Cycles and their impact on humanity. Solar cycles Eleven-year solar cycle

As you know, not so long ago, we, dear colleagues, witnessed the next 23rd maximum of the 11th year cycle of solar activity. But are there any other activity cycles besides the aforementioned 11 year old?

Before answering this question, let me briefly remind you what solar activity is. The Great Soviet Encyclopedia gives the following definition to this term: Solar activity is a set of phenomena observed on the Sun ... These phenomena include the formation of sunspots, torches, prominences, flocculi, filaments, Changes in the intensity of radiation in all parts of the spectrum.

Basically, these phenomena are due to the fact that there are areas on the sun with a magnetic field that differs from the general one. These areas are called active. Their number, size, as well as their distribution on the Sun are not constant, but change with time. Consequently, over time, the activity of our daylight also changes. Moreover, this change in activity is cyclical. So in short we can explain the essence of the subject of our conversation.

During periods of cycle maximum, Active Regions are located all over the solar disk, they are numerous and well developed. During the minimum period, they are located near the equator; there are not many of them, and they are poorly developed. The visible manifestation of active regions are sunspots, flares,

prominences, filaments, flocculi, etc. The most famous and studied is the 11-year cycle, discovered by Heinrich Schwabe and confirmed by Robert Wolf, who studied the change in solar activity using the Wolf index he proposed over two and a half centuries. The change in the activity of the sun with a period equal to 11.1 years is called the Schwabe-Wolff law. It is also assumed that there are 22, 44 and 55 year activity cycles. It is established that the value of the maximum cycles varies with a period of about 80 years. These periods appear directly on the graph of solar activity.

But scientists, having studied rings on tree cuts, banded clay, stalactites, fossil deposits, mollusk shells and other signs, suggested the existence of longer cycles, lasting about 110, 210, 420 years. As well as the so-called secular duration and supersecular cycles of 2400, 35000, 100,000 and even 200 - 300 million years.

But why pay so much attention to the study of solar activity? The answer lies in the fact that our daylight has a huge impact on the earth and on earthly life.

An increase in the intensity of the so-called "solar wind" - the flow of charged particles - corpuscles - emitted by the Sun, can cause not only beautiful auroras, but also disturbances in the earth's magnetosphere - Magnetic storms - which affect not only equipment, which can lead to man-made accidents, Noi is not directly human health. And not only physical, but also mental.

During peak periods, for example, suicides are more frequent. The activity of the sun also affects crop yields, births and deaths, and much more.

In general, any amateur astronomer can, by conducting regular observations of the Sun, compare its graph with graphs of the intensity of any phenomena associated with the atmosphere, biosphere, and others.

11 year cycle. ("Schwabe cycle" or "Schwabe-Wolf cycle") is the most prominent cycle of solar activity. Accordingly, the statement about the presence of an 11-year cyclicity in solar activity is sometimes called the "Schwabe-Wolf law".

The approximately ten-year periodicity in the increase and decrease in the number of sunspots on the Sun was first noticed in the first half of the 19th century by the German astronomer G. Schwabe, and then by R. Wolf. The “eleven-year” cycle is conditionally called: its length for the 18th-20th centuries varied from 7 to 17 years, and in the 20th century, on average, it was closer to 10.5 years.

This cycle is characterized by a fairly rapid (average of about 4 years) increase in the number of sunspots, as well as other manifestations of solar activity, followed by a slower (about 7 years) decrease. Other periodic changes are also observed during the cycle, for example, a gradual shift of the zone of sunspot formation to the equator ("Spörer's law").

The solar dynamo theory is usually used to explain such periodicity in the appearance of spots.

Although various indices can be used to determine the level of solar activity, the most commonly used for this is the annual average Wolf number. The 11-year cycles determined using this index are conventionally numbered starting from 1755. The 24th cycle of solar activity began in January 2008 (according to other estimates - in December 2008 or January 2009).

The 22-year cycle (the "Hale cycle") is essentially a doubling of the Schwabe cycle. It was discovered after the relationship between sunspots and the Sun's magnetic fields was understood at the beginning of the 20th century.

It turned out that in one cycle of spot activity, the total magnetic field of the Sun changes sign: if in the minimum of one Schwabe cycle the background magnetic fields are predominantly positive near one of the Sun's poles and negative near the other, then after about 11 years the picture changes to the opposite.

Every 11 years, the characteristic arrangement of magnetic polarities in sunspot groups also changes. Thus, in order for the total magnetic field of the Sun to return to its original state, two Schwabe cycles must pass, that is, about 22 years.

Secular cycles of solar activity according to radiocarbon data.

The secular cycle of solar activity (the "Gleisberg cycle") has a length of about 70-100 years and manifests itself in modulations of the 11-year cycle. The last maximum of the secular cycle was observed in the middle of the 20th century (near the 19th 11-year cycle), the next one should fall approximately in the middle of the 21st century.

There is also a two-century cycle (“Süss cycle” or “de Vries cycle”), as the minima of which one can consider a steady decrease in solar activity occurring approximately once every 200 years, lasting for many decades (the so-called global minima of solar activity) - the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), Spörer's minimum (1450-1540), Wolf's minimum (1280-1340) and others.

Millennium cycles. Solar Hallstatt cycle with a period of 2,300 years according to radiocarbon analysis.

Radiocarbon analysis also indicates the existence of cycles with a period of about 2300 years (the "Hollstatt cycle") or more.

"Oxygen Effect"

Radiobiologists say that the biological effect of ionizing radiation increases with increasing oxygen concentration in the body. This principle formed the basis of the method of early stimulation of the mental abilities of children, discovered by South African doctors and currently used in various countries. In the course of observations, it was noted that women who received oxygen during pregnancy gave birth to children that were noticeably ahead of their peers in terms of the level and pace of mental development, and vice versa, the manifestation of hypoxia during this period in women led to the opposite result.

It should be borne in mind that the oxygen content in the body increases with increasing atmospheric pressure. Therefore, on days when the pressure is increased, the effect of background radiation is enhanced.

Eleven year solar cycle

E. S. Vinogradov carried out a very interesting study of the dependence of the birth of outstanding people (geniuses) on bursts of cosmic radiation generated by solar flares and extensive air showers of particles. In the years of "moderate sun" gifted people are born 10% more than in the years of "passive" and "active" sun.

The eleven-year solar cycle is characterized by strong fluctuations in the relative number of sunspots, called "Wolf numbers". According to the average annual Wolf numbers, the years of passive, moderate and active sun were distinguished for the period from 1700 to 1976.

Then biographical data (dates of birth) were considered: 1603 biologists; 1135 physicists; 1298 mathematicians and mechanics; 3774 writers and 929 especially outstanding people of all specialties. As a result, a clear relationship was revealed between the birth of outstanding people and powerful chromospheric flares on the Sun, as a result of which jets of flare wind are ejected (streams of charged particles, mainly protons).

Powerful chromospheric flares occur from time to time on the sun. When the Earth enters a flare wind jet, its geomagnetic field is strongly perturbed, and as a result, the radiation background increases by 100–1000%. And it lasts from several minutes to hours. This phenomenon is usually called a "magnetic storm", in the language of specialists it is called "solar proton events". They occur mainly in the years of "moderate sun". It is they, according to the "ray hypothesis" that contribute to the increase in the number of births of gifted children.

birthday feature

Neural micronetworks appear in the brain of a child at the very end of his intrauterine development. Therefore, it is natural to expect that solar activity will have the strongest influence on the makings of a person's mental abilities on the day of his birth (or close to this day). In order to test this assumption, the birthdays of gifted people and the main indicator of solar activity, fluctuations in terrestrial magnetism, were compared (the values ​​of the geomagnetic disturbance index have been known for every day since 1884).

The study analyzed the birthdays of: 705 physicists; 876 biologists and 264 especially prominent figures born after 1884. As a result, it was found that favorable solar activity on the day of birth (or very close in time to this day) is important for the formation of good mental inclinations of a person. Of particular interest is the fact that this study revealed the dependence of a person's inclinations on the nature of solar activity on the day of his birth.

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1

The program of extracurricular activities for the course "Festive-event cycle" was compiled in accordance with the requirements of the Federal State Educational Standard of the IEO and based on the program of Akopova E.S., Ivanova E.Yu. "Festive-event cycle of school life" ("Programs of educational institutions: Primary school: 1 -4 grades. Teaching method. set "Planet of knowledge": Program of extracurricular activities in elementary school, 2012).The program presented in the article is adapted and developed by teachers Ushakova O.A., Politti E.V.

<...> <...>GEF IEO and on the basis of the program Akopova E.S., Ivanova E.Yu. "Festive and eventful cycle of school life"<...>They are connected with the natural cycle, which was important in the transition from one type of labor activity to another.<...>The calendar-event cycle of "big" holidays sets the form of identity, determines the nature of the big

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No. 1 [Automation, telemechanization and communications in the oil industry, 2015]

<...> <...> <...> <...>

Preview: Automation, telemechanization and communications in the oil industry No. 1 2015.pdf (0.7 Mb)

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The program of extracurricular activities developed by the author of the article for the course "The World Around Us" was compiled in accordance with the requirements of the Federal State Educational Standard of the IEO and based on the program of V.A. "Edited by N.F. Vinogradova, 2011

Balashikha, Moscow region PROGRAM OF EXTRA COURSE ACTIVITIES "FESTIVE-EVENT CYCLE" PROGRAM<...>extracurricular activities on the course "Festive and event cycle" is compiled in accordance with the requirements<...>GEF IEO and on the basis of the program Akopova E.S., Ivanova E.Yu. "Festive and eventful cycle of school life"

4

The article is devoted to the creative path and works of the Soviet writer Yu. V. Trifonov.

In any case, the "Moscow cycle" is a different kind of literature than, say, my first novel, The Students.

5

Industry economics method. instructions for control work

Methodical instructions are intended for performing tests on the discipline "Economics of the industry" for students of correspondence courses in the direction of preparation 080100.62 "Economics" training profile "Economics of enterprises and organizations (engineering)". Methodological instructions include the subject of examinations, an approximate plan for the implementation of work, recommendations on the content and design of the work.

development of the sector……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12 3.4 Life cycle<...>industry characteristics; production volumes and rates of development of the industry; key growth factors; life cycle<...>and those secondary factors that have a strong influence on primary demand. 3.4 Life cycle<...>industry When evaluating the "life cycle" you should remember that you are looking at the industry as a whole.<...>These phases represent the "life cycle" of an industry.

Preview: Industry Economics.pdf (0.3 Mb)

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ONTOGENESIS, ABUNDANCE AND AGE SPECTRA OF POPULATIONS OF THE SEDGE ... CANDIDATE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

M.: MOSCOW ORDER OF LENIN AND THE ORDER OF LABOR RED BANNER STATE PEDAGOGICAL INSTITUTE NAMED AFTER V. I. LENIN

ONTOGENESIS, ABUNDANCE, AND AGE SPECTS OF POPULATIONS

J However, the long life cycle of this plant and, moreover,<...>kuz-^ybz can be represented in the following way: closed yayaage ottga bud i: the beginning of the fiery cycle<...>"development of the maternal shoot, but; the life cycle of the vegetatively elevated individual does not end.<...>Ay)1yC;.1 complete its life cycle ; carried: for fear of its fearful prolongation, due to - "<...>For the first time, a large life cycle 6 "i-k~x / iae / tysty&s \ sculpted edifpkatore of vegetation cover is described

Preview: ONTOGENESIS, ABUNDANCE AND AGE SPECTRA OF POPULATIONS OF THE SLAGE SLAGE.pdf (0.0 Mb)

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The article considers emergency protection systems (EPS) of oil and gas production facilities. The role and place of PAZ systems in the automation environment, including process control systems and distributed control systems, are described. The main functions implemented by PAZ systems are considered. The implementation principles are described and the concept of the "full life cycle" process of SIS systems is defined. The stages of the life cycle of PAZ systems, the goals of their implementation, the input and output documents of the stages, as well as the principles of planning work on PAZ systems are described.

The concept of the full life cycle of SIS systems The concept of the full life cycle provides that<...>Table 2 Overview of the life cycle of SIS systems Stages of the life cycle of SIS systems Block number in fig. 4 Name<...>Life cycle of work planning on ESD systems.<...>5] taking into account the life cycle stages (LC) of the ESD system in accordance with GOST IEC 61511.<...>The life cycle of software for ESD systems is shown in fig. 7.

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The article considers the experience of strategic planning and market positioning of the Department of Economic Analysis and Audit of Voronezh State University. The active policy of the department allows you to flexibly respond to changes in the educational services market, promptly make adjustments to the curriculum (in the variable part) and open new educational programs based on the needs of the business community, participate in competition for future students, implement popular innovative developments and scientific research

general professional disciplines, introduction to the specialty 1-4 courses (4 years) Training in three academic cycles<...>: "Humanitarian, social and economic cycle", "Mathematical and natural science cycle", "Professional<...>cycle "- with division into basic and variable parts Specializations of training of specialists Training profile

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IMPROVEMENT OF METHODS OF DETERMINATION OF TAXATION INDICATORS OF TREE STANDS FROM AERIAL PICTURES ABSTRACT DIS. ... CANDIDATE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

SIBERIAN ORDER OF LABOR RED BANNER TECHNOLOGICAL INSTITUTE

Purpose and objectives of research. The goal was to increase the reliability of interpretation of the main taxation indicators within the framework of forest inventory technology based on a rational combination of ground taxation with cameral interpretation of aerial photographs

Under the guidance and, with the direct participation of the author, a whole cycle of "research from theoretical

Preview: IMPROVEMENT OF METHODS FOR DETERMINING TAXATION INDICATORS OF TREE STANDS FROM AERIAL IMAGES.pdf (0.0 Mb)

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THE EFFECT OF IONIZING RADIATION ON THE FIRST MITOTIC CYCLE IN THE ROOT MERISTEM OF BARLEY SEEDS ABSTRACT DIS. ... CANDIDATE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

ALL-UNION SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURAL RADIOLOGY

Purpose and objectives of research. The purpose of this work is to study the effect of a wide range of doses of gamma radiation during irradiation of seeds, ranging from stimulating the growth and productivity of plants...

As a manuscript KULIKOVA Tatyana Ivanovna THE ACTION OF IONIZER RADIATION ON THE FIRST "GOTHIC CYCLE"<...>a wide range of doses from stimulating to inhibiting plant growth (5-100 Gy) for the first mitotic cycle<...>The research results were reported and discussed at the All-Union Symposium "Cell Cycle" (Leningrad<...>use of ionizing radiation in crop production (Moscow, December 1980), at the meeting "Cell Cycle<...>over a range of doses from stimulating to inhibiting plant growth (5-100 Gy) for the first mitotic cycle

Preview: EFFECT OF IONIZING RADIATION ON THE FIRST MITOTIC CYCLE IN THE ROOT MERISTEM OF BARLEY SEED.pdf (0.0 Mb)

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Implementation of data collection and processing algorithms in automated systems based on multifunctional I/O board L-783

Publishing house PSUTI

Purpose of the work: study of algorithms for collecting and processing information on the example of an automated system for measuring the coordinates of displacements of the ends of compressor blades.

Loop counter stack allows nesting of loops up to 4 levels using a hardware loop counter<...>cycles. Status and mode bits.<...>cycles.<...>cycle completion.<...>wait cycles).

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SHAPING AND REPRODUCTIVE CAPABILITY OF FOREST TREE SPECIES IN CONNECTION WITH THEIR STRUCTURAL DISSYMMETRIC ORGANIZATION ABSTRACT DIS. ... DOCTORS OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

M.: MOSCOW AGRICULTURAL ACADEMY NAMED AFTER K. A. TIMIRYAZEV

Purpose and objectives of research. The purpose of the work was to clarify more deeply the significance of the phenomenon of dissymmetry in the formative life activity of woody plants using the example of the main forest-forming species.

The ambiguity of the concepts "divergence angle" and "leaf cycle" for angiosperms and conifers.<...>conditionality of HS it of each feature included in the combination, WHSD are combined into cycles of links right<...>A deeper analysis can be carried out, ; ^ “distributing the values ​​of characteristics over the cycles of links; Example<...>spirals in one leaf cycle on an annual shoot; 5.<...>phases corresponds to the number of leaves in one leaf cycle at this opening angle; 6.

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No. 12 [Problems of economics and management of the oil and gas complex, 2018]

Economic problems of all areas of activity of the oil and gas complex, issues of corporate governance, analysis of the state and trends in the development of the oil market.

cycle "partial liquefaction at gas distribution stations (GDS) or automobile gas-filling<...>"(External refrigerant cycle") full liquefaction using an external refrigerant (nitrogen, propane<...>both previous cycles with a fluidization factor of up to 100%.<...>Description of liquefaction technology (cycle , liquefaction factor) Sales segment d.<...>Life Cycle Management System. Development of the product concept and technologies.

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Protection and processing of confidential documents

The educational and methodological complex contains the program of the training course, methodological recommendations for preparing for seminars, methodological developments for independent work, tasks for self-examination, a list of questions for offset. The manual has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of the State Educational Standard for Higher Professional Education and is intended for students studying in the specialty "Organization and Technology of Information Security".

Connection with legal, economic, informational and technical cycles of disciplines, protection methodology<...>Document flow and "life cycle" of the document.<...>The unity of the index for the entire "life cycle" of the document.<...>Indicators of the "life cycle" of the document. Accounting indicators.

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DENDROCLIMATOLOGY OF ROCK OAK AND GARTVIS OAK PLANTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CAUCASUS ABSTRACT DIS. ... CANDIDATE OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

VORONEZH STATE FOREST ACADEMY

Purpose and objectives of research. The aim of the research is to study the long-term dynamics and cyclicity of the growth of sessile oak and oak Hartvis in connection with climatic factors and the development of a dendroclimatic forecast in the conditions of the North Caucasus.

The cycles of growth dynamics of various sizes are identified, including those close to eleven years old sunny<...>average graph eleven year old <...>average graph eleven year old cycle of solar activity for the period from 1945 to 1996 (1), corresponding to<...>third order after eleven year old smoothings in all tinas of the wood of this breed coincide.<...>Using the plot of the average eleven year old cycle of solar activity, for a period with a high amplitude

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M.: PROMEDIA

The mechanisms and results of predicting trends in the dynamics of the yield of grapes in the region, taking into account solar activity, are presented. A regression model has been built that describes the process of formation of the wine material sales price under the influence of yield variations.

cycle).<...>The forecast period (2009-2017) refers to the twenty-fourth eleven year old solar cycle<...>solar activity of the second type (1944-1954 - the eighteenth and 1986-1997 - the twenty-second eleven year olds <...>cycles).<...>Received a forecast for the entire period eleven year old solar cycle based on information

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For future gerontological studies, the results of studies obtained at the intersection of geophysics, astronomy and biology and indicating the existing links between the indicators of living objects and cosmophysical factors may be of particular interest. The paper presents data on the main astronomical factors that are potentially capable of causing changes in gravitational effects on the biosphere as a human habitat on a regular basis. Among these factors are the movements of the Earth and the Moon, described by equations known in astronomy: the equation of equinoxes, the equation of time, as well as the main perturbations from the Sun (evection, variation and annual inequality), derived from the theory of the motion of the Moon. On the basis of the sum of the main perturbations from the Sun, the so-called λD-function, the relationships of fluctuations of the so-called "computer time", solar radiation energy in the range of 605–607 nm, as well as the concentration of hemoglobin and erythrocytes with the main perturbations from the Sun were studied. A conclusion was made about the universal nature of the impact of the movements of the Earth and the Moon on the biosphere. Tables are given for the period from 01.01.2015 to 12.31.2016 with calculated values ​​of the λD function, potentially important for the analysis of their relationship with temporal changes in various body parameters. The patterns obtained by comparing the changes in different biomarkers with the course of the values ​​of the λD function from the tables can be predictive in the study of the functioning of the human body and the biosphere over astronomical periods. The studies were carried out in Antarctica, where the effects of artificial electromagnetic fields are excluded, at Vostok (1998–1999) and Novolazarevskaya (2003–2004) stations.

What does the period of the annual movement of the Earth in orbit mean for human life or, for example, the cycle eleven years old <...>solar electromagnetic impact associated with the study of the sensitivity of biosphere indicators to eleven year old <...>solar activity cycle and geomagnetic activity indices, as well as to the interplanetary magnetic field<...>cycle .<...>cycle .

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The Large Hadron Collider has been restarted, scientists are waiting for new discoveries. The Large Hadron Collider (LHC or LHC), the world's most powerful particle accelerator, has been restarted after a two-year equipment upgrade. The Air Force reports that protons are already being sent down one of the collider's "tunnels" and at relatively low energy levels. If all goes according to plan, collisions of elementary particles will resume in about a month at energies up to 13 teraelectronvolts, which is twice the performance of the LHC before reconstruction. During the previous inclusion of the collider, scientists obtained evidence for the existence of the Higgs boson - an elementary particle predicted decades ago, necessary in the framework of the Standard Model. It describes electromagnetic, weak and strong interaction of all elementary particles.

SEASONS FOUND ON THE SUN American scientists have discovered a previously unknown two-year cycle of the solar<...>activity (along with eleven years old). <...>When two cycles are superimposed on each other, the most dangerous solar disturbances for the Earth arise.<...>in the 1940s, the observation of astronomer Mstislav Gnevyshev about two peaks of solar activity during eleven year old <...>cycle .

21

Singing - space of life articles, materials

Nizhny Novgorod State Conservatory (Academy) M.I. Glinka

The publication contains articles and materials of the Honored Artist of the Russian Federation, Professor of the Nizhny Novgorod Conservatory M.G. Amelina concerning questions of vocal art and performance.

First: cycle C.<...>There are eight numbers in the cycle.<...>, cycle B.<...>cycle on poems by M.<...>Tishchenko Sad songs (vocal cycle) Vocal cycle on the verses of M.

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22

Abstract of lectures on the academic discipline "Information systems for managing a manufacturing company"

Publishing house PSUTI

The purpose of the discipline "Information systems for managing a manufacturing company" is to study issues covering the main theoretical and applied aspects of managing a manufacturing company, the main trends and prospects for the development of PMIS, as well as the development of modern software tools used to manage business processes of modern companies in the manufacturing sector. The abstract of lectures is part of the educational and methodological complex for the discipline "Information systems for the management of a manufacturing company", the best results will be obtained when using the abstract in conjunction with other materials of the complex.

.); an iterative cycle in which developers, as the IP application begins to take shape<...>CRP system generates a plan for the distribution of production capacity required to complete each cycle<...>The term "closed loop" (closed loop) reflects the main feature of this concept, which consists in<...>the company's management should be able to analyze the status of current transactions, a detailed analysis of the cycle<...>The process of transformation from the first type to the second is called the sales life cycle, and consists of a series of

Preview: Lecture notes on the academic discipline Information systems for managing a manufacturing company in the areas of training 03/38/02 - Management, 03/38/05 - Business Informatics, 03/27/05 - Innovation.pdf (0.3 Mb)

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No. 5 [Environmental protection in the oil and gas complex, 2018]

Environmental protection, environmental protection measures, ecology and industrial safety in the oil and gas complex, diagnostics of the corrosion state of equipment, pipelines

target vector per cycle .<...>In Asia, China and Japan are leading the cycle economy (2003).<...>The 2008 Eurodirective is betting on the cycle economy.<...>The quality of the cycle is affected by all stages and hierarchical levels (Fig. 2).<...>Biogenic and technogenic cycles: a - analogy of cycles; b - change of the status of the material flow in recycling

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Introduction to Organizational Psychology

This reader is a textbook for the course "Introduction to Organizational Psychology" for students of the specialty 030301 Psychology. Organizational psychology is a relatively young discipline with certain problems of systematization of theoretical and practical developments. The anthology contains texts of foreign and domestic authors. Their choice is due, in addition to quality requirements, to the fact that these works are not always available and at the same time reveal the basic content of the discipline. The texts are given both in full and with some abbreviations. Reader is intended for students of specialty 030301 Psychology. The discipline "Introduction to Organizational Psychology" in accordance with the State Educational Standard and curriculum is studied in the fifth semester. It is planned to read 16 hours of lectures, conduct 34 hours of laboratory classes, perform tests, and pass a test. The anthology contains materials reflecting the content of the following topics: "The subject and methods of organizational psychology", "The concept and main characteristics of organizations", "Organizational culture", "Psychological climate in the organization", "Man in the organization", "Management and leadership in the organization ”, “Problems of modern organization”. The study of the materials of the anthology will not only expand knowledge on the subject, but also "get in touch" with a variety of theoretical and empirical studies, as well as real practices of organizational psychology.

The life cycle of an organization…………………………..…38 Prigogine A.I.<...>pp.85-89 LIFE CYCLE OF ORGANIZATION Do you remember the organismic model of organization?<...>There have been many attempts to establish the life cycle of organizations, the most recognized scheme is Ishak Edizes<...>roam almost all over Copyright OJSC Central Design Bureau BIBCOM & LLC Agency Kniga-Service 41 life cycles<...>So, the life cycle of a business organization consists of three phases. I. Growth. II. Maturity. III. Aging.

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M.: PROMEDIA

The results of a study of the evolution of the statistical characteristics of a series of Wolf numbers and a number of sunspot groups on the scale of their variability of about 100 years are presented. A semi-empirical model of the probabilistic distribution of Wolf numbers is constructed. The method of moments is presented as applied to the problem of calculating the evolution of the parameters of the distribution of Wolf numbers.

pronounced quasi-periodic components of solar activity variability is the 11-year cycle<...>, then there are many works related to solving the problem of predicting the next solar quasi- eleven year old <...>cycle based on information about the previous ones.<...>But in the variability of the characteristics of the 11-year cycle itself are found as shorter periodicities<...>This formally explains from a statistical point of view the observed at the beginning of the current cycle of the solar

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No. 12 [Automation, telemechanization and communications in the oil industry, 2015]

Development and maintenance of measuring instruments, automation, telemechanization and communications, process control systems, information and information systems, CAD and metrological, mathematical, software

The number of CR cycles, i.e., the number of periods Tk, before writing off the MN is (nk + 1); the number of CP cycles that are<...>within one CR cycle, equals (nc + 1); the number of TR cycles within one SR cycle is (nt + 1). 2.<...>Cycles SR and TP are respectively equal to    c c t c t c t, . 1 1 1 +1 k kT Т ТТ T n n n n      <...>Principles for ensuring and implementing the "life cycle" process for systems of emergency protection of objects<...>Methodology for determining the stage of the life cycle of equipment in technologically hazardous processes based on

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FLUCTUATIONS OF BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH REPRODUCTION IN GIZHIGINSKO-KAMCHATKA HERRING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ABSTRACT DIS. ... CANDIDATE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

M.: MAGADAN SRI OF FISHING AND OCEANOGRAPHY

The purpose of the study is to identify patterns of fertility fluctuations, biological indicators and sex ratio in the spawning part of the Gizhiginsko-Kamchatka herring herd under the influence of solar activity.

To reveal the dynamics of fecundity of the Gizhiga-Kamchatka herring depending on the cycles of solar activity<...>Somewhat different patterns are observed when 11-year cycles of solar activity affect<...>A similar phenomenon is explained by the presence of two cycles of body weight lifting with one antiphase cycle of<...>cycle, it is possible in different ways.<...>Usually two vibrations fit into eleven year old solar activity cycle.

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Climate system (astronomical factors)

VSU Publishing House

The teaching aid was prepared at the Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography, Geoecology and Tourism, Voronezh State University.

Against this background, separate cycles develop.<...>Eleven year olds cycles differ not only in different lengths, but also in intensity.<...>The intensity of a cycle is related to its duration.<...>those. a 22-year cycle is formed.<...>Against the background of an 11-year cycle, an 80–90-year cycle of sunspot activity is clearly distinguished, which

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The article deals with the issues of enhancing the activity of students in the process of advanced training of teaching staff using multimedia technology

.". and the Concept of twelve-year education in a comprehensive school, transitional programs for eleven year old <...>In preparing the transitional history curriculum for eleven year old training is given great attention<...>At the beginning of the study of a certain topic in cycles, several problematic tasks are set before the students.

30

Ivan Sergeevich Turgenev was born in the city of Orel. His father, Sergei Nikolaevich, served at that time in the army and retired as a colonel. Mother - Varvara Petrovna - nee Lutovinova.

It can be assumed that initially Turgenev intended to include the fairy tale in the cycle he conceived in 1882.<...>Having conceived the cycle "Stories and Tales for Children", the writer intended to open it with an introduction that began<...>An example of this is the entry of Ivan Sergeevich in the album eleven year old boy, the son of a cartoonist<...>Some of them are autobiographical, although the main character, eleven year old Lilya Zhizhmorskaya, performing

31

The article is devoted to the primary sources of human knowledge about the earth.

It can be assumed that a purely accidental or fatal coincidence of two numbers - the lunar monthly cycle (27.3<...>natural observation at all times of human existence, then the establishment of the monthly lunar cycle<...>minimum (in the full moon) and maximum dimming (before the new moon), during the same lunar cycle<...>equal to 129.6 minutes, would give, when dividing 1440 by 129.6, the number of years equal to 11.111 ... i.e. solar " eleven year old <...>cycle".

32

No. 1 [Higher education in Russia, 1997]

The journal publishes the results of research on the current state of higher education in Russia, discusses the theory and practice of humanitarian, natural science and engineering higher education. The journal is included in the list of peer-reviewed publications recommended by the Higher Attestation Commission for publishing the results of scientific research in the following areas: philosophy, sociology and cultural studies; pedagogy and psychology; story.

Falling into the human environment as a result of a number of accidents at nuclear fuel cycle enterprises<...>Questions of ecological culture are reflected in the curricula of the cycle of humanities.<...>At one pole there is always an individual who is able to carry out a full technological cycle alone<...>quantity will be required in the short and long term (given that "the production cycle<...>Other functionaries still like their sovereignty with a closed educational and methodological cycle.

Preview: Higher Education in Russia No. 1 1997.pdf (0.2 Mb)

33

The data of a logical study of the state of health of Moscow schoolchildren observed from the 1st to the 11th grade are presented. Students annually underwent a clinical examination in a school setting. A high prevalence of chronic diseases and functional abnormalities among schoolchildren was revealed. Unfavorable trends in the health status of adolescents reduce the labor, reproductive and defense potential of the country. It is necessary to carry out preventive work and hygiene education in educational institutions, the formation of a healthy lifestyle, and an increase in the motor activity of adolescents.

research was to study the dynamics of morbidity rates in children and adolescents throughout eleven year old <...>The prevalence of functional abnormalities for eleven year old the period of study has increased more<...>It is necessary to pay attention to a new phenomenon - the increase in the prevalence of menstrual irregularities<...>An increase in the frequency of menstrual irregularities can affect the deterioration of reproductive health

34

Irina Knorring's diary as a woman's confession

The subject of analysis in the article is the diary of the Russian emigrant poetess Irina Knorring, which she kept from 1917 to 1943. The diary is considered as an intertext in gender analysis procedures; the author of the article proves that Knorring kept two diaries at the same time, intertwining poetic texts with prose, on the one hand, and strangers with her own, on the other. Understood in this way, Knorring's diary appears as a verbal confessional space in which the poet constructs her gender and literary identity.

In a pre-diary entry that can be seen as a kind of profession de foi eleven year old <...>each other: each of the heroes of her novels (often imaginary) is dedicated to poems or poetic cycles<...>one can consider her habit to consider poetic cycles devoted to this or that “subject”<...>people, I will write novels and poems, I will be infinitely happy, ”wrote with childish categorical eleven year old

35

C++ language and object-oriented programming in C++. Laboratory workshop studies. allowance for universities

M.: Hotline - Telecom

The manual contains 21 laboratory work that will allow the reader to master the C ++ programming language in its classical form, as well as to master the technology of object-oriented programming in C ++. Each laboratory work includes theoretical information, accompanied by a large number of examples working in the MS Visual Studio environment. For self-study, most of the laboratory works offer sets of tasks of two levels of complexity - for beginners to learn a programming language and for those who want to improve their level in this area.

cycle ; check for continuation of the cycle ; the law of change of control variables of the cycle ) operator; Operator<...>the same loop, but is not a way to exit the loop.<...>loop body, i.e. it is a loop followed by a condition.<...>How can a while loop mimic a for loop? 2.<...>How can a while loop mimic a for loop? 2.

Preview: The C++ language and object-oriented programming in C++. Laboratory practice. Textbook for universities (1).pdf (0.6 Mb)

36

The cosmic ray (CR) modulation observed on neutron monitors during the minimum, growth, maximum, and onset of the decline in solar activity (SA) of the 24th cycle (2008–2015) is compared with the CR modulation in the analogous periods of the SA of cycles 20–23 . After a prolonged SA minimum between cycles 23 and 24 in 2007–2009. and the CR maximum at the end of 2009, in which the CR intensity exceeded the previous four CR maxima, a weaker CR modulation is observed in the SA growth phase than the modulation in the corresponding periods of the previous cycles. During the period of SA growth in 2011–2014. against the background of a decrease in the eleven-year variation, shorter-period CR variations (oscillations with a variable period, bursts of activity) are better manifested. In the current 24th SA cycle, a scenario with two SA maxima was realized, and in CR we see one minimum at the end of 2014, which is ≈12% away from the 2009 maximum for particles with a rigidity of 10 GV. The CR modulation in the last cycle is the weakest for the entire time of operation of neutron monitors. Since the beginning of 2015, the restoration of CL began. Possible reasons for the unusually weak CR modulation are considered. Quantitative estimates are made of the contribution to the created CR modulation of various characteristics of the solar magnetic field in the period under study of the 24th cycle and in the corresponding periods of 20–23 solar cycles, and their comparison is carried out.

During the period of SA growth in 2011–2014. against the backdrop of a decrease eleven years old variations show up better<...>20–23) cycles.<...>Analysis of the time course of these indices reveals low values ​​of Bss in the 24th cycle, even at the maximum of the cycle<...>22 cycle 20 cycle 75 96 76 97 77 98 78 99 79 00 80 01 81 02 82 03 21 cycle 23 cycle 20 24 21 23 22 a1 0,<...>Comparing similar periods in each cycle, we also compared the 24th cycle with the behavior of CR in 1957–1996

37

Fire is still one of the most terrible disasters in society. Fire is inexorable, it is impossible to negotiate with it, it is impossible to hide from it. He mercilessly takes the most precious thing - our lives and the lives of people close to us. Every day, a large number of fires occur on the territory of the Russian Federation, in which people die, real estate objects are destroyed.

The plant will be equipped with modern automated lines, including a full cycle of works: from<...>Behind eleven years old history of the company, its specialists have accumulated vast experience in the field of

38

The article provides a literary analysis of the work of the poetess Marina Tsvetaeva.

Between poems eleven year old distance: written about love in 1923, about creativity in 1934<...>It is part of a cycle addressed (without dedication) to Pasternak.<...>Before this, the poetess wrote cycles of poems for Akhmatova, Blok, and others.

39

This paper presents the results of a study of archival materials of 25,169 inpatients with alcohol dependence (F 10.2–F 10.4) of the Poltava Regional Clinical Psychiatric Hospital named after O.F. Maltsev for one 11-year solar cycle from 1997 to 2007. The presented data on the frequency of occurrence of alcoholic binges over a long time in one region showed that this is a complex psychobiological process. The number of hospitalized young people (under 20 years old) with drunken forms of alcohol dependence and with episodic hard drinking more than doubled during the study period. These data indicate the presence of a connection in patients with binge forms of alcohol dependence, as well as episodic binge drinking with circannual rhythms, which determine the clinical manifestations of these conditions and the fluctuation of admissions of patients to inpatient treatment in one or another period of the year. The onset of the disease correlates with the peaks of solar activity and seasonality (more often spring - autumn). The most pronounced peaks in the admission of patients with alcoholic binges in March - May, a less pronounced rise in October - December, which makes it expedient to carry out therapeutic and preventive measures in this contingent of patients in February - March and September - October

Maltsev for one 11-year solar cycle from 1997 to 2007.<...>Maltsev for the period from 1997 to 2007, i.e. in one 11-year solar cycle.<...>(27.16%) women.  CONCLUSIONS The presented data on the frequency of occurrence of alcoholic binges in one eleven year old <...>the solar cycle in one region showed that this is a complex psychobiological process.<...>visual measurements of the magnetic fields of large sunspots made at different observatories in cycle 23

40

No. 1 [Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Series "Mathematics. Mechanics. Physics", 2017]

Original articles, reviews and brief reports by SUSU scientists, universities and research organizations of Russia, devoted to topical issues of mathematics, mechanics and physics, are published.

It is required to find an admissible cycle of minimum length.<...>Eleven year old the variation has a characteristic form of a half-wave with a maximum 1 year earlier than the minimum of the solar<...>Eleven year old variation in the number of registered atmospherics, in our opinion, can be explained<...>In the same time eleven year old the variation in the number of thunderstorms correlates in phase with the cosmic ray flux<...>On the change in thunderstorm activity in the solar cycle / Z.P.

Preview: Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Series Mathematics. Mechanics. Physics №1 2017.pdf (0.4 Mb)

41

The law of universal repulsion of O. G. Smirnov as a cause of non-Newtonian gravitational effects by M. K. Majorana, D. R. Long, A. Danzhon, S. M. Kolesnikov, A. Sakuma [Electronic resource] / Ushakov // Actual problems of modern science .- 2010 .- №4 .- S. 149-165 .- Access mode: https://site/efd/253456

Recent achievements of scientific and technological progress in the oil and gas industry; online catalog of domestic equipment and materials.

The full test cycle is planned to be carried out in three stages.<...>As follows from Fig. 12, one-sided wear of the cylinder coating after 148 days of working (number of cycles 0.234<...>The constantly expanding cycle of these operations is the main criterion for social reproduction.<...>the degree of tightness of the functional relationships of the control object with the subjects - participants in the "life cycle<...>Plekhanov special "Oil cycle" (department), where oil students were trained.

Preview: Equipment and technologies for the oil and gas complex No. 3 2013.pdf (0.4 Mb)

43

The article is devoted to the outstanding choirmaster, teacher and musical figure, the founder of the Academy of Choral Art (ACHI) and the Great Children's Choir of the All-Union Radio and Central Television V.S. Popov. It reflects the essential aspects of his artistic world, performing style, the concept of vocal and choral education. It tells about the concert life of the choirs led by him. The question of the specifics of vocal and choral education as a carrier of ancient sacred traditions is touched upon.

Having achieved in the late 1970s. transition of the Choir School to eleven year old training, Popov made it possible<...>Constantly performs at Orthodox music festivals, at the Moscow Autumn festival, in concert cycles<...>This became possible thanks to the far-sighted decision of Popov to make training at the School eleven years old

44

In the modern period (2013), the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus Pallas, 1814) is one of the main commercial objects of the Sea of ​​Azov, the regime of which is favorable for reproduction and development, and the habitat covers the entire water area of ​​the sea. Biomass of round timber in 1952÷2012 varied from 5.0 to 201.6 (average 32.0) thousand tons. The population of the round goby is very variable. As in fish with a short life cycle, it experiences significant changes in abundance: over a short period (2–5 years), the yield of a generation can differ by tens and even hundreds of times. Taking into account the ecological and commercial importance of the round timber as the most widespread species among the Azov gobies, monitoring the state of its population and stock is relevant.

As a fish with a short life cycle, it experiences significant changes in abundance: within a short<...>Like fish with a short life cycle (most of them do not live up to 4 years of age), she experiences<...>increase in the number of gobies for the next year, which is typical of fish populations with a short life cycle<...>Eleven year olds data for the 2000s. about the size of new generations of round timber indicate that the yield<...>Table 3 The number of generations of the Azov round timber during the life cycle (according to the autumn accounting

45

The past Year of Literature prompted a new round of reflections on children's and teenage reading: many Russian libraries this year held large-scale and local literary competitions, competitions, reading marathons, which provided rich material for reflection. Such a competition was also held in the Centralized System of Children's Libraries in Chelyabinsk. More than 300 young readers aged eight to sixteen took part in the competition. The figure may be modest, but the sample made it possible to identify and feel certain trends in children's and teenage reading at this stage.

BUT eleven years old Karina N. was struck by the story of V.<...>eleven year old Ilya Ch., talking about the hero of the dilogy V.<...>Eleven year old Anastasia B., whose heroine was Kalosha from T.<...>Eleven year old Ksenia Zh., reading Bogomolov’s “Ivan”, thought about what they should have experienced<...>Eleven year old Alena Ch. established herself in the idea that “war does not have a childish face.

46

Lyudmila Evgenievna Ulitskaya was born in Bashkiria, where her family was evacuated. After the war, the Ulitskys returned to Moscow, where Lyudmila graduated from high school, and then from the Faculty of Biology of Moscow State University. She worked for two years at the Institute of General Genetics of the USSR Academy of Sciences, but in 1970 she was fired for reprinting samizdat. For some time she worked as a director of the Jewish Chamber Musical Theater, wrote essays, children's plays, dramatizations for radio, children's and musical theaters, reviewed plays and translated poems from the Mongolian language.

About eleven years old its periodicity is associated both with the motion of Jupiter and with the periodicity of the intensity<...>In hypotheses about the influence of the solar cycle on the earth's weather or the well-being of people and conflicting data<...>For the minimum phase of the solar cycle, this dependence is quite simple: a stable high-speed wind

48

This summer, the Drofa publishing house published a set of video films on DVDs "Happily Ever After: All About a Man, a Woman and a Family." This is a series of popular science conversations involving family psychologist Olga Troitskaya and TV presenter Alexander Gordon. a very delicate topic was a very non-standard step for the well-known and experienced publishing house of educational literature... About why "Drofa" decided to participate in the project, says the general director of the publishing house, doctor of historical sciences Alexander Fedotovich Kiselev.

Cycle 2.1.<...> <...>Description of the innovation cycle 2.1.<...>Engineering covers all stages of the innovation cycle.<...>Description of the innovation cycle 2.1.

Preview: Innovation Management.pdf (0.8 Mb)

Europe predicted a major war

Experts are seriously thinking about the consequences of a possible collapse of the European Union. According to the former head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, the clashes of interests of major powers in the EU are reminiscent of the situation in the Old World a year before the start of the First World War.
Juncker is sure that the threat of a new war in Europe should not be discounted. “For my generation, a single currency has always meant the politics of peace. Today I see that too many in Europe are again lost in narrow national ideas,” he said.
The ex-head of the Eurogroup, in particular, sees signs of discord in the election campaigns in Greece and Italy. Juncker admitted he was "shocked" by posters in Athens depicting Chancellor Merkel in Nazi uniform. The latest Italian election campaign, he said, was also excessively hostile to Germany and therefore "anti-European", writes the Vzglyad newspaper. Juncker directly compared the existing situation to 1913, when, despite the growing contradictions, most Europeans firmly believed that peace in Europe was forever: “There are amazing parallels with 1913 in terms of carelessness. Many in Europe even then thought that war could never break out again. The major powers on the continent were so closely intertwined economically that they simply could not afford the luxury of military conflict. The countries of Northern and Western Europe were especially sure of this.”

In order to avoid these gloomy prospects now, Juncker, who is now Luxembourg's prime minister, says governments must relentlessly pursue austerity and complete the cycle of unpopular reforms designed to force Europe to live within its means again and, on this basis, begin to rebuild its economy. “We cannot fight the budget deficit and increase government spending. We cannot fight excessive public debt by borrowing new funds. If we continue to do this, Europe will face a social revolution,” Juncker said.
http://3mv.ru/publ/evrope_predrekajut_krupnuju_vojnu/1-1-0-14958

IS AN INTERESTING STATEMENT TRUE?
AND THIS STATEMENT HAS A SUBSTANTIATION
LOOK AT THE GROUPS PRESENTED BELOW AND YOU WILL NOTICE A CYCLE IN THE EVENTS OCCURRED OVER SEVERAL CENTURIES:

1635-1659 - Franco-Spanish War.
1640-1668 - Portugal's War of Independence.
1642-1646 — Civil War in England.
1648 - Civil War in England.

1683-1684 - Franco-Spanish War.
1700-1721 – Northern war of Russia against Sweden
1701-1714 - War of the Spanish Succession between France, Austria and England. 1718-1720 — Anglo-Spanish war.

1739-1748 — Anglo-Spanish war.
1740-1748 - War of the Austrian Succession.
1741-1743 - The Russian-Swedish war, which ended with the Peace of Abov, according to which part of Finland retreated to Russia.
1744-1745 - The Second Silesian War of Austria and Prussia on the territory of Poland.
1756-1763 - The Seven Years' War.

1788-1789 - Russo-Swedish war.
1789-1794 - The French Revolution.
1796-1797 The Italian campaign of Napoleon Bonaparte.
1798-1801 – The war of France with the II coalition (England, Turkey, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies, Russia, Austria, Portugal)
1799 - Capture of Corfu, Naples and Rome by F. F. Ushakov. Swiss and Italian campaigns of A. V. Suvorov
1799 - Coup of the 18th Brumaire by General Napoleon Bonaparte. Transfer of power in France to the first consul Bonaparte 1800 - The defeat of the Austrian troops by Napoleon Bonaparte at Marengo. 1803-1805 - The war of France with the III coalition (England, Austria, Russia) 1805 - The victory of the English fleet over the Franco-Spanish at Trafalgar. The death of Vice Admiral G. Nelson.
1806-1807 - War of France with the IV coalition (England, Prussia, Russia) 1809 - War of France with the V coalition. Schönbrunn world. Austrian loss of Illyria, parts of Tyrol and Western Galicia. Rebellion against French rule in Germany.
1812 - Napoleon's campaign in Russia. Patriotic war in Russia.
1812-1814 - The war of France with the VI coalition (England, Russia, Prussia, Austria) 1815 - Napoleon's "Hundred Days".
1815 - War of France with the VII coalition. Battle of Waterloo.

1853-1856 – Crimean War: Turkey, England, France, Sardinia against Russia.
1858 - Liquidation of the East India campaign, declaration of India as the possession of the crown.
1859 - Austro-Franco-Sardinian war.
1864 - War of Austria and Prussia against Denmark for Schleswig, Holstein and Lauenburg. 1866 - Austro-Prussian ("Thirty Days") War for hegemony in Germany. Prussian victory.
1867 - The invasion of D. Garibaldi at the head of the "red shirts" in the Papal States. 1867-1868 - The war of England against Ethiopia.
1870-1871 - Franco-Prussian War. Fall of the Second Empire.
1877-1878 - Russian-Turkish war.

1881 French conquest of Tunisia. The beginning of the colonial advance of France in Africa.
1882 - Occupation of Egypt by England.
1898 Anglo-French colonial conflict in Africa.
1899-1902 — Anglo-Boer War.
1911-1912 - Italo-Turkish war. Capture of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica by Italy.
1912-1913 - The Balkan Crisis.
1912-1913 - War of Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece against Turkey. Potrya Turkey Macedonia, Thrace, Albania and Elephant.
1913 - War of Serbia, Greece, Romania and Turkey against Bulgaria.
1914-1918 - World War I. The death of 9.5 million people.
1917 - February bourgeois-democratic revolution in Russia. The overthrow of the monarchy. Transfer of power to the Provisional Government.
1917 - US entry into the war on the side of the Entente countries.
1917 - October Revolution in Russia. 1928 - Signing by 15 states (France, USA, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, etc.) in Paris of the Kellogg-Briand pact on the rejection of war as an instrument of national policy.

1939 - Signing of the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact ("Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact"). USSR annexation of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus.
1939-1940 - Soviet-Finnish war.
1940 - The invasion of German troops in Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Luxembourg and France. Capitulation of Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Norway and France. 1945 - Surrender of Japan. End of World War II

1991 - The collapse of the USSR and the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which included 11 of the 15 republics of the former Soviet Union.
1999 Bombing of Serbia by NATO countries. Entering the UN peacekeeping forces in Kosovo. Break Yugoslavia diplomatic relations with NATO countries
2001 America started fighting in Afghanistan.
2003 Start of the US war in Iraq

CYCLES
So: in the history of Europe, we can observe a cycle of ~ 50 years - about this gap armed conflicts began and this coincides with 54 - summer cycles of Kondratyev and 60 - summer Vedic cycles in which 11 -year -old solar cycles are also laid. THERE ALSO ARE LONGER CYCLES OF 2300 AND 5125 YEARS EXISTING IN THE MAYAN CALENDARS - AND EVEN MORE LONGER EXISTING IN ANCIENT INDIA. Cycles are of great importance and are influenced by many events in people's lives - they influence almost any events taking place on Earth and society - birth and death, the yield of the selechors, migration of peoples and, as the trace of all this - the beginning of revolutions and wars ... and ALL OF THIS TOGETHER INFLUENCES THE ACTIVITY OF THE STOCK MARKET.

SOLAR CYCLE
solar cycle- periodic changes in solar activity. The best known and best studied is the solar cycle with a duration of about 11 years ("the Schwabe cycle"). Sometimes, in a narrow sense, under solar cycle understand precisely the 11-year cycle of solar activity.
There is also a doubled Schwabe cycle of about 22 years (the so-called "Hale cycle"), meaning that the state of the global magnetic field of the Sun returns to its original state after two complete 11-year cycles.
In the behavior of solar activity, there are also much less pronounced cycles of longer duration: for example, the "Gleisberg cycle" with a period of about one century, as well as super-long cycles several thousand years long.
11 year cycle
Main article: Eleven year cycle of solar activity
The 11-year cycle ("Schwabe cycle" or "Schwabe-Wolf cycle") is the most prominent cycle of solar activity. Accordingly, the statement about the presence of an 11-year cyclicity in solar activity is sometimes called the "Schwabe-Wolf law".
The approximately ten-year periodicity in the increase and decrease in the number of sunspots on the Sun was first noticed in the first half of the 19th century by the German astronomer G. Schwabe, and then by R. Wolf. The “eleven-year” cycle is conditionally called: its length during the 18th-20th centuries varied from 7 to 17 years, and in the 20th century, on average, it was closer to 10.5 years.
This cycle is characterized by a rather rapid (average of about 4 years) increase in the number of sunspots, as well as other manifestations of solar activity, and a subsequent slower (about 7 years) decrease. During the cycle, other periodic changes are also observed, for example, the gradual shift of the sunspot formation zone to the equator ("Spörer's law").
The theory of the solar dynamo is usually used to explain this periodicity in the occurrence of sunspots.
Although various indices can be used to determine the level of solar activity, the most commonly used for this is the annual average Wolf number. The 11-year cycles determined using this index are conventionally numbered starting from 1755. In 2008, the 24th cycle of solar activity began.

Number Minimum Maximum

1 1755 1761
2 1766 1769
3 1775 1778
4 1784 1787
5 1798 1804
6 1810 1816
7 1823 1830
8 1833 1837
9 1843 1848
10 1856 1860
11 1867 1870
12 1878 1883

13 1889 1893
14 1901 1905
15 1913 1917
16 1923 1928
17 1933 1937
18 1944 1947
19 1954 1957
20 1964 1968
21 1976 1979
22 1986 1989
23 1996 2000
24 2008

Other Observable Cycles
22 year cycle
The 22-year cycle (the "Hale cycle") is essentially a doubled Schwabe cycle. It was discovered after the relationship between sunspots and the Sun's magnetic fields was understood at the beginning of the 20th century. It turned out that during one cycle of spot activity, the total magnetic field of the Sun changes sign: if in the minimum of one Schwabe cycle the background magnetic fields are predominantly positive near one of the Sun’s poles and negative near the other, then after about 11 years the picture changes to the opposite. Every 11 years, the characteristic arrangement of magnetic polarities in sunspot groups also changes. Thus, in order for the total magnetic field of the Sun to return to its original state, two Schwabe cycles must pass, that is, about 22 years.
secular cycles

Secular cycles of solar activity from radiocarbon data.

The secular cycle of solar activity (“Gleisberg cycle”) has a length of about 70-100 years and manifests itself in modulations of the 11-year cycle. The last maximum of the secular cycle was observed in the middle of the 20th century (near the 19th 11-year cycle), the next one should fall approximately in the middle of the 21st century.
There is also a two-century cycle ("Süss cycle" or "de Vries cycle"), as the minimum of which one can consider a steady decrease in solar activity occurring approximately once every 200 years, lasting for many decades (the so-called global minima of solar activity) - the Maunder minimum ( 1645-1715), Spörer's minimum (1450-1540), Wolf's minimum (1280-1340) and others.
Millennium cycles

Solar Hallstatt cycle with a period of 2,300 years according to radiocarbon analysis.

Samvatsara (Samvatsar) - 60-year cycle in the Vedic calendar of time calculation
Vedic astronomy (Siddhanta) and Vedic astrology (Jyotish) use the following grahi- "objects" (and in fact, the Forces of Nature): 1) "Surya"- The sun, 2) "Chandra"- Moon, five planets - 3) "Mangala"- Mars, 4) "Buddha"- Mercury, 5) "Guru"- Jupiter, 6) "Shukra"- Venus, 7) "Shani"- Saturn - and two mathematical points: 8) Rahu[ascending ("north") lunar node] and 9) Ketu[descending ("southern") lunar node].
Out of five grah("planets") Guru [Jupiter] and Shani [Saturn] are the slowest, that is, their periods of rotation around the Sun (and, accordingly, the Earth) are the longest. The cycle of Guru [Jupiter] lasts 12 years, and the cycle of Shani [Saturn] lasts 30 years. In addition, these two grahas have a special, long-term influence on the entire Earth and on a person in particular.

The “least common multiple” for 12 and 30 is 60. That is, the interconnected motion of Jupiter and Saturn forms a 60-year cycle, at the beginning of which both planets connect (0 degrees of angular distance between them), then the angular distance between them grows to a maximum (between them 180 degrees), then decreases again to their connection, which occurs every 60 years.
60 years is one Samvatsaru. Each year in Samvatsara has its own name. So a person born, for example, in the "Vaibhava" Samvatsara, at the age of 60 will enter the next, second Vaibhava-Samvatsara.
The cycles that exist in nature make it possible to accurately predict many events: bird migrations, tides, the movement of planets, etc. With the help of cyclical analysis, it is also possible to predict changes in financial markets, although not always as accurately as a natural phenomenon.
Seasonal cycles are found in the behavior of prices for a number of goods. As a consequence of the agricultural nature of most commodities, these cycles are understandable and understandable. However, it is much more difficult to explain the cyclical behavior of some other financial instruments. The cyclical theories of financial markets address a variety of reasons for this behavior, ranging from weather and sunspots to planetary positions and basic human psychology. It seems to me that the main reason is in psychology.
It is known that the price reflects the coincidence of the expectations of market participants. These expectations are constantly changing, causing the supply and demand lines to shift and causing prices to fluctuate between overbought and oversold™ levels. Thus, price fluctuations- this is a natural process of changing expectations, the natural consequence of which is cyclicity.
Attempts to use the cyclical nature of prices to increase the efficiency of trading have led to the creation of many technical indicators and tools. Among them are overbought/oversold indicators (eg, the stochastic oscillator and the relative strength index), which are designed to identify extreme cycle boundaries.

The following figure shows the main components of a cycle.

INTERPRETATION
An entire book could be devoted to the topic of cycles and their analysis. Therefore, here I will only briefly characterize some of the most famous cycles. To learn more about cycles and technical analysis in general, I recommend referring to J. Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets".
Agree that hindsight in everything you can find a cycle. And for successful trading based on cyclical analysis, it is necessary to rely only on cycles that are sustainable and use them in combination with other trading tools.
28 day cycle. As a result of research conducted in the 1930s, a 28-day cycle was discovered in the wheat market. Some attribute this to the influence of the lunar cycle. One way or another, but many markets, including the stock market, do have a 28-day cycle (ie 28 calendar days, or approximately 20 trading days).
10.5-month futures cycle. Although the cyclicality of each commodity market is strictly individual, in the dynamics of the CRB index (commodity market research index) a cycle lasting 9-12 months was found.
January effect. The stock market showed a mystical pattern of ending the year at a higher level if prices rose in January, and at a lower level if they fell in January. As the saying goes, "what January is like the whole year." Between 1950 and 1993, the January effect was confirmed 38 times out of 44 - with 86% accuracy.
4-year cycle (Kitchin wave). In 1923, Joseph Kitchin discovered that many of the financial indicators of Great Britain and the United States followed a 40-month cycle between 1890 and 1922. Later, the strong influence of this 4-year cycle was also seen in the stock market between 1868 and 1945.
Although the cycle is called "four years", its length varies between 40-53 months.
presidential cycle. This cycle is associated with the US presidential elections that take place every four years. It is explained as follows: after the election, the stock market begins to fall as a result of the unpopular measures taken by the newly elected president to regulate the economy. Then, in the middle of the presidential term, the market begins to rise in the hope that the economy will strengthen by the time of the next election.
9.2 year cycle (Jaglar wave). In 1860, Clemant Juglar discovered that many sectors of the economy have a cycle of approximately 9 years. Subsequent studies have proven the marked impact of this cycle between 1840 and 1940.
54-year cycle (Kondratiev wave). Named after a Russian economist, this long-term, 54-year cycle manifests itself in the dynamics of prices and economic indicators. Since the cycle is very long, its effect on the stock market was noted only three times.
The rising wave of the cycle is characterized by rising prices, economic development and a moderate rise in the stock market. The flat section of the cycle curve (plateau) is stable prices, the peak of economic activity and the rapid growth of the stock market. A downward wave is characterized by falling prices, a sharp decline in all markets, and often a major military conflict.
The following chart (taken from The Media General Financial Weekly, June 3, 1974) shows the Kondratieff wave and US wholesale prices.