1. The need for a new quality of education The Government of the Russian Federation "stakes" on the innovative vector of the country's development. This rate "may be justified" provided that the effectiveness of the sphere of human and social potential development, the basis of which is the sphere of education, grows. In this regard, education is beginning to be seen not as a costly industry, but as an area for strategic investment. In order for such an approach to education to become a reality, it is necessary to create an adequate system for assessing the quality of education for the investment approach.

2. The concept of education quality The meaning of the concept of "education quality" is determined in the context of the concepts used about the structure of the education sector. Education has a threefold nature. One aspect of ideas about education is related to the institutional forms of organizing the practice of education; the other - with the means of educational activities and, finally, the third aspect of ideas about education is associated with the personal achievements of the student (Fig. 1).

The quality of education is a special knowledge, which includes: a description of the conditions that makes it possible to display the level of competitiveness of the institutional forms used for organizing the practice of education; description of educational programs, which allows to display the level of efficiency of the means of educational activity used; description of educational results, which allows to display the level of demand for the student's personal achievements.

The quality of education exists in the space of reflection on the processes of measuring and evaluating the state of the practice of education. The quality of education in the space of reflection as a special knowledge "arises at the time of production" of meaningful judgments about the level of: competitiveness of the institutional forms used for organizing the practice of education; the effectiveness of the means of educational activity used; the demand for personal achievements of the student. Through such descriptions, the quality of education is not only assessed within the educational industry, but acquires the status of a socially significant concept that affects the development of the human and social potential of the territory.

The conceptual basis of the education quality assessment system at the school level is that education quality assurance is achieved through a network of processes that should be analyzed and continuously improved by school managers at various levels in their area of ​​specific jurisdiction and responsibility. This leads to the need to map the OS processes.

4. Regulations on the quality of education (generalized version) Section 1. The policy of an educational institution in the field of education quality and educational needs of the public. The system of evaluation of educational results is based on the principle of understanding productive action (principle of PAP). The principle of PPD as an assessment principle is indicated as follows: “Evaluation is focused on fixing the success of each individual student. Success is any relative achievement (advancement) of a student in educational activities and outside of educational activities, which he consciously understands, internally accepts and purposefully does.

Section 2. Assessment of the quality of education Assessment of the quality of education includes: assessment of the quality of organizational culture; assessment of the quality of educational results. Evaluation of the quality of the organizational culture The state of the organizational culture of the educational institution is manifested in what processes are used in management and how, through them, it is possible to ensure optimal correspondence between the content of the educational program of the educational institution and the existing conditions. Assessment of the state of organizational culture in the educational institution is carried out through the evaluation of the following processes:

1) ensuring the functional results of training and education in an educational institution; 2) reproduction of the professionalism of teaching staff in an educational institution; 3) optimization of the composition of pedagogical positions in an educational institution; 4) competent leadership; 5) positioning of the educational institution; 6) organization of rational cooperation in the intra-school division of labor; 7) organization of innovative changes in an educational institution. In the procedures for assessing the quality of organizational culture, 21 criteria are used - three for each of the designated processes.

Ensuring the functional results of training and education in an educational institution is determined by the indicator "level of functional literacy of students". Criteria: the use of subject concepts as a means in the implementation of design and research activities; the use of key competencies as a means of adapting to various teaching aids and moving from one level of school to another; using the experience of carrying out socially significant activities for embedding in public life.

The reproduction of the professionalism of teaching staff in an educational institution is determined by the indicator "the level of representation and dissemination of modern norms of pedagogical work in an educational institution". Criteria: use of digital resources in the design and exchange of experience; the use of reflexive forms of analysis of one's own activity; the use of synergistic forms in methodological activities.

Optimization of the composition of pedagogical positions in an educational institution is determined by the indicator "the level of compliance of the provisions on the official duties of pedagogical workers with the content of the educational program." Criteria: the use of the content of the educational program for the development and execution of requirements for the quantitative composition of the staffing of the educational institution; using the content of the educational program to develop and formalize requirements for the results of the activities of staff members of an educational institution; using the content of the educational program to develop and formalize requirements for the rights and obligations of staff members of an educational institution.

Competent leadership is determined by the indicator "the level of formalizability of relations between the manager and the subordinate." Criteria: use of assignment procedures to regulate hierarchical relations in an educational institution”; use of ordering procedures to regulate competitive relations in an educational institution”; the use of conflict law procedures to resolve contradictions in the relationship between the leader and the subordinate.

The positioning of an educational institution is determined by the indicator “the level of attracting additional resources to an educational institution”. Criteria: use of targeted programs, grant competitions, innovative projects to raise funds; the use of public reports of the director to form a positive image in the social environment; use of network forms of interaction within the framework of general and vocational education with corporate structures for joint investment activities.

The organization of rational cooperation in the intra-school division of labor is determined by the indicator "the level of exchange of results of activities in the intra-school division of labor." Criteria: use of information and communication technologies for interaction in an educational institution; the use of open formats for presenting the results of the activities of teaching staff of an educational institution; use of joint forms of medium-term and long-term planning.

The organization of innovative changes in an educational institution is determined by the indicator "the level of use of modern organizational and managerial mechanisms that ensure the formation of modern educational practice." Criteria: use of program and design forms to implement the necessary changes in the activities of an educational institution; use of the legal framework to legitimize ongoing changes in the activities of an educational institution; the use of modern financial and economic tools to ensure the necessary changes in the activities of an educational institution.

For each of the above indicators, six levels of assessment are distinguished (Table 3). Each level is assigned a point equivalent (level 6 - 6 points, level 1 - 1 point). The total score range for each criterion: 3 - 18 points. Tab. 3. Levels of performance evaluation Level 6 Excellent Organizational culture benchmark Level 5 Very good Definite strengths in the presentation of organizational culture norms Level 4 Good Strengths in important areas of the organizational culture with aspects requiring improvement Level 3 Fair Strengths in organizational culture slightly outweigh weaknesses Level 2 Weak Weaknesses in important areas organizational culture Level 1 Unsatisfactory Obvious weaknesses in organizational culture

The following characteristics of organizational culture assessment levels are introduced: assessment perfectly characterizes the norm, which is the standard of organizational culture, excellent assessment is an outstanding standard of the norm; the assessment very well characterizes the norm, which has key advantages; there are only a few areas of improvement, and none of them significantly reduces the level of the norm; the assessment applies well to a norm that has important advantages (the level of assessment is slightly reduced on aspects that need improvement);

An estimate is satisfactorily applied to a norm if it has advantages that barely outweigh the disadvantages; the assessment is weakly applied to the norm if it is characterized by several advantages in the presence of significant shortcomings; the score can be weakly obtained if there are some advantages, but the significant disadvantages, either individually or collectively, are sufficiently serious; the assessment is not satisfactorily applied when there are significant deficiencies in the norm that require immediate corrective action.

Evaluation of the quality of educational results The system of evaluation of educational results is based on establishing the compliance of the actual values ​​of the level of students' preparation with the requirements of the civil order. The civil order provides an optimal correspondence between the content of the educational program, the educational needs of the parent community and the requirements of the state educational standard. The civil order contains the following types of educational outcomes: academic knowledge; competencies; health and safety; spiritual and moral values.

Academic knowledge is understood as a set of concepts, ideas and ways that allow the student to navigate the culture. Competences are understood as generated (“grown”, becoming) abilities and skills that enable a person to self-determine in social strata, to think and act effectively. Key competencies: theoretical thinking as the ability for special types of generalization and reflection, the ability to act in an uncertain situation, set goals and objectives; innovativeness as the ability to propose and implement one's own ideas and own educational trajectories, to build and maintain an individual position; communication as the ability to understand interaction and the ability to work with information, the ability to work in a team.

Health and safety are understood as the development of the physical abilities of students to master the world and be included in the modern social reality, to use personal resources. Spiritual and moral values ​​are understood as the basis of "a person to be a person", they determine the behavior and actions of students, ensure the formation of a positive social identity. The designated types of educational results, as well as the types of activities to achieve them, are regulated by the Main educational program of the educational institution. This program consists of four educational programs.

The first educational program of the Basic educational program is a curriculum and consists of programs of academic subjects. It takes 70% of class time and 30% of extracurricular time for independent work and homework. This program is a form and regulation of educational activities, which mainly take place in the form of lessons and classes. Main educational results: system sets of subject concepts - academic knowledge; system of basic educational activities; ability to work independently in a group, including independently doing homework; ability to work with texts and other sign systems; ability to solve undefined problems.

The second educational program of the Basic Educational Program is called "Social Creativity and Excellence". The content of this program is educational design, and the form of implementation is workshops or studios. This program takes up 20% of the student's class time and 30% of the student's extracurricular time. The general focus of this educational program is to create a product for students that reflects the competencies listed in the workshop or studio program. Main educational results: created product, which reflects the competencies declared in the program of the workshop or studio; ways of organizing events and holding a general competition for evaluating the products of the activities of workshops or studios; ways for the authors to present their product at the competition for external evaluation.

The third educational program of the Basic Educational Program is called “Social Maturity and Citizenship”. The content of this program is the experience of socially significant activities, and the form of implementation is social projects. The overall focus of this educational program is to ensure that students' social projects are included in competitive programs outside the school. Main educational outcomes: service, understood as voluntary participation in socially significant projects; social experience, formalized in joint reflexive procedures.

The fourth educational program of the Main educational program is called "Spiritual, moral and physical education". The content of this program is the development by students of cultural norms and values ​​that reflect morality and spirituality, security and physical perfection, and the form of implementation is events. This program takes up 10% of academic and 20% of extracurricular time. The educational outcomes of teachers and students in this program are indistinguishable.

The procedures for assessing the quality of educational results include the following stages: 1. At the beginning of the academic year, the administration of the educational institution, together with the teaching staff and the Governing Council, hold an open project session. Within the framework of this session, specific goals are set to ensure the quality of educational results and the following are developed: assessment indicators; procedures and grading scale; ways to achieve the possible level of individual achievement; "steps to implement" achievements. For different groups of students (ideally for each student), together with teachers and representatives of the Governing Council, a specific goal is designated for each of the indicators, which it should focus on during the “implementation step”.

2. At the end of the “implementation step”, an open reflective session is held, during which the “reconciliation” of the stated goals and the results achieved is carried out. The difference between them is compared on the scale of evaluation. 3. The effectiveness of training (E) is evaluated on the basis of the actual quantitative assessments of the indicators as a percentage according to the following formula: where: n - the number of indicators; x i - planned value of the i-th indicator; x facti - the actual quantitative assessment of the i-th indicator.

Section 3. Informing about the state of the quality of education The obtained data on ensuring the quality of education are presented to the public publicly and on the website of the educational institution. Based on the results, public discussions are organized, joint proposals are developed. A special form of presentation of the obtained results to the public is organized - "Open negotiation platform".

M.F. Gatsko - Deputy Head of the 4th Central Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense of Russia,
Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, Professor of the Academy of Military Sciences

Despite the fact that at present the immediate danger of a large-scale war has been removed, the Russian Federation still faces many negative processes that represent external threats to its military security. Consider their development in the main geostrategic areas

Despite certain positive changes, such as the end of the Cold War, improved relations between Russia and the United States, and progress made in the disarmament process, the world has not become more stable and secure. The former ideological confrontation was replaced by the geopolitical rivalry of new centers of power, the confrontation of ethnic groups, religions and civilizations. There is a growing tendency to resolve conflicts with the use of military force, which leads to destabilization of the situation in the world.

Despite the fact that at present the immediate danger of a large-scale war has been removed, the Russian Federation still faces many negative processes that represent external threats to its military security. Let us consider their development along the main geostrategic directions.

In the West (Europe and the US), the main potential military threat to Russia continues to come from the US and NATO.
The current military-political situation in the West is characterized by the strengthening of US claims to the role of world leader, as well as tendencies of political, economic, and military integration of Western European countries, the ultimate goal of which is to pursue a common foreign policy, including the spheres of security and defense, which in a number of areas does not coincides with the interests of Russia's military security.

Despite the improvement in relations between the United States and Russia, the American military-political leadership still considers Russia as the main potential adversary. The United States, as the leading NATO country, directs its main efforts to prevent Russia from restoring the status of a strong power and from forming a new coalition of states under its leadership. The priority in US foreign policy is still a forceful approach to solving the whole range of international problems. For these purposes, the potential of the most powerful military structure in the world, the US armed forces, is openly used. According to expert estimates, today the US armed forces number about 1 million 400 thousand professional military personnel (contract servicemen). In addition, the US military organization includes an organized reserve, consisting of the National Guard and the reserve of the 1st stage - a total of 1 million 230 thousand people. The American armed forces are equipped with state-of-the-art equipment, their personnel are highly trained and have considerable combat experience.

The US military budget in 2007 exceeded half a trillion (506.3 billion) dollars, which is 25 times the national defense spending of the Russian Federation. The total budget of the US Department of Defense is practically the same amount that all the other countries of the world, combined, spend on maintaining their armies.

Of particular danger to Russia at present is the expansion of NATO by including the states of Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, as well as plans to involve Ukraine, Georgia and other CIS states in the alliance.

With the accession of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to NATO in 1999, the military grouping of the alliance was able to advance 650-750 km to the East. and 500 km. South. Characteristically, the recruitment of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary into the alliance was almost immediately followed by a NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. Instead of peace and tranquility, the new NATO members, primarily the Hungarians, got a war on their borders.

On March 26, 2003, a protocol was signed in Brussels on the entry into the North Atlantic Alliance of the Seven: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. In 2004, these countries became full members of the NATO bloc. Due to the accession to the alliance of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, the NATO military group advanced eastward by another 300–500 km. Now the borders of contact of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with a potential enemy in the West are already along the border of the Leningrad and Pskov regions, and the Russian 11th Guards Army located in the Kaliningrad region was completely blocked. The entry of the said "seven" added almost 200,000 troops to NATO.

As a result of expansion, the combined armed forces of the NATO bloc states in Europe have 25 army corps, 105 separate brigades, 43 divisions, 17 thousand tanks, 6300 combat aircraft, 700 warships. In fact, at present, the Russian military potential in Europe is four times inferior to NATO in terms of the number of ground weapons and twice in terms of aviation.

With the admission of the Baltic countries to NATO, this bloc received at its disposal about 290 airfields, on which up to 3,500 combat aircraft can be concentrated. The flight time of military aircraft from the Baltic airfields (Siauliai, Riga, Tallinn, etc.) to the state border of the Russian Federation is almost a few minutes. The use of these airfields will allow all NATO tactical aviation to carry out missile and bomb strikes as far as the Volga. The Baltic military infrastructure left over from the Soviet Army (airfields, ports, warehouses, barracks, etc.) allows NATO, if necessary, to deploy a 280,000-strong mobile military group on the Baltic foothold within a week. At the same time, the air strike capability zone of the Alliance Air Force will expand to the Urals. Currently, sufficiently powerful radar stations operate in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, allowing them to "view" the territory of Russia to a depth of up to 600 kilometers. In all this, this objectively poses a danger to the interests of the military security of the Russian Federation.

In recent years, the NATO leadership has been actively working on the issue of including Ukraine in the alliance. NATO's relations with Ukraine began to develop back in 1991, when it gained sovereignty and became a member of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. In 1994, Ukraine joined the Partnership for Peace program, and in 1997, the Charter for a Distinctive Partnership between NATO and Ukraine was signed. Ukraine is increasingly preparing for the transition to NATO standards in many areas of military construction and support, and is engaged in the retraining of its military personnel. A joint NATO-Ukraine working group on military reform operates in Ukraine, and Ukrainian military personnel take part in exercises conducted by NATO. On March 17, 2004, the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine decided on the possibility of granting NATO troops the right of quick access to the territory of Ukraine and transit, if necessary for the implementation of the common policy of the alliance. In March 2006, President of Ukraine V. Yushchenko signed a decree "On the establishment of an interdepartmental commission to prepare for the country's accession to NATO." It is officially stated that Ukraine intends to join NATO in 2008.

For the Russian Federation, the involvement of Ukraine in the NATO bloc would be a severe blow. After all, Ukraine has been part of Russia since the 17th century, Russians and Little Russians jointly ensured the military security of the state. Millions of Russians live in Ukraine, as well as those who consider Russian as their native language (almost half of Ukraine). Modern Russian public opinion cannot imagine Ukraine as a member of the NATO bloc, whose reputation for the majority of Russians is negative. It seems that under the current conditions, the Russian Federation should use all available opportunities to prevent the involvement of the fraternal people of Ukraine in the mainstream of the clearly anti-Russian policy of the NATO bloc. Otherwise, the interests of our military security will be seriously damaged.

Today, the number of military formations of only European NATO member states, excluding American military personnel, is 1.4 million military personnel and 1 million reservists.

As a result of NATO expansion, the alliance's overall military potential in terms of conventional, including heavy, weapons has grown significantly. The increase was not so much due to the armaments of the Baltic states that joined the alliance, but due to the fact that NATO has the opportunity to deploy additional weapons and develop the infrastructure of conventional weapons on the territory of the Baltic states. Consequently, the expansion of NATO clearly upsets the balance that has developed during and during the operation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

Picture 1. NATO global space

At present, twenty-six states are members of NATO. In the future, the NATO leadership plans to include forty-six European states (excluding Russia) in the bloc.

NATO's Riga Summit in November 2006 endorsed the concept of a "global partnership" that envisages the involvement of Sweden and Finland, as well as Japan, Australia and South Korea, in future NATO operations. The NATO leadership offered Serbia, Bosnia and Montenegro to start the procedure for joining the alliance under the Partnership for Peace program, and Albania, Croatia and Macedonia were promised an invitation to join the alliance in 2008.
The expansion of the NATO bloc and its approach to the borders of Russia cannot but threaten its security. According to expert estimates, the North Atlantic military bloc is now capable of influencing a depth that is strategically significant for Russia; US tactical aviation, operating from the alliance’s advanced airfields, can reach Moscow, Tula, Kursk, and other cities of the Central European part of Russia. Thus, it should be recognized that the strategic barrier between Russia and NATO no longer exists.

A complex international legal problem, aggravated in connection with the entry of the Baltic states into NATO, today is the problem of limiting conventional armed forces in Europe and the related issue of ratifying the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) was signed on November 19, 1990 by the heads of European states, as well as the United States and Canada. This treaty was intended to make it practically impossible to carry out large-scale offensive operations in the zone of the treaty, that is, in the European region from the Atlantic to the Urals. The CFE Treaty also provided for severe restrictions on heavy weapons in the following five categories:

• battle tanks,
• armored vehicles,
• artillery systems with a caliber over 100 millimeters,
• warplanes,
• attack helicopters.

However, the liquidation of the Warsaw Pact Organization (WTO) and the demise of the Soviet Union led to the fact that the issue of limiting the potentials of the two groups ceased to operate. In this regard, on November 19, 1999, the thirty heads of state and government of NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Istanbul an Agreement on the Adaptation of the CFE Treaty to Modern Conditions.

The essence of the adaptation of the treaty is that the very principle of arms limitation is changing. Instead of zonal cuts for conventional weapons, it is planned to introduce a grid of national-territorial levels for weapons. In accordance with the intention to adapt the treaty, each state should limit its weapons to the national level, which includes national weapons and weapons that can be deployed in this territory by foreign states.

However, to date, the adapted Treaty has not entered into force, since the NATO member states are artificially delaying the ratification of the CFE under the pretext of the Russian Federation not fulfilling its obligations regarding the terms and conditions for the presence of its military bases on the territory of Georgia, as well as the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Georgia. Republic of Moldova.

Under the adapted CFE Treaty, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can receive quotas for 500-600 tanks, 800 armored personnel carriers and 100-200 aircraft. Given their own capabilities, it is difficult to assume that the Baltic states are using these quotas. However, they can quite legally transfer them to other NATO countries, say, the United States. Just as they have now handed over their airspace for patrolling to combat aircraft of the Belgian, Danish and British Air Forces.

Following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty), which prohibited weapons systems capable of destroying nuclear-tipped strategic missiles, on the basis that if everyone is equally defenseless against nuclear weapons no one dares to use it.

Now the United States is creating the National Missile Defense Program (NMD), which provides for the development and production of systems and weapons that will guarantee the destruction of enemy intercontinental ballistic missiles and warheads attacking the United States in any part of their flight path. Thus, the United States intends to cover its territory from a possible missile attack.

At the same time, the Pentagon plans to deploy military installations of NMD in Europe. The United Kingdom already has an early warning radar at Philingdays, which is part of the US NMD system. The Pentagon allocated £450 million for its modernization. In addition, according to the British newspaper The Independent on October 17, 2004, the British Prime Minister gave his consent to the US President to deploy American missile defense interceptors in North Yorkshire. In this regard, the Russian Foreign Ministry made an official statement. “The American side assures us that the US missile defense being created, together with its foreign bases, is not directed against Russia. However, we still have not received an answer to our question of how such "non-directionality" will be ensured and guaranteed. As long as there is no such response, the Russian side cannot but take into account the possible threat to Russia's security,” the said document says.

The US is trying to place elements of its NMD not only in Great Britain, but also in the countries of Eastern Europe. In Poland and Romania, the United States intends to deploy its silo-based interceptor missiles, and in the Czech Republic, the United States plans to deploy an early warning radar station. In this case, the Americans will be able to intercept Russian ballistic missiles launched from the European territory of Russia. It is obvious that the deployment of the American NMD system poses a serious threat to the interests of the military security of the Russian Federation.

From among the CIS states, in opposition to Russia, a buffer organization is being created - GUAM (this is an abbreviation - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova). This association was formed back in the 97th, but until recently it did not have clearly defined goals. In May 2006, at a meeting in Kyiv, the leaders of the GUAM countries signed a declaration on the reorganization of the association into an international structure called the Organization for Democracy and Development - GUAM. The charter of the organization and the communiqué of the summit were also signed. It follows from them that the main tasks of GUAM are to create a counterbalance to the CIS and provide an energy corridor from the Caspian deposits to Europe, bypassing the territory of Russia.

The leadership of the GUAM member states does not hide their military ambitions either. Thus, on September 25, 2006, a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the GUAM member states was held in New York, where the possibility of bringing civilian and police forces of GUAM into Abkhazia and South Ossetia to replace Russian peacekeepers was discussed. The heads of the foreign ministries of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova instructed the national coordinators of the organization to intensify the activities of GUAM in order to train peacekeepers and civilian police forces. Thus, the formation of a military peacekeeping contingent of GUAM, designed to oust Russian peacekeepers from "hot spots" in the CIS space, has actually begun. These actions can be considered as an application for the creation of a buffer military-political bloc of anti-Russian orientation.

Figure 2. GUAM is a buffer organization on the borders with Russia.

Thus, today the main threat from the West lies in the creation of a cordon of buffer states on the Russian borders, the expansion of the NATO bloc and the buildup of its combat power in the zone of vital national interests of Russia, as well as the deployment of the United States of national missile defense (NMD) on the territory of European states .

In the East (Asia-Pacific region), the military-political situation is characterized by increased rivalry for leadership in this region between the United States, Japan and China. This is primarily due to the growing role of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR) in the world economy and the concentration of huge human resources here (more than half of the entire population of the Earth). The geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region is currently developing not in favor of Russia, which has significantly weakened its position here. This is due to the unprecedented growth of China's economic power and its economic rapprochement with Japan, as well as the development of the military-political alliance between Japan and the United States, while Russia does not have enough forces and means not only to strengthen its influence in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, but even for the development and development of their own Far East and Primorye.

Japan, while remaining an ally of the United States, seeks to raise its regional and international status to the level of compliance with the development of its national economy, science and technology. Today, Japan is actively claiming the role of leader not only in East and Southeast Asia, but throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Japan is actively building up its military potential. In the 1990s, it spent about $ 200 billion on the program for building its armed forces, the annual increase in the country's military budget is 6–7%, and it ranks third in the world in terms of military spending. At present, the Japan Self-Defense Forces number more than 250 thousand people, 13 combined arms divisions, about 1200 tanks, over 400 combat aircraft and about 150 warships, while they have the ability to quickly deploy and are able to solve operational and strategic tasks outside their territory as independently and in coalition with allies. Japan is able to produce nuclear weapons, its scientists and engineers have already mastered nuclear technology, and there are plutonium reserves in the country, sufficient to create 20 atomic bombs.

Threats to the military security of the Russian Federation are also created by the absence of a Russian-Japanese peace treaty, due to the fact that Japan has territorial claims against the Russian Federation (the islands of the Lesser Kuril Ridge, Iturup, Kunashir). At the same time, in the short term, the military-political leadership of Japan does not intend to use military force against Russia to resolve the existing contradictions.

The United States of America, while maintaining its military-strategic superiority in the region, is striving to prevent the strengthening of Russian influence in the Asia-Pacific region. In view of the significant remoteness of the US territory from the Asian countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has chosen as the optimal strategy for its military presence in the region through the creation of many military bases and the “chaotic distribution” of its nuclear power and forward-based forces on them. In Japan and South Korea alone, the United States has 89,000 troops, over 270 combat aircraft, and 27 warships from the 7th Fleet of the US Navy. In the Pacific basin, the main destabilizing factor is the obvious superiority (two to three times) of the naval forces of the United States and Japan over the forces of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy.

Today, the People's Republic of China (PRC) is in the stage of dynamic development and, in fact, is already a nuclear power with a sufficiently powerful military and economic potential and unlimited human resources. The military power potential of the PRC, although inferior to the Russian one in strategic weapons, is still quite impressive. The PRC has the largest armed forces in the world, the most numerous ground forces on the planet, and a relatively modern navy and air force. Since 1964, China has also possessed nuclear weapons. The Chinese nuclear arsenal has 282 strategic and 120 tactical nuclear warheads.

Today, an exceptionally favorable geopolitical situation is developing for China: the center of world politics and economics is gradually shifting from the Mediterranean (Europe) and the Atlantic (USA) to the Asia-Pacific region, which may become dominant this century, and the Chinese will have the opportunity to realize their long-standing geopolitical ideals about world leadership of the "Middle Empire". Today, more than 1.2 billion people live on Chinese territory, which is almost a quarter of the world's population. The presence of a sparsely populated region (the Far East), the Russian population of which is only 6 million people, is a favorable condition for China to solve its historically established demographic, territorial and economic problems. The process of settlement by the Chinese of these territories is already little controlled and is becoming massive. According to expert estimates, several million Chinese now live in Siberia and the Russian Far East. Taking into account these circumstances, it is impossible to prevent the emergence of conflict situations in this region.

It must be recognized that at present, the guarantor of minimizing possible military threats in the Asia-Pacific region should be active cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China within the framework of the Shanghai Agreement on confidence-building in the military field in the border area, signed in 1996 by the Russian Federation, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

On the basis of the "Shanghai Five" on June 15, 2001, a regional interstate association was created - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), whose members became all these states, as well as Uzbekistan. As noted in the Declaration on the Establishment of the SCO, this regional organization was created with the aim of strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good neighborliness between member states, strengthening multifaceted cooperation in maintaining and strengthening peace, security and stability in the region, and jointly countering new challenges and threats.

Along with cooperation in the military sphere and the achievement of mutual agreement on border issues, one of the priority areas for interaction between the SCO states was the joint counteraction to challenges and threats to the security of the member states. In a statement by the SCO foreign ministers dated September 11, 2002, the SCO member states emphasized that they consider it necessary to create a global system to counter new threats and challenges, which would include appropriate multilateral mechanisms for interaction, including early warning and prevention of emerging threats, decisive and adequate response to their manifestations. The signing by the SCO member states of the Shanghai Convention to Combat Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism became the legal foundation for joint activities in the fight against threats to national security.

Thus, an analysis of the current position of Russia in the east shows that in unfavorable internal and external conditions, our country can transform from an active subject of world politics in the Asia-Pacific region into a passive object of threats of foreign economic and demographic expansion, territorial claims and military-political pressure from Japan and the United States, and possibly China. In this regard, the further development of cooperation between the SCO member states should become a deterrent to the establishment of US-Japanese hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region.

In the South, the military-political situation remains difficult. Today, military and political tensions remain near the southern borders of Russia, it is here that the most dangerous ethno-confessional armed conflicts take place, directly affecting the interests of the Russian Federation. It is from the south that the threat of the spread of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism to the territory of the Russian Federation emanates.

Possible threats from the South are formed in two regions: in the Caucasus and in Central Asia. Currently, the Caucasus is one of the three most ethno-politically tense regions of Eurasia (the other two are the Balkans and Central Asia).
Today, the Caucasus is divided by the state border of Russia into the Russian North Caucasus and foreign Transcaucasia. In the North Caucasus, a clear threat to the military security of Russia is the actions of the remnants of illegal armed groups and terrorist groups in the Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Dagestan and North Ossetia.

In the Transcaucasus, the interests of Russia's military security affect the aspirations of the current military-political leadership of Georgia to establish control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are pursuing a policy independent of Tbilisi and clearly gravitating towards the Russian Federation. The forceful capture of these regions is hindered by Russian peacekeepers who are here under a CIS mandate.

Figure 3 Zones of instability in the South

Pursuing an openly anti-Russian policy, the Georgian leadership in harsh forms is trying to squeeze out Russian military personnel from Georgia. For these purposes, clearly provocative methods are used, including arrests and beatings of Russian servicemen. It should be recognized that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia is in fact a foregone conclusion. All military equipment has already been removed from the Russian military base in Akhalkalaki, and most of it from Batumi.

The leadership of Georgia is forcing the country's entry into the NATO bloc. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has already officially proposed to the Georgian leadership to switch to an "intensive dialogue" program, which in fact means an accelerated admission of Georgia to the North Atlantic Alliance. In this regard, Georgian President M. Saakashvili said that his country has a real chance in 2008 to become a full member of NATO.

Today there is an active militarization of Georgia. The NATO countries recently admitted to this bloc are actively re-arming Georgia. Thus, Lithuania officially handed over to Georgia "excessive" weapons (small arms and ammunition), which it had previously received from Poland. In addition, some states of Eastern Europe unofficially transfer equipment and weapons to Georgia that were supplied by the USSR with an end-user certificate, which is a clear violation of generally accepted rules for the arms trade.

The Georgian leadership is sparing no effort and money to build the national armed forces, which number about 25,000 servicemen. All in all, Georgia's power structures number 30,000 servicemen. In 2006 alone, Georgia's military budget increased fivefold.

Georgia is actively building new military bases that meet the requirements of NATO standards. One such base for 3,000 servicemen is being built in Western Georgia, in the city of Senaki, which is 55 kilometers from the Gali region of Abkhazia. Another new military base is being built in the city of Gori, 30 kilometers from the border with South Ossetia. Thus, the directions and goals of Georgia's military preparations are obvious.

If Georgia decides to resolve the Georgian-Abkhaz and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts with the use of military force, then Russia will need to protect its citizens living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and they make up the majority of the population of these republics. If Georgia joins NATO, there is a danger that the forces of the North Atlantic Alliance will be drawn into the Transcaucasian conflicts.

Thus, at present there is a clear threat that Georgia will unleash military conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which may lead to a deep involvement in the conflict situation of the Russian Federation, as well as NATO states.

Today, it is also impossible not to take into account the existing ethno-confessional contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which in the past were resolved through military violence. The decline in Russia's role in this region is due to the loss of our strategic space in the Caspian area. Taking into account the possibility of Azerbaijan's involvement in the process of NATO expansion to the east, Russia may face the fact of forming a strategic corridor for direct access of Western countries to the Caspian Sea region and further to Central Asia.

In this regard, Russia needs to pursue a rational foreign policy in the Transcaucasus, based on the comprehensive expansion of cooperation with all countries of the region. It also seems necessary to prioritize the development of the grouping of Russian troops in the South-Western strategic direction.

Ethnopolitical tensions in the Caucasus attract the attention of Turkey, which claims to be a regional power in the entire geopolitical space in the triangle between the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas. Turkey's exceptionally favorable geopolitical location (at the junction of the main existing and planned transport arteries) gives it certain opportunities to put pressure on exporters and importers of energy resources, including Russia. Turkey openly supports Muslim movements in Transcaucasia and the North Caucasus, increases its military presence near the borders of the Caucasus region, and seeks to turn the Black Sea into its sphere of influence.

In the Central Asian region, possible military threats to Russia come from attempts by a number of Islamic states (Iran, Pakistan, etc.) to spread Islamic fundamentalism to the territory of the Central Asian countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, removing them from integration with Russia, and asserting their influence here.

A real threat of drug trafficking also comes from the Central Asian region today. They are produced in significant volumes in Afghanistan, and then spread through Central Asia all over the world, including to the territory of Russia. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan is the world's largest producer and exporter of opium. Since 1992, Russian border guards have already seized over 29 tons of narcotic drugs and prevented more than 1,500 attempts of armed breakthroughs across the border. In this regard, one of the main tasks of the 4th military base of Russian troops in Tajikistan (201st motorized rifle division) is to cover the border outposts on the Tajik-Afghan border.

The Russian Federation today cannot but be concerned about the problem of building up the military presence of the United States and NATO in the states of Central Asia. Under the pretext of conducting an anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan, air bases of NATO states were deployed in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

The US and NATO are not going to leave this strategically important region at all and continue to build up their military presence in Central Asia.

The military grouping of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan (ISAF) is constantly expanding. Initially, its strength was 6,500 people, then it was increased to 9,000 military personnel. In accordance with the new operational plan, which entered into force on May 4, 2006, the number of ISAF troops has been increased to 18,500. In addition to the northern and western territories of the country, ISAF's presence now extends to six southern provinces. 37 countries are already participating in the ISAF operation.

In Kyrgyzstan, on the territory of the international airport "Manas" near Bishkek, the American military base "Gansi" is deployed, which houses military transport aircraft and refueling aircraft, as well as other military equipment. The American military contingent in Kyrgyzstan has over a thousand American servicemen. In the future, it is planned to deploy fighter aircraft (F-15 and F-18 multipurpose fighters) at the Gansi air base. A natural question arises: since the remnants of the armed groups of the Afghan opposition hiding in the mountains do not have aviation, then for what purpose and against which enemy is it supposed to use fighter aircraft here?

The US military air base "Khanabad" (Kashkadarya region in the south-west of the republic), which is leased by the United States for a period of at least 20 years, is also deployed in Uzbekistan. Aviation equipment and more than 1,500 American soldiers are stationed here. In addition, the US Air Force uses an auxiliary airfield in the Uzbek settlement of Kokayty. Also in the Uzbek city of Termez (bordering with Afghanistan), another air base is deployed, on which the German military contingent is located.

On the territory of Tajikistan (in Dushanbe) there is also a NATO air base. The French military contingent of over 120 military personnel is stationed here and military transport aircraft of the French Air Force are deployed.

Further advancement of US and NATO interests in the countries of Central Asia is connected not only with their desire to control unstable Afghanistan and provide Western business with access to fuel, energy and other resources of Central Asia. It is clear that the military presence of the US and NATO near the southern borders of Russia contributes to the reduction of Russian influence in Central Asia, and also weakens the military security of the Russian Federation.

Having considered the situation in the south, we can conclude that the escalation of protracted armed conflicts along the perimeter of the southern Russian borders, Russia's deep involvement in most of them and the spread of ethno-confessional conflicts to the southern regions of our state testify to the reality of these threats.

In the North, the military-political situation is more stable; the danger of a military confrontation in this region is currently minimal. At the same time, the possibility of threats to Russia's security cannot be ruled out in this region. This is due to the expansion of NATO's military presence in Norway, as well as the increasing involvement of Sweden and Finland in the implementation of the Alliance's Partnership for Peace program.

It should be noted that all three of Russia's northern neighbors (Norway, Finland and Sweden) have purely defensive military doctrines and in themselves pose practically no threat to Russian security. However, Russia cannot but be disturbed by NATO's attempts to use these states in its geostrategic plans, which infringe on Russia's national interests in the North. If Sweden and Finland, which adhere to a policy of neutrality, but still have a fairly powerful and modern army and navy, the NATO strategy assigns the role of a buffer covering the states of the bloc in the North European theater of operations, then Norway, which is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, is considered in as a forward foothold that provides the combined armed forces of NATO with favorable conditions for the advance preparation and conduct of large-scale operations in the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

Thus, Norway abandoned unilateral restrictions on military exercises involving foreign troops east of the 24th meridian in the Finnmark region. As a result, under the guise of activities within the framework of the Partnership for Peace program, NATO maneuvers have been regularly carried out in recent years directly near the border of the Russian Federation.

Norway is a NATO outpost in the North, it is here that the NATO Joint Training Center in Norway is located, created on the basis of the former NATO Allied Forces Sub-Regional Command North, which was responsible for the alliance's military operations in Northern Europe. Russia is also justifiably concerned about the deployment in Spitsbergen of stations for monitoring the space situation and intercepting information from artificial Earth satellites, as well as the operational use of a multifunctional radar station moved from the United States to the Norwegian village of Varde, which can also be used to detect and reconnaissance launches of Russian ground-based ballistic missiles. and sea based.

The uniqueness of the geostrategic position of Norway is characterized by the presence of a skerry fairway of the coast, which ensures the covert and safe deployment of submarines and warships in the immediate vicinity of the borders of Russia, which significantly devalues ​​the geostrategic advantage of basing the forces of the Russian Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula, including nuclear submarines.

Despite the assurances of the leaders of the NATO states in their friendly relations with Russia, today in the waters of the Barents Sea there is an increase in the presence of ships and submarines of a number of countries of the NATO bloc (USA, Norway, Great Britain and France), the facts of their violation of the territorial waters of Russia have become more frequent, one and a half times increased intensity of foreign intelligence activities in the region.

The official leadership of Finland traditionally declares its intention to maintain a course of neutrality, but in the actions of the Finnish leadership there is a clear line towards the development of cooperation with NATO. So, since 1992, Finland has been an observer of the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC), in 1994 it joined the NATO Partnership for Peace program, and also became a member of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC). Having completely abandoned the purchase of Soviet and Russian-made weapons, Finland has made a complete transition to NATO-standard weapons. According to expert estimates, at present, the Finnish armed forces, according to basic standards, have become quite compatible with the armed forces of NATO states. According to the statements of the Finnish military command, by 2008 the training of Finnish military units, which can be involved in joint NATO operations, will be completed.

Today, Russia cannot but be concerned about the unresolved territorial problems with Finland (the question of its former part - Karelia) and with Norway (the dispute over the borders between economic zones in the Barents Sea). The infringement of the interests of Russia is also the desire of such maritime states as the USA, Norway, Japan and Canada to achieve the transformation of the Northern Sea Route from the Russian highway into the international one, which will negatively affect the level of Russian security in the northern region of Eurasia.

At present, due to the restriction of Russia's access to the Black Sea and the Baltic, the geostrategic role of the North, the only open outlet to the Atlantic in the European part of Russia, is increasing. Thus, the North of Europe is a strategically important zone for the Russian Federation in terms of ensuring the national security of the country.

It is obvious that the threat of direct military expansion from the north to Russian borders is unlikely today, but in the event of an escalation of the military-political confrontation between Russia and the states of the North Atlantic Alliance, the possibility of a naval blockade of Russia in the north and exerting force on it cannot be completely ruled out.

Concluding the analysis of possible external threats to the military security of the Russian Federation, let us turn to the conclusions and assessments made by officials from among the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation.

The leading trend in the development of the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century. can be called globalization, i.e. the process of transforming the world economy into a single market for goods, services, capital, labor and knowledge. Globalization is accompanied by internationalization, i.e. the process of strengthening the participation of the country in the world economy. It should be noted that globalization has both positive and negative consequences.

The main consequence of globalization is that it leads to increased dependence of the world economy on this economy. The process of globalization has a destabilizing effect on the social, political, cultural and institutional aspects of the life of national societies. It should also be noted that this trend began to develop not in the 21st century, but much earlier, and at the moment it has acquired a worldwide scale, has reached its peak.

Of course, there are positive aspects of globalization, but they are not so many. For example, it is the ability of consumers of a particular country to use goods and services that are not produced in their country.

From globalization flows integration and regionalization. These processes are closely interconnected and are also trends in the development of the world economy in the modern world. In our opinion, regionalization and integration have a positive impact on the economies of countries. The proof of this is that states help each other in various situations, and, as a consequence, the world economy can develop at a stable growth rate. The main engine of globalization in the world and integration in certain regions are transnational corporations, i.e. business structures that include parent companies and their foreign affiliates. Thus, another trend in the development of the modern world economy is transnationalization.

It is impossible not to say about the liberalization of the world economy. This is a negative trend, as it destabilizes the economy. A vivid example of this is Russia and the reforms carried out in it in the 90s. 20th century. We see that the economy of our country is still in a crisis. And this is not the only example. If a liberal policy is pursued, then this should be done very competently and carefully. A positive feature of liberalization is that it develops post-industrialization, which is one of the most important features of the world economy of the 21st century.

The post-industrial society has such features as the predominance of services in production and consumption, a high level of education, a new attitude to work, increased attention to the environment, the humanization of the economy, and the informatization of society. Post-industrialization leads to profound changes in the world economy. The abundance and availability of economic information, combined with the cheapening of communications and transport, has become a powerful stimulus for the international movement of capital. Undoubtedly, this is a positive trend, especially since it is inherent in developed countries and the most developed of the group of developing countries.

Thus, the world economy has a very complex structure and a lot of different trends. In most cases, the development of the world economy is characterized by how developed the leading world powers are. Consequently, the most important trends in the development of the world economy are those that are inherent in the developed capitalist countries.

It can be concluded that the development of the world economy depends on the degree of development, the rate of economic growth of developed countries. Unfortunately, the world economy and, in particular, individual countries do not have time to adapt to new trends, and the result is a crisis that can become not only protracted for countries, but also completely destructive for the world economy.

"New Challenges and Trends in the Development of the World in the 21st Century"

Humanity has entered the third millennium. The milestone time gives rise to comprehension of past events, forecasting the future, analysis and identification of trends and prospects. The subject of this book is the coming dangers and the foundations for the safe existence of human society in the near future. What does the beginning of the 21st century bring to humanity - prosperity, well-being, a more comfortable and peaceful life, or will it be a time of new challenges and threats, new crises and catastrophes, suffering and loss? Let's try to outline the main trends in world development at the beginning of the new millennium.

1) In the sphere of “mental” globalization, a number of integration processes should be expected. A single religion, the need for which the brightest minds of mankind have always spoken about, will appear in its original form no earlier than in the second half of the 21st century. Up to this point, the contradictions between the Catholic, Orthodox and Protestant branches of Christianity will be eliminated. The need to unite the economic efforts of "Christian" countries and peoples in the face of growing numbers and activity of the "non-Christian" population will become the actual catalyst for the integration of church institutions. A similar rapprochement of positions within Islam should also be expected. Inter-confessional integration will take place somewhat more slowly, and in this matter much will depend on the position of the elite implementing the globalization strategy. The factors of such integration can be the economic interests of church organizations and pressure from the political leadership of the leading countries of the world. In addition, the leaders of "traditional" religious organizations have concerns about the unprecedented increase in the number of people interested in "new" religions. While traditionalists are figuring out which of the religions is the “main”, numerous groups and sects are simply poaching their flock from them.

In the field of cultural globalization, integration processes are less inert, and therefore we can expect the emergence of a global superculture in the next 10-15 years. The outlines of such a superculture can already be seen today - this is a synthesis of traditional cultural traditions (classical European; mass North American; Latin American; Far Eastern; Muslim and Indian) in combination with new forms (network culture; cyber culture). Naturally, within the framework of a single superculture, each region will have certain preferences.

2) Territorial globalization will develop in stages: a) strengthening of states of the traditional type in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the countries of the former USSR; b) building unions and associations of states in Europe, North America, the Arab world; c) the emergence of continental territorial structures - North American, South American, European, Far Eastern (Pacific) and Islamic; d) consolidation of continental territorial structures up to 3 (American, European-Islamic and Far Eastern) or even 2 (Atlantic and Pacific). The formation of a single civilization, in which there would be no division into nation-states or other territorial entities, is a matter of a more distant future. It seems that such a situation will become possible only at the stage when ethnic and cultural differences will be sufficiently erased, and this process will require at least 200-250 years.

Against this background, the process of displacement of traditional states by supercorporations will develop. We should expect the emergence in the next 10-15 years of private companies with the characteristics of sovereign states: extraterritoriality; having their own legitimate armed forces; participation in international organizations providing membership only for sovereign entities. In parallel with this, state formations of the traditional type will also develop. Thus, the processes of territorial globalization, globalization of economic forms and urbanization are already merging into a single process of management globalization.

The simultaneous development of both traditional-type states and extraterritorial supercorporations will proceed for some time without power conflicts between them. Traditional statehood will be further developed in those regions where private business is not sufficiently developed to form within itself an extraterritorial entity of a non-state type (supercorporation) - in Latin America, Southeast and Central Asia, and Africa. In post-industrial regions (North America and Europe), the processes of interaction between the state and supercorporations will take place on the basis of existing legal mechanisms. An example is the failed attempt to form the first ever global supercorporation based on Microsoft. At the current stage, the American state has managed to suspend the process of sovereignization of a private corporation, but this does not guarantee against the recurrence of such situations in the future.

3) Economic globalization by now has the most pronounced features, which will mostly remain in the future: a) the leading role of large companies (in the future - supercorporations); b) the functioning of global "virtual" markets - financial, currency, stock - in order to finance the consumption of the "golden billion" (from 2020-2025 - "golden" 2-3 billion); c) change in the structure of traffic flows as a result of the functioning of global information networks; d) creation and operation of global trade and economic associations and unions; e) transfer of all national and international financial and currency transactions to the global network; f) the transfer of retail banking, insurance and trade operations to the global network;

4) Information and communication globalization has already become the actual catalyst for many unifying processes of modern history. It is to be expected that this role will be retained in the future planetary arrangement. The main directions of information and communication globalization should be considered: the creation of global communication systems in terms of coverage based on space complexes; predominant development of dual-purpose space systems; development of personal communication systems and global positioning; creation of global systems for managing business, production processes and households based on information and communication systems; computerization and robotization of an increasing number of human life processes.

5) Ethnic globalization will be characterized by the following main features:

a) Continued growth of the total population of the planet. At the same time, the processes of globalization of management by 2020 - 2025 will already take place. they will create a situation where the production of basic types of goods and services will be able to satisfy not the “golden billion” of the Club of Rome, but a much larger number of people (from 2 to 3 billion);

b) Gradual ethnic assimilation, when ethnic groups will first “mix” within one territorial or confessional group, and then an intergroup process will begin. It seems that the first candidates for ethnic assimilation will be: peoples who profess Islam; Europeans; Hispanics. The logical conclusion of all assimilation processes in the ethnic sphere should be the emergence within 200-250 years of a single "planetary" ethnos;

c) Attempts to change a person as a biological species on the basis of genetic and other biotechnologies. The long-standing desire of certain circles to grow a new type of person in a test tube is already receiving material opportunities today. One can only guess where this will lead.

In my opinion, the challenges of the 21st century are caused by global problems, so I will consider them.

43. The role of European penetration into Eastern societies (XVIII-XIX centuries) for their development in the second half of the XX century.

44. Post-war transformation of China and India

45. Middle East problem

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Description of the presentation Social studies, grade 10. Threats and challenges of the XXI century on slides

1. Nuclear threat. 2. International security and sovereignty. 3. Colonization to control natural resources. 4. Technogenic and economic threats. 5. The threat to the environment. 6. New diseases and epidemics. 7. Repetition (schemes). 8. Homework. Lesson plan

1. Nuclear threat. Build-up of nuclear potential by some countries. Despite the collapse of the USSR and the military weakening of Russia in the 90s. The United States has been building up its nuclear potential all these years. Global military spending is about $1 trillion. $ per year, of which more than half - $ 600 billion - falls on the United States (for comparison, Russia's military budget in 2009 was $ 50 billion). The rise in arms spending by the world's poorest countries is alarming: Congo, Rwanda, Sudan, Botswana, Uganda doubled their military budget from 1985 to 2000. The emergence of new global contradictions between nuclear countries (confrontation between the US and the Islamic world; competition between the US and China for global leadership; worsening relations between Russia and NATO, NATO's advance to the east, Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia).

The threat of a local nuclear conflict that could have global consequences. Today, the number of countries with nuclear weapons is constantly increasing. The constant conflicts between India and Pakistan pose a threat of the use of nuclear weapons by these states. Israel, which possesses nuclear weapons, is quite capable of using them in one of the next conflicts with its Arab neighbors. There is evidence that nuclear military programs are being conducted in Iran and North Korea. Absence of a system of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed in 1967 by the first nuclear powers - the USA, the USSR and Great Britain - turned out to be ineffective. By creating a missile defense system (anti-missile defense), the United States, in fact, relieves itself of responsibility for the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The entire system of international law is being destroyed: some countries are trying to replace international institutions, arrogating to themselves the right to independently determine where external intervention is necessary to maintain international security. The UN is in a deep crisis, unable to help resolve serious conflicts. Under these conditions, the United States and a number of Western European countries began to independently decide where their right to violate national sovereignty could be used (Yugoslavia, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq). The next threat lies in the same plane. 2. International security and sovereignty.

Humanity will live under the constant threat of shortage of energy resources (oil, gas) and fresh water. These are the strategic resources of modern society. That is why the West raises the issue of unfair (in their opinion) distribution of these resources (they say that democratic countries got few resources, and the main hydrocarbon deposits ended up in the hands of supposedly undemocratic regimes). To ensure a "fair" distribution of resources, it is necessary to violate the sovereignty of a number of countries over their minerals. Russia is lucky with natural resources: its share in the world's oil reserves is 10-12%, gas - 32%, iron - 30%, forests - 22%, fresh water - 20%. 3. Colonization to control resources.

Accidents at nuclear and hydroelectric power plants, explosions at chemical plants. Human dependence on machines and technologies (electricity failures can paralyze the lives of tens of millions of people; a modern person can no longer imagine life without a computer, TV, mobile phone, Internet, international payment systems, failures in which can lead to a global electronic catastrophe); Problems in the economies of large countries can cause a global economic crisis (the collapse of the US dollar will instantly lead to the financial collapse of many countries where the dollar plays the role of a reserve currency; a failure in the gas supply system from Russia will bring down the European economy, etc.). 4. Technogenic and economic threats.

We spoke about the ecological crisis within the framework of the topic “Global problems”. Let us dwell on two more aspects of this problem. The governments of some countries, in the interests of rapid economic growth, are sacrificing the environment. For example, China, having become the "World Factory", has been impressing the whole world for several years now with its high rates of economic growth; but the price for this is a sharp deterioration in the environment. Attempts to fight collectively with environmental problems have not yet been successful. The Kyoto Protocol (limiting emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere), to which many countries, including Russia, have joined, is not fully operational due to the US refusal to enter this system. 5. The threat to the environment. smoke over shanghai

The deterioration of the environment, the weakening of people's immunity, experiments in genetics create a threat of new viruses and diseases. Mankind has already faced diseases that have spread throughout the world in recent years: HIV, SARS (SARS), "bird flu" (H 5 N 1), "swine flu" (H 1 N 1), etc. These viruses have claimed lives very many people, but have not yet caused pandemics, i.e. such a spread of the disease when millions of people immediately find themselves in the focus of the lesion. But this can happen at any moment. Moreover, unlike epidemics of plague, smallpox or cholera, the spread of the disease cannot be localized in several countries. In a few hours, the virus will be transported overseas by plane. It is very difficult to fight viruses, because they constantly mutate. 5. New diseases and epidemics.

Recap: Threats and Challenges of the 21st Century Nuclear threat Destruction of the system of international law Colonization to control natural resources. Build-up of nuclear potential by some countries Threat of a local nuclear conflict that could have global consequences. The emergence of new global contradictions between nuclear countries Accidents at nuclear and hydroelectric power plants, explosions at chemical plants Dependence of man on machines and technologies Problems in the economy of large countries can cause a worldwide economic crisis Lack of a system for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons Technogenic and economic threats Threat to the environment New diseases and epidemics and others

9.1. New Challenges for Global Civilization in the 21st Century

The coming century has given birth new, unexpected threats and calls for global civilization. This is depopulation; energy crisis and ecological catastrophe; the deepening of the technological and ecological gap between civilizations and countries as a result of the introduction of the neoliberal model of globalization; moral and cultural degradation of people; the elimination of civilizational diversity or a large-scale clash of civilizations, which may end in the death of mankind, the actual end of history. The generations of the 21st century will have to find answers to these global challenges. Let's consider the essence of these problems and their possible solutions.

1. Depopulation. The threat to humanity in the second half of the 20th century was a population explosion: in just half a century, the population of the planet increased by 2.4 times, which caused overpopulation and a sharp increase in the burden on the environment in many countries, especially developing ones. In the first half of the 21st century, overpopulation will no longer pose such a danger to earthlings: the world's population will grow by 1.5 times by 2050 (up to 9.1 billion people), according to the average version of the UN forecast by 2050. The threat of overpopulation will remain only for African, Indian, Muslim and Latin American civilizations, although even there the rate of population growth will slow down. But a new, more terrible threat arose on the horizon, which neither Malthus nor his numerous followers foresaw: you are the call of depopulation. By the middle of the century, according to the average version of the UN forecast, it will cover 62 countries, including the states of Western European, Japanese, Eastern European, Eurasian, and then Chinese civilizations. If this trend continues, then by the end of the 21st century, the growth of the world's population will stop, and by the middle of the 22nd century, its population will return to the current level of 6 billion people. In a more distant perspective, this may end in the degeneration and extinction of mankind - demographic catastrophe, no less terrible than a global ecological catastrophe.

But the matter is not only in quantity, but also in the quality of the population of the planet. With a reduction in the birth rate and an increase in the average life expectancy, the aging of the population will inevitably occur. The number of elderly people who require the support of society will increase, and the number of able-bodied and innovatively active citizens will decrease. The civilizational

and racial composition of the population: the share of civilizations in Asia, Africa, Latin America will increase significantly, the share of Europe and North America, especially the white race, will decrease. Migration flows will intensify from the east and south to the north and west, most local civilizations will acquire a mixed character, which will intensify intercivilizational and intracivilizational contradictions.

The global civilization can respond to this population challenge (which it has previously faced in the phases behind the downturn of civilizations) by being able to develop and consistently implement active differentiated demographic policy, the foundations of which will be birth control in overpopulated civilizations and its encouragement in countries

and civilizations affected by depopulation. a significant role

in Religions and social morality, the global civil society movement can play a role in overcoming depopulation

in support for the instinct of procreation, responsibility for future generations. In this case, it is possible to reverse the dangerous trend of depopulation, to maintain, by the end of the 21st century and in the future, moderate growth rates in the number and innovative activity of earthlings.

2. The energy crisis and the deterioration of the Earth's climate.This challenge is more and more clearly visible at the beginning of the 21st century. Energy consumption is steadily increasing, but most of it is still produced from fossil fuels. Its reserves are rapidly depleted, it is rapidly becoming more expensive and heavily polluting the environment, causing adverse climate change. The number of natural and ecological disasters is growing. Mankind has already reached a new energy and ecological threshold, and not a single civilization, not a single country will remain aloof from these changes. The energy and environmental imperative is becoming a vital problem for the survival of global civilization.

Sustainable Development Strategy, adopted at Rio de Ja Neuro in 1992 and confirmed at Johannesburg in 2002,

PART THREE The Future of Civilizations

is no longer enough to adequately respond to this challenge. It will be necessary to develop a long-term - at least until the middle of the century - global energy and environmental strategy, focused on replacing most fossil fuels with renewable energy sources (including hydrogen and fuel cells); to a sharp reduction in the thermal pollution of the planet; to create a global system of eco-monitoring, forecasting natural and environmental disasters. This will make it possible to radically change the structure of the world energy balance by the end of the century. One of the scenarios for such a change was proposed to the heads of the leading countries of the world by the International Energy Agency at the summit in Johannesburg.

in 2002. The national hydrogen programs adopted in the United States, the European Union, and Japan, and the ongoing work in this direction in Russia, China, and other countries show the reality of such a path. At the G8 summit in July 2006 in St. Petersburg concrete ways of international cooperation in this area, the contours of global energy security will be outlined.

3. The polarization of the technological and economic level of development of countries and civilizations, the widening of the gap between the rich minority and the poor majority of the planet's population.The industrial revolution, the colonial system, the widening gap in the level of technological development and incomes of countries and civilizations in XIX–XX centuries, unfolding

in At the beginning of the 21st century, the technological revolution associated with the development and spread of the sixth technological order, globalization focused on its own selfish use of TNCs - all this strengthens this polarization, splits the global civilization into two unequal parts: a few rich and many poor countries. On the one hand, the processes of globalization are pulling together the world economy and technology into an integral system; on the other hand, the gap between its individual parts, which seem to live in different eras, has reached a dangerous level, threatens to blow up this system and increases the threat of a global social conflict.

The examples of China, India, Brazil, and the newly industrialized states of Asia show that backwardness and poverty can be overcome within the life of one generation through an innovative breakthrough. But far from all countries such a breakthrough is possible.

Chapter 9. Global Civilization: New Challenges

The urgent task of the 21st century is the development of a global innovation, technological and economic strategy, which would allow pooling the resources of richer, technologically advanced states to support those who are now lagging behind. Developed countries, in their own interests, should help developing countries: to raise their economic and technological level to the global level; organize the transfer of advanced technologies to them and training of personnel; contribute to narrowing the excessive gap between the rich and the poor; create millions of jobs than reduce the desire of the local population to emigrate to rich countries.

4. The threat of a clash of civilizations and terrorism.In the first half of the 21st century, the threats of terrorism and the clash of civilizations come to the fore. Local conflicts and terrorist acts are increasingly becoming local

and point forms of the clash of civilizations. Attempts to liquidate them by violent methods, by creating anti-terrorist coalitions, by establishing the dictates of one superpower, do not yield significant results. Countries freeze in fear, people lose their sense of security. It is necessary to fight not with the consequences, but with the causes: with poverty, neglect of national and civilizational interests.The future belongs to the multipolar world, based on dialogue, cooperation

and partnership of equal, though technologically, economically and militarily unequal civilizations.

On November 9, 2001, the UN General Assembly adopted the Global Agenda for Dialogue among Civilizations. A new initiative in this area was the recent proposal by Spain and Turkey, supported by Russia and other countries, to create alliance of civilizations. In addition, at the IV International Kondratiev Conference in Moscow, the Concept for Ensuring Global Sustainable Development and Solving Global Problems on the Basis of Dialogue and Partnership of Civilizations was approved. Transition from confrontation of civilizations to their dialogue

and partnership is the most important condition for the preservation and development of global civilization; in a large-scale collision, her days may be numbered.

5. Degradation of the sociocultural system and a threat to civilizational diversity.The basis for the survival and progress of any system - both natural and social - is diversity.