All philosophers, prophets and religious thinkers have tried to predict the future since ancient times: Plato, Aristotle, biblical prophets, Isaiah, John the Evangelist, Nostradamus, etc.

The first attempts at scientific forecasts date back to the end of the 19th century: “Germany in 2000” () Georg Ehrmann, “The Future War and Its Economic Consequences” () Ivan Stanislavovich Blioch, “Outline of the Political and Economic Organization of the Future Society” () Gustav de Molinari, "Anticipations" () by H. G. Wells. In the 1920s and 30s, John Haldane's book Daedalus, or Science and the Future () was influential.

The term "futurology" was proposed by the sociologist Ossip K. Flechtheim in 1943, in a letter to Aldous Huxley, who enthusiastically accepted it and put it into circulation.

Futurology methods

The main methods used in futurology can be divided into four groups:

• Surveys of experts aimed at identifying a common opinion using the Delphi method or questionnaires.
• Statistical methods such as extrapolation, probabilistic analysis, regression and correlation analysis.
• Searching for analogies of the future with existing systems and drawing up scenarios for the future.
• Role-playing games, simulations, negotiations and other methods of group work on planning and predicting the future.

Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, Delphi, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also includes the consideration of such matters as normative or desirable futures.

Futurologist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future in supernatural ways, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios (for example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurologists, unlike those who who predicts the relative wealth of nations in a generation).

Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological ones) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then they took up research for a new book. More recently, they've started consulting groups or made a living from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, and his ex-wife Patricia Ebourdine are three notable examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.

Futurologists share a number of similarities with science fiction writers, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even come up with futurological articles (eg Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislav Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in her introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that divination is the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not writers: "the business of a writer is to lie."

Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology regarding the prediction of the far future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "big crunch".

Futurists have a very controversial reputation and success story. For obvious reasons, they often extrapolate current technological and social trends and assume that they will develop at the same pace in the future, but technological progress in reality has its own paths and rates of development. For example, many futurists of the 1950s believed that space tourism would be ubiquitous today, but did not predict the possibilities of ubiquitous cheap computers. On the other hand, many predictions were accurate.

Notable futurists

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Notes

Literature

• Tuzovsky I. D. / I. D. Tuzovsky; Chelyab. state acad. culture and arts. - Chelyabinsk, 2009. - 312 p.
• Bestuzhev-Lada IV Alternative civilization. - M.: VLADOS, 1998. - 352 p.
• A. Turchin, M. Batin. "", Binom - M .: - 2012

Links

• A. V. Korotaev

An excerpt characterizing Futurology

The first time of his arrival, Nikolai was serious and even boring. He was tormented by the imminent need to intervene in these stupid household affairs for which his mother had called him. In order to get this burden off his shoulders as soon as possible, on the third day of his arrival, he angrily, without answering the question where he was going, went with frowning eyebrows to Mitenka's wing and demanded from him the accounts of everything. What these accounts of everything were, Nikolai knew even less than Mitenka, who had come in fear and bewilderment. The conversation and accounting of Mitenka did not last long. The headman, the elector and the zemstvo, who were waiting in the ante-room of the wing, heard with fear and pleasure at first how the young count’s voice, which seemed to rise ever higher, hummed and crackled, heard abusive and terrible words, pouring out one after another.
- Rogue! Ungrateful creature! ... I will chop up a dog ... not with my father ... robbed ... - etc.
Then these people, with no less pleasure and fear, saw how the young count, all red, with bloodshot eyes, pulled Mitenka by the collar, with great dexterity, with great dexterity, between his words, pushed him in the behind and shouted: “Get out! so that your spirit, bastard, is not here!
Mitenka flew headlong down the six steps and ran into the flower bed. (This flowerbed was a well-known area for saving criminals in Otradnoye. Mitenka himself, when he arrived drunk from the city, hid in this flowerbed, and many residents of Otradnoye, hiding from Mitenka, knew the saving power of this flowerbed.)
Mitenka's wife and sisters-in-law, with frightened faces, leaned out into the hallway from the door of the room, where a clean samovar was boiling and the clerk's high bed stood under a quilted blanket sewn from short pieces.
The young count, panting, paying no attention to them, walked past them with resolute steps and went into the house.
The countess, who immediately learned through the girls about what had happened in the wing, on the one hand, calmed down in the sense that now their condition should get better, on the other hand, she was worried about how her son would endure this. She tiptoed to his door several times, listening to him smoke pipe after pipe.
The next day the old count called his son aside and said to him with a timid smile:
- Do you know, you, my soul, got excited in vain! Mitenka told me everything.
"I knew, thought Nikolai, that I would never understand anything here in this stupid world."
- You were angry that he did not enter these 700 rubles. After all, he wrote them in transport, and you didn’t look at the other page.
- Daddy, he's a scoundrel and a thief, I know. And what he did, he did. And if you don't want me, I won't tell him anything.
- No, my soul (the count was also embarrassed. He felt that he was a bad manager of his wife's estate and was guilty before his children, but did not know how to fix it) - No, I ask you to take care of business, I'm old, I ...
- No, papa, you will forgive me if I did something unpleasant for you; I can do less than you.
“To hell with them, with these men and money, and transports along the page,” he thought. Even from a corner of six kush, I once understood, but from the page of transport - I don’t understand anything, ”he said to himself, and since then he has no longer intervened in business. Only once did the countess call her son to her, inform him that she had Anna Mikhailovna's bill for two thousand and asked Nikolai what he was thinking of doing with him.
“But how,” Nikolai answered. – You told me that it depends on me; I do not love Anna Mikhailovna and I do not love Boris, but they were friendly with us and poor. So that's how! - and he tore the bill, and with this act, with tears of joy, he made the old countess sob. After that, the young Rostov, no longer intervening in any business, with passionate enthusiasm, took up the still new for him cases of dog hunting, which had been started on a large scale by the old count.

There were already winters, morning frosts shackled the ground moistened with autumn rains, already the greenery had become narrower and bright green separated from the stripes of turning brown, knocked out by cattle, winter and light yellow spring stubble with red stripes of buckwheat. The peaks and forests, which at the end of August were still green islands between the black fields of winter and stubble, became golden and bright red islands in the midst of bright green winters. The hare was already halfway lost (molted), the fox broods began to disperse, and the young wolves were larger than the dog. It was the best hunting time. The dogs of the hot, young hunter Rostov not only entered the hunting body, but also knocked out so that in the general council of hunters it was decided to give the dogs a rest for three days and go on departure on September 16, starting from the oak forest, where there was an untouched wolf brood.
This was the state of affairs on the 14th of September.
All that day the hunt was at home; it was frosty and poignant, but in the evening it began to rejuvenate and warmed up. On September 15, when young Rostov looked out the window in the morning in a dressing gown, he saw such a morning, better than which nothing could be better for hunting: as if the sky was melting and descending to the ground without wind. The only movement that was in the air was the quiet movement from top to bottom of descending microscopic drops of mist or mist. Transparent drops hung from the bare branches of the garden and fell on the newly fallen leaves. The ground in the garden, like poppies, turned glossy wet black, and at a short distance merged with the dull and damp cover of fog. Nikolay went out onto the porch, wet with dirt, which smelled of withering forest and dogs. The black-spotted, broad-assed bitch Milka, with big black bulging eyes, saw her master, stood up, stretched back and lay down like a brown, then unexpectedly jumped up and licked him right on the nose and mustache. Another greyhound dog, seeing the owner from the colored path, arching its back, quickly rushed to the porch and raising the rule (tail), began to rub against Nikolai's legs.
- Oh goy! - that inimitable hunting echo was heard at that time, which combines both the deepest bass and the thinnest tenor; and from around the corner came Danilo, a hunter and hunter, trimmed in Ukrainian brackets, a gray-haired, wrinkled hunter with a bent rapnik in his hand and with that expression of independence and contempt for everything in the world that only hunters have. He took off his Circassian hat in front of the master, and looked at him contemptuously. This contempt was not offensive to the master: Nikolai knew that this Danilo, who despised everything and stood above all, was still his man and hunter.
- Danila! - said Nikolai, timidly feeling that at the sight of this hunting weather, these dogs and the hunter, he was already seized by that irresistible hunting feeling in which a person forgets all previous intentions, like a man in love in the presence of his mistress.

future trends.

The term "futurology" was proposed by the sociologist Ossip K. Flechtheim in 1943, in a letter to Aldous Huxley, who enthusiastically accepted it and put it into circulation.

All philosophers, prophets and religious thinkers have tried to predict the future since ancient times: Plato, Aristotle, biblical prophets, Isaiah, John the Theologian, Nostradamus, etc.

The first attempts at scientific forecasts date back to the end of the 19th century: "Germany in 2000" () Georg Ehrmann, "The Future War and Its Economic Consequences" () Ivan Stanislavovich Blioch, "Outline of the Political and Economic Organization of the Future Society" () Gustave de Molinari, "Anticipations" () by H. G. Wells. In the 1920s and 30s, John Haldane's book Daedalus, or Science and the Future () was influential.

Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, Delphi, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also includes the consideration of such issues as normative or desirable futures, but its real contribution is the combination of extrapolation techniques and normative research to explore the best strategies.

Futurologist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future by supernatural means, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios. (For example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurists, but those who predict the relative wealth of nations a generation from now.)

Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological ones) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then they took up research for a new book. More recently, they've started consulting groups or made a living from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, and his ex-wife Patricia Ebourdine are three notable examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.

Futurologists share a number of similarities with science fiction writers, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even come up with futurological articles (eg Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislav Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in her introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that divination is the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not writers: "the business of a writer is to lie."

Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology regarding the prediction of the far future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "big collapse".

Futurology, although sometimes based on science, cannot follow the scientific method, since it cannot be verified by any methods other than the expectation of the future. However, futurologists can (and do) use many scientific methods.

Futurists have a very controversial reputation and success story. For obvious reasons, they often extrapolate current technological and social trends and assume that they will develop at the same pace in the future, but technological progress in reality has its own paths and rates of development. For example, many futurists of the 1950s believed that space tourism would be ubiquitous today, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous cheap computers. On the other hand, many predictions were accurate.

Famous futurists

Synonyms:

See what "Futurologist" is in other dictionaries:

Futurologist ... Spelling Dictionary

Forecaster Dictionary of Russian synonyms. futurologist n., number of synonyms: 1 forecaster (3) ASIS synonym dictionary. V.N. Trishin ... Synonym dictionary

FUTUROLOGIST, a, husband. A sociologist who studies futurology. Explanatory dictionary of Ozhegov. S.I. Ozhegov, N.Yu. Shvedova. 1949 1992 ... Explanatory dictionary of Ozhegov

futurologist- a, h. Fahivets іz futurologii. || Lyudina, yak zdatna tell the future, yogo rice ...

M. Specialist in the field of futurology. Explanatory Dictionary of Efremova. T. F. Efremova. 2000... Modern explanatory dictionary of the Russian language Efremova

futurologist- futurologist, and ... Russian spelling dictionary

futurologist- (2 m); pl. futuro / logs, R. futuro / logs ... Spelling Dictionary of the Russian Language

futurologist- Futurology Belgeche ... Tatar telenen anlatmaly suzlege

futurology- ї, well. Galuzih scientific achievements that cherish the prospects of social processes; scientific forecasting of the future ... Ukrainian glossy dictionary

futurology- [futurolo/g iya] yi, op. yeeeee... Pronunciation Dictionary of Ukrainian Movies

Books

• Transcend. Nine Steps to Eternal Life, Raymond Kurzweil, Terry Grossman. About the book A science-based program to live long enough to live forever. Renowned futurist Ray Kurzweil and M.D. Terry Grossman have explored thousands of...

In 1900, Smithsonian Institution curator John Elfreth Watkins wrote an article for The Ladies' Home called "What Might Happen in the Next Hundred Years" in which he described forecasts so implausible at the time that readers literally pelted him with rotten tomatoes. Of course, Watkins was wrong in many ways. He believed that the letters C, X and Q would disappear from the alphabet, the streets would go underground, and the farms would grow apple-sized strawberries. More interesting, however, are his predictions that have come true: wireless telephone networks, global television, MRI machines, war in the air, and high-speed trains. Watkins even predicted an influx of trucks delivering food across the country.

As Timothy Mack, president of the World Future Society, said, futurists are constantly scanning media news and published scientific research, conducting carefully structured Delphi surveys, and generally relying more on science than on astrology. Many of them also create computer simulations and even role-playing games to predict individual events and trends. The only thing that prevents them is random events, the causes of which are difficult to track in time.

Futurists — whose work is encouraged by large companies and government departments that need to anticipate the problems and trends of the future — are also known for their predictions that can shape the world of the future.

“The main goal of studying the future is to analyze what can happen if current trends continue, decide if this is good, and if not, change” Mac explains.

Here are ten futurologists who can be called the most influential in modern society: they know what will happen next.

Alvin Toffler

If you're puzzled by corporate executives and politicians who constantly use jargon like "change the rules of the game," thank Alvin Toffler, who works as a business journalist for Fortune magazine and as a consultant for technology companies like IBM, Xerox, and AT&T. His 1970 book Future Shock popularized the idea that an increase in the pace of technological change—particularly the growth of computers—could be devastating to society, as many people could not keep up with the progress and were left on the fringes of modernity, confused and disoriented. .

Toffler also put forward the idea that rapid change can fundamentally change the way people interact with each other. And what is the result? There is a state of being that Toffler calls "high transience" when relationships last less and less, and people, ideas and organizations become obsolete faster and faster. In this world of increasing volatility, Toffler predicted, users will evolve into a consumer society that buys disposable products to meet temporary needs, subject to a constant hypnosis to buy more and more.

Upon publication, Future Shock showed a grim, dystopian society in which a high-tech elite would seek to keep the masses in check. But decades later, we have seen Toffler's predictions turn out to be true in many ways, from mobile phones that change once a year to virtual corporations that briefly get together to achieve one goal, and then suddenly disappear.

Michio Kaku

Scientist Kaku is a professor of theoretical physics at the City University of New York. He made important contributions to the development of string theory, which attempts to reconcile Einsteinian relativity and quantum mechanics. He is better known as the author of the bestseller The Physics of the Impossible, which explains how the science and technology of today are transforming in the distant and not so future.

In another 2011 book, The Physics of the Future: How Science Will Determine the Destiny of Man and Our Daily Life in 2100, Kaku draws heavily on a Delphi survey conducted informally with experts in various fields of science. He visited many laboratories and studied the mass of prototype inventions that already exist in order to try to predict how events will develop in the future. Based on the data, Kaku created a hypothetical future society with technologies that would seem like science fiction even today.

Kaku predicts that computers will be able to read our thoughts, and this, in turn, will allow us to move objects and control machines simply by the power of thought. He also predicts advances in biotechnology that will allow humans to extend lifespan and create new organisms that don't exist in nature. Nanotechnology will give us the ability to take one material and turn it into a completely different one at the molecular level - why not a philosopher's stone? By 2100, according to Kaku, all ethnic differences will disappear, and the world will turn into a single planetary civilization.

Christopher Ahlberg

A former Swedish Army Ranger with a PhD, Ahlberg is the CEO of Recorded Future, a Cambridge-based firm that has pioneered the use of the Internet in real time to predict future events. Recorded Future's computers scour tens of thousands of websites, blogs and Twitter accounts and use clever analytics software to try to make "invisible connections" between the individual things people say in order to predict an event. The Recorded Future also uses this information to find out exactly when an event might occur.

The potential of Recorded Future technology is such that Google and the US Central Intelligence Agency have become investors in the company. But as Ahlberg pointed out in 2011, the software has limitations: it is better at some predictions than others. With frequent events, the technology works great, such as assessing market volatility, but not so well with infrequent events, such as elections. And random events like black swans are hard to predict, too.

Dirk Helbing

Like Ahlberg of Recorded Future, Helbing - a German-born physicist, mathematician and sociologist - hopes to use computer software to achieve a level of prescience that the priests of the Oracle of Delphi would nervously smoke on the sidelines. However, Helbing decided to go further and create a broader data analysis network to gain insight not only into individual events, but also the long-term changes that affect people around the planet.

Helbing creates the Living Earth Simulator Project in the laboratory of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich. The venture, worth $1.4 billion, involves building a supermassive computer system capable of simulating just about any event that could happen on the planet. The LES, which Helbing calls the "nervous system of the planet," will collect everything from the economic statistics of a single state to the tweets of your neighbor Lucy. In addition, he will be able to use data from computers connected to the Internet and view photos uploaded to the Web from smartphone cameras.

To make sense of this chaos of seemingly unrelated things, LES uses complex algorithms, such as prediction equations, to find relationships between seemingly different things. Helbing believes that the simulator will be able to predict large-scale events such as wars and financial crises, epidemics and pandemics. Ideally, long before they happen, so that political leaders and countries as a whole can prevent the devastating consequences of such disasters.

Ray Kurzweil

At 13, New Yorker boy Ray used parts of a phone to build a calculator that would calculate square roots. In the late 60s, he went to MIT and later founded a successful software analytics company to sell for $100,000. Decades later, Kurzweil envisioned many world-changing innovations, from optical character recognizers to voice and music synthesizers. But the man who is arguably America's greatest living inventor, Inc. once called him "the rightful heir to Thomas Edison", who was also known as a jack of all trades - better known as a futurist.

Kurzweil was not the first to decide that machines would eventually eclipse the power of the human mind, but he boldly set the date for the technological singularity. In 2005, Kurzweil proclaimed that "non-biological intelligence" would emerge in 2045 and not only surpass human thinking abilities, but be a billion times smarter than the rest of humanity today. With all this, Kurzweil does not worry that some evil machines will decide to destroy humanity, as in the Terminator. On the contrary, in the future, man and machine will be closely linked to achieve incredible stages of progress and innovation. Kurzweil believes that humans will become more involved in artificial intelligence than we can imagine, and in 2030 many of our organs will be replaced by tiny robots that will work longer than ours and much more efficiently.

William Gibson

Unlike predictors who rely on data, Gibson of South Carolina—author of Neuromancer, Virtual Light, Pattern Recognition, and the recent Zero History—writes in the style of a contemporary Jules Verne, using his imagination to represent science fiction of the future. Gibson, now based in Canada, began his writing career in the early 1980s on an old-fashioned typewriter. And this did not stop him from imagining a planet where people are connected by a global computer network and spend most of their time in "cyberspace" - this term belongs to Gibson's authorship.

His imagination gave rise to an incredible resemblance to the modern multimedia Internet, which then existed only as a skeleton linking several universities and research institutions. As journalist Pagan Kennedy aptly noted in 2012, “Ten years later, when we stepped into cyberspace, the word became true.” The future of Gibson's sketches is bleak and dystopian, promising nothing. The 1988 book Mona Lisa Overdrive, for example, describes a phenomenon called "neuroelectronic" attachment, in which wireheads became so addicted to digital content that they turned into comatose zombies connected to modems. It is worth noting that Gibson also predicted a more optimistic impact of technology. In the 1997 novel Idoru, the author depicted a Chinese city completely demolished by the authorities in order to resurrect it in cyberspace as an online oasis of political and creative freedom.

Aubrey de Gray

Years ago, the Spanish navigator Ponce de León searched for a mythical fountain of youth whose waters were believed to reverse destructive aging. Today, UK-born de Gray predicts a future in which we can change our bodies at the cellular and molecular level to repair damage or even prevent aging. At the same time, de Gray is leading research that seeks to make a reality of the dream of a person to live much longer than it should be today.

A graduate of the University of Cambridge, Aubrey began his work in computer science but then switched to the field of biogerontology. De Gray outlined a plan for rejuvenating the human body, calling it the Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS), which divides the phenomenon of aging into seven specific classes of damage and defines careful approaches to solving the problems of each of them. De Gray now chairs the SENS Foundation, a non-profit organization that supports research and is the Editor-in-Chief of Rejuvenation Research, a peer-reviewed scientific journal. In a 2010 interview with The Guardian, de Gray said he believes that the human lifespan could be extended to 1,000 years, and that there is a 30-40 percent chance that the first millennial centenarian is already walking on the planet.

Paul Roberts

In 1983, Roberts graduated from the University of Washington and became a journalist who writes for National Geographic and other publications. He deals with the complex juxtaposition of economics, technology and nature. Roberts is one of the most famous predictors of the so-called “peak oil”, which says that the world may have already reached the maximum threshold for gasoline production, which means that the amount of natural resources of raw materials may run out in the next ten to twenty years.

In The End of Oil, Roberts predicts that the demand for energy will continue to rise as people in the developing world indulge in cars, big air-conditioned houses, and other technological bells and whistles available in developed countries. Intense competition for reduced supplies of fuels and other natural energy sources will flare up in full force, leading to conflicts and political instability. At the same time, climate change caused by people burning gasoline and other fuels will cause us incredible destruction.

Roberts believes that the main duty of the United States, as the main energy consumer in the world, should be to find and develop more efficient alternative energy sources that can replace oil and other fossil fuels.

Faith Popcorn

Over the past few decades, New York native Faith Popcorn has been hailed as the "Nostradamus of marketing," and her firm BrainReserve has built a lucrative franchise by advising companies from Johnson & Johnson and IBM to Dunkin' Donuts on tracking trends and changes in human behavior. The Popcorn prediction method, described in a 1998 LA Times article, involves systematic scanning of hundreds of magazines, newspapers, and other publications, as well as consulting data from thousands of experts in various fields of employment.

Popcorn has become famous for predicting the emergence of the “cocoon” trend, when people overstimulated decide to stay at home and watch videos instead of going to the movies, ordering food from restaurants instead of going out. She also accurately guessed that many women would give up on the corporate rat race and want a simple and healthy life. Since then, Popcorn has predicted future consumer trends many times. Some of them, like the rise in demand for cosmetic surgery, tattoos and other forms of body modification, have already come true. Others—for example, that young people will reject big-name brand names in favor of simple, high-quality clothing to express their individuality—are yet to come.

John Naisbit

A former U.S. Marine and executive at IBM and Kodak, Naisbitt served as an adviser to two presidents, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, before publishing the best-selling book Megatrends in 1982, in which he predicted the rapid growth of a global economy and a society that would commodify information equally. with manufactured products. In days before news was published on the web, Naisbitt did prescience based on the paper form of Google, rummaging through more than 200 newspapers a day with colleagues in search of recurring events and motives for public behavior.

Since then, Naisbitt has written numerous other books, including a 1990 female-focused sequel to Megatrends and, in 2010, China Megatrends, in which Naisbitt suggested that China would eventually create a fundamentally new social and economic system. , which will become an alternative to Western democracy. Nabsty also predicted, among other things, the rise of intellectual freedom in China and the rise of the Chinese version of country music.

Futurology is the science of the future, a synthesis of history with forecasting and science fiction.

Since ancient times, philosophers and scientists have put forward their concepts and scientific ideas to predict the future. Sometimes these theories were radically opposed. Indeterminism speaks of the future in the hands of society, which independently manages it. The theory of determinism claims the opposite, that destinies have long been predetermined. Another concept claims that the human race independently creates the future, but all decisions and actions are programmed.

History of the development of futurology

Since ancient times, seers, religious thinkers and philosophers have tried to predict the future. Back in the Middle Ages, the great thinkers Tommaso Campanella and Thomas More tried to predict the future social order.

In the 40s of the twentieth century, the German scientist Osip Flecht-Heim introduced the term "futurology". Flecht-Heim argued that futurology should study the future of all social phenomena. The flowering of this science occurred in the second half of the twentieth century. Many societies were created, international associations were founded - the Club of Rome (1968), the World Federation for the Study of the Future (1974).

In our time, there are organizations and scientific institutions that predict the problems of modern humanity.

What does a futurist do

There are four main methods:

• Statistical - includes probabilistic, correlation, regression analysis and extrapolation.
• A method of matching the future with previously existing concepts to predict future events.
• Determining the point of view of people based on surveys (questionnaires).
• The method of forecasting and planning the future based on group work methods.

Do not miss:

Futurologists are trying to predict the tragedies and achievements of mankind in a generation. They do not include people with super powers. There are authors who are known only as futurists. They are sometimes associated with science fiction. These days they are public speaking and advising groups. Famous representatives of this class: John Naisbitt, Patricia Eburdin, Alvin Toffler.

Futurology is a science with an ambiguous reputation. Very often, scientists predict a fantastic development of technology. So, in the 50s of the twentieth century, futurologists believed in the possibility of space tourism in the twenty-first century, but could not foresee such an amount of available computer technology. However, many predictions came true and were accurate. The science of futurology will exist for a long time, because we all want to know what awaits us in the future.

To the question who is a FUTUROLOGIST. given by the author User deleted the best answer is In Russian, it sounds like "budushcheve". The same as astrology, palmistry, divination on TARO cards, etc. More scientific surroundings, statistics, etc. The percentage of justification of forecasts is less than that of Wanda and Nostradamus. The science? It has all the attributes inherent in it, but isn't this the main thing for a true futurist who can look to his future with confidence?

Answer from Galina Kotlyarova[guru]

Answer from Hades[guru]
Professional futurists are people who make money by predicting the future. This is a serious profession, especially in demand in our time.
Predicting the future is actually an interesting activity. Thinking about the fate of the world, trying to understand in which direction the development of mankind is moving, you can fully show your creative abilities and visionary talent, especially since no one limits your imagination. These days, many people are doing this on a professional basis, writes Wired.
According to the Association of Professional Futurologists, founded three years ago, predictions of the future are becoming more in demand as the pace of scientific and technological progress accelerates. Now some commercial companies and government agencies not only turn to the services of futurologists, but often even have them in their own staff. In some places there are entire departments that are engaged in forecasting the future. It is known that such departments exist in British Telecom and IBM, as well as in the CIA. Many firms hire futurists as consultants.
Since no professional standards have yet developed in this area, anyone can now call themselves a "futurist". Forecasts, although made on the basis of real statistical and demographic data, are based on their subjective interpretation. In this regard, it is difficult to judge the competence of a specialist - after all, only time can check the quality of his work. Therefore, many true professionals in their field prefer to be called consultants so as not to embarrass the client. But the essence of the work does not change from this. Their job is to predict the future.
In addition to the Association of Professional Futurologists, there is an active education of other professional organizations. The World Society of Futurologists, the World Federation for Future Studies and the Council for the World Future have already begun their activities.
However, many futurists are embarrassed to talk about their work openly, and for good reason. The worst thing is to get into trouble. Make an unreasonable forecast, which then will not come true, and expose yourself to the general ridicule. Here is a selection of the most famous predictions, very funny from today's point of view: "Computers of the future can weigh no more than one and a half tons" (Popular Mechanics magazine, 1949), "There is no reason that anyone would want to have a computer at home" (Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977). The job of a professional futurologist is to prevent such blunders. He does not make loud statements, and he usually makes forecasts exclusively for the client.
Now there is clearly a need for formal recognition of the profession of a futurologist. A certification process must be approved, which may include passing an exam and training courses. These issues are just beginning to be discussed, and in any case, the process of certification of futurologists will not begin until 2009. The "consultants" themselves will only be happy, because after formal recognition they will be taken more seriously.
So far, the situation with the training of future futurologists is bad. Only two of America's lesser-known institutions offer such programs: the Alternate Futures course at the University of Hawaii and the Futures Studies course at the University of Houston. In both specialties, you can get a "master" degree.

Answer from Albert[guru]
a person, a scientist who studies the future: forecasts and prospects, development of strategies, etc., etc.

Answer from Arkady Darchuk[guru]
Futurology (from Latin Futurum - future and Greek Logos - teaching) is the science of predicting the future, including by extrapolating existing technological, economic or social trends or trying to predict future trends.
Extrapolation is just one of the many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, Delphi, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also includes the consideration of such issues as normative or desirable futures, but its real contribution is the combination of extrapolation techniques and normative research to explore the best strategies.
The futurist uses inspiration and research in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future by supernatural means, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios. (For example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurists, but those who predict the relative wealth of nations a generation from now.)
Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological ones) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then they took up research for a new book. More recently, they've started consulting groups or made a living from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and his ex-wife Patricia Eburdine are three prominent examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.
Futurologists have a number of similarities with science fiction authors, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even publish futurological articles (eg Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislav Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in her introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that divination is the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not writers: "the business of the writer is to lie."
Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology regarding the prediction of the far future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "big collapse".