Sometimes asteroids (or other space objects) crash into the Earth, leaving craters on the continents, fall into the ocean or explode in the atmosphere.
Scientists call such an event a collision with the Earth. Most asteroids are usually small and do not cause any problems. But from time to time there are catastrophic falls.
When will the next big clash be?
First of all, we must be clear about what we mean by "big collision". Typical definition: large enough to cause a regional or planetary catastrophe unprecedented in human history in the form of a series of earthquakes, a "nuclear" winter, or devastating tsunamis.
If we knew exactly the position, speed, shape, and size of every moderately large object in the solar system, we could use physics and mathematics to predict, simply and efficiently, where and when things might happen! Unfortunately, humanity has not yet cataloged all moderately large (or similar) objects, as they are not yet discovered and new asteroids and comets continue to be discovered.
Today, for all the large asteroids that we know of, the best we can do is determine the likelihood of a collision with the Earth and estimate the amount of possible damage to the planet from this collision. To assess the danger of an object, the so-called Turin Scale or Torino Scale was invented - a table showing the degree of danger emanating from a certain celestial object (for example, an asteroid). The Turin Scale uses values from 0 to 10. 0 (zero) means that the probability of an object colliding with the Earth is so small that it falls within the observational error. 10 means that the collision is inevitable, and it will lead to global consequences. The magnitude of the danger according to the Turin Scale is determined on the basis of the mathematical probability of a collision and the kinetic energy of the collision.
So, which large asteroids that we know about are most likely to crash into Earth in the near future?
Current leaders in the list of the most dangerous asteroids
There is a table where this can be viewed − Sentry Risk Table hosted by NASA. Look in it in the column Torino (Turin Scale) for objects of the 1st level of danger or higher. At the time of this writing, there are only two such asteroids, each with a Torino level 1 scale:
Asteroid 2007 VK184
Asteroid 2013 TV135
1st hazard class according to the Turin Scale
Grade 1 is the lowest on the Turin Scale. This means that there is practically no risk of the Earth colliding with the most dangerous asteroids. But it is still non-zero. However, further observations may virtually eliminate the risk of a collision altogether. So, in January 2013, NASA completely ruled out the possibility of a collision with the Earth of the asteroid Apophis, which for a long time was the leader of the asteroid danger and had (initially) the 4th level on the Turin scale.
Asteroid 2007 VK184
Asteroid 2007 VK184 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey in 2007 and has a 1:3000 chance of impacting Earth. This is the highest probability of a collision with the Earth for all asteroids known today. If a collision with it occurs, then the asteroid (most likely) will break up into several separate parts in the atmosphere. However, these individual parts will still be large enough to cause widespread destruction and many casualties if an asteroid strikes in densely populated areas. For comparison, the fall of the Tunguska asteroid (or comet) in 1908 was caused by an object with dimensions of 30-50 meters. This size was enough to produce an air explosion of 40-50 megatons. The explosion power of the Chelyabinsk meteorite ranged from 0.4 to 1.5 megatons with an object size of 17 meters and a mass of 10 thousand tons.
Asteroid 2013 TV135
Asteroid 2013 TV135. Photo: The Virtual Telescope Project 2.0
The 440-meter asteroid 2013 TV135 was discovered in the current 2013, and as a result of observations, the probability of its collision with the Earth in 2032 increased from 1:63000 to 1:9009. The probability of a collision is less than that of Asteroid 2007 VK184, but still this probability is quite high, given the fact that the consequences of the impact of Asteroid 2013 TV135 on Earth can lead to destruction in a radius of 260,000 square kilometers and cause significant changes in the planet's climate in the future.
Collision prediction by analyzing the history of the Earth
Vredefort Crater is the largest and oldest known meteorite crater located in South Africa.
There is another way to calculate the probability of a large object colliding with the Earth is to study everything we know about past events:
Objects with dimensions from 5-10 meters wide.
They collide with the Earth about once a year and release more energy than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. They usually go unnoticed, since most of the Earth's surface is uninhabited, and the energy is most often released high in the planet's atmosphere.
Objects with dimensions of 50 meters wide.
They collide with the Earth about once every 1000 years (the Tunguska meteorite is just such a case).
Objects with dimensions of 1000 meters wide.
They collide with the Earth about once every 500,000 years.
Objects with dimensions of 5000 meters wide.
They collide with the Earth about once every 10 million years.
Even larger objects also crashed into the Earth.
The object that hit the Earth 65 million years ago, is at least partly responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs, was about 10,000 meters wide and caused an explosion of 100,000 gigatons. After the fall of this giant asteroid (or comet), 16% of the existing families of marine animals and 18% of the families of land vertebrates disappeared. There is an assumption that the tsunami caused by this catastrophic explosion reached 100 meters in height. A dust cloud from the explosion covered the sun for several years. The fallout caused by the explosion at the end of the Cretaceous period formed a layer of sediments with a high content of iridium and osmium (elements of extraterrestrial origin), which, according to scientists, could not occur naturally on Earth.
Instead of a conclusion
Another place where you can see data on the most dangerous asteroids for the Earth is the list NEODyS "Risk list", which is led by a European consortium.
Both lists and the NASA table and the European "Risk list" demonstrate that, at least in the near future, nothing threatens humanity, since astronomers do not know sufficiently large space objects with a high probability of collision with the Earth. In addition, based on historical facts, it can be predicted that in this and the next century the probability of a planet colliding with a really large object is negligible.
However, it should be noted that both the US and European hazardous object lists do not include objects with large, highly elliptical orbits (such as many comets). They also do not include objects with hyperbolic orbits - objects that fly through the solar system and disappear into space forever, never to return.
In addition, the lists cover only objects known in the near-Earth space and, naturally, do not include yet unknown (not discovered) objects. According to astronomers, there are at least 500,000 of them. For comparison: at the moment, data has been collected on only 10,000 asteroids. So the danger can come at any moment - from where they were not expected, and a hitherto unknown celestial object can forever change life on our Earth.
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The development of technologies, with the help of which it became possible to study space in detail, allowed mankind to learn a lot of information about the space surrounding our planet. As it turned out, many objects move around the Earth: these are not only stars, there are a large number of smaller celestial bodies, called asteroids. But, despite the fact that in size they cannot be compared even with the smallest of the known planets, for humanity they are the most dangerous space formations. Moreover, history knows asteroids that hit the earth in past.
Recently, reports about objects that may soon collide with the Earth began to appear in the media with noticeable periodicity. In 2013, Apophis, listed in the Guinness Book of Records as the most dangerous asteroid, approached the Earth. Today, the Internet is replete with reports of an approaching celestial body called Florence. However, scientists report: this time everything will go fine and there will be no collision.
But the approach of bodies to our planet does not always end so happily. Some of them still overcome the atmosphere and fall to the earth's surface.
Asteroids that have fallen to earth. Huge crater in Africa
Photo: Economictimes.indiatimes.comWhen the solar system was very young, collisions of objects of different sizes were not uncommon. The proof of this is the surface of the Moon and the planets, which lack a “natural shield” – the atmosphere.
Our planet has also seen many such disasters in its lifetime. Traces of the most ancient of them were discovered by scientists. The cosmic body that “kissed” the Earth 3.3 billion years ago was truly gigantic in size - its diameter was about 50 km. For comparison, the famous Apophis, which humanity feared quite recently, is only 250-400 meters in diameter.
Photo: antikleidi.com An asteroid that fell in South Africa caused enormous destruction. The shift of tectonic plates, an earthquake that reached a power of 10 points, a tsunami, the earth's surface burned for thousands of kilometers - terrifying phenomena, evidence of which scientists still find.
Asteroids that have fallen to earth. Sudbury is Canada's source of wealth
Photo: Roogirl.com The "space bomb", which hit the Earth about 1.8 billion years ago, pierced the earth's crust to the mantle, turning the inner layers to the surface. Its fragments scattered over a great distance.
But the modern inhabitants of the planet, born much later than the catastrophe that occurred, were even able to benefit from the collision. The Sudbury region is one of the largest mineral deposits in Canada. And the soil, rich in minerals left behind by magma, is ideal for agriculture.
Asteroids that have fallen to earth. Chiklusub - Death of the Dinosaurs
Photo: Isbn-10.xyz 66 million years ago, the Earth was very different from what we see today. It was inhabited by creatures that can now only be found in films. At that time, dinosaurs were the masters of the planet.
For a long time, no one could understand what caused the extinction of the dominant species at that time. And only in the 20th century it was suggested that the disappearance of many thousands of living beings is a consequence of the fall of a huge celestial body. 
Photo: Dinocreta.com
It is believed that the Earth collided with a very large asteroid. A blow of enormous force provoked many catastrophes that led to the almost complete disappearance of life. Of course, a small part of living beings (mostly small in size) was able to adapt to the dramatically changed conditions. But the dinosaurs are gone forever.
The place where the asteroid fell is a crater located near the city of Chiklusub, which received the same name as this settlement. Judging by its size, the body that collided with the ground had a diameter of 10 km.
Asteroids that have fallen to earth. Tunguska meteorite - the mystery of the century
Photo: baricada.ro At the beginning of the 20th century, or rather in 1908, a space object rushed to the surface of the earth, which later became known as the Tunguska meteorite. Residents of settlements located in the immediate vicinity of the crash site could observe many unusual phenomena associated with this event: nights as bright as day, thunder in a cloudless sky and a grandiose explosion.
But the crater from the fall of a celestial body could not be found. This fact caused a great resonance in the scientific community. Scientists have put forward many theories, ranging from the landing of an alien ship to the fall of an icy comet. None of them has yet been recognized as official.
Asteroids that have fallen to earth. Chelyabinsk disaster
Photo: News.pn An unexpected event happened on February 15, 2013. An unnoticed asteroid flew up to the Earth and collided with its surface near Chelyabinsk, one of the largest industrial centers of Russia.
Photo: Chinadaily.com.cn The fact that the appearance of this celestial object was not predicted by scientists is explained by the fact that it flew up to our planet from the side of the Sun, and it was impossible to notice it with a telescope. It's scary to even think what would happen if the dimensions of the asteroid were not 6 m in diameter, but much larger. Indeed, even the explosion of such a relatively small cosmic body is several dozen times greater than the explosion of a nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima, although its consequences were not so catastrophic.
Often the onset of the end of the world is associated precisely with a collision with a large asteroid. It remains to be hoped that mankind will never see such a catastrophe. But, given the number of objects that annually fly dangerously close to the Earth, the likelihood that someday a large meteorite will still crash into it is very high.
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No matter how skeptical people are about the Hollywood story about the fall of a giant asteroid to Earth, space can still pose a serious danger to our planet. The most real threat, by and large, comes from the depths of the vast universe.
Scientists have found that in the history of the planet there have been numerous collisions with asteroids, and with rather serious consequences. This explains the attention of scientists to dangerous asteroids. These asteroids include those whose hypothetical collision with our planet could lead to the death of mankind. Thus, NASA scientists have identified over 150 celestial bodies that pose a potential threat to human civilization.
The topic of “asteroid attacks” has recently become a topic of interest for scientists. Thus, the fall of meteorites until the second half of the 18th century was taken as an optical illusion. Experts back in the 1960s tried to explain the appearance of craters by "terrestrial" reasons. Now their cosmic origin is beyond doubt.
So, the death of dinosaurs is recorded on the "conscience" of the asteroid, the diameter of which was about 15 kilometers. 65 million years ago, a collision with this asteroid, along with dinosaurs, sent about 85% of plant and animal species to the next world. As a result of the fall of this giant asteroid, a crater was formed, the diameter of which was 200 kilometers. Billions of tons of water vapor and dust, as well as ash and soot from the monstrous fire, rose into the atmosphere. All this eclipsed the sunlight for many months. This could lead to a catastrophic drop in temperature on Earth.
There are many predictions and facts that point to the end of the world in 2012. But how exactly this will happen, no one knows. The Earth is just a crumb in the Universe, which appeared as a result of the interaction of cosmic bodies, and it is possible that it will also disappear. The fall of the asteroid, most likely, will not destroy the planet itself, but will rid it of people, animals and plants, i.e. from life. Will the Earth shatter into many pieces? Or maybe turn into Mars? So far, one can only speculate on this subject, based on the data that NASA shares with the general public.
Asteroids and comets often fly in quite dangerous proximity to the Earth, and even the slightest violation of their trajectory can lead to unpredictable consequences. So, if a comet falls on glaciers, it will cause them to melt, global warming, and floods. Some scientists claim that in the entire history of the planet Earth, it collided with an asteroid about 6 times. Craters testify to this, the origin of which can only be explained by the fall of an asteroid to Earth.
The consequences of the fall of an asteroid can be very different. It all depends on the size of the asteroid, the place where it will fall, and on the speed of its movement. So, for example, an asteroid with a diameter of about 500 km will lead to the death of all life on Earth, and within a day. The impact force will cause a firestorm that will sweep away all life in its path. In less than a day, a wave of death will circle the planet and destroy all life on it. It is likely that the simplest organisms will survive and start anew the process of evolution on Earth.
An asteroid with a smaller diameter, when falling into the ocean, can cause a giant tsunami up to 100 meters high. Such a wave can wash away kilometers of the coastal zone from the face of the planet. Such a tsunami, among other things, can cause a number of man-made disasters. If the asteroid falls on any continent, then it will immediately destroy a giant part of the land. All life on the planet will perish as a result.
Should we expect such an end of the world? Amy Mainzer, one of the employees of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, claims that hundreds of asteroids are currently orbiting the Earth, capable of destroying all life on the planet. The chances of a planet colliding with an asteroid, according to calculations, are now small. However, one cannot be completely sure of this, since the cosmos is completely unpredictable. Perhaps a dangerous asteroid is flying towards the Earth at this very moment. Technologies are now developing quite rapidly, however, despite this, there is still no system that could give accurate information regarding the movement of all space bodies. But to imagine the full power of the potential danger, it is enough to look at the location of the asteroid belt relative to our planet.
Mars is closest to the belt. At the moment, there is a lot of evidence that there was once life on this planet, but for unknown reasons, it died. The most likely version of death is the fall of an asteroid. The powerful wave formed during the impact destroyed all life. The next victim may well be the Earth, as it is quite close to the asteroid belt.
Scientists such as Morrison and Chapman argue that once every 500 thousand years a global catastrophe occurs on the planet due to the fall of asteroids. According to statistics, asteroids as small as 10 kilometers fall every 100 million years. They leave almost no chance for humanity and the animal world to survive. Scientists believe that if such a collision occurs in our time, all of humanity will perish. According to experts, the biggest threat comes from medium-sized celestial bodies. According to experts, over 500 thousand years, more than a billion people died as a result of the falls of such bodies. The earth was constantly bombarded by space.
Currently, according to scientists, the most dangerous for our planet are such asteroids as the asteroid YU 55, Eros, Vesta and Apophis. The fact that there is a real threat from outer space was only discussed when the asteroid Apophis was discovered. Its diameter is approximately 270 meters, and its weight is about 27 million tons. The collision of this asteroid with the Earth, according to the latest data, is possible in 2036. Even if it does not fall to Earth, it can cause significant damage to space technology. It will approach the Earth at a distance of 30-35 thousand kilometers, and it is at this altitude that most of the spacecraft operate. Apophis is currently considered the first among potentially dangerous celestial bodies. In 2013, it will fly relatively close to our planet and scientists will be able to see the true nature of the threat and determine whether it is possible to somehow prevent a catastrophe.
Russian scientists did not wait until 2013 and created a group to decide what to do if it turns out that the collision of Apophis with the Earth does happen. The approach of the asteroid in 2029 to the Earth will change its orbit, for this reason, predictions about the subsequent direction of movement are very uncertain without more data. After hitting the Earth's surface an asteroid, according to preliminary estimates, there will be a powerful explosion of 200 megatons.
Also, the asteroid 2005 YU 55 is constantly approaching the Earth with a certain frequency. In November 2011, it flew past our planet at a dangerously close distance. And since then, it has been considered one of the most dangerous asteroids. The largest asteroid in the belt is Vesta, which is visible to the naked eye from Earth. This is explained by its ability to approach the planet at a distance of only 170 million kilometers. And there are a lot of such potentially dangerous asteroids.
But, despite this, astronomers currently do not see any serious danger for the Earth from asteroids. But, as mentioned earlier, space is unpredictable, so potentially dangerous objects are constantly monitored. For these purposes, especially powerful space telescopes with especially sensitive optics are being developed. Without them, it is quite difficult to spot asteroids, as they reflect light rather than emit it.
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