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Earthquake recurrence: Earthquakes can recur in places where they have already occurred. Therefore, the registered earthquakes set the lower limit of the maximum earthquake magnitudes. However, the allocation of areas only by the maximum recorded earthquakes gives an underestimate due to the short observation interval. Consequently, earthquakes with the same magnitudes are possible in the future near the source zones of recorded earthquakes.

Although the frequency of earthquakes increases rapidly with decreasing magnitude, the energy released by each earthquake, as calculated using any of the formulas in the previous section, decreases even faster. Therefore, if we consider earthquakes over a limited period of time in any particular area or on the entire globe, then in general we find that the release of energy mainly takes place during relatively few earthquakes of the largest magnitude. This is directly related to the well-known idea that weak earthquakes can serve as a safety valve, safely releasing energy that might otherwise manifest as large earthquakes.

The value of the coefficient of combination of forces from various loads also depends on the category of earthquake recurrence.

For buildings erected in seismic regions with an earthquake frequency of 1, 2, 3, the Y values ​​should be multiplied by 0 85; 1 or 1 15 respectively.

For buildings erected in seismic regions with an earthquake frequency of 1 2 3, i values ​​should be multiplied by 0 85; 1 or 1 15 respectively.

The technique for evaluating the patterns of seismic regime dynamics studies variations in the slope of the earthquake recurrence graph and models foreshock sequences using the equation of self-developing processes.

Earthquakes of calculated intensity, measured in points, are divided into three categories depending on their average frequency: Category I - once every 100 years; II category - once every 1,000 years; Category III - once every 10,000 years. Moreover, the norms pay attention to the fact that construction areas with category I earthquake recurrence are the most dangerous for the strength and stability of the designed structures.

The subsystem for generating grid features allows you to convert the initial data into features that are adequate to the model of the predicted phenomenon. The subsystem allows you to create grid models that reveal the spatial properties of point and line objects, such as, for example, the field of seismic activity, the slope field of the earthquake recurrence graph, the density and attribute-weighted point density fields, the distance fields to point or line objects, the total length fields lines in a sliding window of arbitrary radius, perform non-linear filtering of raster fields, calculate arbitrary functions of several initial grid fields constructed from elementary functions using algebraic and logical operations.

Here, following A.M. Yaglom and E.A. Novikov, using the example of locally homogeneous and locally isotropic turbulence, we present the main points of the description of such systems. The known laws of turbulence will be obtained by considering the behavior of Lagrangian fluid particles. This explains the Gutenberg-Richter law of the frequency of earthquakes depending on their intensity.

This approach does not give the expected timing of future earthquakes unless other indications are used. Mogi and Keller and collaborators have suggested that major earthquakes may migrate along the main seismic belts. A more objective method is to estimate the degree of recurrence of earthquakes by the degree of stress or by analyzing previous data. Apparently, there is a linear relationship between gN and M (N is the number of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than M), and this ratio is applicable on all spatial scales - from local to global. The value of b also changes with time in a given area, and this can be used to predict a future earthquake.

It follows from the analysis of empirical data that both reservoir and injection earthquakes are associated with the system of faults present in the given region of the earth's crust. This is the case, in particular, for the Romashkino region. This, in accordance with the theoretical analysis of the nature of the law of recurrence, means that the impact on the massif, transmitted from the reservoir or when fluid is injected into the wells, activates more faults in the massif (activates the volume of the massif) than it happens in the case of natural earthquakes, the sources of which are distributed only over system of active faults, giving rise to a normal slope of the earthquake frequency curve.

First, continuous, random processes are considered. Their examples in the work are the locally homogeneous and isotropic Kolmogorov-Obukhov turbulence, described in 1941 mainly by considerations of similarity and dimension, the frequency spectrum of sea waves obtained by Zakharov in 1966, and the statistical structure of the planet's surface topography. Then 0 is considered event stream statistics. The main formula (4) in the work is given a probabilistic interpretation, with the help of which many empirical cumulative distributions of frequency - size, such as the Gutenberg-Richter law for the frequency of earthquakes, are explained. With the help of a practically important simple formula (13), the rate of generation of energy released during events is estimated. With its help, for example, it was found that the rate of energy generation released during earthquakes is about 0 1% of the power of the total geothermal flow.

Chapter II is devoted to the results of studies of various wave processes in the atmosphere. Chapter III analyzes the dynamics of planetary atmospheres using the theory of similarity. The results of research on the theory of climate and its changes are presented in chapter IV. In this chapter, among other things, the extreme properties of the climate system, the problems of nuclear winter, the modeling of the Caspian level, seasonal variations in the temperature of the mesosphere, and changes in the composition of the atmosphere over Russia are noted. Chapter V is devoted to studies of convection in the mantle, in the Earth's atmosphere and in the ocean. Rotational convection is studied theoretically and in laboratory experiments with applications to deep convection in the ocean, in the liquid core of the Earth, to describe the energy regimes of hurricanes. Chapter VI analyzes the statistics and energy of various natural processes and phenomena. The results of studies on the general theory of statistics of natural processes and phenomena as random walks in the space of impulses are presented, which make it possible to derive their regularities in a unified way. Kolmogorov turbulence, sea waves, and the law of earthquake recurrence have been studied. A special place is occupied by Chapter VII, which characterizes the breadth of the author's interests.

Violation of the equilibrium conditions of the inner layers of the earth, which occurs as a result of earthquakes, is accompanied by the appearance of elastic vibrations (seismic waves) in rocks. The place inside the earth's crust, where the imbalance of its layers occurred, is called the hypocenter, or the focus of the earthquake; the point on the earth's surface closest to the hypocenter is called the epicenter. The hypocenter and epicenter of an earthquake are not points, but areas that have a known extent and are very extended. Seismic waves radiate from the hypocenter in all directions. The strongest and most destructive tremors are observed in the epicenter. They arise only among loose deposits, their amplitude is very large, the speed is only 4 m / sk, neither soil nor buildings can resist them. The duration and number of tremors, as well as the intervals between individual shocks, are very diverse for each earthquake. The recurrence of earthquakes, expressed in their frequent manifestation in any area, and the greatest degree of their intensity determine the concept of the country's seismicity. On the map of the earth, it is possible to distinguish areas that are seismic - shaken frequently and destructively, peniseismic - shaken often and strongly, and aseismic - shaken rarely and weakly or not at all. To designate the strength of earthquakes, they are guided by the intensity of their destructive consequences; In this regard, the Ross and Forel scale, which divides earthquakes into 10 classes, has come into almost universal use: from those invisible to direct observation and those detected only by sensitive seismographs micro-eyes-mich. The Rossi-Forel scale, while giving very detailed subdivisions for weak strikes, is insufficient for stronger strikes. Therefore, in the practice of Italian seismologists, the Mercalli scale with 12 classes is adopted.

Earthquakes are a natural phenomenon that even today attracts the attention of scientists not only due to their little knowledge, but also due to their unpredictability, which can harm humanity.

What is an earthquake?

An earthquake is an earth tremor that can be felt by a person to a large extent, depending on the power of the earth's surface vibrations. Earthquakes are not uncommon and occur every day in different parts of the world. Often, most earthquakes occur at the bottom of the oceans, which avoids catastrophic destruction within densely populated cities.

The principle of earthquakes

What causes earthquakes? Earthquakes can be caused by both natural causes and man-made ones.

Most often, earthquakes occur due to faults in tectonic plates and their rapid displacement. For a person, the fault is not noticeable until the moment when the energy generated from the rupture of rocks begins to break out to the surface.

How do earthquakes occur due to unnatural causes? Quite often, a person, through his negligence, provokes the appearance of artificial shocks, which in their power are not at all inferior to natural ones. Among these reasons are the following:

• - explosions;
• - overfilling of reservoirs;
• - ground (underground) nuclear explosion;
• - collapses in mines.

The place where the tectonic plate breaks is the focus of the earthquake. Not only the strength of the potential shock, but also its duration will depend on the depth of its location. If the focus is located 100 kilometers from the surface, then its strength will be more than palpable. Most likely, this earthquake will entail the destruction of houses and structures. Originating in the sea, such earthquakes cause tsunamis. However, the focus can be located much deeper - 700 and 800 kilometers. Such phenomena are not dangerous and can be recorded only with the help of special instruments - seismographs.

The place where an earthquake is strongest is called the epicenter. It is this piece of land that is considered the most dangerous for the existence of all living things.

Studying earthquakes

A detailed study of the nature of earthquakes makes it possible to prevent many of them and make the life of the population living in dangerous places more peaceful. To determine the power and measure the strength of an earthquake, two basic concepts are used:

• - magnitude;
• - intensity;

The magnitude of an earthquake is a measure that measures the energy released during release from the source in the form of seismic waves. The magnitude scale allows you to accurately determine the sources of fluctuations.

The intensity is measured in points and allows you to determine the ratio of the magnitude of shocks and their seismic activity from 0 to 12 points on the Richter scale.

Features and signs of earthquakes

Regardless of what causes an earthquake and in what area it is localized, its duration will be approximately the same. One push on average lasts 20-30 seconds. But there are cases in history when a single push without repetition could last up to three minutes.

Signs of an approaching earthquake are the anxiety of animals, who, having sensed the slightest vibrations of the earth's surface, try to get away from the unfortunate place away. Other signs of an imminent earthquake are:

• - the appearance of characteristic clouds in the form of oblong ribbons;
• - change of water level in wells;
• - failures in the work of electrical engineering, mobile phones.

How to behave during earthquakes?

How to behave during an earthquake to save your life?

• - Maintain composure and calmness;
• - When indoors, never hide under fragile furniture, such as under a bed. Lie next to them in a fetal position and cover your head with your hands (or protect your head with something extra). When the roof collapses, it will fall on the furniture and a layer may form, in which you will find yourself. It is important to choose sturdy furniture whose widest part rests on the floor, i.e. this furniture cannot fall;
• - When outdoors, move away from tall buildings and structures, power lines that can collapse.
• - Cover your mouth and nose with a wet cloth to prevent dust and fumes from entering if an object catches fire.

If you notice an injured person in a building, then wait for the tremors to end and only then make your way into the room. Otherwise, both people may be trapped.

Where there are no earthquakes and why?

Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates break. Therefore, countries and cities located on a solid tectonic plate without faults can not worry about their safety.

Australia is the only continent in the world that is not located at the junction of lithospheric plates. There are no active volcanoes and high mountains on it and, accordingly, there are no earthquakes. There are also no earthquakes in Antarctica and Greenland. The presence of the enormous gravity of the ice shell prevents the spread of tremors over the surface of the earth.

The probability of earthquakes on the territory of the Russian Federation is quite high in rocky terrain, where the displacement and movement of rocks is most actively observed. Thus, high seismicity is noted in the North Caucasus, Altai, Siberia and the Far East.

Our program includes:
- Head of the Center for the Study of Accidents and Catastrophes Alexander Maratovich Zakharov;
- Head of the Laboratory of Continental Seismicity and Seismic Hazard Forecast of the Institute of Physics of the Earth named after V.I. O. Yu. Schmidt RAS, National Representative of Russia in the European Seismological Commission, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Alexey Dmitrievich Zavyalov.

Nika:
Let's dedicate a few words to China. Alexander Maratovich, could the experts predict and did they predict this earthquake?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Specifically, China does not, but there are so-called graphs of energy stresses in nature, which have been working for the last 10 years. I build graphs with an accuracy of at least 95%, and every time some kind of global emergency happens, a catastrophe, all this can be seen. And thousands or millions of people are watching, because the graphics are on the Internet on my website, in newspapers, and each time they fall into the billing period. China also fell into the calculation period in the same way.

Nika:
Do you make this schedule for a certain territory?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
No. This is a general geophysical graph of bursts of natural social activity. My theory, which is called "Energy Rhythms of Nature" of negative energy emissions that destroy everything and everything, does not happen randomly. When I started talking with scientists, it was about 5-6 years ago, they told me that it was almost the official version and the fundamental scientific foundation: that chaos reigns in nature, and that says it all. I adhere to a completely opposite point of view, that in nature there is an absolute iron order. But if there is an order, then there is an algorithm; if there is an algorithm, then it can be calculated. If you count, then there are some methods. I don’t know everything about this, but what I know gives me absolute confidence that everything works with such accuracy that there is a forecast for the next six months in Arguments and Facts on China, in particular, for specific periods.

Nika:
That is, at the time of the Olympics, something else can happen?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Yes. It says that the Olympics will be euphoric, but there will be a lot of dramatic situations around the Olympics, not only earthquakes. China finds itself in a very sad and sad period.

Nika:
Some black bar.

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Well, it's not a black bar. What are earthquakes from the point of view of the laws of physics - this is, first of all, the release of a gigantic amount of energy. This amount of energy does not just appear, it accumulates from somewhere. How can it accumulate? Either it's evolution or it's revolution...

Nika:
Alexey Dmitrievich, what do you think, did China have any chances to somehow protect itself, evacuate people and be ready for this earthquake?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
You know, it so happened that on the 12th three Chinese scientists came to us, who are just representatives of the Chinese administration for the study of earthquakes. Naturally, after the earthquake happened, one of the first questions to our Chinese colleagues was: “Have you observed any harbingers in this area?” And the answer was, in general, positive. “Yes, we warned the administration about two years in advance that Sichuan is a potentially dangerous place, that an earthquake could happen here in the future.” But they did not determine either the area specifically or the strength of the future shock, but there were such warnings. Why and how the authorities used this information, I do not know.

Viewer question:
I was in Kazakhstan in the 50s and there was a small earthquake. It's something creepy. I don't remember exactly what year, but it's such a creepy experience. It seems that now everything will fall on you. Such disturbances of the earth. People are trying to get higher, higher, but the mountains are also shaking, mudflows are coming, this is something dreadful. I have experienced these terrible earthquakes several times.

Nika:
Did you immediately realize it was an earthquake?

Viewer question:
It was announced. They announced that there would be shocks, 4-5 points, about 6, but no more. But it's still creepy.

Viewer question:
I am from Vyborg. I used to live in Sevastopol, I remember such a historical event, where Cape Khersones went under water, then, after a while, it surfaced again, and after the war, somewhere in 1948-1950, we had earthquakes in Sevastopol, but not big ones. Is it possible to repeat there, because I have relatives there?

Nika:
How seismically dangerous is Sevastopol?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
The zone of southern Ukraine, of course, is seismically dangerous and I can remind you of a seismic event 80 years ago, this is the Crimean earthquake of 1928, which occurred near Yalta and is described by the classics of our literature, this is Ilf and Petrov in "12 chairs". 80 years have passed. There has never been an earthquake of this magnitude in this area, so the likelihood of such an event in the future increases every year.

Nika:
That is, you agree, Alexander Maratovich said that there is a cycle in the life of the Earth. 80 years have passed, yet, God forbid, 20 years and can we expect something? This cycle, how long is it?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
I would say that not in the life of the earth, but in the life of each seismically active region, there is a certain cycle of repetition of strong earthquakes in each specific place. We call this the seismic cycle. For the first time this concept was introduced in the mid-60s by Academician Sergei Alexandrovich Fedotov for Kamchatka. He explored the area and after the study, the term came into use. For Kamchatka, the seismic cycle of repetition of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.7 on the Richter scale is 140 years (plus or minus 60 years). For another area, it will be a different time interval. What specific period of the seismic cycle for the region of southern Ukraine, for the Crimea, Yalta, Odessa, Sevastopol - I do not know. I can not say.

Nika:
Does Kazakhstan fall into such a zone?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
Kazakhstan is one of the seismically active zones, earthquakes occur there. For Kazakhstan, you can also read the duration of the seismic cycle. But the thing is that since strong earthquakes are quite rare, more than 100 years with a magnitude of 7.5 and above, then we simply do not have data in order to statistically reliably calculate the duration of the seismic cycle. After all, instrumental seismology is a rather young science. She is just over a hundred years old. And in order to include some chronicle sources in these studies, one must be very careful, because the removal or addition of each new event can significantly change the duration of this seismic cycle. And then, earthquakes don't happen like trains run, on schedule. One of the clearest examples is the expectation of another strong earthquake in southern California. There it was established by preliminary studies that the period of repetition of an earthquake with a certain magnitude, it is somewhere between 20 - 22 years. And so, if the previous earthquake was in the 60s, then the next one was expected in the 80s - early 90s. So this earthquake did not take place and the whole system aimed at predicting this next earthquake, this experiment failed.

Viewer question:
Have there been tremors on the territory of St. Petersburg and are they possible in principle?

Viewer question:
In 2004, an earthquake of about 6 points occurred in Kaliningrad. We all residents were discouraged by this event, because we are used to living and thinking that we live in a calm area. Tell me, how likely are the repetitions of such events and how calm can you be?

Nika:
Were you warned before the earthquake started?

Viewer question:
No. We were warned already half an hour before the tremors, and when the tremors had already begun, the institutions were told to go out into the street.

Nika:
What is your forecast for Russia? It seems that if you imagine the frame that frames Russia, then somehow these zones go along the borders. How correct is this and how much can the center of Russia suffer?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
As I have already begun to say, there are evolutionary earthquakes, and there are revolutionary ones. Evolutionary earthquakes, when transformations take place in the bowels of the earth, which are laid down by nature, you just need to study them, know the pattern, etc. There are revolutionary earthquakes. What it is? If you remember the rules of behavior in the mountains, then everyone probably knows very well how to behave in the mountains. No need to shout loudly, stomp your feet, make noise, etc., because there will be a collapse, snow avalanches, etc. So, if we take the statistics for 300 years and even more on global catastrophes...

Nika:
That is, are you ready to trust the statistics for 300 years?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Of course. For example, a grandiose flood in St. Petersburg, if we remember 1724, 1824, 1924 and, as they say, will happen now, then according to my calculations, St. Petersburg will not experience any floods in the next 50 years. And if you remember every 100 years in the previous one, if you look at the historical archives, what was socially around St. Petersburg and in it before these floods, then it immediately becomes clear that nature simply responds to this.

Nika:
Something we fortunately do not have anything so terrible that we do not have earthquakes? Now we will offend the inhabitants of the affected cities, it turns out that they themselves are to blame for the fact that earthquakes happen.

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
No, of course, not the residents are to blame. And for the same Kaliningrad or other cities that suspect something, there is a questionnaire on my website that you can fill out for a person, for a city, for a building, for a region, for an entire region, etc. And the person makes an order, calculate the map of energy stresses for a given region, for example, the Kaliningrad region. This is a complicated procedure, but it can be done. My assistants and I can do this, let's calculate the map of energy stresses.

Nika:
And offhand, do you think Kaliningrad is a seismically dangerous zone?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
I am not a seismologist, it seems to me that it is not seismically dangerous, but to consider seismically dangerous areas as such, today it will be somewhat incorrect in relation to the Earth as a planet. Because everything is interconnected.

Nika:
What is your opinion about Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg and dangerous zones in Russia. They say that almost up to ¼ of the territory of Russia falls into seismically dangerous zones, is this true?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
This is almost a correct estimate. From 20% to 25% of the territory of Russia is in the zone of seismic hazard. As for St. Petersburg, that part of the earth's crust on which St. Petersburg stands and its immediate surroundings cannot produce those earthquakes of a titanic nature. Earthquakes of other types can occur there, landslides, for example, earthquakes or frosts, there is also such an exotic type of earthquakes. But tectonic earthquakes cannot occur either in St. Petersburg or in Moscow and the Moscow Region. As for Kaliningrad, to put it mildly, it fell out of the close attention of seismologists, firstly, because of our socio-political upheavals, Kaliningrad is a separate region that is far from Russia. The second objective reason is that the region of Kaliningrad, of course, is seismically active, but the period of repetition of earthquakes of such magnitude ... After all, the human psyche is arranged in such a way that it forgets if it is not left in some annals, etc. d. Now the Kaliningrad zone is given worthy attention and the administration of the Kaliningrad region has shown interest in seismological work here. I must say that, as far as I know, during the years of perestroika, the end of the 1980s - the middle of the 2000s, not a single seismic station was operating in the Kaliningrad region. After this event, in my opinion, at least temporary seismic stations and, perhaps, one or two permanent active seismic stations were installed there, which already provide information to the geophysical service of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Viewer question:
I live in the city of Chita. The frequency of earthquakes has increased in recent years. Last week we woke up from an earthquake, we had 4 points. A year ago, the epicenter 200 km from Chita was 6 points. You know, when we call the Ministry of Emergency Situations, they tell us: “Sorry, we don’t deal with such small calls,” and no one gives us forecasts. I'm very excited, because when you sleep and wake up from the fact that the bed is shaking and everything jumps off, it's very difficult.

Nika:
Tell me for people who have never experienced jolts, what does it look like? Did you immediately understand that it was an earthquake, or did it seem to you that something happened on the street, exploded? How strong is this push?

Viewer question:
You know, no one felt it on the first floors, but on the fifth floors we woke up from the feeling that the bed was shaking. She was just shaking and the closet doors opened and we immediately looked at the chandelier, it was swinging like a pendulum. After that, everyone realized that there was a push.

Viewer question:
Alexey Dmitrievich, you touched upon St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, but one of the periodicals published information that there were earthquakes in the territory of the Leningrad region with a magnitude of up to 10 points. This is confirmed by archaeologists, who even found rolled log cabins in the layers, and this could only happen during strong earthquakes. And even a certain periodicity was given, 2 thousand years. They stipulated that this last period had not come. Isn't such an earthquake of such colossal force in our territory threatening us in our time, because we have always been reassured that this is the Northwestern plate and it is not subject to any seismic activity.

Nika:
Let's answer Chita first. Will it shake and shake?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
If we raise the graphs of natural stresses for the last half a year, then the frequency of natural energy stresses is quite high. Now the next period when the surge of natural stresses will be very strong is from June 5 to 15.

Nika:
Are you talking about the Chita region or in general?

Nika:
And what will it be?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
If you turn to seismologists and ask how the instruments register, then most likely it will be a positive result in a negative sense, there will be some progress in terms of the earthquake.

Nika:
And if not an earthquake, then what could it be?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
And it could be a flood, for example, I follow the data of the Ministry of Emergency Situations on fires, I have a schedule of bursts of natural stress. I watch news on the Internet, reports of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. During the day, 150 fires increased, then 3, 4, 5 days go by, the graph goes down, I watch the news, the number of fires decreased by 200 during the day, etc. That is, the schedule is clearly monitored with very high accuracy. From 5 to 15 it is possible and necessary to wait for an earthquake that is not particularly large on the territory of Russia, some frightening ones will be with little destruction, it could be floods, if the floods have not ended somewhere, it could be Yakutia, Altai, etc. This is a surge in fires, again the number of accidents in aviation, etc...

Nika:
It is embarrassing that we cannot take 150 million people in Russia and force them to be more vigilant. But he who is forewarned is forearmed. Alexey Dmitrievich, I want to understand 4 - 6 points, it's unpleasant, as the lady says, but maybe it's not dangerous, shocked, okay?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
You know, probably, different people, and the media, and scientists, and seismologists talk about different magnitudes. We often hear such a message in the media that there was a strong earthquake here and there, 6 points and then the phrase either ends or adds “on the Richter scale”. Now, if we are talking on the Richter scale, then scientists understand that this assessment is called the earthquake magnitude, that is, it is an assessment of the energy released from the source of earthquakes. There is another scale that also operates with points. This scale is called the macroseismic scale of seismic shaking, it is a 12-point scale, it was adopted in 1964 and is still in use today. So this assessment is an assessment of seismic shaking at each specific observation point. If the magnitude characterizes the source, that is, the energy released from the source of the earthquake, and the farther we move away from the source, the less we feel the shaking. Usually, the Urgent Reporting Service of the Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences gives an energy estimate in the form of magnitude and gives the estimated intensity of seismic shaking at the epicenter of the event. And these are different assessments. For example, for China, they gave an estimate of the magnitude, the first estimate was 8, now it fluctuates in different agencies 7 - 8, 7 - 9, the estimated score at the epicenter ranged from 9.5 to 10 points. This is generally a serious earthquake. Therefore, here it is necessary to speak the same language, and it is not always clear, unfortunately, which language we speak.

Nika:
Tell me, and the human body is able to start feeling from what points. When it shook like that, is it serious?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
From 4 points and above is already felt. 1 point is not felt, it is felt only by devices. The intensity of seismic shaking also depends on the soil on which the building is built. If on sandy soils, then this score increases, if on rocky soils, then the score may be less and depends on the number of storeys of the building. The higher the number of storeys, it was not for nothing that the woman spoke about the 5th - 6th floor. The intensity increases and the building sways more strongly.

Nika:
Briefly about St. Petersburg and 10 points. 2000 years ago, this, respectively, is not St. Petersburg and not the Leningrad region, but could we have such a ten-point earthquake?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
You know, according to the information that I have, I have never heard about 10 points in the St. Petersburg region. In general, 10 points is a change in the landscape, landslides, dips appear when the earth diverges, this is a terrible event, cracks come to the surface ... I don’t know. There is such a branch of science in seismology, there is a direction of paleoseismology. It has its own methodology, its own approaches, and, in general, scientists involved in such a matter establish the presence of such earthquakes in the distant past, using both chronicle data and data from field observations, that is, the soil layers are shifted in a certain way as a result of such earthquakes . Here, from our paleoseismologists, I have not heard such information that there was a 10-point shaking.

Viewer question:
I have heard that animals react in a special way to earthquakes. Tell me if this is true and how it manifests itself?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
The well-known events in Thailand, when elephants took tourists away, it was written up and down, and everywhere, when they took tourists up in two or three hours and thereby saved the whole group, after that I personally watched on scientific channels via satellite in Russian language that after that a huge number of scientists rushed to Africa to study elephants. What they just do not feel, a trunk for 50 km vibration, and infrasound, and ultrasound, and they all understand, they all feel, they all see. Moreover, a few years ago, in a very serious newspaper, an article was published that there are a lot of patents and inventions on the subject of plants behaving differently long before the earthquake.

Nika:
You need to get yourself some cunning cactus and look at it.

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
It is easier to map the energy stresses of a person, any building, etc.

Nika:
Our correspondent Andrei Burtsev is now working in China, he is in touch with us by phone. He witnessed the aftermath of the earthquake. Today we are talking about earthquakes, the first question is, how are you feeling? How is China recovering from this catastrophe?

Burtsev Andrey:
It can be said that the Chinese people are deeply affected by this tragedy. We are, in fact, far from the affected province of Sichuan on the resort island of Hainan. Among the local residents, we met those who went there as volunteers and, in particular, they worked with the Russian rescuers of the Ministry of Emergency Situations to eliminate the consequences, many here speak Russian. And those who did not go there personally, they provide all possible assistance, transfer money to a special settlement account. Are they afraid of repeating the consequences here, you know, we are in the territory where Buddhism is practiced and people, in general, are philosophical about all the upheavals, what happened, happened, but the famous Buddhist center on Anshan was closed for visits for two days and they say that the monks here simply prayed that there would be no more such upheavals.

Nika:
Andrei, as far as we understood from the news, people did not know, no one told them that there was such an earthquake. Do you understand that this is really such a sudden tragedy?

Burtsev Andrey:
You know, China is a country where people are in a kind of information blockade, and the first thing that happened to us, when we, who came here by invitation, went through customs, they simply took away our camera. It's hard to say whether people here were warned or not, but you know, people here are not concerned about this, they are concerned about quickly eliminating the consequences of earthquakes and, as one government official said today, now the Chinese Communist Party has three main tasks: first - it is to clean up the aftermath, the second is to rebuild the destroyed cities, and the third is to have a good 2008 Olympics. A few weeks ago, they had one main people's task - to hold a good Olympics.

Nika:
Do they think nothing will affect the Olympics? Because serious scientists sit in our studios and say that, unfortunately, the regions of China will still shake.

Burtsev Andrey:
You know, probably, there is no territory of China now, which, at least indirectly, was not affected by the consequences of these earthquakes. but we were specially invited to Hainan to show that everything is absolutely safe here, although Hainan is already suffering losses, losses are lost profits from tourism, because Russian tour operators place much fewer orders. It seems to me that the main problem may be in China - this is a lack of information, people here know little. There is a picture from these affected cities, where they still spend the night on the streets, because they are still afraid, they spend the night on concrete, on some sports grounds, such a situation.

Viewer question:
I am calling from Sakhalin, which suffered on August 2, 2007. Why were there forecasts, and warned, and said why the Ministry of Emergency Situations then reacted on the second day.

Nika:
You say you were and warned. Did the Ministry of Emergency Situations warn or did you also know?

Viewer question:
There were calculations on the Internet that predicted.

Nika:
So no one told you to pack your suitcase and leave?

Viewer question:
No, of course we are used to it. This happens systematically with us both in winter and summer. We are already accustomed to this. But the fact that there were forecasts for a single such earthquake with a large magnitude, and why, I wonder why they didn’t warn, why they didn’t react. And they still say that there will be a strong earthquake this year.

Viewer question:
In the 60s I was on the island of Iturupe. And when I went there, there was a seven-point storm. Then I experienced a tsunami there, when there were huge waves. The whole village went to the hill, was afraid of this wave, and these typhoons and snowstorms completely swept the village. The soldiers were digging and we were going through tunnels. Tell me, do these tsunamis, typhoons, storms, all this somehow relate to earthquakes?

Viewer question::
And in April 2006, the village of Tilichiki, north of Kamchatka, was hit by an earthquake. Luckily, no one was hurt. The autoshocks continued for two years. How to find out about the possibilities of further earthquakes, about the repetition, whether it will be.

Viewer question:
Are new facilities being built in Sochi taking into account the fact that earthquakes can occur there, or so far no one is paying attention to this?

Nika:
Briefly, Kamchatka, Tilichiki, do you have any information? Kamchatka, typhoon, storm, tsunami - all the same field of berries?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Of course. Moreover, I have a database, statistics for the past few years. As a rule, they all fall into one pile. 2004 tsunami in Thailand. Literally in 2 weeks there will be a flood in St. Petersburg, etc. They all get in. Then the natural tension subsides, everything stops in nature, well, somewhere something one-time. The wave is rising again... Kamchatka, Sakhalin - from June 5 to June 15, if someone has suspicions, it is imperative that the authorities, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and seismologists slow down so that they say how and what. The second half of July, and then from mid-August to the end of September. These are three periods that are very dangerous for large earthquakes.

Nika:
Alexey Dmitrievich, what can you say about Sochi? First I want to say that I am very jealous of my colleague that he has everything so clearly laid out on the shelves. Unfortunately, seismologists can speak quite clearly for the decade ahead and for the coming years.

Nika:
That is, two months is an inaccessible period for you, is it very short?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
Yes. This requires a special system of observations not only for weak seismicity, but also for the behavior of various geophysical fields, for example, for the release of radon, for the water level in wells, and not at individual points, but this should be a system of wells. There are many such points. Further electrical resistance, slopes of the earth's surface, etc. As for Sochi, our Institute of Physics of the Earth and its employees are participating in this process and are doing their best to ensure that the Olympic facilities for Sochi are built taking into account the real seismic hazard, naturally based on the knowledge that we have today.

Nika:
There are serious seismologists who are engaged in this, there is a center for forecasting accidents and disasters, how is it going on in your country? All your data, where does it go and how should it reach people whose security is in question?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
First of all, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, seismological and geophysical data is interested in our data. They regularly ask us for information about this. Moreover, a coordinating prognostic center has been set up at the Institute of Earth Physics. It was created after the 2006 Alyutor earthquake in Koryakia by order of the President. but now it is in the stage of organization and does not work in full force. Although we are already trying to digest and transfer such information to the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Nika:
Isn't space helping you?

Zavyalov Alexey Dmitrievich:
Space cannot help us seismologists, because the Institute of Physics of the Earth does not deal with space at all. but there is such an organization as Aerocosmos, they are engaged in, and as recently as last week, the deputy director of Aerocosmos spoke to us and talked about what they are doing. I must say that there is still a long way to go before the real forecast.

Nika:
Alexander Maratovich, after all, not your personal profiles that can come and order, was there a case when some region was saved, warned, taken out before something happened.

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
A simple example, I also negotiated with the Ministry of Emergency Situations for many years and took a lot of forecasts from me, but when it became clear to everyone that this was absolutely practically significant, and when the schedules ended, they simply called me and asked where the forecasts were, where the schedules were, and said that I will not give anything else without a written transmission, only according to the relevant documents that I will transfer. that's where it all stopped. There was a very clear call in my memory from the Krasnoyarsk main department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, almost the head of the main department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations called and asked what and how. We discussed it with him, I said "wait in 2 days." 2 days later Krasnoyarsk was almost flooded.

Nika:
And nothing happened, no one was taken out?

Zakharov Alexander Maratovich:
Of course not.

Nika:
Next time we will invite employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations as well.

An earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters. The unpredictability and danger of earthquakes generates fear, speculation and panic among the population. To increase the level of literacy of citizens on how to resist a natural disaster, the Siberian Regional Center of the Russian Emergencies Ministry publishes a series of educational materials on the earthquake. Stay up-to-date with the latest content, improve your safety culture and feel confident.

The statement that at the first vibrations of the earth it is necessary to urgently run to the street is only partly true. It all depends on where the person is at the time of the earthquake.

First of all, do not be afraid of every earthquake, relatively weak earthquakes (up to 5 points) do no harm. Moreover, not even all people can feel the movements of the earth's crust of such intensity. Of course, it is difficult for a person to determine the strength of an earthquake, so we suggest remembering the most basic points.

Seismologists say that after the first shocks that a person felt, AFTER 15-20 SECONDS, STRONGER VIBRATIONS can follow, which last several tens of seconds, loosening buildings. Then the oscillations subside for about 30 seconds or more.

Repeated earthquakes (aftershocks) happen almost always, such is the essence of this natural element. Aftershocks are also UNPREDICTABLE. Scientists say that aftershocks can remind of themselves for several weeks in a row, and for several months. However, there is also a positive point. All aftershocks are MUCH WEAKER than the main earthquake, so information about possible aftershocks should not cause alarm.

How to be saved? If you are in a building on the first, second (maximum, third) floors, quickly but carefully leave the building and move away from it to an open area. Remember, you only have 15-20 seconds to do this! Do not rush to the stairs or to the elevator if you are in a building above the second floor and you understand that you do not have time to run out into the street. Take the safest places in the room. These are openings of load-bearing walls (you need to clarify in advance which walls in your apartment are capital, and remember this). You can lie down in the bath (in case of a fall, the concrete slab will linger on the walls of the bath) or take cover under strong tables, beds that can withstand the weight of heavy objects.

The main danger during destructive earthquakes comes from the fall of internal walls, ceilings, and chandeliers. Stay away from windows and heavy objects. Don't go out to the balcony.

If you find yourself in a blockage, do not despair. There are forces - find an opportunity to give a sign. No strength - be patient and wait for the help of rescuers. She will definitely come!

Remember, only destructive earthquakes are dangerous for a person. But even with those, there are CHANCES to save your life. The main and invariable rule is not to lose self-control, to keep the presence of mind, to keep the presence of mind in others and not to panic.

We know little about earthquakes. One thing is clear: an earthquake is easier to prevent than to deal with its consequences. While space geodesy is developing, seismologists observe animals, listen to folk signs and monitor water.

All over the world online

One of the fastest growing earthquake prevention techniques is monitoring popular social media. By tracking the Twitter microblog by tags, scientists can track and predict seismic processes.

The most successful application of this truly revolutionary technology can be called a rapid response to the earthquake that occurred in 2011 in the US state of Virginia. Then the researchers managed to analyze the information from the microblog and take proactive measures.
Seismic monitors can also be of great help. They are on free sale. Users, ordinary citizens, will be able to transmit data from their monitors using Wi-Fi or smartphones.

This method of disaster prevention is becoming more widespread today. Dealing with the threat of "the whole world" with the help of the Internet - what is not an example of the good use of the World Wide Web?

Rescue Telegraph

Today, earthquakes are predicted, among other things, with the help of special seismograph instruments that respond to horizontal and vertical movements. Their predecessor was, oddly enough, the telegraph.

In 1897, the Iranian cashier and telegraph operator Yousef from the city of Kerman noticed an unusual electromagnetic signal recorded by the device, and an earthquake occurred a few minutes later. On October 27, 1909, an earthquake again occurred in Iran, its epicenter was 58 km southeast of Kerman. And again, the station operator received his “message”, fixing the unusual movements of the telegraph needle, after which he managed to warn the people working in the building, and they managed to evacuate. Yousef realized that by the vibrations of the ground and the transmission of an electrical impulse through the wires, disaster could be prevented. He published an article in which he wrote that “if a more sophisticated device is created, the unusual movements of the needle will predict an earthquake a few seconds before it occurs. And if the device is equipped with a large bell, many people will hear its sound, and their lives will be saved.” According to geologist Manuel Berberian, Yousef's discovery went unnoticed. Perhaps because a few seconds are not always enough to even run out of the house.

"And the rivers will flow back"

This is not a terrible phrase from the prophecy about the end of the world, but the basic principle of predicting earthquakes today. Earthquake sources are detected using groundwater. Underground rivers flow, including in areas where a new earthquake source is created. Naturally, water reacts to the movement of rock masses, which squeeze it out or, on the contrary, increase its volume by changing the volume of cracks and microvoids. As a result, the very behavior of groundwater is changing, which leads to a change in the water level in the wells and turns the rivers back. Changes are monitored in special wells, where before an earthquake the water becomes cloudy or warms up.

live signal

Fear of an unexpected earthquake is another reason to get a pet. There has long been an opinion in the world that animals are more sensitive to the smallest changes in the world around them than people. Science knows many examples when, before the first shocks, animals began to behave unusually - cats ran around the room, dogs became aggressive and ran away from home. Supersensitive abilities are even attributed to fish that already a few days before the shocks show anxiety, accumulate in one place or are washed ashore. Such behavior of animals could not pass by the attention of scientists and not lead them to another, it would seem, obvious way to predict a catastrophe. But the problem lies in the fact that the regularity and reason for the change in the behavior of different species of fauna has not yet been identified - for researchers, this is nothing more than a series of accidents.

Folk methods

China is considered one of the most seismologically dangerous areas. Therefore, the Chinese have historically developed their own "folk" methods of predicting earthquakes, unique in each village - somewhere the water level has changed, somewhere snakes crawled out of their nests, and chickens cackled in a neighboring chicken coop. Oddly enough, with large errors, but the method worked. In order to somehow systematize "folk traditions" and make them an effective weapon against disaster, Mao Zedong established a connection - regions-center. People had to report by mail or telephone to a special institution about all unusual phenomena that could be the precursors of a disaster. The system worked, but not for long. Having warned one strong earthquake in this way, it fell apart immediately after Mao's death. The results were not long in coming. In 1976, no one warned the center of the approaching tragedy. China was hit by the devastating Tangshan earthquake, which killed several hundred people.

space geodesy

The most effective way to predict earthquakes today is to use the method of space geodesy. Potentially dangerous points are set, and then surface movement and changes in the area are observed from satellites. The data obtained is used for forecasts. This system works best in Japan, California (USA), Potsdam (Germany) and, of course, in China. In Russia, the method has not yet been developed, we have about 30 such GPS points in Kamchatka and the Kuriles, in other regions they are practically not represented. Nevertheless, we are not far behind in terms of the feasibility of forecasts - the United States has 50%, we have about 40%. The figures, as you can see, are not very high. There is still no good theory of earthquake prediction in the world.

The last method, described by us, is consistent with the saying "out of the fire and into the frying pan." We are talking about the warning of an upcoming strong earthquake, with the help of weaker shocks - foreshocks, which usually precede it. Since high foreshock activity can begin a few days before a real disaster, the authorities have a chance to save the population. For example, the China Seismological Bureau, on this basis, began the evacuation of a million people the day before a strong earthquake in 1975. Unfortunately, this method has its pitfalls. Despite the fact that half of large earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks, only 5-10% of the total number of earthquakes are foreshocks. This leads to false warnings that cost the government too much.

Thumbnail source: wikipedia.org