Recently, my husband and I discussed the topic of how our Earth will change in many, many years, or even earlier. Especially considering the rapid human activity. The husband mentioned that there is such a thing as a "geographic forecast", and he provides answers to many such questions.

The essence of geographic forecasting

In general, a forecast is a judgment with a degree of probability about what state an object or phenomenon will have in the future, which is based on special scientific methods. Judging by the subject, it can be natural science and social science. The geographical forecast is at the intersection of these concepts, that is, it implies that we can change some moments in the behavior of the environment, and we will have to come to terms with and adapt to some.
There are different types of geographic forecasts. Judging by the coverage of territories, it is global (for the entire Earth), regional (for large regions or countries, for example, the Baltic states or Belarus) and local (for small and mostly homogeneous territories).
One of the first global forecasts was the assumption of a change in the planet's climate due to the economic activities of people back in the 70s. The general change in air temperature, the melting of glaciers, the restructuring of the circulation of the atmosphere, in general, everything that we are seeing now, was announced.
I now live in the forest-steppe zone of Ukraine. However, according to the forecasts of our great minds of science, with such climate change, in ten years we will have a full-fledged steppe. And an indicator of this is the appearance in our area of ​​species of animals and insects that are characteristic of the steppe.

What methods are used for geographic forecasting?

There are quite a few methods, they often overlap with other sciences. Here is some of them:

• deductive;
• inductive;
• intersystem analysis;
• expert assessments;
• goal tree.

And this is not even taking into account that geographic forecasting includes forecasts of settlement systems, social, development of the service sector, and many others. This type of research is still in its infancy.

Forecasting has now become very important in almost all branches of science and economy, and therefore it is quite natural that geographers have also become interested in forecasting. In the last quarter of the 20th century, works on geographic forecasting were constantly published in geographical publications. However, the problem of forecasting is extremely complex, and it is still premature to talk about the established method of geographic forecasting. Rather, we can talk about scientific search in solving this complex and multifaceted problem.

A special branch is being formed in the system of sciences - prognostication, or the science of forecasting, which generalizes the forecasting experience accumulated in various sciences, develops general theoretical issues and forecasting methods.

Currently, up to a hundred different methods are used in forecasting, which are combined into several groups. However, the selection of methods, the verification of their applicability is carried out depending on the goals and object of forecasting, therefore, forecasting is an integral part of the science in whose competence the object of forecasting is located. In fact, forecasting itself serves as a method of scientific research, the peculiarities of its application in different sciences are determined by the specifics of the sciences themselves.

According to Academician B. M. Kedrov (1971), forecasting is a characteristic feature of a certain stage in the development of science, which he called predictive, and it is preceded by two more stages - empirical and theoretical. Naturally, different sciences do not reach the predictive stage of their development at the same time.

To predict any phenomenon, it is necessary to know its essence and the main patterns of its development, as well as the nature of the relationship of the predicted phenomenon with others and the conditions under which it manifests itself (Yu. G. Saushkin, 1972). Consequently, ! only at a sufficiently high level of development of the theory of science, its cognitive possibilities are expanded to the study of phenomena that have not yet been realized, but may well occur.

Forecasting is one of the most urgent and complex modern scientific problems. Its development is ensured by the level of development of science, and its formulation is directly and directly related to the demands of practice. The expansion and complication of the interaction of human society with the environment put on the agenda the need to develop a geographical forecast.

The principles of geographic forecasting follow from theoretical ideas about the functioning, dynamics and development of the NTC, including the patterns of their anthropogenic trans- \ formations. The geographic forecast is based on changes in the state of those factors on which future events may depend.

PTC changes. Among these factors are natural (neotectonic movements, changes in solar activity, self-development of the NTC, etc.) and anthropogenic (economic development of the territory, hydraulic engineering, land reclamation, etc.).

At present, the anthropogenic impact on nature is comparable in strength to the most powerful natural factors and can lead to irreversible changes in nature. To predict the direction and speed of changes in the relationship between nature, population and economy in their temporal and territorial aspect is the task of geographical forecasting.

The geographic forecast is closely linked by bilateral links with the socio-economic forecast. From the socio-economic geographic forecast draws needs forecast, and gives him opportunity forecast. First of all, it concerns the resource forecast. However, in relation to the location of economic sectors, in determining the acceptable production technology, a geographical forecast that reveals possible changes in the natural environment serves as a kind of territorial limiter for a socio-economic forecast.

The complexity of a geographic forecast lies in the fact that it covers not only temporal, but also territorial changes in the relationship between three very complex systems: nature, population and economy. Yu. G. Saushkin (1976) notes that the main thing in geographical forecasting is "in the scientific foresight of the types and forms of transformation in time of spatial heterogeneity and spatial combination and interaction of various objects (phenomena, processes) on the earth's surface."

The geographical forecast is subdivided into physical-geographical, demogeographical and economic-geographical. A physical-geographical forecast is a forecast of changes in the natural environment, “this is the scientific development of ideas about the natural geographic systems of the future, about their fundamental properties and various variable states, including those caused by unintended and unforeseen results of human activity” (V. B. Sochava, 1974). Depending on the completeness of coverage of the components of the geographic envelope, the physical-geographical forecast can be particular or complex.

Private physical-geographical forecasts characterize spatio-temporal changes of any one component or phenomenon, or a group of closely interrelated phenomena. Particular forecasts include a forecast of climate change or runoff, a forecast of the development of erosion processes or soil salinization due to irrigation, a forecast of changes in vegetation cover or the ratio of heat and moisture, etc. In climatology and hydrology, predictive studies have been carried out for a long time, so already

Considerable experience has been accumulated and a technique has been worked out, although it is not always sufficiently reliable.

A task integrated(integral, according to V. B. Sochava) physical and geographical forecasting - identifying trends in changes in the geographic envelope of the Earth and individual PTCs of different ranks under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic factors.

The forecast for the development of the NTC as integral systems is the most difficult forecast, since it must simultaneously cover the entire complex of natural relationships, taking into account the anthropogenic impact on them.

Any complex physical-geographical forecast is a multifactorial and multicomponent, and hence a probabilistic forecast, because a change in one of the factors entails a change in relationships, which inevitably affects the nature, direction and rate of change of the entire NTC as a whole. Thus, future changes in the NTC depend on a combination of many conditions and factors, so a comprehensive physical and geographical forecast should be multivariate.

The multidimensionality of the forecast of changes in the PTC is a very significant difficulty that must be overcome in the process of forecasting. TV Zvonkova (1972) points out several ways to overcome the barrier of multidimensionality: breaking the whole into parts that are easy to study and calculate; the use of simple indicators that reflect the sum of important predictive factors; combining several indicators into one, etc. All these ways are within the ratio of analysis and synthesis in predictive studies, but in order to use them, it is necessary to find such groups of closely interrelated factors and phenomena that are either subject to similar patterns of development in space and time, or represent a single causal chain, or caused by one reason, etc. Only such groups can act as independent entities, as subsystems of the PTC.

Depending on the nature of the impact of the anthropogenic factor, all predicted changes in the NTC can be combined into three types (K.K. Markov et al., 1974). to the first type relate fromchanges nature, occurring without any human participation, under the influence of various natural factors: neotectonic movements, hydroclimatic changes, evolutionary changes in biogenic components, as a result of the process of self-development of the NTC, etc.

To the second and third types relate changes PTK underthe influence of the anthropogenic factor. They are subdivided into purposefulcorrected, i.e. those which are consciously produced or will be produced by man, and side, concomitant, unforeseen changes. The last type of change is especially

but there is great concern, since they arise as a result of economic activity, which humanity is not able to stop, and can lead to extremely undesirable consequences. These three types of changes occur at different speeds, in different directions and are characterized by different patterns, therefore they are predicted independently, however, taking into account their interrelations, and then integrated to establish a general trend in changing nature.

A comprehensive physical and geographical forecast characterizing the spatial and temporal changes in the NTC, in terms of territorial coverage (scale) can be global, regionalnym and local which corresponds to three levels of differentiation of the geographic shell (planetary, regional and topological).

Global forecasts are not tied to a specific territory, but are focused on the study of temporal evolutionary trends in the development of the Earth as a habitat. Regional ones are focused not so much on temporary as on territorial differences and solutions. Their objects are vast territories within the boundaries of some planned events. A regional forecast is developed taking into account the combination of different sectors of the economy (types of use of the territory) and various genetic types of PTK in the same territory. It helps to identify sustainable trends in changing nature, taking into account its landscape structure and the economic use of its resources. The local forecast is aimed at studying possible changes in the natural environment under the direct impact of various large economic facilities: cities, mining operations, hydraulic structures, etc.

As for the choice of a time interval for the forecast, it is determined by the social order, the possibilities of geography (its ideas about the permissible accuracy of definitions) and the duration of the phenomena underlying the changes in the NTC. In terms of forecasting time, all forecasts are divided into short-term(5-10 years), medium-term(15 - 30 years old) and long-term(50 - 70 years). The division of geographic forecasts for the foreseeable future into five categories according to the timing of forecasting, given by A. G. Isachenko (1980, p. 233), in our opinion, is not sufficiently substantiated, since it is not linked to the timing of socio-economic forecasts. Long-term socio-economic forecasts are for 25 - 30 years, the same period serves as the estimated period for the development of regional planning schemes, and the geographic long-term forecast should serve as a pre-project basis for their development, i.e., should cover a longer period.

The most relevant is the forecast within the next decades. As for short-term forecasts (up to 5 years), then

in such a short period of time, NTCs usually do not have time to noticeably transform, but experience interannual natural rhythms and temporary fluctuations depending on fluctuations in weather conditions.

The short-term geographic forecast is designed to provide the first stage of district planning schemes and projects (5-7 years), j the medium-term forecast - the second stage (10-15 years). Both of these forecasts should give a broader perspective, allowing to see at least the first results of changes in nature under the influence of planned activities, so their deadlines should be more distant than the timing of socio-economic forecasts.

As for ultra-short-term forecasts, they are usually not integral, relating to changes in the entire complex as a whole, but particular (yield forecast, weather forecast, etc.), or they predict dynamic shifts in modern processessah, but they do not actually give a forecast (prediction) of the expected directed changes in natural complexes, their development.

At present, the greatest experience has been accumulated in the development of local forecasts related to the design of large engineering structures. The issues of regional forecasting are less developed. The issues of global complex physical-geographical forecasting have not been developed at all.

Prediction of changes in NTC is usually due to natural factors proper (K. N. Dyakonov, 1972), the most dynamic of which are climatic ones. At long-term In forecasting, it turns out to be necessary to take into account such a factor as neotectonic movements.

Anthropogenic impacts, as it were, are superimposed on the tendencies of natural changes in nature, strengthening or weakening, and sometimes significantly modifying them, however, it is difficult to foresee possible anthropogenic impacts in the distant future, since they will depend on the level of development of technology and production technology, on the use of certain resources and development of new synthetic materials. Therefore, a long-term geographic forecast should be especially flexible and multivariate, should provide for the possible substitution of factors and be adjusted depending on the level of development of the productive forces. The long-term geographic forecast should become a pre-forecast basis for the development of long-term socio-economic forecasts.

With short-term forecasting, most natural processes do not have time to make noticeable changes in the NTC within the forecast period, so the forecast of changes in nature under the influence of the anthropogenic factor becomes of paramount importance. It is he who determines the future changes in the PTC. The short-term forecast is based on the current level of

development of productive forces, on the current level of anthropogenic impact, so it can be quite tough.

The forecast period of 25–30 years seems to be optimal for geographic forecasting, since it allows us to trace the trends in the natural development of nature and use materials from a long-term socio-economic forecast to assess the influence of the anthropogenic factor.

In order for a geographical forecast to be sufficiently reliable and to serve as a basis for managing environmental changes, long-term planning and administrative decision-making, it must be based on the general principles of forecasting developed by science: historical, comparative, evolutionary, etc. The forecast must be based on stable relationships between phenomena nature and interactions between nature and society, be flexible, multivariate, and the forecasting process itself - continuous.

The work on integrated physical-geographical forecasting begins with a detailed study of the NTCs existing in the study area, their modern properties, stable relationships, and the degree of anthropogenic change. Of particular importance is the study of the spatial structure of the NTC, which serves as a kind of territorial limiter of predicted changes. It is also necessary to collect materials on predicted changes in the composition of the population and the structure of the economy of the study area in order to assess the impact of anthropogenic factors in the future.

The change in nature under the influence of natural factors is predicted based on the analysis of the process of development of the NTC. Analysis of the past, i.e. paleogeographic analysis makes it possible to establish stable trends in the development of the NTC and makes it possible to predict these changes for the future. This prediction is largely based on comparative geographical analysis. By comparing similar PTCs at different stages of development, we establish the natural tendencies of their development. Comparison of complexes similar in natural conditions, but modified to varying degrees by man, makes it possible to judge the direction, nature, degree and speed of anthropogenic changes, to establish trends in the development of NTC under the influence of the anthropogenic factor.

Considering the future as a continuation of the past and the present, the established development trends can be extended to the forecast period. For this, they are used extra methodsfields. True, when using the method of historical extrapolation in forecasting, one must constantly remember the significant acceleration of natural processes under the influence of the anthropogenic factor and the qualitative changes in the natural environment as a result of the interaction of nature and society.

Established on the basis of an analysis of the past and present states of the PTC, the trends of their further development over the forecast period will change as a result of spontaneous changes in individual factors or under the influence of human economic activity. To take into account such changes in the PTC allows method of "chain reactions", which makes it possible to trace the entire chain of connections between various processes and phenomena and to form an idea of ​​their entire complex.

When developing a geographic forecast to justify various engineering and technical projects, method "ne-Shedge options", allowing, by analyzing and calculating various options for influencing nature, to choose the optimal one from them.

One of the popular and fairly simple forecasting methods is method of expert assessments. The specificity of its application in geographic forecasting lies in the selection of experts, who should not only be specialists in their own! business and have a lot of experience, but also good knowledge of regional features | the specificity of the territory for which the forecast is being developed. I

Thus, in the process of geographic forecasting, the methods of geographical research are widely used, and from the vast arsenal of prognostic methods, only those that are essentially closest to the research methods of geographical science itself are currently used. Primarily sch this concerns the comparative method, which in the forecasting literature is called comparative. In physical-geographical forecasting, this method is especially important, since it allows the use of territorial and historical analogies.

Closely related to the comparative method extra methodspolishing, allowing to extend the conclusions obtained in the study of several elements of the set to the entire set. Geographers have long used territorial extrapolations in their research, and when forecasting, the center of gravity is transferred to historical extrapolations, extrapolations in time.

Development modeling methods in complex physical and geographical " Physical research is accompanied by their simultaneous implementation in geographic forecasting. First of all, it concerns logical and mathematical modeling.

The gradual improvement of scientific forecasting methods and the accumulation of experience in the development of various geographical forecasts will make it possible to create a fairly reliable and well-established method of complex physical and geographical forecasting - an integral part of a general geographical forecast, the need for which increases as the interaction between nature and society becomes more complicated.

CONCLUSION

The main objective of this manual is to introduce the methods of complex physical and geographical research, primarily field studies, since the field for a landscape geographer is the main laboratory for obtaining new scientific data.

Not being able to tell about everything due to the limited volume of the manual, we stopped at the main thing. Of the traditional methods, we chose comparative geographic and cartographic methods, implemented in the form of field descriptions and maps of the NTC, reflecting their spatial distribution and structure, without which any serious further studies of natural geosystems are impossible.

Of the new methods, landscape-geochemical and landscape-geophysical are considered, which make it possible to reveal the inner essence of the processes that determine the functioning and dynamics of the NTC. Of the latest methods, only computer ones have been touched. However, computer technology is developing so rapidly that what has been said will very soon (and constantly) require updating. However, to some extent this applies to all methods. In the third millennium, geographical science faced new challenges related to global environmental problems and the development of sustainable development projects at all levels of society organization. In this regard, now, more than ever, the need for the integration of science is acutely felt.

A. G. Isachenko at the X Congress of the Russian Geographical Society (1995) spoke about the great disunity in the system of branches of physical geography, noting at the same time that the links of physical geography with the natural sciences are still closer than with their "sister" - economic geography. And this gap is dangerous. We need joint complex work - "dual" geography should be unified.

Currently, the trends of greening and humanization of geography have intensified. Undoubtedly, the methods of geographic, including complex physical-geographical

research.

The development of geography went from "arithmetic" (pure specificity) to "algebra" (classification, typification). The expeditionary era lasted for a long time, for which there were enough unexplored lands.

1 1 Bug 305

After its completion, it was time to move on to stationary studies, to "differential and integral calculus," consideration of velocities and accelerations, and analysis of time! and spatial increments. Now the transition to cybernetic systemic, non-linear (fractal) phenomena is being carried out. In recent decades, formal laws have been discovered that describe the unified behavior of various natural and anthropogenic systems, universal coefficients have been found that determine the conditions for the transition to a new quality for any processes: population growth, transition from laminar to turbulent motion, transition of the heart rhythm to fibrillation, chemical reactions, up to human behavior, economics and politics (X.O. Peitgen, P.H. Richter, 1993). On this basis, a new revision of methods is coming, and the problem of continuity arises.

We only see what we know. When perceiving, a person tends to “decompose” complex configurations into simpler ones and to constant synthesis. Perception is a recreation of reality (G. Haken, M. Haken-Krehl, 2002). It follows from this that to teach to see means to teach to recreate images from details. Psychophysiologists have found that perception, firstly, obeys | formal laws common to all systems (cybernetic), secondly, it constantly self-organizes.

In order to “remake the image”, for example, during training, it is necessary to transfer the ability to see the details (analyze) and the ability to “assemble” the whole from these details. At one time, the characteristics of the territory were given by the method of component analysis. Subsequently, this method was condemned for so long, opposing the complex, landscape vision of the territory (which, in fact, lies in the ability to recreate the whole from parts), that it almost disappeared from school textbooks and leaves universities. Another ".] extreme has come. But this is a two-pronged process: without analysis there can be no synthesis. We hope that this manual will help in this, that is, it will help to "see".

To master or develop something new, to carry out joint work with representatives of related or distant scientific areas is possible only after mastering the basics of one's own discipline, building on this foundation everything that is required to achieve the goal.

In conclusion, once again about field research. They are irreplaceable. No matter how much literature we read, no matter how much we study the most beautiful maps, aerial and space photographs, photographs, we will not get a complete, comprehensive geographical idea of ​​the object of study. Only thanks to field work and subsequent careful processing of materials (of course, using the experience of predecessors) we

We fight that our models (graphic, textual, mental and others) will be more or less adequate to the geographical reality.

The field shapes the novice researcher. The nature of his scientific thinking, theoretical views, conceptual constructions largely depends on the landscape environment in which the future scientist began his field research or in what landscapes he mostly worked. That is why, giving primary attention to the study of any region, it is always useful to work in others. This broadens the geographic horizon and allows you to get rid of limited (sometimes not entirely correct) ideas.

Forecasting the state of the natural environment is a necessary condition for solving rational problems. Of particular importance is geographic forecasting, since it is complex and involves an assessment of the dynamics of natural and natural-economic systems in the future using both component and integral indicators.

Geographic forecasting is understood as the development of scientifically based judgments about the state and development trends of the natural environment in the future for making decisions on its rational use. This direction of geographical research can be defined even more simply as a prediction of the future state of the natural environment. The works of I.P. Gerasimova, T.V. Zvonkovoy, V.B. Sochava, F.N. Milkova, A.G. Isachenko, A.G. Emelyanova, N.I. Koronkevich, K.N. Dyakonova and other researchers.

Forecasts are classified: 1) into component (industry) - hydrological, meteorological, etc.; complex - the dynamics of the state of the natural complex as a whole is assessed; 2) local (spatial from several square kilometers to several thousand square kilometers), regional (from several thousand square kilometers to hundreds of thousands of square kilometers), global (from hundreds of thousands of square kilometers to the territorial level of generating systems); 3) for short-term (time scale from several to several days); medium-term (from several days to a year); long-term (from a year to centuries and millennia).

The most developed methods for predicting the natural environment include methods of physical-geographical extrapolation, physical-geographical analogies, landscape-genetic series, functional dependencies, and expert assessments. They are systematically presented in the work of A.G. Emelyanov. Based on this publication, we will briefly consider the essence of these methods.

The method of physical-geographical extrapolation is based on the distribution of previously identified directions of development of the natural complex, on its spatial and temporal dynamics in the future. The method of physical and geographical analogies is based on the position that the patterns of development of the process, identified in the conditions of one natural complex (analog), with certain amendments, are transferred to another, which is in identical conditions with the first. The method of landscape-genetic series is based on the fact that the patterns of development established for spatial changes in natural processes can be transferred to their temporal dynamics, and vice versa. The method of functional dependencies is based on identifying factors that determine the dynamics of the predicted process, and finding relationships between them and process indicators. The method of expert assessments is to determine the future state of the predicted object by studying the opinions of various specialists (experts).

At present, the method of simulation modeling is increasingly used to solve predictive problems. It is based on the construction of a simulation mathematical model that reflects the spatio-temporal relationships of natural complexes, and its computer implementation. Forecast calculations are carried out as follows. The impacts are set on the model inputs: 1) from regional forecasts of changes in natural conditions; 2) from a long-term program of economic development of the territory. At the outputs of the model, we obtain a forecast of the state of the natural environment.

We will consider the application of this method on the example of predicting the geoecological consequences of changes in the regional climate. The study was carried out using a model of a basin-landscape system built for the natural and economic conditions of the river basin. Pregolya - the main water artery of the Kaliningrad region.

The model includes water balance equations, dependence of phytomass and yield (on the example of winter wheat) on hydrothermal conditions, soil fertility, organic and fertilizer application, balances of vegetation phytomass, humus, nitrogen and phosphorus in the soil cover, nitrogen and phosphorus in groundwater and water, and also the equation of relations between balances. It is designed to calculate changes in the natural environment in retrospect and in the prospect of decades and centuries. Calculations are given for the period of time from 1995 to 2025, within which scientifically based scenarios have been developed and regional development programs are being drawn up.

As a scenario for the inputs of the model, a linear increase by 2025 in the average annual air by 1°С and annual by 50 mm is set compared to modern values. These data correspond to the developments for the change for the territory of the Kaliningrad region. Analysis of the simulation results showed the following changes in the components of the basin-landscape system of the river. Pregoli.

Forest vegetation and soil cover. phytomass increases by the end of the calculation period. Soil cover indicators: the content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus experience opposite changes. A slight decrease in these values ​​is probably due to an increase in their assimilation by the growing phytomass of forest vegetation, as well as an increase in surface and infiltration.

Agricultural vegetation and soil cover. The phytomass and productivity of agricultural vegetation (on the example of grain crops) also increases by the end of the calculation period. The content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus is reduced. The decrease in these substances in the soil is associated with an increase in their removal with the harvest, surface washout and infiltration.

River and ground waters. The discharge of river waters and the level of groundwaters increase by the end of the calculation period, which confirms the more significant impact of climate humidification on the basin-landscape system. There is a tendency to increase the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in the waters, which is explained by an increase in the supply of these substances with surface washout and infiltration.

The geoecological consequences of the implementation of the scenario of regional warming and climate humidification cannot be unambiguously assessed. Changes in the following parameters can be assessed as positive. The productivity and phytomass of forest vegetation increases. This will probably occur due to an increase in the proportion of broad-leaved trees, which will lead to greater geobotanical diversity and an increase in the environment-forming and resource-forming functions of forest geosystems. An increase in the yield of agricultural vegetation (for example, winter wheat) due to warming and moistening of the regional climate by 2 c/ha is adequate to such an increase due to an increase in the application rates of mineral nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers by 1.2–1.3 times compared with the application rates by 1.2–1.3 times. fields of the Kaliningrad region. Accounting for this circumstance will save financial resources on a more rational use of fertilizers and reduce nitrogen-phosphorus pollution of the natural environment. At the same time, due to the increase in the removal of nutrients from the soil with the harvest, adequate fertilizer application is necessary in order to maintain and increase soil fertility. There is a significant increase in groundwater levels. lacustrine-glacial and coastal, occupying a significant area in the Kaliningrad region and having a depth of 0.5 -1.5 m, may be subjected to. Given that 95% of agricultural land and 80% of forest area in the region has been reclaimed, rising groundwater levels could override positive impacts.

The results of the simulation show the need for careful consideration in the economic activities in the territory of the Kaliningrad region of the geoecological consequences of the upcoming climate change. It is required to develop a well-thought-out system, improve soil fertility, forest management and other areas of nature management, taking into account the noted consequences. This approach can be used for other regions as well. The given example illustrates the need to apply geographic forecasting to solve the problems of rational nature management.

Dear Users! In this chapter, you will learn what is forecasting, forecasting, geographic forecasting and forecasting, forecasting methods, global, regional and local geographic forecasts.

In the course of his economic activity, a person is interested not only in the current natural conditions, he is also concerned about changes that may occur in the future. Consequently, the study and preliminary forecasting of natural conditions are also of great importance in terms of meeting human needs. Studying the chapters of this topic, you will get acquainted with the concept of geographic forecast, its methods, types and issues of assessing changes in the natural complexes of Uzbekistan.

The concept of geographic forecast

Forecasting the state of the geographic envelope in the future, scientific substantiation of the issues of preventing the harmful effects of human activity on the natural environment in the conditions of the scientific and technological revolution are one of the priority tasks of modern geography.

In science, the ability to foresee and predict phenomena or changes in the state of an object that may take place in the future is called a forecast.

At the present stage of development, there are concepts of forecasting and forecasting. Forecasting is the process of collecting data on changes in the state of the phenomenon or object being studied. The forecast is the final result of the research obtained as a result of forecasting. In principle, a forecast is understood as a characteristic of the future state of the object or phenomenon under study.

Geographic forecasting is a process of collecting and accumulating information about the development and changes in the natural and socio-economic environment.

A geographic forecast is understood as a scientifically based prediction of the main directions in changes in the natural environment and territorial production structures.

Recently, as a result of accelerating the pace of scientific and technological development, scientific research in the field of forecasting is also being carried out intensively. The time required to put scientific ideas into practice has been drastically reduced, which of course increased the scale of the impact on the environment. As a result, the time of the reverse influence of the environment on a person has also changed. And this influence is usually negative. And the ability to predict such cause-and-effect processes in nature is now becoming even more important. Otherwise, ecological catastrophes from the category of local ones pass into regional and global ones. As an example, let's take the tragedy of the Aral Sea.

Geographic forecasts are carried out in several ways. For example, a project to change the channels of the Siberian rivers and direct them to Central Asia and Kazakhstan was developed in several versions, taking into account possible environmental consequences. There were 5-6 options, of which the most optimal was subsequently selected, on the basis of which all calculations were carried out.

Geographical forecasts are compiled for periods of different duration, respectively, the following groups are distinguished: operational forecast (compiled for one month), short-term forecast (from one month to one year), medium-term forecast (from 1 year to 5 years), long-term forecast (from 5 years to 15 years), extra-long (over 15 years).

To conduct a natural geographical forecast, the properties of the components of natural complexes to be assessed are determined. The relief, rocks, soil, water, flora and fauna of each region are strictly specific. All information reflecting these properties of the components of natural complexes is widely used in the process of geographic forecasting.

Relief. Depressions accumulate man-made products (waste). Elevations, on the contrary, contribute to their dispersion. Foothill slopes can have a positive or negative effect on the density of these products, the ability to decompose, as well as their behavior when released into groundwater.

Rocks. Permeable and waterproof rocks, their thickness affects the state of the external environment.

Water. The amount of organic substances dissolved in it, the annual volume and the flow rate are important. The greater the flow velocity, respectively, the faster the water pollutants are carried away. Organic substances dissolved in water contribute to the rapid dissolution of heavy metals.

The soil. Redox, acid-base conditions. They determine the ability of the soil to self-purify.

Plants. Species that absorb harmful (polluting) substances. Given the above properties, it is possible to predict changes in the external environment.

Remember!

A geographic forecast is understood as a scientifically based prediction of the main directions in changes in the natural environment and territorial production complexes.

Geographic forecasting is a process of collecting and accumulating information about the development and changes in the natural and socio-economic environment.

Do you know?

Imagine what will happen if the average temperature rises by 3-4°C. There will be a shift of climatic regions by hundreds of kilometers, the borders of agriculture will reach the northern regions, and glaciers will melt. The ice of the Arctic Ocean will disappear in the summer, which will create favorable conditions for navigation. On the other hand, the climate of Moscow and nearby territories will be similar to the real climatic conditions of Transcaucasia. The equatorial zone will move to the north, to the Sahara. The ice of both Antarctica and Greenland will melt, which will entail an increase in ocean level by 66 m, and, consequently, this circumstance will cause 25% of the land to go under water.

According to UN experts, by 2010 the world's population will reach 7 billion, by 2025 - 8.5 billion, and by 2040 it may reach 10 billion people.

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It is necessary to distinguish between the concept of "forecast" and "forecasting". Forecasting is the process of obtaining data about the possible state of the object under study. Forecast is the result of predictive research. There are many general definitions of the term “forecast”: a forecast is a definition of the future, a forecast is a scientific hypothesis about the development of an object, a forecast is a characteristic of the future state of an object, a forecast is an assessment of development prospects.

Despite some differences in the definitions of the term “forecast”, apparently related to differences in the goals and objects of the forecast, in all cases the researcher’s thought is directed to the future, that is, the forecast is a specific type of knowledge, where not what is, but what will be. But a judgment about the future is not always a forecast. For example, there are natural events that do not raise doubts and do not require forecasting (change of day and night, seasons of the year). In addition, determining the future state of an object is not an end in itself, but a means of scientific and practical solution to many general and particular modern problems, the parameters of which, based on the possible future state of the object, are currently set.

The general logical scheme of the forecasting process is presented as a sequential set.

First, ideas about past and present patterns and trends in the development of the forecasting object.

Secondly, the scientific substantiation of the future development and state of the object.

Thirdly, ideas about the causes and factors that determine the change in the object, as well as the conditions that stimulate or hinder its development.

Fourth, predictive conclusions and management decisions.

For the solution of many cognitive and practical problems, complex forecasts, including the actual geographic forecast, are becoming increasingly important. Its importance is especially great for the substantiation and testing of various concepts of economic and social development, in the preparation of planning and technical projects.

Geographers define forecasting primarily as scientifically substantiated prediction of trends in changes in the natural environment and production territorial systems (Sachava, 1978).

In the aspect of the evolution of geosystems, this is a special task, the solution of which belongs to the field of geography, and in terms of current dynamics, that is, the change of one variable in the structure of another, it is an actual subject of the study of geosystems. This kind of dynamics, although it manifests itself in the spontaneous development of nature, is most often a consequence of human influence on the environment. It contributes to all its activities, in particular, the development of the area and the development of natural resources. Therefore, forecasting the directions of the current dynamics is a necessary condition for any rational use of natural resources.

The geographic forecast concerns only the human natural environment. The socio-economic forecast is built on other grounds, although also taking into account the dynamics of the natural environment. On the other hand, economic and social motives are also taken into account in geographical forecasting, but only from the point of view of their impact on nature. This is quite enough, since, in addition to developing the actual geographical forecast, the geographer participates in the preparation of a socio-economic forecast, in particular, concerning the prospects for the development of territorial production systems.

Some concepts of forecasting. The paper uses the terminology of general prognostication developed by the Committee for Scientific and Technical Terminology of the USSR Academy of Sciences (Zvonkova, 187).

Purpose and object of forecasting. The forecasting process begins with the definition of its purpose and object, since they determine the type of forecast, the content and set of forecasting methods, its temporal and spatial parameters. The goals and objects of forecasting can be very different. At present, the main, most relevant and very responsible goal of geographic forecasting is to predict the state of the natural environment in which a person will live. At the same time, the goal is not only to predict the state of air, water and soil, but in general the geographical environment, its nature and economy.

When choosing a forecast object, you can use a classification based on the following six features (Zvonkova, 1987).

The nature of the forecast object. A geographic forecast tied to a particular region most often comes into contact with other forecast objects of different natural properties.

Scale of the forecast object: sublocal, with the number of significant variables from 1 to 3, local (from 4 to 14), subglobal (from 15 to 35), global (from 36 to 100), superglobal (more than 100 significant variables). In geography, there are objects of all scales.

The complexity of the forecasting object, determined by the variety of its elements, the number of significant variables and the nature of the relationships between them. According to these features, objects can be distinguished: supersimple, in which the variables are not significantly related to each other; simple -- pairwise relationships between variables; complex -- relationships between three or more variables; supercomplex, in the study of which the relationship between all variables is taken into account. In geographic forecasting, the researcher most often deals with super complex objects.

Degree of determinism: deterministic objects in which the random component is insignificant and can be neglected; stochastic objects, in the description of which it is necessary to take into account their random component; mixed objects with deterministic and stochastic characteristics. Geographic forecasting is primarily characterized by stochastic and mixed characteristics of objects.

The nature of development in time: discrete objects, the regular component (trend) of which changes in jumps at fixed points in time, the trend is an analytical or geographical representation of the change in a variable over time. Aperiodic objects, the regular component of which is described by an aperiodic continuous function of times; cyclic objects having a regular component as a periodic function of time. In geographic forecasting, all types of development of an object in time are used.

The degree of information security, determined by the completeness of the available qualitative or quantitative retrospective information about the objects of the forecast. In geographic forecasting, the researcher deals with objects that are provided mainly with qualitative information about their past development. This is especially true for the natural component of the forecast.

Basic operating units of forecasting. All forecasting objects change in time and space.

Therefore, time and space are the main operational units of forecasting. Which operating unit is more important? Some geographers consider the historical-genetic (Saushkin, 1976) and structural-dynamic (Sachava, 1974) to be the main principles of forecasting. Thus, they give preference to the temporal aspects of forecasting. Indeed, the problem of time in general forecasting is the central problem, but in geographical forecasting, dealing with regions, spaces of different ranks, a combination of spatial and temporal aspects is necessary.

The main problem of geographical forecasting. Geographic forecasting is, as a rule, the solution of a complex of problems that are part of the preplanned development of a future plan. But of the many problems, first of all, it is necessary to choose the main and common problem for geographers.

The choice of such a problem should be based on the following criteria (Zvonkov, 1987).

Compliance of the problem with modern social and scientific and technical needs.

The relevance of the problem for a long period of time (25 - 30 years or more).

The presence of scientific prerequisites, in particular, appropriate methods for solving the problem.

It follows from the listed general criteria that the main task is to geographically substantiate the long-term development of the national economy in its regional aspect, and the main scientific problem common to geographers is the prediction of changes in the natural environment in natural and technogenic conditions.