25.03.2015 13:19

The first flooding in the Altai Territory will begin in April, the largest cities in the region, as well as foothill areas, are at risk of remaining flooded. The water level in some rivers in a few weeks may exceed the maximum allowable levels by 0.3-0.9 m, ITAR-TASS reports with reference to the head of the Altai Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Alexander Luciger.

The rivers of the Altai Territory will begin to break up from ice three to six days earlier than long-term values. Ice drift is expected in early April, at the same time the first wave of floods may begin. “Flooding is possible in Biysk, Barnaul, Kamen-on-Ob, as well as in the area of ​​the Chumysh River - this year the largest amount of water reserves in the snow cover is concentrated there - 201% of the norm, this is 162% of the maximum snow reserve,” the publication leads words of Mr. Luciger.

The next cold snap, which awaits the Altai Territory in the coming days, will weaken the revelry of the elements. Meanwhile, precipitation in the region is still continuing, but on March 25, instead of many days of rain, at least it started to snow. “By the weekend the temperature can drop to -18-25°C. This process is favorable for the flood - it will bring down the current thaw and give a large ice crust, which will break down more slowly,” said the head of the Center for Hydrometeorology.

The authorities of the Altai Territory are monitoring the situation in Biysk and Barnaul, Bystroistoksky, Krasnoshchekovsky and Charyshsky districts, which suffered from in 2014. In total, about 12,000 people could be affected by floods in these areas. In the regional center, 10.5 million rubles were allocated to prepare for the flood, and a reserve of 40 million rubles was created in the city to eliminate and prevent potential emergencies.

The head of the administration of Barnaul, Igor Savintsev, noted that with the water level in the Ob 640 centimeters above the zero of the water metering station, “big water” can come to the suburban villages of Zaton and the village of Ilyicha, these are 324 houses with a population of 1608 people. In Bystroistoksky district, four settlements with a population of more than 5 thousand people can fall into the flood zone, in Charyshsky district - five settlements with a population of 3964 people and 58 infrastructure facilities, including eight bridges of regional importance.

At the moment, the Ministry of Emergency Situations and municipal authorities are preparing temporary accommodation points, cleaning storm sewers in cities, river beds, checking hydraulic structures, and building dams. As part of the command and staff exercises of the Russian Emergencies Ministry, which are held in the Altai Territory on March 24 and 25, a high alert regime was introduced for all departments in the region.

Let's add, already at night on March 25, a significant warming and precipitation in the form of rain with melt and storm waters a number of houses in the Central District of Barnaul. Emergency brigades throughout the night were engaged in pumping water.

One of the first documented floods happened in Barnaul in the spring of 1793. As early as April 24, the frost reached -7°C and the Ob did not open from the ice. After a thaw and heavy rains, the water in Barnaulka began to rise. On May 3, she broke through the protected coast and rushed to the Hospital Line (now Krasnoarmeisky Prospekt). Production at the silver smelter was stopped. The confrontation lasted about 20 days. The flood washed away 123 thousand 500 pounds of ore. The water carried away 11 thousand 701 pounds of harvested charcoal and destroyed 10 houses. Then the Novopavlovsky plant on Kasmal found itself in a difficult situation.

Alexey Labanov.

The history of monitoring the water level in the Ob in Barnaul has been going on since 1893. In the 20th century, the largest floods in Altai occurred in 1920, 1928, 1937, 1954, 1958, 1969. The historical maximum rise in the water level was recorded in 1937. On May 16, the Ob rose 763 cm above the graph of the zero point of the water gauge. The flood developed according to the same scenario: the snow that year was more than normal, the ice drift began only in the first days of May, and heavy rains fell during it. According to eyewitnesses, then the water reached the territory where the Old Bazaar is now located.

Another major flood in Altai happened in 1969. At that time, the water level did not reach the maximum level by 30 cm - the rise of the Ob in the Barnaul region to 737 cm was recorded. Then, due to the overlap of the first and second flood waves, high water stood for a long time. Because of the elements, the Chemal hydroelectric power station was seriously damaged at the same time.

Since 1985, the critical water level near Barnaul of 520 cm has been exceeded 14 times. The river drowned the villages of Zaton and Ilyicha. During this period, five times the water level in the river exceeded the mark of 600 cm above the zero post, which led to the flooding of a significant part of the city. The last major flood was in the region in 2010. Due to severe freezing of the soil, snowy winter and rapid snowmelt, the Ob in the Barnaul region rose by 643 cm. Several regions of the region were flooded. This year, with the most unfavorable development of events, meteorologists predict a rise in the water level to 600-670 cm.

This year, water has already set records in three settlements of the region. reached its all-time high on June 1st. At 23.00, her level was 713 centimeters, she also broke the record of 2010 (580 cm). On June 1, at 8.00, an indicator of 671 cm was recorded here. The previous maximum rise in the water level in was immediately beaten by 136 cm. The record of 1991 (271 cm) was broken on May 29-30. The water here rose to 407 cm that day.

Recall, for the entire history of observations.

As a result of floods in the Altai Republic, according to the latest data, six people died. There are missing people. By Monday, the situation in the Altai Mountains began to improve, the water began to decline, but in the Altai Territory, almost 3,000 houses were under water. In Biysk, the flood flooded the city center.

1. In the Republic of Altai, floods destroyed 230 kilometers of roads and washed out 1.5 kilometers of the M-52 federal highway connecting the region with Mongolia.

2. In addition, as a result of the disaster, 15 bridges were destroyed in the republic. Restoration of the roadway will be possible as the water subsides.

3. Rescuers in emergency mode are struggling with flooding in the Altai Territory. The water level in the Biya River continues to rise and exceeded the water gauge by more than seven meters.

4. In the flood zone of Biysk, the water rose above six meters. It has been established that 2,405 citizens, including 417 children, are in places of flooding. 247 people were evacuated, most of them settled with their relatives and friends.

5. In total, 2,988 residential buildings remain flooded in the Altai Territory, of which 7,563 people were evacuated.

6. Heavy rains led to the exit from the banks of the Biya, Katun, Anuy, Charysh, Maima rivers.

7. A sharp deterioration in the weather led to a flood on the rivers of the Altai Territory, the republics of Khakassia and Altai.

8. Thousands of houses are flooded in the regions, rescuers are evacuating the victims. A state of emergency has been introduced in all three regions.

9. According to the authorities of the Republic of Altai, six villages in the region are currently without power, as “48 power transmission towers were simply washed away.” The power engineers plan to return the light to the settlements as the water recedes.

10. As of Monday, 60 settlements remain flooded in the region. In general, as the Ministry of Emergency Situations noted today, the flood situation in Altai, Khakassia and Tuva has stabilized.

11. According to the latest data, six people became victims of the elements in the Altai Territory and the Altai Republic.

If in the first hours the inhabitants of the flooded houses did their best to save their property and pets, then at the weekend it was already about health and life. The residents of Biysk refused to leave their homes to the last: they were afraid of marauders and tried to save as many things as possible, dragging them to the attics. But the water backed up, and it became vital to get out of the water captivity, according to Biysk Rabochiy.

Viktor Eremeev from the old Zelenka flatly refused to leave the drowned housing. Thermoses with hot tea, sandwiches and pilaf, wrapped in ten plastic bags, were brought to him by his wife on a boat, each time persuading him to sail away with her. The water is cold, the air too, but what threatens hypothermia - no need to say.

Raisa Podvoiskaya in the area of ​​the first post has been regularly "floating" for 30 years, but there was no thought of "surrendering", as she herself says. To all persuasions to leave the flooded house, Raisa Ivanovna only shakes her head, but ironically breaks through the evacuation of her goats.

Elena, a resident of the village of Malougrenevo, says that the water backed up at an unprecedented speed. She is at home with two kids. And the attic, which at first seemed like salvation, could turn out to be a fatal trap. Call the rescuers: "Come! Take it!" the woman became when she realized that it was no longer possible to stay in the house. But here's the problem: walking waist-deep in icy water, and even with two children at a constantly rising river level, is deadly. Employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations arrived by boat and helped to get out.

We received remarks, reproaches in the absence of rescuers from many parts of the city: from the flax mill, from Kozhevenny Lane, from Sorokino. Someone said that there were no rescuers at all, someone complained that they were coming, but slowly. The service itself admits that there were not enough boats and wetsuits, so they turned to the biychans who own watercrafts for help. According to the city administration on Sunday, 243 people, 69 pieces of equipment, including 16 water crafts, were involved in the elimination of the emergency, of which 143 people were from the Ministry of Emergency Situations, 11 pieces of equipment, including 9 boats.

BR journalists were also at the center of events. From ourselves we want to add: people worked for wear and tear. For three days, the faces did not change - the same rescuers worked for two or three days without sleep. Often one could see how people, without taking off their wetsuits, fall exhausted, only the boat touched the shore. Five to ten minutes to sleep here, in the boat, in cold water, when all around is noise, bustle and sometimes it rains. And back to work.

On the other side of the trouble, people were sitting on the roofs waiting for help, water and bread. And everyone has their own truth.
As IA "Amitel" has already reported, in Biysk 3,712 people (+150) fall into the flooding zone, of which 1,012 are children (+87), 1,784 people (+ 153) were evacuated from flooded houses, of which 229 children (+32) were resettled according to relatives and acquaintances, 71 people, including 5 children, were accommodated in temporary accommodation centers, 14 people, including 7 with limited mobility, applied for medical assistance with subsequent hospitalization.

An emergency regime has been introduced throughout the Altai Territory, however, the situation in Charyshsky, Biysky, Krasnogorsky, Krasnoshchekovsky, Soloneshensky, Soltonsky districts and the science city of Biysk is under special control due to flooding.

Throughout the 20th century, about every 10 years, the Altai Territory was overwhelmed by severe floods. This sad statistic will definitely include June 2014: a new natural disaster in the areas of the Ob, Biya, Katun and Charysh rivers broke all previous records in terms of the scale of destruction. "Bolshaya Voda" held out for more than a month, the cost of restoration work was estimated at 5.9 billion rubles, and the threat of new seasonal floods remained high.

Distress picture

But at the end of May, due to heavy rains in the south of Siberia, a sharp rise in the water level occurred in the rivers of the region. As a result, more than 330 bridges and crossings were demolished, more than 430 km of roads were destroyed and 15,000 houses were flooded.

According to preliminary estimates, more than 38 thousand people in the Altai Territory, the Republic of Altai, Khakassia and Tuva suffered from the disaster.

They didn’t expect big water: in their forecasts for May, weather forecasters assumed that the monthly rainfall would be within normal limits - no more than 51 mm, at the end of April, emergency services and local authorities expected that the rise would not exceed 50 cm. A few days before the disaster, the minister natural resources and ecology Sergey Donskoy promised that in Yakutia, in the Magadan region and in other regions where there is a threat of flooding, they will install equipment for accurate forecasting, examine the bottom of the rivers, and calculate the hypothetical latitude of the spill. But the authorities failed to fulfill all these promises. The only thing that the Ministry of Emergency Situations managed to do was to double its local units.

The state of emergency in the Altai Territory, the Republic of Altai and Khakassia was introduced on May 31. And in the official message of the Ministry of Emergency Situations dated June 2, it was reported that as a result of heavy rains that took place from May 26 to May 30 in the Altai Republic and the southeastern regions of the Altai Territory, the water level in the Biya, Charysh, Katun, Anuy, Peschanaya rivers increased significantly and in the Ob River. The same message said that on June 2 and 3 the water level in the Ob River in the Barnaul region could reach dangerous levels.

The Ministry of Emergency Situations launched a large-scale operation, concentrating more than 2,000 rescuers in the disaster area and gradually pulling up new forces. According to the head of the department Vladimir Puchkov, aviation, boats, boats, special equipment, equipment and equipment for working in flood zones were involved. At the same time, temporary accommodation centers for the victims were deployed.

Plenipotentiary of the President of the Russian Federation in the Siberian Federal District Nikolai Rogozhkin ordered to increase the flow of water through the dam of the Novosibirsk hydroelectric power station. As a result, on June 7, the discharge from the Novosibirsk reservoir was increased by 30%, but this measure was taken only to stabilize the flood situation in the Altai Territory, which by that time had already fully felt the destructive power of the flood.

The work of rescue services was complicated by the reluctance of residents of flood-affected and potentially dangerous areas to evacuate

For the population of Altai, flooding is a common occurrence. Although the municipal authorities took precautionary measures to alert about the threat, the majority still believed that the authorities were overestimating the threat this year. As a result, few people were prepared for the fact that the seasonal high water would turn into a flood. So, the water easily overcame the critical mark of 420 cm for Biysk and exceeded it by almost three meters, the maximum recorded value was 713 cm. As a result, those who did not leave their homes in advance, the rescuers were forced to remove from the roofs. Nevertheless, some victims insist that there was no information about the impending flood: people, leaving the already half-flooded dwellings, barely had time to pick up their documents.

Analyzing the actions of various services in an emergency situation, independent experts noted the effective work of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, at least in terms of information, and the efficiency of law enforcement agencies. From their point of view, most of the questions were caused by the level of preparation for such cataclysms of individual municipalities, but here a number of controversial issues were ready to be attributed to the lack of material and technical base.

After June 10, the water level in the rivers began to decline actively. But even after almost two weeks, many residential buildings and summer cottages remained flooded. In total, more than 3,000 people and over 800 pieces of equipment were involved in helping the population and eliminating the consequences in the Siberian Federal District. On June 23, Eduard Chizhikov, the chief military expert of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told reporters that all urgent emergency and restoration work had been completed in the emergency zone. Victims have only to wait for their turn, when the authorities will be able to pay compensation for partially or completely lost property.

Forecast errors

High accuracy of river flood forecasting can be ensured by rigorous and continuous collection of statistical data on the state of river flow and its dependence on precipitation. In theory, it is possible to predict the arrival of floods in the Altai Territory: the primary cause of floods in this region is precipitation, and in second place is the melting of snow on mountain slopes. At the beginning of the summer of 2014, these factors overlapped each other, which led to disaster.

Then, it would seem, it is enough to predict heavy rainfall in order to meet the impending elements fully armed. But with the current development of meteorological science, weather forecasters from the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia are able to accurately predict the weather only six days in advance. It is impossible to determine the nature of the weather for two months, and even the most developed network of hydrometeorological stations can provide a summary only for the coming week. And this situation is typical not only for Russia, but for the whole world.

Satellite observations could play a certain role in flood prevention, and a special Operational Monitoring Center is now operating under Roscosmos

However, its task is not to make forecasts, but to process data after the event, including at the request of the Ministry of Emergency Situations. According to Lev Desinov, head of the laboratory for remote sensing of the Earth from space at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, there are no active programs for forecasting natural disasters in Russia. He cites Taiwan, where four centers are involved in space monitoring, as an example of an alternative policy.

The Institute of Water and Environmental Problems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences believes that in order to prevent flooding in the future, it is necessary to create a modern information modeling system for predicting the hydrological behavior of the rivers of the Altai Territory, which would supply operational data to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, administrative structures and the population. Such systems already exist in Western Europe and the United States, but Russia lacks the funds and qualified specialists for this.

Flood in Altai. The water level in the river reached its maximum - 711 cm.

Is repetition possible?

According to the head of the Altai Regional Hydrometeorological Center Alexander Luciger, the flood could have been more destructive. At its very beginning, the rise in the water level in the Ob River near Barnaul slowed down, since the first flood wave was received by an absolutely dry floodplain. But this means that next time the situation may be more serious.

“We need such a level of organization of work that would provide timely warning and forecast of the development of events so that we have less damage and can work quickly and adequately,” said Alexander Karlin, head of the administration of the Altai Territory, at an operational meeting on June 4. He was supported by the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Vladimir Puchkov, who proposed to “shake up Roshydromet”.

But so far, in areas prone to flooding, the only way out is the construction of flood control reservoirs, which equalize the flow of rivers depending on the time of year. But they can not give an absolute guarantee of security. These reservoirs are mainly designed for floods and floods of special power, which occur no more than once every 100 years. In other cases, the task of preserving the hydroelectric complex itself comes to the fore, damage to which can lead to even greater damage. It is also worth adding that 219 hydraulic structures are currently operating in the Altai Territory, but the results of the audit revealed that 13 of them are not assigned to any department and are not properly serviced.

Experts do not rule out that the catastrophe may happen again in the future. According to the general assessment, in the Altai Territory there are structures necessary to prevent it, but many of them are either not designed for such a strong revelry of the elements, or are not maintained in proper condition, or were destroyed as a result of the last flood.

For residents of Biysk, every flood becomes an occasion for active discussion of the need for a system of barriers in dangerous sections of the Biya River and clearing the bottom of silt, which makes it difficult for water to drain into the soil. Shortly before the flood was to be opened in the nearby village of Zeleny Klin, the total cost of the project was estimated at 490 million rubles. But this flood pointed to errors in the calculations - the water level exceeded the planned height of the dam by half a meter. This year, 80 million will be allocated for the start of construction, but plans must be revised taking into account new facts.

Based on the results of the survey, 42 potentially hazardous hydraulic structures, eight of them in Barnaul, Altai and Biysk regions, were recognized as in need of repair

It was also found that almost everywhere the restoration of protective embankments and the construction of coastal fortifications are required. The beds of 14 rivers and two streams will need to be cleared of silt, which will increase their capacity and minimize potential spills.
Traditionally, during the period of ice melting, blasting is carried out - this is how rivers destroy the formed hummocks in certain places. But in the case of the flood of the Charysh River this year, only on June 11, sappers began work to eliminate the consequences and return it to its previous course - the river laid a new route along the main street of the village of Talitsa in the Soviet District. At the same time, the dam installed on this river was completely destroyed by the flood, so the local administration and the Ministry of Emergency Situations are considering the possibility of building a capital protective hydraulic structure here.

Specialists from the Institute of Water and Environmental Problems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences consider the construction of a hydroelectric power station and a reservoir on the Katun River one of the ways, if not to prevent, then to minimize the damage from floods. As Valery Savkin, an employee of the institute, stated: “Reservoirs are created, among other things, in order to take on part of the flood wave. Right now we can’t estimate what the damage would be, but the reservoir would certainly help.”

On June 29, the Ministry of Emergency Situations announced that the flood situation in the region had completely returned to normal and now it was time for restoration work - a more difficult stage than any emergency rescue activities. And although according to numerous reports and statements in the press, it can be said that the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the administration of the affected region worked efficiently, nevertheless, in the future, emergencies of this magnitude need to be prevented - the budget of the Russian Federation is not able to regularly allocate 5.9 billion rubles to eliminate the consequences, namely, this is the approximate cost of restoration work in the Altai Territory.

Officials say that a complete audit of all hydraulic structures will be carried out and the passports of the territories will be revised: the list of 54 settlements subject to the threat of flooding can be expanded to 107 affected this year. And, most importantly, an early exchange of reliable information about the catchment area in the Altai rivers will be established between scientists, weather forecasters, government officials and emergency services.