The greenhouse effect is a phenomenon in which the solar heat entering the Earth is retained at the Earth's surface by the so-called greenhouse or greenhouse gases. These gases include carbon dioxide and methane known to us, the content of which in the atmosphere is steadily increasing. This is facilitated primarily not only by the burning of gigantic volumes of fuel, but also by a number of other factors, including deforestation, emissions of freons into the atmosphere, improper farming and overgrazing. Deforestation is especially dangerous and undesirable. It will lead not only to water and wind erosion, thereby violating the soil cover, but will also continue the non-renewable loss of the organic matter of the biosphere, the very one that absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It should also be noted that at least 25% of this gas contained in the atmosphere owes its presence to unjustified deforestation in the northern and southern belts. Even more troubling is the evidence that deforestation and fuel burning balance each other out in terms of carbon dioxide emissions. Forests also suffer due to their excessive use for recreation and recreation. Often, the stay of tourists in such cases leads to mechanical damage to the trees, their subsequent illness and death. Mass visitation contributes to the trampling of the soil and the lower tiers of vegetation.

The degeneration of forests with significant air pollution is very noticeable. Fly ash, coal and coke dust clog the pores of the leaves, reduce the access of light to plants and weaken the process of assimilation. Soil pollution with metal dust emissions, arsenic dust in combination with superphosphate or sulfuric acid poisons the root system of plants, delaying its growth. Toxic to plants and sulfurous anhydrite. Vegetation is completely destroyed under the influence of fumes and gases from copper smelters in their immediate vicinity. Damage to the vegetation cover, and primarily to forests, is caused by acid precipitation as a result of the spread of sulfur compounds over hundreds and thousands of kilometers. Acid precipitation has a regional destructive effect on forest soils. A noticeable decrease in forest biomass is apparently also due to fires. Of course, plants are characterized by the process of photosynthesis, during which plants absorb carbon dioxide, which serves as their biomass, but recently the level of pollution has increased so much that plants can no longer cope with it. According to scientists, for a year, all land vegetation captures 20-30 billion tons of C from the atmosphere in the form of its dioxide, and the Amazonia alone absorbs up to 6 billion tons of harmful atmospheric impurities. Algae play an important role in the assimilation of carbon dioxide.

Another problem of today's dynamically developing world is the improper management of agriculture, which in some cases uses the slash-and-burn system that has not yet been eliminated in the equatorial regions and overgrazing of livestock, which leads to the same soil compaction. The problem of fuel combustion and the emission of hazardous industrial gases such as freons is also traditional.

History of greenhouse effect research

An interesting point of view was put forward by the Soviet climatologist N. I. Budyko in 1962. According to his calculations, an increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO 2 in 2000 to 380 parts per million is predicted, in 2025 - up to 520 and in 2050. - up to 750. The average annual surface global air temperature will increase, in his opinion, compared with its value at the beginning of the 20th century. by 0.9 degrees Celsius in 2000, by 1.8 degrees in 2025 and by 2.8 degrees in 2050. That is, we should not expect glaciation.

However, the study of the greenhouse effect began much earlier. The idea of ​​the mechanism of the greenhouse effect was first stated in 1827 by Joseph Fourier in the article "Note on the temperatures of the globe and other planets", in which he considered various mechanisms for the formation of the Earth's climate, while he considered as factors affecting the overall heat balance of the Earth ( heating by solar radiation, cooling due to radiation, internal heat of the Earth), as well as factors affecting heat transfer and temperatures of climatic zones (thermal conductivity, atmospheric and oceanic circulation).

When considering the influence of the atmosphere on the radiation balance, Fourier analyzed the experiment of M. de Saussure with a vessel blackened from the inside, covered with glass. De Saussure measured the temperature difference between the inside and outside of such a vessel exposed to direct sunlight. Fourier explained the increase in temperature inside such a "mini-greenhouse" compared to the external temperature by the action of two factors: blocking convective heat transfer (glass prevents the outflow of heated air from the inside and the inflow of cool air from the outside) and the different transparency of the glass in the visible and infrared ranges.

It is the latter factor that received the name of the greenhouse effect in later literature - by absorbing visible light, the surface heats up and emits thermal (infrared) rays; Since glass is transparent to visible light and almost opaque to thermal radiation, the accumulation of heat leads to such an increase in temperature at which the number of thermal rays passing through the glass is sufficient to establish thermal equilibrium.

Fourier postulated that the optical properties of the Earth's atmosphere are similar to the optical properties of glass, that is, its transparency in the infrared range is lower than the transparency in the optical range.

The conclusions of other geophysicists such as V. I. Lebedev are also known. He believes that an increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the air should not affect the earth's climate at all, while the productivity of terrestrial vegetation, and in particular cereals, will increase.

Physicist B. M. Smirnov also points to the possibility of increasing yields. In this regard, the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is considered by him as a factor favorable for mankind.

A different point of view is held by the so-called Club of Rome, founded in 1968 and the Americans who came to the conclusion that there is a gradual increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The opinions of a number of scientists about the cyclical nature of the climate are interesting, they say there are “warm” and “cold” centuries. You can’t say that they are wrong, because everyone is right in their own way. That is, in modern climatology, we clearly trace 3 directions:

optimistic

Pessimistic

Neutral

Causes of the greenhouse effect

In the modern balance of consumption of organic matter, 45% in our country belongs to natural gas in terms of the reserves of which we occupy 1st place in the world. Its advantage over other fossil fuels (fuel oil, coal, oil, etc.) is obvious: it has a lower carbon dioxide emission factor. In the global fuel balance, natural gas occupies a much more modest role - only 25%. At present, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 0.032% (in cities - 0.034%). Doctors say that for human health, the concentration of CO 2 in the air is harmless up to a level of 1%, i.e. humanity still has enough time to solve this problem. The data of the Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences are interesting. Thus, in the annual reports on the problems of atmospheric pollution, data are given that Russia exhales 3.12 billion tons of carbon dioxide, with 1.84 kg per person per day. The lion's share of carbon dioxide is emitted by the car. Added to this is 500 million tons from forest fires, but in general, in Russia, the level of pollution is an order of magnitude lower than in foreign countries such as the United States. But the problem is not tied to carbon dioxide alone. A number of other gases, such as methane, also belong to the gases that create the greenhouse effect, so it is very important to be able to determine its real losses during production, transportation through pipelines, distribution in large cities and towns, and use at thermal and power plants. It should be noted that its concentration remained unchanged for a long time, and from the 19th - 20th century it began to grow rapidly.

According to scientists, the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere annually decreases by more than 10 million tons. If it continues to be consumed in such amounts, then two-thirds of the total amount of free oxygen in the atmosphere and hydrosphere will be exhausted in a little over 100 thousand years. Accordingly, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will reach an excessive concentration.

According to studies by Russian, French, and American scientists, the total level of these gases has reached its historical maximum over the past 420 thousand years, overtaking even emissions of natural origin, which include volcanism, the release of hydrates from the bottom of the oceans. This is evidenced by data from the “cold pole” of the Russian Antarctic station Vostok, where polar explorers obtained a glacial core with a thickness of 2547 m, clearly demonstrating this or similar data from glacial Tibet, one of the highest places on our planet.

I must say that the natural greenhouse effect has always been characteristic of the Earth. It is with him that the age-old and not only the cyclical climate is connected. A number of scientists also suggest that they are caused by a change in the orbit of the Earth in relation to the Sun, but the inconsistency of this theory is obvious. Every year, our planet passes 2 points of perihelion and aphelion, leading to a change in the orbit of the planet. Nevertheless, there are no significant changes, except for the change of seasons, which are also characteristic of other terrestrial planets such as Mars. Large-scale changes are extremely rare, so there is no need to talk about the prevailing role of this factor.

Since the end of the 19th century, there has been a continuous dispute between ecocentrists, who believe that a failure in cyclicity occurred with the beginning of industrialization, and anthropocentrists, who believe that this process is influenced not only by human economic activity. Here, first of all, it is necessary to note the differentiation of emissions. After all, even the United States emits only 20% of the global level, and the emissions of the "third world" countries, to which Russia can be attributed after 1991, do not exceed 10%.

But even staying aside from this dispute, the evidence of climate warming becomes obvious. This is confirmed by a simple fact. Back in 1973, in the USSR, on November 7 - the day of the Great October Socialist Revolution, snowplows were walking in front of a column of demonstrators, but now there is no snow even in early December and even in January! Continuing this topic, scientists - geographers have already entered 1990, 1995, 1997 and the last 2 years in the "list of the warmest" over the past 600 years. And in general, the 20th century, despite a number of costs, is recognized as the “warmest” in 1200 years!

However, apparently this is how a person is arranged - the only creature on Earth in the literal sense of the word "sawing under a tree on which it sits." This I mean that the above information, discovered in America, makes you think at least, but at the same time, in the southeast of this country (Florida), swamps are being drained for the construction of prestigious houses and sugar cane plantations.

Possible consequences of the greenhouse effect

Nature never forgives mistakes. Climate change from the greenhouse effect can reach, and in some cases even exceed, the wildest expectations. In this context, the most dangerous and alarming is the melting of the polar caps of glaciers, as a result of a general increase in temperature by 5 degrees. As a result, chain reactions will begin, akin to a "domino effect". The melting of glaciers will lead, first of all, to an increase in the level of the World Ocean by 5-7 meters at best, and in the future even up to 60 meters. Entire countries will disappear, in particular low-lying ones such as Bangladesh, Denmark, the Netherlands, many port cities around the world such as Rotterdam, New York. All this will lead to the second "great migration of peoples" now from low-lying zones, in which, according to UN calculations, about a billion people live. Moreover, if the last 250-300 years the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 1 mm per year, then in the 20s of the twentieth century. its rise reached 1.4-1.5 mm per year, which is equivalent to an annual increase in oceanic water mass by 520-540 cubic meters. km. It is assumed that in the 20s of the XXI century. the rate of ocean level rise will exceed 0.5 cm per year. An increase in the mass of water will affect seismicity in different parts of the planet. By 2030, the Gulf Stream will disappear as a current. The consequence of this will be a decrease in the contrast between North and South.

Other existing ecosystems will also change. In particular, due to the change in the oblateness of the planet in Africa and Asia, crops will fall, the risk of catastrophic floods will increase in Europe, on the east coast of the United States, where, in addition, coastal erosion will occur. So in the UK there will be a series of catastrophically radical climate changes, including a multiple increase in the frequency of hot and dry summers, similar to the summer of 1995. Two such summers in a row will lead to drought, crop failure and famine. Aquitaine, Gascony, Normandy will disappear from the map of France. In place of Paris there will be an ocean. The sword of Damocles hangs over Venice. Severe droughts will cover Australia, the states of Texas, California, long-suffering Florida. Where rain was rare, it will become even rarer, in other wetter areas the amount of precipitation will increase even more. Average annual temperatures will increase in Algeria, the glaciers of the Caucasus and the Alps will disappear, and in the Himalayas and Andes they will decrease by 1/5, permafrost will disappear in Russia, calling into question the existence of northern cities. Siberia will change radically. The valleys of many rivers such as the Rio Grande, Magdalena, Amazon, Parana will disappear. The Panama Canal will lose its significance. So, if he agrees with the calculations of some scientists, then by the end of the first quarter of the XXI century. as a result of warming caused by an increase in the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere, the climate of Moscow will be similar to the modern climate of humid Transcaucasia.

There will be a restructuring of the entire atmospheric circulation system with corresponding changes in the thermal regime and humidification. The process of reshaping geographic zones will begin with their "shift" to higher latitudes by a distance of up to 15 degrees. At the same time, it must be taken into account that the atmosphere is a very dynamic system and can change extremely quickly; as for other components of the geosphere, they are more conservative. So, hundreds of years are needed for fundamental changes in the soil cover. It is possible that the most fertile soils, such as chernozems, will find themselves in the climatic conditions of deserts, and the already waterlogged and swampy taiga lands will receive even more precipitation. Desert areas can increase dramatically. Indeed, even at present, desertification processes are developing on 50-70 thousand square meters. km of cultivated area. Warming will lead to an increase in the number of cyclones, including hurricanes. It is also important that individual populations of animals can simply simply disappear from the face of the Earth, and a number of others will be catastrophically reduced. There is no doubt that the advancement of the tropical and subtropical zones will lead to the expansion of the habitats of pathogenic microbes and bacteria. Energy will also cost a lot. Everything was not so bad if it were not for the speed of everything that happens. A person does not have time to adapt to the changed conditions, because 50 centuries ago, when a similar phenomenon was observed, there were no factors accelerating it by tens or even hundreds of times. Particularly in this regard, developing countries that have just begun to create their economy suffer.

And on the other hand, warming promises us great opportunities that a person may not yet know about. Do not immediately refute these few statements. After all, a person, according to Vernadsky, "a great geological force" can reorganize his economy in a new way, for which, in turn, nature will provide great opportunities. So the forests will move further north and cover, in particular, the whole of Alaska, the opening of rivers in the Northern Hemisphere will occur 2 weeks earlier than in the same period of the 19th century. This will give a "new breath" to river navigation. Agronomists will no doubt not be against an increase in the growing season of plants in Europe by 1 month, there will be more wood. There are calculations by physicists, according to which, if the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is doubled, the air temperature will increase by no more than 0.04 degrees Celsius. Thus, an increase in the concentration of CO 2 on such a scale may more likely be beneficial for agricultural production, since should be accompanied by an increase in the intensity of photosynthesis (by 2-3%).

Migratory birds will arrive earlier and stay with us longer than now. Winters will become much warmer, and summers will lengthen and become hotter, the heating season will objectively be reduced in cities where warming will average about 3 degrees. In Russia, agriculture in the future may move north, as N. S. Khrushchev wanted, but the most important thing is that Russia will be able to raise these regions, destroyed by the liberal reforms of the 90s, by linking them into a single road network. on the construction of a fundamentally new railway from Yakutsk further to Anadyr and Alaska through the Bering Strait and the possible continuation of existing ones such as the Transpolar Highway.

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The essence of the greenhouse effect.

The air we breathe is a necessary condition for our life in many aspects. Without our atmosphere, the average temperature on Earth would be about -18 0 C instead of today's 15 0 C. All the sunlight that hits the Earth (about 180 W/m2) causes the Earth to emit infrared waves like a giant radiator. The reflected heat would simply return unhindered into space.

Due to the atmosphere, however, only a portion of this heat is directly returned to space. The rest is trapped in the lower atmosphere, which contains a number of gases - water vapor, CO 2 , methane and others - that collect outgoing infrared radiation. As soon as these gases are heated, some of the heat accumulated by them again enters the earth's surface. In general, this process is called the greenhouse effect, the main cause of which is the excess content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more heat reflected by the earth's surface will be retained. Since greenhouse gases do not prevent the entry of solar energy, the temperature at the earth's surface will increase.

As the temperature rises, the evaporation of water from oceans, lakes, rivers, etc. will increase. Since heated air can hold more water vapor, this creates a powerful feedback effect: the warmer it gets, the higher the water vapor content in the air, and this, in turn, increases the greenhouse effect. Human activity has little effect on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. But we emit other greenhouse gases, which makes the greenhouse effect more and more intense. Scientists believe that the increase in CO 2 emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, explains at least about 60% of the warming observed on Earth since 1850. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing by about 0.3% per year, and is now about 30% higher than before the industrial revolution. If this is expressed in absolute terms, then every year humanity adds about 7 billion tons. Despite the fact that this is a small part in relation to the total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - 750 billion tons, and even smaller compared to the amount of CO 2 contained in the oceans - about 35 trillion tons, it remains very significant. The reason: natural processes are in balance, such a volume of CO 2 enters the atmosphere, which is removed from there. And human activity only adds CO 2 .

If current rates continue, atmospheric carbon dioxide will double pre-industrial levels by 2060 and quadruple by the end of the century. This is very worrying, since the life cycle of CO 2 in the atmosphere is more than a hundred years, compared to the eight-day cycle of water vapor. Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Methane, the main component of natural gas, is responsible for 15% of global warming in modern times. Generated by bacteria in rice fields, decaying garbage, agricultural products and fossil fuels, methane has been circulating in the atmosphere for about a decade. Now it is 2.5 times more in the atmosphere than in the 18th century.

Another greenhouse gas is nitric oxide, produced both by agriculture and industry - various solvents and refrigerants, such as chlorofluorocarbons (freons), which are prohibited by international agreement due to their destructive effect on the Earth's protective ozone layer. The relentless accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has led scientists to believe that the average temperature will rise from 1 to 3.50 C this century. (See Appendix #1) This may seem like a small amount to many. Let's take an example to explain. The abnormal cooling in Europe that lasted from 1570 to 1730, forcing European farmers to abandon their fields, was caused by a temperature change of only half a degree Celsius. One can imagine what consequences an increase in temperature by 3.5 0 C can have.

Ways to study climate change.

In modern times, the invention of various computer models of climate change on Earth is becoming popular. They are based on the interactions of various climatic factors such as soil, air, water, glaciers and solar energy. These general circulation models consist of equations showing the studied relationships of atmospheric physics and ocean circulation.

For each part of the planet, the scientists calculated the effect of factors such as temperature, the rotation of the Earth, part of the surface above sea level, and other climatic conditions.

But how plausible are these projects? A model is considered perfect if, when it enters information about the climatic conditions on Earth several hundred years ago, it gives an accurate description of today's climate. Very rarely today's models produce a result comparable to the real global climate without various inaccuracies.

This is partly due to the fact that only the most powerful computers can handle this task. And partly because some aspects of climate change are not fully understood. Modelers warn that their creations are not yet perfect enough to determine the detailed effect in specific regions. Models break the entire surface of the Earth into squares usually 200 km on a side, but factors such as ocean storms, storms and cloud activity act on much smaller areas. In these cases, models can determine an approximate result. Computer models usually project the greenhouse effect far into the future, and they are getting better and better at adapting to the rapidly growing body of human knowledge. In addition, it is incredibly difficult to correctly take into account the human impact on global climate fluctuations.

According to Kevin Trenberth, a leading American scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, all computer models predict global warming, but they can only determine the limits of temperature change. Warming could be one degree Celsius this century, or it could be more than three times that. “Using such models is an important and indispensable tool,” says Trenbert, “but they cannot solve the greenhouse effect problem.”

Influence of carbon dioxide on the intensity of the greenhouse effect.

Much remains to be learned about the carbon cycle and the role of the oceans as a huge store of carbon dioxide. As mentioned above, every year humanity adds 7 billion tons of carbon in the form of CO 2 to the available 750 billion tons. But only about half of our emissions - 3 billion tons - remain in the air. This can be explained by the fact that most of the CO 2 is used by terrestrial and marine plants, buried in marine sediments, absorbed by sea water, or otherwise absorbed. Of this large portion of CO 2 (about 4 billion tons), about two billion tons of atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean each year. All this increases the number of unanswered questions: How exactly does sea water interact with atmospheric air, absorbing CO 2 ? How much more carbon can the seas absorb, and what level of global warming could affect their storage capacity? What is the capacity of the oceans to absorb and store heat trapped by climate change?

The role of clouds and suspended particles in air currents, called aerosols, is not easy to take into account when building a climate model. Clouds shade the earth's surface, leading to cooling, but depending on their height, density and other conditions, they can also trap heat reflected from the earth's surface, increasing the intensity of the greenhouse effect. The effect of aerosols is also interesting. Some of them change water vapor, condensing it into small droplets that form clouds. These clouds are very dense and obscure the surface of the Earth for weeks. That is, they block sunlight until they fall out with precipitation. The combined effect can be enormous: the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatuba in the Philippines released enormous amounts of sulfate into the stratosphere, causing a worldwide temperature drop that lasted two years.

Thus, our own pollution, caused mainly by the burning of sulfur-containing coal and oils, can temporarily mitigate the effect of global warming. Experts estimate that during the 20th century, aerosols reduced the amount of warming by 20%. In general, temperatures have risen since the 1940s, but have come down since the 1970s. The effect of aerosols may help explain the anomalous cooling in the middle of the last century.

In 1996, carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere amounted to 24 billion tons. A very active group of researchers object to the notion that one of the causes of global warming is human activity. In her opinion, the main thing is the natural processes of climate change and increased solar activity. But, according to Klaus Hasselmann, head of the German Climatological Center in Hamburg, only 5% can be explained by natural causes, and the remaining 95% is a man-made factor caused by human activity. Some scientists also do not associate the increase in CO 2 with an increase in temperature. Skeptics say that if rising CO2 emissions are to be blamed for rising temperatures, temperatures must have risen during the post-war economic boom, when fossil fuels were burned in huge quantities. However, Jerry Malman, director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, calculated that increased use of coal and oils rapidly increased the sulfur content of the atmosphere, causing cooling. After 1970, the thermal effect of the long life cycle of CO 2 and methane suppressed rapidly decaying aerosols, causing temperatures to rise. Thus, we can conclude that the influence of carbon dioxide on the intensity of the greenhouse effect is enormous and undeniable.

However, the increasing greenhouse effect may not be catastrophic. Indeed, high temperatures may be welcome where they are rare enough. Since 1900, the greatest warming has been observed from 40 to 70 0 north latitude, including Russia, Europe, and the northern part of the United States, where industrial emissions of greenhouse gases began the earliest. Most of the warming occurs at night, primarily due to increased cloud cover that traps outgoing heat. As a result, the sowing season has increased by a week.

What's more, the greenhouse effect may be good news for some farmers. A high concentration of CO 2 can have a positive effect on plants, as plants use carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis, turning it into living tissue. Therefore, more plants means more CO2 uptake from the atmosphere, slowing down global warming.

This phenomenon was investigated by American specialists. They decided to create a model of the world with double the amount of CO 2 in the air. To do this, they used a fourteen-year-old pine forest in Northern California. Gas was pumped through pipes installed among the trees. Photosynthesis increased by 50-60%. But the effect soon reversed. The suffocating trees could not cope with this amount of carbon dioxide. The advantage in photosynthesis was lost. This is another example of how human manipulation leads to unexpected results.

But these small positive aspects of the greenhouse effect cannot be compared with the negative ones. Take the example of the pine forest, where CO 2 has been doubled, and by the end of this century, CO 2 concentrations are projected to quadruple. You can imagine how catastrophic the consequences for plants can be. And this, in turn, will increase the amount of CO 2, since the fewer plants, the greater the concentration of CO 2. greenhouse effect research

Global warming.

The significance of warming, determined by American scientists, could prompt a widespread catastrophe. First, warming will cause an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere (6% more with every degree of temperature increase), which will cause more precipitation and possibly more intense weather in general.

While the frequency of rain and snowfall may increase, the most anticipated effect is that average precipitation fluctuations could be even more pronounced, according to Thomas Karl, an American climate change expert. In areas prone to flooding and water erosion, the forecasts will be dire. The increase in precipitation will be extremely uneven, flooding the wettest areas, making dry areas even more arid.

In addition, Carl suggests that heatwaves could become even more severe where the area has little chance of cooling at night. A three-degree increase in average temperature will increase the possibility of dangerous heat waves (above 35 0 C) in the middle latitudes from once every 12 years to once every 4 years.

Such violent pictures are becoming more and more believable. There is unanimous agreement that the global average temperature has risen by half a degree Celsius since the end of the 18th century, and the 13 hottest years have been since 1980. By some estimates, 1997 was the hottest. This is undeniable proof that humanity is involved in global warming.

The warming may also be part of a natural cycle of mean temperature fluctuations that have fluctuated around 60C over the past 150,000 years. Climatic fluctuations over millennia depend on periodic changes in solar activity, orbit and tilt of the Earth, that is, on the amount of heat supplied to the Earth.

The Earth's rotation does not maintain a constant position with respect to the Sun. In the 1930s, the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milanković established that there is a relationship between the three main cycles of the Earth's motion and its climate: the 100,000-year cycle of the Earth's orbit, the 41,000-year cycle of the Earth's axial tilt, and the 23,000-year cycle of the Earth's wobble.

The effect of these cycles can be seen in a plot of ice sheet volume vs. solar illumination, which increased as the intensity of sunlight fell, allowing snowpacks to prolong their melting period and build up over time.

According to these cycles, we are now in the middle of a cooling period. And now there is an increase in temperature, as if we were in a period of warming.

Evidence of these climatic changes has been taken from the composition of ice mined from the depths of ancient glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica and from the remains of marine organisms in sedimentary rocks on the seabed.

The rise and fall in temperature over the past 750,000 years has also been investigated by analyzing an ancient Tibetan 300 meter glacier - the largest in the mid-latitudes. Ice samples were collected from various depths. In each sample, the content of a special oxygen isotope 18 O was measured. The greater its content, the higher the temperature in the corresponding period.

Based on this study, a graph was constructed. The resulting temperature was superimposed on a graph of solar intensity fluctuations, according to the 100,000-year Milankovitch cycle.

It is possible that around 1860, when scientists first addressed the problem of global warming, the planet was still in a period of abnormal cooling. True warming may be caused by the end of this period, and the greenhouse effect may be superimposed on this direction of climate fluctuation.

However, to refute this opinion, for many scientists the critical aspect is the rate of today's climate warming, which cannot be compared with the rates of natural climate fluctuations. In the 20th century, the warming amounted to 0.5 0 C, it is unusually large, sudden and widespread.

Over the past 150 years, a decrease in ice sheets due to global warming has been observed throughout the planet. And over the past 40 years, the temperature in Antarctica has increased by 2.5 0 C, one of the largest ice fields has decreased by one third, and the other has melted by 1300 m 2 in 1995 alone. The melting of glaciers has already led to a 10-25 cm sea level rise in the last century. It is known that if the level of the World Ocean rises by 1 meter, then many coastal cities will be flooded.

The decrease in ice cover can be seen in the example of a glacier in Switzerland, which was part of the Alps 150 years ago. "If the climate continues to change at these incredible rates, as we believe it will, the implications of the future greenhouse effect will be enormous, even on a geological scale," said Thomas Crowley, an American oceanographer.

Consequences of the greenhouse effect.

What is the urgency of the actions considered at the 1997 climate change conference in Kyoto, Japan, at which industrial nations agreed in principle to cut greenhouse gas emissions? No other issue is as hotly disputed among scientists and politicians as this one. Some feel that immediate action is not justified: tangible climate change, they say, is gradual enough for us to adapt to. And even if all emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere stop tomorrow, the planet will still be warming up for several decades, due to the long life cycle of gases in the atmosphere.

On the other hand, there is evidence that some events can radically change the climate over a period of several tens of days. Perhaps the greatest fear is the sudden collapse of the huge Atlantic Transportation Belt, a system that brings warm water north of the equator, making Europe a few degrees warmer. The evaporation of this incoming flow leaves this belt with more salt than the rest of the North Atlantic, which contains a steady excess of water from continental basins. The belt becomes colder and denser as it reaches Greenland, where it completely sinks.

But what if human-induced global warming changes the temperature difference between the streams and at the same time increases precipitation, diluting the salinity of the northward stream? The entire Atlantic transport belt may come to an end, as evidenced by oceanic sediments, this has happened several times in the past. The effect will be disastrous. According to some calculations, the temperature in Ireland will be the same as today in Svalbard, which is located hundreds of kilometers above the Arctic Circle. Almost all of northern Europe will be uninhabitable.

But no one knows for sure whether such things will happen. In addition, the specific human effect on climate change will remain uncertain for a long time to come, as our knowledge increases and models improve. "The next ten years will tell," says Tim Barnett, a climate scientist at the Oceanographic Institute, California. "We have to wait until that time to really see."

Factors of climate change.

After evaluating the opinions of various experts, it can be determined that the climate is changing due to various combinations of various climatic factors, the mechanism of many of which is not yet understood by modern science. Here is a list of the main climatic factors.

Solar radiation. Having flown 149 billion kilometers, sunlight heats the upper layer of the atmosphere with an intensity of 180 W / m 2. One third of this heat is reflected back into space. The rest passes through the atmosphere, heating the earth's surface.

Atmosphere. The delicate balance of gases in the atmosphere gives the Earth an average temperature of 15 0 C. Greenhouse gases - water vapor, CO 2 , methane, nitrogen oxides and others - trap the energy reflected by the earth's surface and reflect it back to the earth.

Oceans. Covering 71% of the earth's surface area, the oceans are the main source of atmospheric water vapor. The oceans can store heat for long periods of time and transport it thousands of miles. When warm water collects in one place, evaporation and cloud formation can increase. Marine organisms consume huge amounts of carbon dioxide.

The water cycle. An increase in air temperature can mean an increase in water evaporation and the melting of ice on water and land. Water vapor is also the most efficient and effective greenhouse gas. However, cloud formation can have a cooling effect.

Clouds. The role of clouds is not fully understood, but it is known that clouds have a dual effect: they cool, shading the earth's surface, and heat, retaining the heat reflected by the earth's surface.

Glaciers and snow covers. The bright white color of glaciers and snow caps reflects sunlight back into space, cooling the planet. Melting ice in the oceans lowers the temperature of the water. In the Northern Hemisphere, the area of ​​snow cover has decreased over the past 25 years by 10%, but a significant decrease in the volume of ice in Antarctica has not yet been observed. Although the likelihood that this will happen is constantly increasing.

Earth surface. When solar energy hits the earth's surface, it turns into heat, some of which is quickly reflected into the atmosphere. Therefore, topography (the relative position of individual points in the area 1) and cultivation of the land have an enormous influence on the climate. Mountain ranges can block the movement of clouds, creating dry areas in the direction of the wind. Loose soils can absorb more moisture, making the air drier. A rainforest can absorb a lot of carbon dioxide, but if the forest is cut down, the same area will become a source of methane. If such a forest is burned, a large amount of carbon dioxide will be released. Globally, burning forests accounts for half of the increase in CO 2 in the atmosphere.

Human impact. By adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, humanity is causing global warming. Fuel combustion is the main reason for the increase in CO 2 concentration. Pastoralism, rice cultivation and landfills have increased the levels of methane in the atmosphere. Aerosols, industrial sulfate emissions reflect incoming sunlight, creating a temporary localized cooling effect.

In 1992, in Rio de Janeiro, the leading industrialized countries committed themselves to reducing carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. When he took office in 1993, US President Bill Clinton emphasized the importance of achieving the goals set in Rio de Janeiro. But at the end of October 1999, he said that only by 2008 could industrial countries return to the level of greenhouse gas emissions in 1990, and even then only if China also undertakes to adopt relevant laws in its country.

Now, on average, a US citizen burns so much fuel annually that 19 tons of carbon dioxide are released (in Germany - 11 tons, in China - two, in India - one ton).

Greenhouse gases.

Greenhouse gases are gases that are believed to cause the global greenhouse effect.

The main greenhouse gases, in order of their estimated impact on the Earth's heat balance, are water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, halocarbons and nitrous oxide.

water vapor

Water vapor is the main natural greenhouse gas responsible for more than 60% of the effect. Direct anthropogenic impact on this source is insignificant. At the same time, an increase in the Earth's temperature caused by other factors increases evaporation and the total concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere at a practically constant relative humidity, which in turn increases the greenhouse effect. Thus, there is some positive feedback. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, thereby increasing the Earth's albedo, which somewhat reduces the effect.

Carbon dioxide

Sources of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere are volcanic emissions, vital activity of organisms, and human activities. Anthropogenic sources are fossil fuel combustion, biomass combustion (including deforestation), some industrial processes (eg cement production). Plants are the main consumers of carbon dioxide. Normally, the biocenosis absorbs approximately the same amount of carbon dioxide as it produces (including due to the decay of biomass).

The main anthropogenic sources of methane are the digestive fermentation of livestock, rice growing, biomass combustion (including deforestation). As recent studies have shown, a rapid increase in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere occurred in the first millennium of our era (presumably as a result of the expansion of agricultural production and pastoralism and the burning of forests). Between 1000 and 1700, methane concentrations fell by 40%, but began to rise again in recent centuries (presumably as a result of the increase in arable land and pastures and the burning of forests, the use of wood for heating, the increase in the number of livestock, the amount of sewage, the cultivation of rice) . Leaks during the development of hard coal and natural gas deposits, as well as methane emissions in the composition of biogas generated at landfills, make some contribution to the methane supply. Hosted on Allbest.ru

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Introduction……………………………………………………………………2 – 3

1. The essence and concept of the greenhouse effect…………………………..4 - 10

1.1 Greenhouse effect………………………………………………………4 - 5

1.2 Greenhouse gases……………………………………………………...6 - 10

2. Consequences of the greenhouse effect………………………………….11 - 12

3. Environmental forecasting……………………………………….13 - 14

4. Ways to reduce the impact of the greenhouse effect on the Earth's climate………………………………………………………………………..15 - 16

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………...17

References…………………………………………………………..18

Application…………………………………………………………………..19

Introduction.

Environmental protection and rational use of natural resources is one of the pressing global problems of our time. Its solution is inextricably linked with the struggle for peace on Earth, for the prevention of a nuclear catastrophe, disarmament, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial cooperation between states.

Something is wrong with the weather! The old people are talking about it on the benches. Scientists talk about this at their seminars and conferences. Old-timers are surprised to notice that numerous folk signs such as: “If the summer was cold, then winter ...” have ceased to come true, as if processes are taking place in nature that no longer fit into the previous schemes and formulas. Anomalous and rather powerful ordinary earthquakes, grandiose floods and hurricanes have become frequent guests in many countries of the world, which previously knew about such troubles only by hearsay.

In recent decades, we have all observed a sharp rise in temperature, when in winter, instead of negative temperatures, we observe months of thaws up to 5-8 degrees Celsius, and in the summer months, droughts and dry winds that dry up the soil of the earth and lead to its erosion. Why is this happening?

Scientists argue that the cause, first of all, is the destructive activity of mankind, leading to a global change in the Earth's climate.

Fuel combustion in power plants, a sharp increase in the amount of waste from human production, an increase in road transport and, as a result, an increase in carbon dioxide emissions into the Earth's atmosphere with a sharp reduction in the forest park zone, led to the emergence of the so-called greenhouse effect of the Earth.

1. The essence and concept of the greenhouse effect.

1.1 Greenhouse effect.

What happens to the Earth's climate?

Human activity can lead to the heating of the globe beyond the maximum allowable capacity.

There are opposing opinions that the climate of the Earth is changing, on the contrary, in the direction of cooling. And, in general, in recent years, meteorologists from different countries have come to the conclusion that something has gone wrong in the comprehensive weather system on the globe. In their opinion, the climate on earth is beginning to change not for the better. Some meteorologists believe that a general natural disaster is approaching, which will be difficult to prevent. What should we be afraid of: drought, poor harvest, famine, or, conversely, count on a gradual improvement in the weather and a return to the climatic conditions of the first half of the 20th century, which are considered the best in world history.

Most scientists agree that the atmosphere, however, is rather warming rather than cooling. The reason for this is the tremendous changes made by man. Now, according to meteorologists, human activity is becoming an increasingly important factor influencing the Earth's climate balance. The reason for this can be various factors, however, many scientists attribute this to the greenhouse effect.

The concept of the greenhouse effect first appeared in physics. It was formulated by Tyndall back in 1863. In 1896, Arrhenius showed that carbon dioxide, which makes up an insignificant part of the atmosphere (about 0.03%), maintains its temperature by 5-6 degrees C higher than if this gas was absent. In 1938, Callender was the first to suggest the possible impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions on the climate.

The greenhouse effect is the retention of a significant part of the thermal energy of the Sun near the earth's surface, which occurs due to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide. This is because the atmosphere transmits most of the solar radiation. Some of the rays are absorbed and heat the earth's surface, and the atmosphere is heated from it. Another part of the rays is reflected from the surface of the Planet and this radiation is absorbed by carbon dioxide molecules, which contributes to an increase in the average temperature of the Planet.

The action of the greenhouse effect is similar to the action of glass in a greenhouse or greenhouse (hence the name "greenhouse effect").

1.2 Greenhouse gases.

Consider what happens to the bodies in the glass greenhouse. High-energy radiation enters the greenhouse through the glass. It is absorbed by the bodies inside the greenhouse. They then themselves emit lower energy radiation, which is absorbed by the glass. The glass sends some of that energy back, providing the objects inside with additional heat. In the same way, the earth's surface receives additional heat as "greenhouse" gases absorb and then emit radiation of lower energy.

Gases that cause the greenhouse effect by their increased concentration are called greenhouse gases. This is mainly carbon dioxide and water vapor, but there are other gases that absorb energy from the Earth. For example, chlorofluorine containing hydrocarbon gases, such as freons or freons, as well as small amounts of ozone, methane, nitrogen oxide. The concentration of these gases in the atmosphere is also increasing. [p. 180]

NATURAL GAS.

Natural gas used in the energy sector is a non-renewable energy resource, while at the same time it is the most environmentally friendly type of traditional energy fuel. Natural gas is 98% methane,

the remaining 2% are ethane, propane, butane and some other substances. When burning gas, the only truly dangerous air pollutant is a mixture of nitrogen oxides.

Thermal power plants and heating boilers using natural gas emit half as much greenhouse gas as coal-fired power plants that produce the same amount of energy.

The use of liquefied and compressed natural gas in road transport makes it possible to significantly reduce environmental pollution and improve air quality in cities, that is, "slow down" the greenhouse effect. Compared to oil, natural gas does not produce such environmental pollution during production and transportation to the place of consumption.

Natural gas reserves in the world reach 70 trillion cubic meters. If the current production volumes are maintained, they will be enough for more than 100 years. Gas deposits occur both separately and in combination with oil, water, and also in the solid state (the so-called gas hydrate accumulations). Most natural gas fields are located in hard-to-reach and ecologically vulnerable areas of the Polar Tundra.

Although natural gas does not cause a greenhouse effect, it can be classified as a "greenhouse" gas, since its use releases carbon dioxide, which contributes to the greenhouse effect.

CARBON DIOXIDE.

Carbon dioxide CO2 is formed during the complete oxidation of oxygen-containing fuel. CO2 released into the atmosphere remains in it for an average of 2-4 years. During this time, it spreads everywhere on the earth's surface. The influence of CO2 is expressed not only in the toxic effect on living organisms, but also in the ability to absorb infrared rays. When the earth's surface is heated by the sun's rays, part of the heat in the form of infrared radiation is reflected back into the world space. The reflected heat is partially intercepted by gases that absorb infrared radiation. If this phenomenon occurs in the troposphere, then the observed increase in temperature can lead to climate change - the greenhouse effect. It is CO2 emissions that largely determine the process of climate warming.

When burning, as you know, oxygen is absorbed and carbon dioxide is released. As a result of this process, every year humanity emits 7 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere! It is difficult to even imagine this value. At the same time, forests are being cut down on Earth - one of the main consumers of carbon dioxide, moreover, they are being cut down at a speed of 12 hectares per minute!!! So it turns out that more and more carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, and less and less is consumed by plants.

The cycle of carbon dioxide on Earth is disturbed, therefore, in recent years, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, although slowly but surely, has been increasing. And the more it is, the stronger the greenhouse effect.

METHANE

Next in terms of contribution to the greenhouse effect are methane CH4 and nitrous oxide N2O. The concentration of both gases is determined by both natural and anthropogenic causes. So, a natural source of CH4 is waterlogged soils in which anaerobic decomposition processes occur. Man added his own sources - rice plantations, extraction and transportation of natural gas, burning of biomass, etc. Natural suppliers of N2O to the atmosphere include the ocean and soils. The anthropogenic additive is associated with the combustion of fuel and biomass, the leaching of nitrogen fertilizers. There is an assumption that methane is the main cause of warming. In particular, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences N.A. Yasamanov, suggest that methane is mainly "guilty" of the current global warming. Many "climate activists" consider the greenhouse effect and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to be synonymous. Meanwhile, this gas does not rise to the upper layers of the atmosphere, but is successfully absorbed by vegetation and soil organisms in the lower layer, and dissolves in rivers, lakes and seas. Most of the CO2 is spent on the construction of the skeleton of aquatic organisms and absorbed by phytoplankton, while the excess is accumulated in bottom sediments. Methane from the earth's surface quickly enters the boundary of the troposphere and stratosphere. Not only does it actively participate in the greenhouse effect, at an altitude of 15-20 km under the action of sunlight it decomposes into hydrogen and carbon, which, when combined with oxygen, forms CO2. Where does methane enter the atmosphere from? It is formed in swamps when organic matter rots. No wonder it is also called swamp gas. In considerable quantities, it is also supplied by vast mangroves in the tropics. It enters the atmosphere and from tectonic faults and cracks during earthquakes. Anthropogenic emissions of methane are also large. Natural and anthropogenic emissions are estimated to be around 70% and 30%, but the latter are growing rapidly. On the whole, the steady increase in the content of methane in the atmosphere, recorded in recent decades, casts doubt on the fact that climate change is caused only by those anthropogenic factors that are so fond of discussing "Kyoto enthusiasts" (Kyoto agreement) rapidly multiplying in an increasingly warm climate.

OXIDES OF NITROGEN.

Thermal power engineering produces about 50% of nitrogen oxide emissions into the atmosphere. Quantitatively, emissions of nitrogen oxides are 3-5 times lower than those of sulfur dioxide. However, they are more toxic, contribute to the formation of photochemical smog, and lead to the accumulation of ozone in the surface layer, which enhances the greenhouse effect. Nitrogen oxides have a pronounced irritant effect, especially on mucous membranes.

Sources of small gases, primarily nitrogen oxides, are the combustion of fossil fuels and biota. Methane is emitted as a result of agricultural activities (livestock, rice cultivation), as well as due to a violation of the natural methane filter (from bacteria). Halocarbons are exclusively of anthropogenic origin.

If you look at the data on the contribution of different countries to the greenhouse effect, you can be horrified. (see annex 1)

2. Consequences of the greenhouse effect.

As a result of emissions into the atmosphere, the average annual temperature has increased and continues to increase. And if the temperature continues to increase, it will have a serious impact on the global climate:

1. More precipitation will fall in the tropics, as additional heat will increase the amount of water vapor in the air.

2. In arid regions, the rains will become even rarer and they will turn into deserts, as a result of which people and animals will have to leave them.

3. The temperature of the seas will also rise, which will lead to the flooding of low-lying areas of the coast and to an increase in the number of severe storms.

4. An increase in temperature on Earth can cause sea level rise because:

a) water, as it heats up, becomes less dense and expands, the expansion of sea water will lead to a general rise in sea level;

b) an increase in temperature can melt some of the multi-year ice covering some areas of land, such as Antarctica or high mountain ranges.

The resulting water will eventually drain into the seas, raising their levels. It should be noted, however, that the melting of ice floating in the seas will not cause sea levels to rise. The Arctic ice sheet is a huge layer of floating ice. Like Antarctica, the Arctic is also surrounded by many icebergs.

Climatologists have calculated that if the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers melt, the level of the World Ocean will rise by 70-80 m.

5. Residential land will shrink.

6. The water-salt balance of the oceans will be disturbed.

7. Trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones will change.

8. If the temperature on Earth rises, many animals will not be able to adapt to climate change. Many plants will die from lack of moisture, and animals will have to move to other places in search of food and water. If the increase in temperature leads to the death of many plants, then many species of animals will die out after them.

In addition to the negative effects of global warming, there are several positive ones. On the face of it, a warmer climate appears to be a boon, as heating bills can be reduced and growing seasons longer in mid and high latitudes. Increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide can speed up photosynthesis.

However, the potential yield gain could be wiped out by disease damage caused by harmful insects, as higher temperatures will speed up their reproduction. Soils in some areas will be unsuitable for growing basic crops. Global warming would probably accelerate the decomposition of organic matter in soils, which would lead to an additional release of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and accelerate the greenhouse effect. What awaits us in the future?

3. Environmental forecasting

Currently, various measures are being discussed that could prevent the growing "anthropogenic overheating" of the Earth. There is a proposal to extract excess CO2 from the air, liquefy and pump it into the deep layers of the ocean, using its natural circulation. Another proposal is to disperse the smallest droplets of sulfuric acid in the stratosphere and thereby reduce the influx of solar radiation on the earth's surface.

The huge scale of the anthropogenic reduction of the biosphere already gives grounds to believe that the solution of the CO2 problem should be carried out by "treating" the biosphere itself, i.e. restoration of soil and vegetation cover with maximum reserves of organic matter wherever possible. At the same time, the search should be intensified, aimed at replacing fossil fuels with other energy sources, primarily environmentally friendly ones that do not require oxygen consumption, more widely use water, wind energy, and for the future - the energy of the reaction of matter and antimatter.

It is known that there is a blessing in disguise, and it turned out that the current industrial decline in the country turned out to be beneficial - environmentally. Decreased production volumes. and, accordingly, the amount of harmful emissions into the atmosphere of cities has decreased.

Ways to solve the problem of clean air is quite real. The first is the fight against the reduction of the Earth's vegetation cover, the systematic increase in its composition of specially selected rocks that purify the air from harmful impurities. The Institute of Plant Biochemistry has experimentally proved that many plants are able to absorb from the atmosphere such components harmful to humans as alkanes and aromatic hydrocarbons, as well as carbonyl compounds, acids, alcohols, essential oils and others.

An important place in the fight against atmospheric pollution belongs to the irrigation of deserts and the organization of cultural farming here, the creation of powerful forest protection belts. There is a lot of work to be done to reduce and completely stop the emission of smoke and other combustion products into the atmosphere. More and more urgent is the search for technology for "pipeless" industrial enterprises operating in a closed technological scheme - using all production waste.

Human activity is so grandiose in scope that it has already acquired a global nature-forming scale. Until now, we have mainly sought to take as much as possible from nature. And the search in this direction will continue. But the time has come to work just as purposefully on how to give back to nature what we take from it. There is no doubt that the genius of mankind is capable of solving this daunting task.

Ways to reduce the impact of the greenhouse effect on the state of the Earth's climate

The main measure to prevent global warming can be formulated as follows: find a new type of fuel or change the technology for using current fuels. This means that you need:

Reduce consumption of fossil fuels. Dramatically reduce the use of coal and oil, which emit 60% more carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced than any other fossil fuel in general;

use substances (filters, catalysts) to remove carbon dioxide from the emission of chimneys of coal-burning power plants and factory furnaces, as well as automobile exhausts;

increase the energy efficiency;

demand that new homes use more efficient heating and cooling systems;

increase the use of solar, wind and geothermal energy;

significantly slow down the deforestation and degradation of forests;

remove storage tanks for hazardous substances from coastal areas;

expand the area of ​​existing reserves and parks;

Create laws to prevent global warming;

identify the causes of global warming, observe them and eliminate their consequences.

It is impossible to completely eliminate the greenhouse effect. It is believed that if it were not for the greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the earth's surface would be -15 degrees Celsius.

A number of recent actions at the international level can be considered an attempt to manage the climate. These include some of the decisions taken at climate conferences under the UNFCCC, in particular decisions to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

Conclusion.

Man thinks that he is able to tame nature, but this is not so at all. Unfortunately, we understand this only when it is too late, when nature begins to play with us according to its own rules.

I believe that now all efforts should be devoted to ensuring that the environment around us and we feel good, namely, that a closed cycle is developed at each production facility, that is, that nothing is thrown into the air or into the rivers, but everything processed and used. Everyone will only benefit from this. The state will receive additional products, and people will breathe clean air.

The problem is that when the hypothesis of anthropogenic factors of global warming is confirmed, it will be too late to do anything. It is likely that the prospect of the greenhouse effect could be the catalyst for worldwide awareness of the urgent need to take action to protect our Earth.

Bibliography.

Glushkova, V.G., "Ecological and economic problems of Russia and its regions", ed. Moscow Lyceum, 2003

Miller, T. "Life in the environment": in 3 vols.: program of the general ecologist. education: [per. from English. ] / Tyler Miller. - M .: Progress: Pangea, 1996 - 3 vols.

Miller, T. "Life in the environment": in 3 vols.: program of the general ecologist. education: [per. from English. ] / Tyler Miller. - M .: Progress: Pangea, 1993 - 1 vol.

Nikanorov, A.M. Global ecology [Text]: textbook. allowance / A.M. Nikanorov, T.A. Khoruzhaya. - M. : PRIOR, 2000

Udaltsov, G.A. "Ecology and the future", Moscow, ed. 1988

"Kaleidoscope" 12(46), 1997

Appendix.

Table 1.

Region, country	Net contribution to the greenhouse effect
	carbon dioxide		chlorofluorocarbons	sum of gases	% of global contribution
effect 3. Environmental forecasting 4. Ways to reduce the impact greenhouse effect...many scholars associate it with greenhouse effect. GREENHOUSE EFFECT. Long-term observations show that... greenhouse Effect (6) Abstract >> Ecology And, especially in recent years, greenhouse Effect has become a major scientific problem, from ... is the main component that causes greenhouse Effect anthropogenic origin. It is known ... carbon in the atmosphere enhances greenhouse Effect since CO2 is successful... greenhouse Effect (13) Abstract >> Biology Concepts greenhouse effect; - Identification of harmful effects greenhouse effect; - Consider ways to reduce impact greenhouse effect; ... from this arose the name " greenhouse Effect"). greenhouse Effect- an increase in the temperature of the lower layers ... greenhouse Effect (7) Abstract >> Ecology ... greenhouse Effect: historical information and reasons 1.1. Historical information 1.2. Reasons 2. greenhouse Effect: formation mechanism, amplification 2.1. Mechanism greenhouse effect ... greenhouse Effect (15) Abstract >> Ecology However, many scholars attribute this to greenhouse effect. GREENHOUSE EFFECT. Long-term observations show that as a result...

The mechanism of the greenhouse effect is as follows. The sun's rays, reaching the Earth, are absorbed by the soil surface, vegetation, water surface, etc. The heated surfaces give off thermal energy again to the atmosphere, but in the form of long-wave radiation.

Atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon) do not absorb thermal radiation from the earth's surface, but scatter it. However, as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels and other production processes, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, various hydrocarbons (methane, ethane, propane, etc.) accumulate in the atmosphere, which do not scatter, but absorb thermal radiation coming from the Earth's surface. The screen that arises in this way leads to the appearance of the greenhouse effect - global warming.

In addition to the greenhouse effect, the presence of these gases causes the formation of the so-called photochemical smog. At the same time, as a result of photochemical reactions, hydrocarbons form very toxic products - aldehydes and ketones.

Global warming is one of the most significant consequences of anthropogenic pollution of the biosphere. It manifests itself both in climate change and in biota: the production process in ecosystems, the shift in the boundaries of plant formations, and changes in crop yields. Especially strong changes can affect high and middle latitudes. According to forecasts, it is here that the temperature of the atmosphere will increase most noticeably. The nature of these regions is especially susceptible to various impacts and is extremely slowly restored.

As a result of warming, the taiga zone will shift to the north by about 100-200 km. The rise in the ocean level due to warming (melting of ice and glaciers) can be up to 0.2 m, which will lead to the flooding of the mouths of large, especially Siberian, rivers.

At the regular conference of the countries-participants of the Convention on Prevention of Climate Change, held in Rome in 1996, the need for coordinated international action to solve this problem was once again confirmed. In accordance with the Convention, industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition have assumed obligations to stabilize the production of greenhouse gases. The countries of the European Union have included provisions in their national programs to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2005.

In 1997, the Kyoto (Japan) agreement was signed, under which developed countries pledged to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by 2000.

However, greenhouse gas emissions have even increased since then. This was facilitated by the US withdrawal from the 2001 Kyoto Agreement. Thus, the implementation of this agreement was threatened with disruption, since the quota necessary for the entry into force of this agreement was violated.

In Russia, due to the general decline in production, greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 amounted to 80% of the 1990 level. Therefore, in 2004 Russia ratified the Kyoto agreement, giving it a legal status. Now (2012) this agreement is in force, other states (for example, Australia) join it, but the decisions of the Kyoto Agreement remain unfulfilled. However, the struggle to implement the Kyoto agreement continues.

One of the most famous fighters against global warming is the former Vice President of the United States. A. Gore. After losing the 2000 presidential election, he dedicates himself to combating global warming. "Save the world before it's too late!" is its slogan. Armed with a set of slides, he traveled the world explaining the science and politics of global warming, the potential for serious consequences in the near future, if not limited by the rise in human-caused carbon dioxide emissions.

A. Gore wrote a widely known book “Inconvenient truth. Global warming, how to stop a planetary catastrophe. In it, he confidently and rightly writes: “Sometimes it seems that our climate crisis is proceeding slowly, but in fact it is happening very quickly, becoming a truly planetary danger. And in order to defeat the threat, we must first recognize the fact of its existence. Why don't our leaders seem to hear such loud warnings of danger? They resist the truth, because at the moment of recognition they will face their moral duty - to act. Is it just much more convenient to ignore the danger warning? Perhaps, but an inconvenient truth does not disappear just because it is not seen.

In 2006, he was awarded the American Literary Prize for the book. The book was made into a documentary The Inconvenient Truth" with A. Gore in the title role. The film in 2007 received an Oscar and was included in the rubric "Everyone Should Know This". In the same year, A. Gore (together with a group of IPCC experts) was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on environmental protection and research on climate change.

Currently, A. Gore is also actively continuing the fight against global warming, being a freelance consultant for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

Global warming and greenhouse effect

Back in 1827, the French physicist J. Fourier suggested that the Earth's atmosphere acts as a glass in a greenhouse: air lets in solar heat, but does not allow it to evaporate back into space. And he was right. This effect is achieved due to some atmospheric gases, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide. They transmit visible and "near" infrared light emitted by the Sun, but absorb "far" infrared radiation, which is formed when the earth's surface is heated by the sun's rays and has a lower frequency (Fig. 12).

In 1909, the Swedish chemist S. Arrhenius for the first time emphasized the enormous role of carbon dioxide as a temperature regulator of the near-surface air layers. Carbon dioxide freely transmits the sun's rays to the earth's surface, but absorbs most of the thermal radiation of the earth. This is a kind of colossal screen that prevents the cooling of our planet.

The temperature of the Earth's surface is steadily increasing, having increased over the XX century. by 0.6 °C. In 1969 it was 13.99°C, in 2000 it was 14.43°C. Thus, the average temperature of the Earth at present is about 15 °C. At a given temperature, the surface of the planet and the atmosphere are in thermal equilibrium. Heated by the energy of the Sun and the infrared radiation of the atmosphere, the surface of the Earth returns an average equivalent amount of energy to the atmosphere. This is the energy of evaporation, convection, heat conduction and infrared radiation.

Rice. 12. Schematic representation of the greenhouse effect due to the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Recently, human activity has introduced an imbalance in the ratio of absorbed and released energy. Before human intervention in the global processes on the planet, the changes taking place on its surface and in the atmosphere were associated with the content of gases in nature, which, with the light hand of scientists, were called "greenhouse". These gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide and water vapor (Fig. 13). Now anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been added to them. Without the gas "blanket" enveloping the Earth, the temperature on its surface would be 30-40 degrees lower. The existence of living organisms in this case would be very problematic.

Greenhouse gases temporarily trap heat in our atmosphere, creating the so-called greenhouse effect. As a result of technogenic human activities, some greenhouse gases increase their share in the overall balance of the atmosphere. This applies primarily to carbon dioxide, the content of which has been steadily increasing from decade to decade. Carbon dioxide creates 50% of the greenhouse effect, CFCs account for 15-20%, and methane accounts for 18%.

Rice. 13. The proportion of anthropogenic gases in the atmosphere with the greenhouse effect of nitrogen 6%

In the first half of the XX century. the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was estimated at 0.03%. In 1956, within the framework of the first International Geophysical Year, scientists conducted special studies. The given figure was adjusted and amounted to 0.028%. In 1985, measurements were taken again, and it turned out that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had increased to 0.034%. Thus, an increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a proven fact.

Over the past 200 years, as a result of anthropogenic activities, the content of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere has increased by 25%. This is due, on the one hand, to the intensive burning of fossil fuels: gas, oil, shale, coal, etc., and on the other hand, to the annual decrease in forest areas, which are the main sinks of carbon dioxide. In addition, the development of such agricultural sectors as rice growing and animal husbandry, as well as the growth of urban landfill areas, lead to an increase in the emission of methane, nitrogen oxide and some other gases.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Its content in the atmosphere increases by 1% annually. The most significant suppliers of methane are landfills, cattle, and rice fields. Gas reserves in the landfills of large cities can be considered as small gas fields. As for rice fields, it turned out that despite the large release of methane, relatively little of it enters the atmosphere, since most of it is broken down by bacteria associated with the rice root system. Thus, the impact of rice agricultural ecosystems on the release of methane into the atmosphere is generally moderate.

Today there is no doubt that the trend towards the use of predominantly fossil fuels inevitably leads to global catastrophic climate change. At the current rate of use of coal and oil in the next 50 years, an increase in the average annual temperature on the planet is predicted in the range from 1.5 ° C (near the equator) to 5 ° C (in high latitudes).

An increase in temperature as a result of the greenhouse effect threatens with unprecedented environmental, economic and social consequences. The water level in the oceans can rise by 1-2 m due to sea water and the melting of polar ice. (Due to the greenhouse effect, the level of the World Ocean in the 20th century has already risen by 10-20 cm.) It has been established that a 1 mm rise in sea level leads to a retreat of the coastline by 1.5 m.

If the sea level rises by about 1 m (and this is the worst scenario), then by 2100 about 1% of the territory of Egypt, 6% of the territory of the Netherlands, 17.5% of the territory of Bangladesh and 80% of the Majuro Atoll, which is part of the Marshal, will be under water - fishing islands. This will be the beginning of a tragedy for 46 million people. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, the rise in the level of the World Ocean in the XXI century. may entail the disappearance from the world map of countries such as Holland, Pakistan and Israel, the flooding of most of Japan and some other island states. St. Petersburg, New York and Washington may go under water. While some parts of the land are at risk of being at the bottom of the sea, others will suffer from the most severe drought. Disappearance threatens the Azov and Aral seas and many rivers. The area of ​​deserts will increase.

A group of Swedish climatologists found that from 1978 to 1995 the area of ​​floating ice in the Arctic Ocean decreased by about 610 thousand km2, i.e. by 5.7%. At the same time, it turned out that through the Fram Strait, which separates the Svalbard (Svalbard) archipelago from Greenland, up to 2600 km 3 of floating ice is annually carried into the open Atlantic at an average speed of about 15 cm / s (which is about 15-20 times more than the flow of such a river as Congo).

In July 2002, a call for help was heard from the small island state of Tuvalu, located on nine atolls in the South Pacific Ocean (26 km 2, 11.5 thousand inhabitants). Tuvalu is slowly but surely submerged - the highest point in the state rises only 5 m above sea level. time to raise the sea level in the area by more than 3 m, due to rising ocean levels due to global warming. If this trend continues, the tiny state will be washed off the face of the Earth. The government of Tuvalu is taking measures to resettle citizens in the neighboring state of Niue.

An increase in temperature will cause a decrease in soil moisture in many regions of the Earth. Droughts and typhoons will become commonplace. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by 15%. In the coming century, the ice cover of rivers and lakes in the Northern Hemisphere will be 2 weeks less than in the 20th century. Ice is melting in the mountains of South America, Africa, China and Tibet.

Global warming will also affect the state of the world's forests. Forest vegetation, as is known, can exist within very narrow limits of temperature and humidity. Most of it may die, the complex ecological system will be at the stage of destruction, and this will entail a catastrophic decrease in the genetic diversity of plants. As a result of global warming on Earth in the second half of the XXI century. may disappear from a quarter to half of the species of land flora and fauna. Even under the most favorable conditions, by the middle of the century, the immediate threat of extinction will hang over almost 10% of the species of land animals and plants.

Studies have shown that in order to avoid a global catastrophe, it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere to 2 billion tons per year (one third of the current volume). Given the natural population growth, by 2030-2050. per capita should be no more than 1/8 of the amount of carbon emitted today on average per inhabitant of Europe.

In the atmospheric layers of our planet, there are many phenomena that directly affect the climatic conditions of the Earth. Such a phenomenon is considered the greenhouse effect, characterized by an increase in the temperature of the lower atmospheric layers of the globe in comparison with the temperature of the thermal radiation of our planet, which can be observed from space.

This process is considered one of the global environmental problems of our time, because thanks to it, solar heat is retained in the form of greenhouse gases near the Earth's surface and creates the preconditions for global warming.

Greenhouse gases affecting the planet's climate

The principles of the greenhouse effect were first illuminated by Joseph Fourier, considering different types of mechanisms in the formation of the Earth's climate. At the same time, factors that affect the temperature conditions of climatic zones and qualitative heat transfer, and factors that affect state of the overall heat balance our planet. The greenhouse effect is provided by the difference in the transparency of atmospheres in the far and visible infrared ranges. The heat balance of the globe determines the climate and average annual near-surface temperatures.

Active participation in this process is taken by the so-called greenhouse gases, which trap infrared rays that heat the Earth's atmosphere and its surface. According to the degree of influence and impact on the heat balance of our planet, the following types of greenhouse gases are considered to be the main ones:

• water vapor
• Methane

The main one in this list is water vapor (tropospheric air humidity), which makes the main contribution to the greenhouse effect of the earth's atmosphere. Freons and nitric oxide are also involved in the action, but a small concentration of other gases does not have such a significant effect.

The principle of operation and the causes of the greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect, also called the greenhouse effect, is the penetration of short-wave radiation from the Sun to the surface of the Earth, which is facilitated by carbon dioxide. In this case, the thermal radiation of the Earth (long-wave) is delayed. As a result of these ordered actions, our atmosphere is heated for a long time.

Also, the essence of the greenhouse effect can be considered as the possibility of increasing the global temperature of the Earth, which can occur as a result of significant changes in the heat balance. Such a process can lead to a gradual accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of our planet.

the most explicit cause of the greenhouse effect called the release of industrial gases into the atmosphere. It turns out that the negative results of human activity (forest fires, car emissions, the work of various industrial enterprises and the burning of fuel residues) become direct causes of climate warming. Deforestation is also one of these reasons, since it is forests that are the most active absorbers of carbon dioxide.

If normalized for living organisms, then the Earth's ecosystems and people will need to try to adapt to the changed climatic regimes. However, the most reasonable solution would still be to reduce and then regulate emissions.