About such a problem as global warming, they began to talk in the middle of the last century. Until now, this issue is the subject of numerous discussions, the topic of international symposiums and plots. documentaries. Even a person far from environmental disciplines knows what global warming is. It is expressed as an increase in the average climate temperature over the past 100 years.

But is global warming as dangerous as it is portrayed by scientists and the media? When will it start? What changes will happen to the planet due to climate warming? What awaits humanity in the worst case? Is it capable global community solve the problem of global warming?

What is evidence of climate warming?

Temperature has been documented for 150 years. Over the past century, it has increased by an average of 0.5°C. A sharp warming of the climate occurred in the 1970s, when industrial activity intensified. Not only did the air temperature rise, but so did the water.

Global warming has led to an intense decrease in snow cover, melting and retreat of glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland and high mountain peaks. The consequence of this was the rise of the ocean level by about 10 cm. These and other phenomena prove that global warming is a real environmental problem.

What caused the warming?

• Forest fires (during them a huge amount of carbon dioxide is released, moreover, it is destroyed big number trees that convert it into oxygen during photosynthesis).
• Permafrost (from soil located in the area permafrost, methane is released).
• World Ocean (water bodies are the main source of steam).
• Volcanoes (when it erupts, an enormous amount of carbon dioxide is released).
• Fauna (organisms that exhale carbon dioxide significantly increase its concentration in the atmosphere).

However, the greenhouse effect itself does not pose a threat - without it, the average temperature of the Earth would be -18°C. The meaning lies in the fact that human activity over the past few decades has led to a significant increase in the concentration greenhouse gases and, consequently, to an increase in the temperature of the climate.

There are a number of other hypotheses that explain the occurrence of global warming on Earth. Satellite data suggest that the increase in climate temperature is caused by an increase in solar activity, which is not typical for past years. However, scientists do not have full view about changing the activity of the luminary for the publication of specific conclusions. The main facts indicate that the causes of global warming lie precisely in anthropogenic activities.

Factors that significantly increase the concentration of greenhouse gases:

• Heavy industry (the main source of carbon dioxide emissions is the extraction and combustion of oil, gas and other minerals).
• Agriculture (when the soil is intensively fertilized and treated with insecticides, nitrogen dioxide is released from it, which is greenhouse gas).
• (the destruction of the "lungs of the planet" leads to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide).
• Overpopulation (a huge amount of natural resources is required to meet the needs of the Earth's population).
• Landfills (most of the waste is not recycled, but is burned or buried, which leads to a fundamental change in the biological system).

Despite the fact that humans have significantly contributed to climate warming, some scientists still prefer to divide the causes of global warming into natural and anthropogenic.

What awaits the planet in the future?

Global warming will lead not only to a further increase in the temperature of the earth's surface, but also to other changes. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions will increase. The level of the World Ocean will rise by half a meter in 100 years, in addition, the salinity of the water will change. The air will become more humid. Precipitation will begin to fall more intensively, their distribution will change, and the temperature maximum threshold will also increase. The melting of glaciers will accelerate.

Global warming will affect the course of weather events: winds and cyclones will intensify and become more frequent. Natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes, will occur more regularly, and their scale will increase significantly.

Ecologists identify several regions of the earth, which will be particularly affected by the effects of global warming:

• Sahara Desert;
• Antarctic;
• Delta major rivers Asia;
• Little islands.

Less rain will fall in the tropics and subtropics. As a result of global warming, arid regions of the Earth and deserts will increase in area, and permafrost will move further north.

Climate change will shift habitats species, which in turn will jeopardize the safety of living beings, there will be a serious danger of extinction of organisms.

One of the controversial consequences of global warming is. The change in the density of the ocean waters caused by climate warming will lead to the fact that the pattern of sea currents will become similar to that which was during the Ice Age.

An increase in the number of industrial enterprises, landfills and waste disposal, the development of oil and gas fields will lead to an irreversible change in the composition air shell Earth.

Under the optimistic scenario, under which greenhouse gas emissions will remain at the same level, a critical situation will come on the planet in 300 years. Otherwise, irreversible consequences will be observed in 100 years.

Global warming will lead to changes not only in the biosphere, but also in economic activity and in society. The expansion of drought areas will lead to a reduction in sown areas, and agriculture will fall into decay. Developed countries face hunger and shortages drinking water.

Is it possible for man to solve the problem of warming?

No matter how pessimistic the scenarios for the development of global warming are, humanity is still able to take measures so that the Earth does not become like Venus. The most promising today are two main areas of combating global warming:

• enhanced reduction of emissions;
• use of environmental technologies.

However, it is not completely clear which method will allow more chances of avoiding catastrophic consequences of climate warming. Moreover, the effectiveness of both measures has been repeatedly called into question.

Radical reduction of emissions will become increasingly difficult as the economic activity of developing countries intensifies. Enormous energetic resources sourced from oil, gas and coal. Burning natural resources is the main cause of emissions large quantities carbon dioxide. Due to the scale and financial costs, it is not possible to re-equip the old industrial enterprises according to modern environmental standards. International agreements, in particular the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on the control of greenhouse gases, are failing.

The second direction in the fight against global warming is associated with the use of bioengineering technologies. Currently, installations are being created for pumping carbon dioxide into special mines. Scientists are working on extraordinary solutions, such as using aerosols to increase the reflectivity of the upper atmosphere. Whether this will be effective is still unknown.

Combining the two methods in the future will achieve best results. Improvements in catalytic converters and fuel combustion systems in automobiles will not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce heavy metals. The use of alternative energy sources will help significantly reduce emissions, but this moment these technologies require large financial investments. The important fact remains that the production of solar panels and windmills is also accompanied by a colossal emission.

Smaller, but no less significant measures to address global warming include:

• increase in green spaces;
• the use of energy-saving devices and appliances;
• waste recycling;
• drawing public attention to the problem.

If international control and large-scale environmental projects seem far from Everyday life, then the above methods apply to all the inhabitants of the planet. Cycling and a vegetarian diet will not harm you (rather it will be useful!), but the involvement and caring of those who call the Earth their home will help prevent the effects of global warming. Just as once people “by joint efforts” violated the natural balance, so now, with the interest of everyone, it will be possible to avoid catastrophic changes.

Global warming caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is a truly large-scale problem of our time. A person should not remain indifferent to it and miss ways to prevent climate change!

On global warming and related serious economic, social and environmental problems . In recent years, a great deal of news and information has been published on this subject. But the latest news, perhaps, was the "coolest" of all. A group of scientists from the US, France and the UK said that we have already passed the point of no return and the catastrophic consequences of global warming on Earth can no longer be stopped.

Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean (definition from Wikipedia). There are several reasons for global warming and they are associated with cyclical fluctuations in solar activity ( solar cycles) and economic activity person. It is impossible to determine today with absolute certainty which of them is dominant. Most scientists are inclined to the point of view that the main reason for this is human activity (burning hydrocarbon fuels). Some scientists categorically disagree and believe that the total human influence is small, and the main reason is the high solar activity. Moreover, they even argue that a new Little Ice Age will begin shortly after the current warming.

Personally, in this situation it is difficult for me to accept any one point of view, since none of them today has sufficiently complete scientific evidence. And yet, the problem is serious, it is necessary to respond to it somehow and you can’t stand aside. In my opinion, even if the supporters of the anthropogenic (human) factor, as the main cause of global warming, turn out to be wrong in the future, then the forces and means spent today to prevent this warming will not be in vain. They will more than pay off with new technologies and attentive attitude on the part of people to nature protection.

What is the essence of global warming? The bottom line is the so-called "greenhouse" effect. In the Earth's atmosphere, there is a certain balance of heat (solar rays) from the Sun and its return to space. The composition of the atmosphere has big influence to this balance. More precisely, the amount of so-called greenhouse gases (primarily carbon dioxide and methane, although water vapor also has a greenhouse value). These gases have the ability to trap Sun rays(heat) in the atmosphere, preventing them from escaping back into space. Previously, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 0.02%. However, as industry grows and the extraction and burning of coal, oil and natural gas, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere has steadily increased. Because of this, more heat is absorbed, which gradually warms up the atmosphere of the planet. Forest and steppe fires also contribute to this. This is about human activity. Mechanism cosmic influence I'll leave it for the next post.

What are the consequences of global warming? Like any phenomenon, global warming has both negative and positive consequences. It is believed that in northern countries will become warmer, so it will be easier in winter, crops in agriculture will increase, southern cultures(plants) will be cultivated further north. However, scientists are sure that the negative consequences of global warming will be much greater and the losses from them will significantly exceed the benefits. That is, in general, humanity will suffer from global warming.

What kind of troubles can be expected from global warming?

1. An increase in the number and strength of destructive typhoons and hurricanes;
2. Increase in the number and duration of droughts, exacerbation of the problem of water scarcity;
3. From the melting of the glaciers of the Arctic and Antarctic, the rise in the level of the World Ocean and the flooding of coastal areas where many people live;
4. Death of taiga forests due to thawing permafrost and the destruction of cities built on this permafrost;
5. Distribution to the north and to the highlands of a number of species - pests of agriculture and forestry and disease vectors.
6. Changes in the Arctic and Antarctic can lead to a change in the circulation of ocean currents, and hence the entire hydro- and atmosphere of the Earth.

This is in general terms. In any case, global warming is a problem that will affect all people, regardless of where they live and what they do. That is why it is today the most widely discussed in the world, not only among scientists, but also among the public.

discussions and different points there are many views on this. Personally, I was most impressed by Al Gore's (former US presidential candidate in the campaign in which he ran with George W. Bush) "An Inconvenient Truth". It clearly and reasonably reveals the causes of global warming and shows its negative consequences for people. The main conclusion that is made in the film is that the momentary political interests of narrow ruling groups people must give way to the long-term interests of all human civilization.

In any case, a lot of things need to be done in order to, if not stop, then at least mitigate the negative effects of global warming. And the publication below - once again think about it.

(Continuation )

Georgy Kazulko
Bialowieza Forest

(Your feedback, thoughts, ideas, questions, comments or disagreements, write in the comments below (anonymous users sometimes need to send a comment in a separate window enter code English text from the picture) or send to my email address: [email protected])

Catastrophic climate change is unstoppable

The best scientists in the world believe that in the near future humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining crops, the growth of the strength of hurricanes, and the disappearance of mountain glaciers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has already reached the point after which catastrophic climate change will begin, even if the amount of carbon dioxide can be reduced in the coming decades.

This is stated by a group of well-known scientists from the US, France and the UK in an article published in the Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

This study contradicts previous estimates, according to which a dangerous concentration of carbon dioxide will be reached this century, only later, RIA Novosti reports.

"There is a bright side to this conclusion - if we take steps to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations, we can reduce the number of problems that already seem inevitable," said James Hansen, lead author of the study, James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Research, part of Columbia University.

According to the scientist, humanity will face the expansion of deserts, declining crops, the growth of the strength of hurricanes, the reduction of coral reefs and the disappearance of mountain glaciers, which provide water to hundreds of millions of people.

To prevent a sharp warming in the coming years, the researchers write, the concentration of carbon dioxide should be reduced to the level that existed before industrial age- up to 350 ppm (0.035%). The current concentration of carbon dioxide is 385 parts per million and is increasing by 2 parts per million (0.0002%) per year, mainly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

The authors of the article note that the latest data on the history climate change on Earth reinforce their conclusions. In particular, observations of the melting of glaciers that previously reflected solar radiation and the release of carbon dioxide from melting permafrost and the ocean show that these processes, which were previously thought to be rather slow, can occur over decades, not thousands. years.

Scientists note that reducing emissions from coal combustion can significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, they are skeptical about geoengineering methods for extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pump it into rocks on the ocean floor. In their opinion, the withdrawal of 50 millionths of gas using this technology will cost at least 20 trillion dollars, which is twice the US national debt.

"Humanity today is facing inconvenient fact that industrial civilization is becoming the main factor influencing the climate. The biggest danger in this situation is ignorance and denial, which can make tragic consequences inevitable,” the researchers wrote.

An article about global warming. What is happening now in the world on a global scale, what consequences may be due to global warming. At times it is worth looking at what WE have brought the world to.

What is global warming?

Global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet, which is currently observed. Global warming is a fact that is pointless to argue with, and that is why it is necessary to approach it soberly and objectively.

Causes of global warming

According to scientific data, global warming can be caused by many factors:

Volcanic eruptions;

Behavior of the World Ocean (typhoons, hurricanes, etc.);

Solar Activity;

Earth's magnetic field;

Human activity. The so-called anthropogenic factor. The idea is supported by most scientists, public organizations and the media, which does not mean its unshakable truth.

Most likely, it will turn out that each of these components contributes to global warming.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect has been observed by any of us. In greenhouses, the temperature is always higher than outside; in a closed car on a sunny day, the same thing is observed. On the scale of the globe, everything is the same. Part of the solar heat received by the Earth's surface cannot escape back into space, since the atmosphere acts like polyethylene in a greenhouse. If it were not for the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth's surface should be about -18°C, but in reality it is about +14°C. How much heat remains on the planet directly depends on the composition of the air, which just changes under the influence of the factors described above (What causes global warming?); namely, the content of greenhouse gases is changing, which include water vapor (responsible for more than 60% of the effect), carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide), methane (causes the most warming) and a number of others.

Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution together emit about 22 billion tons of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases per year. Animal husbandry, fertilizer application, coal burning and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by mankind remain in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years have been caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the rest is caused by landscape changes, primarily deforestation.

What facts prove global warming?

Rising temperatures

The temperature has been documented for about 150 years. It is generally accepted that it has risen by about 0.6°C over the past century, although there is still no clear methodology for determining this parameter, and there is also no confidence in the adequacy of data from a century ago. It is rumored that the warming has been sharp since 1976, the beginning of the rapid industrial activity of man and maximum acceleration reached in the second half of the 1990s. But even here there are discrepancies between ground-based and satellite observations.

Rising sea levels

As a result of warming and melting of glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica and Greenland, the water level on the planet has risen by 10-20 cm, possibly more.

Melting glaciers

Well, what can I say, global warming is really the cause of the melting of glaciers, and better than words photos will confirm this.

Upsala glacier in Patagonia (Argentina) was one of the largest glaciers South America, but now disappears at 200 meters per year.

Rhoun glacier, Valais, Switzerland rose up to 450 meters.

Portage Glacier in Alaska.

1875 photo courtesy H. Slupetzky/University of Salzburg Pasterze.

Relationship between global warming and global cataclysms

Global warming prediction methods

Global warming and its development are predicted mainly with the help of computer models, based on collected data on temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and much more. Of course, the accuracy of such forecasts leaves much to be desired and, as a rule, does not exceed 50%, and the further scientists swing, the less likely the prediction will come true.

Also, ultra-deep drilling of glaciers is used to obtain data, sometimes samples are taken from a depth of up to 3000 meters. This ancient ice stores information about temperature, solar activity, intensity magnetic field Lands of that time. The information is used for comparison with current indicators.

What measures are being taken to stop global warming?

A broad consensus among climate scientists regarding the continued rise in global temperatures has led to the fact that a number of states, corporations and separate people trying to prevent or adapt to global warming. Many environmental organizations advocate for action against climate change, mainly by consumers, but also at the municipal, regional and government levels. Some also advocate limiting the global production of fossil fuels, citing a direct link between fuel combustion and CO2 emissions.

To date, the main global agreement to combat global warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005), an addition to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The protocol includes more than 160 countries of the world and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

European Union should reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by 8%, the US - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Thus it is assumed that the main objective- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the next 15 years by 5% - will be implemented. But this will not stop global warming, but only slightly slow its growth. And it's in best case. So, we can conclude that serious measures to prevent global warming are not being considered and are not being taken.

Figures and facts of global warming

One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.

Over the past half century, temperatures in southwestern Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, have risen by 2.5°C. In 2002 from ice shelf Larsen with an area of ​​3250 km and a thickness of over 200 meters, located on the Antarctic Peninsula, an iceberg with an area of ​​over 2500 km broke off, which actually means the destruction of the glacier. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier had remained stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. Over the course of millennia, the thickness of the glacier decreased gradually, but in the second half of the 20th century, the rate of its melting increased significantly. The melting of the glacier led to the release a large number icebergs (over a thousand) in the Weddell Sea.

Other glaciers are also collapsing. Thus, in the summer of 2007, an iceberg 200 km long and 30 km wide broke off from the Ross Ice Shelf; somewhat earlier, in the spring of 2007, an ice field 270 km long and 40 km wide broke away from the Antarctic continent. The accumulation of icebergs prevents the release of cold waters from the Ross Sea, which leads to a violation ecological balance(one of the consequences, for example, is the death of penguins, who lost the opportunity to get to their usual food sources due to the fact that the ice in the Ross Sea lasted longer than usual).

The acceleration of the degradation of permafrost has been noted.

Since the early 1970s, the temperature of permafrost in Western Siberia increased by 1.0°C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5°C. In northern Alaska, the temperature of the top layer of frozen rocks has increased by 3°C since the mid-1980s.

What impact will global warming have on the environment?

It will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats, as the current ones will simply melt away. Many species of animals and plants may simply disappear, unable to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Will change the weather on a global scale. An increase in the number of climatic disasters is expected; longer periods of extremely hot weather; there will be more rain, but the likelihood of drought in many regions will increase; increased flooding due to hurricanes and rising sea levels. But it all depends on the specific region.

The report of the Working Group of the Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change (Shanghai, 2001) lists seven models of climate change in the 21st century. The main conclusions made in the report are the continuation of global warming, accompanied by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions (although according to some scenarios, a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions is possible by the end of the century as a result of bans on industrial emissions); growth surface temperature air (by the end of the 21st century, an increase in surface temperature by 6°C is possible); sea ​​level rise (on average - by 0.5 m per century).

The most likely changes in weather factors include more intense precipitation; higher maximum temperatures, an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of frosty days in almost all regions of the Earth; with heatwaves becoming more frequent in most continental areas; reduction in temperature spread.

As a result of these changes, one can expect an increase in winds and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (the general trend towards an increase in which was noted back in the 20th century), an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, and a noticeable expansion of drought areas.

The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change. This is the Sahara region, the Arctic, the mega-deltas of Asia, small islands.

To negative changes in Europe, these include increased temperatures and increased droughts in the south (resulting in a decrease in water resources and a decrease in hydroelectric power generation, a decrease in agricultural production, a deterioration in tourism conditions), a decrease in snow cover and the retreat of mountain glaciers, an increase in the risk of severe floods and catastrophic floods on rivers; increased summer precipitation in Central and Eastern Europe, an increase in the frequency of forest fires, fires in peatlands, a decrease in forest productivity; increase in soil instability in Northern Europe. In the Arctic, there is a catastrophic decrease in the area of ​​ice cover, a reduction in the area of ​​sea ice, and increased coastal erosion.

Some researchers (for example, P. Schwartz and D. Randell) offer a pessimistic forecast, according to which, already in the first quarter of the 21st century, a sharp jump in climate is possible in an unforeseen direction, and the onset of a new ice age lasting hundreds of years may be the result.

How will global warming affect humans?

They are afraid of a lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in long term expects nothing but the evolution of man. Our ancestors faced a bigger problem when temperatures soared 10°C after the end of the ice age, but that's what led to our civilization. Otherwise, they would still probably hunt mammoths with spears.

Of course, this is not a reason to pollute the atmosphere with anything, because in the short term we will have to go bad. Global warming is a matter to follow the call common sense, logic, not to fall for cheap tales and not to be led by the majority, because history knows many examples when the majority were very deeply mistaken and did a lot of trouble, up to the burning of great minds, which, in the end, turned out to be right.

Global warming is the modern theory of relativity, the law gravity, the fact of the rotation of the Earth around the Sun, the sphericity of our planet at the time of their submission to the public, when opinions were also divided. Someone is definitely right. But who is it?

P.S.

More on Global Warming.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the world's most oil-burning countries, 2000.

Forecast of the growth of arid areas caused by global warming. The simulation was carried out on a supercomputer at the Institute of Space Research. Goddard (NASA, GISS, USA).

Consequences of global warming.

We are not to blame for global warming

Representatives: Naomi Klein and Other Left Thinkers

Anthropocene- a concept introduced in 2000 by the Nobel laureate in chemistry Paul Krutzen. This is the geological epoch in which natural processes and the work of ecosystems began to be actively influenced by humans.

Left criticism contemporary ideas about climate change is mainly aimed at refuting the myth of the Anthropocene. In its offensive, according to those who develop this term, all of humanity is to blame. The Anthropocene implies the presence in a person of a certain natural need use combustible fuel to provide economic development. The apologists of this idea are sure: one fact that man is the only species on Earth that has tamed fire is irrefutable proof the connection between the first spark, burnt out by the friction of a stick against a stick, and the first use of coal as a fuel. This led to the notion that each of us is to blame for modern environmental problems, and therefore all of humanity should share responsibility for its nature. This opinion also has support from psychoanalysts like John Keane, who believes that pollution environment associated with the childish behavior of a person, after which his mother cleans up the stool.

Thinkers like Naomi Klein challenge the concept of global blame for climate change. They refer to historical facts, according to which global warming has a very specific culprit - Western capitalism. Their arguments are based on the fact that the use of a steam engine, which requires coal, would not have been possible if a system of wage labor had not been established in Britain before the rest of the world. Another key event- British invasion northern India where they discovered large deposits of coal. In The Anthropocene Myth, Andreas Molm argues that locals knew about the deposits of fuel and were aware of its properties, but their way of life, and relatively developed, did not depend on the incessant burning of fuel. In modern times, despite global attempts to curtail the consumption of fossil resources, developed countries and transnational corporations act as customers large facilities infrastructure related to the extraction and transportation of fuel. One of the most environmentally disadvantaged countries, China, would not have become such if Western capitalism had not had a request for cheap resources from there. Thus, the left is demanding that humanity abandon collective self-flagellation and demand change from states and capital owners.

Unlike left-wing thinkers, representatives of religion agree in principle that the ecological catastrophe is caused by all of humanity. And Christians are also looking for the source of the problem in human nature, but from a slightly different angle. In June, Pope Francis issued an encyclical (A document that tells about the opinion of the Vatican on important world issues. - Approx. ed.), dedicated to global warming. In it, he stated that the moral decline of mankind led to climate change. The pope called selfishness and incontinence the main sins that brought the world to this state. The cruelty and craving for violence that have settled in the souls of mankind have reverberated on the planet: the symptoms are pollution of soil, water, air and all forms of life. So Francis quotes his favorite religious philosopher Roman Gardini.

Paradoxically, despite the belief in universal guilt, the Vatican also turned to the criticism of capital. Francis urged the wealthy around the world to change their way of life in order to avoid the destruction of ecosystems. Despite the moralistic indictment of all mankind, the majority international organizations (including UN, WWF and Greenpeace) supported the Pope. But the document put American conservatives in an awkward position: the programs of some of them combine both reliance on a religious electorate and a call to cut fuel fees.

Other religious leaders have also spoken out about global warming. For example, the Patriarch of Constantinople Bartholomew at one time also called environmental problem moral and spiritual development humanity. But the Dalai Lama was more restrained in finding the culprits. He advised to find the most effective and humane way out of the situation, but did not consider the causes of warming. His caution is understandable: he was already forced to flee China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Ecological catastrophe is harder scientifically

Representatives: biologists and ecologists

The mass extinction of species is an aspect of the global environmental crisis that is discussed in the media almost the most, and its media coverage does not always help to correctly understand the essence and scale of the problem. Elizabeth Colbert's The Sixth Extinction has become one of the major events in popular science non-fiction in recent years, and in it the author has adopted a rather restless tone, sometimes bordering on hysteria. Let professional community enough public interest to the problem, but some of its representatives say that the idea of ​​\u200b\u200bit is too simplistic and based more on emotions.

The American science journalist Stuart Brand notes that the scale of the "sixth extinction" is at least overestimated. In the previous five reductions in the number of species, 70% of the species disappeared. Citing the journal Nature, he says that if the extinction continues at the same rate as it is now, then real disaster awaits the Earth in several millennia. At the same time, one should not forget about successful examples of population recovery, as is happening now with cod.

The main problems are observed on the islands: their ecosystems are so unique (often they consist of endemic species) that any invasion of them easily leads to collapse. The sad news is that most of these unusual spaces have already lost a lot of animals and plants. The good ones are always local disasters. Moreover, sometimes it turns out to reverse the disaster. So, on one of the New Zealand islands, activists destroyed absolutely all rats in order to restore the population of rare kakapo parrots.

In addition, we still do not really understand the pace at which evolutionary processes. Perhaps it will not be so difficult for heat-loving species to adapt to new climatic conditions. Anyway the main problem- this is the destruction of ecosystems, but species that have disappeared from them can sometimes be replaced by others that perform the functions of extinct animals or plants. For example, in the forests of Europe, the population of wolves was restored, which returned the state of the ecosystem to balance. And if scientists manage to revive mammoths in the future, this will strengthen the tundra ecosystem.

The only thing we can do is face the apocalypse

Despite the general feeling of catastrophe, many activists are rather optimistic: it seems that the efforts of all mankind to limit emissions, switch to alternative sources energy and species conservation will help to avoid an unpleasant scenario. But it is worth bearing in mind that there is also a pessimistic point of view. Perhaps it can make you better understand the scale of the problem.

The problem of global warming

Global climate change has become one of the main scientific problems of mankind. In 1990, forty-nine eminent scientists of the world addressed the world community with an appeal to limit greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, since, in their opinion, global warming caused by these emissions is the most serious human environmental problem. In the same year, the world's leading climatologists prepared a report for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, formed by the UN General Assembly, in which they concluded that greenhouse gas emissions lead to additional heating earth's surface. According to experts, while maintaining the current rate of warming in half a century, the planet can reach a temperature that mankind has not known for the entire period of its existence. In the late 90s. the categorical opinion about global warming has weakened, the point of view, primarily among scientists, that the exclusively anthropogenic origin of global warming and its reality has not been proven has become widespread.

FROM late XIX century, when the first meteorological stations appeared, systematic measurements of the surface air temperature were carried out. Over the past hundred-odd years of continuous meteorological measurements, a noticeable increase in the average temperature by about one degree has been noted. On fig. Table 20.1 shows data on variations in the globally averaged surface air temperature. Here, the average temperature for the period 1951-1980 is taken as the zero level. Global averaging implies averaging over all measurement points on the planet's surface; in addition, time averaging is carried out over a one-year interval. The given data on globally averaged temperature is an experimental basis confirming the problem of global warming.

From these huge deposits. Studies show that along with the gradual release of methane into the atmosphere, emissions of significant masses of methane are possible, which can lead to catastrophic consequences.

The rate of increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is about 0.5% per year. For methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides - approximately 1% per year. The concentration of chlorofluorocarbons is growing even faster. The amount of methane in the atmosphere has doubled in the last 200 years. The concentration of nitrogen oxides has doubled in less than 100 years. The content of carbon dioxide has almost doubled compared to the pre-industrial era. The concentration of a number of organic and inorganic compounds in the air, including artificially synthesized ones, has increased many times over.

If there were no greenhouse gases, then the temperature of the Earth would be more than 30 ° C lower. "In Chapter 12, an estimate of the temperature of the Earth in the absence of an atmosphere was given. According to this estimate, the average temperature of the Earth is about 255 K, which is much lower real average temperatures are 285-290 K. The presence of an atmosphere with infrared-absorbing greenhouse gases significantly changes the temperature balance.In Chapter 14, we considered the average radiation-heat balance known from numerous measurements. 29% of the energy is latent and sensible heat, which is 144% of the energy of the high-frequency solar radiation incident on the Earth.As noted above, there is no contradiction with the law of conservation of energy here, just between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, due to the greenhouse effect, counterflows of energy arise, which additionally heat the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth. zone 170% (67% - cloudless atmosphere and 103% - clouds) of energy from primary solar radiation. Estimates of the temperature of equivalent equilibrium radiating "gray" bodies give, respectively, T» 280 K for the Earth's surface and 290 K for the atmosphere. These estimates are close to real average temperatures, but a more accurate analysis should take into account many factors, in particular, the nonequilibrium of radiation, the processes of radiation, heat, momentum transfer, etc.

Earth's climate is determined not only by atmospheric processes. The ocean, the cryosphere are involved in climate formation

Ch. 20. The problem of global warming

In addition, we note that the sign of the change in planetary albedo at high temperatures has not yet been determined. In other words, it remains unclear whether cloudiness will increase or decrease with temperature.

In the case of the influence of a periodic external disturbance of even small amplitude, which has a resonant period, i.e., a period close to the time of transition between stationary states, a transition from one stationary state to another is possible steady state. Several astronomical global cycles are known that cause changes in the solar radiation flux, among them the main ones: precession of the Earth's rotation axis with a period of about 22,000 years; 000 years. It turned out that the period of change in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit is closest to the period of climate change on Earth. A model explaining climate change by astronomical causes was created in the 1920s. 20th century century Milanković. Theoretical calculations of periods of glaciation carried out using this model are in good agreement with the known experimental data.

During ice ages, the average temperature of the earth's surface decreased by about 5°C, the ocean level dropped by 100 m, the system of global ocean currents changed, and glaciers descended to the latitude of Moscow and Kiev. Scientists obtain information about the paleoclimate (i.e., the climate of previous eras) using wide range data. These include:

Temperature measurement in deep wells and restored
past surface temperature derivation from them;

Deep drilling core analysis, including in the ocean.
(Analysis of ice cores in Antarctica allows us to determine
not only the temperature, but also the content of carbon dioxide
yes in the atmosphere in previous periods. At the station
"Vostok" in 1970, drilling of a well was started, before
depths exceeding 3,600 m by the end of 1997. Analysis
core allowed to get detailed information oh glo
global climate changes over 420 thousand years.)
There is a stable relationship between level fluctuations
sea, temperature changes and variations in the content
greenhouse gases;

Ch. 20. The problem of global warming 465

I Reduction in the number of icebergs in North Atlantic. Decreasing sea ice thickness in the North Atlantic. Measurements of ice thickness carried out by a British submarine north of Greenland showed that the thickness of the ice had decreased from 6.7 to 4.5 m in ten years.

Reduction of the annual maximum ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic. Rising number of icebergs in the South Atlantic. An increase in temperature leads to irreversible changes in the ice cover in Antarctica. It is in recent years that the separation giant icebergs from ice cover. Warming leads to a significant reduction in floating ice shelves. This contraction occurs when glaciers break up and numerous icebergs form. Shrinking ice shelves do not cause sea level rise. With significant warming, the giant Ross and Filchner ice shelves may disappear. Further reduction of the ice cover may already lead to the reduction of inland glaciers. The disappearance of the barrier in the form of ice shelves will lead to sliding into the ocean and subsequent melting of the Antarctic glaciers.

Increase in the number of storms, floods in Europe, Africa, Asia. Scientists are faced with the problem of the reliability of these "evidence" of global warming. In order to obtain reliable instrumental data on temperature changes that would confirm or disprove global warming, some major international scientific experiments. In particular, it is planned to measure the speed of propagation of sound waves in sea ​​water. As you know, the speed of sound depends on temperature, therefore, by observing the propagation of sound between two points of the World Ocean for a long time, it is possible to determine the change in ocean water temperature. It is planned to use the section between Alaska and Novaya Zemlya as one such route, and it is planned to lay another route between the Pacific coast of the USA and the Hawaiian Islands. However latest project caused unexpected resistance from the defenders of the animal world: biologists suggested that powerful acoustic radiation could have an undesirable effect on whales and other marine animals. \

However, at present, the reasons for the change in the average temperature on the Earth's surface cannot be considered reliably established. There is no indisputable evidence that the increase in average temperature is a consequence of anthropogenic influence. A significant number of scientists adhere to the point of view that the observed change in the average temperature is mainly a manifestation of natural processes, and the anthropogenic contribution is assessed as insignificant. They believe that global temperatures are very weakly dependent on both changes in total solar radiation and the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The climate, in their opinion, depends mainly on the distribution of incoming solar energy, and not on its quantity, while changes in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 have little effect on this. Moreover, a number of researchers criticize the conclusions about global warming. This will be discussed below.

The complexity of obtaining reliable forecasts of climate change is due to a number of factors. The climate system has many feedback, which complicate consideration and have not yet been investigated. The contribution of anthropogenic phenomena must be assessed against the background of significant natural processes, many of which are not yet fully understood. This leads to the fact that estimates of changes in the average temperature on Earth give a significant spread> (Fig. 20.5, 20.6).

carbon cycle

The carbon cycle plays an important role in the climate system. In the carbon cycle are connected in a single chain essential components climate system - atmosphere, biota, ocean, lithosphere. Anthropogenic influence on the carbon cycle has also been studied quite well, and it is on the example of the carbon cycle that the “power” of biota and humans can be demonstrated in influencing natural cycles (Fig. 20.7).

Biota on land annually absorbs 10 2 Ggt of carbon from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (14% general content in the atmosphere), which is used in photosynthesis. During respiration, biota releases 50 Ggt of carbon in the form of carbon dioxide. The decomposition of plants supplies another 50 Ggt of carbon to the atmosphere. Thus, the terrestrial biota retains approximately 2 Ggt of carbon annually.

Ch. 20. The problem of global warming

The biosphere is changing very quickly under the influence of anthropogenic factors, which can also significantly affect regional and global climates.

Global warming could lead to catastrophic consequences on the planet. For example, a projected rise in sea level of 40-50 cm in the next 50 years will lead to flooding of the densely populated coastal regions of the planet. Only in China, an area inhabited by about 100 million people can be flooded. Huge densely populated areas of India, Bangladesh may also be flooded. According to forecasts, almost the entire territory of Holland will be flooded.

According to some estimates, some countries may benefit from global warming. For example, in Russia the climate may improve. An increase in surface temperature will cause an increase in evaporation from the surface of the seas and oceans. The climate on Earth will become more humid, there will be a humidification of the climate in arid regions Lower Volga, North Caucasus. The general warming will lead to the slow advance of the border of agriculture to the north. The zone of risky farming on the territory of our country will be reduced. However, the complexity of the feedbacks between the elements of the climate system makes such predictions extremely unreliable. It can be assumed that, along with these positive effects, negative consequences of global warming may appear on the territory of Russia.

An increase in carbon dioxide concentration will also lead to an increase in the yield of most cultivated plants. Numerous field and laboratory experiments on growing plants under conditions of high CO2 content have shown that an increase in carbon dioxide concentration contributes to faster plant growth, their biomass and yield. For example, according to estimates, the mass of forests in the United States has increased by 30% since 1950, which is probably caused by an increase in the concentration of CO2. Let us recall that V. I. Vernadsky called carbon dioxide a fertilizer. The increased concentration of CO2 is used by plants in the process of photosynthesis. This fact is probably genetically determined by the fact that the ancestors of modern plants arose and existed for a long time under conditions of CO2 concentration significantly exceeding the modern one. These are the possible and ambiguous consequences of global warming on the planet.

In conclusion of the chapter, we will briefly present objections to the conclusions about the reality of anthropogenic global warming.

Since the active components of solar radiation are absorbed in the upper atmosphere. Ivanov-Kholodny put forward a hypothesis, according to which a change in solar activity, primarily in the ultraviolet part of the radiation, leads to disturbances in the ozone layer (changes in concentration, temperature), which are transmitted to the underlying layers of the atmosphere. Thus, in this model, the role of the transfer element from upper atmosphere a layer of ozone plays to its lower layers. This is one of possible mechanisms effects of solar activity on the atmosphere and biosphere.

It should be noted that the most important greenhouse gas is water vapor, and its role in the system of solar-terrestrial relations has not been fully studied. Recently, new experimental data have been obtained indicating a special relationship between cloud cover (water) and solar activity. Tropical latitudes of the Earth receive about 2 times per year more heat than the rest of the earth's surface. The tropical part of the atmosphere contains most of the atmospheric water vapor. Therefore, the tropical zone is more energy-rich than the extratropical zones. Since atmospheric circulation ensures the transport of water vapor in the meridional direction, there is a mutual relationship between the tropical and extratropical zones. Solar activity and cosmic rays, causing the ionization of air masses at altitudes of 12-20 km, contribute to the formation of condensation nuclei, and then clouds. Cloudiness, in turn, changes the albedo, the conditions for the absorption of infrared radiation from the atmosphere and the earth's surface. Giant cosmic showers can activate this condensation mechanism even in the middle and lower troposphere. solar activity has characteristic periods, close to such atmospheric processes as Kelvin and Rossby waves, therefore, in the system solar radiation (plus cosmic rays) - atmosphere, the occurrence of solar-atmospheric resonance, enhanced by the condensation mechanism, is possible. Joint Russian-Indian rocket experiments in the equatorial part of the Indian Ocean confirm the solar-atmospheric resonance hypothesis. Thus, another mechanism has been proposed (albeit requiring further research), which explains the variability of the Earth's temperature natural processes Research by FIAN and 1DAO scientists confirms the important role of cosmic rays in atmospheric processes, despite the fact that the intensity

Chapter 20

Cosmic radiation is 5 orders of magnitude less than solar radiation. Cosmic rays, by ionizing the atmosphere, ensure the operation of the global electrical circuit in the atmosphere, the formation of lightning electricity and lightning discharges. Experimental data indicate a strong relationship between the intensity of cosmic rays and cloudiness. The observed changes in the temperature of the Earth's surface may be due to changes in the background cosmic radiation. By the way, by raising the accelerator on the plane into the ionosphere, you can increase the cloudiness and cause precipitation.

Measurements of the Earth's surface temperature are characterized by significant heterogeneities, the most striking uncertainty is the effect of urban "heat islands" - meteorologists from many countries provide convincing evidence of the influence of large cities, residential areas on surface temperature. Temperature increase in areas of large cities can reach 1-2 °С. Therefore, many meteorologists consider it more reliable to estimate temperature changes based on temperature measurements of the lower troposphere (up to 4 km), rather than surface temperatures. At present, scientists have more than 20-year lower troposphere temperature series obtained from satellite data and balloons, i.e. two independent ways. Satellite microwave radiation measurements (Microwave Sounder Unit) were carried out on the NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 satellites. Tropospheric temperature measurements, devoid of the uncertainties inherent in surface temperature measurements, show that from 1978 to 1995 the average temperature of the lower troposphere is decreasing! The slope of the trend lines over this period of time was -0.045 °С for satellite data and -0.06 °С for probe data per decade (Fig. 20.10). It should be noted, however, that the results of these measurements are also criticized and there is no generally accepted assessment of the reliability and accuracy of measurement data.

Sea level change. frequency of natural disasters. The most dramatic global warming effect is expected to come from rising sea levels. The predicted rise may be 1-2 m, which will lead to flooding of vast areas. The area inhabited by hundreds of millions of people may be flooded. However, based on space measurements sea ​​level changes

Chapter 20 The problem of global warming 479

already no doubt The decisions of the conference should become binding on all states after their ratification by the parliaments of most countries. Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries have committed themselves to reduce by 2008-2012. greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% of 1990 levels

In November 1998, Buenos Aires hosted international Conference on global warming of the member countries of the UN Convention on Climate Change. As the discussion showed, most states take a critical approach to the decisions of the Kyoto conference and are in no hurry to comply with the terms of the Kyoto Protocol. The United States, being the main source of thermal pollution, refused to sign the protocol. The Russian delegation supported the Kyoto agreements. Russia is not currently choosing a quota determined by it, and no industrial boom is foreseen in the coming years. Most developing countries, led by China and India, refuse to join the Kyoto agreements. In the countries of the "Third World" the point of view dominates that the industrialized countries are responsible for the current state of the atmosphere, and therefore they should bear the main costs of reducing emissions, creating and transferring new technologies to other countries. Previously, a way out of the existing difficult situation in the creation of international system purchase and sale of national emission quotas. However, on the way to creating such a system, there are a lot of economic, legal, social and other problems, and many conflicting interests and aspirations have to be coordinated. Most European countries support the Kyoto Protocol. The complexity and inconsistency of the problem can be illustrated, in particular, by the fact that the current US administration, headed by George W. Bush, opposes the signing of the Kyoto Protocol and the position of the previous administration. However, at present, discussions about global warming continue on international level, during the negotiations it is supposed to establish upper limits for the concentration of emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases for the coming years.

The material of this chapter shows that the problem of correlation between natural and induced climate changes human activity cannot be considered resolved. Natural climate fluctuations can mask the greenhouse effect. The question rests on the degree of sensitivity of the global climate to external influences, to the intensity of direct

Ch. 20. The problem of global warming

Or feedbacks, many of which are currently little explored. Hence, all predictive climate models contain many uncertainties, which cannot be avoided at the current level of knowledge - this will require many years of additional research. The system of geospheres and the atmosphere can respond to the greenhouse effect in a complex non-linear way. For successful solution The problems of correlation between natural and anthropogenic climate changes should be studied in many geophysical processes on the Earth and in the Space-Sun-Earth system.