At the very end of spring, a terrible natural disaster struck Moscow, which the inhabitants of the capital are unlikely to forget in the next few decades.
On May 29, squally winds knocked down several thousand trees and caused the death of eleven people.
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The hurricane damaged 140 apartment buildings and 1,500 cars.
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As it turned out later, when everyone came to their senses a little, the May rampage of bad weather became the most cruel and destructive natural disaster in Moscow in more than a hundred years - only the tornado of 1904 was worse.
Before the Russians had time to recover from the Moscow storm, the hurricane hit a number of other regions of the country. Just a week later, on June 6 in: due to heavy rain, they overflowed the banks of the river, flooded the streets and destroyed roads and bridges. At the same time, a large hail fell in the Trans-Baikal Territory, and in the Komi Republic, melt water and heavy rain simply washed away the roads from the face of the region.
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The worst thing is that weather forecasters promise that this is only the beginning of disasters. Hurricanes, according to forecasts, are approaching all of Central Russia. At the beginning of summer, on June 2, the residents of St. Petersburg, already accustomed to bad weather, suffered another stress: in the afternoon the temperature dropped to 4 degrees, and hail fell from the sky. Such cold weather in the northern capital was the last time only in 1930. And then, suddenly, after such an "extreme" the thermometer jumped in St. Petersburg right up to +20.
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While the Russians are trying to hide from the ice hail, the Japanese are dying from the wild heat. According to Japanese media reports, over the past week, more than a thousand Japanese citizens ended up in the hospital with the same diagnosis - heatstroke. It has been hot in the Land of the Rising Sun for several weeks now: thermometers show well over 40 degrees. After such an "inferno", employees of the fire service of Japan tell reporters, seventeen people will remain in the hospital for long-term treatment.
« The earth will fly into the heavenly axis! »
So what is really going on in the world? Global warming or cooling? Or is it just the agony of a mad planet that cannot get rid of the “plague” of humanity? In recent decades, the theory of global warming has been the most widespread. It seems to be unconditionally confirmed by the fact that glaciers are melting at a tremendous speed in the world. They are even called the “litmus test” of climate change: after all, we do not notice small fluctuations in the average annual temperature, but the volume of melted ice caps can be easily measured and even simply seen with the naked eye.
According to the forecasts of supporters of the theory of global warming, in the next 80 years, 90% of the glaciers in the European Alps may disappear. In addition, due to the melting of the Arctic ice, the level of the world's seas may also rise significantly. And this is fraught with flooding of some countries and serious climate change on the planet.
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Researchers see the cause of global warming in human activities. They point out that carbon dioxide, methane and other by-products of human agricultural and industrial activities create a greenhouse effect, due to which the temperature on the planet rises, and ice flows into the ocean in streams.
"The winter is coming!"
At the same time, now there are more and more supporters of the theory of global cooling. The fact that we are waiting for the cold in the near future, and not excessive anthropogenic heat, is proved by scientists from the British University of Northumbria.
Global cooling, according to their version, will come as a result of the influence of external rather than internal factors on the Earth's climate. The reason will be a decrease in the activity of our luminary - the Sun. British scientists, using mathematical calculations, modeled the processes occurring on the Sun and made a forecast for the coming years.
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According to the predictions of scientists, in 2022 a serious drop in temperature awaits us. At this time, the Earth will move away from its star to the maximum distance, which will lead to a cooling. In five years, Northumbria University scientists say, our planet will enter the Maunder Minimum, and earthlings will have to stock up on down jackets and heaters in full.
The last time the decline in temperature of such a level as predicted by British researchers was observed in Europe in the 17th century. The most interesting thing is that this theory does not at all contradict the latest observations of meteorologists: its supporters attribute the general increase in temperature and the melting of glaciers to the fact that earlier the Earth was at a minimum distance from the Sun.
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The fact that humanity does not have such a strong influence on the global climate is also very appealing to the controversial new US leader Donald Trump. In early summer, he announced his country's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. This agreement imposes restrictions on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by them into the atmosphere on the countries that signed it. Trump said that this agreement is holding back the growth of industry in the States, and this, in turn, is taking away jobs from the people. But if the British scientists are right, then the US leader has nothing to worry about - the "Maunder minimum" can level the damage that the policy of the industrial magnate can cause to the planet.
When the planet is torn apart
Interestingly, the battle between the supporters of global warming and global cooling can easily end in an equally global draw. There is a theory according to which periods of excessive heat are replaced by phases of cold in waves. This idea is promoted by the Russian scientist, head of the department of the Siberian Regional Research Hydrometeorological Institute Nikolai Zavalishin.
According to the meteorologist, short periods of global increase and decrease in temperature have happened before. In general, they are cyclical. As the scientist noted, each such cycle includes one decade of rapid global warming, followed by 40 to 50 years of cooling.
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Studies conducted by a Siberian meteorologist show that the past two years - 2015 and 2016 - were the warmest in the history of meteorological observations. In the next five to six years, warming should continue, the scientist believes. The average air temperature, as a result, will increase by 1.1 degrees.
But soon, says Nikolai Zavalishin, the warming should end. Here the Siberian is in solidarity with the British: a phase of global cooling is coming. So, according to the Siberian theory, we still have an endless winter ahead of us.
Global warming is a myth
While most scientists place the blame for climate change on humanity, a researcher from the Siberian Institute believes that human activity does not bother the planet too much. Cycles of moderate warming and cooling, according to this version, replace each other regardless of human activity, the growth of agriculture and the scope of industry. At the same time, fluctuations in the average temperature on the planet are closely related to the earth's albedo - the reflectivity of our planet.
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The fact is that we get all the energy, in fact, from one main source - from the Sun. However, part of this energy is reflected from the earth's surface and goes into space irrevocably. The other part is absorbed and provides all life on Earth with a happy and productive life.
But different earth's surfaces absorb and reflect light in different ways. Pure snow is able to kick back into space up to 95% of solar radiation, but fat black earth absorbs the same amount.
The more snow and glaciers on the planet, the more sunlight is reflected. Now the glaciers on Earth are in a phase of active melting. However, according to Zavalishin's theory, there is no need to worry about them - when a half-century period of cooling sets in, the balance will be restored.
Who among the scientists is still worth believing? There are quite a few versions of the development of events. Some researchers even promise that in thirty years, in 2047, humanity is waiting for an apocalypse, the cause of which will be unprecedented activity of the Sun. So far, we have only one way to verify this statement - personally live and see.
Margarita Zvyagintseva
The debate among climate experts continues unabated. Moreover, they are, as they say, of a multi-vector nature: so what exactly is happening to our planet? Warming is waiting for her, or on the contrary - cooling?
The first point of view is currently represented among climatologists much broader than the second. However, recently it seemed to be greatly shaken: according to the results of satellite observations, the area of \u200b\u200bice in the Arctic Ocean has increased by 41 percent. The seasonal minimum, which occurs every year in mid-September, was set at 4.8 million square meters. km, while in 2012 this value reached 3.4 million sq. km.
Immediately there was a reaction, reduced to a joyful one: “The global warming hypothesis ended up in a puddle along with its supporters!” “The process we are observing contradicts computer predictions of imminent catastrophic warming.
It is possible that everything will be just the opposite - an increase in the area of ice cover in the Arctic in the summer may be a signal that the world is approaching a cooling period, foretells, for example, the English Daily Mail, referring to the opinions of climate professors . Professor Anastasios Zionis from the University of Wisconsin (USA) is also widely cited, according to whom there is now a “tendency to lower the temperature on the planet”, which “will continue for at least the next 15 years”. The scientist cuts across the shoulder: "There is no doubt that the warming of the climate going on in the 1980s has already stopped, and, apparently, this happened back in 1997."
Fuel to the fire, as usual, added "civilian". A few years ago, the BBC radio station announced a forecast that in 2013 there would be no ice in the Arctic. More than 20 yachts and even one passenger liner decided to celebrate this event with a cruise along the Northwest Passage connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans along the northern tip of the American continent. Either the brave sailors, who remembered the long-standing conversation of BBC experts for six years, forgot to look at the current weather reports, or they believed in their forecast so desperately that they did not bother to study the actual ice situation, but they were surprised to find a real wall of ice in its path. After such an affront, other commentators no longer had any doubts: “Global warming is a myth!”, “New data allow us to speak with confidence more about global cooling that awaits the planet than warming.” I wonder what arguments the supporters of "global warming" will have now?
Arguments, in fact, were on the surface. It's just that in 2012 the area of the Arctic ice cover became a record low for all the years of observations. The relative increase in ice cover this year brings the situation back to just 2000, and not, say, to the mid-1970s, when the peak of cooling was recorded in the 20th century. In fact, given long-term trends, the Arctic is certainly warming, climate scientists say.
Thus, there is undoubtedly an excess of average monthly temperatures and a decrease in the level of groundwater in the subpolar region. As for the ice, much more important than the area is the indicator of their volume and, so to speak, their "old age". So, with regard to the first, according to the data that academician Vladimir Kotlyakov, a world-famous figure in geography and honorary president of the Russian Geographical Society, cited at the just-past III International Arctic Forum, “the average ice thickness has decreased from 2 to 1.5 m, the volume of ice has fallen by 50 percent.” As for the second indicator, if earlier multi-year ice covered up to 60 percent of the Arctic Ocean, now its area does not exceed 30 percent. This has fallen particularly sharply for multi-year ice aged 4 years or more, from 25 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent today. Five times! At the same time, data received from satellites indicate that the process of ice thinning began especially quickly since 2008. And most importantly, scientists involved in the Arctic are convinced that now the processes of ice melting are irreversible.
What can/should/would this lead to? Models built by climatologists paint something like this.
There will be no gradual warming. On the contrary, the process will go "torn", jumps, with the onset and retreat of cold and heat, and hence with the growth of dangerous meteorological phenomena in general. That is, heavy rains, like the current autumn in the European part of Russia, droughts, storms, floods and other similar "joys". How rich was, in particular, the current year. And now we somehow have to live with the awareness of the risk that the catastrophic flood that passed along the Amur may seem like an easy wet cleaning against the background of impending cataclysms.
The melting of the Arctic ice will lead to a change in one of the four main atmospheric jet streams of our planet - the polar one. It will weaken, which is why from the current “zonal” it will become more “meridional”. This will lead to the appearance of blocking situations in the atmosphere - an example of which we experienced in 2010, during an unprecedented drought. As one expert noted, “Warming in the Arctic is leading to more extreme weather at lower latitudes.”
Rise - is already rising, according to Academician Kotlyakov - the level of the oceans. In recent years, the rate of this process has increased from the previous 1.7 mm per year to 3 mm. You can look at the physical map of the world to determine how soon various areas will be flooded. In particular, such key areas for the world economy as the low-lying parts of Holland, Germany, England, the USA, and China.
Russia, of course, is no exception either - moreover, today it is already losing thousands of square kilometers of the northern lowlands. So far, it is tundra, but if the process continues, what will save the oil-bearing Western Siberia from flooding? There and so a swamp in a swamp ...
Thus, the conclusion is simple. It was also voiced at the forum "The Arctic - the Territory of Dialogue" in Salekhard by Academician Kotlyakov. Whether it is warming or cooling is not so important, although, of course, most responsible scientists still talk about warming, but in any case, there are “climate anomalies that are heterogeneous in space and time” and they bring “ambiguous consequences, including within the territory of Russia ".
That is, climate change is already happening, whether we like it or not. “The whole modern way of life on Earth is such that any global climate change can be unfavorable for people,” academician Kotlyakov rightly recalls. – The fact is that the entire current economic structure has developed and rapidly developed only in a narrow period of time - almost in the last century. Because of this, he adapted to one climatic environment.
And the environment, we repeat, is changing before our eyes. This means that today humanity needs to prepare for climate change in any case. And learn to adapt to them.
And this means, in turn, the demand of nature itself to all of us, but especially to our scientists, to start building models not only of a possible future climate, but, above all, of the necessary response to it. Is it possible that a flood is worse than the one that just passed through the Far East? Probably yes. This means that already today we need to build a model of what needs to be done in this case. Is a more severe drought possible than in 2010? So, we create a model of actions for this case. Possible flooding of St. Petersburg? Again, we model countermeasures. Etc.
Then any climate change will no longer be a surprise for our economy, like the ice wall for yachts in the Arctic Ocean.
Alexander Tsyganov (ITAR-TASS, Moscow),
Global warming or cooling? Contrary to forecasts, the area of Arctic glaciers is not decreasing, but increasing. Abnormally low temperatures are recorded in different countries of the world. Is a new "ice age" awaiting the earth?
Photos that should shock the world: snapshots of observations of the white cover of the Arctic. The predictions of most climate scientists in the world have not come true. On Earth, instead of global warming, global cooling is not ruled out.
The area of Arctic glaciers has not decreased over the past 12 months, but has increased by 60 percent. This news is discussed this week by experts from the UN intergovernmental group. And a few days before the start of the discussion in Stockholm, this was also discussed in the European Parliament. One of the well-known politicians in Britain, Nigel Farage, a member of the European Parliament from the Independent Party of Great Britain, could hardly contain his emotions.
“Global climate change for you was an absolute priority in science,” he said. “You almost hysterically announced global warming and taking measures to combat it. "Less than tens of millions of citizens have been forced to live on fuel economy. Look how the manufacturing industry has suffered with systematic cutbacks. It's time for us to stop this absurdity already. There are photos from NASA. It can be seen that the ice cover has more than doubled! We are to blame for that they made the stupidest collective mistake of believing in the speculation about global warming."
So why should mankind still expect warming or cooling? The controversy is getting hotter. Russian scientists adhere to the concept of global cooling. In one of the oldest observatories in the world - Pulkovo (in St. Petersburg) - they have been observing the main celestial star for many years. It is with the activity of the Sun that Russian scientists attribute the increase in the area of ice on Earth. The sun, scientists say, is getting dimmer every year.
"Solar activity affects the climate on Earth," confirms Vladimir Obridko, head of the Department of Physics of Solar-Terrestrial Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. effect of solar activity. The photometric size of the Sun somewhat decreases, the luminosity decreases. "
Global warming, which scientists talked about before, was mainly based on computer forecasts, that is, scientists tried to model the behavior of nature. What is now being recorded in the Arctic is forcing a change in approaches to climate observation. Now we have to analyze long-term observations of the weather.
The Earth has already faced global cooling many thousands of years ago. The so-called "Ice Age", which even powerful mammoths could not resist. But in the near future, the repetition of such events, scientists, of course, exclude. But lowering temperatures even by a few degrees can greatly change the situation on the entire planet.
Of course, mankind will not have to hide in caves again, to make fire. But scientists do not exclude the appearance of the so-called "explosive winters" - seasons with sharp and unexpected cold temperatures. There is already evidence of this: snow falls in the off-season in different parts of the world,. The upcoming winter in our country will not be distinguished by anomalous indicators. A sharp drop in temperature will begin, according to the calculations of astrophysicists, next season.
“According to our calculations, literally next year a slow decrease will begin, the beginning of a decrease in temperature, since the power of solar radiation has been decreasing since 1991 and will reach a minimum of radiation approximately in 2043 plus or minus 11 years,” said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the Solar Space Research Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory.
In new forecasts, the temperature on the planet will drop to a minimum in 2060. However, the theory of global cooling, as well as warming, is only a hypothesis. Scientists will have to carefully monitor the behavior of the Sun in the next decade, because the power of its radiation began to be studied only from the beginning of the 80s - the period is too short for accurate conclusions.
). He predicts that global warming, which will come in less than 50 years, will lead to terrible cataclysms: earthquakes, tsunamis and a new ice age. It turns out that Zharvin is not alone in the scientific world. Khabibullo ABDUSAMATOV, Head of the Space Research Laboratory of the Main (Pulkovo) Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is sure that it will start getting colder in five years! The St. Petersburg astronomer explains the causes of climate change in his own way.
The sun is shining, but it does not warm
Khabibullo Abdusamatov believes that the Sun is to blame for everything - both in global warming and in the coming cooling. He discovered that throughout the 20th century, our star shone brighter and brighter, which is why the average temperature on Earth rose by 0.6 degrees per 100 years (these data are considered evidence of global warming). And in the early 90s, the Sun stopped baking so zealously.
We did not feel this because we continue to bask on the remnants of the heat that the planet has accumulated. But stocks don't last forever. It will take a few years, and the temperature will begin to fall, - explains the scientist. - The ocean accumulates heat in the first place, and it also determines the climate on the planet. And oceanologists say that since 2003 the upper layers of the ocean have been cooling.
Abdusamatov spoke about his theory at the symposium of the International Astronomical Union and at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism of the Russian Academy of Sciences. There were no serious objections.
Greenhouse effect - fiction
But what about the greenhouse effect, which seems to be to blame for global warming? An astronomer from St. Petersburg is sure: man has nothing to do with it at all, and there is no greenhouse effect in nature!
The scheme of this effect is familiar to every summer resident, - explains Khabibullo. - Greenhouse glass transmits the sun's rays, but infrared radiation and carbon dioxide from the ground does not let back. Due to this, the temperature in the room rises.
But in the atmosphere this "glass" simply does not exist! This was proved by scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory. Carbon dioxide travels quietly through the air layers and does not think to accumulate under the skies. Abdusamatov refers to the research of polar explorers. They drilled four kilometers of ice near the Vostok station in Antarctica and Greenland and took samples of rocks that are several hundred thousand years old. In both cases, it turned out that the amount of carbon dioxide increased before, and the temperature on Earth changed regularly. But the accumulation of gas did not precede, but, on the contrary, was a consequence of warming.
This means that warming has nothing to do with the greenhouse effect! - says Khabibullo.
The scientific community reacted painfully to this statement by Abdusamatov. After all, 168 countries have signed the Kyoto Protocol, which states: the greenhouse effect must be combated, emissions of harmful gases into the atmosphere must be reduced. Hundreds of billions of dollars are spent to fight the scourge, dozens of scientists defend dissertations.
Let's start freezing in 2012
Abdusamatov established that the Sun shines stronger or weaker, obeying strict cycles: 11 years and centuries. And it won't be long before it gets colder. The secular cycle of the small glow of the Sun will begin in 2012. The temperature on the planet will begin to decrease and by 2050 will reach a minimum. On average, it will become 1.2 - 1.3 degrees colder than now. Trifle? But after all, global warming is measured by even smaller figures - 0.6 degrees per hundred years! Khabibullo cites as an example the cold season of 1645-1715. In the new ice age, humanity will have to freeze in the same way.
Then the Seine and the Thames were covered with ice, all the canals of Holland froze, - Abdusamatov scares (for comparison: this January it was about +10 degrees in Paris, and in London, and in Amsterdam - what kind of ice is there! - Ed.). - On the thick crust of the icy Dnieper and Moskva rivers, our ancestors organized fairs. Abnormal cold frightened the Vikings who conquered Greenland. Seeing that glaciers were advancing on the previously green island, they decided to get out.
In Russia, the lack of sunlight will become noticeable in 15 years, winters will become longer and colder. And by 2050, deep snow will cover the north of the country. The white snow will reflect sunlight, and this will cause even more cooling.
Why does the sun shine unevenly? So far, there is no consensus. In the bowels of the star, thermonuclear reactions are raging, most likely, the inconstancy of the star is associated with them. When the temperature in the solar core rises, the pressure rises - the Sun "inflates" and the Earth gets more light and heat from it. It is more convenient to study the details from space. Employees of the Pulkovo Observatory have developed special equipment, and the cosmonauts promised that in 2008 they would capture it on the ISS in order to measure changes in the shape and diameter of the Sun as part of the Astrometry project. These data will help to more accurately predict the timing and strength of global cooling.
BY THE WAY
One of Khabibullo Abdusamatov's arguments is that it periodically gets warmer and colder on Mars. And exactly at the same time as on Earth! These are the results of recent NASA research. But there are no Martians on the Red Planet, much less factories, cars and other sources of greenhouse gases. This means that the climate of both us and our neighbors is influenced exclusively by the Sun and its “mood” changes.
AND AT THIS TIME
In the Australian town of Dubbo (it is located in the state of New South Wales), the cold snap has been going on for a hundred years! While global warming is being talked about all over the world, daily air temperatures have been steadily dropping throughout the 20th century. Summers there are now much cooler than they were in the early 1900s, and winter frosts are cracking more and more often! These paradoxical data are presented by Mark Howden, an employee of the Australian research organization CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization). The melting of the ice sheet that covered a large part of North America was the main cause of a sharp cooling that began about 12.8 thousand years ago, British and Canadian scientists write in an article published on Thursday in the journal Nature.
2. During the period of severe cooling of the climate, which lasted about one and a half thousand years, in some regions the temperature was 15 degrees lower than the current one, and the transition from a warmer climate occurred in just a decade.
A study conducted by Julian Murton of the University of Sussex and his colleagues made it possible to prove the hypothesis that the cause of abrupt climate change was the melting of a giant glacier that occupied the eastern part of modern Canada, and then the outburst of the periglacial Lake Agassiz and the ingress of huge volumes of fresh water into north Atlantic.
Colder and lighter fresh water formed a "screen" on the surface of the ocean, cooling the surface air, resulting in much more drift ice, and the Gulf Stream - a warm current that determines the climate of almost the entire northern hemisphere - was "chopped off" and stopped reaching the northern hemisphere. latitudes.
The authors of the work recall that the hypothesis about the fatal role of Lake Agassiz in the onset of cooling was published in Nature back in 1989 by a group of scientists led by Wallace Broecker. However, there was no definitive evidence for this connection.
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| Glacier. |
Merton's group found the last missing link in this chain - traces of powerful water flows leading from the glacial lake to the ocean. They studied sediments in the Mackenzie Delta region and found signs of severe erosion that could only be explained by the overflow and outburst of an ancient glacial lake.
3.The problem of climate shifts taking place on our planet has acquired unprecedented relevance in recent years. Literally everyone, from an academician to a housewife, is not averse to speculating about global warming today. The media are happy to replicate the frightening predictions of experts who cannot agree among themselves on exactly what the "greenhouse effect" threatens humanity with - a global flood or a terrible drought. Meanwhile, according to Russian scientists, in the coming decades, a completely different misfortune awaits us, and global warming will be replaced by global cooling during our lifetime, and there, you see, not far from a new ice age.
According to experts of the Main Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Pulkovo), the period of low temperatures will be replaced by warming only at the beginning of the 22nd century. Scientists base their conclusions on data from observations of eleven-year and centenary fluctuations in solar activity. The researchers claim that in the 20th century, the Sun increased the amount of radiated energy, and now the flux has reached a maximum, but soon a decline in solar activity will begin. After that, a decrease in the average annual temperature of the Earth's surface should be expected.
"Based on our research, we have developed a scenario for global cooling of the Earth's climate by the middle of this century and the onset of the next 200-year cycle of global climate warming at the beginning of the 22nd century," said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research sector at the Pulkovo Observatory, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, speaking at a joint conference of scientists and environmental activists in London.
According to the researcher, the cooling will begin in 2012-2015, and its peak will be in 2055-2060. By this time, the temperature may drop to the level of the so-called Maunder minimum, which took place at the end of the 17th century. Then in Holland all canals froze, and in Greenland, due to the advance of glaciers, people were forced to leave many settlements.
As Abdusamatov said, new confirmations of this hypothesis came to him and his colleagues from foreign researchers. "The other day I received a very important letter by e-mail. Western colleagues reported that in 2003-2005 some cooling of the upper layers of the World Ocean was observed, which is fully consistent with the results of our research," the scientist said.
The consequences of future climate change can be very serious, says Khabibullo Abdusamatov. In his opinion, the governments of the world powers should prepare in advance for the cold weather.utro.ru. news
http://www.scilib.netThere is evidence that the area of ice cover suddenly began to increase in the Arctic, and the activity of the Sun dropped to a century-old minimum.
Nature turns on the refrigerator, according to the Rossiyskaya Gazeta website. The European satellite CryoSat recorded that the mass of the ice cover was 9 thousand cubic kilometers last autumn, which is much more than previously observed. And the hope for the growth of ice in the Arctic appeared in the summer, when the area of ice cover reached 5.1 million square kilometers. This is 1.5 times higher than in 2012.
It is the Arctic that has become one of the main arguments of the supporters of global warming, recalls Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The area of multi-year ice over the past ten years in the Arctic has decreased by about 40%. The glaciers that emerged 5,500 years ago “shrink” by 90% during the 20th century. And then the CryoSat satellite brought unexpected good news: the Arctic is "coming" to its senses.
The second blow to the theory of global warming was dealt by the Sun. Its activity has reached a minimum in 100 years. This could be the beginning of a new ice age. British professor Richard Harrison argues that the Earth again needs to prepare for the so-called Maunder minimum - the period from 1645 to 1715, when a long decline in solar activity led to the "Little Ice Age", the coldest in more than 500 years since the XIV century.
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, an employee of the Pulkovo Observatory, also speaks about global cooling. According to him, the activity of our luminary is declining. This can cause a serious drop in the temperature of the World Ocean and, as a result, lead to global cooling on the planet. A similar opinion has just been expressed by the Japanese oceanologist Mototaka Nakamura. According to his estimates, it will get colder so much that the ice cover can spread almost to the current tropics, which, by the way, has already happened in the history of the Earth. And in total, 15 ice ages of 10 thousand years each were recorded on the planet. Now we live at the end of another warm interglacial period, and we must prepare for the entry into the next ice age.
However, such statements by a number of scientists do not mean at all that a final verdict has been issued. Heated disputes between supporters and opponents of the theory of global warming are going on with varying degrees of success. At first, the globalists clearly took the lead, pointing out that over the past 100 years there has been an unprecedented increase in the average temperature on Earth. This means that greenhouse gases, the emission of which is associated with human activities, are to blame for everything. The result of the disputes was the famous Kyoto Protocol, which requires countries to drastically limit the emission of harmful gases.
Opponents of this scenario, however, found counterarguments and removed the blame for global warming from man. The most interesting data, covering 750,000 years, was obtained from the study of Antarctic ice. It turned out that the three previous warm interglacials (and we are now living in the same period) were much warmer than the current one, that is, the average temperature on Earth in the modern era is 1.5-2 degrees lower than it was in those distant times. But at that time, man had not yet appeared on Earth, and there was no one to blame for natural disasters. This means that nothing extraordinary is happening in nature now, all the current “phenomena” have already happened, and without human participation.
And, finally, the main argument of the opponents of the anthropogenic theory. According to Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Kotlyakov, the warmest peak of the current interglacial period was already passed 5-6 thousand years ago. Now the global temperature on Earth continues to decrease, that is, things are moving towards cooling. True, it will not come tomorrow. The movement will be very slow, stretching over many hundreds and thousands of years. Opponents of the Kyoto Protocol believe that humans should be acquitted of the charge of global warming. The reason is not him, but natural cycles. The reasons for such global climate fluctuations are not yet clear to scientists.
Academician Kotlyakov also believes that periods of excruciating heat, which now occur almost annually, fit into the overall picture. With a general trend towards cooling, short-term bursts of temperature increase are possible. For example, over the last millennium, the warmest previous epoch falls on the 10th-11th centuries AD. e., when the Vikings sailed far to the North and discovered Greenland. And then, in the 16th and 17th centuries, came the Little Ice Age. Europe had such cold winters that in many parts of Europe that are considered warm today, people skated on frozen canals.
