of the mountain is NORAD - the Center for the Joint Command of the Aerospace Defense of North America.
Exactly there at 3 o'clock in the morning local time received a signal that the USSR launched a massive nuclear strike on the United States - 2,200 Soviet ballistic missiles allegedly flew towards the United States.
The military reacted immediately: they knew that it would take the then US President Jimmy Carter about seven minutes to make a decision.
He still needed to be informed about the attack that had taken place. Before doing this, the military decided to make sure that all available interceptor aircraft were in the air. Meanwhile, senior US military officials were already discussing with might and main what to do. Other aerospace defense centers testified that no information about the Soviet attack had been received there. And the alarm was canceled - all aircraft, including the American board number 1, were ordered to return to the airfields.
While an internal investigation was underway, the details of what happened were leaked to the press. Critical notes appeared in a variety of newspapers and magazines, including the authoritative The Washington Post and The New York Times. According to journalists, the cause of the incident was a training tape that was loaded into the main computer by mistake. Subsequently, it turned out that this was not entirely true: a training program was launched on the computer, which, for some unknown reason, gave a real signal about a massive nuclear attack from the USSR.
Subsequently, other details became known: the military did not call US President Jimmy Carter. Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser to the President, spoke to them on the phone.
Information about the incident leaked to the media could not but cause a resonance in the Soviet Union. And a corresponding reaction followed: Leonid Brezhnev, through the USSR ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Dobrynin, tried to convey to the leadership of the United States his concern about the incident, "fraught with great danger." The General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU especially did not like the fact that at the time of the signal about the imaginary nuclear attack, the highest US military officials and President Carter did not know.
The State Department and Brzezinski responded in unison to the Soviet Union, but their message contained polemics with Moscow and even reproaches against the USSR. The denouement was dissatisfied on both sides. The nuclear apocalypse has been postponed indefinitely, and the alleged nuclear attack incident will be repeated in the US at least twice more.
