Step 5: Adjusting the boundaries of the hypothetical areas The boundaries of the hypothetical areas determined in step 3 should be adjusted to account for differences in the labor required to cover these areas. At the same time, the analyst must remember that the sales potential

Stage three. Implementation 7. Stay where you are YES? 8. Reinforce your NO? 9. Lead negotiations to

Yesterday, we already analyzed the prospects for our sites for March, realizing that we should tune in to a decline in the market.

But before setting new targets, let's make sure that the previous reduction targets for securities are met.

ROSNEFT: So, let's start with the shares of Rosneft, which finished February at the level of 331.1 rubles, showing a decrease of 17.35%. Perceptible for one month! The “diamond” figure, which I found earlier, has already been fully implemented, the growth from November to January was leveled, and the uptrend from March 2016 was broken down.

The players were so carried away by the decline that since mid-February we have not seen a single serious bounce up. In my opinion, it is possible to stabilize prices in the range of 316-332 rubles, because it corresponds to the consolidation period from May to August 2016, and the level of 315-316 rubles is duplicated as a strong level of demand on the weekly and monthly charts in the form of EMA21 moving averages on the months and EMA100 in weeks.

Thus, I would start thinking about the resumption of medium-term purchases only when approaching the zone of 315-318 rubles.

TATNEFT: Ordinary shares of Tatneft fell by 16.16% to 340.95 rubles in the last month. They also worked out the “Head-shoulders” reversal figure completely, even overdid it a little. But these shares have so far managed to remain within the framework of the growth since December 2015. trend. Holding the level of 340 rubles can be considered a positive signal for these securities, as it may create grounds for a rebound game.

However, if in the coming sessions this milestone does not withstand, then we are waiting for Tatneft shares to decline to the region of 310-312 rubles - these are the minimum levels of consolidation in June-September 2016. This area is also indicated by a 100% Fibonacci correction from the growth of 310.2-448.65 rubles.

GAZPROM: The shares of the gas monopolist finished February at the level of 134 rubles and fell by 10.55%.

The "triangle", which knocked the quotes down, has already reached its goals, but the decline in securities continued up to a serious support level, which was located in the region of 133.2-134 rubles. Finally, the gap from 10/31/2016 was completely closed.

But there is also bad news, in the papers of the gas giant, the trend from January 2016. also did not resist. And if the current levels do not serve as a springboard for the stocks to rebound upwards, then we will wait for the stocks lower.

Although I believe that the likelihood of such a scenario is negligible, because the shares fell significantly below this zone for the last time only in January 2016, when they fell to the level of 122.75 rubles. Usually they managed not to lower even the “shadows” of their candles below 132 rubles. By the way, it was this value that the papers tested yesterday, so there is a chance that they will start moving upward from here.

By the way, Gazprom is having a meeting of the Board of Directors today, at which the Board of Directors will discuss the prospects for the implementation of the dividend policy during 2017-2019. Good news may stir up interest in this issuer's papers.

PS Tomorrow we'll talk about metallurgists.

At the heart of what we call Metaphysics is the body. Because Metaphysics is tied to a goal. And the goals are very tightly connected with the body. Now you will understand what we mean.

Compass goals

We all come into this world naked and we leave naked. Everything that sticks to us throughout life sticks only for a brief moment between birth and death.

However, the body, that collection of muscles, bones, ligaments, fluids, skin and other things - all this comes with you into the world and leaves the world with you too. Some views believe that the body is you.

It turns out that the body is a thing that is always with you. After all, what happens to you happens to your body. Even if it happened in your imagination (remember how you once cut a juicy, bright, sour lemon.

What was its color, smell, taste? How did he splash under the edge of a knife and the drops remained on the blade and dirty his hands? At good imagination all sorts of reactions such as salivation should have gone in the body.

For the body, reality and fiction are quite identical if they cause the same reaction). The body is such a big compass, tuned in to everything. But if he does not specify goals, then he will be left to himself. How does this happen?

The body itself is a complex and interesting thing, but this combination of meat and liquids has a control center. In fact, there are even two of them.

Word Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman (from Think Slow, Decide Fast):

System 1 works automatically and very quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of intentional control.
System 2 highlights the attention needed for conscious mental effort, including complex calculations. System 2 actions are often associated with a subjective sense of activity, choice, and concentration.

That is, it turns out there is an ordinary manager who thinks that everything belongs to him. And there is a real owner, the master of the situation, who is assigned the role of a very attentive third-party observer, and sometimes even an anti-crisis manager.

This is kind of like a “man from Kemerovo”, who will come and silently fix everything. But in fact, he will not come anywhere, because 99% of the time he is already doing what he does not let you die: he pumps blood through the veins, breathes through the lungs, filters with the kidneys and does God knows how many other things. These two systems are also called the conscious and the unconscious (or subconscious).

Both are compass targets. More precisely, not even a compass, but an arrow. The first sets goals (remember, we started talking about goals?), the second, so be it, chooses the moment to deliver you to these goals. The blue part of the arrow points to the North, but the red part of the arrow also points to you.

Guess what is the main and only tool for checking the setting and achievement of the goal? Your body! Basically, you don't have any other way to get feedback except to see, feel, hear (sound or smell). And the body copes with these tasks perfectly.

The human eye is able to distinguish individual photons of light. The finger can feel the weight of a speck of dust. The taste can be distinguished shades, as well as the smell. It's not a matter of your body, it's a matter of tuning your perception. That is, this is an attitude to the interpretation of signals, an attitude to feedback.

That is why when setting goals, they are checked. Adjustment of goals is also a matter of verification, feedback. Otherwise, how will you know that you have reached your goal?

The simplest explanation of the process of setting and achieving a goal is this (it also explains how and why it works). First, you set a goal, describe it, as well as what, when and where you will hear, see and feel when you achieve it.

Visualization and other similar techniques are often used for this. All this is done so that you get a state in your body, as if you have already reached the goal.

If everything is done correctly, then every morning immediately after getting up, the discrepancy between where you are now and where you should be, judging by the sensations of the body at the time of setting the goal, will itch in you.

And the body will try to automatically close this gap. Every morning. From day to day. If the blue part of the arrow points to the target, the red part will always point to you. As soon as you lose the target from your focus, the red part is already looking past. This means that you need to correct the position of the compass.

In fact, there are techniques that, on the contrary, are built on the quickest forgetting of the goal. We will consider them too. But it is important for us now to understand the simplest way. The cycle is not over yet.

Rating agency "Expert RA" has prepared the next rating of management companies. Companies have been much more enthusiastic about disclosure this year. This was partly due to the improvement of the rating methodology with the support of the National League of Managers and the supervisory board. Partly - the sharply increased competition between managers, because the hopes for an ultra-rapid growth in demand for their services have not yet materialized.

In comparison with last year, in the first half of this year, the growth rate of funds in trust management has significantly decreased - in the first half of 2004, the growth of assets in trust management amounted to 16% against 92% in the first half of 2003. Relatively successfully, managers worked with mutual funds - the demonstrated yields turned out to be significantly higher than the yields on NPFs. Largely due to this, in the group of leaders (rating A ++), for example, two new companies appeared at once - "Management Center" and "Pioglobal Asset Management", whose activities are primarily focused on mutual funds. However, it is worth noting that, despite this, the segment of mutual funds as a whole suffered the most: the growth of assets in trust management in the first half of 2004 averaged 21% against 135% (!) in the same period of 2003.

Growth retardation

The sharp slowdown in the trust management market is explained by the influence of a number of factors.

First of all, the unfavorable situation on the financial markets led to a decrease in quotations. Despite years of efforts to shape the stock market and the experience of several crises, the authorities often continue to act clumsily. What, for example, cost investors the Yukos case, another banking microcrisis. As a result, the increase in assets was not so great (in many cases they even depreciated), and the flow of new customers decreased.

Andrey Uspensky, CEO management company"Pioglobal Asset Management":

In the short term, the market is very great importance It has political factor. Take the same situation with Yukos - there is a drop of 10-13% almost daily, take the situation with Gazprom: the deputy's request - minus 14%. This, of course, does not bring certainty to the minds of our investors, who already have a very short investment horizon - for mutual funds it is about four to six months.

In addition, market growth is significantly constrained by the lack of investment retail in Russia. Which is not surprising: retail work in the financial market today is unprofitable for most companies.

Anatoly Gavrilenko, General Director of the management company "Leader":

Despite the fact that financial market has existed in Russia for quite a long time, we still do not have retail investment banks. And since there is no retail, and pension retail schemes cannot work properly, there are no channels. Yes, this area is expanding, but the growth rate is clearly not what was predicted a few years ago. Here is the banking retail

The second ranking of management companies was compiled in close cooperation with the National Management League (NLU), and also under the supervision of a supervisory board, which included: Bloodless Alexander, Head of the Department for Regulation and Control of Collective Investments Federal Service stock market (FFMS) of Russia; Brusnikin Nikolay, General Director of NP "Project Center", expert of the Tacis project "Pension Reform"; Captain Maxim, Mutual Fund Expert at PBN Company ; Nikitina Irina, head of department for work with NLU management companies; Podoynitsyn Andrey, President of the NLU.

Has been done teamwork to improve the rating methodology. Taking into account the amendments made to the methodology, the activity of the management company was evaluated according to three main blocks of criteria:

1. The stability of the company in the market (the amount of funds in trust management, the amount of own funds, the company's experience, the professionalism of employees, diversification client base).

2. Quality of investment portfolio management (market share dynamics, portfolio management efficiency).

3. Trust on the part of clients (structure of the client base, ownership structure and information transparency).

The situation on the trust management market that has changed since last year necessitated adjustment of the weights of the blocks, in addition, a number of criteria were added that made it possible to more accurately assess the position and performance of companies in each of the market segments. In particular, in this year the efficiency of work and the dynamics of the company's share were evaluated separately for the markets of mutual funds and non-state pension funds. The criteria included diversification of the client base, which made it possible to take into account the company's marketability to some extent when assessing.