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In early January, the British bank HSBC published the report “The World in 2050”(World in 2050), which presented the results of a study of national economies. The predicted picture of the future is curious enough: China predictably overtakes the United States, Egypt, the Philippines and Indonesia are among the twenty richest countries, and a number of sub-Saharan African countries are showing enviable economic growth. Belarus also got into the presented top 100 countries of the world.

The bank's experts analyzed the fundamental factors that determine the ability of countries to make an economic breakthrough: such as per capita income, demography, the level of development of the legislative framework, democracy, education, and predicted the possible growth of their GDP until 2050. The forecast is based on the optimistic assumption that policy makers will continue to work to resolve economic problems, avoid military conflicts, and create conditions for the development of global trade and capital inflows.

Opinion of economic optimists

According to the study, significant growth will be demonstrated by the Philippines, whose GDP will grow by more than 15 times. They will take 16th place in the ranking of the strongest economies in the world, rising up as much as 27 points.

Only one line behind it will be another "Asian tiger" - Indonesia. She will jump to 17th place from 21st.

The company "South American jaguars" will replenish Peru. It is predicted to grow almost 10 times in the economy, and 26th in the overall ranking, where it falls, having risen by 20 positions.

A happy future is predicted for revolutionary Egypt. Although its population should increase from its current 84 million to 130 million, by 2050 it could rank 20th in terms of GDP. At the same time, rushing up immediately by 15 points.

In addition to Egypt, a number of other states of the Black Continent predict serious success in the economic field, which allows us to admit the emergence of the phenomenon of "African lions". Algeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria can fall into the category of those. At the same time, their population will also grow rapidly. Nigeria will become the 4th country in the world in terms of population, second only to India, China and the United States. And Tanzania will show perhaps the best results, both in economic indicators and in childbearing: an 18-fold growth in the economy, a rise of 34 lines up to 53 places with a triple growth in population.

The countries of Europe over the next 40 years will also continue to grow, but at a much less significant pace. They will retain their leading role, but they will have to face serious demographic problems, in particular, with a reduction in the working-age population. In some cases - up to 30%. Worst of all will be the Scandinavian countries, which will move at least 20 positions down. It is interesting that almost the Golden Age is predicted for Ukraine! Thanks to its educational system and the development of the legislative framework, it will rise to 40th place, jumping over 19 positions, while its population will be reduced to an estimated 36 million from today's 45.

According to HSBC experts, in 2050 Belarus will rank 76th among the largest economies in the world. Its GDP will grow approximately 5 times and will amount to $122 billion in 2000 prices against $25 billion in 2010 (also in 2000 prices). Relative to other countries, the position of Belarus will practically not change - it will only move down 2 positions. Actual per capita income will increase 7 times. According to this indicator, our country will take 57th place instead of 65th in 2010. At the same time, the population of the country will be reduced to 8 million. When calculating the model, the initial parameter "rule of law", meaning the attractiveness of the investment climate based on the level of law enforcement agencies, compliance with contracts and property rights, was set equal to 0.7 (the level of India, Kazakhstan, Italy, Hungary , Russia, Ukraine, Israel), and the "democratic index" turned out to be equal to ... zero (the level of China, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Syria).

An interesting fact: explaining the results of the study, its authors drew attention to the fact that "too much democracy is not necessarily good for economic growth." Under certain circumstances, she becomes his brake. In particular, the study notes that with a very high level of democracy, the desire for income redistribution becomes the dominant force, which begins to restrain entrepreneurial activity. In addition, democratic governments seek to meet the needs of the voters in their decision-making, which can interfere with long-term investments.

		Size of economy in			Income per capita in				Population
		2010 Bn Constant 2000 USD	2050 Bn Constant 2000 USD	Change in rank	2010 Constant 2000 USD	Rank	2050** Constant 2000 USD	Rank	2010 Mn	2050 Mn
1	China*	3,511	25,334	2	2,579	63	17,759	54	1,362	1,426
2	United States	11,548	22,270	-1	36,354	6	55,134	8	318	404
3	India	960	8,165	5	790	88	5,060	86	1,214	1,614
4	Japan	5,008	6,429	-2	39,435	3	63,244	4	127	102
5	Germany	2,058	3,714	-1	25,083	18	52,683	10	82	71
6	United Kingdom	1,711	3,576	-1	27,646	11	49,412	14	62	72
7	Brazil	921	2,960	2	4,711	52	13,547	61	195	219
8	Mexico	688	2,810	5	6,217	42	21,793	47	111	129
9	France	1,496	2,750	-3	23,881	20	40,643	21	63	68
10	Canada	892	2,287	0	26,335	15	51,485	12	34	44
11	Italy	1,124	2,194	-4	18,703	23	38,445	23	60	57
12	Turkey	385	2,149	6	5,088	49	22,063	46	76	97
13	South Korea	798	2,056	-2	16,463	25	46,657	17	49	44
14	Spain	711	1,954	-2	15,699	26	38,111	24	45	51
15	Russia	412	1,878	2	2,934	58	16,174	56	140	116
16	Philippines	112	1,688	27	1,215	83	10,893	72	93	155
17	Indonesia	274	1,502	4	1,178	85	5,215	85	233	288
18	Australia	565	1,480	-4	26,244	16	51,523	11	22	29
19	Argentina	428	1,477	-2	10,517	33	29,001	38	41	51
20	Egypt	160	1,165	15	3,002	57	8,996	76	84	130
21	Malaysia	146	1,160	17	5,224	47	29,247	37	28	40
22	Saudi Arabia	258	1,128	1	9,833	34	25,845	43	26	44
23	Thailand	187	856	6	2,744	61	11,674	68	68	73
24	Netherlands	439	798	-9	26,376	14	45,839	18	17	17
25	Poland	250	786	-1	6,563	39	24,547	45	38	32
26	Peru	85	735	20	2,913	59	18,940	53	29	39
27	Iran	161	732	7	2,138	72	7,547	81	75	97
28	Colombia	142	725	12	3,052	56	11,530	69	46	63
29	Switzerland	294	711	-9	38,739	4	83,559	3	8	9
30	Pakistan	111	675	14	657	92	2,455	91	174	275
31	Bangladesh	78	673	17	482	95	3,461	89	149	194
32	Chile	103	592	12	6,083	43	29,513	36	17	20
33	Venezuela	158	558	2	5,438	46	13,268	63	29	42
34	Algeria	76	538	14	2,190	70	11,566	70	35	47
35	South Africa	187	529	-8	3,710	54	9,308	75	50	57
36	Austria	222	520	-11	26,455	13	61,124	6	8	9
37	Nigeria	78	515	9	506	94	1,323	98	158	390
38	Sweden	295	507	-20	31,778	8	47,941	15	9	11
39	Belgium	265	481	-18	24,758	19	41,842	20	11	11
40	Ukraine	45	462	19	987	86	12,818	65	45	36
41	Vietnam	59	451	11	674	91	4,335	88	88	104
42	Singapore	165	441	-11	34,110	7	84,405	2	5	5
43	Greece	161	424	-11	14,382	29	38,756	22	11	11
44	Israel	168	402	-14	21,806	22	37,731	25	7	11
45	Ireland	147	386	-9	27,965	10	61,363	5	5	6
46	Romania	56	377	9	2,596	62	20,357	51	21	19
47	United Arab Emirates	118	360	-6	25,607	17	29,651	35	8	12
48	Norway	199	352	-22	40,933	2	59,234	7	5	6
49	Czech Republic	76	342	0	7,225	38	32,153	32	10	11
50	Portugal	123	336	-10	11,588	31	35,863	28	11	9
51	Uzbekistan	25	314	22	893	87	8,859	77	27	35
52	Hungary	58	295	1	5,833	44	31,966	33	10	9
53	Tanzania	16	288	34	382	97	2,085	92	45	138
54	Kazakhstan	38	287	7	2,376	68	13,520	62	16	21
55	Kuwait	61	280	-4	23,072	21	54,183	9	3	5
56	Morocco	58	279	-2	1,781	75	7,110	82	32	39
57	Finland	145	270	-19	27,151	12	49,643	13	5	5
58	Denmark	172	265	-29	31,418	9	47,743	16	5	6
59	Libya	49	230	-2	7,692	37	26,182	42	6	9
60	New Zealand	64	214	-10	14,939	28	37,705	26	4	6
61	Dominican Republic	37	212	1	3,697	55	16,406	55	10	13
62	Ecuador	24	206	14	1,771	76	10,546	73	14	20
63	Ethiopia	17	196	23	201	100	1,352	97	83	145
64	Syria	28	181	2	1,397	78	5,470	84	20	33
65	Sri Lanka	25	175	7	1,233	81	7,558	80	21	23
66	Azerbaijan	20	168	14	2,303	69	14,482	59	9	12
67	Kenya	18	163	16	452	96	1,683	95	41	97
68	Tunisia	29	160	-3	2,805	60	12,686	66	10	13
69	Guatemala	26	152	1	1,858	73	4,826	87	14	32
70	lebanon	27	148	-2	6,342	41	31,659	34	4	5
71	Bolivia	12	145	25	1,192	84	8,652	78	10	17
72	Slovak Republic	44	145	-12	8,042	36	27,639	39	5	5
73	Oman	30	138	-10	10,779	32	36,832	27	3	4
74	Angola	24	134	1	1,313	80	3,170	90	19	42
75	Costa Rica	23	124	3	5,043	50	20,588	50	5	6
76	Belarus	25	122	-2	2,556	65	15,207	57	10	8
77	Cuba	49	121	-19	4,370	53	12,202	67	11	10
78	Iraq	23	117	-1	743	89	1,410	96	32	83
79	Qatar	54	112	-23	38,466	5	43,027	19	2	3
80	Jordan	15	112	9	2,497	67	11,317	71	6	10
81	Uganda	12	111	14	366	98	1,179	99	33	94
82	Panama	20	110	-1	5,732	45	21,423	48	4	5
83	Croatia	28	105	-16	6,396	40	27,091	41	4	4
84	El Salvador	16	104	4	2,566	64	13,729	60	6	8
85	Ghana	8	100	22	343	99	2,035	94	24	49
86	Paraguay	9	99	17	1,432	77	9,587	74	6	10
87	Turkmenistan	9	97	15	1,827	74	14,659	58	5	7
88	Uruguay	30	93	-24	8,942	35	25,482	44	3	4
89	Honduras	10	82	11	1,380	79	6,337	83	8	13
90	Cameroon	14	79	1	694	90	2,048	93	20	38
91	Serbia	9	75	13	1,229	82	8,565	79	10	9
92	Bulgaria	19	72	-10	2,542	66	13,154	64	7	5
93	Luxembourg	26	68	-24	52,388	1	96,592	1	1	1
94	Slovenia	26	66	-23	12,577	30	32,971	31	2	2
95	Bahrain	13	61	-3	16,968	24	33,910	29	1	2
96	Lithuania	17	59	-12	5,154	48	20,955	49	3	3
97	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	56	10	2,162	71	18,961	52	4	3
98	Latvia	11	52	0	4,973	51	27,143	40	2	2
99	Yemen	13	45	-8	565	93	731	100	24	62
100	Cyprus	12	45	-7	15,510	27	33,337	30	1	1

The point of view of climate pessimists

This is not the first time HSBC has presented such a report. Last year's edition of "The World in 2050" included a description of the fate of only 30 countries. Now their number has grown to 100. However, such studies are traditionally criticized by futurologists, who see them only as an extrapolation of existing technological and economic trends. At the same time, a number of other factors remain unaccounted for. While financial experts of all stripes at the beginning of 2011 read the report of experts from HSBC, predicting stability and prosperity for the world, the minds of Western readers were increasingly captured by a completely different scenario.

It was proposed by the geographer of the Los Angeles University of California, Professor Lawrence Smith, who published the book The New North: the World in 2050 at the end of 2010. For many years he studied the nature of the Arctic. He is best known in scientific circles for identifying the role of climate change in the disappearance of more than a thousand Arctic lakes during the last quarter of the 20th century. Discover magazine ranked Smith's discoveries among the top 100 most significant scientific discoveries of 2005. Therefore, it is not surprising that in his book he pays the first attention not to the economy, but to the climate. He considers global warming to be the main catalyst for future changes.

Lawrence Smith believes that by 2050, due to global warming, the average annual temperature in the northern latitudes will increase by 7 degrees. Rising temperatures will be accompanied by violent storms and floods, which will flood many coastal areas of the oceans. But a far greater threat will be drought, leading to a reduction in fresh water and arable land. The white civilized world will stretch to the North, and from the south they will be propped up by "new barbarians" from Africa and South America. It's time for mass migrations. At the same time, the United States of America will get hard: Florida and all the largest cities on the west coast will be flooded, and a desert will appear in place of California.

Lawrence Smith predicts the most happy fate for the northern regions. The Arctic Ocean along the coasts of Eurasia and North America will be cleared of ice, and it will become possible to extract minerals lying on its bottom. First of all, we are talking about oil and natural gas fields. And as a result of the next "Great Migration of Nations" and a significant influx of capital, the Arctic countries will become the richest region on the planet. Perhaps Canada, the Scandinavian countries and Russia will be the biggest beneficiaries. Although the indigenous population of the latter will decrease, the lack of labor resources will be filled by immigrants from Central Asia. Regarding the prospects for Canada, the geographer is more optimistic.

"Canada is growing, and Russia is weakening. The difference is in the approach to immigration. Canada is able to attract highly skilled immigrants. Russia is heading for a real demographic disaster: by 2050 its population will decrease by 17%. Canada values ​​education, labor qualifications and knowledge of the language. In Russia's xenophobia It's a political issue: if a Russian politician says: "We must open the doors to immigrants," he's being crushed," a professor at the University of California said in one of his interviews.

Despite the fact that Lawrence Smith's scenario implies a clear increase in tensions between states along the north-south line, the scientist is still confident that a large-scale war for the resources of the Arctic Ocean can be avoided. Moreover, he believes that the Arctic powers will unite in the "Union of the Nordic countries", build states of "social prosperity" and fence themselves off from the rest of the world. The professor also called this Union "Northern Rome", meaning by it a cultural meaning - as a place of storage of European civilization. All other countries will look at it and envy it, primarily because of its fresh water reserves, which can be sold to other regions.

Other predictions for 2050

Some interesting predictions about the technological aspect of our future were made by the famous American futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil. According to his forecasts, in the near future virtual reality, which includes full visual, auditory and tactile sensations, will allow people on different parts of the Earth to communicate with the absolute effect of presence. Drivers will no longer need to "turn the steering wheel": all roads will be equipped with automatic driving systems. It will be enough for a person to set the final destination - and the car itself will arrive there. From 2029, communication between a person and a computer will already occur through nerve endings. And then you no longer have to drum on the keys - all orders to the computer can be given at a distance, mentally. And by 2050, technology will have advanced so much that then a $1,000 computer will be equal in computing power to "one billion human brains."

Quoting Ray Kurzweil from his article "The Merger of Man and Machine: Are We Heading for The Matrix":

“When we get to 2050, the bulk of our thinking, which, in my opinion, is still synonymous with human civilization, will be non-biological in nature. The non-biological part of our thinking will still be human, because it will be a derivative of biological thinking It will be designed by humans, or by machines built by humans, or by machines built from human brain engineering, or human mind uploads, or from one of many other possible close symbioses between human and machine thinking that we can't even think today."

Artificial intelligence researcher David Levay has predicted that by 2050, marriages between humans and robots will become commonplace.

In March 2006, Professor Jerry Gilmore expressed his belief that ground-based astronomy would be impossible by this year due to pollution from aircraft exhaust trails and climate change.

In 2002, the American physicist John Archibald Wheeler, who coined the terms "black hole" and "wormhole", predicted that in 2050 the most terrible war in the history of mankind would break out, after which this very humanity would understand that all existing social and political systems good for nothing and only lead to strife. As a result, the whole world order will be totally changed.

And the great Isaac Newton went even further. In addition to science, the creator of the theory of universal gravitation also devoted a lot of time to deciphering the messages to humanity hidden in the Bible. Shortly before his death, he wrote in his diary that he had found in the Holy Scriptures an indication of the date of the apocalypse. It is easy to guess that it was about the middle of the XXI century.

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We are already facing many of the things that threaten humanity or make us think in alarm: overpopulation, the consequences of the use of nuclear energy, the gap between the rich and the poor ... But there are also problems that are gradually ripening to face us by the middle of this century. us to our full height.

What will happen to the world in 30 years? It is impossible to say for sure, but the development of science and technology gives us clues. Here are just a few of the potentially big challenges of tomorrow.

HUMAN GENE MODIFICATION

Discussions about a new technology that allows editing human DNA are getting livelier, the voices for and against are getting louder.

The technology was called Crispr (pronounced like the English "crisper", that is, "clearer" - Note. translator), and theoretically it allows you to change DNA in such a way that there will be no triggers for diseases such as cancer, for example.

Looks great, right? Now let's look at the dark side of this discovery from the point of view of ethics.

Won't the application of this technology lead to the pursuit of "designer babies" in which vain (and rich) parents want to invest all their unfulfilled ambitions?

Doesn't this look like eugenics, the selection of "right people" with given intellectual and physical qualities?

While this technology is not so widespread as to be called one of the main problems of today, however, we must be prepared for the fact that by 2050 the questions that are already emerging will sound loud and relevant.

Will we be able to ensure that ethicists are involved in making decisions about this or that experiment to change human DNA in every laboratory, in every university, in every corporation?

"When technology is creating more and more opportunities at such a speed, it's very difficult to find time to reflect on the ethical side of what is being proposed," says Nicholas Agar, professor of ethics at the University of Victoria in Wellington (New Zealand).

"This is not a quick matter, but we will have to decide what exactly makes a person a person and what things it is better not to touch."

INCREASING THE PART OF THE OLDER POPULATION

The population of our planet is not just growing. We also live longer - which is wonderful in itself, but older people need more help from society, and sometimes special care.

The number of those who lived to be a hundred years old will increase by more than 50 times by 2100 - from today's 500 thousand to more than 26 million. The number of states with a large number of people over 65 will grow in the world.

And in the next few decades, we will have to solve the issue of proper care for the elderly (in Japan, the use of robots for this is already planned).

Perhaps laws are needed to allow more immigrants to enter the country in order to somehow cope with the steady aging of the population and the declining birth rate.

DISAPPEARING CITIES

Rising sea levels are causing some cities to gradually disappear - just look at what is happening in Miami.

The climate is changing, and it's not just about floods, like in Texas. Changes in the weather lead to changes in the design of cities. Not to mention special dams, more buildings with a high ground floor will have to be built.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption

But these are all temporary measures. If current climate trends continue, we will have to accept the loss of entire islands, parts of cities and regions below sea level. The economic effect of this will be very serious, and "climate" refugees will become common.

If climate change leads to mass migration, the infrastructure of large cities and the economies of those countries to which the flows of people will flock will face severe problems and, possibly, a real crisis.

THE EVOLUTION OF SOCIAL NETWORKS

Considering that already now most people get news from social networks, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter (or what will replace them by 2050) will not disappear from our lives.

One of them is a world without the right to privacy. This problem is already being felt. Taking away our right to anonymity, social networks give us such new problems as cyberbullying (Internet harassment).

Many public and charitable organizations have already been mobilized to fight Internet trolls, but whether law enforcement agencies and social media companies will be able to cope with this disgusting phenomenon or whether things will only get worse is a big question.

And take the problem of the information diet: if the amount of ubiquitous fake news remains the same, how will this ultimately affect people's views, how will it change their worldview? NEW GEOPOLITICAL FRICTIONS

Last year, we watched the fragile geopolitical balance, which took many decades to achieve, collapse before our eyes. Political stability in the world in the next 30 years is a big question mark.

North Korea launches missiles. Thousands of refugees cross borders to escape war and violence. Hackers interfere with elections in other countries. Nationalist sentiments are growing all over the world. Britain's exit from the EU calls into question the future of this union.

In the chaos that has engulfed the world, the role of ordinary diplomacy, the ordinary ability to talk to each other, is unusually increasing.

TRANSPORT SAFETY

Despite rapid urbanization, high-speed bullet trains and fantastic Hyperloop technology (a vacuum train project developed by Elon Musk - Note. translator), the cars aren't going anywhere. In the next 20-30 years there will be even more of them on the roads.

The technology of an unmanned vehicle is becoming more and more popular, leading players in the world of automotive and high-tech are in a hurry to release cars without a person driving on the streets of cities.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption

But - with or without a person - the number of cars on the roads, according to research, will grow rapidly. For countries such as China, where the middle class is growing, this is becoming a big problem in terms of environment and infrastructure.

So, we have to decide how to ensure road safety, overcome pollution and not turn unmanned vehicles into a new threat to the lives of citizens.

DRYING NATURAL RESOURCES

Technology and gadgets of the 21st century require rare earth components: the average smartphone is made up of more than 60 "ingredients". Natural resources are being depleted at an alarming rate.

It is estimated, for example, that in China, where 90% of rare earths are mined, their reserves will run out in 20 years. And it will be extremely difficult to find an equivalent replacement.

Which begs the question: what about those of us who can't afford to buy these "enhancers"? Will it deepen the chasm of inequality, allowing the rich to get even richer?

But there are also legal and ethical aspects: drinking coffee before an exam is one thing, and an implant or special pills is quite another. We still cannot even imagine all the problems that may arise in connection with the use of artificial "intelligence amplifiers".

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption If you have nothing to feed your family, "mind pills" are not available to you

THE GROWING IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

The famous American futurist Ray Kurzweil made many predictions for the future in his time - some of them are very inspiring, others are frankly disturbing.

One of these predictions says that one day artificial intelligence will surpass human and begin to develop on its own at a monstrous rate, reaching the so-called singularity (the point in time at which machines begin to improve themselves, without the help of anyone - Note. translator).

Not everyone agrees with this forecast, but few deny that artificial intelligence will develop further and further. As with editing human DNA, we need to understand the ethical and societal implications of this as artificial intelligence invades more and more areas of human activity, from healthcare to finance.

To be honest, the implementation of the scenario of the complete destruction of humanity by artificial intelligence is unlikely, but this should not prevent us from understanding: artificial intelligence can change our lives beyond recognition.

It is also possible that certain devices controlled by this intelligence, due to technical problems, can get out of human control. And then there will be a real threat of a global catastrophe - either with the loss of many human lives, or with the loss of millions of dollars.

13.01.2015 22:00

According to many research institutions, 2050 will be the most significant year for our planet, writes Newsweek. “A beautiful round date,” said Kostas Stamoulis, director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

According to many research institutions, 2050 will be the most significant year for our planet, writes Newsweek."A beautiful round date," said Kostas Stamoulis, director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Countless official forecasts are tied to this year, with a cascading effect: if any respected organization ties a specific global study to a particular year, others immediately follow its example.

What do we get as a result? A lot of predictions for 2050, indicating that by the middle of the century life on Earth will change beyond recognition.

Population boom

There are approximately 7 billion people on the planet today. By 2050, the UN predicts that the number will approach 9.6 billion. This is a jump of more than 30%. In other words, the figure is equivalent to adding one more India and China. The consequences, both individual and societal, are not very significant at first glance, but today it is possible to change the future, for example, by making contraceptives universally available.

Population aging

The total elderly population will only increase by mid-century as people are already living longer and birth rates are declining. By 2050, one in six people on Earth will be over the age of 65, and governments will have to find a way to provide for them somehow. As people live longer, they will be more likely to suffer from age-related diseases. The number of people suffering from dementia will triple, cancer - two. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one in three people in the US alone will have diabetes.

Fortunately, medicine is advancing, and by 2050, a number of vaccines will be available that are likely to cure such widespread diseases as malaria, which currently kills more than 2 million people a year, and HIV, which even after 20 years of research is barely vaccinated.

By the middle of the century, medicine will be able to produce medicines from the tobacco plant.

Computers will become a thousand times better and more productive, and much cheaper

According to Ulrich Eberl(Ulrich Eberl) in Life in 2050: How We Create the Future Today, today we are only halfway through the era of advances in computing. Over the past 25 years or so, information technology has gotten 1,000 times better, says Eberl. According to the author's forecasts, these scales will repeat again in the next 25 years.

“We will see another thousandfold increase in computing power, data transfer rate, at the same price that we see today,” says Eberl. “If you spend, say, $500 on a laptop today, by 2050 you will get the same power, performance and quality of computing in a small chip for 50 cents. This means that computers will be everywhere - due to their cheapness. Chips will be implanted in our jackets, robots will walk the streets, and cars will park themselves.”

In fact, computer technology will become so advanced and pervading all areas of human life that it is likely that we will be able to download an electronic version of our brain into some medium and continue to live after bodily death. This will force us to rethink the very concept of being in a philosophical sense.

We need to take recycling seriously

Eberl says that a large number of jumps will occur by 2035, well before the middle of the century. By 2050, the pace of technological innovation will slow down. Innovation efforts will focus on the reality of what will happen when our natural resources are reduced to a critical minimum. On a planet of 9.6 billion people, the struggle for resources will become a serious matter.

These new circumstances, according to Eberl, will force governments to focus on "holistic health" - the relationship between human health and the environment. It is likely that we are talking about reducing consumption.

A growing middle class in countries such as China, Brazil, Russia, India will lead to swollen consumer populations and "very large shortages" of copper, oil and other end materials. “The resources of the Earth are not enough for 9.6 billion people. So it's time for new recycling methods. Reuse of molecules: for example, there is more gold in your smartphone now than in ore from a gold mine.”

The futurist also predicts that recycling technologies will be improved so that the quality of the manufactured product will not be lower even after processing, which is a serious problem for processing in today's conditions. Already today, chemists, such as Michael Braungart and William McDonough, they say that it is quite possible to correct the situation.

Solar energy could become the world's most important source of energy

Converting sunlight into energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. The average cost of solar panels per watt in 1972 was $75. Today's cost is $1, and even that hasn't stopped falling. According to a recent study by the International Energy Agency, by 2050 solar energy will be able to generate 27% of the world's energy, becoming the world's largest source of electricity.

If this happens, then the level of carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 6 billion tons per year, which is about the same as all the current carbon emissions in the US energy sector.

Solving the problem of hunger is real, you just have to want

The more of us there are, the more food and water will be required for survival. The worst effects of climate change will continue to be significant in the future, and the rate of floods and droughts will begin to increase, exacerbating food and water shortages. An increase in population will simultaneously exacerbate climate change, creating a terrible feedback loop.

Last year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that in order to feed a population of 9 billion in 2050, the world will need to increase food production by an average of 60% compared to the current one. If this is not done, we risk serious food shortages that will lead to social upheaval, conflict and civil war. In comparison, over the past 20 years, the production of wheat and rice has grown by less than 1%.

FAO predicts that by 2050 the need for food will result in an additional 70 million hectares being converted to agricultural land, especially in developing countries. But that's not necessarily good.

“In theory, we have a lot of land to grow food,” says Kostas Stamoulis, Director, FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division"But it's also worth taking a realistic look at the threats we face."

About 75% of the land that can be used for agricultural purposes belongs to 35 countries in Africa and Latin America, characterized by fragile ecosystems. "We fear that many of these potential sites will be rendered unusable through deforestation and neglect."

Stamoulis believes that global governments should step in and provide desperate farmers with a viable alternative to farming in places like wetlands or old growth forests, and encourage multinational corporations to adopt sustainable farming practices.

“Small farmers need to be given incentives and have access to places where they can grow food in an environmentally friendly way. We must also take action to prevent food from being grown in unsustainable ways.”

***

Stamoulis remains hopeful that hunger can be avoided by 2050 simply by increasing productivity. Techniques such as "double" and "triple pruning" (growing more than one crop per crop in the same field) have already shown impressive results in parts of India and China. Scientists also know how to prevent the potentially damaging overuse of fertilizers, as well as improve methods for increasing productivity. The problem is the lack of equipment and personnel with the appropriate education.

“We must educate ordinary farmers about these technologies and take actions that can help us meet the challenges of the future. I am optimistic. The future is brighter than it seems."

translatedEgorgalaburda

What worries the entire civilization of the Earth and each person individually? Our future and the future of our children. So what lies in wait for us, what surprises are in store for the future? Some of tomorrow's potentially big issues have been put together by the BBC on a short list of ten.

Human genetic modification

Ridding humanity of terrible genetic abnormalities, terrible diseases such as cancer, for example, sounds very tempting. However, this very attractive medal has a downside.

Won't DNA editing lead to a race for "designer babies" in which vain (and wealthy) parents want to invest all their unfulfilled ambitions? Isn't it reminiscent of eugenics, the selection of "right people" with given intellectual and physical qualities? Disputes about the ethical side of the issue, scientists are already now.

Increasing proportion of the elderly population

The world's population is growing rapidly and aging even faster. According to demographers, by 2100 the number of people who have reached their century will increase by more than 50 times - from today's 500,000 to more than 26 million.

In the next few decades, we will have to solve the issues of proper care for the elderly (in Japan, the use of robots for this is already planned).

Disappearing cities

Climate change, rising sea levels, natural disasters and man-made disasters lead to the fact that some cities are gradually disappearing. If current trends continue, then the infrastructure of large cities and the economies of those countries where people flow will face severe problems and, possibly, a real crisis.

The Internet and social networks, of course, make life easier, but on the other hand, they have given rise to many new problems, previously unknown to mankind, which will only get worse in the future. For example, the lack of the right to privacy. This problem is already being felt. Also, social networks give us such phenomena as cyberbullying (internet harassment) and informational diet (fake news). And what kind of Internet problems we will face in 30 years is even hard to imagine.

New geopolitical tensions

North Korea launches missiles. Thousands of refugees cross the borders. Hackers interfere with elections in other countries. Nationalist sentiments are growing all over the world. Britain's exit from the EU calls into question the future of this union. Political stability in the world in the next 30 years is a big question mark.

Transport Security

The population of the Earth is growing, and the amount of transport used by man is also increasing. Despite new developments in this area (high-speed bullet trains, fantastic Hyperloop technology and drones), there will be more cars on the roads in the next 20-30 years. And this is turning into a big problem in terms of the environment and infrastructure.

Depleting Natural Resources

Natural resources are being depleted at an alarming rate. It is estimated, for example, that in China, where 90% of rare earths are mined, their reserves will run out in 20 years. And it will be extremely difficult to find an equivalent replacement.

Colonization of other planets

Now only state aerospace agencies and billionaires are able to fly into space. However, their availability will grow over time, and with it new problems will arise - space logistics, space security and space diplomacy.

Empowering our brain

This item is simply based on the movie "Fields of Darkness". Magic pills that can activate the brain are already being developed in laboratories around the world. Which begs the question: what about those of us who can't afford to buy these "enhancers"? Will it deepen the chasm of inequality, allowing the rich to get even richer? But there are also legal and ethical aspects of the issue.

And finally: the growing influence of artificial intelligence

Not only Elon Musk calls for extreme caution in the development of AI technologies. Many futurologists and science fiction writers have made disappointing predictions, for example, about how artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence and begin to develop on its own at a monstrous rate, reaching the so-called singularity (the point in time from which machines begin to improve themselves, without the help of anyone ).

Not everyone agrees with such predictions, but it is foolish to deny that artificial intelligence will develop further and further, invading more and more new areas of human activity - from healthcare to finance.

As in the case of editing human DNA, we need to understand what consequences this can have in terms of ethics and society's norms.

A Tech Insider writer asked British futurologist Ian Pearson (known for his 85% predictive accuracy) about the innovations that will soon revolutionize the tech world. We publish a translation of the Tech Insider material with expert answers.

We will be able to observe drone delivery within the next two years.

Source: Google

The main limitation here is legislative regulation rather than technological progress. But according to Pearson, by 2018 drones will find application, for example, in the field of supplying medical supplies for hospitals.

At the same time, the researcher believes that the authorities will not allow drones to spread too widely. So, flying machines will be able to carry only essential cargo, but will not be involved in such mundane activities as pizza delivery.

Long-distance hyperloop travel could be a reality in six years.

Source: Reuters/Steve Marcus

As you know, the hyperloop's high-speed transport system will soon prove itself in action. In May, startup Hyperloop One already conducted a test run of its prototype. The company also entered into an agreement with the Moscow authorities to run one of these trains in Russia.

In five or six years, Pearson expects to see a short-range hyperloop carrying passengers between cities.

It is likely that machines will begin to think like people by 2025.

Source: DNA Films/Film4/Universal Pictures

According to Pearson, it is quite plausible that computers will acquire consciousness by 2025, even earlier - by 2020.

"Google DeepMind hasn't gotten to that level yet, but I'm really sure they're on the right track, and by 2020 their computer could surpass humans and become conscious," the expert says. "This could be the beginning of the end, seriously."

The first human flight to Mars may take place in 2030.

Source: Reuters/ESA

This prediction, in fact, gives Elon Musk ample time to realize his plan to send people to Mars. At Vox's Code Conference in June, Musk announced plans to send astronauts to the Red Planet in 2024 to reach their destination within a year.

“We will see the first people flying to Mars, and the robots will prepare the necessary, for example, create the necessary materials [on Mars - approx. Tech Insider],” Pearson says. “We will have to do this, because you can only take so much [cargo - approx. lane].

In the next 10 years, prostheses could become advanced enough to empower humans.

Source: Omkaar Kotedia

We are already seeing people with high-tech prostheses. Twenty-five-year-old biologist James Young uses artificial arm with built-in flashlight and personal drone. BUT prosthesis French artist acts as a tattoo machine.

According to Pearson, artificial limbs will continue to evolve and reach the point where people will be completely satisfied with the fusion of technology and the body. For example, those who wish will be able to use cybernetic implants to strengthen their own legs.

Within 10 years, clothes can give us superpowers.

Source: Hyundai

The most obvious example, according to Pearson, is the exoskeleton. Recently such suit, designed for lifting weights, developed by Hyundai.

But the futurist also foreshadows other types of advanced clothing like leggings that make walking and running easier. Or a suit, like Spider-Man, made of polymer gels that can increase physical strength.

In 10 years, virtual reality can replace textbooks.

Source: Google

“You could take the students to the scenery of the past and show the battle or other events that took place,” Pearson says. “Things like this are easier to explain if students see them in action rather than on the pages of textbooks.”

Project Google Expeditions already allows students to travel via VR to places like the Great Barrier Reef. In September, the beta version of this application was released.

Smartphones will stop being used by 2025.

According to Pearson, smartphones will become obsolete by 2025 due to the development of augmented reality.

“If you have a smartphone in 2025, you will become a laughingstock,” says the expert.

Within the next decade, augmented reality screens could be pulled out of small bracelets or other jewelry, eliminating the need to carry smartphones. Companies like Magic Leap are preparing AR technologies for the mass market.

Self-driving vehicles could be ubiquitous in 10 years.

Source: Ford

Whether these will be cars or not, according to Pearson, is a debatable issue.

The futurist describes a rental transport system where people could rent "cheap steel boxes" to carry passengers. A capsule-like self-driving system would be more economical than something more complex like self-driving cars.

However, with so many manufacturers dedicated to developing self-driving cars, chances are we'll see the fruits of their labor within a decade.

In the next 20 years, 3D printing could be used to build even more buildings.

Chinese company prints houses at a rate of 10 buildings per day

Architects from all over the world are competing to create the tallest building ever printed.

Winsun said it built 10 homes in China in one day, spending $5,000 each, through printing. A USC professor is working on a giant 3D printer capable of printing complete houses with electrical and water systems.

Pearson believes that, due to urban population growth, the ability to print cheap houses will become even more in demand.

It is likely that people will start using robots for housework and friendships starting in 2030.

“Artificial intelligence and robotics will provide us with more machines to help and communicate, as many people will live alone,” Pearson says. "So communication is one of the main targets for future robots."

Toyota has already announced its plans to produce robots equipped to help people in everyday life.

We can settle in a virtual world like the Matrix by 2045.

Source: The Matrix

According to Pearson, the development of nanotechnology will allow us to connect the brain to a computer and live in a simulation of reality.

"Definitely, it will be possible to create something like the Matrix, if you want," - says the expert. Somewhere in 2045, 2050 it will be possible to connect the human brain to a computer so that people believe that they live in a virtual world.

According to the futurist, this idea echoes Elon Musk's thoughts on neural lace, which the head of Tesla voiced at Vox's Code Conference in Southern California.

Neural lace is a wireless neural interface that could add a digital layer of intelligence to our brain. This is a concept that nanotechnologists are working on.

Humans could become cyborgs by 2045.