Most of the largest earthquakes follow the same scenario: rigid plate structures, consisting of the earth's crust and mantle, move by colliding with each other. In total, there are 7 largest plates in the world: Antarctic, Eurasian, Indo-Australian, North American, Pacific and South American.
Over the past two billion years, the movement of the plates has accelerated significantly, which, accordingly, increased the chances of such a catastrophe. On the other hand, based on studies of the movement of tectonic plates, scientists can, albeit approximately, predict the appearance of the next major earthquake. Based on publicly available data, we have estimated a list of cities where the likelihood of such an event is very high right now.
San Francisco
A powerful earthquake with an epicenter in the Santa Cruz Mountains, about a hundred kilometers from the city of San Francisco, is just around the corner. More specifically, over the next couple of years. However, most of the inhabitants of the City by the Bay prepared for the catastrophe, having stocked up for the future with medicines, drinking water and food. In turn, the city authorities are busy with the fact that they urgently carry out work to strengthen buildings.
Fremantle
Fremantle is a port city located on the west coast of Australia. According to seismological research by specialists from the University of Sydney, from the end of 2016 to 2024, a strong earthquake of about 6 on the Richter scale is expected there. However, the main danger is that the shock could occur at the bottom of the ocean near the city, causing a tsunami.
Tokyo
According to experts, a major earthquake with an epicenter in the Japanese capital with a probability of 75% can occur at any time within the next 30 years. According to the model created by scientists, about 23 thousand people will become a victim of the disaster and over 600 thousand buildings will be destroyed. In addition to improving the seismic resistance of buildings and demolishing old structures, the Tokyo administration will introduce non-combustible building materials. The 1995 Kobe earthquake showed the Japanese that people are more likely to fall victim not to collapsed buildings, but to post-disaster fires.
Los Angeles
Earthquakes in the City of Angels happen quite often, but there have been no truly large ones for more than a century. The more gloomy is the forecast presented by seismologists and geologists from the US Geological Society. Based on the analysis of soils and tectonic plates under central California, scientists concluded that before 2037 an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 could occur here. A push of such force, under certain circumstances, can turn a city into ruins.
Panama
Over the next few years, a powerful earthquake, with a power of more than 8.5 on the Richter scale, will occur in the area of the Isthmus of Panama. These conclusions were made by specialists from the University of San Diego, after they conducted seismological studies of faults adjacent to the Panama Canal. The action of an earthquake of truly catastrophic proportions will be felt by the inhabitants of both Americas. And most of all, of course, the capital of the republic, Panama, where about 1.5 million people live, will suffer.
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
A strong earthquake in the medium term, that is, in the next 4-5 years, will occur in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. Such data were reported in the seismology department of the Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth. In connection with this forecast, work is underway to strengthen buildings in Kamchatka, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations checks the seismic resistance of buildings. In addition, a network of stations was organized to monitor the symptoms of an approaching earthquake: high-frequency fluctuations in the earth's crust, water levels in wells, fluctuations in magnetic fields.
Grozny
According to the same department of seismology, a major earthquake in the period from 2017 to 2036. may occur in the North Caucasus, on the border of Chechnya and Dagestan. In contrast to the situation in Kamchatka, no work is being carried out to reduce the possible damage from earthquakes, which can lead to a greater number of human casualties than if such work were carried out.
New York
New research results by American seismologists from Columbia University indicate a high seismic hazard at the present time in the vicinity of New York. The magnitude of the earthquake could reach five points, which could lead to the complete destruction of old buildings in the city. Another cause for concern was the nuclear power plant, located right at the intersection of two faults, ie. in an extremely dangerous region. Its destruction could make New York a second Chernobyl.
Banda Aceh
Indonesia is located in the most seismically active zone of the planet, and therefore you will not surprise anyone here with earthquakes. In particular, the island of Sumatra, constantly turns out to be almost right at the epicenter of tremors. An exception will not be a new earthquake predicted by seismologists, with an epicenter 28 km from the city of Banda Aceh, which will occur in the next six months.
Bucharest
The strongest earthquake in Romania can be provoked by blasting in shale rocks carried out in the Carpathian Mountains. Geophysicists from the Romanian National Institute report that the epicenter of the future earthquake will be in the same place, at a depth of 40 kilometers. The fact is that work to search for shale gas in these layers of the earth can cause displacements of the earth's crust and, as a result, earthquakes.
An increase in magnitude by 1.0 corresponds to an increase in the amplitude of oscillations by 10 times and an increase in energy by about 32 times (1). Accordingly, 32 earthquakes of magnitude 7 are equal to an earthquake of magnitude 8 (in terms of energy in joules).
Earthquake data for the United States is taken from the site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ear... .
I was interested to see the increase in the number of earthquakes and the increase in energy.
The magnitude is calculated using the formula:
M = 2/3 * (lg E - 4.8),
where E is the earthquake energy in joules (1).
Accordingly, the energy of the earthquake:
E = 10^(3*M/2+4.8).
The most interesting zones in the USA:
Cascadia zone in Washington and Oregon
California Fault (San Andreas Fault, Long Valley Supervolcano)
Oklahoma Fault
Supervolcano Yellowstone in Wyoming
Oklahoma Fault
Data of all earthquakes on the Oklahoma Fault for the period 2001-2016:
The number of earthquakes has been on the rise since 2006. A strong increase in the energy and number of earthquakes began in 2009.
Earthquake data:
November is the most active month in terms of energy and earthquakes.
During 2001-2015, 8206 earthquakes occurred on the Oklahoma Fault, with a total energy of 4.2249E + 13 joules.
Cascadia zone
The area of earthquake statistics is shown in this picture:
Data of all earthquakes in the Cascadia zone for the period 2001-2016:
Energy drops after peaking in 2005. Since 13, a sharp increase in the number of earthquakes.
Earthquake data by months for the period from 2001-2015:
The peak of energy falls on the month of February.
Supervolcano Yellowstone
The area of earthquake statistics is shown in this picture (150 km radius from the volcano calcadera):
Data of all earthquakes (within a radius of 150 km from the Calcadera) for the period 2001-2016:
Since 13, a sharp increase in the number of earthquakes. The energy of earthquakes is falling.
Earthquake data (within a radius of 150 km from the Calcadera) by months for the period from 2001-2015:
The peak of energy is in March and December.
California Fault
The area of earthquake statistics is shown in this picture:
Earthquake data (magnitude >2) for the period 2001-2016:
Decline in energy and increase in the number of earthquakes on the California fault.
Earthquake data (magnitude >2) by months for the period from 2001-2015:
The highest activity of released energy falls on February.
General statistics for the USA
The area of earthquake statistics is shown in this picture:
Specially expanded the area on the map to capture the Cascadia zone.
Data for 2015
In total, in 2015, 61,965 earthquakes occurred in the United States with a total energy of 1.00786E + 15 joules. Of these, 8753 earthquakes of magnitude > 2 with a total energy of 9.18E + 14 (10 atomic bombs as powerful as Nagasaki were dropped).
Data for 2016 year for all earthquakes in the USA:
The number of earthquakes and energies (according to the site) is less than last year for the same period.
Earthquake data magnitude > 2 for the period 2001-2016:
Earthquake data magnitude > 2 by months for the period from 2001-2016:
2005 and 2010 kicked up June.
The total energy from 2001 to 2016 with magnitude >2 is 2.33E+16 (265 atomic bombs were dropped on Nagasaki).
In 2016, the number of earthquakes and their energy is less than in the previous year of the same period.
The energy of earthquakes is growing, this can be seen from the trend line, although at the moment there is a decline. If the trend continues, there should be a surge.
Earthquakes are on the rise, faster than energy. Since the early 2000s and over the past 2 years, the number of earthquakes has quadrupled.
Please note that since 2010 there has been a decline in energy and an increase in the number of earthquakes. This trend continues in 2016.
The greatest activity occurs in April and August.
Most of the energy is released in the Cascadia zone (8.72077E+15) and on the California Fault (7.07154E+15). Then comes the Oklahoma Fault (4.2249E+13) and the Yellowstone Fault (9.18929E+12).
Compare the Cascadia zone and Yellowstone.
Scientific technology in recent decades has reached such a level that most natural disasters can be predicted in advance. Unfortunately, catastrophes continue to happen in our time, even if they lead to fewer victims than before. People will never be able to completely take control of nature, therefore, phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes will annoy our descendants as well. Let's try to look into the future and find out what natural disasters can happen in the next 50-100 years.
Wildfires in the US (until 2050)
Wildfires in the US will happen much more oftenA team of environmentalists from the Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences made a disappointing forecast for the near future. According to them, by 2050, wildfire seasons in the United States and Canada will last about 3 weeks longer than today, and the fires themselves will become several times more powerful and destructive.
The American Forest Service agrees with this prediction. They also stated that between 1999 and 2015, the area of land affected by severe forest fires each year almost tripled from 900,000 hectares to 2.6 million hectares.
Experts from the Harvard School of Applied Engineering argue that the reason for the increase in the frequency of forest fires is the gradual climate change on our planet, in particular, the increase in air temperature.
They predict that within 10 to 15 years there will be 40,000 to 50,000 wildfires in the United States each year. Because of this, many parts of the country will turn into a real hell.
Megaquake in Chile (until 2065)
Chile could be hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake in the next 50 years In early April 2014, a powerful 8-magnitude earthquake hit Chile. Its epicenter was located 97 kilometers north of the 200,000-strong city of Iquique. The natural phenomenon caused landslides and tsunamis. Unfortunately, the forecast of scientists made after studying the consequences of the disaster did not reassure the inhabitants of the South American country, but made them seriously fear about their future. Experts say that there is a fairly high probability that Chile will suffer from an even more devastating earthquake over the next decades.
The earthquake in Iquique described above occurred in the subduction zone of the South American lithospheric plate and the Nazca plate. It is located in the so-called volcanic ring of fire of the Pacific Ocean, where more than 75% of all currently active volcanoes on Earth are concentrated. It is not difficult to explain such unevenness: when some tectonic plate sinks under another (this is exactly what happens in the indicated zone of the Pacific Ocean), a strong tension is formed. It is capable of causing a surge of seismic activity with any release.
This is interesting: Scientists consider last year's earthquake near the city of Iquique a "mega-earthquake." It was caused by an incomplete release of stress (by about 33%) in the subduction region. In essence, this means that the next earthquake will be an order of magnitude more powerful. And it could start at any second.
9-magnitude earthquake in Japan (2017)
Another 9-magnitude earthquake could hit Japan Note that an earthquake of this magnitude happened in Japan relatively recently - in March 2011. Its epicenter was 370 kilometers northeast of the capital, Tokyo. The unrest of the ocean waters created a nine-meter tsunami that flooded the Sendai airport. Dr. Kimura says that this earthquake was predicted by him back in 2007. But members of the Pacific Science Association, for unknown reasons, refused to take his statement seriously and to consider the evidence he provided.
Masaki Kimura can even name the location where the next magnitude 9 earthquake will occur. According to him, this time an unenviable fate awaits the inhabitants of the Izu Islands, 100-350 kilometers distant from Tokyo. The cataclysm predicted by him, just like the earthquake off the east coast of the island of Honshu, will lead to a devastating tsunami.
Interesting: The Izu Islands are currently part of the Fuji-Hakone-Izu National Park. The local landscapes are truly magnificent, and tens of thousands of Tokyo residents regularly come to enjoy them. They also attract water sports enthusiasts from all over the world. It is sad to think that such magnificent places in the coming years may be destroyed by the will of mother nature.
Fujiyama volcano eruption in Japan (until 2053)
If Mount Fuji erupts, Tokyo will be covered in ash The earthquake off the coast of Honshu, mentioned in the previous section, provoked manifestations of seismic activity from twenty active Japanese volcanoes at once (there are 110 in the country in total). Experts suggested that any of them could erupt soon.
Employees of the Japan Meteorological Agency constantly monitor seismic activity and changes in the state of all active volcanoes located in the country. Note that at once 47 volcanoes are currently considered "active". Calculations carried out by scientists show that, on average, at least one powerful eruption occurs in the Land of the Rising Sun every 38 years.
In 2014, a team of French and Japanese experts concluded that Fujiyama volcano would erupt soon in Japan. This forecast caused a wave of panic among millions of Tokyo residents. The fact is that Fujiyama is located less than 100 kilometers from the Japanese capital. If the scientists' assumption turns out to be correct, hundreds of thousands of Tokyo residents will have to be urgently evacuated, as the city will be covered with a layer of volcanic ash.
Earthquake and 10-meter tsunami in Oregon, USA (until 2065)
A 10-meter wave can roll on these shores Members of the Seismic Safety Advisory Committee, based in Oregon, have predicted that a magnitude 8-9 earthquake will hit the region in the next half century. There is no doubt that it will lead to the emergence of at least a 10-meter tsunami.
Experts believe that this catastrophic earthquake will occur due to activity in the Cascadia subduction zone. This is a 1300-kilometer break in the crust, 100 kilometers from the coast of the state. Note that the Cascadia subduction zone is formed by the powerful North American lithospheric plate and the Juan de Fuca plate.
This is interesting: The Great China Earthquake that occurred in Shaanxi province in 1556 is considered the most destructive earthquake in the history of mankind. Then 830 thousand people died - more than from any other cataclysm. Not a single building survived in the city of Huaxiang, more than 50% of local residents died. Twenty-meter dips and cracks appeared in the earth's crust at the epicenter of the earthquake. Even territories remote 500 kilometers from the epicenter were subjected to destruction.
Cities on the US Atlantic coast will be under water (until 2100)
Cities like New York could be flooded In a study conducted in 2011-2012 by John Boon (Professor Emeritus of the Virginia Institute of Marine Sciences), it was found that since 1987, the sea level along the east coast of the United States - from the town of Key West in Florida to Canadian Newfoundland, has been stable increases. And 4-5 times faster than anywhere else on the planet. And in the new millennium, the rate of rising water levels has increased by an order of magnitude.
This fact allowed scientists to make an assumption that, while maintaining the emerging trend, by the middle (in extreme cases, by the end) of the 21st century, most cities located on the Atlantic coast of the United States may go under water. America's largest city, New York, is most at risk. By 2050, sea levels are expected to rise by 0.8 meters. That's enough to flood at least 25% of New York City.
The most powerful tsunami in history will occur in the Caribbean (date unknown)
Florida could be destroyed by a 100-meter tsunami Professor Simon Day (University College of Britain) and PhD Stephen Ward (University of California) suggest that the volcano Cumbre Vieja, located in the Canary Islands, will soon begin to erupt. Unfortunately, they do not undertake to predict the exact date. As a result of the earthquake, the most powerful tsunami in the modern history of mankind is formed. Day and Ward believe that the last eruption of Cumbre Vieja was so destructive that a rupture occurred in the structure of the volcano. Because of him, the western side of Cumbre Vieja became "particularly unstable".
This is interesting: In the event of a repeated eruption of this volcano, its entire western part will collapse, turning into a giant landslide. He will crash into the sea and raise a monstrous wave of unprecedented height. According to Simon Day and Stephen Ward, it will reach 100 meters, and the speed of the tsunami will be 820 kilometers per hour. Thus, in less than 9 hours after its appearance, a gigantic wave will reach the coast of Florida and crash against it with a roar.
Scientists say that this tsunami will affect not only Florida, but all the countries of the Caribbean. The scale of destruction and the number of casualties can be horrendous.
Mega earthquake in California, USA (until 2045)
San Francisco could be destroyed by a magnitude 9 earthquake Experts from the United States Geological Survey said that in the next three decades, the state of California will suffer from a mega-earthquake with a magnitude of 8-9. Its cause will be the San Andreas fault, passing between two massive tectonic plates - the Pacific and North American. The length of this fault exceeds 1300 kilometers, it runs along the entire coast of California.
According to the forecasts of scientists from the US Geological Survey, an 8-point earthquake will cover all of California and even reach Mexico. . The estimated speed of the shock waves generated during the earthquake will exceed 11 thousand kilometers per hour. Dozens of major freeways and thousands of buildings will be damaged.
This is interesting: The city of San Francisco is most at risk. It is closest to the alleged epicenter of the earthquake. Recall that in 1906, San Francisco had already suffered from an earthquake with a power of 7.7 points. Almost 5,000 people died then, and 300,000 residents of the city were left without a roof over their heads. In our time, the consequences would be even more catastrophic, as hundreds of skyscrapers have appeared in San Francisco that will definitely not withstand an earthquake of magnitude 8 or higher.
Powerful geomagnetic storm (until 2025)
Storm on the Sun could destroy all electronics on Earth In early July 2012, scientists recorded a powerful burst of solar activity. Then the coronal mass ejection crossed the Earth's orbit.
For reference: a coronal mass ejection is the ejection of a huge cloud (weighing several billion tons) of magnetized plasma from the solar corona, capable of destroying all electronic devices on our planet without exception in a fraction of a second. CMEs most often occur during geomagnetic storms, also accompanied by powerful solar flares and strong ultraviolet radiation. High-energy particles can easily destroy the most important electronic components of satellites orbiting our planet. A coronal mass ejection that occurred on the Sun in July 2012 hit the Stereo A space station. He passed by the Earth only by a happy coincidence.
But Pete Riley, an employee of the research company Predictive Science, is confident that another powerful geomagnetic storm can again occur on the surface of the Sun within the next decade, which will affect our planet. He estimates the probability of this event at 12%. If his prediction comes true, mobile phones, GPS navigators, radios, satellite communications and many other electronic devices will not work well in all corners of the planet. With enough flash power, power surges can occur in the power grids, due to which the entire Earth will be left without light for a while. The National Research Council of the United States calculated that we could fully recover from the consequences of such a disaster within four to eight years.
If the predictions of scientists about the disasters described above come true, thousands of people will die. But there is a more serious danger that calls into question the existence of the entire human civilization. Almost every month, scientists discover a new asteroid that could collide with our planet. The technologies by which it would be possible to prevent such catastrophes do not yet exist. Recall that about 65 million years ago, the fall of an asteroid led to the extinction of the dinosaurs that dominated the planet. The cosmic body that became fatal for the lizards, according to experts, had only a 10-kilometer diameter ... For comparison: the diameter of the Earth is almost 13 thousand kilometers.
A series of tremors have been recorded in the United States that could cause a 9.3 magnitude earthquake, which in turn could trigger a tsunami on the American west coast.
Ten small earthquakes have been recorded in the California region over the past five days.
The last earthquake was recorded yesterday in the southwestern United States, near the Yucca Valley, the magnitude of which was small and equal to 3.6 points, according to the American Geological Survey (USGS).
The tremors began at 10 am, at a depth of about 2 km, according to a US government research organization.
On average, 10 earthquakes of magnitude 3 or more occur in the southwestern United States every day.
American emergency services are preparing for a possible 9-magnitude Cascade earthquake. They are now completing emergency work following a 5.2 magnitude earthquake that hit the old Borrego Springs airport in San Diego on Friday.
The earthquake caused a total of about 200 tremors, some of them more than 3 points on the Richter scale. The aftershocks began from the city of Santa Barbara and lasted to the Mexican border.
Caltech professor Egil Hauksson said:
The 5.2 magnitude earthquake was one of the strongest in recent times. Tremors can increase their power and it is not known what to expect next.
A California spokesman said:
The coming earthquake "Cascade" can be very powerful, and exceed the mark of 9 points, which will cause catastrophic consequences.
US Geological Survey scientists looked at computer graphics and said that a mantle rupture under the San Andreas in California could trigger an earthquake of magnitude 8.3.
New disaster?
In 1906, a catastrophic 7.9 earthquake hit San Francisco, killing thousands of Americans.
The Cascade can be up to 60 miles long, from the Pacific coast of Northern California to Vancouver. Along the way, the Cascade will shake up big cities such as Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, which are home to millions of people.
An earthquake with a magnitude of 9.3 is capable of generating large tsunami waves. If this happens, then the tsunami waves could be much more powerful than in Japan in 2011, when the element took the lives of thousands of people and destroyed many infrastructure facilities.
Scientists say the United States is not capable of dealing with such a natural disaster on its own, and it will take most North Americans by surprise.
Hello dear reader! I am glad to see you on the blog, the author of which is me, Vladimir Raichev. And today I want to tell you about the most powerful earthquake. This earthquake has not happened yet, but scientists are already predicting its occurrence.
Friends, I recommend that you read about the most destructive earthquakes in the history of mankind, which I wrote about in this article. But scientists say the worst earthquake is yet to come.
As a result of this natural disaster, the land will move more than 10 meters, and the rivers will begin to change their course.
A powerful earthquake and large floods threaten Bangladesh and India. More than 140 million people are at risk, geophysicists at Columbia University warn. Scientists explored tectonic plate boundaries in Bangladesh. They argue that geophysical stresses in this region have been increasing for more than 400 years.
Scientists warn that Bangladesh and India are threatened by an earthquake measuring 9 (maybe even much more) on the Richter scale. As a result, the land will move more than ten meters, and the rivers will change the direction of the flow, which will result in gigantic floods in the most densely populated region of the world.
When the earthquake will happen
Scholars acknowledge, however, that it is impossible to predict when disaster will come:
“We don't know how long it takes for the tectonic plates to unload, because we don't know exactly how much time has passed since the last earthquake. It can be a very short time, the next decades or even years, but it can happen within the next 500 years, the scientists admit.
Where else can an earthquake occur?
Experts say that a similar threat appears on the other side of our globe. Stresses in the San Andreas fault, passing through California, are also constantly increasing. Geophysicists are convinced that 99% of the earthquake in this region will occur within the next 15-30 years, and its strength will reach 7 points.
Just imagine: an earthquake of 9 points! It's just deadly for India and Bengladesh. When we were in Goa, I noticed that even in this relatively wealthy state of India there is no seismic protection for buildings. Roughly speaking, a powerful earthquake will simply wipe this beautiful country off the face of the Earth.
For today, I'll probably finish scaring you. I hope that nothing bad will happen to our wonderful planet. Subscribe to blog updates so as not to miss anything interesting, share this article with your friends on social networks. Until we meet again, bye bye.
