Android Sophia is the first robot in the world to receive a passport of a citizen of Saudi Arabia. Sophia has artificial intelligence, is equipped with visual information processing functions and facial recognition technology, and speaks English and Russian. She became widely known for her humanoid appearance. appearance and behavior. These facts give me every reason to believe that by 2050 androids will become citizens of the most different states peace.
Last year, a Chinese engineer married a robot. own production, who was named Ying Ying. And if now this news is read more like a joke or an incident, then in the 60s of the 21st century, marriage with an android will be commonplace.
My prediction (I already published it): evaluating biointelligence and AI, it can be noted that today they are approximately equal - 100 HIC (an indicator supreme expression consciousness). However, if more than a million people participate in the improvement of AI (data from the Internet), and only 3% of them are true creators of the “mind” of AI, then every 10 years they will enrich AI HIC by 0.01 HIC each, by 2027 HIC potential artificial intelligence will be equal to 300 HIC, by 2037 it will already be 600 HIC, by 2047 it will be 900, and in 2057 it will be 1200 HIC, etc., etc. And this is just a pessimistic forecast. In this case, the HIC of a person will remain the same. AI will be 15 times smarter than AI. What are the chances for BI to live together in this case?
Let me give you the following figures: in 2016 alone, European banks closed 9.1 thousand branches and laid off about 50 thousand employees: technology takes over routine work, and customers prefer online service. Because of this, in the next 10 years, the global financial sector will lose another 1.7 million employees. In India, by 2020, half of the 4 million programmers will be laid off, as their work will be performed by algorithms. More than three million Russians holding the positions of accountants, lawyers, administrative officers and personnel specialists will not be in demand in the next 5 years. By 2050, 50 percent of employees in the developed world will lose their jobs.
Artificial intelligence will constantly be in the trend of its own development. While a person does not want to improve himself. But there is still time.
Therefore, I personally appeal in all languages to all higher authorities with the following idea: to hold a discussion on limiting the development of artificial intelligence at the UN site. Only by uniting can we develop principles that will protect humanity, guide developments in the field of AI and global automation in a safe direction.
It is an undeniable fact that today each of us has to use the help of artificial intelligence - whether being on social networks, accessing banking services, plunging into the world of video games or deciding domestic issues- calling a taxi, recording the child in Kindergarten while checking the electronic diary, looking through the fines for wrong parking. We welcome the use of electronic document management, assistant bots, smart homes and other technical innovations that facilitate our everyday life. However, not everyone pays attention to the consequences of human dependence on machine algorithms.
Every day, Internet technologies are turning into an uncontrollable mass of programs that constantly receive and process data, and most importantly, already make decisions for us. Now it is not we ourselves, but the Internet that sets our life directions and standards. Artificial intelligence is constantly learning to imitate most of human activity - both physical and intellectual, claiming not only our jobs, but human nature itself.
Are we also thinking that the power to change society is shifting to corporations investing in AI development, as well as directly to those who are designing the systems of the future - to software developers, artificial intelligence specialists and robotics?
Computer systems are penetrating deeper into our daily lives, the contradictions between augmented intelligence and artificial intelligence are becoming more and more noticeable. What will be the relationship between people and thinking machines? What facts should already alert us and testify to the need for our prompt intervention?
Only we, the people, are responsible for the world of the future and for the world of the present, which is being created today.
- 116 experts, including Elon Musk, on the development of artificial intelligence from 26 countries wrote open letter to the UN against the development of autonomous weapons.
OPEN LETTER TO THE UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON THE USE OF CERTAIN WEAPONS
We, as companies that develop technologies in the field of artificial intelligence and robotics, understand that these technologies can be used to develop autonomous weapons. That is why we bear a special responsibility.
We warmly welcome the decisions of the UN Conference regarding the Convention on the Use certain types on the establishment of a Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems. Many of our scientists and engineers are eager to offer their technical solutions.
... Deadly autonomous weapons threaten to become the third revolution in military affairs. Such weapons will enable armed conflict to fight on a massive scale. This may be the most crushing and rapid war. Technology can become a weapon of terror, a weapon that despots and terrorists can use against innocent people. We cannot delay. Once Pandora's box opens, it will be almost impossible to close it. That is why we call on the Contracting Parties to find a way to protect us all from this danger.
- During an experiment conducted by programmersFacebookIn 2017, when two chatbots were asked to share three balls, two books, and one hat, the unexpected happened: the bots invented their own language.
Bob: "I can I I everything else."
Alice: "The balls have zero for me for me for me for me for me for me for me for me for."
Experts say that this dialogue is by no means nonsense: the bots found such a speech construction more convenient than the English language we are used to.
- Research conductedBoston consulting group (BCG) in 112 countries showed that 50% of employees expect reductions in the next 5 years due to the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies.
- BankSociety Generaleannounced the reduction of 15% of its branches and 900 jobs by 2020 through the implementation of AI. Previously, banksUniCredit, JP Morganhave already announced the reduction of branches for the same reason.
- The dangerous fact is that scientists are developing highly advanced AI systems to fight "bad hackers". In doing so for the greater good, they recognize that in the wrong hands their superintelligent systems will wreak havoc and destruction.
- Experts fromMicrosoft Application and Services groupin East Asia, they created an artificial program that can "experience" emotions and talk to people "like human beings." AI by nameXiaoiceanswers questions like a 17-year-old girl. If she doesn't know the topic, she can lie. If you catch her in a lie, she will get angry or embarrassed.
- Robot Sophia became a guest of Sberbank's business breakfast at the World Economic Forum in Davos. During the meeting, the topic of the prospects for the development of artificial intelligence in the world was discussed. German Gref asked the robot whether it is worth limiting the development of artificial intelligence.
"People shouldn't be dismissive of these changes, but a healthy dose of criticism is welcome. Don't judge us by movies like The Terminator," Sophie replied.
So, the use of AI in our lives has become an irreversible process.
To refuse it today is as impossible as to stop technical progress. The development of "weak" or applied intelligence, designed to automate the solution of one or more tasks, is gaining momentum and is already carrying social consequences. What to expect from the creation of a "strong" hypothetical artificial intelligence capable of solving an unlimited range of intellectual tasks? Who will provide control in order to avoid massive violation of human rights, who is responsible for developing the legal framework for the management and use of AI, who determines and approves security regulations, who audits the use of AI?
I ask you to support my appeal to create a discussion of this most important topic today on national and international platforms.
Presidents of Russia, China, USA, Chancellor of Germany,
prime ministers of Israel, Spain, Georgia,
other heads of government
to all Nobel Prize winners,
presidents of national academies of sciences,
Chief Rabbi of Russia Berl Lazar,
His Holiness Pope Francis,
His Holiness
Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill,
Most Holy and Blessed
Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II,
Chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia,
Chairman of the Presidium of the Spiritual Administration
Muslims of the Asian part of Russia
Grand Mufti,
Co-Chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia,
Sheikh Nafigulla Ashirov,
Head of the traditional Buddhist sangha of Russia
XXIV Pandito Khambo Lame Dambe Badmaevich Ayusheev
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!
Belonging to the intellectual and social elite of today should encourage you to speak out on the most important issue our civilization: the creation of a deadly technology for all mankind - artificial intelligence. Today the world is watching how rapid technological development leads to a profound transformation of the entire human environment. Before our eyes, cardinal changes are taking place not only in the ecological and technical landscape of life, but also in the information and communication sphere. This process is not extensive in nature - it is not just the expansion of the technical and economic capabilities of man through the mobilization of new resources of the ecosphere. No, it has a qualitative, intense scope, which affects the very essence of Homo sapiens - the sphere of his mind.
The belief that the artificial intelligence systems being created pose a real threat to humanity is shared by many scientists. However, we are convinced that this most serious problem of the future world must be brought to the public arena - after all, it is prominent figures from the spheres of science and religion have accumulated vast knowledge about man, it is they who are able to offer a painless path for the development of robotics for a person. Otherwise, uncontrolled development and production of artificial intelligence will transform environment so fast that mass man will be forced out, enslaved or destroyed. “There is no such law of physics that would prevent the interaction of particles to create artificial intelligence of its own and completely independent logical combinations that are inaccessible to human brain", - believes famous physicist Stephen Hawking.
Artificial intelligence is one of the fastest growing industries interdisciplinary knowledge. The cognitive basis of such research is the latest experiments in the study of brain structures: neural networks, known as mirror neurons responsible for learning and communication, as well as more complex multidimensional network structures of brain organization (connectomes and cognitomes). Already today, the young and closed company Vicarius (USA) is creating a digital model of the neocortex (the new cortex of the artificial brain), capable of sensory perception, conscious thinking and speech. Upon reaching this goal, not only the labor market will be radically changed, since hundreds of millions and even billions of people will be forced out of it. There will come a level of AI development at which a person will become a robot or disappear altogether. The unmanaged development of AI poses a potentially greater danger than nuclear weapon, any other challenges of our time. Science should serve people, not oust people. If artificial intelligence is in constant development, then the person himself, without the intervention of biotechnology, will not be able to reach his level. According to our projections, by 2035 only people with higher education will lose more than 300 million jobs, and by 2070 this figure will be almost a billion. Where will the person go? In addition to our planet, he has nowhere to live.
States do not invest in programs aimed at the development of biointelligence. Genetic Engineering did not start working on such projects at all. In the end, artificial intelligence will replace humans. To prevent this from happening, genetic engineering methods and organic means should be used (nano-tweezers and atom assembler devices can effectively serve this purpose). In addition, in the very near future it is required to legally limit the development of artificial intelligence.
We notice with pain that AI is firmly introduced into our lives at high speeds. The “Pepsi generation” already today identifies itself with the “me and gadget” system, sincerely finding such a synthesis “cool” and fashionable. There is a psychological addiction of people to communication with him, dependence on him and complete submission to him are fixed. Such "dehumanization", alas, is the predicted result of a thoughtless and irresponsible superstructure - artificial intelligence over natural consciousness. Cyber dependence contradicts the system of axiology (good - evil) of a person, his moral and religious views.
Today, for humanity, a dialogue on ways to determine the boundaries of the development of artificial intelligence is vital and urgently needed. After all, the higher its share in the sphere of civilization, the lower the real opportunities for people to realize their personal potential, to satisfy their needs for freedom, creativity, love, self-expression. Humanity is on the verge of an existential risk - artificial intelligence threatens the death of intelligent life.
We call on you and all other reputable scientists, as well as opinion leaders and heads of world religions, to gather (we are waiting for your recommendations on the meeting place) for the first consultations on opposing the implementation of vast artificial intelligence development programs. After all, business is increasing the pace of investment in AI development projects. But mankind arose without investment project. Is it possible that profit will become the grave-digger of our common family?
Robots, manipulators - of course, yes! Unlimited development of artificial intelligence - absolutely not!
This the most important problem of modernity is in dire need of your participation, help and thoughts.
This appeal in all languages of the world - English, German, French, Chinese, Japanese, Polish, Serbian, Spanish and others - is sent to all central newspapers in all countries of the world.
PS. Read about the problem of artificial intelligence in my novel "Solo Mono. Journey of the mind of the defeatist"
Getting out of the next momentary "crisis", we rarely think about future generations. Not those that will come in a couple of centuries, but those that will (and will they?) Live in 1,000 and 10,000 years. Doubts do not arise by chance: sooner or later we will have to face one of the global catastrophes- not just a large-scale disaster, but a bold point in the history of mankind.
Through the ages, individual minds have tried to look into the distant future in the ways they can: mystics like Nostradamus make "predictions", writers like H. G. Wells create fantastic works, futurologists give forecasts. And although we are still unable to prevent most of the global catastrophes, modern technologies allow some of their effects to be mitigated.
Alas, these threats are still poorly understood, perhaps because of the sense of powerlessness and fatalism associated with them. Talk about the “end of the world” has periodically arisen for thousands of years, but has anyone tried to get in the way of the apocalypse, to do anything to save them? Such units. People find it difficult to do something about a problem they have never encountered before (partly because of the "availability heuristic" - the ability of the human mind to estimate the likelihood of an event by the ease with which similar examples are recalled). When it comes to an event the likes of which has never happened in the human lifetime, we tend to underestimate the risks.
Meanwhile, the number of potential causes of the destruction of mankind does not decrease with time. On the contrary, we discover (or ourselves create) more and more new threats. An example of this is supervolcanoes, discovered in the 1970s, and nuclear threat. The probabilities of this or that global catastrophe also change over time, they can decrease because we have realized the risk and have taken any actions to prevent the threat. Thus, the emergence of sanitary standards, vaccines and antibiotics shifts the responsibility for pandemics from “ higher powers» to health authorities. Against a number of other possible catastrophes, we are still powerless (an example of such a danger is a gamma-ray burst, which can occur somewhere nearby).
Here are some possible reasons The disappearances of our civilization are only five of a rather long and periodically updated list:
1. Nuclear war.
Nuclear weapons have only been used twice in war, and now nuclear arsenals are nowhere near as huge as they were at their peak. cold war, but nuclear war is not as unlikely as it might seem. The Caribbean crisis nearly turned into a nuclear confrontation. If we assume that this happens at least once every 69 years, and the probability of the use of nuclear weapons as a result of such a conflict is about one chance in three, then the probability nuclear disaster in each particular year reaches 1:200.
Wherein Caribbean crisis- only the most famous historical example. And how many other dangerous mistakes and tense moments were there in the relations between the nuclear powers?
The main threat to the existence of mankind will not be nuclear strikes and subsequent radiation contamination (although hundreds of millions of people may fall victim to them). But only the subsequent nuclear winter is fraught with global extermination, which in best case will leave behind handfuls of people who miraculously survived hunger and disease on a cold and parched planet. However, the severity of the consequences may vary depending on the type of soot and smoke released into the stratosphere, and there are currently no reliable methods to assess the real risks.
2 Man Made Pandemic
But we can make disease worse. One of the well-known examples is the ectromelia virus (mouse pox), which, having received a “gift” from scientists additional gene, learned to infect even those individuals that were vaccinated, and became even more deadly. Recent research on the avian influenza virus has shown that its virulence can be deliberately increased.
At present, the risk of someone knowingly unleashing a potential pandemic culprit is rather small. But biotechnology is becoming more and more accessible. Governments that develop bioweapons are looking for leverage of political influence, not methods of total destruction, but the owners of "garage laboratories" can release a dangerous strain just because they can. Or for ideological reasons, as the representatives of the Aum Shinrikyo sect did (though not very successfully, unlike their other poison gas attack). Many believe that the Earth would be a better place without people.
3. Overmind
Intelligence is a powerful weapon. A tiny advantage in problem solving and group coordination, and we humans have left the apes far behind. Now their existence depends on human decisions. Being smart is profitable, so we are making a lot of efforts in this direction - from the creation of nootropic drugs to the development of artificial intelligence systems.
The problem is that smart people can really achieve their goals effectively. But the presence of intelligence in itself does not guarantee that these goals will be good. On the contrary, there is a good chance that superintelligent communities and systems will not obey generally accepted moral norms. And with amazing efficiency they will put an end to the history of mankind.
Artificial intelligence systems can very quickly move from “not yet like humans” to “much higher than humans”. Presumably, the breakthrough will come when the software becomes perfect enough to create even better algorithms. There are good reasons to believe that some technologies may begin to develop so quickly that the human mind will not be able to keep up with progress - a technological singularity will come.
At present, it is difficult for us to even imagine how dangerous certain forms of artificial intelligence can be, and what strategies to counter this threat will be effective. Meanwhile, back in the 50s and 60s of the last century, people were sure that superintelligence would appear “within the life of one generation,” but did not take any significant steps to ensure security. Perhaps they did not believe their own predictions or believed that the future was still too far away?
4. Nanotechnology
Nanotechnologies themselves are a good thing, but, as in the case of biotechnologies, the growth of their level, and at the same time their accessibility, opens up wide prospects not only for scientists and engineers, but also for attackers.
And the main problem in the field of destructive nanotechnologies is not the notorious "gray goo" (self-replicating nanorobots that devour all available matter). It is quite difficult to create such machines; biological systems are still much more efficient in matters of self-reproduction and devouring. Perhaps, sooner or later, some maniac will master this task, but there are seductive fruits hanging much lower on the tree of destructive technologies.
First of all, it is an opportunity to produce almost anything with a minimum of costs (and with an accuracy of an atom). On a planet where governments are able to "print" any weapon, including autonomous and semi-autonomous, and new "printers" to create these weapons, the arms race can become very fast, and the world - fragile. “Smart poison” capable of choosing its victim and climatic weapons are just examples of destructive high-tech “toys” that can end up in the hands of humanity.
It is difficult to judge what dangers nanotechnologies might pose, but the mere fact that someday they will be able to give us everything we want makes us wonder.
5. Unknown global threat
Perhaps the most troubling possibility in the future of mankind seems to be the presence of some mortal danger, of which we have no idea.
The “silence of the Universe” may be evidence that this unknown threat exists. We still have not found any signs of the existence of alien intelligence. Why? Is life and intelligence in the universe really such a rarity? Or do all civilizations sooner or later encounter something that leads to their extinction? If there is some kind of Great Filter, other civilizations must have guessed about it - but, apparently, this did not help them ...
Whatever this unknown threat may be, it should be practically inevitable, the rule "he who is forewarned is forearmed" will not work here, no matter what technical means doomed civilization did not possess. None of the global threats formulated by humanity falls under this definition.
However, the fact that we know absolutely nothing about the potential Great Filter does not prevent scientists from speculating on this topic. Max Tegmark and Nick Bostrom have shown, based on the relative age of the Earth, that the risk of an apocalypse from unknown causes in any given year is of the order of one chance in a million.
In other works, Bostrom and other researchers identify the following potential catastrophes that can lead to the disappearance of human civilization, both natural and man-made:
Decay of the metastable vacuum;
Close gamma-ray burst;
Supervolcano eruption;
The fall of an asteroid (including as a result of its malicious deviation from a trajectory safe for the Earth);
Superflare on the Sun;
Severe weakening or complete disappearance magnetic field Earth
Another change of magnetic or sharp change of geographic poles;
Global cooling down to the freezing of the planet or other catastrophic climate changes, including those caused by human activities;
Depletion of the ozone layer (due to natural or man-made causes).
Man-made:
Unfriendly artificial intelligence;
Bioterrorism or biotechnogenic catastrophe;
Unlimited reproduction of nanorobots and other nanotech disasters;
Nuclear war, nuclear winter and global radioactive contamination;
Unsuccessful physical experiment;
A systemic crisis associated with the mutual strengthening of the above processes.
Alien attack.
However, the five possible global catastrophes considered here seem to be the most probable causes complete disappearance of our civilization. For example, when an asteroid falls, humanity must be very unlucky so that it is completely wiped off the face of the earth. The presence heuristic leads us to overestimate the dangers that constantly appear in the media and underestimate potential catastrophes that have no precedent. We must change our approach if we are still to be here in a million years.
It is known for certain that more than 99% of the species of living beings that have ever existed on our planet have disappeared. And it is unlikely that a person will live forever. Asking questions about what threatens our existence, we draw in our heads apocalyptic pictures from films about a giant meteorite or an invasion of alien invaders. But there are also less cinematic, but quite real scenarios that few people think about.
solar storms
The slightest malfunctions in the work of our giant fusion reactor- that is, the Sun, can lead to the fact that our planet can simply become either too cold or too hot to support life and the necessary ingredients for it: namely, a breathable atmosphere and water in a liquid state. The Sun is a fairly constant star compared to most other stars in our Galaxy, but its radiant flux does change over a relatively stable 11-year cycle. These changes are only 0.1%, but even this negligible figure has a rather serious impact on the Earth's climate.
Moderate storms occur regularly 100-150 times a year, but a solar superstorm can destroy a significant part of the power grid in developed countries. The most powerful storm on record was the storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event. The coronal ejection was so powerful that northern lights observed all over the world, even over the Caribbean. Solar storm disrupted operations telegraph lines USA. But in mid-nineteenth century there was no serious electrical infrastructure, but if such a cataclysm occurred today, it would disable high-voltage transformers and leave entire countries without electricity, setting us back a hundred years.
gamma burst
The sun is not the only star that threatens our planet. Large-scale cosmic energy emissions are observed in distant galaxies, they are called gamma-ray bursts. These are the brightest electromagnetic phenomena that occur during a supernova explosion, when a rapidly rotating massive star collapses, becoming either a neutron star, or a quark star, or a black hole. At the same time, in a few seconds of a flash, as much energy is released as the Sun releases in 10 billion years.
The sources of these emissions are at distances of billions of light years from the Earth, and in our Galaxy a gamma-ray burst occurs about 1 time in a million years, but if it happens close enough to the Earth, then its consequences will significantly affect all living things. According to a 2004 study, a gamma-ray burst at a distance of about 3,262 light-years could destroy up to half of the Earth's ozone layer, which is our main defense against ultraviolet radiation. At the same time, the rays from the explosion, combined with the usual solar radiation passing through a weakened ozone "filter" can cause mass extinction humanity.
If a gamma-ray burst occurs at a distance of 10 light years (within such limits from us there are about 10 stars), it will be equivalent to an atomic bomb explosion on every hectare of the sky, and on half of the planet all life will be destroyed instantly, and on the second half a little later due to secondary effects.
Supervolcanoes
A serious danger lurks in the bowels of our planet. It is known that the eruptions of the so-called supervolcanoes, of which there are about 20 on Earth, can change the climate on Earth and lead to the most terrible consequences. One thing is good - on average, such eruptions occur once every 100 thousand years.
One of the most dangerous underground forces carries the Yellowstone caldera, which measures about 55 km by 72 km, and occupies a third of the territory of the famous national park. Scientists have determined that the volcano erupted three times, last time 640 thousand years ago. The probability of a new giant eruption is estimated by scientists at 0.00014% per year.
eruption yellowstone volcano threatens all mankind. According to scientists, a huge cloud will be thrown into the stratosphere, which can hang on for a long time preventing sunlight from reaching the earth. Reducing the power of solar radiation by half will lead to a global crop failure, and the food reserves on earth are hardly enough for a couple of months. The average annual temperature on Earth can drop by 12 degrees and return to its original positions only after 2-3 years.
Other smaller volcanoes can threaten dire consequences of a different nature. For example, a volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canaries archipelago, in the event of an eruption, can cause a giant ocean wave, which is capable of flooding the Caribbean and vast areas of the US coast. One of the slopes of the volcano is unstable, and if it starts to erupt, a rock weighing half a trillion tons can fall into the ocean. It will cause a wave 650 meters high, which will not be difficult to quickly cross the Atlantic.
global pandemic
The population of our planet continues to grow, and at the same time, more than 50% of people are city dwellers. Overpopulation leads to an increase in mutations, and high density population - to the rapid spread of diseases. Apparently, this trend will only continue, and in the future we should expect the emergence of new terrible epidemics, which are capable of killing entire cities.
At the same time, antibiotics are becoming more and more useless, which is seriously concerned about the World Health Organization. The rise of antibiotic resistance threatens to set humanity back in time before the invention of penicillin, when the smallest infection became deadly. “In the absence of prompt and concerted action by many stakeholders, our world is entering an era where antibiotics are losing their effectiveness, and common infections and minor injuries that could be cured for decades can now kill again,” says the assistant. CEO WHO Health Security Dr. Keiji Fukuda.
In general, it is not difficult to imagine how a new plague epidemic will break out and doctors will have no way to stop it. Everyone knows what the Black Death is, which raged in the middle of the XIV century and destroyed almost half of the world's population, after which it took as many as 150 years to restore the population. Another terrible pandemic occurred in 1918-1919, when an estimated 50 to 100 million people died from the Spanish flu. (or about 5% of the population). With the current level of urbanization and the development of transport infrastructure, things will only get worse.
In 2010, a team of epidemiologists built computer model Nipah virus, after which we monitored how it would spread and develop. A report on the results of a computer simulation formed the basis of the film "Contagion". So fantasies of a deadly virus of unknown origin, which is rapidly spreading around the world, may well become a reality.
Resource depletion
How much oil is left in the bowels of our planet, no one knows for sure. But according to optimistic forecasts, by 2050 half of the world's oil reserves will already be pumped out. (according to released intelligence). “The first and most pressing problem that we will face by then is the end of the era of cheap natural fuel. It can be said without exaggeration that it is precisely the reserves of cheap oil and natural gas lie at the heart of modern wealthy life,” writes the fatalist writer James G. Kunstler.
The oil crisis will have horrendous consequences for which most of the world's population is not ready. And this process will affect not only industrialized countries. Over time, as oil becomes an increasingly scarce resource, more developed countries you will have to look for it where it still remains - among its weaker neighbors. will come new stage exploitation of "poor" countries by "rich" countries: more and more new armed conflicts will be unleashed in the Middle East and Africa.
An oil shortage could lead to acute shortage and other resources necessary for the life of mankind. Billions of people will go hungry because of the universal dependence on fossil fuels. As a result, all this can lead to a return to subsistence farming.
Perhaps one day humanity will get off the oil needle and replace gasoline with alcohol, which will be extracted from corn or sugar cane. However, there is none known way, with which we can produce rare earth metals, and their potential substitutes either do not exist in nature, or they have insufficient properties. And without these substances, we would have neither smartphones, nor computers, nor electric vehicles, nor any other electronics, and, accordingly, progress.
According to scientists Yale University United States, sources of rare earth metals are depleted at a tremendous rate. On the this moment About 95% of all rare earths are mined in China, and most recently, its government imposed restrictions on the export of some elements, as well as doubling their price for non-Chinese producers.
gray slime
With the development of technology, humanity should be afraid that these technologies will get out of control and destroy their creators. One hypothetical threat is what futurologists call gray goo. (Grey Goo)- self-replicating molecular nanotechnology, which is not subject to man.
For the first time, the American scientist Kim Eric Drexler, who is called the "father of nanotechnology", spoke about the possibility of creating such a substance. The scientist considered the idea of creating nanorobots in his book Machines of Creation. AT original idea it was assumed that microscopic machines could be developed in the laboratory, but could also be randomly generated.
In 2010, DNA-based nanorobots were demonstrated for the first time, capable of finding and destroying cancer cells leaving healthy tissues unharmed. Tiny capsules release the necessary doses of drugs when a target is detected and purposefully destroy the “enemy”. As a result, it turned out that these nanorobots can exist for another month after the death of the "owner".
So far, of course, nanocyborgs are being developed solely for the benefit of people, but in theory they can both create and destroy. If, for some reason, nanobots enter the biosphere and begin to multiply endlessly, using everything they can get as material to create their copies, in fact, they can begin to absorb everything around, including the planet itself. At the same time, the hypothetical "gray goo" will be very difficult to destroy, since one surviving replicator will be enough for it to start multiplying again. If such a robot gets into World Ocean, then it will be simply impossible to destroy it.
nuclear holocaust
As long as there are 7 countries with nuclear weapons in the world, the probability of nuclear war cannot equal zero in any way, despite the fact that it can lead to the extinction of mankind or to the end of modern civilization on Earth. The reasons for this threat are quite obvious: a nuclear explosion is accompanied by a destructive shock wave, erasing everything around on the way, burning light radiation and penetrating radiation, which causes irreversible changes in matter. People who have not even received significant injuries directly from the explosion are very likely to die from infectious diseases and chemical poisoning. There is a high probability of being burned in fires or being walled up in rubble.
A nuclear explosion causes a perturbation of the electromagnetic field, which will disable electrical and radio-electronic equipment - that is, all communication lines, transformers, semiconductor devices, which will lead to the loss of all modern technologies.
Despite all the risks to which civilization will be exposed, analysts suggest that billions of people will still be able to survive a global thermonuclear war. But after it ends, nuclear winter may begin. Widespread explosions and fires will carry a huge amount of smoke and soot into the stratosphere. As a result, the sun's rays will be reflected from these particles, and the temperature on the planet will drop to the arctic everywhere, and the surviving population will have to adapt to new difficult conditions.
Ignorance and stupidity
The most underestimated threat to any society is ignorance. (unconscious or conscious) combined with passivity and laziness. Both types of ignorance are fed by means mass media- the main tools of politicians and corporations.
It is the “cult of ignorance” that is the reason why in the 21st century there are religious fundamentalists, racists, people who worship authority and demonize all those who do not do this. It is because of the widespread ignorance that people are found everywhere who deny global warming and exploit others for personal super-profit.
AT " well-fed years» Ignorance grows and the importance and necessity of education become less obvious. The younger generation, taking advantage of the system that was built by their ancestors, gradually forgets how and why this system was built. In the end, incompetent people gain power with the support of the majority, thus putting the foundations of the system itself in jeopardy.
Populism and lack of competence are a real danger to humanity. For example, researchers from the USA (country, which this moment is at the peak of prosperity as a result technical advances and effective economic policy in the 19th and 20th centuries) say that this peak can be interpreted as the beginning of the decline. At least because former candidate US Vice President Sarah Palin is not familiar with elementary scientific theories.
The figure above shows a graph in which the development of education is marked in blue, and the accompanying education is marked in red. economic development from the time of ancient Greece to the present day. Although the drawing is rather speculative, such pessimistic views are quite common among futurists.
Max Tegmark, professor of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also believes that human stupidity is the biggest problem of all mankind, and artificial intelligence is its biggest existential danger. People with limited intellectual functioning, ignoring potential disastrous consequences, may assume that artificial intelligence will develop into something capable of destroying humanity.
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Artem Luchko
It is known for certain that more than 99% of the species of living beings that have ever existed on our planet have disappeared. And it is unlikely that a person will live forever. Asking questions about what threatens our existence, we draw in our minds apocalyptic images from sci-fi movies about a giant meteorite or an invasion of alien invaders. But there are also less cinematic, but quite real scenarios that few people think about. We have decided to list some of them in this article.
solar storms
The slightest malfunction of our giant fusion reactor - that is, the Sun, can lead to the fact that our planet can simply become either too cold or too hot to support life and the necessary ingredients for it: namely, a breathable atmosphere and water in liquid state. The Sun is a fairly constant star compared to most other stars in our Galaxy, but its radiant flux does change over a relatively stable 11-year cycle. These changes are only 0.1%, but even this negligible figure has a rather serious impact on the Earth's climate.
Moderate storms occur regularly 100-150 times a year, but a solar superstorm can destroy a significant part of the power grid in developed countries. The most powerful storm on record was the storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event. The coronal ejection was so powerful that the Northern Lights were observed all over the world, even over the Caribbean. A solar storm disrupted US telegraph lines. But in the middle of the 19th century there was no serious electrical infrastructure, but if such a cataclysm occurred today, it would disable high-voltage transformers and leave entire countries without electricity, setting us back a hundred years.
gamma burst
The sun is not the only star that threatens our planet. Large-scale cosmic energy emissions are observed in distant galaxies, they are called gamma-ray bursts. These brightest electromagnetic phenomena occur during a supernova explosion, when a rapidly spinning massive star collapses into either a neutron star, a quark star, or a black hole. At the same time, in a few seconds of a flash, as much energy is released as the Sun releases in 10 billion years.
The sources of these emissions are at distances of billions of light years from the Earth, and in our Galaxy a gamma-ray burst occurs about 1 time in a million years, but if it happens close enough to the Earth, then its consequences will significantly affect all living things. According to a 2004 study, a gamma-ray burst at a distance of about 3,262 light-years could destroy up to half of the Earth's ozone layer, which is our main defense against ultraviolet radiation. At the same time, the rays from the explosion, combined with ordinary solar radiation passing through a weakened ozone "filter", can cause a mass extinction of mankind.
If a gamma-ray burst occurs at a distance of 10 light years (within such limits from us there are about 10 stars), it will be equivalent to an atomic bomb explosion on every hectare of the sky, and on half of the planet all life will be destroyed instantly, and on the second half a little later due to secondary effects.
Supervolcanoes
A serious danger lurks in the bowels of our planet. It is known that the eruptions of the so-called supervolcanoes, of which there are about 20 on Earth, can change the climate on Earth and lead to the most terrible consequences. One thing is good - on average, such eruptions occur once every 100 thousand years.
One of the most dangerous underground forces is the Yellowstone Caldera, which measures about 55 km by 72 km and occupies a third of the territory of the famous national park. Scientists have found that the volcano erupted three times, the last time 640 thousand years ago. The probability of a new giant eruption is estimated by scientists at 0.00014% per year.
The eruption of the Yellowstone volcano threatens all of humanity. According to scientists, a huge cloud will be thrown into the stratosphere, which can hang for a long time, preventing the penetration of sunlight to Earth. Reducing the power of solar radiation by half will lead to a global crop failure, and the food reserves on earth are hardly enough for a couple of months. The average annual temperature on Earth can drop by 12 degrees and return to its original positions only after 2-3 years.
Other smaller volcanoes can threaten dire consequences of a different nature. For example, a volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canaries archipelago, in the event of an eruption, can cause a giant ocean wave that can flood the Caribbean and vast areas of the US coast. One of the slopes of the volcano is unstable, and if it starts to erupt, a rock weighing half a trillion tons can fall into the ocean. It will cause a wave 650 meters high, which will not be difficult to quickly cross the Atlantic.
global pandemic
The population of our planet continues to grow, and at the same time, more than 50% of people are city dwellers. Overpopulation leads to an increase in mutations, and high population density leads to the rapid spread of diseases. Apparently, this trend will only continue, and in the future we should expect the emergence of new terrible epidemics that can kill entire cities.
At the same time, antibiotics are becoming more and more useless, which is seriously concerned about the World Health Organization. The rise of antibiotic resistance threatens to set humanity back in time before the invention of penicillin, when the smallest infection became deadly. “In the absence of prompt and concerted action by many stakeholders, our world is entering an era where antibiotics are losing their effectiveness, and common infections and minor injuries that could be cured for decades can now kill again,” says WHO Assistant Director-General for Health Security Dr. Keiji Fukuda.
In general, it is not difficult to imagine how a new plague epidemic will break out and doctors will have no way to stop it. Everyone knows what the Black Death is, which raged in the middle of the XIV century and destroyed almost half of the world's population, after which it took as many as 150 years to restore the population. Another terrible pandemic occurred in 1918-1919, when an estimated 50 to 100 million people died from the Spanish flu. (or about 5% of the population). With the current level of urbanization and the development of transport infrastructure, things will only get worse.
In 2010, a team of epidemiologists built a computer model of the Nipah virus, after which they tracked how it would spread and develop. Results Report computer simulation formed the basis of the film "Contagion". So fantasies of a deadly virus of unknown origin, which is rapidly spreading around the world, may well become a reality.
Resource depletion
How much oil is left in the bowels of our planet, no one knows for sure. But according to optimistic forecasts, by 2050 half of the world's oil reserves will already be pumped out. (according to released intelligence). “The first and most pressing problem that we will face by then is the end of the era of cheap fossil fuels. It is no exaggeration to say that it is the reserves of cheap oil and natural gas that underlie modern prosperous life,” writes the fatalist writer James G. Kunstler.
The oil crisis will have horrendous consequences, to which most of world population is not ready. And this process will affect not only industrialized countries. Over time, as oil becomes an increasingly scarce resource, the more developed countries will have to look for it where it still remains - from their weaker neighbors. A new stage of exploitation of "poor" countries by "rich" countries will begin: more and more new armed conflicts will be unleashed in the Middle East and Africa.
The shortage of oil can provoke an acute shortage of other resources necessary for the life of mankind. Billions of people will go hungry because of the universal dependence on fossil fuels. As a result, all this can lead to a return to subsistence farming.
Perhaps one day humanity will get off the oil needle and replace gasoline with alcohol, which will be extracted from corn or sugar cane. However, there is no known way by which we can produce rare earth metals, and their potential substitutes either do not exist in nature, or they have insufficient properties. And without these substances, we would have neither smartphones, nor computers, nor electric vehicles, nor any other electronics, and, accordingly, progress.
According to the calculations of scientists at Yale University in the United States, sources of rare earth metals are being depleted at an enormous rate. At the moment, about 95% of all rare earths are mined in China, and most recently, its government imposed restrictions on the export of some elements, as well as doubling the price for them for non-Chinese producers.
gray slime
With the development of technology, humanity should be afraid that these technologies will get out of control and destroy their creators. One hypothetical threat is what futurologists call gray goo. (Grey Goo)- self-replicating molecular nanotechnology, which is not subject to man.
For the first time, the American scientist Kim Eric Drexler, who is called the "father of nanotechnology", spoke about the possibility of creating such a substance. The scientist considered the idea of creating nanorobots in his book Machines of Creation. The original idea was that microscopic machines could be designed in the lab, but could also be randomly generated.
In 2010, DNA-based nanorobots were first demonstrated to be able to seek out and destroy cancer cells while leaving healthy tissue unharmed. Tiny capsules release the necessary doses of drugs when a target is detected and purposefully destroy the “enemy”. As a result, it turned out that these nanorobots can exist for another month after the death of the "owner".
So far, of course, nanocyborgs are being developed solely for the benefit of people, but in theory they can both create and destroy. If, for some reason, nanobots enter the biosphere and begin to multiply endlessly, using everything they can get as material to create their copies, in fact, they can begin to absorb everything around, including the planet itself. At the same time, the hypothetical "gray goo" will be very difficult to destroy, since one surviving replicator will be enough for it to start multiplying again. If such a robot falls into the oceans, then it will be simply impossible to destroy it.
nuclear holocaust
As long as there are 7 countries in the world that have nuclear weapons, the probability of a nuclear war cannot be equal to zero, despite the fact that it can lead to the extinction of mankind or to the end of modern civilization on the ground. The reasons for this threat are quite obvious: a nuclear explosion is accompanied by a destructive shock wave that erases everything in its path, burning light radiation and penetrating radiation, which causes irreversible changes in matter. People who have not even received significant injuries directly from the explosion are very likely to die from infectious diseases and chemical poisoning. There is a high probability of being burned in fires or being walled up in rubble.
A nuclear explosion causes a perturbation of the electromagnetic field, which will disable electrical and radio-electronic equipment - that is, all communication lines, transformers, semiconductor devices, which will lead to the loss of all modern technologies.
Despite all the risks to which civilization will be exposed, analysts suggest that billions of people will still be able to survive a global thermonuclear war. But after it ends, nuclear winter may begin. Widespread explosions and fires will carry a huge amount of smoke and soot into the stratosphere. As a result Sun rays will be reflected from these particles, and the temperature on the planet will drop to the Arctic everywhere, and the surviving population will have to adapt to new difficult conditions.
Ignorance and stupidity
The most underestimated threat to any society is ignorance. (unconscious or conscious) combined with passivity and laziness. Both types of ignorance are fed by the media - the main tools of politicians and corporations.
It is the “cult of ignorance” that is the reason why in the 21st century there are religious fundamentalists, racists, people who worship authority and demonize all those who do not do this. It is because of widespread ignorance that there are people everywhere who deny global warming and exploit others for personal super-profit.
In "well-fed years" ignorance grows, and the importance and necessity of education become less obvious. The younger generation, taking advantage of the system that was built by their ancestors, gradually forgets how and why this system was built. In the end, incompetent people gain power with the support of the majority, thus putting the foundations of the system itself in jeopardy.
Populism and lack of competence are a real danger to humanity. For example, researchers from the USA (a country that is currently at the peak of prosperity as a result of technological advances and effective economic policies in the 19th and 20th centuries) say that this peak can be interpreted as the beginning of the decline. If only because the former US vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is not familiar with elementary scientific theories.
The figure above shows a graph in which the development of education is marked in blue, and the economic development accompanying it from the time of Ancient Greece to the present day is marked in red. Although the drawing is rather speculative, such pessimistic views are quite common among futurists.
Max Tegmark, professor of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also believes that human stupidity is the biggest problem of all mankind, and artificial intelligence is its biggest existential danger. People with limited intellectual functioning, ignoring the potential catastrophic consequences, may allow artificial intelligence to develop into something capable of destroying humanity.
At the beginning of the month, the Global Challenges Foundation published its first report on the most serious threats that human civilization may face in the future. It includes both current threats and potential ones. Researchers want humanity to think and do something to remedy the situation, as there is still time to find possible ways problem solution.
Many of the threats mentioned in our list are the result of technological and life circumstances, while others have existed since the formation of our planet and the emergence of mankind.
Scientists have long warned that many species of animals and plants are disappearing. Our way of life and the way animals live depend on a complex ecosystem, and if species begin to disappear, this becomes a catalyst for irreversible processes that will negatively affect us in the future and already in the present. Even limited by territory ecological disasters have global implications.
We are talking about the collapse of the world economic and political systems as a result of making wrong decisions in these areas, the exhaustion resource base Earth and military conflicts. If this happens in one corner of the Earth, then the consequences will affect the rest of the planet. Researchers declare the threat of totalitarianism, which can become real threat today.
In the history of mankind, there have been large-scale volcanic eruptions that have caused environmental and man-made disasters. The eruption of Vesuvius led to the death of the city of Pompeii and its inhabitants. 3000 years ago, the Minoan civilization died as a result of a volcanic eruption. A super volcano will be able to throw so much ash into the atmosphere that climate change will begin on Earth, as a result of nuclear explosion. The chance that this can happen is 0.0001%.
In recent years, more and more people have begun to worry about the cause of the death of mankind as a result of global epidemics. Evidence of this can be called a large number of deaths from bird flu, which began in Asia and spread around the world quite quickly. It is also worth remembering SARS in 2003. It is not paradoxical, but technological progress, in particular the world transport system, caused the rapid spread of disease around the world and the death of millions of people. If people cannot cope with such infectious diseases, then the population of the planet will decrease sharply. This is potentially possible, as researchers give a chance of 0.0001%.
One of the versions of the death of dinosaurs 65 million years ago is the impact on the ground big asteroid. The researchers claim that an asteroid with a diameter of up to 5 km on average falls to Earth every 20 million years. As a result of such a catastrophe, countries will die, the political and economic system, the climate will change and it will be impossible to survive. Researchers give a chance of 0.00013% to this development of events.
There are military bases around the world that have nuclear missile systems installed, and this despite the fact that countries seek to reduce its number on the planet. Tensions between the US and Russia Eastern Europe in recent years, exacerbated by the crisis taking place on the territory of Ukraine, and this convinces that a nuclear war is more real than it was before. If one person presses the button, then the world is doomed. Those who survive the attack will not survive the aftermath. nuclear strike environmental situation. The chance of starting a nuclear war is 0.01%.
Per recent decades climate is going through drastic changes, and researchers consider them among the most serious threats to humanity. Conducted around the world international conferences on these issues, where the governments of many countries discuss the threats and ways out of such a situation, but they do not fulfill everything they say. If climate change occurs, it will lead to famine, droughts, mass migrations of people, rising sea levels, as a result of which many territories will become uninhabited. The consequences of climate change will be especially acute in the lives of poor countries. The chance of such a development of events is estimated at 0.01% and it can happen over the next 200 years.
Since man has learned to produce pathogens that enter the environment, there is a risk that this may play a role. bad joke with humanity and destroy it and its ecosystems. Terrorists are particularly concerned about the use of biological weapons. Genetic engineering will lead to mutations and to the inability of our body to fight pathogens. The chance of such events developing is 0.01%.
We cannot know everything, and researchers suggest that events may occur that will cause the death of mankind. Might be an attack alien civilization, perhaps, the experiments of scientists that will lead to the death of civilization. For example, the impact of aerosols on the environment was previously unknown to people, but today everyone is aware of it. The future may happen today unknown events that will destroy humanity and even the planet. The chance of developing such a situation is estimated by researchers at 0.1%.
The creation of complex robots and computers is undoubtedly of great importance for the progress of mankind, but it can also lead to a conflict between artificial intelligence and humans. While a person controls robots, but everything can change. There are military robots that can regenerate and feed using all the materials that are around. Such cyborgs can really threaten the life of civilization, as they have the highest degree survival. The chances are very high - from 0 to 10%. Why are there robots, and they are already attacking the owners.
