A person who builds the future and is eager to search is primarily interested not in surprises, but in what is more or less amenable to calculation, forecast.

Mihai Shimai

Essence and factors of geographic forecasting

From a general scientific point of view, forecasting is most often defined as hypothesis about the future development of the object. This means that it is possible to predict the development of a wide variety of objects, phenomena and processes: the development of science, a branch of the economy, social or natural phenomenon. Demographic forecasts of population growth, socio-economic forecasts of the possibility of satisfying the growing population of the Earth with food and environmental forecasts of the future environment of human life are especially common in our time. If a person cannot influence the object of forecasting, such a forecast is called passive(e.g. weather forecast).

The forecast may also consist in assessing the future economic and natural state any territory for 15-20 years ahead. Anticipating, for example, an unfavorable situation, it is possible to change it in a timely manner by planning economically and environmentally best option development. Exactly like this active a forecast that feedback and the ability to control the forecasting object, are inherent geographical science. Despite the difference in the goals of forecasting for modern geography and there are no more important geographers common task than the development of a scientifically based forecast of the future state of the geographic environment based on estimates of its past and present. It is in the conditions of high rates of development of production, technology and science that humanity especially needs this kind of advanced information, because due to the lack of foresight of our actions, the problem of the relationship between man and the environment has arisen.

In the very general view geographic forecasting -

it's special Scientific research specific prospects for the development of geographical phenomena. Its task is to determine the future states of integral geosystems, the nature of the interactions between nature and society.

AT geographical research are used, first of all, successive connections of temporal, spatial and genetic nature, since it is for these connections that causality is characteristic - essential element forecasting events and phenomena, even a high degree of randomness and probability. In turn, the complexity and probabilistic nature are specific features geoforecasting. The main operational units of geographic forecasting - space and time - are considered in comparison with the purpose and object of the forecast, as well as with the local natural and economic features of a particular region.

Success and reliability geographic forecast are determined by many circumstances, including the correct choice of the main factors and methods that provide a solution to the problem.

Geographic forecasting states natural environment multifactorial, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. It is necessary to analyze these factors and choose those that, to some extent, can control the state of the environment - stimulate, stabilize or limit factors that are unfavorable or favorable for humans its development.

These factors can be external and internal. External factors- these are, for example, such sources of impact on the natural environment as quarries and overburden dumps, which completely destroy natural landscape, smoke emissions from factory chimneys that pollute the air, industrial and domestic effluents entering water bodies, and many other sources of environmental impact. The size and strength of the impact of such factors can be foreseen in advance and taken into account in advance in the plans for the protection of nature in a given region.

To internal factors include the properties of nature itself, the potential of its components and landscapes as a whole. Of the components of the natural environment involved in the forecasting process, depending on its goals and local geographical conditions, the main ones can be relief, rocks, water bodies, vegetation, etc. But some of these components for the forecast period, for example, 25-30 years ahead, practically do not change. Thus, the relief, rocks, as well as the processes of slow tectonic subsidence or uplift of the territory can be considered relatively constant factors in the development of the natural environment. Relative stability of these factors over time makes it possible to use them as a background and a framework for the forecast.

Other much more dynamic factors, such as dust storms, drought, earthquakes, hurricanes, mudflows, have the value of probabilistic quantities in geographical forecasting. Under specific conditions, the strength of their impact on the landscape and process economic activity will depend not only on themselves, but also on the stability of the natural background on which they act. Therefore, when predicting, the geographer operates, for example, with indicators of the division of the relief, vegetation cover, mechanical composition of soils, and many other components of the natural environment. Knowing the properties of the components and their mutual relations, differences in response to external influences, it is possible to foresee the response of the natural environment in advance, both to its own parameters and to the factors of economic activity. But, even having selected not all, but only the main natural ingredients that are most appropriate for solving the problem, the researcher is still dealing with very a large number parameters of the relationship of each of the properties of the components and types of technogenic loads. Therefore, geographers are looking for integral expressions for the sum of components, that is, for the natural environment as a whole. Such a whole is the natural landscape with its historically established structure. The latter expresses, as it were, the "memory" of landscape development, a long series of statistical data necessary for predicting the state of the natural environment.

Many people believe that the degree of diversity of its morphogenetic structure can serve as an indicator of the stability of a landscape to external stresses, especially pollution. With increasing diversity natural complexes and its constituent components in natural complexes, the processes of regulation are enhanced and stability is maintained. Stability can be broken by extreme natural processes and anthropogenic loads exceeding the potential of the landscape.

Anthropogenic factors, as a rule, reducing the diversity of the landscape, reduce its stability. But anthropogenic factors can also increase the diversity and resilience of the landscape. Thus, the stability of the landscape suburban areas with parks, gardens, ponds, i.e., territories quite diverse in structure and origin, higher than it was before, when fields with agricultural monoculture crops dominated here. The least stable are natural landscapes with a simple monotonous structure that develop under conditions of extreme temperatures and moisture. Such landscapes are characteristic, for example, of desert and tundra zones. The potential instability of these territories to many types of technogenic loads is enhanced by the incompleteness of their natural complexes - the absence of soil and vegetation cover in many areas or its thinness.

Geographic forecast

• 1. Types and stages of forecasting
• 2. Methods of forecasting
• 3. Features of geographic forecasting
• 4. Types and methods of geographical forecasting

Types and stages of forecasting

The practical meaning of regional nature management is to make correct predictions using knowledge about the patterns of development of TPHS possible changes in the natural environment and society as a result of the implementation of certain events. For example, what will happen to the nature of Mari El if global warming continues? According to the forecast, in a hundred years there will be a forest-steppe here. And how will this affect our lives? And what will happen to the nature and economy of the republic if sections of the planned highways pass through it - the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway and the automobile road to China?

Most suitable for answering similar questions geographic forecasts, since only this science has accumulated a sufficient amount of knowledge and methods to solve complex problems that arise at the intersection of nature and society. Hence the usefulness of studying this topic. Generally speaking, a special course on geographic forecasting would also be useful, but, unfortunately, we have no one to read it yet ..

As always, let's start with definitions.

Forecast- a probabilistic judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future, based on a special scientific study (forecasting) philosophical dictionary 2009 //dic.academic.ru.

According to the subject, natural science and social science forecasting can be distinguished. Objects natural history forecasting characterized uncontrollability or minor degree manageability; prediction in framework natural history forecasting is unconditional and oriented on the fixture action to expected condition object. AT framework social science forecasting maybe have place self-realization or self-destruction forecast how result his accounting Ibid .

In this regard, the geographical forecast is distinguished by its originality, being at the junction of natural science and social science. We can direct some processes, but we only have to adapt to some. However, the difference between the two is not always obvious. Another problem is that all other sciences deal with a rather narrow subject of research and the processes take place there in one-order time intervals. For example, geology deals with processes lasting hundreds and millions of years, meteorology with intervals from hours to several days. The forecasting horizons look accordingly. Geographical systems combine processes with completely different characteristic times. Therefore, the difficulties begin already with the determination of a reasonable duration for which a forecast can be made.

For the purposes of regional nature management, recommendations on the prediction of anthropogenic landscapes are best suited. Here are the predictions.

Short-term for a period of 10-15 years.

Medium-term for 15-25 years.

Long-term - 25-50 years.

Long-term more than 50 years.

Urgency forecast here tied predominantly to speed processes in public sphere, but are taken into account only relatively slow processes, ongoing in material basis production comparable With dynamics long cycles Kondratiev. AT special research regional systems nature management may accepted and other terms.

The success of the forecast also depends on the complexity of the object whose future we want to foresee. It can be seen from the foregoing that the geographic forecast concerns very complex objects. But in some cases, the problem can be simplified without significant loss of forecast reliability, and sometimes we are only interested in the behavior of a few parameters. As a result, depending on the complexity and dimension of the object, forecasts are distinguished.

Subblock with prediction in 1-3 variables.

Local in 4-14 variables.

Sub-global 15-35 variables.

Global 36-100 variables.

Superglobals for over 100 variables.

Depending on the type of predicted processes, there are also two main types of forecasts.

search engines (genetic) . They are directed from the past-present to the future. We study what has happened in the past, find patterns, and assuming that they persist or change in a predictable way, we infer the future behavior of the system. This type of forecast is the only one possible for natural science forecasting. All can serve as an example famous predictions weather. natural development nature does not depend on our will.

Regulatory (target). These predictions go from the future to the present. It defines the ways and deadlines for achieving possible state system taken as a target. The situation in the present is studied, its desired state in the future is selected, and a sequence of events and actions is constructed that could ensure this state. For example, we want to avoid global warming. We assume that it is caused by emissions greenhouse gases. Set a goal - through X years to ensure their content in the atmosphere at % . Then we look at what measures can ensure the achievement of this result and assess the feasibility of their implementation under certain conditions. On the basis of which we draw a conclusion about the probability of achieving the plan. Then we make changes either in the goals or in the ways to achieve them. This type of forecasting is more acceptable in social studies.

The geographic forecast, due to the above features, as a rule, has mixed character with elements of both types.

To improve the reliability of forecasts, it is important to follow their procedure, which includes the following steps.

• 1. Setting goals and objectives. This determines all subsequent actions. If the goal is not formulated, then everything that follows will turn out to be a set of uncoordinated and illogical actions. Unfortunately, the authors of forecasts do not always set the goal explicitly.
• 2. Determination of the temporal and spatial boundaries of the forecast. They depend on the purpose of forecasting. For example, if the goal is to identify the consequences of the construction of the aforementioned highways for the hydrological regime, then the forecast may be short-term, and the zone of influence is limited to the first hundreds of meters. If we want to predict socio-economic changes, then this will mean both a longer forecast period and a larger territory.
• 3. Collection and systematization of information. There is an obvious dependence on what was specified in paragraphs 1 and 2.
• 4. When using the normative method of forecasting - building a tree of goals and resources. AT this case the given goal and the goal of the forecast are two different things. In the above example, the normative method can be used for any forecasting purpose. But in the case of hydrological regime some normative state should be set as the general goal environment, and for the socio-economic forecast, some level of changes in the quality of life of the population involved in the zone of influence of the road. The general goal in both cases is divided into subgoals more and more low levels until we reach the resources necessary to achieve them.
• 5. Choice of methods, identification of limitations and inertial aspects. Here, too, the dependence on the purpose of the forecast is obvious. In the case of hydrology and short-term forecasting, methods from landscape geophysics and engineering calculations will be mainly used. In the second case, it is necessary to use economic-geographical, economic and sociological methods. Constraints and inertial aspects will also be different. One of the limitations of the normative method will be, for example, the amount of funds that can be allocated to achieve the goal. Inertial aspects are linked to the forecast period. These include those that change over a period significantly longer than the forecast period. Failure to take into account inertia often leads to unreasonable forecasts. Typical example are predictions of a fast transition to alternative energy. This is despite the fact that the service life of the average thermal or nuclear power plant 50 years, and the hydroelectric power station even more. Obviously, no one will destroy them until they exhaust their resource.
• 6. Development of private forecasts. Starting with predictions of the local level of complexity, it may be necessary to predict the behavior of some input parameters. For example, when assessing the consequences of the construction of highways across our territory on the distribution of the population, it is necessary to anticipate changes natural increase and migratory mobility of the population.
• 7. Development of the main forecast options. It is carried out by bringing together and linking private forecasts. It is recommended to draw up several options for different possible conditions and scenarios for the development of events.
• 8. Examination of the developed options and the final forecast, taking into account the comments received as a result of the examination.
• 9. Using the forecast, monitoring its compliance with the actual course of events and the necessary adjustments to the forecast itself or measures to implement it, if it is a normative forecast.

Forecasting the state of the natural environment - necessary condition solving rational problems. Of particular importance is geographic forecasting, since it is complex and involves an assessment of the dynamics of natural and natural-economic systems in the future using both component and integral indicators.

Geographic forecasting is understood as the development of scientifically based judgments about the state and development trends of the natural environment in the future for making decisions on its rational use. This direction of geographical research can be defined even more simply as a prediction of the future state of the natural environment. Included in its development huge contribution works of I.P. Gerasimova, T.V. Zvonkovoy, V.B. Sochava, F.N. Milkova, A.G. Isachenko, A.G. Emelyanova, N.I. Koronkevich, K.N. Dyakonova and other researchers.

Forecasts are classified: 1) into component (industry) - hydrological, meteorological, etc.; complex - the dynamics of the state of the natural complex as a whole is assessed; 2) local (spatial from several square kilometers to several thousand square kilometers), regional (from several thousand square kilometers to hundreds of thousands of square kilometers), global (from hundreds of thousands of square kilometers to the territorial level of generating systems); 3) for short-term (time scale from several to several days); medium-term (from several days to a year); long-term (from a year to centuries and millennia).

The most developed methods for predicting the natural environment include methods of physical and geographical extrapolation, physical and geographical analogies, landscape genetic series, functional dependencies, expert assessments. They are systematically presented in the work of A.G. Emelyanov. Based on this publication, we will briefly consider the essence of these methods.

The method of physical-geographical extrapolation is based on the distribution of previously identified directions of development of the natural complex, on its spatial and temporal dynamics in the future. The method of physical and geographical analogies is based on the position that the patterns of development of the process, identified in the conditions of one natural complex (analog), with certain amendments, are transferred to another, which is in identical conditions with the first. The method of landscape-genetic series is based on the fact that the patterns of development established for spatial changes in natural processes can be transferred to their temporal dynamics, and vice versa. The method of functional dependencies is based on identifying factors that determine the dynamics of the predicted process, and finding relationships between them and process indicators. The method of expert assessments is to determine the future state of the predicted object by studying the opinions of various specialists (experts).

At present, the method of simulation modeling is increasingly used to solve predictive problems. It is based on the construction of a simulation mathematical model, reflecting spatio-temporal relations of natural complexes, and its computer implementation. Forecast calculations are carried out as follows. The impacts are set on the model inputs: 1) from regional forecasts of changes natural conditions; 2) from a long-term program economic development territory. At the outputs of the model, we obtain a forecast of the state of the natural environment.

We will consider the application of this method on the example of predicting the geoecological consequences of changes in the regional climate. The study was carried out using a model of a basin-landscape system built for the natural and economic conditions of the river basin. Pregoli - the main water artery Kaliningrad region.

The model includes the equations water balance, dependence of phytomass and yield (on the example of winter wheat) on hydrothermal conditions, soil fertility, application of organic and fertilizers, balances of vegetation phytomass, humus, nitrogen and phosphorus in the soil cover, nitrogen and phosphorus in groundwater and waters, as well as the equation of relationships between the balances . It is designed to calculate changes in the natural environment in retrospect and in the prospect of decades and centuries. Calculations are given for the period of time from 1995 to 2025, within which scientifically based scenarios have been developed and regional development programs are being drawn up.

As a scenario for the inputs of the model, a linear increase by 2025 in the average annual air by 1°С and annual by 50 mm is set compared to modern values. These data correspond to the developments for the change for the territory of the Kaliningrad region. Analysis of the simulation results showed the following changes in the components of the basin-landscape system of the river. Pregoli.

Forest vegetation and soil cover. phytomass increases by the end of the calculation period. Soil cover indicators: the content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus experience opposite changes. A slight decrease in these values ​​is probably due to an increase in their assimilation by the growing phytomass of forest vegetation, as well as an increase in surface and infiltration.

Agricultural vegetation and soil cover. The phytomass and productivity of agricultural vegetation (on the example of grain crops) also increases by the end of the calculation period. The content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus is reduced. The decrease in these substances in the soil is associated with an increase in their removal with the harvest, surface washout and infiltration.

River and ground waters. River water discharge and level groundwater increases by the end of the calculation period, which confirms the more significant impact of climate humidification on the basin-landscape system. There is a tendency to increase the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in the waters, which is explained by an increase in the supply of these substances with surface washout and infiltration.

The geoecological consequences of the implementation of the scenario of regional warming and climate humidification cannot be unequivocal assessment. Changes in the following parameters can be assessed as positive. The productivity and phytomass of forest vegetation increases. This will probably occur due to an increase in the proportion of broad-leaved trees, which will lead to greater geobotanical diversity and an increase in the environment-forming and resource-forming functions of forest geosystems. An increase in the yield of agricultural vegetation (for example, winter wheat) due to warming and moistening of the regional climate by 2 c/ha is adequate to such an increase due to an increase in the application rates of mineral nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers by 1.2–1.3 times compared with the application rates by 1.2–1.3 times. fields of the Kaliningrad region. Taking this circumstance into account will save financial resources for more rational use fertilizers and reduce nitrogen-phosphorus pollution of the natural environment. At the same time, due to the increase in nutrients From the soil with a crop, adequate fertilization is necessary in order to maintain and increase soil fertility. There is a significant increase in groundwater levels. lacustrine-glacial and coastal, occupying a significant area in the Kaliningrad region and having a depth of 0.5 -1.5 m, may be subjected to. Given that 95% of agricultural land and 80% of forest area in the region has been reclaimed, rising groundwater levels could override positive impacts.

The results of the simulation show the need for careful consideration in the economic activities in the territory of the Kaliningrad region of the geoecological consequences of the upcoming climate change. It is required to develop a well-thought-out system, improve soil fertility, forest management and other areas of nature management, taking into account the noted consequences. This approach can be used for other regions as well. This example illustrates the need to apply geographic forecasting to solve problems environmental management.

Before defining the role of geographic forecasting in the system of environmental and environmental education, it is necessary to give it a definition that reflects its essence as accurately as possible for the purposes of using it in school geography.

In different periods of the development of society, the ways of studying the environment have changed. One of the most important "tools" of a rational approach to nature management is currently considered the use of geographic forecasting methods. Predictive studies are generated by the requirements of scientific and technological progress.

The geographic forecast is a scientific substantiation of rational nature management.

In the methodological literature, there has not yet been a unified concept of such terms "geographical forecast" and "geographical forecasting". So in the work of T.V. Zvonkova and N.S. Kasimov, geographic forecasting is understood as "a complex multifaceted ecological and geographical problem, where the theory, methods, and practice of forecasting are closely related to the protection of the natural environment and its resources, planning and design, and project expertise" . The main objectives of geographic forecasting have been defined as follows:

l Set the boundaries of the changed nature;

l Assess the degree and nature of its change;

l Determine the long-range action of the “effect anthropogenic change» and its focus;

l Determine the course of these changes in time, taking into account the relationship and interaction of elements of natural systems and those processes that carry out this relationship.

Under the term "complex physical-geographical forecast" A.G. Emelyanov understands scientifically informed judgment about changing a number of components in their relationship or the entire natural complex as a whole. An object is understood as a material (natural) formation, to which the research process is directed, for example, a natural complex under the influence of a person or natural factors. The subject of forecasting is those properties (indicators) of these complexes that characterize the direction, degree, speed and scale of these changes. The identification of such indicators is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable forecasts for the restructuring of geosystems under the influence of human economic activity. In his work, A.G. Emelyanov formulated theoretical and methodological provisions, summarized the existing experience and the results of many years of work on the study and forecasting of changes in nature on the flooded banks of reservoirs and in the zone of influence of drainage facilities. Particular attention is paid to the principles, system and methods of constructing forecasts for the restructuring of natural complexes under the influence of human economic activity.

SOUTH. Simonov defined a geographic forecast as “a forecast of the consequences of human economic activity, a forecast of the state of the natural environment in which public sphere production and personal life of each of the people ... ultimate goal of the entire system of geographical sciences is to determine the future state of the geographic environment of our planet, ”thereby binding to an absolutely specific person, for whose comfortable existence the entire forecast is carried out. At the same time Yu.G. Simonov distinguishes another type of geographical forecasts, which is in no way connected with judgments about the future, it has to do with the placement of phenomena in space - a spatial forecast. “In both cases, the forecast is based on the laws established by science. In one case - on the laws of spatial distribution, determined by a combination of law-forming factors, in the second - these are the patterns of temporal sequences of phenomena.

Forecast means foresight, prediction. Therefore, a geographic forecast is a prediction of changes in the balance and nature of the development of natural components under the influence of human activities, natural resource potential and needs for natural resources on a global, regional and local scale. So the forecast is specific kind knowledge, where, first of all, not what is, but what will be as a result of any influences or inaction is investigated.

Forecasting is a set of actions that make it possible to make judgments about the behavior of natural systems and are determined by natural processes and the impact of mankind on them in the future. Forecasting answers the question: “What will happen if?...”.

Thus, it is clear that the terms "Geographic forecast" and "Geographic forecasting" cannot be considered synonymous, there are certain differences between them. In forecasting, forecasting is considered as a process of obtaining ideas about the future state of the object under study, and forecasting is considered as the end result (product) of this process.

It is advisable to distinguish between the object and the subject of forecasting. The object can be understood as material or material natural formation, to which the forecasting process is directed, for example, a geosystem of any rank, changed (or subject to change in the future) under the influence of anthropogenic or natural factors. The subject of forecasting can be considered those properties (indicators) of these geosystems that characterize the direction, degree, speed and scale of these changes. It is the identification of these indicators that is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable forecasts of the restructuring of geosystems under the influence of human economic activity.

Geographic forecasting is based on a number of assumptions ( general principles) developed in forecasting and other scientific disciplines.

1. Historical approach (genetic approach) to the predicted object, i.e. studying it in formation and development. Such an approach is necessary, first of all, in order to obtain data on the laws of the dynamics of nature and reasonably extend them into the future.

2. Geographic forecasting should be carried out on the basis of a number of general and specific stages of forecasting research. To general steps include: defining the task and object of the forecast, developing a hypothetical model of the process under study, obtaining and analyzing initial information, choosing forecasting methods and techniques, making a forecast and assessing its reliability and accuracy.

3. The principle of consistency assumes that all common properties are inherent in forecasting large systems. According to this principle, a complex physical-geographic forecast is an element of a broader geographical forecast, it should be compiled in conjunction with other types of forecasts, the forecast object should be considered as a system category.

4. Among the general principles is the variance of forecasting. The forecast cannot be tough, because the sphere of influence of human economic activity includes diverse natural systems. In this regard, it must be developed based on several options for initial conditions. The multivariate nature of the forecast makes it possible to estimate various directions and the degree of restructuring of geosystems of various ranks and, on this basis, choose the most optimal and reasonable design solutions.

5. The principle of continuity of forecasting means that the forecast made cannot be considered as final. A comprehensive physical and geographical forecast is usually made during the period design work. At this stage, the researcher most often does not have enough complete information, and in the future he often has to revise the initial forecast estimates. Forecasting has been used by many scientists. So, the periodic system of D.I. Mendeleev, the doctrine of the noosphere V.I. Vernadsky are examples of forecasting.

It is difficult to overestimate the importance of geographical forecasting in nature management. The main purpose of a geographic forecast is to assess the expected response of the environment to direct or indirect human impact, as well as to solve the problems of future environmental management in connection with the expected state of the environment.

The foundation for future changes is being laid now, and the life of future generations depends on what it becomes.

In connection with the reassessment of the system of values, the change of technocratic thinking to ecological thinking, there are changes in forecasting. Modern geographic forecasts must be made from the position universal values, the main of which are man, his health, the quality of the environment, the preservation of the planet as a home for mankind. Thus, attention to living nature, to man makes the tasks of geographical forecasting ecological.

The development of a forecast is always guided by certain estimated dates, i.e. conducted with a predetermined lead time. On this basis, geographical forecasts are divided into:

– ultra-short-term (up to 1 year);

– short-term (3-5 years);

- medium-term (for the next decades more often up to 10-20 years);

– long-term (for the next century);

- ultra-long-term, or long-term (for millennia and beyond).

Naturally, the reliability of the forecast, the probability of its justification, is the less, the longer its estimated time is.

According to the coverage of the territory, forecasts are distinguished:

– global;

– regional;

– local;

Moreover, each forecast should combine elements of globality and regionality. So, cutting down the wet equatorial forests Africa and South America, man thus affects the state of the Earth's atmosphere as a whole: the oxygen content decreases, the amount carbon dioxide. Doing global forecast future climate warming, we thus foresee how warming will affect specific regions of the Earth.

It is advisable to distinguish between the concepts of method and methodological method of forecasting. In this work, the forecasting method is understood as an informal approach (principle) to information processing, which makes it possible to obtain satisfactory predictive results. A methodological technique is considered as an action that does not lead directly to the forecast, but contributes to its implementation.

At present, there are more than 150 different levels, scales and scientific validity forecasting methods and techniques. Some of them can be used in physical geography. However, the use general scientific methods and techniques for the purposes of geographical forecasting has its own specifics. This specificity is associated primarily with the complexity and insufficient knowledge of the objects of study - geosystems.

For geographic forecasting, the greatest practical value have such methods as the use of extrapolations, geographical analogies, landscape-genetic series, functional dependencies, expert assessments.

The methodological methods of geographic forecasting include the analysis of maps and aerospace images, indication, methods mathematical statistics, building logical models and scenarios. Their use makes it possible to obtain necessary information, outline general direction possible changes. Almost all of these techniques are "cross-cutting" i.e. they constantly accompany the forecasting methods listed above, concretize them, make them possible. practical use.

There are many forecasting methods. Let's dwell on some of them. All methods can be grouped into two groups: logical and formalized methods.

Due to the fact that in nature management one often has to deal with complex dependencies of a natural and socio-economic nature, they use boolean methods that establish links between objects. These include methods of induction, deduction, expert assessments, analogies.

The method of induction establishes the causal relationships of objects and phenomena. The study is conducted from the particular to the general. Study inductive method begins with the collection of factual data, similarities and differences between objects are identified, and the first attempts at generalization are made.

The method of deduction conducts research from the general to the particular. Thus, knowing general provisions and, relying on them, we come to a private conclusion.

In cases where there is no reliable information about the object of the forecast and the object is not amenable to mathematical analysis, the method of expert assessments is used, the essence of which is to determine the future based on the opinion of experts - qualified specialists involved in making an assessment of the problem. There is individual and collective expertise. Experts express their opinion based on experience, knowledge and available materials, intuitively using the methods of analogy, comparison, extrapolation, and generalization. Several methodological approaches to intuitive forecasting have been developed, which differ in the ways of obtaining opinions and procedures for their further adjustment.

The forecasting method based on the study of expert opinions can be applied in cases where there is not enough information about the past and present of a particular object of study, there is not enough time for the conduct of field work.

The analogy method is based on the following theoretical position: under the influence of the same or similar factors, genetically close geosystems are formed, which, being subjected to the same type of influences, experience similar changes. Essence this method is based on the fact that the patterns of development of one process, with certain amendments, are transferred to another process, for which it is necessary to make a forecast. Complexes of various complexity can act as analogues.

The practice of forecasting shows that the possibilities of the analogy method increase significantly if it is used on the basis of the theory of physical similarity. According to this theory, the similarity of compared objects is established using similarity criteria, i.e. indicators that have the same dimension. Natural processes cannot yet be described only quantitatively, and therefore, when forecasting, one has to use both quantitative and qualitative characteristics. It is necessary to take into account those criteria that reflect the conditions of uniqueness, i.e. conditions governing individual characteristics process and distinguish it from the variety of other processes.

The process of making a forecast using the analogy method can be represented as a system of interrelated actions, including the following operations:

1. Collection and analysis of initial information about the predicted object - maps, photographs, literary sources in accordance with the task of the forecast;

2. Selection of similarity criteria based on the analysis of uniqueness conditions;

3. Selection of natural complexes-analogues (geosystems) for predicted objects;

4. In key areas along single program and taking into account the selected similarity criteria, natural complexes are described, the final landscape map of the proposed zone of influence is compiled;

5. Comparison of natural complexes-analogues and objects of the forecast with the determination of the degree of their homogeneity;

6. Direct forecasting - the transfer of characteristics of changes in natural conditions from analogues to forecast objects.

7. Logic Analysis and assessment of the reliability of the forecast obtained.

Among the formalized methods are statistical, extrapolation, modeling, etc.

The described method is well physically substantiated and makes it possible to make long-term complex forecasts. Physical and geographical analogues in an undistorted form reproduce

The statistical method is based on quantitative indicators that make it possible to draw a conclusion about the pace of development of the process in the future.

The extrapolation method is the transfer of the established nature of the development of a certain territory or process to the future. If it is known that when creating a reservoir with a shallow location ground water flooding and swamping began on the site, it can be assumed that these processes will continue here in the future and a swampy area will form. This method is based on the idea of ​​the inertia of the phenomena and processes under study, therefore their future state is considered as a function of a number of states in the past and present. The most reliable predictive results are obtained by extrapolation, which is based on the knowledge of the fundamental laws of the development of geosystems.

Forecasting by extrapolation includes the following operations:

1. Study of the dynamics of predicted natural complexes based on the use of stationary observations, indicator and other methods.

2. Pretreatment number series to reduce the impact of random changes.

3. The choice of the type of function is made and the series is approximated.

4. Calculation according to the obtained model of process parameters for a reasonable period of time and assessment of spatial changes in nature.

5. Analysis of the obtained predictive results and assessment of their accuracy and reliability

The main advantage of the extrapolation method is its simplicity. In this regard, it has found wide application in the preparation of socio-economic, scientific, technical and other forecasts. However, the use of this method requires great care. It makes it possible to obtain sufficiently reliable results only if the factors that determine the development of the predicted process are unchanged and if the qualitative changes accumulating in the system are taken into account. It should be borne in mind that the empirical series used must be long in time, homogeneous and stable. According to the rules adopted in forecasting, the period of extrapolation to the future should not exceed one third of the observation period.

Modeling is the process of building, learning, and applying models. Under the model, we mean an image (including a conditional or mental one - an image, description, diagram, drawing, plan, map, etc.) or a prototype of any object or system of objects (the "original" of this model), used for certain conditions as their "alternate" or "representative".

It is the modeling method, taking into account the increasing capabilities of high-tech computer equipment, that makes it possible to more fully use the potential inherent in geographic forecasting.

It should be noted that there are two groups of models - material (objective) models, such as a globe, maps, etc., and ideal (mental) models, such as graphs, formulas, etc.

To the group material models used in nature management, physical models are most widely used.

In a group ideal models greatest success and scale has been achieved by the direction of global simulation modeling. One of the most important events and achievements in the field of simulation modeling was an event that took place in 2002. On the territory of the Institute for Earth Sciences in Yokohama (Yokohama Institute for Earth Sciences), in a pavilion specially built for it, the most powerful supercomputer in the world at that time, the Earth Simulator, was launched, which is able to process all the information coming from all kinds of " observation posts" - on land, water, air, space, and so on.

Thus, the "Earth Simulator" turns into a full-fledged "live" model of our planet with all the processes: climate change, same global warming, earthquakes, tectonic shifts, atmospheric phenomena, environmental pollution.

Scientists are sure that with its help it will be possible to predict how likely it is to increase the number and strength of hurricanes due to global warming, as well as in which areas of the planet this effect can be most pronounced.

Even now, several years later, after the launch of the Earth Simulator project, any interested scientist can get acquainted with the data obtained and the results of the work on the Internet site specially created for this project - http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp

In our country, such scientists as I.I. Budyko, N.N. Moiseev and N.M. Svatkov.

It should be noted a number of points that cause certain difficulties when using the method of geographical forecasting:

1. The complexity and insufficient knowledge of natural complexes (geosystems) - the main objects of physical geography. Dynamic aspects are especially poorly studied, so geographers do not yet have reliable data on the speed of certain natural processes. As a result, there are no sufficiently satisfactory models for the development of geosystems in time and space, and the accuracy of estimates of predicted changes is most often low;

2. The quality and volume of geographic information often does not meet the requirements of forecasting. The available materials were collected in most cases not in connection with the forecast, but to solve other problems. Therefore, they are insufficiently full of information, representative and reliable. The issue of the content of the initial information has not yet been fully resolved, only the first steps have been taken towards the creation of information support systems for geographic forecasts of high accuracy;

3. Insufficiently clear understanding of the essence and structure of the process of geographic forecasting (in particular, in the content of specific stages and operations of forecasting, their subordination and relationships, sequence of execution).

4. Reliability and accuracy are important indicators, which determine the quality of any forecast. Confidence is the probability of making a prediction for a given confidence interval. It is customary to judge the accuracy of the prediction by the magnitude of the error - the difference between the predicted and the actual value of the variable under study.

AT general plan the reliability and accuracy of forecasts is determined by three main points: a) the level theoretical knowledge on the formation and development of natural complexes, as well as the degree of knowledge of the specific conditions of the territories that are the object of forecasting, b) the degree of reliability and completeness of the initial geographic information used to make the forecast, c) the correct choice of methods and methods of forecasting, taking into account the fact that each method has its shortcomings and has a certain area with respect to effective application.

Also speaking about the accuracy of the forecast, one should distinguish between the accuracy of predicting the date of the expected phenomenon, the accuracy of determining the time of the formation of the process, the accuracy of identifying the parameters that describe the predicted process.

The degree of error of a single forecast can be judged by relative error- attitude absolute error to the actual value of the attribute. However, the assessment of the quality of the applied forecasting methods and techniques can only be given on the basis of the totality of the forecasts made and their implementation. In this case, the simplest measure of evaluation is the ratio of the number of forecasts supported by actual data to total number made predictions. In addition, to check the reliability of quantitative forecasts, you can use the average absolute or root mean square error, correlation coefficient and other statistical characteristics.

In addition to the considered methods and techniques, geographic forecasting can be used balance methods based on the study of changes in the balances of matter and methods based on the study of changes in the balances of matter and energy in landscapes as a result of economic and reclamation measures.

GEOGRAPHICAL FORECASTING

From a general scientific point of view, forecasting is most often defined as hypothesis about the future development of the object. This means that it is possible to predict the development of a wide variety of objects, phenomena and processes: the development of science, a branch of the economy, a social or natural phenomenon. Demographic forecasts of population growth, socio-economic forecasts of the possibility of satisfying the growing population of the Earth with food and environmental forecasts of the future environment of human life are especially common in our time. If a person cannot influence the object of forecasting, such a forecast is called passive(e.g. weather forecast).

The forecast can also consist in assessing the future economic and natural state of any territory for 15–20 years ahead. Anticipating, for example, an unfavorable situation, it is possible to change it in a timely manner by planning an economically and environmentally optimal development option. Exactly like this active a forecast that implies feedback and the ability to control the object of forecasting is characteristic of geographical science. For all the differences in the goals of forecasting, there is no more important common task for modern geography and geographers than the development of a scientifically based forecast of the future state of the geographic environment based on estimates of its past and present. It is in the conditions of high rates of development of production, technology and science that humanity especially needs this kind of advanced information, because due to the lack of foresight of our actions, the problem of the relationship between man and the environment has arisen.

In the most general way geographic forecasting – this is a special scientific study of specific prospects for the development of geographical phenomena. Its task is to determine the future states of integral geosystems, the nature of the interactions between nature and society.

At the same time, in a geographical study, first of all, successive connections of a temporal, spatial and genetic nature are used, since it is these connections that are characterized by causality - the most important element in predicting events and phenomena, even a high degree of randomness and probability. In turn, complexity and probabilistic nature are specific features of geoforecasting.

The main operational units of geographic forecasting - space and time - are considered in comparison with the purpose and object of the forecast, as well as with the local natural and economic features of a particular region.

The success and reliability of a geographic forecast are determined by many factors, including the correct choice of the main factors and methods that provide a solution to the problem.

Geographical forecasting of the state of the natural environment is multifactorial, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. It is necessary to analyze these factors and select those that, to some extent, can control the state of the environment - to stimulate, stabilize or limit unfavorable or human-favorable factors of its development.

These factors can be external and internal. External factors - these are, for example, such sources of environmental impact as quarries and overburden dumps that completely destroy the natural landscape, smoke emissions from factory chimneys that pollute the air, industrial and domestic effluents entering water bodies, and many other sources of environmental impact. The size and strength of the impact of such factors can be foreseen in advance and taken into account in advance in the plans for the protection of nature in a given region.

To internal factors include the properties of nature itself, the potential of its components and landscapes as a whole. Of the components of the natural environment involved in the forecasting process, depending on its goals and local geographical conditions, the main ones may be the relief, rocks, water bodies, vegetation, etc. But some of these components for the forecast period, for example, 25 - 30 years forward, remains virtually unchanged. Thus, the relief, rocks, as well as the processes of slow tectonic subsidence or uplift of the territory can be considered relatively constant factors in the development of the natural environment. The relative stability of these factors over time makes it possible to use them as a background and framework for the forecast.

Other much more dynamic factors, such as dust storms, drought, earthquakes, hurricanes, mudflows, have the value of probabilistic quantities in geographical forecasting. Under specific conditions, the strength of their impact on the landscape and the process of economic activity will depend not only on them, but also on the stability of the natural background on which they affect. Therefore, when forecasting, the geographer operates, for example, with indicators of the division of the relief, vegetation cover, mechanical composition of soils, and many other components of the natural environment. Knowing the properties of the components and their mutual relations, differences in response to external influences, it is possible to foresee the response of the natural environment in advance, both to its own parameters and to the factors of economic activity. But, even having selected not all, but only the main natural components that are most appropriate for solving the problem, the researcher still deals with a very large number of parameters of the relationship of each of the properties of the components and types of technogenic loads. Therefore, geographers are looking for integral expressions for the sum of components, that is, for the natural environment as a whole. Such a whole is the natural landscape with its historically established structure. The latter expresses, as it were, the "memory" of landscape development, a long series of statistical data necessary for predicting the state of the natural environment.

Many people believe that the degree of diversity of its morphogenetic structure can serve as an indicator of the stability of a landscape to external stresses, especially pollution. With an increase in the diversity of natural complexes and its constituent components, the processes of regulation intensify in natural complexes and stability is maintained. Sustainability can be disrupted by extreme natural processes and anthropogenic pressures that exceed the potential of the landscape.

Anthropogenic factors, as a rule, reducing the diversity of the landscape, reduce its stability. But anthropogenic factors can also increase the diversity and resilience of the landscape. Thus, the stability of the landscape of suburban areas with parks, gardens, and ponds, i.e., territories that are quite diverse in structure and origin, is higher than it was before, when fields with agricultural monoculture crops dominated here. The least stable are natural landscapes with a simple monotonous structure that develop under conditions of extreme temperatures and moisture. Such landscapes are characteristic, for example, of desert and tundra zones. The potential instability of these territories to many types of technogenic loads is enhanced by the incompleteness of their natural complexes - the absence of soil and vegetation cover in many areas or its thinness.